Mini 1801 - Undertale: Kill or Be Killed Mafia [Game Over!]

[Parama]

Votecount 4.11

GuiltyLion (1)

- grapes

[L-2]

No Lynch (1)

- Dunnstral

[L-2]

Not Voting (2)

- GuiltyLion, Parama

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 4 is Friday, August 12th at 9PM EST.

Mod Notes

None!

________________________________________


But I don't wanna go "lol who cares yolo" *votes wrong and loses* because that's not cool for the other players

[Dunnstral]

I'm going to do an iso analysis then
not now but today probably

And you can tell me what you think of it

[Dunnstral]

Not really an iso analysis but one important point was that grapes revealed that scum had fake claims initially while the rest of town wasn't doing anything
Grapes would have been quick to bus frog too


CP thought Guilty was mafia
Titus thought Guilty was mafia and was pushing there over parama

And my gut is telling me that Guilty is the mafia here

But I don't wanna go "lol who cares yolo" *votes wrong and loses* because that's not cool for the other players

Right but I've got a pretty good feeling about this one and to boot I think a watcher fits the setup with all the fruit vendors

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[GuiltyLion]

I'm going to do an iso analysis then
not now but today probably

And you can tell me what you think of it

Please do this for the sake of the game. Your vote is currently a losing vote

[Dunnstral]

UNVOTE:

zzz

ok

[GuiltyLion]

Not really an iso analysis but one important point was that grapes revealed that scum had fake claims initially while the rest of town wasn't doing anything
Grapes would have been quick to bus frog too

Yes, when you are bussing you need to be quick and decisive with it, otherwise you don't get the intended towncred.

CP thought Guilty was mafia
Titus thought Guilty was mafia and was pushing there over parama

They're wrong. Why is that relevant to determining my alignment?

GreyICE explicitly said if he dies, grapes is scum. Are you factoring that in your decision here?

And my gut is telling me that Guilty is the mafia here

See the shitty thing is I can't argue with your "gut". I can only argue with points against me and points for grapes.

Right but I've got a pretty good feeling about this one and to boot I think a watcher fits the setup with all the fruit vendors

If you want to talk setup spec, you're thinking:
- there's no protective role in the game
- there's a watcher and a motion detector
- the motion detector cannot be roleblocked, but the watcher can
- Rory didn't submit an action, then grapes was roleblocked -after- that.

[Dunnstral]

What do you think of the fact that Grapes brought up the mafia fake fruit vendors while you were still arguing that frog could be town

[GuiltyLion]

I think grapes

knew

there were mafia fake fruit vendors, because he's mafia. I argued frog could be town because I genuinely thought he could be town and I wanted to explore all the options before coming to a decision on where to vote, because for a while it was shaping up like I would either deadlock the vote at 4 on frog and 4 on Titus, or I would be the hammer on frog.

I've never seen a game before where scum can give out fruit items that aren't at all tied to their true role by flavor, so I spent a lot of D3 thinking that if Parama truly received a steak, then this would clear frog from having a human role. I was also distracted early on by being on a weekend trip and barely following along with the game, and also didn't really get to stay engaged in the second half of the day because Creature hammered unexpectedly.

also, again, frog claimed to have gifted to me as his N2 fruit vend, and I loosely claimed to CC him by also claiming a protective ability.

either:
a) we came up with these plans as nefarious WIFOM to clear me from possibly being his partner, because scum wouldn't fruit vend their own team and then also half-heartedly CC but also immediately townread eachother after that
b) I'm town and everything I said was true

[GuiltyLion]

What do you think of the fact that Grapes brought up the mafia fake fruit vendors while you were still arguing that frog could be town

also with respect to this, I brought this up earlier but I don't think I was clear about my point:

Parama also argued that frog could be town. There is only one scum remaining. Parama and I cannot both be scum.

Therefore,

arguing that frog could be town

is

by definition

not alignment-indicative. It's an objectively illogical position to hold. If you're going to call me scummy for arguing that frog could be town, you have to point out why

the way in which I argued that frog could be town

is scummier than Parama's arguing for frog being town, because the "arguing that frog is town" itself applies to two players - one of whom must be town.

It's actually one of the main reasons I am townreading Parama so hard, as a townie I can completely follow his thought process for all of yesterday, which makes me relatively confident that he is also town.

[grapes]

prod dodge

Spoiler:

[grapes]

also nice to see Lion not just lay down and lurk

but most of his stuff we've gone over 100 times at this point; ill respond to whatever you guys think i should respond to, though

[Parama]

i'm going to have to sit down and read at some point, but i am just

ugh

i'll try to do smething tomorrow i guess.

[grapes]

Guys deadline is tomorrow what the fuck.

[grapes]

i'm going to have to sit down and read at some point, but i am just

ugh

i'll try to do smething tomorrow i guess.

like seriously you choose NOW to read stuff

[Dunnstral]

Guys deadline is tomorrow what the fuck.

I'm still leaning towards wanting to lynch GL

Sorry this phase took so long

Parama what do you think

[GuiltyLion]

No lynching is still optimal play today, if I get the coin flip protect then we autowin with another no-lynch, assuming Dunnstral is truthful.

Plus it would be more evidence for me being town

[Dunnstral]

ok. Let's nolynch

VOTE: nolynch

And if I'm alive next day phase it won't take 14 days I'll wrap it up in like 3-4 max

[GuiltyLion]

should we wait for Parama to do a thing or should I hammer it

[Dunnstral]

It's l-2 I was apparently already voting nolynch

[Parama]

should we wait for Parama to do a thing or should I hammer it

wait goddammit

[Parama]

placid's slot is basically useless for associative tells here, so i didn't bother. the only thing is that placid's posts make it blatant that i'm not scum with him lol but etc

frog:
437 - mentions guilty in passing, comparing his play negatively to a townread. not sure what to make of this because he otherwise says nothing about him and i'm not sure what the point of this is. he goes on to never ever mention guilty again until 900 game posts later.
447 - really bothered by the coaching of rory here. he hasn't commented on the slot otherwise up until this post, and the first thing he says has nothing alignment-related.
659 - this reads more like scolding than accusing. frog is not making his stance on rory very clear at all.
854 - holy crap, that's a leading question. on top of the continued coaching.
864 -

"hey guys look how obviously a town lynch that was"

. gross.
1386 - the vaguest of reads, with no examples given. "he looks town, but i would vote him". fencesitting hardcore. keeping options open.
1483 - i don't know; this feels almost like an overexaggeration by frog, and he doesn't follow it up either.
1597 - both lumped into the backup lynches category. dunn is pretty obviously town from this post and a few of the ones preceding it, too.
1631 - more coaching, this time at grapes.
1675 - ooohh. this just doesn't strike me as something frog would do if guilty was scum too. he'd be ecstatic that a top scumread magically turned into a top townread. or at least, not call it out so specifically.
1805 - he even comes back to this one.
2130 - man, he really wants guilty to claim. behavior that seems out of character for a scumbuddy
2252 - d3 is gonna be full of distancing, given the result. distancing towards grapes, and buddying of guilty. do the math. he has nothing to prove to his scumbuddy. there's no reason to buddy up so blatantly.

going off just frog's posts alone, i am deeefintely leaning towards a grapes buddy. the subtle defense of the rory wagon, the constant coaching of the rory/grapes slot, the buddying of guilty contrasted to the distancing/lack of appeasing towards grapes. but i'm going to read through guilty, rory, and grapes' isos just to be safe.

[Dunnstral]

Good post

I'm willing to vote grapes

Wanna nolynch anyway or what's the plan

[Parama]

guilty:
726 - ehh. dunno what to make of this. i can see an argument for buddying and i can see guilty-town earnestly believing this.
758 - hhmmm. "you're townreading him and he says the opposite thing as you". i'm not sure what to make of this either tbh, i pass, skipping this one
808 - buddying
817 - buddying
823 - you know, i'm getting the feeling that frog had guilty pocketed during d1 considering all the buddying
1127 - it continues
1291 - [confirmed town] is looking town for suspicion on [confirmed scum] that i scumread. the arguments against [confirmed scum] i agree with, but i disagree that [confirmed scum] is scum and think he's town. yeah, dunno what to make of this either, ugh. i wanna say it's more scumbuddy-tell than the opposite, but i can't put into words why
1776 - this is the good stuff
1808 - but this could be the classic vote: town fos: scum
1828 - if i didn't know any better i'd say this post was scum telling town to shut up and take a lynch, but that's not the case obv
1869 - hold up, this reads like you knew kitten would flip town. you're immediately looking into one of the driving forces on the wagon before the flip? did the frog read just evaporate, then? suddenly town again?
2070 - i dunno, this feels really noncommital for a bus?
2145 - frog tried to rolefish guilty. i don't think guiltyscum would've opposed it this bluntly.
2230 - i dunno why guilty!scum would be this noncommital with the cc thing too
2239 - for the record, this is basically the logic everyone else was following
2290 - okay this is a comment about grapes now but seriously the hell is this post. i've commented on this before and it still kinda reads like a scumslip on grapes' part...
2291 - the noncommital goes both ways. there was a reason for him to not vote frog earlier but there's no reason to not vote titus here.
2294 - this is just a weird post. it's like a "hah, yeah, we're totally boned if you flip town" post. of course they wouldn't have known about creature's wincon thing and leaving the game, so... i'm not seeing why scum!guilty would react this way
i'm just really bothered by how guilty never places a vote all of day 3.
frog's dead past that so i'm done with this ISO

[Parama]

rory:
368 - null read on placid here but it means very little as placid was barely posting
639 - something about the tone here. it's really pissy and confrontational.
644 - nullscum on frog. no real reason given though.
686 - again, the tone. i'm not feeling scum/scum interaction on that...

grapes:
1635 - unexplained frog townread
1927 - this is past the start of d3 already, geez. admitting frog looked town but less town than the lovers. there's really no basis on the townreads though. unexplained tne townread in 1635. slight scumlean on btd6 in an earlier post. and then they're suddenly townier than frog. it would've really helped to have more insight on your thought processes d2, just saying
2067 - this is. the most important post in the thread imo. i just. can't get past this. on one hand "mislynching frog, the scenario where both lovers are scum, means town doesn't lose". which suggests only two scum, both being the lovers. 8 players alive at this point. but then it doesn't work the other way either. "mislynching lovers costs us the game" - which wouldn't be the case if grapes was scum and knew there were 2 mafia. i'm just mad about this post. because it's either a townslip or a scumslip and that's infuriating, it doesn't make sense. sigh.
2153 - also bothered here though because grapes gets frog's claim wrong. grapes-scum would know the claim?
2254 - and yeah, grapes-scum could've sat back and not pointed this out and let the lover mislynch happen, knowing frog would still be boned the next day and grapes would get points for bussing in 3-way lylo if they were scum. i mean, aside from the creature leaving thing and all.

frog's dead after this. i'm looking for one more post bcuz i'm curious tho, i think grapes already responded to the 2067 thing?
i can't find one tho.

[Parama]

i think i just ended up more confused than i started with. if i ignore both living players' isos then grapes is probably the buddy. but guilty's iso has some bad stuff in it too while grapes' iso has mostly confusing stuff but a few slight towntells?