Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[northsidegal]

Votecount 2.10

Ydrasse

.............

(3):

Almost50 (1156), Titus (1161), Menalque (1360)

Menalque

............

(3):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102), Ydrasse (1438)

Something_Smart

.....

(2):

Raya36 (1408), Fredrick A Campbell (1478)

Montosh

.............

(1):

Umlaut (1382)

Raya36

..............

(1):

Something_Smart (1519)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Snowblaze, Eevee (1491)

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

[Ydrasse]

ugh

[Ydrasse]

i don’t see a place where anyone is willing to flip off of me at this point.

my scum game was simply TOO STRONG sin that last one to ignore

[Something_Smart]

Or you switched your vote because you realized Mae was going down and you decided to bus to get town-cred.

Where is the evidence that Mohab was going down? Snowblaze was ahead before I voted, iirc.

[Menalque]

Why are you SRing me again, ydrasse?

[Ydrasse]

it’s more of a feeling that one of you OR a50 is mafia fmpov because i don’t see montosh or raya as scum. leaving rce and s_s i think id vote s_s everytime but at this point it isn’t happening

[Menalque]

Okay but can you flesh that out for me

Why do you feel that I’m scum for instance or if I’m not that A50 is?

[Ydrasse]

yeah sure, give me a bit when i’m not on mobile

[Montosh]

Attempting to cause suspicion to fall on one specific player.

I mean I'm just gonna echo S_S here I don't really know what else I'm supposed to be doing. Like because you think it's too focused on someone I think is scum. If we lynch scum today then we win the game.

[Montosh]

Snowblaze, you’re online, do you think that’s crazy?

Well, firstly I think I'm not the best person to ask, but...

No. I'm starting to come round to the idea that there's actually quite a good chance of bussing. I don't want that to be the case, because I'd like to think I was towny enough under pressure to not have a nearly-all-town wagon on me.

But it makes sense. I'll elaborate tomorrow when I have more time.

Okay. Here’s what I was thinking. It was pretty clear yesterday by a certain point that the wagons were me/Mohab, and that wasn’t likely to change. If I’d been eliminated yesterday Mohab would almost certainly have been next. So if scum successfully push my elimination they’ve got one miselimination, they still have to confirm five townies and they look bad for pushing the town counterwagon to scum.

But if they bus their team-mate, they’re sacrificing the opportunity to miseliminate me, but my wagon then looks terrible without scum associated with it and the scum get plenty of towncred because “the setup punishes bussing, there’s no way there was scum on this wagon”.

So yes, this is all fairly sound as far as I can tell. The only issue I have with this idea is that it assumes that scum think a Mae lynch was inevitable the next day. I mean it certainly would have been a likely scenario but it wouldn't have been the first town v town Day 1 in history and some people might have thought that was still the case. So scum might do this, but it'd definitely be a risk. I'm not it's super clear cut.

[Montosh]

I'm not seeing any reason not to lynch Menalque here. Yes maybe both scum bussed. It's not impossible. But I still think there are two other very likely scenarios, where it's 1v1 or both scum on snow. And I think in either of those, Menalque is an extremely good candidate for scum.

[Ydrasse]

Okay but can you flesh that out for me

Why do you feel that I’m scum for instance or if I’m not that A50 is?

okay so.

part of it is poe; raya and montosh aren't an active part of mine atm, and leaving you/a50/s_s/rce. of which, i feel that... s_s is most likely scum, if only because like i've said a) i refuse to think mafia is 3/3 on a wagon and b) i don't think raya is scum. (though to be fair i've not reread her in a while but i haven't had any reason to do that fmpov). by default that means it's one of you/a50/rce.

i think i've already explained enough why i sred a50 earlier on. rereading over rce going through this, while a lot of this slot doesn't stick out to me i find myself liking posts like 994, 997 1007 and... that's about it honestly looking through d2. there's nothing that really sticks about rce that makes me want to eliminate them except:

a) the weird setup speculation that they did at the first beginning of the game wherein they were talking about if scum could escape (176 and 178)

b) 1353. i think that the eventual way rce accepted a50's hard tr could be a way to make a rce/a50 team look more natural and not just them going hard to bat for one another the entirety of the day. but even then i think the half-hearted effort before just saying "yeah i don't remember pairings" is more towny than anything else.

so that leaves you. who i feel is like... running through a list of things that just pile on the list of things that scum does blatantly in the hopes of it being townread because it is Too Blatant. the hard push on snowblaze d1 (where, i know you said you weren't pushing the case super hard but i feel you were invested enough to ask for people's votes and also ask them to change it back which fmpov seems to imply you were pushing it fairly hard), the self-vote in an effort to ~help town resolve you which is entirely counterproductive to actually helping town if you're town and you know that. i dunno. your lategame to me just has this feeling wherein you're trying to get the votes shuffled off of you. 1441 + 1461+ 1471 being some examples of that.

idk. you're just weirdly dissonant in the sort of defeatist tones of "yeah if i'm wrong vote me out tomorrow, or you can just resolve my slot today (as you did earlier), i'm not even really sure in my reads" and still providing a lot of theory and determination in your views on where scum might've voted (1402). sidenote on 1402 i don't know where the

(also, if you are scum i can take full credit for you jestering about at the very beginning of the game).

but really at this point i'm not sure but i really don't have a choice where the wagons go. i think i'd honestly prefer s_s because of my personal theories (which i recognize is hypocritical to call you out for you using your own LMFAO) but i get that it makes way more sense to vote on the snow wagon.

this is meandering but at this point i don't really have anything else i can say/do. i'm not 100% sold on my vote here but it's my only option and it has enough of a chance to flip scum that i'm not upset that it's here.

[Menalque]

Why are raya and montosh cleared, but moreso montosh?

[Montosh]

Ydrasse:

182 Essentially posts an earlier version of some of the reasons I'm voting Menalque now. There is a notion that there's a lot more leeway for scum here. Even if they look bad, they just need to make it long enough to escape and get out of here. I wonder how you think about the slot after Menalque switched alts and stopped acting that way.

506 Felt here that the early RCE wagon was a bit contrived and without much substance. Kind of agree with this. There's been less pressure on RCE today despite being unconfirmed and on the snow wagon. I TR them myself. As best as I can see Menalque and Raya were the two unconfirmed on the Day 1 RCE wagon, as was Mae later on. Doesn't exactly improve my read on Menalque.

552 Snowblaze vote. Reasonable logic, if ultimately incorrect.

658 Ydrasse hops on the Mohab/Mae wagon a little later but stayed on despite the shifting that we saw with all the replace outs Day 1. I don't know that scum does that in this setup. If it was clear that Mae was a very probably lynch yeah but it wasn't at all clear. It's a big risk just for the hope that it will get you towncred across the board, and of course it didn't even work.

715 You said here and in 734 that you felt snow was too blatant to be scum, in terms of offering non-committal reads. You did vote Craig/Menalque earlier Day 1 for a similar reason though. What was different between them?

There's more irt to Ydrasse but I was just looking at earlier Day 1 stuff. May continue this.

[Something_Smart]

Why are raya and montosh cleared, but moreso montosh?

Echoing the Raya question. I feel like people have just been writing Raya off as town for ?? reason.

[Menalque]

so that leaves you.

(1) who i feel is like... running through a list of things that just pile on the list of things that scum does blatantly in the hopes of it being townread because it is Too Blatant

. the

(2) hard push on snowblaze d1 (where, i know you said you weren't pushing the case super hard but i feel you were invested enough to ask for people's votes and also ask them to change it back which fmpov seems to imply you were pushing it fairly hard

), the

(3) self-vote in an effort to ~help town resolve you which is entirely counterproductive to actually helping town if you're town and you know that

. i dunno.

(4) your lategame to me just has this feeling wherein you're trying to get the votes shuffled off of you.

1441 + 1461+ 1471 being some examples of that.

idk. you're

(4) just weirdly dissonant in the sort of defeatist tones of "yeah if i'm wrong vote me out tomorrow, or you can just resolve my slot today (as you did earlier), i'm not even really sure in my reads" and still providing a lot of theory and determination in your views on where scum might've voted (1402)

.

(5) sidenote on 1402 i don't know where the

(1) okay but like why would i choose to play this way as scum when I would have varying choices? This isn’t really consistent with how I’ve more or less ever played scum on site, and my scumgame is almost entirely focused on solid play and doing the smart thing, not on trying to coast through on WIFOM. I have tried to leverage wifom when forced into a bad position, but you’re arguing I did this from the beginning which is like... not how I operate

(2) it really wasn’t that hard. I don’t understand how you or other people are suggesting that level of push was a hard push, when there’s meta examples of how strong my pushes tend to be when scum. Or when town, for that matter. I can find more than one game in a second where I more or less forced the guillotine onto the person I wanted after repping into the game despite their being townread beforehand. The level of force I’m capable of bringing in is why the push to do snow > mae was not a strong push.

(3) I don’t see your point and this doesn’t feel like a very good faith take? In the scenario where I am town, and at that point in the game there was a very legitimate reason to think that despite missing out on the auto-win opportunity, there would be a benefit from townslots who were tunnelling on me learning they were wrong and being able to refocus. I don’t understand how that’s “entirely counterproductive”?

(4) this is across 2 points because I think they’re both relevant to the same thing — yes, I am now trying to get voted shifted off me, and yes this is different to my defeatist (not entirely defeatist but more fatalistic, I still have reasonable hope that town will win if I’m misguillo’d) stance before, but that’s in consequence of my stronger reads and desire to flip you which wasn’t there. Like, while I was in the position of “oh idk where scum is at all, could be here, could be there, I’ve already been super wrong once idk if I want to try and lead again anywhere and I’m not sure what scum decided to do D1” it made sense to say “okay maybe I should be the sacrificial lamb if people aren’t TRing me and I’m going to be a liability if I’m brought to the late game.” Once I got stronger reads it no longer made sense to do that. And especially on giving that theory from 1402 — there’s a big incentive for me to provide that in the case where I am guillotined today, in order to help town tomorrow. How is that contradictory with me being fatalistic about likely dying today, especially knowing that that push was likely to lead to me looking worse — which again, why do I do that as scum when I could definitely have gotten A50 guillotined over me given how little he’s played and how he’s also on the snow wagon.

(5) I think this paragraph is unfinished

[Menalque]

Why are raya and montosh cleared, but moreso montosh?

Echoing the Raya question. I feel like people have just been writing Raya off as town for ?? reason.

Yeah, I realised I was doing this shortly before writing 1402 and it was part of what led to the re-evaluation laid out there

[Something_Smart]

(5) I think this paragraph is unfinished

lmao

maybe it was supposed to be "I don't know where the

sentence should end

"

[Ydrasse]

...it was in fact unfinished. lmao.

i'll reread raya; there was a brief moment on d1 where i was ??? at her general presence but it sort of fell away into everything else and i haven't seen anything she's posted thus far really make me question her again, so i haven't — if i don't try to sort some people as town among the options i'd go crazy trying to figure everything out. for montosh, fmpov the way he's approaching this game feels more like someone trying to genuinely sort through people and their alignments where he's unsure rather than pushing for anything in a way that feels scummy to me. his response to me in 1385 feels about what i could expect from him and out of all the uncomfirmed slots i feel best labeling this one as town for right now.

[Ydrasse]

wrt where i was going to that 1402 thing, it was just to do with i have no idea where that interpretation of the game suddenly sprang from and it just gives me the "how the game would've played out if i were scum, but i am not" sort of feeling that i generally get when i see people talk about how they would play something.

[Raya36]

Or you switched your vote because you realized Mae was going down and you decided to bus to get town-cred.

Where is the evidence that Mohab was going down? Snowblaze was ahead before I voted, iirc.

Ok even so you may have decided just to bus for town cred

[Something_Smart]

Sure, if I thought the towncred was worth getting five townies confirmed.

As I've said multiple times I wouldn't expect scum to put their eggs into the basket of "town will think scum wouldn't bus" because bussing accusations are common even in situations where bussing really does make no sense (and it does make some sense here).

[Eevee]

Almost50 and RCE would make sense for ALmo's weird defense of RCE and RCE's scummy posts from day 1

anyway i'm sadly a little burnt out on mafia right now so i have no motivation to meta or even read everything right now - sorry and good luck i'll be cheering on from the sidelines



~Eve

[Eevee]

YES, I WILL BE TAKING OVER NOW VOTE: Ydrasse

~EVA

[Raya36]

Sure, if I thought the towncred was worth getting five townies confirmed.

As I've said multiple times I wouldn't expect scum to put their eggs into the basket of "town will think scum wouldn't bus" because bussing accusations are common even in situations where bussing really does make no sense (and it does make some sense here).

Ok UNVOTE:

I really don't know anymore and I think we're really close to deadline