White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

[Ankamius]

Here's where I'm at right now.

Town:
BlueBloodedToffee
Oversoul

Weak Town:
TellTaleHeart
ZachRulez

Weak Scum:
Cogito Ergo Sum
theelkspeaks

Scum:
Llamarble
Psyche

Everyone not listed hasn't done anything that caught my attention yet.

VOTE: Psyche

[Ankamius]

Anak; Would like some reasoning or explanation behind your reads list in Post 139 specifically the reads on BTT, Oversoul, Llama and CES.

Quick note is that I posted before anyone else in my team had posted thoughts in the game.

BBT: I liked #52 and his #57 echoed what I thought about Aeronaut's post as well.

Oversoul: He felt town based on his interactions with Llamarble about the tokens; since I have a scumread on Llamarble independent of this, I'm putting more stake in this than I usually would.

Llamarble: He felt scum based on his interactions with Oversoul about the tokens. I didn't like this post either; the questions feel incredibly empty. The way he reacted to the 'scuffle' at the top of page 5 looks wooden.

CES: The way he posted towards you on page 2 pinged me; it's not very strong and I'm getting disagreed with in my PT, so it's virtually null at this point.

[Ankamius]

Ankamius can be #3 for now.

Can you go into more detail here please?

[Ankamius]

Okay. What do your teammates think about this game so far?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Llamarble

Your reads make no sense.

Psyche: You townread him early on, then later on switch to scumreading him here for the way he's going about reading the game. This is dissonant with your read on Psyche in your reads post, which I assume is part of your null pile for a lack of content. Then he's suddenly town? This is a non-reason, since I can't make sense of this in any way that doesn't apply to a lot more than just him and Zach.

Cheery Dog: You put a lot of effort into pushing Cheery Dog based on the scum token and putting an emphasis on having to have double the convincing to start townreading the slot, but then you admit that his ISO looks more town than scum (neutral at worst implies net positive), but suddenly this post appears which implies that the opposite despite the fact that Cheery Dog had not posted even once in that timeframe.

[Ankamius]

I'm not voting theelkspeaks. Sorry.

[Ankamius]

After speaking with my team about the game state tonight, I believe that all three of the major wagons up to this point (theelkspeaks, Psyche, and Cheery Dog) are on town.

[Ankamius]

Quick question for you Cheery Dog.

I don't think I've found enough town in anybody yet to do that. At least not until you asked. At this stage I think Pysche and Aeronaut.

Scum reads are probably Llama, BBT and elk.

Vote would probably be on Llama, but it's waiting on what may happen with his push on me before it's placed.

Has your reads changed since this post? If so, what has changed?

[Ankamius]

Not quite entirely reserved from there.

I have no idea what you mean by this.

[Ankamius]

373 - Ank, reads? Planning on contributing any time soon?

I'm waiting until I can connect with my team about stuff before I start getting my hands really dirty again. We came up with a sensical theory last time we got together, but there's been a few things happening that makes the theory feel less likely.

I've basically been operating in that mindset for the past couple of days and my strong points don't include altering that kind of mindset early on in the game, so I want to see what kind of adjustments we have to do before getting fully back into the game.

[Ankamius]

Ank, I heavily dislike that you're pretty much relying on your team to play this game for you. Is there a particular reason for that?

It's more how I'm looking at the game, since I'm doing it in a completely different way than I've done in any other game in recent memory. My typical way of thinking is clashing with how we're seeing the gamestate and I'm running the discrepancies past them first since I'm not very skilled at fixing those kinds of discrepancies.

[Ankamius]

If it helps, Antihero's last post removes a lot of doubt in my mind that the slot's town.

[Ankamius]

Expect a post from me later today when I'm not on a tablet. I'm aware of the questions I was asked and will answer them then.

[Ankamius]

Oh I'll answer this since I am pretty sure no one here knows my play style as both alignments. I'm far better as town than scum.

[Ankamius]

Do you want to keep voting for 'marble, Ankamius, knowing that in both scenarios, Cheery Dog literally started the game more than 5 times as likely to be scum as him?

Two teams in the initial round of RNG to get into the roster got over 90 points.

In regular English, I am unimpressed with this type of argument when it's still entirely possible to beat the odds. Until I feel that playing the setup can almost ensure a win, I only use it as a supplement to enforce the reads I already have; it's never going to be strong enough to entirely change my reads.

Ank, would like you to elaborate on the "theory" that your team had in Post 390 even if it's not something you believe in.

Sure.

Bulbazak's theory revolved around the points that (a) you and Llamarble were playing like scummates and (b) scum in general would be more likely to put a heavy focus on token discussion or general setup spec over scumhunting.

(a) Most of this point is on how you two treat each other.

#79: Llamarble puts Regfan as town for token reasons, but specifically says that the slot hasn't towned very hard yet.
#136: Llamarble puts the claimed town token users at the top of the list over the people that are being townread based on play. This is pretty interesting after taking (b) into account.
#161: Regfan puts Llamarble just below the strong town pile.
#220: Llamarble's post here was the most interesting post in this set for a few reasons, which Bulbazak and I both scumread for independent reasons: 1) The way he goes into the Empire read and very sharply goes back on the suspicion he was getting on the Regfan slot for Empire's actions in the same post, and (2) because this post is formatted differently from every other post he's made so far in the game. Llamarble's posting up to that point had been putting thoughts on new lines, even when they're parts of the same type of thought. Most of this post is typed in a paragraph, even though one of the most drastic changes in thought are within it. This can easily indicate a change in mindset in making that post, basically that he wants to be careful about his read on Regfan. It's not too strong of a point, but it doesn't sit well with me regardless.
#247: Llamarble states he's expecting Regfan to call him confirmed town.
#272: Regfan obliges and calls Llamarble confirmed town.

Since White Flag rewards scum for trying to keep everyone alive, this type of read velocity is something that's not going to be uncommon.

(b)

A lot of Llamarble's early posting was on getting reads based on token usage over finding people who are scum; this is especially suspicious due to what his team consists. Bulba expected a lot more scumhunting earlier on than what actually happened.

Regfan's earliest posting put a heavy emphasis on mechanics and Bulba was worried about the lack of the type of analysis he's used to seeing from Regfan.

---

There's a few things that makes this theory less likely, and Bulba has been too busy to really take another look at the game yet, so I don't have any answers to how he thinks they fit into what he thinks:

a) BBT had a remarkably similar thought process to Bulba's regarding the game, yet eventually got called virtually confirmed town by both Llamarble and Regfan. This is the biggest thing that gave me pause to whether this theory was in the right ballpark or not, since BBT had already basically proven that he wasn't going to allow shenanigans like this to adjust his reads. It would've been a foolhardy scum tactic.

b) The second part of the theory is less applicable in more recent posts since both slots have started moving away from working based on mechanics and have incorporated more reads based on actual play in their posting.

So I don't know. I'm not convinced that either of your slots is town per se, but I'm less convinced that you two are scum with this strategy in mind at the bare minimum.

Here's where I'm at right now.

Town:
BlueBloodedToffee
Oversoul

Weak Town:
TellTaleHeart
ZachRulez

Weak Scum:
Cogito Ergo Sum
theelkspeaks

Scum:
Llamarble
Psyche

Everyone not listed hasn't done anything that caught my attention yet.

VOTE: Psyche

Never even knew this post existed. How is Regfan not on this list at all? How am I a strong town read?

Why is Regfan being off the list a problem? I went into the read on you later, although I'm not townreading you anymore, necessarily.

1. Not very indicative, but you noticed this post before.
2. The very first point you show any passion about whatsoever is in your disagreement with BBT's Llamarble/Regfan associations read. It's not indicative by itself, but it puts you in a much more negative light if either of those slots flip scum.
3. I'm just not seeing anything beyond the very early game in general that shows you're town. Most of your posts are fluffy and it feels like you're doing a chameleon impression when you post stuff that's not fluff... at least when it makes sense.

[Ankamius]

And now I'm going to wash my hands until they're nothing but dust because fuck making another wall like that again.

[Ankamius]

ika: Scum, mainly for these two posts.

ok so does soemone have a town case for elk or can we like lynch that slot with fire now?

cus im talking with GIF and the others and they see no reason for it to be town

ok im proxing GIF here:

@Anka, gif had an epiphany and thinks elk could be town and to sort llam is to just have ffery into game here as well

pedit: get her talking now

The bolded was made in response to me bluntly saying that I wasn't going to vote for elk.

---

I'm really not liking CES for #475. Either he's town and just completely missed why I posted that theory somehow, or he's scum trying to spin it to his own advantage. I don't see town purposely seeing the whole picture and thinking that was the extent of my scumhunting.

Although I will say that the reason I only answered questions yesterday is because I was basically dead on my feet. I HAD reads, but never posted them in the thread.

I still like Psyche for scum; BBT is virtually conftown if he does indeed flip town, although I'm townreading the slot pretty hard anyway.

I keep ISOing Cheery Dog and I townread his overall tone every time I do so. Lynching him based on token usage is just not going to work as a case for me.

[Ankamius]

Really just need to spend more time figuring out Psyche/Anti more now but feeling much better about my reads and the gamestate now then I was a few days ago.

Anti is probably town. It's hard to exclude the possibility of Psychescum but Ank just looks that much scummier.

I would suggest you look at Ank with an eye of using team mates' opinions in lieu of content/scumhunting. Look at #257 and how he has absolutely no follow-up; he doesn't connect it to anything; he doesn't push against the elkwagon (when he makes his next post, the elkwagon still exists but he's asking Cheery a silly question). If #257 is true, I would think that pretty relevant, but he seems content just to have shared his team mates' opinions. In #466, he does at least criticize Bulbazak's theory on two points but note that his criticism seems to unquestionably accept bulba's scumhunting method; it feels more like he's trying to extrapolate what bulbazak would think than come up with his own stuff; he also doesn't seem to connect bulbazak's theory in any way to any reads he might have - he manages to go an entire theory of you being scum without ever giving his opinion on your play and his conclusion doesn't even seem to distinguish between you and 'marble even though he's voting for 'marble and given reasons for doing so previously.

1. I attempted to try using that way of thinking for this game when it initially came up; that's why it feels so jagged. I completely abandoned it for my own reads and will be leaving it to Bulbazak.
2. I've mentioned that I don't think the theory as it is works anymore. You're also completely ignoring that I was specifically asked to give that theory in the thread; it was never meant to give any specific contribution from my own end.

UNVOTE: Llamarble

[Ankamius]

I would be totally okay with an ika wagon.

Rereading Aeronaut now.

[Ankamius]

oh man my troll/spam post mood is going up

ehuhuhuhuhuhuhuh

does anoyne here have mollie on their teeam? i noticed she repalced in

pedit: ppl are tabling me? can i has quotes

AFAIK, she has no read on you.

[Ankamius]

Right. Aeronaut.

1. Sees theelkspeaks as a scumspect early on, then asks Oversoul why he suspects that same slot, then never mentions Oversoul again.
2. None of his thoughts are joined together in general. He comments on stuff and asks questions, but there's no sense that he cares about the responses or questions.

I'm willing to vote this slot but I'll wait because ika exists.

[Ankamius]

I'm going to hammer if he gets to L-1 just to ruin ika's day.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: ika

Good point regarding that.

I'm fine with lynching either today; I won't be fussed either way.

[Ankamius]

I read that pn a work break and forgot to respond.

I'll do it next time I'm at a desktop.

[Ankamius]

I have more shit to say and I'm still at work, so I can't say it yet.

I will consider any hammer before I get to this game a scumclaim. No exceptions.

[Ankamius]

And don't let CES pressure you into doing it, either.

[Ankamius]

I check threads when I get up before work and on my breaks, and generally I have 20 minutes maximum. I work nine hour shifts, so you'll have to forgive me for that.

[Ankamius]

I will be around in probably 4-5 hours, so be patient.

PEdit: that post took 5 minutes to write. If you think I have the time to read, then bring up all the the relevant stuff to refresh my memory, then give a response from that, then you're crazy.

[Ankamius]

I still like Psyche for scum; BBT is virtually conftown if he does indeed flip town

, although I'm townreading the slot pretty hard anyway.

Bolded is going to have to be explained for me.

Ank, still waiting on a response to the above.

After running around in ISOs for about 20 minutes and then returning to this post, I'm pretty sure the problem was I misworded Psyche flipping scum as town. The reason is because their interactions looks really jagged on Psyche's side whenever they have them.

481 - Ank, why are you hard town reading me?

Mainly because what you're posting looks genuine. Your pushes make sense and you're giving a strong impression of legitimately trying to solve the game over everything else.

[Ankamius]

I have more shit to say and I'm still at work, so I can't say it yet.

I will consider any hammer before I get to this game a scumclaim. No exceptions.

You've had plenty of time to say things while this wagon on Aero has been sitting at 5 votes.

I said what I wanted about the wagon. I'm mostly just not ready to end the day yet.

[Ankamius]

Multiple people insisting that they're fine and comfortable being the hammer vote but not being the L-1 vote is nonsensical and stupid.

Chances are everyone is doing this because ika loves to hammer anything and everything no matter what the situation is, so I treat any L-1 vote around him like a hammer.

[Ankamius]

She hasn't really said all that much about this game. She read at least up to page 12 and the only reads she gave was what I assume is a townread on Psyche and a definite scumread on Llamarble.

[Ankamius]

ank has mollie said anything yet? are you still scum reading me? if so why?

I guess I forgot this part.

I am still scumreading you and I posted why not all that long ago. My ISO isn't that long and I don't mention you very much, so it should be really easy to find.

[Ankamius]

I'd have to reread to answer both questions.

[Ankamius]

I would be totally okay with an ika wagon.

Rereading Aeronaut now.

How come he has become readable today now?

I can't really describe it per se, but something about the way ika and his team went about the elk wagon feels way off. I especially don't really understand GIF suddenly reaching out to me about the elk wagon when we're on opposite sides of that issue to suddenly agree with me.

I wouldn't be surprised if something was lost in translation, but I've playing a hydra game with GIF before and I can't figure out why he would suddenly switch his read on elk like this. The only time I remember him having a sudden read change like that out of nowhere was when he mistook one player for another, and I don't exactly see that being a likely possibility here.

[Ankamius]

...right.

I'm going to reset my reads and look at stuff. Probably tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

so GIF and I are considering switching games.

who think yay and who thinks nay (outside of BBT who has yet to admit his contridiction or justifying his smatics)

Yes please. It would help me get back into the game if he's town and your slot would be much easier to read if scum.

[Ankamius]

Right, so Oversoul's town. theelkspeaks is probably town. I feel okay about Regfan. ika still looks slimy, but I'll wait to see if GIF replaces in and try to read him instead. CES is scum.

I have no idea why Llamarble was killed. My theory of most of the scum being off wagon combines the factors of how scummy Aero looked, how the wagon formed, and where the nightkill was. (With the idea being that scum would tend to kill where they're not hiding.)

Can you go into detail more here please?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

[Ankamius]

I like Cheery Dog's 'push' on Zack on a surface level this day phase, but overall his day 2 play doesn't look proactive at all. Nullishscum so far.

[Ankamius]

theelkspeaks: Bulbazak wants to know if #387 is paraphrased.

Ank, explain that CES scum read for me especially in light of your "reads reset" comment in Post 683.

I hatehatehate his comment about one slot in his scumlist being town making the rest more likely. Nothing about that post looked town to me.

Right, so Oversoul's town. theelkspeaks is probably town. I feel okay about Regfan. ika still looks slimy, but I'll wait to see if GIF replaces in and try to read him instead. CES is scum.

I have no idea why Llamarble was killed. My theory of most of the scum being off wagon combines the factors of how scummy Aero looked, how the wagon formed, and where the nightkill was. (With the idea being that scum would tend to kill where they're not hiding.)

Can you go into detail more here please?

It's the zachrulez (tm) wagon analyzer that consists of how I see things from my own point of view. It should be pretty easy to actually see that point of view. I think my position is pretty clear and that your question delves more into gaining activity by making a theory argument that won't actually make any real productive mark in the game.

Don't even try this crap. If it should be so easy to see this point of view, then it shouldn't be difficult to explain at all either.

If Aeronaut was so scummy, why would scum be off the wagon? Scum would just as easily have hopped on to get towncred.
How does the way the wagon formed indicate scum would be off the wagon? I can't think of a single situation where scum would specifically want to all be off of a town wagon unless they really needed that slot alive, which I strongly doubt is the case here.
Why would Llamarble dying indicate scum would be off the wagon? This one just mystifies me, since it more likely indicates that town were the ones that started the wagon... which means scum would want to hop on for towncred.

[Ankamius]

Ankamius: Think he could easily be scum, and I don't really know why he suspects who he does. Does he think Cheery Dog is town? Why? Why is Ika scum? Why is CES scum?

Already answered CES-scum. I don't have a read on Cheery Dog right now. Ika's nullish scum; his posts today rub me the wrong way but not in a red-alert type of way.

[Ankamius]

ika: What are your current reads? I wouldn't complain about having GIFs reads either since I keep hearing he's paying attention to the game.

[Ankamius]

I think ank is trying to sound too protown. I haven't decided if I think it's a product of being scum or team mafia and wanting to make a good impression.

wat

[Ankamius]

RegFan: Go look at CES' ISO and look at how he speaks to and about both Cheery Dog and me. Do you notice anything?

[Ankamius]

Tammy, while you're here; same question.

[Ankamius]

Unfortunate pagetop is unfortunate.

Tammy: Go look at CES' ISO and tell me what you think about how he speaks to/about CD and me.

[Ankamius]

I'm asking you what you think about CES when you look at how he speaks to and about both Cheery Dog and me, especially how they compare to his reads.

[Ankamius]

Bullet point case will have to wait a while.

The main gist I'm getting at is that CES is much more dismissive and aggressive against me and a lot more calm and inquisitive against Cheery Dog throughout the game, yet apparently Cheery Dog was a stronger scumspect until very recently.

It all indicates to me that either he's scum with CD and willing to keep the option of finding a way out of his read open (watch, if somehow I get lynched, he'll weasel out of it somehow), or he found a juicy set people to mislynch and thought CD was the least threatening person.

The dissonance doesn't make sense to me.

[Ankamius]

I don't even need to claim tokens. I'm just going to outright say I'd have swapped out of a scum role by now.

I can say exactly the same thing (and it's provable). Would you say that's a strong argument for me being town?

[Ankamius]

Antihero what's your read on Tammy?

[Ankamius]

Ank, do you have playing experience with CES?

If so can you make any statement toward how accurately you would think CES town would be able to read you?

I know of two games we both played one. One was a large normal you modded a few years back, although CES replaced in far after I died. The second one was a mini sometime later where he was lynched D1 as town. I was scum that game. I don't remember him paying any particular attention to me that game, either.

So no, I wouldn't expect him to have any idea of how I play.

Antihero what's your read on Tammy?

What's your read on me?

Strong town.

[Ankamius]

potato

how are you

[Ankamius]

I'm on it.

I'll get to the rest of the questions and other stuff tomorrow. Work kicked my ass this week and I finally get some days off.

[Ankamius]

This game is next on my list. Expect a post shortishly.

[Ankamius]

potato

how are you

meh been better. whats your read on zach and why?

eh. I can resonate with the scum-replace-out thing, but him focusing so much on that this game for why he's town makes me doubt how true it is.

I don't even need to claim tokens. I'm just going to outright say I'd have swapped out of a scum role by now.

I can say exactly the same thing (and it's provable). Would you say that's a strong argument for me being town?

Please prove it then.

Here's every scumgame I have on site:

1. Open 336: Scales of Justice -> I replace in day 1 and my partner gets lynched the same game day. I lurk my ass off and end up obvscumming myself day 3.
2. Newbie Game 1106 -> First game on site. I obvscum at the end of day 1 and get lynched. I will grant that my associations helped carry my partner through the rest of the game to a win, but that's probably more because people didn't expect someone in their first game to play like that.
3. Mini 1446 -> I'm just kind of around day 1 and get shot by the SK night 1.
4. Open 497: Tit for Tat -> We played okay for a while, but I couldn't adapt when the two slots I was trying to mislynch got confirmed town.
5. Open 530: Stack the Deck -> Shooting the traitor got the tracker lynched, but the roleblocker singled me out and caught me immediately.
6. Open 544: Tit for Tat -> I got caught day 1, but the primary person pushing me got lynched instead. Titus did more to keep me alive all game than I did. I was firmly in most people's scumlists for most of the game. This is the only scumgame on site where I lived to endgame.
7. Robin Williams Mafia -> I had a decentish start but crappy nightkills and super lurking ended up losing the game.
8. -> I lasted several day phases, but it didn't take too long for the scumreads to start flying my way. The only reason I lasted so long was because there were a lot of distractions early game. We won because one of the scum got conftowned and the other was taken for granted as town the whole game.
9. Open579: Pick your Power -> I basically obvscummed the slot before replacing out.
10. Kobold's Lair -> I don't really count this game as a win since the entire game was a lurkfest. I just never posted and eventually town just conceded.

She hasn't really said all that much about this game. She read at least up to page 12 and the only reads she gave was what I assume is a townread on Psyche and a definite scumread on Llamarble.

What did she say about those reads that you had to assume was her reads there?

I apparently forgot about the page 3 reads she had which was llamarble+CES as town, so that exists.

She said that one of Psyche's posts made her feel like she was a Psyche alt (#89).
She also said she changed her mind on Llamarble at some point and got a scumread on him.

[Ankamius]

Antihero I still want to know your read on Tammy. I'm assuming you're townreading ika?

[Ankamius]

What's your read on RegFan?

[Ankamius]

He's the one player I want to sort out ASAP that's not already on my list.

[Ankamius]

Zachrulez: Can you ask sorry to substantiate the CES town read?

[Ankamius]

So basically, CES is town because nothing indicates scum. There's no actual town in his points either?

[Ankamius]

I would expect a stronger justification on a 'firm town read'.

[Ankamius]

mollie asked me if ika had called out to her; I said that he had but not recently and she returned with that being a bad sign. That's the entire conversation we had about it.

I'll try again, though.

[Ankamius]

So basically, CES is town because nothing indicates scum. There's no actual town in his points either?

The absence of one would imply the other?

It doesn't, especially when it's a read that is apparently fairly strong. I'm very dubious of strong reads when I can't see the reasoning for myself.

She's said his play lines up with CES town and can see his thought process from a town POV.

How many times has sotty played with CES? When I played the other game with CES I linked in my list, the meta referenced was that he's easier to catch by eventually just looking at his play and not seeing a town mindset. How does this match up?

[Ankamius]

She's actually townreading you now, last I heard.

PEdit: @Ika

[Ankamius]

Walk me through it, Anti. I don't like how much he's over blowing my early play, but there's not much else I can get a read on in his ISO.

[Ankamius]

mollie doesn't think she can read CES even on a good day, thinks that CD is a player that is much better than he looks and just needs to be engaged, and thinks BBT is town right now (doesn't think the aggression is scum) although keeping an eye on him to see if his play deteriorates is advised.

[Ankamius]

Wisdom read part of the game and it looks like we're fairly synced so far.

[Ankamius]

Anen also scummed up his slot pretty well. The way he pushed my early posts looks dead on for scum seeing a prime mislynch target; I can't see it as town since his reads were specifically stated as vague despite how overblown they are.

[Ankamius]

Tammy: Now that I look at his reads again, I think Aneninen is trying to stop a townbloc from forming. You and antihero aren't very attackable, but ika and I are easier targets. Thoughts?

[Ankamius]

I'm mostly trying to switch around my playstyle so I can be more consistent since I generally have either really strong games where I obvtown with solid reads or I just manage to fuck up the game so hard that town falls into a rut.

I never actually said I'd replace out if I was scum. I meant understanding when I said resonate.

[Ankamius]

Oh, I wasn't counting that because I said it purely to make a point.

Point taken though, I guess.

[Ankamius]

That you were using that as a defense too much and shouldn't even need it if what you're saying is true.

[Ankamius]

ok

[Ankamius]

uhhhhh I might have confused you for llamarble or someone else then, because I can't find any other instances either.

Do you understand the reference Ank?

no

[Ankamius]

a) I think Llamas death over mine makes a lot of sense from Ank!Scum

Can you detail this please?

[Ankamius]

It was actually in the opposite direction

potato

how are you

meh been better. whats your read on zach and why?

eh. I can resonate with the scum-replace-out thing, but him focusing so much on that this game for why he's town makes me doubt how true it is.

???

[Ankamius]

Can you detail this please?

Llama had a fairly decent scum-read on you yesterday whereas I had you as town; I can see you leaving me alive and shooting him whereas I think if you're town scum would have shot me and used Llama to push you.

This kinda depends. If the scumteam has teammates that know how I operate, then they'd be less likely to go that route. I'm a lot easier to have in the game when I'm disengaged and the easiest way to get me engaged and potentially make me obvtown myself is to try to push a lynch on me. It generally doesn't work unless there's role shenanigans involved.

[Ankamius]

Ank - When did llamarble use that as an excuse though?

I remember a lot of Llamarble touting how town he was and how great his towngame was throughout day 1 when he was being attacked, which is a pretty significant reason why every member of my team that was reading at the time was scumreading him.

It was less the action itself than the general thought process.

[Ankamius]

Ank - When did llamarble use that as an excuse though?

I remember a lot of Llamarble touting how town he was and how great his towngame was throughout day 1 when he was being attacked, which is a pretty significant reason why every member of my team that was reading at the time was scumreading him.

It was less the action itself than the general thought process.

That was actually one of the biggest indicators that Marble was completely town. I think my biggest surprise there is that Mollie is on your team and Nacho is on Marble's team. I'm not sure how much experience Marble has with Mollie, but from what I know Mollie and Nacho talk about mafia and mafia players, so her having absolutely no idea of marble is surprising.

Actually no, if they haven't played together, which is possible because marble hasn't played in a while, I know that Mollie at least followed the first crosstown game so she wouldn't be so completely unaware of marble. Don't know about your other team members though.

But, wait seriously Mollie thought him proclaiming he was town and he had a good town game was why she scum read him??? Does not compute.

mollie read marble as town early and switched it up later on. Do you want me to ask what her reasoning was? She never went into it in the thread.

[Ankamius]

The PT, not the thread.

[Ankamius]

mollie read marble as town early and switched it up later on. Do you want me to ask what her reasoning was? She never went into it in the thread.

But you just said that him proclaiming he was town and really good at this game was a significant reason why every single one of your teammates was scum reading him.

I was talking about Bulba and Eddie very early on in the game when we initially synced in our games. This was before mollie replaced into the game.

mollie doesn't think she can read CES even on a good day, thinks that CD is a player that is much better than he looks and just needs to be engaged, and thinks BBT is town right now (doesn't think the aggression is scum) although keeping an eye on him to see if his play deteriorates is advised.

Like right here is a rare mention Ank makes of Cheery where he relays a comment from Mollie about how Cheery needs to be engaged to play well.

So why is he not really making an effort to engage Cheery? Wouldn't that be a good way to read him?

I don't really need to sort Cheery when the entire situation around his wagon looks more like a scum directed mislynch than anything else.

[Ankamius]

CES + Regfan is the most likely combo. It makes sense with the day 1 tri-read thing they had going on and CES' posting about Aeronaut flipping town but still going along that list anyway. There's other possible combos but it doesn't feel consistent with the game.

PEdit: @Zachrulez

[Ankamius]

ank, gun to the head who is the scum team?

also who do you think will die tonight and why?

pedti: we can do that tommmorw

Scum team is CES+Anen+Regfan, I think. Just Anen's ending reads by itself is horrendous.

Tammy's almost certainly the kill tonight. I'd be surprised if it was anyone else.

[Ankamius]

Where was CES posting that Aero would flip town?

This is after he flipped town.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Cheery Dog

Aeronaut flipping town was an unpleasant surprise but it also makes Cheery Dog and Ankamius more likely to be scum and I don't see much reason to deviate from the course.

Oversoul, I would've liked Day 1 to have ended earlier, so maybe try voting scum instead?

Elk, I think BBT's push on ika is pretty weird, but it doesn't make sense to twist that into an argument against ika (through the "it's not TvT" theory).

This

[Ankamius]

now why would tammy be the NK ank?

Because she's widely townread and it doesn't dispel any of the tension on the game if she dies.

[Ankamius]

I legitimately have no idea how I'm not being understood here

[Ankamius]

Don't buy for a second that Anks also in the "CES+Reg are scum" boat especially given he was saying he "didn't have a read on me either way" earlier on and then suddenly switched to scum-reading me after I stated a scum-read on him.

I didn't like the reasoning for the readswitch on me before, but mollie disagreed with me when I brought it up, so ( ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

[Ankamius]

Ank - Early you asked me to read the way that CES was interacting with you versus the way he was interacting with cheery, which implied that you were reading a cheery/CES partnership or so I thought. Are you reading a Cheery/CES/REgfan team then?

At the time, I was. I ended up getting disengaged sometime this phase and I tend to forget a lot when I do.

now why would tammy be the NK ank?

Because she's widely townread and it doesn't dispel any of the tension on the game if she dies.

What do you mean by this?

I can't remember anyone having a read on you that wasn't town since you replaced in.

You're not making any big stirs on any of the big 'controversial' people right now and you're not a subject to the same controversy. You're more shaping what's already there, so it's not like you suddenly not being here is going to crash the game in an entirely new direction. You're not leading any of the major pushes going on.

[Ankamius]

I'm talking to mollie right now. If anyone wants something from her, now's your chance before I go to bed.

[Ankamius]

I didn't like the reasoning for the readswitch on me before, but mollie disagreed with me when I brought it up, so ( ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

This is reasoning that I brought up near the start of D2 this isn't new information or a new stance of mine and you've never stated a scum-read on me previously so this doesn't add up from you. It looks very much like a case of setting up to de-credit/push against me given I scum-read you.

IIRC you were townreading me for a while or at the very least weren't scumreading me, so...?

[Ankamius]

All she said so far is that she thinks ika is scum now. I asked for justification to post in here but haven't gotten a response yet.

Wisdom doesn't like Zachrulez in this exchange.

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

Hold up.

[Ankamius]

I'm asking him right now.

[Ankamius]

Zach what games have you played with Wisdom? He only remembers playing with you in a marathon.

[Ankamius]

She's actually townreading you now, last I heard.

PEdit: @Ika

All she said so far is that she thinks ika is scum now. I asked for justification to post in here but haven't gotten a response yet.

Wisdom doesn't like Zachrulez in this exchange.

-.-

i want to hear this porgression

pedit: margarita

mollie did post a reason for you being scum earlier, but I was requested not to make it public; it's probably a metatell you don't know about.

[Ankamius]

Do you still think it should be impossible for him to believe you are scum?

[Ankamius]

Probably a meta tell. You don't even know WHAT it is... do you?

I actually went to take a look at what she was referring to just now and I instantly caught on to what she was referring to as the actual 'tell'. As to whether it's actually a scumtell for ika, I don't know personally, but I'm not going to post it without mollie's permission.

[Ankamius]

I think mollie logged off.

[Ankamius]

I bet.

[Ankamius]

Okay well, I need to consolidate myself on my reads and I work in literally 6 hours, so I'll be logging off shortly. If there's anything else that needs to be answered or w/e before deadline, now's the time to ask.

I'll be around before the actual deadline if someone's not hammered by then.

[Ankamius]

ok

ika: mollie hasn't posted in the PT in the past hour. If she's online, then she's not paying attention to the game right now.

[Ankamius]

I posted anyway. I'll wait probably around 10-15 minutes for a response before going to bed.

[Ankamius]

It looks like mollie's catching up now. She just told me to tell Zach that she's scumreading ika, not me.

[Ankamius]

Also, since wisdom is talking to you right now that shouldn't prevent you from talking about his reads.

Wisdom and I are actually pretty synced, like I said before.

He agreed that you and anti were town.
He thought ika was likely town but not as sure; your posting to mollie looked fake.
He agreed that CES was scummy.
He likes BBT for town.
He agrees Anen is scum, mainly because of his elaborate catchup resulting in vague reads.

The Zach read came later during this whole thing.

I mainly asked him for reads on Anti/Ika/you though.

[Ankamius]

Now mollie's saying that ika might be town.

[Ankamius]

Still haven't elaborated on that scum read Wisdom apparently has of me.

Uhhhhh I could have sworn I did, but apparently not.

It's a feeling from how you engaged me.

[Ankamius]

Okay, I'm going to go sleep now.

See you on day 3 when I have a few days to actually sleep.

[Ankamius]

Also, since wisdom is talking to you right now that shouldn't prevent you from talking about his reads.

Wisdom and I are actually pretty synced, like I said before.

He agreed that you and anti were town.
He thought ika was likely town but not as sure; your posting to mollie looked fake.
He agreed that CES was scummy.
He likes BBT for town.
He agrees Anen is scum, mainly because of his elaborate catchup resulting in vague reads.

The Zach read came later during this whole thing.

I mainly asked him for reads on Anti/Ika/you though.

what about me looked town to him, and then what looked fake about my posting to mollie. Do you mean me pointing out that mollie was, in fact, not logged out, because that is easily backed up because oh look still green.

I'll get to this on day 3 if it's still relevant.

[Ankamius]

@Mod: V/LA until Monday.

[Ankamius]

Vote: Aneninen

I'd much rather do this, tbh.

[Ankamius]

When I put weird stuff out there that is easy to attack, generally those who are most eager to jump onto it are scum. There's also these:

(7) Ankamius, 238 – I forgot that he's in the game and that's not a good sign. Scumreading Llamar? A Llamar vote from CheeryDog, in 251. And Ankamius follows... 255. (Although I think he scumread him before.) And one from BBT in 284... CheeryDog jumped off in 294...

(14) Ankamius, 481 – scumreading Ika now. Either Ika's indeed scum or some scums are picking him for a later mislynch or a vote-parking. (Maybe some of them wanted to stay away from the Aeronaut-wagon...) And Ankamius voted for Llamar in his next post!!!

(10) Ankamius, 592–595 – shadowing a possible Ika-wagon. Telling that he was reading Aeronaut. Posted very little content about him later. CheeryDog pointed out something similar, I guess, in 647.

The first of which says nothing and leads nowhere that I can see.
The second of which is absurdly lazy, ignores most of my post, and tries to spin me in a scumteam with ika all at the same time.
The third is just bad. He knows I was scumreading Ika before that post, so it shouldn't be surprising at all that I'm willing to see ika hang. He also has seen me play as both town and scum and should have a general idea that being concise and not using a lot of words is how I generally go about things, so his Aeronaut point is hollow. His Cheery Dog point is pure fluff and doesn't actually say anything.

Basically, he's either overreacting to things or just posting fluff to pretend to get a read on me. It doesn't make sense from a town perspective.

Not to mention his reads and comments have had an intensity dissonance throughout his catchup.

Also this:

The scummiest thing about CES is his late-Day1 gameplay and there were other things too. But Wgeurts said that my read is bad on him.
I, myself, unsure about CheeryDog, although a couple of things about his recent play are scummy. (See above!)

Can someone summarize the case against CES and against CheeryDog for me?

Most preferably, Zach, BBT or Antihero – they look very town and they're on either of those wagons.

He read through the whole game and has a scum read on both the wagons in some way and clearly has been reading into interactions to some extent, yet he has to ask people to summarize cases on those slots. This is especially bad with CES since from what I can tell, Anen is scumreading CES and is mainly hesitating because his teammate is shutting it down; so why is he asking for a scumcase on him and not putting reasons why he might be town in mind?

[Ankamius]

Because my mind was a clusterfuck of being in my tunnel and adjusting my reads based on that entire engagement and I couldn't untangle it at the time.

[Ankamius]

Also how did you come to the conclusion that scum would want to stay out of the Cheery vs Aero business while town would be more invested in it? I would expect scum to want to keep the status quo up and prevent complications from showing up to become either another possible wagon or increase the amount of info from the day.

[Ankamius]

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

What major wagons? CES + Cheery Dog? When?

Not to mention the third problem which isn't specific to you is that the kill was once again ON wagon. I'm finding it problematic to argue the majority of the scum team being on the lynch bandwagons when doing so narrows the field on that premise.

Assuming you mean at the end of day, then that's the default premise unless I think that Anen+elk is a scumteam. Even before that, the only real addition to that list is ika, so...?

Also you reasoning why Tammy was going to die and then avoiding engagement of her at the end of the day saying you'd get to it if it was still relevant and then Tammy actually dying is like the cherry on top of the sundae.

The fact that no one seemed to agree with it at all helped in making me less sure that it would actually happen.

Why do you think Tammy died last night?

[Ankamius]

Because my mind was a clusterfuck of being in my tunnel and adjusting my reads based on that entire engagement and I couldn't untangle it at the time.

What engagement? When I look back at those pages, you're talking quite casually, offering to be a conduit for mollie. You're barely talking about me, let alone express the sentiment that I might be town, so why the sudden unvote?

As for the unvote, my understanding of the game itself shifted as I got reads from the engagement. Regfan's side of the engagement was town, and it feels really weird to me when I think about you being scum with a full PoE list alongside two other town (cheery dog being town because scum vs scum wagons look bleh), the amount of resistance to the D1 townbloc overall feels off.

So if I assume that all three of you were town, then the resistance makes more sense. It was a safe bet that someone in the PoE list was going to be lynched, and it would set up future towncred to oppose it anyway, or in CheeryDog-scum case it would be less suspicious to oppose it early than the day their scumpartner would hang.

I didn't go into this yesterday because I was tunneling, basically.

[Ankamius]

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

What major wagons? CES + Cheery Dog? When?

The fact that no one seemed to agree with it at all helped in making me less sure that it would actually happen.

Why do you think Tammy died last night?

I'm presuming the reason she died was because you shot her.

now why would tammy be the NK ank?

Because she's widely townread and it doesn't dispel any of the tension on the game if she dies.

Thank you, smartass. Answer it seriously, please.

[Ankamius]

This part got eaten while making my post somehow.

Saying your mind is a clusterfuck doesn't change your basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons. It doesn't ring genuine to me.

What major wagons? CES + Cheery Dog? When?

The lynching wagons.

You're going to have to specify when.

[Ankamius]

Also how did you come to the conclusion that scum would want to stay out of the Cheery vs Aero business while town would be more invested in it? I would expect scum to want to keep the status quo up and prevent complications from showing up to become either another possible wagon or increase the amount of info from the day.

I'm going to assume Cheery vs. Aero is supposed to be Cheery vs. me because I'm not sure what you're talking about otherwise. Day 1 didn't come that close to deadline.

The end of Day 2 felt pretty polarized in terms of it being either me or Cheery, so the only thing scum could do there was push a mislynch and look bad if their target flipped. That is inherently not attractive for scum and both theelkspeaks and Aneninen seem like players that might shy away from that as scum; on the other hand, as town, Yesterday felt like it could be really important and especially before Tammy and ika voted Cheery Dog, it felt like elk's and Aneninen's votes could have been crucial to getting scum lynched.

I had assumed you were talking about the day one lynches since both of them are now confirmed.

What do you make of Aneninen's catchup reads then?

[Ankamius]

Well, yeah I was leaning towards Cheery Dog being a counterwagon to scum. I was scumreading CES for most of the game up to that point.

I don't understand the relevance of thinking there would be scum on a town lynch wagon?

#753 was posted when there were two wagons of two players each; I'm pretty sure I never said he was a counterwagon to scum until he had a more sizable wagon on him. What's the context to that post that makes it scum?

[Ankamius]

Zach are you suggesting that I telegraphed what I would do that night and why when it was already clear my standing was rapidly decreasing?

[Ankamius]

Yours :/

[Ankamius]

ank why did you lie to us yesterday about mollies posting and when she was on and not?

I didn't lie about a single thing I said about either mollie or Wisdom yesterday. I was basing the activity entirely on posts in our team PT.

[Ankamius]

Spoiler:

Well, yeah I was leaning towards Cheery Dog being a counterwagon to scum. I was scumreading CES for most of the game up to that point.

I don't understand the relevance of thinking there would be scum on a town lynch wagon?

#753 was posted when there were two wagons of two players each; I'm pretty sure I never said he was a counterwagon to scum until he had a more sizable wagon on him. What's the context to that post that makes it scum?

The point is that you previously stated a different read on Cheery.

After speaking with my team about the game state tonight, I believe that all three of the major wagons up to this point (theelkspeaks, Psyche, and Cheery Dog) are on town.

This is worth quoting again. Mainly for the mention that Cheery is town.

Right there.

Also here.

ika: Scum, mainly for these two posts.

ok so does soemone have a town case for elk or can we like lynch that slot with fire now?

cus im talking with GIF and the others and they see no reason for it to be town

ok im proxing GIF here:

@Anka, gif had an epiphany and thinks elk could be town and to sort llam is to just have ffery into game here as well

pedit: get her talking now

The bolded was made in response to me bluntly saying that I wasn't going to vote for elk.

---

I'm really not liking CES for #475. Either he's town and just completely missed why I posted that theory somehow, or he's scum trying to spin it to his own advantage. I don't see town purposely seeing the whole picture and thinking that was the extent of my scumhunting.

Although I will say that the reason I only answered questions yesterday is because I was basically dead on my feet. I HAD reads, but never posted them in the thread.

I still like Psyche for scum; BBT is virtually conftown if he does indeed flip town, although I'm townreading the slot pretty hard anyway.

I keep ISOing Cheery Dog and I townread his overall tone every time I do so. Lynching him based on token usage is just not going to work as a case for me.

And then we go a while without you mentioning cheery at all.

I like Cheery Dog's 'push' on Zack on a surface level this day phase, but overall his day 2 play doesn't look proactive at all. Nullishscum so far.

Where you state a read on him.

Then 753 where you don't have one at all?

uhhhhh

I'm pretty sure that was just a heavily disengaged part of the game for me and I was posting stuff as I thought of them.

[Ankamius]

Zach are you suggesting that I telegraphed what I would do that night and why when it was already clear my standing was rapidly decreasing?

I'm suggesting that yes.

It's pretty important to point out that I think that's the case because I already think you're scum, and that the theory itself doesn't LEAD to me thinking you're scum by itself.

Let's talk about your CES unvote though. What was your read on him when you unvoted, and what's your read on him now?

I was starting to townread him at that point and that hasn't really changed since.

[Ankamius]

Spoiler:

Well, yeah I was leaning towards Cheery Dog being a counterwagon to scum. I was scumreading CES for most of the game up to that point.

I don't understand the relevance of thinking there would be scum on a town lynch wagon?

#753 was posted when there were two wagons of two players each; I'm pretty sure I never said he was a counterwagon to scum until he had a more sizable wagon on him. What's the context to that post that makes it scum?

The point is that you previously stated a different read on Cheery.

After speaking with my team about the game state tonight, I believe that all three of the major wagons up to this point (theelkspeaks, Psyche, and Cheery Dog) are on town.

This is worth quoting again. Mainly for the mention that Cheery is town.

Right there.

Also here.

ika: Scum, mainly for these two posts.

ok so does soemone have a town case for elk or can we like lynch that slot with fire now?

cus im talking with GIF and the others and they see no reason for it to be town

ok im proxing GIF here:

@Anka, gif had an epiphany and thinks elk could be town and to sort llam is to just have ffery into game here as well

pedit: get her talking now

The bolded was made in response to me bluntly saying that I wasn't going to vote for elk.

---

I'm really not liking CES for #475. Either he's town and just completely missed why I posted that theory somehow, or he's scum trying to spin it to his own advantage. I don't see town purposely seeing the whole picture and thinking that was the extent of my scumhunting.

Although I will say that the reason I only answered questions yesterday is because I was basically dead on my feet. I HAD reads, but never posted them in the thread.

I still like Psyche for scum; BBT is virtually conftown if he does indeed flip town, although I'm townreading the slot pretty hard anyway.

I keep ISOing Cheery Dog and I townread his overall tone every time I do so. Lynching him based on token usage is just not going to work as a case for me.

And then we go a while without you mentioning cheery at all.

I like Cheery Dog's 'push' on Zack on a surface level this day phase, but overall his day 2 play doesn't look proactive at all. Nullishscum so far.

Where you state a read on him.

Then 753 where you don't have one at all?

uhhhhh

I'm pretty sure that was just a heavily disengaged part of the game for me and I was posting stuff as I thought of them.

I was looking back for any sign of read progression on cheery dog, and your progression doesn't look particularly natural to me.

shrug

Zach are you suggesting that I telegraphed what I would do that night and why when it was already clear my standing was rapidly decreasing?

I'm suggesting that yes.

It's pretty important to point out that I think that's the case because I already think you're scum, and that the theory itself doesn't LEAD to me thinking you're scum by itself.

Let's talk about your CES unvote though. What was your read on him when you unvoted, and what's your read on him now?

Still stands. I don't like that I have to ask about this now and that it has to be explained AFTER day 2 instead of before it ended.

ok

Regfan's side of the engagement was town, and it feels really weird to me when I think about you being scum with a full PoE list alongside two other town (cheery dog being town because scum vs scum wagons look bleh), the amount of resistance to the D1 townbloc overall feels off.

I don't get how you got Cheery Dog being town out of any of that. It seems to like most of your reasoning for thinking the Cheery Dogwagon was bad was based on your suspicion of me and Regfan. If you change your mind on me, how do you not go to thinking Cheery Dog is scum? He was even pushing 'marble too D1, so fits in with your point about the resistance to the D1 townbloc.

I had assumed you were talking about the day one lynches since both of them are now confirmed.

What do you make of Aneninen's catchup reads then?

The second biggest wagon at the end of Day 1 was on ika, not Cheery.

I didn't like Aneninen's catch-up reads as I read them - he often seemed to be noting weirdness more than anything else and his approach on me (and Cheery too, knowing now that he is town) felt more like he was trying to set up a future vote than a legitimate interest in my alignment. I'm interested to see how he'll play (and whom he'll vote!) now he's no longer catching up.

When I talk about resistance, I'm talking about people that aren't in the PoE list. I thought Cheery was town because the main way he would be scum is if the CES wagon was scum-heavy. It makes less sense when the wagon is me, a high town read, a lower town read, and that slot itself. Ika was on the wagon early on, but he abandoned it long before day ended. Cheery Dog also took a while to join the wagon. Just looking at vote velocity, it makes less sense as scum than town.

[Ankamius]

BBT you think anen is town?

[Ankamius]

hi Anen

Your first point is semantics. If you look at that entire post real closely, you'll see that my entire case up to that first post was that one point I brought up, which I went into more detail in with the second one. The only thing I withheld was the severity of the scumread I got from it, which isn't dissonant at all. I wanted to see Antihero's side because a) he probably read more of your wall than I did, and b) so that there's more info out there that everyone else can pick up on.

I assumed townbloc-busting because I've pretty blatantly been trying to bring me+Tammy+Antihero+ika(much later on) together as a unified group for a decent chunk of day 2. I'd mildly expect scum to at least throw a little bit of doubt onto it regardless of how strong it would actually be if it's all town, so having someone come in and start throwing suspicion on half of that group makes sense to me. Plus regarding the easy target thing, ika was the counterwagon day 1 and I was put in the PoE list of the day 1 townbloc, so it wouldn't have been very difficult to push either slot since the suspicion is already in the thread.

I already answered the CES-unvoting thing. Respond to that if you're going to continue this point.

RE: My case

1) You being vague is not the actual reason, it's the vague reads after what looks like a more thorough look into the game. I have a hard time seeing someone have only vague reads in a game that got so controversial so fast. It's bogus.
2) Just throwing shit onto the fire without actually rebutting it. I know Wisdom never gave a concrete reason, but ffs.
3) It might help to note that I never brought that up after the initial mention.

For the other list directly after it:
1) How does this matter?
2) Show your work and tell me how it's alignment relevant

RE: 1376

Yeah, here's the deal. Scum have to manufacture cases in order to get mislynches. When someone says something that's easy to attack, scum generally are more than happy to push it because it's easy. So when I say something that's easy to attack, scum are generally happier to push it than town. Good work on trying to spin it towards me attacking you for saying I'm not scumhunting, though.

1077 point: You're right, it doesn't reference it; it only half references it. The other reference is just spinning me into as scum pushing him as town. You still only focused on that part and completely ignored the rest of my post where I detail my other reads. Also, you mistaking my unvote for a vote was what I meant by being lazy.
1106 point: No, Cheery Dog didn't say anything similar thing at all. You said I was scumreading ika because there was a wagon. Cheery Dog was asking me why I was suddenly able to read ika at all. There's a very big difference between motivation behind a scumread and trying to figure out why I have a read.

Your responses to 139 and 390 are basically what I meant by overblowing my early posts. It's weird how you criticize this after you fail to address the 1077 point.

[Ankamius]

Anen's basically just trying to spin my case against me. Lynch it with fire.

[Ankamius]

Antihero – Unsorted? Lean Town???

I'm not sold on his obv-town-ness at all.

His posting style

looks

like the same as I know, but he did just the same as Ankamius: posted his scumread on me because of my catch-up (...which was about halfway at that moment or so!!!) without giving any other reasons or

trying to interact me at all!!!

I've been involved in a town-vs-town fight with Antihero before, but in

that

case, he asked questions, made arguments, etc. ...in his "Antihero-way". But here, nothing similar has happened. He might be another player who looks for an easy lynch.

wahahahahahahahaha

[Ankamius]

Hi.

I'll be around later today. Mollie posted her thoughts of the game in the PT as well, but it would take a lot more time than I have to post it in here, so give me a little time.

[Ankamius]

BTW Zach, Wisdom had a knee jerk reaction to your push on me, he doesn't think you're scum.

[Ankamius]

FTR I think your push on me was scum, so there's that.

[Ankamius]

This game's next after I get done with feeding the zoo at my house.

[Ankamius]

(I still want her [mollie's] reads and explanations in this thread asap especially the "ika is confscum due to meta tell" v "ika might be town!" change since that's the one I struggle to buyt he most)

Here's mollie's reads right now:

Antihero - Town
theelkspeaks - Lynchbait (Town)
BlueBloodedToffee - Still sorting (although in a later post put him down as a solid town read for 1484; she doesn't see why scum would ever post that)
Zachrulez - Dunno

CES - She can't read him at all; he always looks really town and really scum at the same time and wonders why he's still alive on day 3. She can't really say much more on this slot and wishes she had a more fleshed out read on him
Regfan - She's curious why you want to know her reads since she doesn't believe you think she's a competent player to her knowledge. She thinks that you're slipping into a scum-teacher mode where you try to correct town's incorrect judgment because you can't help it. It's also interesting that you're posting about Tammy's NK being because she's 'obvtown and likely has good reads', yet are not attempting to follow up on that thought process at all. If you have, please point it out. Who nightkilled Tammy and why? She thinks BBT might have done it since he seems hooked on thinking he's right this game, but meh, scum can fake it too. Her theory is that scum killed Tammy to use it as leverage in the game, and she thinks you're doing it in an underhanded way; you're still alive on day 3 in a game with only townflips and you're not lusting for a scumflip. You're being too passive for her liking, but she'll do research later on and think about it if there's time.
ika - The slot she wanted to sort out first. He was town when she first started reading the game, but there was something she noticed that's more likely from scum!ika that she's willing to reveal because she'd like to fix her meta if it really is a bad tell even though she doesn't like outing stuff like this. The tell itself is ika going around asking people who they think the next nightkill in the game is since that's what is on his mind. It's less about asking people who will be nightkilled next itself and more about the thought process being in that direction entirely. Although it's a general tell that worked before cops and doctors started doing it as well, it rang alarm bells here because it looked like ika was taking a measured step by going down that path. However, there's been enough town flares in his posts and the reachouts look genuine enough that she's leaning towards town on him now.

[Ankamius]

uhhhhh, that could probably have been about 50x more readable. Sorry.

(I still want her [mollie's] reads and explanations in this thread asap especially the "ika is confscum due to meta tell" v "ika might be town!" change since that's the one I struggle to buyt he most)

Here's mollie's reads right now:

Antihero - Town
theelkspeaks - Lynchbait (Town)
BlueBloodedToffee - Still sorting (although in a later post put him down as a solid town read for 1484; she doesn't see why scum would ever post that)
Zachrulez - Dunno

CES - She can't read him at all; he always looks really town and really scum at the same time and wonders why he's still alive on day 3. She can't really say much more on this slot and wishes she had a more fleshed out read on him

Regfan - She's curious why you want to know her reads since she doesn't believe you think she's a competent player to her knowledge. She thinks that you're slipping into a scum-teacher mode where you try to correct town's incorrect judgment because you can't help it. It's also interesting that you're posting about Tammy's NK being because she's 'obvtown and likely has good reads', yet are not attempting to follow up on that thought process at all. If you have, please point it out. Who nightkilled Tammy and why? She thinks BBT might have done it since he seems hooked on thinking he's right this game, but meh, scum can fake it too. Her theory is that scum killed Tammy to use it as leverage in the game, and she thinks you're doing it in an underhanded way; you're still alive on day 3 in a game with only townflips and you're not lusting for a scumflip. You're being too passive for her liking, but she'll do research later on and think about it if there's time.

ika - The slot she wanted to sort out first. He was town when she first started reading the game, but there was something she noticed that's more likely from scum!ika that she's willing to reveal because she'd like to fix her meta if it really is a bad tell even though she doesn't like outing stuff like this. The tell itself is ika going around asking people who they think the next nightkill in the game is since that's what is on his mind. It's less about asking people who will be nightkilled next itself and more about the thought process being in that direction entirely. Although it's a general tell that worked before cops and doctors started doing it as well, it rang alarm bells here because it looked like ika was taking a measured step by going down that path. However, there's been enough town flares in his posts and the reachouts look genuine enough that she's leaning towards town on him now.

Oh also, Aneninen was left out of the original reads list, but she thought he was slightly town-leaning until Antihero came out with a scumread on him since her only particular reason for townreading Aneninen is weak meta.

[Ankamius]

Mollie also wants to point out that her reads are tentative and she's still sorting things out since it's a lot more difficult to get reads in games she's not in.

[Ankamius]

Talking to Wgeurts a bit.

He says this:

@BBT: CES is town for fudge sake get your crumpets together and get on a real scum like Ank/Zach/Ika!!!

i dunno whats more humorous in this

the fact wgert thinks zach is scum or i am scum

The more humorous point is that he thinks Zach and I are scummates.

[Ankamius]

Ank, I still want your reads specifically.

SCUM
Aneninen
---
---
---
theelkspeaks
---
---
Zachrulez
NULL
ika
---
Cogito Ergo Sum
Regfan
---
---
BlueBloodedToffee
Antihero
TOWN

[Ankamius]

Zachrulez moved towards town with the sudden backing off of me at a really awkward time. It makes him being a teammate with Ascuminen less likely since he has a lot more pressure than I do, so suddenly backing off of the primary counterwagon doesn't click.

Honestly, the only way I can see this being a scum response is if he's scum with BBT and they're trying to maneuver around, but I don't really get why this would be necessary since that would require both wagons to be on town because of the above.

[Ankamius]

Ank, so you no longer think the Cheery Dog was scum-driven?

I don't know. I'm starting to get back into trying to figure out individuals over the gamestate.

[Ankamius]

snip

Ank, I have no idea how you have Zach and Ika as nulls.

Zachrulez -> explained already
Ika -> Scumreading GIF and have minor tinglings about the end of day 2, but I trust Mollie's read enough for it to have a bigger effect

[Ankamius]

I can't really elaborate much more on Zach than I have since most of it is the gutread on how he engaged me on day 2. Tammy and Regfan's posts were made to try to figure out what I was saying and decide what my alignment was based on that, while Zachrulez felt more like he was trying to stifle and push me into a corner without trying to figure me out.

[Ankamius]

You're in the resort list Zach.

[Ankamius]

I like how theelkspeaks has stated multiple times that my votes are so horrendously bad to deserve an autovote yet has never actually explained why yet.

[Ankamius]

Ika and BBT are more likely town with Aneninen's scumflip, and CES is more likely town because of Zach's townflip.

Since Antihero's just straight up town, that leaves Regfan + Theelkspeaks.

[Ankamius]

Regfan about your question on elk: That townread evaporated pretty fast. I originally thought that he was being pushed as an easy lynch by scum, but his horrendous attack on me solved that pretty fast.

[Ankamius]

Antihero here's a question then: Why was Zachrulez killed and not you?

[Ankamius]

Ika and BBT are more likely town with Aneninen's scumflip, and CES is more likely town because of Zach's townflip.

Since Antihero's just straight up town, that leaves Regfan + Theelkspeaks.

Ika's hammer was straight up frustration with the situation he found himself in. Note the difference between his D1 hammer and his hammer on Anen.

Why the fuck would he hammer a town read when he thinks it would take us into LyLo? It makes no sense.

I feel like I'm on crazy pills right now.

My best guess is that he gave up on trying to get lynches he wanted. I can see town doing that.

[Ankamius]

Hey Elk.

What's your reads on every player?

[Ankamius]

I have a pretty bad migraine from work today, so I'm going to skip on posting in games today. I'll get to this tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

@Ank - Explain how the Zach kill makes CES more likely town for me please since I'm not following the reasoning there.

It's because he was killed instead of Antihero. Antihero has been pushing CES for a long while now and Zachrulez was townreading him.

[Ankamius]

ank: whats your take on everything in general

I've been kinda disengaged for a while, so I'll have to get myself caught back up again.

But eh, I'm trying to see if I can find any pairings that make sense. I still think it's Reg+Elk based on PoE, but I'm not all that certain about it.

[Ankamius]

bleh

It's not Elk+Reg. Scratch that.

[Ankamius]

If Elk is scum, it's with BBT. 100%. Lynching him is useless because of this.

BBT what specifically do you want from me?

[Ankamius]

Regfan being so willing to talk about token discussion so much early game makes me like him a lot less now that I know Empire rolled scum despite three tokens used on him.

[Ankamius]

(I'd rather you respond to my prior post though; How have you ruled out all combinations that involve Elk other than Elk-BBT?

Antihero is very unlikely scum at all based on him basically being the first one to 'tunnel' Aneninen into the ground, long before he became a serious lynch threat.
CES is practically tunneling on elk being scum and trying to force the wagon through.
ika is basically elk's tunnel target for the day. The scumplay in this setup when you're being run up is not to try to deathtunnel your partner. That's just self-defeating.
Regfan -> heavily pushing elk.

elk has BBT as his strongest townread and BBT posted nearly two weeks about being willing to lynch elk, but basically stopped mentioning him entirely outside of a few idle mentions beyond that.

[Ankamius]

ika what is GIF's reads?

[Ankamius]

Reg: You can't seriously think that it's an Anen+Ank+Elk scumteam. That would necessitate all three of us deciding out of nowhere to just start bussing the everloving fuck out of each other on day three when we had half of the mislynched we needed to win the game.

How does that make any sense whatsoever?

[Ankamius]

CES is practically tunneling on elk being scum and trying to force the wagon through.

You know I'm voting BBT, right?

Your mindset is in that general direction.

[Ankamius]

I'm not arguing that elk is scum. I'm arguing that if he is, you're the only partner he could have.

[Ankamius]

Why? I see a lot more scum motivation for that than town motivation.

Plus, now that you've stated that Titus has done VCA of this game, I want to have the analysis posted in the game just so we know that you weren't bullshitting.

[Ankamius]

I'm trying to analyze teams now.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: theelkspeaks

[Ankamius]

Do you believe me now Reg?

[Ankamius]

I'd really like an explanation from Regfan as to why he still thought it was me+elk when I basically tipped the dominoes to an elk lynch.

[Ankamius]

Yeah. I looked at Aneninen's ISO and noticed that he was trying to discredit both me and Antihero. He had the same type of tone towards elk, but wasn't actually trying to shut him down. Combining that with elk jumping on me (the counterwagon to Anen) after him made me suddenly a lot more sure that elk was scum.

[Ankamius]

Regfan is #1 scum and you're likely the partner.

[Ankamius]

You completely changed your tone after I voted for elk, then changed it again after CES hammered. It looks really fake.
RegFan's post right before the thread lock was abysmal. I'll let him answer my question before really going into it, but I'll summarize by saying that I can't believe someone on his caliber would ever make that post as town.

[Ankamius]

Also also, why do you suppose Anti was killed?

Because he was kinda obviously town and no one else was.

[Ankamius]

Can you elaborate on the tone change?

PEdit - ika seems obviously town to everyone...why wasn't he killed?

Do you think Anti was likely to vote CES once he saw I could not be scum with elk?

I never got that same impression. Elk was going ham on tunneling that ika is scum, anyways.

I'd bet that Anti's looking at the game and frothing at the mouth that CES isn't the #1 target today.

[Ankamius]

Spoiler:

You imply it by assuming that Titus disagrees with my reads. She would not disagree if I was scum, would she?

Her VCA states that you/CES are scum. There isn't actually a whole lot of VCA in her post though. She thinks that you have found a way around her meta tell and she thinks if she is wrong on one of you then it's probably elk.

We can do Anen/???, sure.

Yes, you do.

Again, you're speaking as if I'm town here. When asking me to talk to Titus, why would you bother if you thought I was scum? Titus' comments wouldn't mean shit.

I put theelkspeaks to L-1 between these two posts.

Elk is town.

Anti. vote CES.

Stop playing badly.

CES hammers theelkspeaks between these two posts.

rebuttal: elk's recent play is inexcusably fucking awful. we're seeing the SAME IKA PUSH FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW FROM THE SAME PEOPLE

two+two equals four.

Because ika is fucking scum and meta is fucking up your ability to see that.

That hammer from CES. My fucking word. So hesitant to vote Yesterday when Anen/ika were the choices, has no problem hammering out of the blue here though. Where is the hesitancy now?

Fuck this game.

Also, Ank should be made to explain that vote tomorrow.

The middle set looks a lot different from each side.

[Ankamius]

No, my point is that you suddenly get really concise with your wording as soon as I vote for elk, then only start getting indignant about the elk wagon as soon as CES hammers. Why did you wait to fight against it until then?

[Ankamius]

I don't think BBT+CES is a thing.

CES+Reg is possible, I guess? I'd have to read into it further since the only thing I can think about when I see this is that I can see them trying to make an alliance with Llamarble, but it feels off that they'd just up and kill him right away when there were other good kills.

[Ankamius]

Actually, BBT, why do you think ika would be killed for being universally townread when you were scumreading him?

[Ankamius]

Ok, who was scumreading Antihero?

[Ankamius]

Mine I guess??

Equinox claimed a post three posts before a pagetop in a high activity game?

This is a sign of the apocalypse.

[Ankamius]

You think I matter?

One person is scum-reading someone who is town read by the majority and you think that's a reason for scum to keep him alive?

In what world does that make sense?

Ok, who was scumreading Antihero?

I still want to know the answer to this.

[Ankamius]

Why do you think ika would have been nightkilled for being widely townread when Anti was universally townread?

[Ankamius]

Who is scum ika?

already said, why are you not reading

ank: is mollie around to give some input? do you also find it odd that BBT has never posted titus VCA yet?

She's around. I never forgot your request to get mollie's reads, but she wasn't all that sure until after day opened.

She thinks you're most likely town, regfan is super scummy, and is mostly trying to figure out which of BBT and CES is the partner.

[Ankamius]

BBT: Not really a whole lot. A lot of the posts between those two sections were kind of pointless, most notably the game selection token usage conversation.

Overall I can see CES either trying to figure out the game on the spot as town or fluffing it as scum, although the latter doesn't make very much sense unless he's on a team with ika.

[Ankamius]

Wisdom has been fully caught up for a lot of the game since he replaced in, yes. I just haven't been posting what he has been saying.

[Ankamius]

So you thought at the time that when pretty much everyone thought that theelkspeaks was fully willing to lynch elk except for BBT and me, I, as elk's scumpartner, would turn on him completely out of the blue when the chances of him

not

being lynched from it was virtually nonexistent?

I'd like to know your opinion of #1961.

[Ankamius]

#1937 was a reaction test, too. I didn't realize at the time how ambiguous I was, but I would have expected town to either come to the conclusion that I was talking about elk+BBT being the only possible team for elk and comment on it (or hell, come to

any

conclusion and comment on it)

or

try to figure out what I was talking about.

You spun me as scum with that post without doing either.

I originally got obvtown tells from some interactions with Anen+you, but looking back I can easily see some maneuvering to poison interactions by sacrificing Anen when it was too late to save him in order to set up the other two for the endgame.

[Ankamius]

I'm looking at early Day 4 stuff and now I'm thinking that CES is a more likely partner to Regfan. I can see scum wanting to get rid of a major townread (ika) that won't end up getting them caught up in a dangerous 1v1, but it's still such an awkward position to take when there's lynchbait everywhere that I'm wary of scum actually going that path right off the bat.

Sounds like a revisit to the early CES wagons is warranted.

[Ankamius]

Ok yeah, I can see Regfan's play on day two being all about trying to save CES from the noose. He started pushing Psyche really hard once the CES wagon sprung up, then pushed Anen towards null the moment Cheery Dog started being wagoned up. Him switching back to scum on Anen is a very weak tell since at that point only Antihero and I were scumreading his catchup, but I can see Reg coming up with a lynch list of {Cheery Dog, Aneninen, Ankamius} at that point in time.

At some point in day 3, his plan switched to set up a sacrifice on Aneninen (note he posted that read a very long time before day ended and never actually join up) while also setting up elk and me to be the mislynches of the game. This makes sense with his early day-4 push on elk and push on me today.

The only thing that's giving me pause is that I'd think he would vote for Aneninen earlier once it became clear he couldn't get a mislynch on either elk or me that day without outing himself. Honestly, that entire day is weird for him since that's the only past day phase where he wasn't proactive about voting, having never voted once. I'm not actually sure what to make of that, since I'd actually see town jump on the Aneninen wagon as well.

[Ankamius]

If you guys don't believe me, just put Equinox+Regfan in a double ISO and look at how his stances shift as the wagons change. This is especially alarming on day 2.

[Ankamius]

That's the problem.

Everyone

is scumreading BBT.

[Ankamius]

ika: Mollie wants to tell you that she agrees that it's probably Reg/CES.

[Ankamius]

If it's you-elk, doing something risky wouldn't've been unwarranted. If Antihero hadn't immediately followed it up with a vote, there probably would've been opportunities. But if you were still convinced it had to be BBT as elk's partner, why did you vote him then?

Well, actually...

Ank's absence at a pretty vital point of the game is somewhat concerning.

holy shit, it's elk/bbt isn't it?

VOTE: theelkspeaks

You're right, I couldn't have predicted that Antihero would likely have hammered elk.

I don't understand your question.

[Ankamius]

Or he could've pushed for BBT instead. You'd get on board with that and you could then argue from then on that no one makes sense as a partner to elk. Yeah, it's risky, but if it had been you-elk, I think the situation called for some risk.

The question is why you voted elk when you thought elk only made sense as BBT's buddy. You're making the motive abundantly clear from the perspective of Ank-BBT.

Okay, so what scum motivation would I have for trying to link my scumpartner as the only possible link to the slot that's most likely to be lynched in the first place? Considering that BBT at the time wasn't a significant lynch possibility.

Antihero, theelkspeaks, and Regfan were townreading him.
ika and you were scumreading him.

My plan was effectively to throw shit on my scumpartner, then get rid of two of the three people that were shielding him from being lynched, then open up by pointing the finger to him as scum. Is that what you're arguing?

[Ankamius]

ika: Mollie wants to tell you that she agrees that it's probably Reg/CES.

Mollie interpreted it differently than I intended it to be interpreted, so I'm going to state that she was specifically agreeing with me here.

[Ankamius]

I'm basically waiting for CES and Regfan here; also stuff from my team to sync with.

[Ankamius]

ika: How long are we going to pretend to not notice that CES and Reg are pretending to be awful at this game?

[Ankamius]

Not scum with ika.

[Ankamius]

Now that that's out of the way, I'm going to sync up with my team before coming to a 100% decision because we're split on which of CES and BBT is scum.

[Ankamius]

I'm fine with that. I can't give any timescale of when we'll be synced up anyways.

[Ankamius]

CES: Read on Regfan. Go.