Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over
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Fink Goon
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So that's a hard townread from you then?In post 38, Almost50 wrote: Btw, this really bad reasoning. Mafia don't want to be lynched, but they don't want to be shot by the Vig either. Acting scummy so as not to get lynched = painting a mark on your back to be shot.
ALSO, let's say he's Mafia and acted this way and didn't get shot. He sure IS going to get lynched once the Mimes have been shot down (unless he's counting on them to be both lynched and then they win and he still loses).-
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In post 42, Almost50 wrote:No! That's a NOOB MIME read. He wants to get lynched, but he made it so obvious he won't be lynched. Mafia may also do it IF we didn't have a Vig. Having a Town Vig rules out the Mafia possibility even for a noob. Got it?
So newb mafia know we have a vig but newb mime don't. Got it.-
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Fink Goon
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You could respond to this:Almost50 wrote:This game is going too slow there's hardly anything for me to comment on. Are we waiting for replacements?
Anyone who read the setup at all would know we have a vig. Is there a reason to expect mafia read the setup but mimes don't?In post 43, Fink wrote:In post 42, Almost50 wrote:No! That's a NOOB MIME read. He wants to get lynched, but he made it so obvious he won't be lynched. Mafia may also do it IF we didn't have a Vig. Having a Town Vig rules out the Mafia possibility even for a noob. Got it?
So newb mafia know we have a vig but newb mime don't. Got it.
My argument the other way is that trying to look a bit mime-ish on the first post would seem like a clever move if your role is mafia because of that initial "but what if they are a mime!?!" wifom response, which could help later, while Mimes would be worried about getting that same response. A bit of "but what if MIME" read from early game is good for Mafia avoiding lynches, bad for Mimes wanting to get lynched. It's a small thing, but people go back and look at the first posts of the game all the time.
And really, how likely do you think it is that your directing all the PRs based on the first page of the game is going to actually decide what they do? Do you think that's going to outweigh things like the counterwagon to a mislynch wagon or partner interactions with a lynched scum?-
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Because I clearly don't agree with Almost50's thought process, and I think it's productive to try to figure outIn post 127, GuiltyLion wrote:Fink I don't think 117 is wrong per se but can you tell me why you're riffing on this and why you think it's a productive argument to be havingwhy, Town-I-disagree-with or scum, and admittedly I think I won't have much clue about that until later but getting some of that thought process out now seems helpful toward getting a read on him.
And because he's hard mime-reading me for my page 1 read and that's therefore the most interesting thing happening in the game so far, as far as I'm concerned.
Do you think I'm clogging up the thread about this? Do you want my opinion on something else in particular?-
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Fink Goon
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I'm everybody's buddy.In post 156, RockyHorror wrote:Wait I thought fink/innocent were buddies?-
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To people who have played with Almost50 before, especially Thor,
Are posts like this, particularly the tone of them pretty standard coming from him? Or is this more confrontational than you'd expect?In post 118, Almost50 wrote:@Fink: Mimes aim to get LYNCHED. If they could accomplish that on D1 they don't need to worry about the Vig. "Act scummy --> Get lynched" is what a noob Mime would think. I do not expect a NOOB to go about the consequences beyond that point. Planning for multiple moves hardly makes someone a NOOB.
Mafia do NOT want to get lynched. A noob Mafioso would NOT try to act scummy in the first place. If they do (in order to avoid being lynched) then they are NOT a noob either. NOOB NOOB NOOB. A Newbie who has not yet developed the sense to plan ahead for multiple steps and will only go for the next move is what I'm talking about.-
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Fink Goon
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Sorry, I still kind of want to reread everything and haven't, but my vote is based on those first posts. I know it's not a lot to go on, but that's why it's there.In post 275, GuiltyLion wrote:can the three voters restate the case on him because I really don't think he's done anything scummy and I'd like a fresh take on why he's the best place for your vote
Basically, I think that Mimes are the key thing about this game. Honestly, who didn't want to be a Mime? No way Mimeteam comes in and does something that immediately screams Mime, but those first silly posts seem like a bit of a "please lynch me" Jester thing, and I think that's more likely to come from Mafia than Town or Mime. Mime opens their PM and comes up with complicated ways to get lynched, Mafia opens up their PM with Mimes on the brain, the idea occurs "what if I do something really Jestery at the start of Day 1?" Odds of actually getting lynched aren't that high, but I think it throws a bunch of "But what if they're a MIME??!?!" wifom in there that scum might hope to use to get out of a lynch.
The merits of this strategy are beside the point, my thought is that it's a thought process Mafia are more likely to have.
I disagree with Almost50s mimeread and AGGRESSIVE NOOB ASSUMPTIONS, obviously. Still torn on my read there by the way, I was thinking Mime but if Thor thinks that's normal tone then that's really a nothing read.-
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Fink Goon
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Sesq: I just read GL's ISO, it doesn't look like it's all fluff to me. post 126 jumps out at me as not being fluff and that was before your case.
Also, what did you mean by this?In post 240, Sesq wrote:please vote for guiltylion too, as i think it would help us all to see the results of that.-
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Did you buy into Almost50s Mime reasoning at the time?In post 45, FA_Q2 wrote:the same Q goes to thor though - why vote there when there is a decent case (at least for this early) that he is the mime? It feels like you just want to jump on any wagon at all....
Do you still agree with it?
What do you think of my argument?
Did you think Thor agreed with Almost50?-
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Sesq:In post 286, Fink wrote: Also, what did you mean by this?In post 240, Sesq wrote:please vote for guiltylion too, as i think it would help us all to see the results of that.-
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Haven't redone the math, but we should be aware that it's different, we have 2 more VTs in this setup than that one, so odds of hitting any given thing are lower.In post 320, RockyHorror wrote:Thoughts on this? I'm terrible at running the math on these scenarios so if there's someone that can give the statistics on lynch v no lynch here I'd appreciate it, because just off the top of my head there's a lot of logic with how town played the game last time.
It's certainly still much easier to vig 1 of 2 mimes than 1 of 1, but the chances of lynching a Mime on Day 1 are lower.-
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Quick and dirty that turned out to not be that quick but is probably pretty dirtySpoiler: math
~30% overall with random lynch vs. ~32% with the No Lynch
Given that scum will be PR hunting and Mimes will be PR/scumhunting for their RB, we should definitely lynch. (Plus the fact that lynches generate more interactions than no lynches.)-
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Fink Goon
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You're missing my whole argument, please keep readingIn post 337, Aristophanes wrote:Umm...Vig shoots a Mime claim. Always.
Lynching a Mime claim is idiotic XD
This, on the other hand, feels like deliberately missing the point, especially given that GL and I already had an exchange about this, he asked me to repeat my reasoning, and here is complaining that I'm not talking about other things. And as I try to get into the game and things pick up, GL pushes harder on this "Fink hasn't done anything" narrative, in a significantly harder way than Thor has, without placing a vote.In post 339, GuiltyLion wrote:
I just don't think those posts were all that "please lynch me", like it's literally just RVS song lyric posting. this feels like a reach and you haven't done anything beyond this voteIn post 281, Fink wrote:No way Mimeteam comes in and does something that immediately screams Mime,
but those first silly posts seem like a bit of a "please lynch me" Jester thing, and I think that's more likely to come from Mafia than Town or Mime.
Mime opens their PM and comes up with complicated ways to get lynched, Mafia opens up their PM with Mimes on the brain, the idea occurs "what if I do something really Jestery at the start of Day 1?" Odds of actually getting lynched aren't that high
VOTE: GuiltyLion
And Thor, it was never an RVS vote.-
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What were you thinking when you said it and why aren't you thinking it anymore?In post 365, lane0168 wrote:
Disregard thisIn post 348, lane0168 wrote:I get the impression that eragon had this long elaborate response typed up, then got concerned about how it would look, deleted it, and came up with this.
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What's your reasoning for this?In post 443, Almost50 wrote:Jingle and Nero both lean Mafia to me-
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Your reads are equally strong? I thought your mimeread on Lane was just based on interactions with Sesq. If that's true, that ought to be a weaker read since we don't have a Sesq flip.In post 483, Almost50 wrote:So, my vote now decides which of the MIMES is the counter wagon to mine!
For all practical purposes it's all the same to me since I believe them both to be Mimes, so I'll wait for one more vote on either to decide where my vote should be.-
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None of this addresses what I'm saying though.In post 493, Almost50 wrote:
I had them linked together as early as the top of page 2
...
So, I think I had a "semi-conviction" that the two are of the same alignment way before I decided Sesq was a Mime because of the way she fought (or rather didn't) against her wagon. They're like "interchangeable". If X is Mime then Y is Mime where X is either and Y is the other in no particular preference.
1. You have a mimeread on Sesq.
2. You have a read on Lane that Lane is the same alignment as Sesq.
Are those correct?
Because if so, that should make your mimeread on Lane at least a bit less strong than your mimeread on Sesq. Assuming your reads are not 100% accurate (and no one's are), you have 2 reads that could potentially be wrong, even if you're confident on them, to get to MimeLane. You have one read to get to MimeSesq.
This should relevant to your decisionmaking.
PPE: well I guess this wasn't needed-
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Eragon: Yeah I meant I still had that in an open tab from before you voted.In post 372, lane0168 wrote:
I was thinking what I said when I said it, but doing an iso and seeing the whole picture, I really don't think eragon is scumIn post 366, Fink wrote:
What were you thinking when you said it and why aren't you thinking it anymore?In post 365, lane0168 wrote:
Disregard thisIn post 348, lane0168 wrote:I get the impression that eragon had this long elaborate response typed up, then got concerned about how it would look, deleted it, and came up with this.
Lane: All these recent posts, the quoting a million things Thor says and still saying basically nothing while walling the shit out of the thread with quote boxes.-
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I say, posting a bunch of nested quotes that have nothing to do with that post.
Regarding the quote above, Lane was scumreading Eragon because he interpreted that post in the way he did because he was scumreading Eragon, but when he stopped scumreading Eragon he didn't think his reason to scumread Eragon was valid.
It's circular and weird and I haven't been sure how to explain my issue with it but I've been meaning to get to it.-
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{Vote:} GL
Aside from the thing from yesterday, the fact that he thinks he'd be an NK target seems like a standard assumption that's easy to have as mafia. I think if he were as good as people seem to imply and he'd been trying to solve the game, he'd be thinking about things like A50 potentially being Vig and Thor being a more likely Mime candidate.
"I figured I might die" seems like a default (possibly accurate) attitude that didn't seem at all likely from the gamestate going into night with 1 of the Mimes being lyched and A50's behavior. Scum having standard opinions without gamesolving.-
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Aristophanes is not voting even harder than the rest of usIn post 609, Kmd4390 wrote:Vote Count
No Lynch - 2 - Jingle, GuiltyLion
Not Voting - Fink, Thor665, Eragon, FA_Q2, Nero Cain, RockyHorror, innocentvillager
Not Voting - Aristophanes
Deadline is Wednesday, September 12 at 5:30pm EST.-
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By that logic scum have no need to post anything.In post 624, GuiltyLion wrote:uh, if I were scum you'd realize I'd have no need at all to post the fact that I thought I might die?-
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Other people have reads, what do you think of them?In post 634, innocentvillager wrote:sorry im pretty behind but basically i have no reads since sesq and a50 died and they were the ones i had reads on-
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So does anyone have any thoughts at all on what I'm saying about GL?
I'm saying that his feeling that he might die seems like an easy thing to say as an excuse for not having more to say and a feeling he might generally have but didn't make sense if he was actually paying attention to how yesterday went. Does anyone think GL was the likely kill?
GL responds that he has no reason to say that as scum, which is just the most weak-ass response ever. And scum would never say they thought they'd be the NK? Really? Does anyone think that's a good response?
Eragon seemed to agree that this was weird but is more interested in saying how good GL's reads are.-
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The whole point of having a "fake" day is so that we get people interacting with each other and talking about what cases are good and bad, for the benefit of the vig and for the benefit of later days. If we're not going to do that we may as well just end the day and not burn everyone out, but I really think we should get 2 wagons going so if the vig isn't one of the arrogant hyper-confident-in-their-reads players, they could choose between them. We don't need to fake lynch someone, but getting to that stage where we have the two wagons and no one wants to budge seems very useful. Sitting around seeing who can get prodded first less so.-
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It’s not like we have to differentiate Mime from Mafia here by the way, not-town is good enough because we’re not actually lynching.
“Vote” Count
FA_Q2 (2?):Nero, GL?
GuiltyLion (1):Fink
Not even “vote”ing (7):Jingle, Thor, Eragon, FA_Q2, Rocky, IV, Aristo
9 Alive
Thor for scummie (2):Thor, Aristo-
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It's almost like we're back to that point right after RVS, weak reads are the strongest reads anyone has on anyone. But if it isn't an open-and-shut case no one wants to talk about it.In post 646, Jingle wrote:Eh. It’s a weak scumread reason, more indicative of not paying any attention to the thread than anything else imo. The response is dumb (why avoid claiming NAI tells as scum) but I don’t think it’s so much scummy as lazy here. And lazy has pretty much been established.-
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A big part of the problem is that when like 4 players have reads there isn't going to be a compelling case on anyone. And NKs will be less informative.
Pretty sure everyone agrees with No Lynch today. But people not voting No Lynch also aren't voting to end the day earlier. I'm happy to end the day if no one wants to actually talk.-
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Talk about empty shade
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This is also a nice misrep of what I'm saying (echoing my disagreement with Jingle so it kind of reinforces) while putting the onus on me to prove something I'm not trying to prove.In post 658, GuiltyLion wrote:You've done none of the legwork to show why me being lazy = me being scum.
In post 624, GuiltyLion wrote:
uh, if I were scum you'd realize I'd have no need at all to post the fact that I thought I might die?In post 608, Fink wrote:Aside from the thing from yesterday, the fact that he thinks he'd be an NK target seems like a standard assumption that's easy to have as mafia.
So scum would have no need to say that, therefore GL must be town, but he's not saying scum would never say that, I'm misrepping him.In post 658, GuiltyLion wrote:
I'm not saying that scum would never say that. That's a misrepIn post 644, Fink wrote:GL responds that he has no reason to say that as scum, which is just the most weak-ass response ever. And scum would never say they thought they'd be the NK? Really? Does anyone think that's a good response?
Lazy mafia, not lazy town.
Sadly, we can't accuse GL of being mafia unless we're willing to commit to pre-flip associations of his partner, because no one in this game couldpossiblybe partners with GL...-
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In post 680, Nero Cain wrote:
Is this post meant to be some kind of joke? This is most of the player list. Why are you on it? Why are Rocky and GL the only ones not on it?In post 656, Fink wrote:So people who need to get shot sooner rather than later:
Nero, Aristo, Thor, Jingle, IV, Fink, FA_Q2, Eragon
...
It does seem likely that there is scum in this list-
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Fink Goon
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By the way, Thor,
Why is this Rocky laziness scummier than GL laziness? I think you're saying that it's manipulative and so more of a scum mindset, right? But why is GL not pinging you as manipulative?In post 659, Thor665 wrote:I didn't really want to say till he had a chance to respond to me calling it laughable - that he doubled down on it reads as scummy to me.
Basically his case is 'Thor is scum more than other people voting Lane because Thor tried to get me onto Lane"
Which is all well and good as a theory case - except, as I pointed out in my defense, i also tried to get him onto DT.
He then counters it by quoting me doing *exactly what I said I did* but then handwaves it by pointing out that in debating him I used Lane as my example as opposed to DT as my example which...somehow means really I was clever Lane Mime partner, mwah-haha...?
It's really bad and shows blindness/not actually caring.
I think he's probably some value of scum for that play.
Like you put GL on the level of IV and Eragon and I don't get it.-
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This is some next level PR fishing right here.In post 757, Eragon wrote:welp...
I hope he wouldn't do that with an informative role.
shall we just go raging into that good night?-
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Well I got back from the wedding and immediately lost internet all day, it's back on now but I'm exhausted. Real life is a bitch lately. Anyway, should have plenty of time to get to this tomorrow, presumably.
I think it's nuts to lynch anyone but Thor today, or to No Lynch. We need to lynch Thor eventually, and it's as safe as No Lynching. And we should please wait for me to catch up and actually say something today before ending it.-
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Finally getting to this, sorry. Life has been hectic and honestly haven't been looking forward to this, but need to get on it.
I feel like this basically clears the Aristo slot from being Mime. Like I could see a mime hypothetically saying this but as the only post that wasn't an RVS vote before getting replaced out?In post 84, Lady Angel wrote:Unvote
I fail to see him as mafia-aligned right now.
That being said, the possibility of lynching a mime actually makes me kind of scared to lynch. How viable would no lynch be as an option?-
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Aristo's lack of understanding of what's going on theory-wise seems genuine to me. I could see faking it, in which case good job, but I can't really see him sharing a PT with Thor.In post 703, Aristophanes wrote:Why are we no lynching wgen it is likely we can avoid a mime hit? We only increase the chances of it each day.
VOTE: Rocky
The soft defense of Thor, for example in 668, could make him mafia but that could come from town making an effort to be useful for a change too, and I just don't see Aristo as buddies with Thor. Fairly strong town.-
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I think Jingle is more likely to be Mime than Mafia, still torn on Mime vs VT
In post 415, Jingle wrote:
I could find my way onto a Lane wagon or an Eragon wagon at this point, but neither had any steam when I subbed in and we're kinda at deadline. If you build it I will come though.In post 403, Thor665 wrote:
I like the idea of progressing the game, but the A50 run is pretty weak.In post 389, Jingle wrote:Thor, my wagon has just as much steam as yours, a loud mouthed asshole who actually cares about pushing it through, and managed to destroy two vanity wagons. Can I interest you in the sweet smell of actually progressing the game?
Do you actually townread Nero and/or Lane right now? If so - why?
I do think Nero is likely town, although it's a weak read at best. 1st, his jump to A50 reads as a genuine scumread. 2nd, his reads progression about a50 matches up with mine fairly nicely. 3rd, the posts in which he does content (particularly 299) feel like they're actually going somewhere. Regardless, I think that my A50 wagon is clearly superior to your Nero wagon.
This is part of what convinced me to give the Lane wagon fire drill a chance, Mime points for Jingle here. I mean, I probably deserve Mimepoints too, but the point is Jingle didn't start the wagon on Mime, he pushed for someone else to start it. Jingle could have done the same thing I did and also gotten support from a50, Thor, and while I hadn't said so very clearly, the fact that I was still trying to push GL over a50 or Sesq should have been a pretty strong hint I didn't like either wagon.In post 448, Jingle wrote:443 is a really tempting post. REALLY tempting.
UNVOTE:
I need to think when I'm a little less drunk, but I may actually be in favor of forcing the no lynch over either of these lynches at the moment.-
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Basically, I'm feeling apathetic because we're just going to do this thing where we lynch me and then ignore my reads because I was the guy so dumb he got lynched, so obviously terrible reads.
Anyway, Eragon, all the stuff I've said about GL on previous days, and his generally feeling manipulative but not toward his own lynch.
VOTE: Thor
I'm going to look at IV before GL, I have less bias there, it's not much of a read, and I spent much time trying to figure him out this game.-
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Like notice how GL just sort of instinctively discredits or argues with anything I say? That could be confbiased town, but I'm much more inclined to think it's Mafia Goon trying to get another mislynch on someone he doesn't think is likely to be Mime.
GL has a sort of blanket discrediting of everything I say.
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