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In post 23, Seanzie wrote:I've analyzed all the posts in the thread and even though only half the playerbase has checked in, I have determined the wolf team beyond a reasonable doubt. I'd tell you all who the wolves are, but that'd make the game unfun for everyone else, so I'll hold off for now.
Also, hello everyone!
Spoiler: disclaimer
the term "beyond a reasonable doubt" here means with probability exactly 1/220.
I’d take those odds tbf
KT is town for the response to schadd
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Post #32 (isolation #2) » Sat Jul 23, 2022 3:54 am
Postby redcardinal »
I think seanzie's magic cold read is technically better than completely random? there should be 286 possible combinations in a 13 player normal with 3 scum if my math is right
In post 23, Seanzie wrote:I've analyzed all the posts in the thread and even though only half the playerbase has checked in, I have determined the wolf team beyond a reasonable doubt. I'd tell you all who the wolves are, but that'd make the game unfun for everyone else, so I'll hold off for now.
Also, hello everyone!
Spoiler: disclaimer
the term "beyond a reasonable doubt" here means with probability exactly 1/220.
I’d take those odds tbf
KT is town for the response to schadd
is this a meta read?
not exactly
it's not KT meta, more just general expectation based on when I've made posts like the one KT did
In post 32, redcardinal wrote:I think seanzie's magic cold read is technically better than completely random? there should be 286 possible combinations in a 13 player normal with 3 scum if my math is right
And how many solves do you think I considered where I was scum?
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Post #111 (isolation #9) » Sun Jul 24, 2022 3:44 am
Postby redcardinal »
In post 97, Haschel Cedricson wrote:By the by, while I'm interested in everyone's thoughts re: my last question, I'm particularly interested in a response from redcardinal and hope that it is in her next post.
everything but the reading people better when they push me bit. I can understand most of seanzie's explained thought process from a town pov, but the way he asks questions and explains his bait feels kind of fake, like scum that is too self aware and absorbed in their own play
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Post #112 (isolation #10) » Sun Jul 24, 2022 3:50 am
Postby redcardinal »
honestly though d1 my thought process kind of goes in circles due to lack of concrete info, I'm happy just voting after whoever posts the least which at this point is fancypants, what do you think seanzie?
In post 112, redcardinal wrote:honestly though d1 my thought process kind of goes in circles due to lack of concrete info, I'm happy just voting after whoever posts the least which at this point is fancypants, what do you think seanzie?
I disagree that D1 does not have concrete info. Reads don't need flips or mech, granted those things can help.
I am not at this time interested in going after Fancypants. Why is this targeted at me specifically?
In post 97, Haschel Cedricson wrote:By the by, while I'm interested in everyone's thoughts re: my last question, I'm particularly interested in a response from redcardinal and hope that it is in her next post.
everything but the reading people better when they push me bit. I can understand most of seanzie's explained thought process from a town pov, but the way he asks questions and explains his bait feels kind of fake, like scum that is too self aware and absorbed in their own play
Why doesn't the "reading people better when they push me" part not make sense?
I don't understand why you would read people better when they push you as opposed to when they push someone else
In post 112, redcardinal wrote:honestly though d1 my thought process kind of goes in circles due to lack of concrete info, I'm happy just voting after whoever posts the least which at this point is fancypants, what do you think seanzie?
what do you think of Galron?
first pick right now for scum. worse to actually post and say nothing than even to not post, was wondering if seanzie would pick up on that. might just read some of his games and see if he's always this deep in his own head or if he does this as scum to obfuscate
In post 112, redcardinal wrote:honestly though d1 my thought process kind of goes in circles due to lack of concrete info, I'm happy just voting after whoever posts the least which at this point is fancypants, what do you think seanzie?
what do you think of Galron?
first pick right now for scum. worse to actually post and say nothing than even to not post, was wondering if seanzie would pick up on that. might just read some of his games and see if he's always this deep in his own head or if he does this as scum to obfuscate
Eh, this is not a good way to read someone IMO. It is barely 24 hours into the game and there are tons of NAI reasons someone could have only posted once by now. Smells more like feeling out LHF tbh.
Galron has 6 useless posts, not 1.. Unless you're talking about someone else?
I'm assuming the "worse to actually post and say nothing than even to not post, was wondering if seanzie would pick up on that." was about Fancypants since Red specifically asked me about fancypants (so saying "wondering if Seanzie would pick up on that" makes little sense if they were talking about Galron.
In post 112, redcardinal wrote:honestly though d1 my thought process kind of goes in circles due to lack of concrete info, I'm happy just voting after whoever posts the least which at this point is fancypants, what do you think seanzie?
what do you think of Galron?
first pick right now for scum. worse to actually post and say nothing than even to not post, was wondering if seanzie would pick up on that. might just read some of his games and see if he's always this deep in his own head or if he does this as scum to obfuscate
Eh, this is not a good way to read someone IMO. It is barely 24 hours into the game and there are tons of NAI reasons someone could have only posted once by now. Smells more like feeling out LHF tbh.
Galron has 6 useless posts, not 1.. Unless you're talking about someone else?
I'm assuming the "worse to actually post and say nothing than even to not post, was wondering if seanzie would pick up on that." was about Fancypants since Red specifically asked me about fancypants (so saying "wondering if Seanzie would pick up on that" makes little sense if they were talking about Galron.
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Post #143 (isolation #20) » Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:55 am
Postby redcardinal »
seanzie, my stance on you is leaning scum, since twice now you've made these kind of weird posts wondering why people aren't having specific responses to things you've said, as if you're very focused on how people are perceiving you in particular, moreso than I would expect town to be. I'm wavering a little though, because I think you might just be like that, and reading your other games isn't helping very much, so at this point I'd rather spend my time getting reads on other people
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Post #186 (isolation #23) » Sun Jul 24, 2022 5:44 pm
Postby redcardinal »
In post 163, Galron wrote:Redcardinal what's scummy about few words on day 1 of day 1? You'd rather no posts at all. I don't understand that
well I'd like to get rid of people who contribute little so we don't have to worry about them on later days. with lurkers you either hit a hard to read scum or hit less than useful town. however, I do think engaging just enough to exist without actually saying anything is more scummy than saying nothing at all tbh, and I'd be happy to vote you today for it
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Post #220 (isolation #24) » Mon Jul 25, 2022 3:56 am
Postby redcardinal »
I want to sit on galron for a few days and see what happens, give the people who haven't said much time to weigh in. galron, what's your take on seanzie?
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Post #223 (isolation #26) » Mon Jul 25, 2022 4:06 am
Postby redcardinal »
In post 221, redcardinal wrote:also I want literally everyone's take on galron before we even get within one vote of it happening
specifically eateroftime, fancypants replacement, eiralox, and kirigiri. post your hot takes to be rated. no rush eiralox, but I am looking closely at you on this one.
In post 220, redcardinal wrote:I want to sit on galron for a few days and see what happens, give the people who haven't said much time to weigh in. galron, what's your take on seanzie?
I guess after thinking about it I can kind of see the reaction test thing but I'm still not sure why the "this is a non-RVS vote." It sounds almost like the latter was trying to distract from the former. But overall they're slightly townie I guess. I mean I can at least follow them to a point.
In post 46, Seanzie wrote:Kinda surprised no one called out my "hmmm..." post as suspicious.
Anyways, VOTE: Galron. This is a non-RVS vote.
What about it is supposed to be suspicious?
I've seen wolves "hmm..." posts to make it look like they're thinking hard about something while not actually giving any takes, and they can later use that post to fit pretty much any narrative (i.e. if I was a wolf and later today I push Galron, I could be like "see, I suspected them all the way back here!" vs if I decide to townread them, I could be like "yeah, I thought a lot about them as early as this and decided they look townie!".
This is TvT, I had similar misunderstandings as town and got dogpiled by other townies.
This looks like TMI.
What "misunderstandings" are being had here?
This is the only direct accusation of TMI sean makes.
Wanna run that by me again Galron?
this is easily a misread or misunderstanding, I don't see how it's useful right now. reads as scum bussing to me
In post 237, redcardinal wrote:this is easily a misread or misunderstanding, I don't see how it's useful right now. reads as scum bussing to me
Can you point at what is a misunderstanding and what is bussing?
sure, I think you could have easily just misunderstood or misread there being multiple claims of tmi or whatever. as for bussing, I'm not seeing the purpose of gamma's questions right now other than potentially clearing her if you happen to flip scum
In post 221, redcardinal wrote:also I want literally everyone's take on galron before we even get within one vote of it happening
specifically eateroftime, fancypants replacement, eiralox, and kirigiri. post your hot takes to be rated. no rush eiralox, but I am looking closely at you on this one.
galron is low effort low info low input. i don't see it advancing the game, but i don't see it as scum either this early. it just is and only if it is still is so some days from now will i have any real reason to speak about it. garlon doesn't seem that miffed about the wagon on 'em, i would be active personally if i were at -2 but i would also be wholly dismissive if such a large wagon formed on me so early. i'm also low input low effort rn and it seems from various responses to me low info, so rn meh galron is galron? i never meta so i have no other input i guess.
p-edit: but garlon after logging in now seems to be going after the wagoneers so yeah we'll see i guess.
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Post #363 (isolation #40) » Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:39 pm
Postby redcardinal »
In post 356, Crescent wrote:And why do I look really bad, specifically, given I'm probably the person in the game taking this train the most objectively? I don't trust the player, but I also don't trust the train.
I've made more of an actual case on him than 3 of the people who are voting him, while questioning said people whom have not adequately made their own case, and you're one of them. KT popping in to defend their vote and doing nothing else did nothing for me. So you get to be next: Why exactly are you so set on him, because you're never indicated your vote as anything but "ride it and see what happens".
You placed 5 votes in the first 121 posts,...
In post 220, redcardinal wrote:I want to sit on galron for a few days and see what happens, give the people who haven't said much time to weigh in. galron, what's your take on seanzie?
...And this is effectively your only stated reason for being on him.
What's your case for him being scum?
I have a tendency to throw my vote all over the place. Having a hard time believing you really truly think my vote is weak. but anyways, as I mentioned before I want to throw someone inactive out day 1, and galron at the time I voted him was both fairly inactive, and though there were of course less active people I figured he had posted enough that voting him would get him to talk some more, and also once again I think the meager amount he was posting looked like fluff to fill up space. seems simple because it is, I tend to occam's razor these things bc trying to analyze too many layers deep is a good way to get all confused and distracted from obvious stuff happening around you in this game imo. the idea that just wanting to sit there and see what happens is effectively my only stated reason for being on him is a lie and I'm a bit astonished at how bold it is.
As for why you would look bad if galron flips scum, that would be because you're defending the stuffing out of him right now at a time it would be optimal to do so for scum. questioning things is not a neutral action bc you have to choose what to question, and that decision reveals things about you
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Post #367 (isolation #42) » Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:46 pm
Postby redcardinal »
I'm uncomfortable with how many townreads kt has and how little analysis is happening in any of his posts, but crescent is pinging the fuck out of me too and I don't know if this is scum on scum or what
In post 112, redcardinal wrote:honestly though d1 my thought process kind of goes in circles due to lack of concrete info, I'm happy just voting after whoever posts the least which at this point is fancypants, what do you think seanzie?
what do you think of Galron?
first pick right now for scum. worse to actually post and say nothing than even to not post, was wondering if seanzie would pick up on that. might just read some of his games and see if he's always this deep in his own head or if he does this as scum to obfuscate
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Post #377 (isolation #49) » Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:17 pm
Postby redcardinal »
can I ask, what about his burst spew felt town to you? iirc he gave out a bunch of half-hearted townreads and then agreed that his play looked scummy and that he understands why he'd be voted for it, which is something I scumread like hell
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Post #379 (isolation #50) » Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:23 pm
Postby redcardinal »
the problem I have with you crescent is that I pretty much agree with all your suspicions, but when you put all the pins up together they all look like they're trying desperately to point away from galron while you even admit that you also scumread him
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Post #380 (isolation #51) » Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:25 pm
Postby redcardinal »
I don't see the why, why would your questions be pointed specifically like this? and it might be a difference in style or something, idk- as I mentioned I like throwing my vote all over the place, and according to the games you've played your play so far looks legit, you don't tend to vote a lot, etc- but surely you must have some convictions
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Post #383 (isolation #53) » Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:30 pm
Postby redcardinal »
In post 381, Crescent wrote:When 3 of the 4 lowest posters in the game are on the train, and 2 of them are inactive, I'm going to scrutinize that train 100% of the time. Whether I scumread the player independently or not is ultimately secondary. Even if Galron is scum here, there's a good possibility that one of the voters on him is scum. Pressing on these voters is something that should be done
before[/i[ a flip.
yeah that makes sense, all stuff I'm down for. last question before I go to bed bc I obviously need it, who would you wanna see flip the most today?
In post 367, redcardinal wrote:I'm uncomfortable with how many townreads kt has and how little analysis is happening in any of his posts, but crescent is pinging the fuck out of me too and I don't know if this is scum on scum or what
Mala is doing the same thing, very little analysis and a lot of townreads. Do you think that Mala is scum for this too?
I have no way to judge the seriousness of the townblocking attempts but yeah, I'm very uncomfy with mala
In post 301, Gamma Emerald wrote:Crescent repeatedly attempting to undermine the Galron wagon makes me think she could be scum, if Galron is but Sean/Eir isnt
I wouldn't say I've undermined the wagon, but I have questioned it. Three of the votes on that wagon are objectively very weak (Mala, Red, and Kitty), and the votes include 3 of the 4 lowest posters in the entire game.
And it's weird for you to jump to that conclusion because you know I question
everything
. You should know enough to be worried if I
didn't
question it.
The votes on Galron being lazy doesn’t mean that Galron isn’t scum. Galron could be scum and the votes are either bussing or lazy town, Galron could be town and the votes could be scum jumping on a wagon or lazy town. I do think that Galron is scum, and I think that KT is bussing Galron based on their interactions. The others votes on Galron aren’t necessarily AI.
This is exactly what I said yesterday: Galron is likely scum, there's a good chance one scum is on him, and it's likely KT if there is.
But my bigger concern isn't even precisely that. If Galron is scum, KT's vote on him looks worst. If he's town, Mala's vote on him looks worst. I am not convinced he's scum, and I see a scenario with either flip that reflects poorly with on one of those two. The play is to pressure both, so whatever flip we do get, we have answers before we get it.
And for the record, Mala's vote doesn't feel like a bus at all, and KT's vote doesn't feel like scum voting town at all. I think the likelihood of one being town also goes up regardless of the flip.
Oh also for some reason I thought there were like 50 new posts. The hell number did I think this ended at last night.
T3 town and haschel a little, I like people that come to similar conclusions as me. though I don't really know what to feel about crescent like, I just wanna point out that the above post includes the phrase "galron is likely scum" and "I'm not convinced he's scum" but also like... it's a good line of reasoning, there's some good questioning going on here, I definitely also want to see more from these two, specifically some scumreads from both of them, and a response to my accusation of townreading too many people. gives me the HEEBIEJEEBIES