Open 643: Kill All Townies! (Game Over)

[DixC]

VOTE: KuroiXHF

For pretending to be Mafia.

[DixC]

@KuroiXHF Oops.
VOTE: Karnos I'm still amazed you could pull off so big a bw at the beginning of the game without pre-coordination.

This is a really good point, also turnabout is fair play: VOTE: Karnos.

[DixC]

Actually, I think Kuroi used the generic term scum and DixC specified mafia.

Why mafia, DixC?

VOTE: DixC

Because the forum is called Mafia Scum

I have a LOT of experience playing this game at places like gencon and dragon con and running the game on the anandtech forums. But usually I run a Werewolf game; I thought i'd use there proper term here... and I screwed it up, which puts me at rank 3 in my list of people to kill.

So who's claimed scum so far? They should be 1 on the kill list: I HATE losing to some wearing an ass-skin hat. All else held equal, I say kill the people who are 1) working against knowledge (i.e. 'fake' scum) then 2) the least active (i.e. 'because' votes) then 3) people who are not taking the hunt seriously (i.e. screws ups).

[DixC]

I think Jae is scum and Creature could be Scum as well.

Why? What posts, specifically?

Creature has one post, lq. but ranger scum reading you for one post is bad?

wtf?

My read on Creature is I can't talk about ongoing games. Does that make sense? I know what Rangers read is based on but I can't talk about ongoing games so I can't tell you.

It makes sense, but I understand how it looks hypocritical. Its not though. Go through my ISO (site wide) and you might get what I'm talking about.

That's a huge subversion of the rule... Keep it in the thread.

[DixC]

VOTE: lq

that post was horrible.

Kinda agree with the horribleness oh that post, actually.

VOTE: LQ

I repeat myself. What was horrible about it?

I think this sums it up:

QL ISO, Part 2:

102 is a nothing answer to a question from Kuroi. 104 is awful. Among other things, LQ point to his endoresement-without-reasons as evidence that he is doing useful work for Town. In 106 he questions why Kuroi went from giving him the benefit of the doubt to voting him. Obvious answer: because LQ said that the player who voted him was dumb because he voted for on a "false premise". I.e. a nothing defense. 108 gets even worse, with this memorable line: "I have not really been scum hunting, well, not directly. I have been making stances which is a kind of Scum hunting." 110: Snarky. 113: At last, puts a bit of effort into replies to Kuroi. A bit of an improvement here. Says he thinks lmost is Town, and at least gives some sort of reason this time. But WHY give a reason here, given his subsequent defense of his endorsement of me

sans

-reason? And he takes that stance in response to Kuroi pointing out that he has taken only one stance in the game so far. STILL HASN'T DONE ANY SCUMHUNTING. Instead, seems to be Townhunting. 117, 119, 121, 123: Engages in a duelling-handbags argument with House (another suspicious character, btw) over the use of the terms "mafia" and "scum". There is already a discussion about whether this is staged, so I won't address it here..

Tomorrow I will dumpster scum.

What's Dumpster Scum?

[DixC]

Here's my read on a back and forth from earlier:

Town morons just refuse to see that you are Town too.

I see this as chip is trying to insinuate that LQ should take hint: "I'm (pretending to be) town morons, other people (pretending to be town) should take the hint".

Then LQ responds:

And you are a Town read because you are not playing like an experienced player plays and inexperienced players are the easiest to read. Just FYI.

I see this as LQ trying to insinuate "You are a (pretend) town player because you are bad at playing and I can read what you are saying like an open book.

Then,

Have you ever noticed that those little guys roll their eyes in unison? How freaky is that?

As though to say "hey, i'm with scum" Chip insinuates himself as being linked with the only person near LQ on ranger's list: House.

Finally,

Chip, I get you, but you are confirmation biasing me pretty hard right now.

LQ gets frustrated with how blatant Chip is being and even says "hey, shut up about being scum before you get us both caught".

[DixC]

Ok. I have noted the history and I still dislike your interaction with Ranger.

That's fine, dislike away.

lazy, but not incorrect. If we can nail obv!scum today, we can do the harder stuff when the huge amount of scum has thinned a bit

I could also vote pista still. That question to ranger is super counter productive.

@hippy, what do you need?

It is indeed incorrect. This isn't a scum Charl, I think. I also believe that you should know that. It looks like you want to thin town, not scum. You're feeling out support for mislynches and it feels scummy.

I also think pista is town. The question was bad, yes, but the question is whether that makes her scum or not. Why do you believe she's more likely to ask that question as scum rather than town?

I'll be honest here, it seems like you're not even really trying to actually scumhunt. It's all shallow from what I've seen the past few days. I know you can do better than this.

Most of the games I've played are IRL and at second and third level. Forum games I've played have been at first level. Playing at three levels of communication IRL gives you a strong sense of how people react to crazy. Everything LQ does feels scummy: real scum know better than this, heavy town lean. Chip OTOH acted exactly like I would have expected from scum accused by a crazy reach: like he's safe because future accusations are going to be guilty by association, heavy scum lean. The Jae/Ranger fanfic was... Odd... But if I assume it's part of actual play, then I'm concerned that they would know everyone woul likely skim it and there within encoded a message. So: ranger, Jae, what was that actually all about? If it was seriously just being goofy why shouldn't we think it scummy that you've flocked any real info with noise?

[DixC]

What's with the large text?

Sorry, i'm new to the forum an the text looked small on my phone; it's clearly too big looking at it on my computer.

I'm assuming she was buddying and I don't care that she was? In fact, I'm 100% fine with being pocketed by Ranger. As she pointed out, she's dead tonight anyway so no harm done.

I thought about this while walking to work today and it struck me that if you seem like you're linked with someone and that someone is town then it doesn't hurt you, but if that person is scum then it does hurt you to some degree. The only way to feel 100% fine with being linked to someone is knowing that they are 100% town.

How does her dying tonight solve this? Also, why would she die tonight? does the whole forum really just believe in her magical scum-sniff power?

If it's real we should just vote down the list.

[DixC]

Are you still convinced you're going to die tonight?

I don't recall saying I would.

But in my experience, my rate of mortality is directly correlated to my rate of annoyance to the scum. So it really depends on just how annoying I am to them.

There's some stuff in your iso like in 373. Looking back, you didn't specify tonight--still, why are you so emphatic that you're dead?

It's a gambit.

I'm satisfied with Jae and Ranger's responses: not satisfied with LQ's he should have pegged me for the poorly defended town-read on him.

[DixC]

The ranger getting killed tonight is a huge WIFOM. Since it's multi-ball, as it looks more obvious she will get killed tonight it actually becomes less likely- because each scum team assumes the other will take the kill.

Basically, she will probably get killed night 1 or 2, maybe night 3. She might be scum or town, it doesn't really change these chances significantly, except that as scum she might have a doctor's protection. Really the whole thing is a waste of time to argue about, because it's NAI in this game.

Yelp: as I said before, it's a gambit.

Maybe I'm crazy but I think Chip is onto something in pointing out the self contradictions of ranger.

[DixC]

VOTE: DixC

Just a big nothing vote; cute.

LQ doesn't consolidation make it easier for a bad kill to happen?

[DixC]

Vote: Sad

My first serious vote. He's posting quite a bit, and they appear to have depth, but it comes across to defensive.

Defensiveness isn't always a scum tell. Shoulda just stopped at that he was posting quite a bit and they appear to have depth.

God damn, this must be the reason I was Scum read so hard. I admit I can see how this makes me look Scummy. Only defense I can offer is that I wasn't really paying attention to what was happening in the thread, was just arguing with Kuroi stupidly because I didn't think they were being a troll face.

I don't know what scum theater is; but I know what indirectly begging the seer to check you looks like.

[DixC]

Current scumreads: LQ, House (whoever replaces him), Ranger, Jae (Ranger and Jae may or may not be on the same scumteam)

You only have 4 scumreads when there's 6 scum. Why?

Do you need all 6? Or is this a deflection from your name being prominently placed in the list along side ranger (odd)? And the two most scummy-seeming folks in the game?

You know, Pistachi0n may be 0n to something...

[DixC]

VOTE: dix

4 days. let's have some consolidation

VOTE: dix

Seems like a good place to go, I think.

What I'm not liking here is a lot of slips. I don't know why people are letting them go. "pretending to be mafia" indicating that he's mafia and knows the other person isn't. 642 "I know what indirectly begging the seer to check you looks like" also is very pointed in him thinking that if someone is scum they must be werewolf.

I don't think these could be general term type things because he'd either be using mafia/cop or ww/seer. He's using both in ways that I can't see him

not

being mafia.

@LQ don't remember if you wanted the explanation on where my scumread of you started and all that. Not sure you answered since you started rereading.

Is that really a thing around here? People who are pedantic are team good and people who just joined the forum and are used to werewolf are scum? That's some really poor thinking.

But I sed you're being voted, that I pointed out your lack of reasoning for another post, and now you need to deflect; so I get it.

[DixC]

There's no disagreeing with it any more, VOTE: JaeReed for Mafia (and/or Werewolf, or, whatever scum-species indeterminate term is preferred; or not). I agree LQ & Jae are playing like different factions, so one gives a great deal of tell on the other.

[DixC]

VOTE: DixC

VOTE: Dixc

VOTE: Dixc
I thought Dixc would be killed by a vig, but gj regardless!

If scum think non-scum is going to be killed the next day why would they bother killing that person?

what's a big and what's gj?

[DixC]

Also,
VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

Why? Why are you doing this?

You've been saying that since:

Also,
VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

Why? Why are you doing this?

{karnos, hiplop}
{JaeReed, Charloux, Kuroi}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty}
{Bellaphant}
{LicketyQuickety}

{karnos, hiplop}
{JaeReed, Charloux, Kuroi}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty, Smithereens, Kop, pistachi0n}
{sad}
{Bellaphant, DixC}
{House}
{LicketyQuickety}

Explain these lists, please.

[DixC]

Also,
VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

Why? Why are you doing this?

You've been saying that since:

Also,
VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

Why? Why are you doing this?

{karnos, hiplop}
{JaeReed, Charloux, Kuroi}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty}
{Bellaphant}
{LicketyQuickety}

{karnos, hiplop}
{JaeReed, Charloux, Kuroi}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty, Smithereens, Kop, pistachi0n}
{sad}
{Bellaphant, DixC}
{House}
{LicketyQuickety}

Explain these lists, please.

Yeah, and I'll keep asking until I actually get an answer, even if I have to ask after the game is over.

Let's be honest here: that's really fair.

[DixC]

Also,
VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

Why? Why are you doing this?

You've been saying that since:

Also,
VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

Why? Why are you doing this?

{karnos, hiplop}
{JaeReed, Charloux, Kuroi}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty}
{Bellaphant}
{LicketyQuickety}

{karnos, hiplop}
{JaeReed, Charloux, Kuroi}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty, Smithereens, Kop, pistachi0n}
{sad}
{Bellaphant, DixC}
{House}
{LicketyQuickety}

Explain these lists, please.

Yeah, and I'll keep asking until I actually get an answer, even if I have to ask after the game is over.

Let's be honest here: that's really fair.

IDK if you're trying to buddy me or pocket me or whatever other term you use where you come from, but believe me when I tell you it won't have and effect on the way I read your slot.

I still have you down as likely mafia: I just want to hear from ranger.


You're not my buddy pal; and I'm not your pal buddy.

[DixC]

I've never actually played a completed game with scum!Ranger, but that is how I surmise she would play. I believe she has games posted on her wiki in which she was scum.

So you're saying you don't actually know how ranger plays as scum... but this must be it, ergo she's scum...?

I'm saying I've never seen a Ranger read as awful as her read on hiplop, and hiplop's ISO looks awful.

Confirmed

VOTE: hiplop

[DixC]

OTOH, I still don't trust LQ enough to vote with him, so maybe hiplop is the better vote for now. We can watch how the Ranger v LQ thing develops, and go from there.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: hiplop

exactly my thinking on the subject.

[DixC]

Guys, I think something is wrong with the forum, all of the mafia scum have "mafia scum" under their names!

The word 'ranger' occurs 42 times over 25 posts last page... Ranger has taken over the game, is making claims as though to suss out the seer, and the only kind with interest in who the seer is are scum: ergo VOTE: Ranger must go.

[DixC]

It's posts like that ^ which explain why Ranger is the source of so much attention.

Indeed they are.

It's called "scum don't like that I'm right about them and am refusing explain how I nailed them".

I think it's called "throw enough at the wall and you'll get something to stick" and you think it's sticking to LQ, but it's clearly not.

[DixC]

The most famous of which is never get in a land war in Asia...

Ranger, from whom did you imbibe this evening?

[DixC]

Oh heck with it.
I have poor impulse control, and I isoed shotty (the Titus slot).
VOTE: DixC.

So a more detailed post will have to wait, but I'll give you some of the highlights.
I started today legitimately thinking LicketyQuickety was the alpha werewolf. Werewolf, because I didn't think his interactions with House were on the same scumteam, Alpha, because his level of visibility made sense as being the alpha: doctor could keep shots off of him, whereas his high-profile would attract investigations to clear him.
I wanted his flip, because if he flipped werewolf, it would clear DixC: DixC was pressured by the mafia, and also by LicketyQuickety. If LicketyQuickety was instead the mafia godfather (again, high-profile play, only in this case on the same scumteam as House. Note that I have not ruled this possibility out), then DixC would be the player the mafia strongly thought was werewolf.
If LicketyQuickety was town, obviously, this would mean DixC would be a werewolf as well.

Now, Kop is obviously mafia. His House read says as much, among other things.
And I'm not quite sure on who the third could be. It's not hiplop (who is town). It's either {Not_Mafia, LicketyQuickety}. One of them is town, the other is mafia.

What I'm saying indirectly here is that {Bellaphant, Creature/shotty/Titus, DixC} are the werewolves team, and since we have a dead mafiate (and the mafia doctor, no less!), we should be lynching for the werewolves.

And I no longer think LicketyQuickety is one. I'd direct you to shotty's readslist in 807 for a start. (Note that it's scum-to-town.) Bellaphant's in the top-tier, DixC the second-top-tier. There's more, from Creature, from Bellaphant, from DixC, but all of them were individual scumreads and all of them have these associations which tie them together and make me want to pursue this instead.

If I may explain the psychological trick Ranger is playing.

It's called the conjunction fallacy: If I give you details, each of which should reduce the probability of what I said, you are more likely to believe it because you 'add' the probability of all those details instead of multiplying them.

So let's say LQ is 24% likely to be scum 12% wolf 12% mafia
Let's say LQ is 8% likely to be unreadable 4% wolf-alpha 4% mafia-godf father

Because of the tendency of human to conduct the conjunctive fallacy you are MORE likely to believe it when I say LQ is scum, is unreadable, and is a wolf than if I simply said "he's scum". Instead of doing the multiplication to get to the 4% chance that he's a wolf, I end up adding the probability of each claim: 24+8+4.

Ranger could have probably added up enough probabilities to get to over 100% had she just said this:

"but it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me. Because iocane comes from Australia, as everyone knows, and Australia is entirely peopled with criminals, and criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. You've beaten my giant, which means you're exceptionally strong, so you could've put the poison in your own goblet, trusting on your strength to save you, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But, you've also bested my Spaniard, which means you must have studied, and in studying you must have learned that man is mortal, so you would have put the poison as far from yourself as possible, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me. "

What that quote makes fun of is exactly this: the human mind's tendency to accept sufficiently detailed unlikely stories.

[DixC]

Why not mafia godfather, unless Ranger claims to know who that is.

TBF, I think Ranger did specify WW on the basis of associations with House (Mafia), which is actually fair enough I think.

I agree the association is reasonable: but the desire to we over general scum only makes sense as a rhetorical argument. "I WAS RIGHT" is another argument that makes no sense, first day lynching is likely to hit town because without info the scum can take advantage.

[DixC]

@Smithereens: Don't you think Ranger is looking scummy?

No.

You're basically calling her scum for switching her vote around haphazardly. Not only is this not completely non-AI, it is closely consistent with the conclusions she is reaching. You should be reading town from that behaviour.

Reading scum of those who do things that town would never do makes sense, i.e. Seer/cop hunting, reading town from something Mafia wouldn't do makes no sense because Mafia has reason to act not-Mafia while town had no reason to act scum.

[DixC]

This is a nonsense train. By ranger's own logic Creature/shotty/Titus and Bellaphant are the ones she has anything against via a mild association with House

[DixC]

Again, Ranger has produced a convoluted argument and placed her bets against the least likely person because it requires the most detail to explain. It's a train of limited arguments who, in combination, lead to this nonsensical argument.

Just assign probabilities to all of the things she said; even starting with her own premises her conclusions don't follow.

What does follow is that I pointed out, repeatedly, the fallacy that Ranger relies on.

She also relies on building coalitions of the un-willing-to-die; so sticking three people that are so tangentially related as Not_Mafia, myself and Titus together the other two have every incentive to vote me to 'prove themselves'.

VOTE: Ranger's acting quite contrary to probability and I can't imagine that her reputation comes from this sort of anti-logical argumentation.

[DixC]

mebbe if you used something other than red font to address me I might be less inclined to think that you were subtly casting shade my way

how about you give me the highlights on what has happened so far cos that will be far more informative than anything I can glean from scrutinizing a bunch of pages that I wasn't even involved in.

like help a sista out

Red is my goto color for highlighting, unless it's reserved by the Mod. If I use it alongside green, it means something, but not on its own.

I think we need to hear your independent thoughts, not as filtered by my interpretation of events. Happy to debate anything/answer any questions about my votes/posts once we see where you are at. Laziness isn't necessarily AI, but it's not very helpful to Town either.

I presume you ARE going to read through the game at some point?

I dunno I won't say never but I most likely won't unless something makes me super duper interested in rereading a bunch of pages that I personally am not involved in.

are you going to give me a tl;dr version of your interpretation of what has happened so far? cos I am really interested in hearing what that is

Don't read the whole thing, just look at the schizophrenic pace of change and self-contradictions we see with Ranger.

[DixC]

My body sucks.

Mod: V/LA yesterday, today, and tomorrow to recover.

I hate feeling this sick every couple of weeks or so, but I can't magically wave a wand and make the sickness go away.

Sorry to hear, I wish you the best. I don't mean to be presumptuous but I've lost 51lbs in the last 17 weeks and reversed my type 2 diabetes eating a whole-plant based diet, so I feel obligated to share. The science shows that the power of nutrition to arrest and sometimes reverse chronic conditions is astounding:

http://nutritionfacts.org/video/food-as-medicine/

I've read the scientific studies this is based on and they're legitimate. PM me if you want to chat further.

[DixC]

I take that back, that doesn't appear to be a recent VC.

Sorry for all my new-to-the-forum questions, but what does VC stand for?

[DixC]

Ranger is a good lynch because:

We should peg Ranger at something like 59% scum and 95% helping scum. Her votes are so all over the place, her links biasing, and her argument so tangential that scum will take advantage of it for cover to justify town kill. Her play is very messy.

The question we need to ask is: if we fail to kill

Ranger

if she keeps this up is that OK? She is bias against whole groups: she's extra dangerous.

My bet is that she was so sure about team side. She wanted to take down one because she's scum. The biggest danger is that she could come up clean when investigated. If we vote ranger and she's town that will remove cover for scum trains: but when we vote ranger and she is scum, and particularly at alpha/god-father level, then we will all sleep more safely.

[DixC]

Ranger's post about needing to be town leader?

That part was not a cross post

[DixC]

Still wanna wait for Ranger to return to the game before deciding whether to hammer or not.

Yeah, for how long.

This was her second priority for today. Crickets.

Something between this



and this

[DixC]

What just happened?! Ranger's reads were crap, but wow. Lay a little lower when you've got that kind of pro-town power. Also why's Ranger responding? VOTE: Mirhawk Let's get some real answers on this slot.

[DixC]

Wait, that was a hammer? Ugh, I didn't even know...

J
F
C

Jesus
Fried
Chicken

you love the hammer.

[DixC]

Okay, we should just lynch who Ranger says to lynch really.

Ranger said I was town-aligned, too...

{DixC, Bellaphant, Titus}, {pirate mollie, Not_Mafia}

Instead of that, we should replace pirate mollie with LicketyQuickety, that would be the best idea.

VOTE: DixC

Interesting case: a conglomeration of nonsensical and self contradictory arguments: VOTE: iraonavp

[DixC]

Titus, I remember you thought you were the hammer or L-1? Also not_mafia and you both affirmed your votes after me: I was no hammer. I expected the day to last much longer.

I agree Titus, let's take the day slow and get all the info we can before we go forward.

[DixC]

I'm watching you all talking in amazement! For the second night running we only had ONE night kill, yet nobody made any mention of it. What do you make of this?

It's 90% that mafia hit wolf and wolf doctored up the hit while wolf hit town.

The probability of wolf and mafia hitting the same target repeatedly is very low.

Yesterday Titus thought he was either hammer or L-1, I thought I was L-2 but could see it being read as L1. I counted a second time when Titus was confused and figured Titus for L-1. How we both overlooked that I was L-0 I don't know. But I didn't intend to hammer anyone, and I don't think Titus did either: of that I can assure you.

VOTE: Not_Mafia Is scum as the come. Just read that non-Iso (excepting below):

Casual and unapologetic, I like it

From someone that has said nearly nothing all game, this is unhelpful.

[DixC]

This game is solved.. Everyone that's town just reveal your roles! Any duplicates will be scum!

[DixC]

... we don't need violence any more.

The driver of violence was that everyone needed to kill... now that theres no town majority, but not auto-win we can just agree to be peaceable.

Swords into plow shears.

Prove there is good.

Belive in love.

VOTE: skipday

Also P(lynch!wolf) -> 0

[DixC]

While I didn't run with it like I should have, I would like to point out I pointed out that Chip was scum with my 'reach' that was, in fact, spot on:

Here's my read on a back and forth from earlier:

Town morons just refuse to see that you are Town too.

I see this as chip is trying to insinuate that LQ should take hint: "I'm (pretending to be) town morons, other people (pretending to be town) should take the hint".

Then LQ responds:

And you are a Town read because you are not playing like an experienced player plays and inexperienced players are the easiest to read. Just FYI.

I see this as LQ trying to insinuate "You are a (pretend) town player because you are bad at playing and I can read what you are saying like an open book.

Then,

Have you ever noticed that those little guys roll their eyes in unison? How freaky is that?

As though to say "hey, i'm with scum" Chip insinuates himself as being linked with the only person near LQ on ranger's list: House.

Finally,

Chip, I get you, but you are confirmation biasing me pretty hard right now.

LQ gets frustrated with how blatant Chip is being and even says "hey, shut up about being scum before you get us both caught".