Newbie 2128 - Manila Noir - Postgame
-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
hi pals I haven't read up properly yet but wasn't interested in stalling out. I can see ender has posted a wall CONDEMNING the heck outta my predecessor so I'm guessing interacting w ender isn't going to fill me with a great amount of joy
Ender are u quite satisfied that Smiley is town? Or just quite focused on my pred as scum
Keen to see where you're at too Smiley
I'll report back with my findings when I read up but I am in Australia and it is firmly time for sleeps here-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
actually heck we're on a time budget I'll skip to question 2 -- ender I can see that you are quite satisfied starfire was scum, therefore I'm scum, and that a scum!Smiley world doesn't really work fypov. what is stopping you from voting me in that post?
do you anticipate Smiley will say anything or I'll say anything that will change your mind?
not attacking just like, trying to get to know the workings of your mind-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
you two are in accord so whichever of you is town is going to need to evaluate the other pretty closely here please. I'm not above losing mafia games, and I'm aware replacing into f3 my agency is pretty limited. I can show y'all my perspective, but I'm pretty good at arguing so you should be taking everything I say with a grain of salt anyway. But I'm very competitive and don't *like* losing, so I will sleep much better if both of you could take a step back and check your reads on each other a bit closer.
If anyone is around to jam while I catch up, shout out. If you'd like me to poke some holes in your cases, let me know. Broadly speaking I think this is less helpful than me just finding scum tbh.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
overthinking mafia begins!!!
i'm not crazy about this reaction to mikhail's claim. to sum up what i'm seeing.In post 32, ender wrote: why are you claiming so early?
disinterested responses:- smileydude1 reacts in post 19 and doesn't acknowledge the mason thing.
- starfire doesn't acknowledge the claim, responds saying it was probably a joke in 26. getting this one over with since only i know star's alignment: i think this is well-intended. the mikhail conversation was largely left alone until maduisha's sus in post 25. pushing the conversation risks players with too much information (e.g. masons) giving this information away. i think shutting it down was the right thing to do here.
- maduisha (flipped vt) responds with vague suspicion in 25, then takes it at face value as a joke in 27.
- wayward son immediately engages with the claim in a banterous way. within the scope of obvious rolefishing, this is obvious rolefishing - hindsight is 20/20, but i'm surprised wayward got away with this?
- keria takes the post at face value & won't vote mikhail 42, likes ender's post. this is interested but again uninformed; keria kind of has an opinion and states it along with why he's not applying pressure.
- ender's reaction is in 32; he asserts that either mikhail is town trueclaiming, or scum rolefishing. ender leaves his vote on iavh from rvs, which indicates he isn't interested in pressuring anyone around their reactions to the claim. he doesn't show acknowledgement of the conversation about it being an rvs joke. this culminates in this quote which is, like, a very dramatic way of achieving the point that e.g. starfire/maduisha had already reached
it feels kind of stilted & over-dramatic. small red flags here: i'm wary that he explicitly doesn't scumread mikhail, but also doesn't evaluate whether other players have attempted rolefishing. in particular, i'm wary that he puts this much effort into breaking down the claim but (1) doesn't acknowledge that half the people reacting think it's a joke, or (2) that wayward literally took the bait on the claim.In post 32, ender wrote: and i'd encourage everyone to ignore this claim entirely for D1 and see how things go N1, and if anyone is a town power role that conflicts with him being mason please do not counter claim D1, because that will just ensure you're the kill N1 and we lose the benefit of your action.
- iamveryhappy reacts viscerally in 33, but this makes sense because iavh has too much information about masons. he IS a mason & knows mikhail is lying. iavh literally says in 36 "I'm really surprised that only me and ender saw how bad MihkailTal's post 14 was". for iavh it makes sense reacting vocally, if ender were a vt i'm not really sure why he took such a significant stance without making an effort to solve anyone out of it.
to mikhail's credit, those folks sure know how to start a party.
this is pretty small & semantic, and can be within the realms of town negligence. just from a "something i'd break out of rvs for" perspective this is the first thing that jumps out at me, i'm a tiny bit more wary of ender. smiley has done literally nothing so far so like, that's just deadass null. i guess i like that he didn't acknowledge the claim. that's more of a mech preference than a reliable alignment indicator though.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
bolding sections of this post because i'm realising this f3 is going to be a juicy one, so we gettin train-of-thought-duck
i think starfire's posting has clear town motivation.
Spoiler:
---
gonna ask you both to stretch your minds back to the past if you don't mind--
@SmileyDude1, i have some questions about your initial reads
Spoiler:
---
ender, quick question about your voting
Spoiler:-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
i like this post from ender. it doesn't advance the game necessarily but it's closer to what i'm seeing in iavh & closer to what i think my slot was seeing.In post 92, ender wrote: so imo town!everyone should set aside his horrible decision to claim for D1 and we can revisit tomorrow if needed. by going so hard against Tal, all i see is scum motivation from you. that's the reason for my vote.
just noting i like this retalion against star's scumread on iavh; i think star was right to push the game somewhere other than mikhail (because it's like, mechanical and boring) but the counter-argument is radIn post 101, Political Clout wrote: This feels like an EXTREMELY weird scum read to me. If anything because happy is changing his mind here it indicates town behavior that he is trying to sus out, push, and figure out what mikhail's alignment is. It looks like he is going back rereading and changing his reads. The only players who like things to remain static are scum sided in my opinion. And in my opinion is deserving of a vote.
this isn't particularly compelling, but please consider if wayward son & starfire are the scumteam, starfire has chosen to hard push someone who her partner has voted before flaking (until #215); this is pretty ugly if iavh does successfully turn the tide against those pushing him.In post 103, humaneatingmonkey wrote: [vote count 1.1]
iamveryhappy(2): Wayward Son, Starfire
MikhailTal(2): iamveryhappy, Maduisha
Wayward Son(1): Keria
Maduisha(1): SmileyDude1
Starfire(1): Political Clout
Not Voting(2): MikhailTal, ender
i don't have much else to add here; scum is either voting maduisha from rvs (if it's smileydude1), or has pushed but then unvoted iavh for stated reasons (if ender).
ok to an extent i believe this; insofar as ender is either town who meant well, or scum who genuinely perceives this as a towny play. this is erring back towards mechanics and away from reads so my read on ender is kinda like, approaching nullIn post 116, ender wrote: I just don't know why it's difficult to understand. We shouldn't eliminate tal day one solely based on his claim. We should force mafia to nk him if they want him gone instead of doing their work for them. Then day two if he is mafia and was lying, then that means we have power roles that can counter him. But they just shouldn't do that today because they'd get nk'd and lose their action.
i need wayward's slot filled to get interactions
i'm so sorry if this sounds rude ender but dang this is a long, sticky way of not saying anythingIn post 119, ender wrote: because iavh is currently acting in a way that has scum motivation, in my eyes, regardless of tal's alignment. i see more anti-town motivation behind iavh's actions than pro-town motivation so far. that's why i voted him and intend to re-vote him (when the vote count is confirmed and corrected) unless new information comes forth or he starts acting in a way that i see to be protown instead.
but don't construe that to mean that "no matter what happy does he is condemned". no one is condemned yet. i am always open to new information coming out. i am always open to having a discussion and seeing if my opinion can be swayed back. tunneling people is never helpful. keep in mind the day just started, there is still over a week left for us to figure as much out as we can, and i don't intend to only look at iavh during that time. but he is currently my biggest suspect at the moment.
actually really enjoying the back & forth between ender and PC. again like there's nothing clearing and magical in here but ender holds his own against the questioning well.
... this might be a postgame thing but i'm trying to work out if iavh is attempting to be condescending in a newbie game because his scum suspect didn't pick up him softing mason on like page 2 of the gameIn post 125, iamveryhappy wrote: I'd advise you to read again- from that you should get the gist of it, if not, I'm giving you two words. Skill issue
getting back to this in a sec.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
having difficulty finding traction is valid (i really haven't got my teeth sunk into this game yet)In post 1297, SmileyDude1 wrote: (as you'll later find out I had trouble gaining traction day 1).
As for Happy, while I felt that their push was warranted based on what Mikhail did, I had also had context of Mikhail's playstyle from reading Newbie 2127 in which that slot got pushed out day 1. Given that part of Starfire's early reasoning for scumreading the Happy slot was that scum were going for an easy push, I'd felt weary of giving a townread towards the slot
i see what you mean about iavh. i guess what i'm curious about is, like, specifically the way you mentioned that he felt genuine. i feel like there's a pretty big difference between your actions being warranted/appropriate, and your actions seeming genuine, if that makes sense? like, town and scum can equally take a path which is fair & warranted. but it's pretty close to impossible for scum to be genuine when they're pushing someone else pretending that they're scum.
given you referred to iavh as feeling genuine there, i guess i'm wondering to what extent you think he was being truthful & why that didn't play into your read on his alignment?-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
said it before, i'll say it again: iavh has too much information, and is reacting like someone who has too much information. stafire's perspective is uninformed.In post 135, Starfire wrote:
It's bad as town and worse for scum, therefore we assume Tal is scum, therefore we lim them? This just isn't good reasoning, and it isn't reasonable for a town player to think this way.In post 127, iamveryhappy wrote:
welpIn post 124, Starfire wrote: Self-pity won't get you out of this. Can we start again from the top?Everyone that has messaged since has acknowledged the mason claim is bad as town, and I think you understand how it would be bad from scum - why do you think Mikhail is scum based on the claim and minigame?
Calling it PR fishing isn't an answer, it's an explanation working backward from the answer.
it's bad as town
it's worse for scum
please look at the text I bolded too
smileydude1 i'm surprised you were still focused on mikhail, at the exclusion of everything else that was happening. starfire vs iavh is, if nothing else, really spicy. did you not feel any urgency to have more developed reads at this point?In post 148, SmileyDude1 wrote: My take on Mikhail rn is that the play they made is anti-town, but feels wild to make as scum. I'm disregarding it for now until I get further clarification.
Speaking of which, @MikhailTal what were you trying to accomplish with post 14?
broadly speaking i like these reads (maduisha is an unexpected/unneeded townread; keria isn't a popular townread). i'm just still working through how you were still null on all of the slots which were like, actively playing the game, that just feels like such a safe space to put yourself in while everything is still quite chaotic.In post 158, SmileyDude1 wrote: My current townreads:
Keria- I find myself agreeing with their takes often and I feel like they've consistently acted with intent to solve people
Political Clout- Intent to solve with their questions gives me a towny vibe
-GAP-
Maduisha- Mostly based on vibes
Everyone else is null for me atm. Nothing is pinging me as transparently scummy rn, so i'm hoping that by looking for town we can narrow it down via PoE
With that said UNVOTE: Maduisha
---
starfire challenging keria for his vote on her is, again, very good. my own slot is the one who started making an effort to sort iavh, and is now making an effort to actually sort keria. i'm really curious to read the scumcases against her which i know are coming.
very interested to see where ender is going with this; i'm actually a little surprised that ender reinstated his vote on iavh while again stating that he didn't want the lim, and would unvote at e-1? this is a great way to vote someone without actually adding any pressure to themIn post 170, ender wrote: interesting back-to-back statements considering that i have no interest in a Tal elim today, and from what i gather from her posts, neither does starfire. i do agree that pushing hard for a Tal elim is scum motivated, hence my recent and pending vote on iahv.
i swear,In post 174, Keria wrote: my gut tells me it's just ender and Wayward. everyone else feels pretty townie but i want to take a deeper look
just noting, again not super interesting, that for starfire to be scum she would be risking both herself + her partner getting flak if iavh turned the wagon on his pushers. also noting ender has joined the same wagon that wayward is parked on; i think ender has explained himself onto the wagon in a way that distances from wayward a bit more. still interesting to note.In post 175, humaneatingmonkey wrote: [vc 1.2]
iamveryhappy(3): Wayward Son, Starfire, ender
MikhailTal(2): iamveryhappy, Maduisha
Starfire(1): Political Clout
Not Voting(3): MikhailTal, SmileyDude1, Keria
this is the correct thing to claim but feels a bit pre-emptive
@ender, just curious about your reasoning here -- to what extent did you believe the cop claim? you mentioned that you saw a crumb for it, which is usually a pretty good indicator of authenticity. i get mikhail doubling down on the mason claim, and claiming with a partner which either is or isn't confirmable. if you believed the cop claim, i'm curious why you threatened intent to vote mikhail here rather than just like, voting. this is a pretty good opportunity to increase the pressure on mikhail.In post 181, ender wrote: so i guess this is where we stand. one of @MikhailTal or @iamveryhappy is scum.
scrolling down i do get why you voted mikhail.
if this line of questioning feels tedious & produces mental knots just let me know; i'm p sure i will find things later to pick your brain about.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
realising that you seem like a more empathetic intuition driven person/player and if you're town, deciding between ender & starfire both of whom froze during iavh/mikhail would be very frustrating. this shouldn't be taken as a compliment just an observation. this is a good read, and broadly what mikhail is saying is true. if folks had decided "alright, it was gambiting, let's focus elsewhere", there was a universe where e.g. wayward son fell under suspicion d1.In post 235, SmileyDude1 wrote:Spent the majority of the morning trying to parse what occurred since I left, and I think i've come to the following conclusions.
I feel like Mikhail's logic tracks with their actions from earlier. Im still of the opinion that the play did more to hurt town more than help it, but what they did does seem to track with the first quote mentioning non-conventional playstyles. I also agree with the 2nd quote in that the play lacks longevity in a such a manner that I don't see scum doing day1. I'm leaning towards Mikhail being a town playing in an unorthodox matter at the moment. Don't think i'm willing to vote there rn.
y'all star wasIn post 252, Starfire wrote: Rereading, I don't think the Tal slot is scum. The progression reads much more like 'town with bad ideas' than a scum gambit.
I *really* don't like Keria's 228. Other than ''it's hard to read MikhailTal's posting'' (which is a problem that has a resolution for better or worse), why is a policy lim better than continuing to scumhunt?
VOTE: Keriaverytowny
why did you not feel compelled to move your vote after the fallout of mikhail admitting to the reaction test? do you recall having any feelings about star voting keria? i'd be keen for as much perspective as possible here because following iavh (claimed tpr) onto his death-tunnel of a slot which just replaced out is, like, a very safe position for scum to hide in. the other votes on the wagon were maduisha (who was comfortable still flipping mikhail to clear wifom; largely unvoted to avoid a lolhammer) + keria who hadn't posted since the convo heated up.In post 256, ender wrote: well that's far from ideal.
i'll be keeping my vote where it is for now, but i look forward to hearing from each of the replacements when they join.
and in the meantime i plan to read back over things myself and see if anything new jumps out at me.
you remaining on the wagon & having very little to add to the conversation after mikhail's extensive posting stands out here.
these reads accompanied with no vote is super interesting.In post 264, JasonWazza wrote: <snip>
I feel like Starfire is scum for not even considering that Happy is Town PR IN THE CASE THAT Mikhail flips town. (Scum are more likely to not notice that this is a fake, Town can understand that it can be fake, and therefore Happy could be town PR.)
Ender feels like scum with Starfire given posts like 86
<snip>
Smiley feels town from their reads on other players
this conversation is like... wild.In post 272, JasonWazza wrote:
Yeah he was just so obviously softing the entire time, which as scum I can see you missing (because you think a PR has already claimed).In post 266, Starfire wrote:
I didn't think Happy was PR because he didn't claim...until he did. Not sure I understand your line of reasoning otherwise.In post 264, JasonWazza wrote: I feel like Starfire is scum for not even considering that Happy is Town PR IN THE CASE THAT Mikhail flips town. (Scum are more likely to not notice that this is a fake, Town can understand that it can be fake, and therefore Happy could be town PR.)
jason is now flipped scum.
jason clearly caught that iavh was crumbing a town power role the entire time.
jason is experienced enough to know that scum are constantly hunting for power roles.
star being scum for not reading iavh as a power role despite scum being motivated to hunt for power roles is a really confusing perspective. noting that ender did exactly the same, yet jason has ender as (paraphrasing) 'only scum with star'.
"null, need more content" on PC at this point is a reeeeally spicy take. i have no questions abt the starfire vote. i understand her motivation, i think i can defend this slot & i would have voted differently. but pressuring starfire at this point makes enough sense.In post 276, SmileyDude1 wrote: Update on my reads.
++
IAVH- for reasons already mentioned
+
Alianna- On the basis that I lean town on your predecessor.
-
Political Clout & Maduisha- These are slots i'd like to see more input from.
--
Starfire- In light of IAVH's claim, I want to look more into this slot due to the argument from earlier. Also upon reread, i'm not a fan of 164
VOTE: Starfire, let's see where this leads.
convo between PC & jason on this page about starfire's alignment is really interesting especially if you think star & jason were scum together.
WHATIn post 286, JasonWazza wrote: I mean Starfire is a newb, especially with the opening newb post having the following.
Would you assume that a town is fake claiming?In post 3, humaneatingmonkey wrote: Do not fake claim a power role as town! While it may help you avoid getting eliminated, you might cause a real PR to out themselves by counterclaiming - then the mafia will know who the PR is, and you will probably get eliminated for lying to town. Feel free to fake a claim as scum, though, if you think it would help.
starfire, if nothing else, has established herself as someone with critical thinking ability who challenges norms, within this game. why the hell would she take a piece of advice in the generic newbie opening post at face value and abandon her critical thinking wrt power role hunting if she was scum?
if you accept that starfire & jason were aligned, you accept that jason did as much as possible to make his scumbuddy look vulnerable without making any attempt to bus & seem like they weren't aligned.
pc accepts a lim between
dkkoba votes ender for putting mikhail at e-1In post 303, JasonWazza wrote:
I'm just going to point out that Mikhail got banned, I don't honestly think their posting is Alignment indicative, and they seemed to be mostly on this site trolling.In post 299, DkKoba wrote: i didnt read any of this but im just gonna bin it town for d1 lmao, on skim there is a lot of effort in analysis of micro stuff which is >rand town often
jason responds suggesting mikhail were here to troll which is like.... oof
@Smiley -- this type of read is the distinction I'm looking for when I talk about things presenting as genuine. (Sorry this one is a little self-serving, lol)In post 319, DkKoba wrote: and from a mik town POV, starfire looks town working around it as an uninformed party, with genuineness around iavh seeming to latch onto the awkward play to gain a miselimination. And it is reasonable to do so here as the dayplay following said claim is pretty solid and townreadable (kudos starfire for not getting caught up in fancy play = mafia btw!)
Generally speaking, it's very hard and very rare that scum are genuine when they are pushing someone else as scum. Bussing is the main exception.
jason pivots off the [starfire, ender] scumteam read because of tunnelling koba over a fairly semantic disagreement.
jason has evaluated one of those scumreads at the moment.
---
dkkoba vs. pc isn't useful.
In post 384, JasonWazza wrote: I've read what you said about PC, I can think your wrong, I don't think he is manipulating me, because I came to the reads I have before discussing with PC in general.
My check with PC was doing a sanity check that I'm not just thinking something stupid, which I'm not and that is clear from the consistent strawman arguments you have been making.In post 395, JasonWazza wrote: Happy is clearly town from how they were calling out Mikhail, like from as early as like page 2.
How happy had to claim is frankly beyond me.
jason using the opportunity to pocket both players who we now know are masons.In post 403, JasonWazza wrote:
Hey are you still around?In post 378, iamveryhappy wrote: wtf is the cross
i think this strongly indicates that jason has clocked iavh/pc as having high mason equity. i can talk y'all through the evidence for this if it would help, but just, like, stating for the record.
ender makes another really long post to explain his mikhail push.In post 444, ender wrote: but everything i just said above changed when mikhail pointed out their supposed partner (Starfire) and then iavh claimed. now we had a counter claiming town PR. i admit i wasn't really entertaining the idea that mikhail could be fake claiming as VT so in my mind they had to be either mason or scum. maybe there's the flaw in my argument, but let me proceed. with two claimed power roles, there is an easy way to figure out who is telling the truth: elim one and see the flip. and in my opinion, when weighing between a claimed mason and a claimed cop, it is more beneficial to elim the mason first because they don't get a night action, whereas the claimed cop at least has a shot at getting a result.
what interests me here is that he mentions not having considered that mikhail might be a vt who was fakeclaiming as a gambit. that was exactly what jason considered a scum perspective from starfire; jason seems to skip over this when it comes from ender.
ensuing conversation between ender & jason is really interesting.
Spoiler:
jason comes out pushing a dkkoba/ender team, having abandoned the starfire scumread; vote remains on dkkoba due to a semantic disagreement.
at this point the vote count is:
DKKoba(3): Starfire, JasonWazza, Political Clout
Starfire(1): SmileyDude1
Political Clout(1): DKKoba
Not Voting(4): Maduisha, Alianna, ender, iamveryhappy
jason not interested in interacting with starfire here; read doesn't develop, remains focused on dkkoba/ender.In post 459, JasonWazza wrote: That's fine, main thing is telling the truth of your mindset.
Think most likely right now is DkKoba/Ender.
i think i'm starting to see a bit of where a jason/starfire team worldview might form?-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
just quoting this so i remember to scroll up to evaluate ender. ender does explain how he ended up on both mikhail + iavh wagons, but still doesn't have any reads. when entering both wagons, gave a mechanical explanation for entering them, and conditions for leaving them.In post 481, DkKoba wrote: I find enders style similar to mine so I may be biased , but it feels like a towny mindset.
The humility is a good look too
(scroll up) smiley remains critical of starfire's push on iavh from much earlier in the game; no other opinions outside of those already stated?In post 483, SmileyDude1 wrote:EBWOP
jason continues to post, does not acknowledge smileydude
In post 513, JasonWazza wrote: I'm frankly done trying to interact with Koba, they don't have a town mindset, simple as that.
jason forcing 1v1 with koba to avoid reevaluating starfire or ender feels noteworthyIn post 514, DkKoba wrote:
I sincerely wish you the deepest shame if you are town, when you see my flip( or when evidence is too overwhelming to continue pushing me) lolIn post 513, JasonWazza wrote: I'm frankly done trying to interact with Koba, they don't have a town mindset, simple as that.
You have shown 0 good faith
jason tells maduisha to vote koba
maduisha vs. dkkoba is about to become a thing and i'm already bored except for being curious about how jason will position himself given this will drive a wagon off his scum suspect (koba), away from his other scum suspect (ender) and wildcard previous scumread (starfire) towards someone who he, uh, ostensibly townreads maybe (maduisha) who ends up flipped.In post 526, JasonWazza wrote: Unofficial VC
Starfire (1): SmileyDude1
DKKoba (E-1): Starfire, JasonWazza, Political Clout, Maduisha
Political Clout (1): DKKoba
Not Voting (3): Alianna, ender, iamveryhappy
Note that Koba is at E-1
PC draws attention back to enderIn post 591, Political Clout wrote: @ender who are you now looking at as possible scum?
jason moves onto ender, who he is setting up as a partner with koba. pc joins this wagon. alianna joins wagon, smiley town by tone.In post 603, JasonWazza wrote: Ender Roleblocker, Koba doing this to try and redirect sus away from them.
ender read list; a lot of null reads, read on jason is markedly different from reads on any other slot. wagon so far is [jason, pc, alianna] but ender states he is holding off on voting because he's not convinced scum is on his wagon yet.In post 610, ender wrote: despite the fact that i'm at E-2 i'm not so convinced that there's a scum on my wagon yet. but probably watch the circumstances around the E-1 and Elim votes if they happen.
i'm going to hold off on a vote for now while i continue to think and analyze, since no one yet jumps out at me as obv-scum.
smiley considers jason/dk both town based on a ~vibe~.In post 613, SmileyDude1 wrote: Yeah sorry about that guys. I've come down with a cold recently and between that and work I haven't been able to gain as much traction as I wanted. I'm trying to focus my efforts to make myself useful as I don't think I have the energy to attempt to hard sort the Jason/DK interactions. I'd say that on a surface-level I lean towards TvT based on vibes rn. I also think your explanation in 479 feels like reasonable progression, but I am wary of you being experienced enough to fake something like that
this is pretty astute; the scum who are active in d1 are working to keep townies around who are limmable later.In post 630, DkKoba wrote: Did you not notice people pushing you for nonsense reasons earlier in the game? Once the distractions of me/ender are gone who do you think is going to be under fire? Like they'll have a field day with you appearing to be hopping on Pc and wazzas pushes
My PC push actually partially comes from seeing how he treated your slot in particular because I found you towny fairly easily
maduisha puts ender to e-1; dkkoba votes for PC again then maduisha
In post 647, humaneatingmonkey wrote: vc 1.7
ender(4): JasonWazza, Political Clout, Alianna, Maduisha [E-1]
Starfire(1): SmileyDude1
DKKoba(1): Starfire
Maduisha(1): DKKoba
Not Voting(2): ender, iamveryhappy
if smiley is scum, this is a really good post (advances a mislim; +pocket towards koba, distances from jason)In post 654, SmileyDude1 wrote: Looking at the DK/Jason/PC combination I feel like PC is the most likely scum here. The back and forth between DK and Jason feels like Town tunneling each other based on a playstyle clash and I feel like PC kind of faded out of it.
If there's scum in Koba/Jason I lean towards the latter as I disagree with the origin of the back and forth (IMO, it's fine to provide reads without having read the full game as long as you're willing to change them as you go along like DK has) and I liked both DK and their predecessor
I would prefer pressure on PC, but if we're solving it with Cop check then I'm fine leaving it for today. Let's try an alternative VOTE: Maduisha
In post 657, DkKoba wrote: this feels like you passed a speech 100 check and just said the exact thing that fully appeals to me LMAO glad to see my perspective isn't crazy
whoever is scum has navigated this end of day really well. this is a good position to be in.In post 669, ender wrote:
yeah that makes sense. i don't actually think you're likely scum at this point. so far your play has felt town motivated. but one can never be too sure so i figured i'd put that possibility out there.In post 667, DkKoba wrote: nah I just genuinely know the feeling of being miseliminated in a manner like this after trying, I would probably give like a super half baked defense as scum that doesnt try to genuinely dispell the stuff people are pushing u for - although like now thinking, my past scum MOs have been to hard defend a town wagon (but to be fair to the context- I was defending you while *I* was a wagon and didn't even flinch from that when it shifted to you and stayed consistent, whereas as scum I will only shift over once I see pressure building on someone to position myself for cred)
(Also why it's objectively ridiculous we are being paired at all because why is my positioning *like that* here if I am your scumbud lmao, being informed means being able to convert people's positions into positioning yourself knowing the right answers - something I feel PC did with maduisha back when they vanity voted the slot)
jason asking pc why he unvoted ender feels noteworthy
jason's first interaction with smiley at allIn post 676, JasonWazza wrote:
I mean, this is just a fancy way of saying, wasn't even present.In post 654, SmileyDude1 wrote: and I feel like PC kind of faded out of it.
How exactly is this scummy?
pc kinda lays out exactly what i'm seeing with enderIn post 692, Political Clout wrote:
ender to me feels so...rigid? linear? I'm not sure 1 dimensional I think is a much better term. he saw mikhail tal claiming and basically said let's not bother with mik and let the mafia sort them which I think fair-ish and when happy was going at mik ender decided to vote them, then mik got cc'd and then said okay I believe the cop claim now let me vote mik. The play overall just feels a bit like it's exactly what you would almost expect. but I'm not sure if I believe this like in everygame no one ever does what you expect. the major thing for me is if ender is town does he actually believe the mik claim so early does he not question it? does he not think someone going after mik might be town motivated especially since if vanilla they don't know the setup at all.In post 690, Alianna wrote:
Koba's a gut read + I expect them to become more readable later on and am not keen on pushing them today.In post 689, Political Clout wrote:
talk to me about starfire or kkoba or we can talk about ender and really tuck into his slot.In post 687, Alianna wrote: I had a look through Koba's ISO to see why they think ender is town and...I actually kind of see it? Like, I do see them being very open with their thoughts and providing the receipts for their actions even if the logic itself doesn't work.
Spoiler: the quotes I was looking at
I do still feel cautious of their push on happy though.
Part of me wants to hold onto my vote because I don't have any other leads, but the scumread has weakened significantly.
UNVOTE: for now, at least.
What do you want to talk about re: Starfire/ender?
I always think about what does it mean to play to your win condition and what does that actually look like in games. Do I believe ender's play so far is town motivated not really. why? he isn't solving the game simply trying to appease everyone.
mik has claimed okay let's not touch them
happy is going after mik okay let's vote them
happy is cc'd mik okay let's vote mik
ender's response kinda just justifies his current position; there isn't anything in the way of expanding here. principally defensive, not advancing reads on others.
yeah this is exactly it.In post 694, Political Clout wrote:
it's funny I was battling with this exact question. if a townie is doing exactly what I expect a townie to do but isn't being inquisitive, isn't pushing anyone, isn't really digging into the meat and potatoes of people just looking at the surface of the game seeing something happen saying it's scummy and then voting the scummy person are they a townie or trying to pretend to be one? In this particular situation it is a unique situation by all accounts.In post 693, ender wrote: if no one does what you expect, why do you expect it? anyway, how is "he did what i would have expected him to do, he must be scum" a reasonable scum read?
someone has claimed mason and another player in that game is going after the mason so you ender vote that other player. by all accounts that's sorta fine on it's own but not wondering about the other player at all what their alignment is why they're going after a pr and simply just voting them. like I understand you have umm idk machinations or thoughts going on in your head but essentially no matter what it is you say about it being an oversimplification or what your reasons are it just boils down to your vote and your reason for voting them. I know that might not be fair to you but to me that's a large part about how I play the game.
then the other player cc'd mik the mason claim and so you unvoted the other player and voted mik. again it's what I would expect someone to do but it feels so bland when I actually see it happening because mik didn't vote happy at all and you don't pause for a moment to gather you thoughts or wonder what is happening in the game you simply accept it and trod forward with your worst foot to the front and vote mik, and then stop looking at everyone else while you're doing it.
also what strategy are you using you talk about it a lot, you strategizing, using logic, solving the game, but I honestly don't see it can you explain what strategy you were using or what logic you were using?
if you are leaning scum on maduisha and smiley why aren't you asking them any questions or making a case on them? because so far because so far you have only defended yourself infact when you vote mad you ask mad a question asking to justify their vote? or to answer a hypothetical? idk I forget.
really good sanity check for me on smileyIn post 701, Starfire wrote: Want to preface this by saying I hope you're feeling better @ SmileyDude, I feel somewhat bad about pushing you while you're potentially ill.
That said,
I actually really like SmileyDude for scum right now. Discarding EBWOP, availability, and chatting with me about how to approach the game on a broad level, there are about a baker's dozen posts with content and most of these are piggybacking or soft town reading. Smiley's development goes
1. Tal's claim is anti-town but not necessarily scummy
1.5 Agrees with ender re: Tal claim, offering nothing new
2. Agrees with Keria re: me vs IAVH, offering nothing new.
3. Maduisha is below Keria and PC because vibes, all townish.
3.5 Asks for reads
4. Believes IAVH claim.
5. Votes me for 164, a post about how to approach the game at a broad level they previously accepted at face value.
5.5 Asks me a question that is already answered when asked before by JasonWazza (457 I give my answer, 482 Smiley asks again)
6. Jason-DK is TVT
7. PC is scum out of Jason-DK-PC (but not enough to scumread or vote), votes Maduisha (no explanation)
VOTE: SmileyDude1
smiley responds to PC clarifying what he wants an answer on; next post is a response to starfire's claimIn post 706, SmileyDude1 wrote: precede
---
i still have no idea how to solve this game & i need to go to do irl things for a bit. i'll finish reading later and try to get my thoughts into some kind of "who's scum!!!!" order.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
I totally cheated and jumped to eod2 + d3 and that was a wild ride. Delta's counter-claim very obviously always ended in delta's death, it was either done to disrupt the statue quo of delta/ender solves or it was done by a team without ender to stop iavh from re-evaluating
I'm not going to put much stock in it. Scum win rate is higher for swapping a goon for a mason. It's a fine play from any team and I don't see myself investing time into second guessing it.
A lot of my solve will likely come down to how slots interacted with Jason, and flipped town's reads.
Still in & out but it won't take me a lot longer to read & note the relevant stuff-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
i have a strong gut feeling about who i should be voting here and i'm really mad about it.
@smileydude1, given only 1/3 of us can see the scum pt right now, what do you think your odds are of successfully guessing the NK motivation? i did the check on who would be better killing alianna before IAVH. scum definitely had ~a~ strategy with it, but i don't think i have a snowflake's chance in hell of guessing what their strategy is.
what makes you think that you can guess why scum made their NKs, when their entire approach to n2/d3 was clearly to sow as much WIFOM as possible?
i think you are correct to evaluate your tunnel. please re-evaluate ender, because if we keep talking about night-kill analysis in a game where scum have played both well and confusingly, we're going to be here all week without getting anywhere.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
i think i'm going to vote ender, and i don't know if there's much point stalling this day out much longer.
ender, i'd be really keen to jam about site meta etc. post-game. if i'm wrong, some of this might sound like i'm coming at you on a personality level; i'm absolutely not, you're delightful.
ender is responding to all of the points i make, but it's kind of still just policy/objective stuff & qualifying his earlier stances. he makes absolutely perfect sense, and all of his decisions feel justified - which is not a towntell.
it is a tell that he's aware of (perceived) objectively good play. i think this is a trait from a meta many years ago, and it's something i've referred to in my past as a "wiki tell". like, he's read the wiki, he knows how people *should* play the game of mafia, in an ideal world. he's quick to jump on people for perceived flaws in their play. i'm not sure that i've really seen him make an attempt to read a player based on more than this. when i'm looking for scum, i'm looking to discern who is genuine vs. non-genuine; i'm looking for players who say the right thing, but when you peel back the layers, their intention doesn't advance a town win condition (or does advance a scum win condition). i'm not really seeing this in ender's reads.
he does have an analytical, very much a "by-the-book" style, and it's absolutely logical. as i said, all of his answers & explanations make perfect sense. if everyone plays this way, the most charismatic person with an analytical brain wins - and ender is definitely charismatic! but what i'm trying to find is that little spark, that little bit of soul behind them, just a little bit of ~why~ ender started to feel the things he felt, not just think the things he did, and i'm just coming up short.
these wiki tells are something that either alignment can replicate. genuine thought, original ideas, making the decision to go against the status quo because it *feels* right - that's stuff that is significantly harder to fake as scum. that's the stuff that's missing when i go through ender's posts.
i have liked some of his takes, but the moment i go back and look at them critically, i realise that either:
(1) they're reasonably safe (one/other more vocal voice/s have already established them), or they kind of just go back to mechanical / very 'logical' grounds. i haven't really been convinced that ender has read something in this game and had an emotional reaction, or a powerful belief that somebody in the game had malicious intent. he has had "lightbulb moments", but they tend to focus on perceived play quality & meta, rather than looking for players who have intent to advance the mafia win condition.
(2) they are just very safe, or very middling. when he votes on d1, he presents situations where he would rescind his vote (advancing a 'mechanical' style of solve, while trying not to rub players the wrong way). his readlist mid-d1 was a classic example of this. i've snipped this to an unrecognisable extent i'm so sorry but have a read of it in full after you consider this point.
his only decisive read is on jason, who is firstly playing objectively very well, and secondly is the only player who scum is motivated to townread. i know that from a mechanical perspective, scum heavily townreading other scum isn't exactly prudent, but i think this just boils down to cognitive load. if ender is scum with jason, he has the opportunity & the intention to townread jason. he's writing a readlist, which is already outside of his comfort zone. the fact that his read on now-flipped scum is just worlds different from the way he approaches the entire balance of the player list is a red flag.In post 610, ender wrote: 1. Maduisha - has alight scum leanfor me.
2. Political Clout -currently a null lean.
3. Jason -town mindset.
4. iavh -i buy his claimat this point.
5. Alianna -null-town read.
6. SmileyDude1 -light scum lean.the only player (not slot, player) with fewer posts than him this game is Wayward, who only posted on page 1.
7. DkKoba - and change their mind gives me atown lean. especially since i'm apparently an easy elim, it would be very tempting as scum to just pile on.
8. Starfire -null for now.
ender's interactions with jason d1 are like, superficially fine, but very much within jason's scumrange.
- jason threw a vague scumread to ender, but this was on the basis that ender was scum *with* starfire. regardless of whether he's scum with my slot or ender, this is good practice because it establishes a basis for pushing the other player if he needs to bus.
- jason establishes a vague scum connection between koba/ender while pushing koba, which is again very good practice if he's scum with ender and needs to bus.
- jason does eventually vote ender when his push on koba no longer seems feasible, but only after sowing the seeds of ender making sense as scum with starfire, and separately making sense as scum with koba. this is a very good strategy, and a very sound setup for a d1 bus if jason needs to. for the record, jason is absolutely a player who is prepared to bus if he needs to. he would be communicating with his partner through this if it was a bus.
- ender does not meaningfully fight back against jason's scumread, despite the fact that he is generally very quick to explain & justify his decisions when players perceive his play as flawed or scummy. jason & ender did interact, but it was a conversation initiated by jason which was dense with double-standards and focused on fairly benign unimportant parts of ender's play. i quoted this convo in my catchup posts.
this gamestate makes, by far, more sense with scum!ender. pc was a very obvious night one kill, i can go back and explain why if you need but look at the way jason interacted with pc d1 - scum knew he was a mason from the get-go. alianna was obviously a weird kill. i don't really want to try and analyse night kills in a lot of detail, so i'm really trying to focus on the gamestate here.
at the end of day two, dkkoba outed a delta/ender scumteam kinda suddenly, and very vocally. this was reasonably congruent with other players' reads, and i do think jason was fairly easy to catch as scum if you reread the game mindful that koba, pc & iavh were town (he was clearly unfair in his treatment of koba, and very obviously (and very successfully) pocketed PC on day one). that slot was catchable. catching one scum after a miselim has successfully called both scum generally means that scum are kinda screwed - so they are looking for a miselim.
i owe smiley credit for the big brain moment i'm having right now, because he kind of nailed it on this page. one of the stronger, longer-lasting tunnels in the game has been from smiley against my predecessor. scum only need to swing a *single* miselim to win this one; but that's hard to do when consensus points 2/2 towards the scumteam.
especially with the benefit of the consensus at the start of d3, i think scum are pretty unlikely to get smiley to go out on a limb and vote my predecessor while there's a towncore alive to push the delta/ender team. so it's suddenly in their interest to set up an endgame where smiley's vote has significantly more weight. if the remaining playerlist is:
mason-iavh
vt-alianna
vt-starfire (mislim)
vt-smiley (misvote)
goon-delta
scum-something-ender
... then the remaining night kills are pretty clear - it's alianna & iavh every time.
i do think killing iavh first and then alianna would have firstly, made it a lot more obvious that scum were positioning for this miselim (i'd be willing to say that alianna seemed like, vaguely less towny than smiley). secondly, having a mason alive on d3 enabled the absurd mason counterclaim, which basically stopped d3 from being a factor. this meant that smiley did not have an opportunity to advance his read on starfire while there were other townies alive.
i don't know whether alianna and/or iavh would have, like, insisted on an ender/delta team or whatever. but i do think this is a much lower risk gamestate for scum. this type of strategy is something that's likely to make sense to a more analytical player, and i think it very much tracks for a scumteam of ender + jason=>delta.
i'm realising as i type this that jason did a very good job of steering the game away from solving literally our three slots which is so infuriating.
smiley by comparison:
- had unconventional reads day one. if he's scum, he locked himself out of potential avenues. i also kind of just, like, believe a lot of the things he pushed. like they're not necessarily the angles i would've taken but i can kind of get where he's coming from.
- reacted to mikhailtal in a way that felt closer to genuine/empathetic than to 'too much information'. i think that situation was something which scum would've had an easier time capitalising on.
- had nearly no interactions with jason. this is a red flag. i'm just wary that jason has a notoriously good scumgame, and avoiding interacting with his partner who has strange opinions just feels, like, kinda wrong.
- absolutely lacks any semblance of guilty conscience; if smiley is scum, the way he bussed delta was absolutely glorious. the tonal relief in his posting after quickhammering delta's self-sac claim was :chefkiss:. honestly i think a little dark part of me wants smiley to be scum because like 2/3 of his iso would just be very good posts if he's scum.
- is answering me about the "genuine" thing, and like i think we have a massive impasse in my understanding of his read there, but it doesn't feel at all like he's making stuff up.
- i spoke about gamestate while talking about ender. this gamestate does make sense for scum!smiley as well; scum!smiley needs to crossvote me (he's established this as a possibility), or have ender & i crossvote (he's sowed the seeds of paranoia about the reason he's still alive). i think i just have to apply occam's razor here. it's not impossible that smiley is scum who set this up, but the amount of bigbrain 3d chess involved is significantly more than the relatively straightforward strategic approach that scum!ender would've had to take-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
scum is *not* motivated to vote for me here.
town currently has a 25% winrate (one vt needs to vote correctly (50/50); then the other vt needs to make the correct decision (50/50)).
as soon as the remaining scum votes for me, they remove the chance of me voting for the other vt
hence why i was a little pinged that ender cased me, didn't seem concerned about smiley, but was hesitant to vote me. i don't think he was "giving me a chance" as town; i think regardless of ender's alignment, he's made his mind up. as things stand, i think he was holding off on voting because he didn't want to antagonise me in case i voted for smiley.
i got halfway through note-taking this yesterday, then started the alternate smiley world, felt really bored and i just keep talking myself back into ender.
alright if i'm wrong i'm going to feel so bad
VOTE: ender-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
so when smiley posts, either scum!smiley wins or he confirms himself as town
smiley if you are town i'm aware that the above is like, a feverish wall of moonlogic. talk to me about what you need. i can talk through where i think my predecessor's actions are town motivated, if you'd like. i can answer concerns you have about scum!ender or the ender/delta team.
the big issue w ender is that, like, he doesn't really have... strong opinions... ever. so it's very hard to mount a convincing scumcase directly at him. if you're on the fence, talk to me about what you're seeing / not seeing-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
Yeah, really well played. I'm really impressed by some of your posting.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
You can finally release the devious cackle you've been holding back for weeks!-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
i think this is my favourite post in the game, i tried so hard to unbias myself and believe that it could come from a scumbuddy but it's just so like gloriously cheesyIn post 1279, SmileyDude1 wrote: It's late where i'm at and i've decided that i've had enough of this desperate attempt at a counterclaim. As Ender mentioned above if you are a mason than this game was lost when you didn't claim yesterday.
VOTE: Deltabreedy
iamveryhappy, I would recommend taking another look at Jason/Delta's interactions during the night phase in case scum decide to kill myself over you. There's a big decision to be made tomorrow and any links we can find could prove useful here.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
don't sell yourself short you played absolutely fine. i think it's fairer to credit scum for playing well here than discredit town for playing poorly.In post 1322, ender wrote: Sorry everyone else. I hope there's no hard feelings, I know I played very badly, and pretty much single handedly lost us the game. I understand any frustration sent my way.
I guess there's always next game.
Oh and... damn it, being "too angry" after a bad hammer/flip is a scum tell, I shouldn't have let you play it off. I'm not going to back off of that next time.
i think a lot of the missed connection you might've felt this game is meta related. circa 2017-2020 there was a real advent of hyper-posters on mafiascum / elsewhere (which i'm sure you've noticed), and the more detailed analytic style of play slowly became a rarity. pre-2017, players were encouraged to punish perceived poor play decisions. it was like, a community meta decision, to encourage certain styles of play which would increase the general quality of games. we're just in an era where those holistic meta decisions have gone out of fashion.
during the hyperposter site meta, it became really popular to look for scum based on who felt the most earnest / like they were having the most like, real, believable, personable thoughts (aka. kinda wonky because brains do be like that) as town, rather than the people who played the "best", if that makes sense.
idk which era we're in at the moment but i did notice some missed connections with your slot and wondered if this might be a helpful concept to talk about postgame-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
okay damn that's hilarious.In post 1324, SmileyDude1 wrote: TBH, that post was actually kind of a slip on my part (note how I used myself when referring to scum night kill choice instead of me),
Fortunately that wasn't picked up on
i've trained myself out of using like, phrasing as a reason to scumread people, given i post in a righteous frenzy and english isn't everyone's native language etc.
but now i know how to catch u next time.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
we should wait for the monkey to call the game over, just as a rule
(Thank you though I tried, I'll be here for my post game roasting )-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
This is part of what I loved about smiley's play bahaha. He was given a reasonable quantity of appreciation for towny play and projected the most self assured energy about it.In post 1334, Alianna wrote:
This didn't age very well, did it?In post 1190, Alianna wrote: Yes, all hail King Smiley!
Gg everyone.-
-
the worst Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Snuggly Duckling
- Posts: 36959
- Joined: November 7, 2015
- Location: pond
+1 to the compliment too! Even if I'd voted correctly (which like, wasn't going to happen), I don't think I could've really made a compelling case for your lim which didn't sound like it was pulled out of thin air.In post 1341, SmileyDude1 wrote: Funnily enough this is my second game of forum mafia ever actually. Before joining here, my experience with this game was mainly as a mod irl with family and watching side streams featuring it online (Originally found this game via the Smash Summit series, if any of you are familiar with that).
Will say that I did lurk around this site for a while before joining reading games for fun, so i'm familiar with a good chunk of the lingo but i'm fresh in terms of experience.
I'm flattered by the compliment though
I hope we roll scum together soon <3
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.