Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[vollkan]

Crossed with Gemelli.

To the best of my knowledge, there is typically a very small window for discussion during twilight, correct? I'd feel better about the setup if we had more time to discuss, even if the final decision isn't made until twilight.

No decision should be made in my opinion. We can (and I have) directed Orig to our most desired candidates but we should not give him an absolute instruction.

Why will the mafia NK Orig (providing we do not blanketly ban him from NKing)? If Orig is scum, the major threat to him is the mafia. His goal, therefore, is to eliminate the mafia.

This assumes, of course, that Orig is NOT mafia. I am still not convinced that that's a safe bet, although the fact that he's willing to let us direct his action tonight means that we should know one way or the other tomorrow morning.

I refuse to support directing Orig. If he is mafia, there is a hidden SK who can only hope to succeed here by defeating the mafia.

Totally understandable, as I've said. I'm holding out some hope that this feeling is based primarily on my predecessor's play. I've tried my best to be an active scumhunter for the team. If something *I've* posted rings false/scummy, I'd appreciate hearing about what, specifically, it is.

Mostly your predecessor. And some of this stuff regarding Orig.

I am still not swayed by the arguments against Dybeck

What specifically? Here we have a player who is unswervingly pushing for the lynch of a confirmed vig or SK. If he is mafia, he has motivations for both. His reasoning is deeply flawed and, as such, it looks like he is grasping to get rid of Orig.

[Gemelli]

Here we have a player who is unswervingly pushing for the lynch of a confirmed vig or SK.

OK, here's where I expose the depths of my n00bidity:

If orig was a mafia (not vig or SK), and delivered the kill confirmation to the mod, I have been assuming that this would trigger the tracker result reported by AlyG.

If that is NOT true, then I will have to adjust my thinking, as I have been assuming that orig being a vig or SK isn't a given. If my assumption is correct, I think that the "deeply flawed" characterization is reaching. It's hard to fault someone for pushing a bandwagon against someone who confirmed killing a pro-town role. That being said, I am not willing to throw out the "mafia targetting SK" possibility. I just want to weigh it against all of the other possibilities.

As far as not/directing orig tonight: I think that NOT directing him will provide limited value to the town tomorrow. But I agree that leaving him as a wild card gives the Mafia a more difficult choice to make tonight. I suppose that as long as there is some posted consensus in place as to good targets for him, that's really the best we can hope for.

That being said, my #1 and #2 choices would be Oman and Elias (who continues to post in his other games with alarming regularity while leaving us high and dry). Subject to change as we get closer to a lynch vote, obviously.

[vollkan]

If orig was a mafia (not vig or SK), and delivered the kill confirmation to the mod, I have been assuming that this would trigger the tracker result reported by AlyG.

I may have given you the wrong impression. When there is a tracker or the likes, typically mafia are asked to "specify who will make the kill". It is not by who submits the choice.

I was referring to this:

originality wrote:

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

Good point, combining this with the no-cop claim, I'd find it much more likely that you are SK or vig and not mafia.

[vollkan]

As far as not/directing orig tonight: I think that NOT directing him will provide limited value to the town tomorrow. But I agree that leaving him as a wild card gives the Mafia a more difficult choice to make tonight. I suppose that as long as there is some posted consensus in place as to good targets for him, that's really the best we can hope for.

The exact way I would like this to be done is for each player to post a miniature scumdar thing, like what I did with the %s.

I want it to be as informative as possible without being clear instructions. Orig will have to work out whose suspicions to privilege based on the suspicions of other people, etc. and it will be difficult for him, but that is what he has to do IF he chooses to NK.

The wild card effect is too valuable to get rid of.

[Gemelli]

I was referring to this:

originality wrote:

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

Good point, combining this with the no-cop claim, I'd find it much more likely that you are SK or vig and not mafia.

I think that is a reasonable *argument*, yes. I'm just not ready to jump in and slap the "confirmed" label on it just yet. But knowing that the mafia are allowed to decide who makes the kill does make it seem less likely that originality is Mafia.

The exact way I would like this to be done is for each player to post a miniature scumdar thing, like what I did with the %s.

Since this is exactly what I did in my first substantial post in this game, I concur I'll have to come back to it tomorrow morning (tomorrow comes early), but I'll update my own scumdar ratings as soon as I can.

[vollkan]

I think that is a reasonable *argument*, yes. I'm just not ready to jump in and slap the "confirmed" label on it just yet. But knowing that the mafia are allowed to decide who makes the kill does make it seem less likely that originality is Mafia.

No, he is not confirmed unmafia. He may well have claimed vig in the hopes of either outing the vig or proving there is a SK to his buddies. That said, this is a risky gambit since it makes him a certain NK target, in contrast to claiming RB or something.

[Gemelli]

I take it back; I'll post my updates now:

Town
------
Vollkan -- 70% town odds
shaft.ed -- 65% town odds
AlyG (tracker claim) -- 60% town odds

(FWIW, I think it highly likely that Vollkan and shaft.ed are the same alignment.)

Unsure
--------
Lucienne -- 55% town odds
dybeck -- 50% either way
Elias_the_thief -- 55% scum odds

Scummy
----------
Orig (vig claim) -- 60% scum odds (stock is climbing towards town)
Oman -- 75% scum odds

[vollkan]

I take it back; I'll post my updates now:

Town
------
Vollkan -- 70% town odds
shaft.ed -- 65% town odds
AlyG (tracker claim) -- 60% town odds

(FWIW, I think it highly likely that Vollkan and shaft.ed are the same alignment.)

Unsure
--------
Lucienne -- 55% town odds

dybeck -- 50% either way

Elias_the_thief -- 55% scum odds

Scummy
----------
Orig (vig claim) -- 60% scum odds (stock is climbing towards town)
Oman -- 75% scum odds

Good. That is exactly what I was talking about.

Bolded:

FWIW, mafia commonly put their partners in a mid-range position. You can't get much more mid-range than 50%. This may become important down the track so I am just noting it here.

[dybeck]

Can I make one thing clear?

I think Streeflo is doing an excellent job. He's been a faultless mod all the way through, which is why I'm sure there are three mafia in this game. Only a wildly incompetent mod would put a broken setup together with only two mafia.

However, it is possible that a first time mod would get the balance wrong.

[vollkan]

I think Streeflo is doing an excellent job. He's been a faultless mod all the way through, which is why I'm sure there are three mafia in this game.

Only a wildly incompetent mod would put a broken setup together with only two mafia.

However, it is possible that a first time mod would get the balance wrong.

Not true. At all. I have seen it on other occasions as well. It is not a "broken" set up. In Mini 467 my partner made it to 2:1 LYLO and if he hadn't made a silly error we would almost certainly had won.

That's enough grumbling by me about 467, the point is that whilst 2 mafia is more difficult, it certainly is not "game-breaking". Implicit in what you said, Dybeck, is that IF Streeflo put in only 2 mafia THEN Streeflo is incompetent.

I entirely disagree with this and I have a real problem with you circumstantially calling Streeflo incompetent.

[dybeck]

Dybeck, two questions, if Orig is the SK then who would you peg as the mafia?
If Orig is mafia, who would you peg as the SK and other mafia?

Yes I too would like to hear something from dybeck other than originality must die. There are at least 3 scum in this game and we have yet to find any.

I'm assuming that since he is lining up to defend him with misrepresentation and lies in the mathematics, that shaft.ed is a possible other mafia. He's misrepresented me on several occasions, and posted mathematics that he knows to be wrong (#637) to make it look like I'm incorrect, or somehow not hunting scum. Vollkan might be the other, or he might just be following shaft.ed's lead to appear helpful.

If we mislynch, and originality is mafia, WE LOSE. It's worth noting that two people in this town would want that to happen. I'd urge the town not to get swept along on a tide.

There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch.

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

The problem is, that only these people I believe to be scum are posting, which means that as a block, they seem to be discrediting everything I say.

But I don't want any of this to dilute the core message, which is that originality is lying and he does have to die.

[dybeck]

I don't think Streeflo is incompetent at all.

Because I don't think there are only two mafia.

[vollkan]

Oh dear Dybeck. When you're in a hole....

I'm assuming that since he is lining up to defend him with misrepresentation and lies in the mathematics, that shaft.ed is a possible other mafia. He's

1 misrepresented

me on several occasions, and posted

2 mathematics that he knows to be wrong (#637) to make it look like I'm incorrect,

or

3 somehow not hunting scum.

Vollkan might be the other, or he might just be following shaft.ed's lead to appear helpful.

1) Point me to these misrepresentations.
2) The bulk of the mathematics has been perfectly sound and very much in favour of not lynching Orig. You are focusing on one slip in one post.
3) No. You were very actively hunting Orig as a SK. I don't believe Orig is SK. This was you hunting someone who could be a SK but is very likely vig and you are ignoring the actual hunting of mafia, other than your latest insinuations about shaft.ed and myself.

If we mislynch, and originality is mafia, WE LOSE. It's worth noting that two people in this town would want that to happen. I'd urge the town not to get swept along on a tide. There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch.

Completely wrong!
We do not lose as a fact if Orig is mafia and we mislynch.
All of this is assuming 5:3:1.
If Orig is mafia,
Mislynch = 4:3:1.
Mafia NK = 3:3:1 (in wcs)
SK NK = 3:2:1 (SK is going to target mafOrig since that is the only way that SK can hope to win)
D3 = 3:2:1. Yucky, but not a LOSS.

If we lynch Orig, we are 5:3 or 5:3 if he is vig or SK, which is more likely than him being mafia. That means the mafia NK puts us in LYLO.

If we lynch mafia today, we will most likely be at either 3:2 (LYLO wcs where Orig vig/SKs a town), 4:3 (LYLO, where Orig does nothing) or 4:1 (Best. Where Orig hits a mafia).

Dybeck is completely wrong.

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

And it could just be the case that Orig IS the vig...

The problem is, that only these people I believe to be scum are posting, which means that as a block, they seem to be discrediting everything I say.

Why do you believe us to be scum? I am discrediting you because *gasp* you are wrong.

But I don't want any of this to dilute the core message, which is that originality is lying and he does have to die.

Your argument that he is lying has been refuted. I don't like your phrase "have to die".

[AlyG]

Ok guys i'm going to do a quick analysis of players and show who i think they are:

Town

Shaft.ed

- has been very pro-town in my eyes and is a very good analyser an poster. he hasn't done anything recently scummy so far this game. Was a bit quiet during Day 1 but has redeemed himself and been active day 2.

Vollkan:

- has been a very active poster and has contributed largely to the discussion. he doesn't strike me as very suspicious but i'm not entirely sure if he's town or not. But his positives outweigh the negatives so i believe there is a better chance of him being town than scum.

Unsure

Lucienne

- I haven't had much of a redaing on her because of her inactivity but she hasn't done anything

MAJORLY

scummy so i can't really classify her.

Elias_The_Thief

- Been way to inactive and during Day 1 contributed to very little. I also don't like how heppromised some content on page 7 and 15 and never folowed them up.

Originality:

Now as you guys know i have been VERY aggressive against Orig now the only reason that i'm not screaming for his lynch is because of his cliam. I'm not sure whether to believe him or not because he killed one of our most pro-town players but his role-claim was afairly targetable one. if he had claimed townie i'd have had a vote on him 10 pages ago. I'm unsure of his role so he's in my unsure list.

Gemelli:

Relatively new and i can't really read him because he;s only postes for a few pages. he has not done much worth noting but he has been fairly active.

Scum

Dybeck:

- I already have a HOS on her and this is my reading on her: (This is from an analysis on her on page 23)

Dybeck, you have done some very weird plays during Day 2 such as voting shaft.ed for saying "Oh great we may have a serial killer." It isn't scummy it's an observation! You are also very eager with your votes e.g. after i claimed you immediately voted originality while completely ignoring the other roles that he could possibly be. You also have overlooked lots of information before posting e.g. Asking Originality why he killed CarrotCake when he had already posted his reason a page ago. Overall, he has been playing really weird and IMO scummy

As you can see she has been playing very weirdly and mostly her reasons for voting are very weird. E.g. Voting Shaft.ed for saying "we may have a serial killer."

Oman:

- Probably in my eyes the most scummy player in the game. he has been bandwagonning the whole game. Whenever somene changes their vote and throws around suspicion he is always there to follow-up and always votes for the same person straight away. he is a big vote hopper and always jumps on the person getting suspicion. He seems to be trying to keep pressure on other players which is scummy. her are some examples of bandwagoning:

we should lynch the ones not here because a) eliminates useless townies or b) might be mafia so its a win-win

vote lucienne

This post was what started the suspicion on Originality. He got to 3 serious votes on the first page and then i gave him an FOS and held back from giving him to many votes so early:

(1) That's better logic. Judge and vote for someone after they have talked. Not if they haven't even confirmed their PM!

(2) Whatever. But if you're seen online it would seem your trying to draw attention from yourself.

Originality, your push for a quicklynch on someone who hasn't even confirmed their PM really worries me. It got me to believe that you may be a scum trying to draw attention from yourself and trying to avoid getting lynched.

Then, when you got voted for for that reason you seemed to completely change your thoughts. Maybe you realised you were under pressure and tried to keep yourself safe and get on peole's good side by agreeing with them.

However after your change of thoughts your vote still standed. Which was also suspicious. I don't know whether to vote you or not since your already at -3 so for now i will FOS: Originality This will probably change to a vote.

That's it, those are my thoughts. sorry about the triple post guys. I'm only new and i don't know how to put more than 1 quote in a post at once >_< can someone tell me how?
_________________

Note how i hold back from giving him to many votes? Oman then comes and in his 2nd post immediately adds a 4th vote to Orig in this post:

Okay.

1) Originality looks BAD! Contradiction, eager to lynch, LEAPS to defence. Almost worth a -2 vote.

2) If Originality is scum I'd be expecting a coach in there. But everyone looked clean.

3)

Vote: orginality

I just want to see what pops up scum should jump on him

This is blatant bandwagoning, he was just trying to keep severe pressure on someone so early in the game. he came under fire for this.

More examples:

In page 15 when Vollkan did a long analysis on me Oman was right there to immediately jump on.

Hello everybody! First thoughts: Stupid, stupid Ryan and yuck! an SK.

Time for the reread post (written as I read through):
Page 1:
Originality gets an FoS for his weird lynching thing, though maybe Elias is a bit strong, thinking it is L-3 on the first page.

Page 2:
Similar possible opportunism from Oman who votes Orig; he explains his vote even less. FoS: Oman Lucienne gets some points from me for saying she agrees on Orig but for also rightly questioning Oman’s vote. Same with BS. Same with Vamp. Same with shaft.ed. I don’t like Orig in #44. Oman has presented a trap; I have encountered this before and it was by a vanilla. Elias votes Oman for being opportunistic; a little hypocrisy methinks.

Page 3:
FoS: Aly His argument against Orig seems very contrived to me. Lucienne mixes up Oman for Spurg as a vote reason; I don’t like. Shaft.ed points this out.

Page 4:
Discussion about Vamp’s lurking. *yawns*

Page 5:
In #105 Aly prods Vamp for opinions, specifically on Oman and BS, which strikes me as odd. BS claims “something” non-vanilla. Don’t like Aly hopping on Vamp’s wagon. More FoS: AlyG

Page 6:
Oooh… FoS: Orig I do not like his Vamp vote, since he says Vamp is suspicious when Vamp is just being accused of lurkiness. I also do not like AlyG then posting a “Don’t lynch Vamp yet, but I will be fine with it in the next weeks”; I thought this was about lurking not suspicion. Vote: AlyG

Page 7:
Vamp is AlyG’s main suspect…why? The vote was pressure for lurking.

Page 8:
AlyG swaps back to Originality after Lucinne votes Orig. Oman queries why AlyG is vote hopping and his answer doesn’t explain much.

Page 9:
Carrot votes AlyG!! Finally someone notices AlyG’s scumminess. Lucienne says Carrot’s post is “interesting” and then votes BS for non-content; Lucienne makes no real comment on AlyG. Shaft and Oman get townie points for attacking Orig’s fishing. Post #219 by AlyG is gold:

i've already explained why i kept my vote on Vampeaneze. Please re-read my posts. It was so he would remain pressured and be more inclined to defend himself.”

Then WHY did you accept Vamp’s lynch? Then AlyG deflects onto Oman.
BS looks very newbie to me (partially influenced by my views of BS meta). I don’t like the shift to BS

Page 10:
I don’t like the vote by Oman. Shafted and Orig get “townie brownies” for going against the lynch of BS.

Page 11:
AlyG supports getting rid of Orig today and BS tomorrow; a bit of a two-for-one….as Shaft.ed then points out. #267 AlyG really goes Inquisition on dybeck for not joining the Orig wagon.

Page 12:
Carrot rightly points out AlyG’s “well s/he did it too”. Good grief, AlyG then tries to deflect suspicion onto Carrot as Luci’s scumbuddy. I don’t like really think Oman’s vote for Ryan is persuasive.

Page 13:
Don’t like Dybeck’s vote either. FoS: Oman for a contrived case against Ryan. Orig and BS switch to Ryan. AlyG places a HoS.

Page 14:
Orig immediately jumps to defending himself. HoS: Orig Oman gives AlyG townie brownies…kind of like giving Hitler the Nobel Peace Prize. FoS: Oman
AlyG’s first post looks to me like she is scum and didn’t NK BS in the hopes that we will lynch BS today. I know how WIFOM this is from me, but her faux exasperation about it and the fact she immediately suggests we “ate his claim” does this to me. She takes it back, realising he never claimed; doesn’t change her immediate response though. Shaft rightly FoSes AlyG on the basis of Carrot’s NK. AlyG’s #343 is so damned WIFOM. Orig’s voting logic is messed up and defensive of AlyG.

Now, all in all,
Elias_the_thief: Has done nothing to arouse my suspicion, but I may do a reread on him just to be sure.
Oman: Started off well but became increasingly contrived and is now defending AlyG. From the above, I gave HoS: Oman
AlyG: Scum. Plain and simple. I have already voted but I will put it down here again for mod’s convenience and because I want to vote him again. Vote: AlyG
Dr. Blackstrike: Newbish. I don’t think is scum.
Lucienne: Not particularly notable but a potential scumbuddy with AlyG based on earlier stuff.
originality: On one hand, AlyG has been rabidly against Orig. On the other, Orig’s latest play is defending himself and AlyG. FoS: originality
shaft.ed: Town.
dybeck: Similar to Elias.

Vollkan puts a case against me and then about 10 posts later here comes Oman:

Sigh, this is not going to look good after vollkan got into me for defending but:

Vote AlyG

That post sat all wrong with me. It was basically saying "look, doctor blackstrike is still alive, lets lynch him" when there are many possibilities:

1) He could be scum lieing to us (Possible)

2) He could be a doc, protecting the wrong person (Possible)

3) He could have forgotten to send in a night choice (unlikely)

4) He could have been RBed (unlikely, though possible)

5) He could be any other role like a cop/hider/tracker that we don't see the results of (possible (likely))

6) The scum didn't kill him in the hope that some would say what you did, or to say it themselves (likely)

So there are 6 options, and you only looked at one.
_________________

See? shaft.ed also caught on to this:

You're right it doesn't look good. This entire game you've been jumping from one wagon to the next. Now you see vollkan enter the game and provide a strong case against AlyG and the first thing you do is jump aboard. FoS Oman

As you can see he has been vote hopping and bandwagonninga nd i'm sure you could find more. Overall i will soon be voting for either Oman or Dybeck.

[AlyG]

there are quite a few spelling mistakes there if anything doesn't make sense tell me please.

[vollkan]

Thankyou for your contribution AlyG.

In case you missed it whilst you were writing, a little exchange between Dybeck and myself just occurred. I say this because it is important in that it demonstrates particular scumminess on Dybeck's part.

Overall i will soon be voting for either Oman or Dybeck.

I have favoured Dybeck for some time now and the latest thing has just bolstered this some more. I would really prefer we lynched Dybeck rather than Oman today. I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman.

In #511, Oman voted Dybeck (3rd on wagon) and in #673 dybeck said he thinks Oman could be SK or "anyone". Neither of these has been particularly strong which makes me think of possible distancing. They were both on the Ryan wagon.

If anyone finds any other points hinting at possible relations or lack thereof between them, please raise them.

[AlyG]

Thanks for that Vollkan i'll look into it. Now i want to get an idea of what might happen during the night. So granted, Orig is a vig (who we have instructed not to kill anyone during night) then there will be 1-2 NK's. There will only be 2 if there is indeed a SK. So the mafia i believe will have to choose between killing me or Orig. Now, i believe i have the greatest chance of being killed because if i get a successful track i can determine at least 1 member of the mafia possibly. Tonight, Orig is basically a townie (he hopefully won't kill) so i think i'm the biggest threat to them so i probably will be NK'ed. So i have to survive night if i am to tell everyone my tracking results. What should happen then? Should i be protected by doc or hope for the best?

[vollkan]

Thanks for that Vollkan i'll look into it. Now i want to get an idea of what might happen during the night. So granted, Orig is a vig (who we have instructed not to kill anyone during night) then there will be 1-2 NK's. There will only be 2 if there is indeed a SK. So the mafia i believe will have to choose between killing me or Orig. Now, i believe i have the greatest chance of being killed because if i get a successful track i can determine at least 1 member of the mafia possibly. Tonight, Orig is basically a townie (he hopefully won't kill) so i think i'm the biggest threat to them so i probably will be NK'ed. So i have to survive night if i am to tell everyone my tracking results. What should happen then? Should i be protected by doc or hope for the best?

No, we haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution. If Orig could potentially cut down the scum to 2 members, that raises the spectre for them that they could lose their remaining members on D3 (by lynch and another Origging)

For this reason, it seems most likely that the mafia will NK Orig and that you will be left alive.

Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one. Immediately, I see it being sensible for doc to protect you. If only because then if you track someone and they go for Orig, you could out the doc inadvertently, but let me think on this because I am not decided.

[Oman]

I just want to make it noted that AlyG is only going after me since the bandwagon formed on me.

Hypocrit much?

[shaft.ed]

OK dybeck's recent post has pretty much cemented my opinions of him. I don't think I have enough time to get a reply on it up right now, but vollkan has already pretty much shot his argument to hell.

I really want a clear discussion of the orig situation as I'm really not happy with it right now.

I personally do not want orig to kill anyone tonight, but I see the need to maintain the threat to the mafia. So if we want to keep the threat of a kill open we can either direct the kill or inform originality as to what we think of everyone. I propose both methods have their own faults.

First if we direct the kill absolutely then the mafia know exactly what orig will be doing in the night. This is bad because if it is of no threat to them they can ignore his play. Also bad because if it's a pro-scum move and orig is scum he'd be more than happy to do it.

If we do not direct the kill this threatens the mafia a lot more since they have no idea who he will be killing and are left with much more difficult desicions in the night. However, if orig is in fact not town aligned he can easily select someone that is on the scummy side of people's lists but not scum and get away with that act. So I'm not sure this is a great way to go about it either.

What I propose is that each of us makes a list of their top four candidates for NK in order including No Kill if that is what you prefer. Limit orig to picking from the three most popular options. Thus it is a hybrid directed but not 100% certain kill. This will effectively make the mafia unsure of who will be killed, but also give the town more piece of mind that their will is being carried out. And I'd also suggest that once a lynch candidate becomes more obvious we make two lists one for "if they come up scum" and one for "if they come up town."

How does this work for everyone?

My list as of now is

1. No Kill
2. dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias

[shaft.ed]

Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one.

Dude I'm all for letting orig live through today, but Doc protection? You've got to be kidding me. One of the main reasons I think it's worth keeping him alive is because even if he's scum, he's very likely to cause crossfire.

FoS vollkan

[Lucienne]

Wow. Six pages in a few days. I'm on it.

[Lucienne]

shaf.ted is right. Vig killing, especially if town is lynched today, could be fatal.

I considered them all, and eliminated them one by one. I've stated the reasons for eliminating most of them. There simply is no other role that originality can have to my mind. If you lynch me today and leave him alive, I'd urge you to at least PLEASE get him to agree to have his kill directed.

I'm thoroughly puzzled that you so blatantly attacked orig here, and trusted AlyG,

and

didn't consider other power-roles. Why are they so unlikely? I'm not seeing it. I see this actions from dybeck as scummy.

I find myself agreeing with his conclusions more often than not. Currently focused on originality and shaft.ed as suspects. My odds on him: 60% town, 40% scum.

Interesting defense of dybeck, in a subtle way. Are you saying you agree with his attacks on originality?

I find it interesting Gemelli finds almost half the group more suspicious of dybeck, including Elias amongst others. I find Elias more lurkish than scummy (I realise I'm not one to talk).

And Gemelli, wow, it looks like I'm on your top list for scum. And probably mafia, nonetheless. Well, here's what I've been saying about how I can't be mafia: I'd not claim vig. I'd claim something safer for me instead, and if someone counterclaimed me It would be OK, because if I got lynched I'd have partners who would now know one more powerrole to kill that night.

WIFOM (therefore completely invalid.)

I dare anyone to name one "townie" thing she did. All she's done is FoS everyone that others already talked about. Very passive playing. I am very surprised no one has noticed this before. Its no little thing either, she has posted the bare minimum, containing the bare minimum information for her not to be prodded. It has become even laughable at times, when everyone is jumping on a serious bandwaggon for concrete reasons, shes just all "Oh, yes, I do find him sort of suspicious, but I dunno. I'll FoS someone else who everybody also thinks is suspicious, though I'm not too sure." Absolutely perfect example of someone trying not to invoke attention. Even the FoSes have been sparce. And following my logic, three of those are scum: Elias, Lucienne, dybeck, Gemelli, and maybe Vollkan or Oman. I think Lucienne is likely. I want to hear everyone's thoughts.

I would highly disagree that I am posting the "bare minimum" of content. Can you show me some examples of where my suspicious have not been clear in any sense? Good luck.

To clarify - my main suspicion is Oman. Reasons - major flip-flopping and bandwagonning.

[quote="Gemelli"I am still having a hard time reconciling that N1 CarrotCake kill choice with a pro-town alignment.[/quote]

Exactly. The fact of the matter is that it makes far more sense as an anti-town kill - a lurker unlikely to be protected.

I like how shaf.ted says Oman has been "all over the place." Definitely spot on.

I have to go now, but I will be back to finish this after dinner.

[Gemelli]

I find myself agreeing with his conclusions more often than not. Currently focused on originality and shaft.ed as suspects. My odds on him: 60% town, 40% scum.

Interesting defense of dybeck, in a subtle way. Are you saying you agree with his attacks on originality?

Yes, that's it exactly. Going after CC struck me as an anti-town play. Dybeck had seemed to be the person most strongly advocating that position. I was a little surprised to find that perspective roundly attacked by others.

That being said: new day, new perspectives.

Unfortunately, today is going to be jammed at work, so I'll be limited in how much I can post. You get one novel from me this afternoon, and then it's back to the salt mines. Alas.

First, I wanted to post the raw notes I took when I joined the game. I'll leave it up to the rest of you as to whether I would have gone to the trouble of creating this if I was scum. But I wanted you to see some of the thought process that's gone into my previous posts.

My main goal in the notetaking was to track relationships among the players in the game over time -- who supported/suspected whom, etc. From re-reading them, I can see that I jumped to some conclusions early and allowed those conclusions to influence my opinions. And some of those opinions were based on the "perfect" information I had, but most of you didn't, about day 1 (since I knew that all of the dead were vanilla townies during my initial read).

I did another skim of pages 14-28 shortly after I woke up today, and let me just say that I do NOT recommend reading a Mafia thread first thing in the morning without coffee. Ow ow ow. But a few things jumped out at me that hadn't earlier.

First, my opinion on vollkan is slightly less certain than it was last night. I admire the length and depth of his posts, but some of the basic premises underlying the arguments seem to shift around a bit without comment. Some rushed examples: post 439, CC's later posts were "pure brilliance" vs. post 638, commenting that CC wasn't really all that active. Post 598, I seem "very pro-town" vs. post 638, I am "55% scummy."

In the latter case, there are two major points I've really pushed in between those two posts: (a) continuing to discuss the "originality might still be scum" theory, and (b) trying to poke at what I saw as holes in the logic driving the "dybeck must be scum" theory. Apparently one of those things caused vollkan's opinion of me to change significantly. I honestly don't see how either of those actions is especially scummy; I am trying to gather as much information as possible so that the town can make the most informed decision possible. Then again, I am coming from a perspective where my pro-town alignment is a given, so I am almost certainly missing something. I'd like to hear some other people's thoughts. Meanwhile,

mFoS on vollkan

. He is either a strong asset to the town, or a very dangerous scum. Still leaning towards the former, but there it is.

As far as Dybeck goes, I do agree with him that lynching originality would not necessarily be a bad move for the town. I strongly DISAGREE with him that a no-lynch vote tonight would be a pro-town move in any way. I just don't see how no-lynch helps anyone except the Mafia. So I'm less inclined to support him than I was yesterday. His statement that "If we mislynch, and originality is mafia, WE LOSE" didn't do him any favors, either, though I think all pro-town players would agree that we'd rather not be at 3:2:1 on D3.

On the re-read, I did pick up what might be subtle hints from Dybeck's earlier posts suggesting a possible power role. But barring a roleclaim from him that confirms my suspicion, I am tentatively willing to support him as a lynch target.

In summary, no change on my opinions on shaft.ed, Oman, AlyG, or Elias. I'd pull my rating on originality down to 55% scum, tweak dybeck to 55% scum, pull lucienne up to 60% town, and drop volkann back to 60% town.

Much-delayed lunchtime!

[Gemelli]

What I propose is that each of us makes a list of their top four candidates for NK in order including No Kill if that is what you prefer. Limit orig to picking from the three most popular options. Thus it is a hybrid directed but not 100% certain kill. This will effectively make the mafia unsure of who will be killed, but also give the town more piece of mind that their will is being carried out. And I'd also suggest that once a lynch candidate becomes more obvious we make two lists one for "if they come up scum" and one for "if they come up town."

I like this idea a lot, assuming that originality's choice is based on the top four of our

aggregated

choices. In other words, if players A, B, and C appear on everyone's lists, and player D appears only on 1-2 players' lists, I would not expect him to target player D.

My list:

1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. dybeck
4. Elias