Newbie 1691 - Game Over

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #1575 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 2:55 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

@A50/Ircher: Well, Summer protecting me was why I wasn't killed, but not why I wasn't targeted. "Why are you still alive" is actually a pretty decent question in that situation. But "they killed Thor to shut him up" was a legitimate answer to that question (ditto the idea that I might be an obvious N1 doc protect, therefore I shouldn't be targeted), and obviously N2 was a PR kill. So that's a point of suspicion, sure, but not even close to condemning.
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Post Post #1576 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 2:56 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

PS Egg himself expressed a "I thought Smith was a BP" read, which was actually a super reasonable reason for mafia not to target me (and IIRC I'd thought of that as a bit of TMI, ditto the "hooker" reference which seemed like possible picking up lingo from wolf chat).
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Post Post #1577 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 3:01 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

btw, I was actually mentally playing around a bit with "just go with Thor's reads" as a strategy (and it partially informed my D2/3 behavior tbh), which would have actually won the game for town if I'd stuck with it. I don't mind admitting when I'm in part sheeping someone who's a lot smarter than me. If only I'd stuck with it :lol:
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Post Post #1578 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 3:54 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

btw, A50, when you're under that much suspicion, you simply HAVE TO put in the effort to get yourself out of it. Empty AtE BS won't cut it. You really really looked like a wolf who basically just gave up because he was outed.

I mean, your defense was basically "trust me I'm not a wolf" and "here's some vaguely suspicious stuff from KAAG that might point to YA". You gave me NOTHING to work with. I was practically begging you two to give me stuff to work with. Clumsy didn't because he was a wolf. You didn't because... honestly, I have no clue why.

I mean, you didn't even have to go that far back to see when I was thinking it was probably YA/KAAG. You could have mined that portion of the game. You could have sold the YA/KAAG "fight" as being just as fake from YA as KAAG. You could have put in the work on KAAG to show that KAAG-Egg as a team simply didn't make any sense. You could have done that or more. You just... didn't.

I'll take the blame for the Ircher ML. I'll take the blame for not fighting the Radja lynch (though I had gone back and forth so much on that slot that I wasn't really super opposed to it). But I don't know if anyone would have sided with you given the info on the board. And you choosing not to change that fact... I dunno. If you care, you'll improve. If you care, you'll try harder next time you're in the situation. If you care, you'll do your best to learn from the game.

I care, so I'm trying to learn from it. Even though it's hard. Even though it's hard to even figure out what I truly could have / should have done differently. Even though it's hard to force myself to address my inadequacies. Even though I'll probably screw it all up a different way next time. Even though maybe I'll just repeat the same mistakes until it gets through my thick head. Because I hate losing. Because I hate playing poorly. Because I feel like shit every time this happens, and I HATE feeling like this. I dunno. Maybe that's just me.
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Post Post #1579 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 4:32 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

btw, I'm legit looking forward to your review KAAG. I bet you're going to be super impressed by my play
Spoiler: Actually
Actually I read dead chat

:lol:
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Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #1580 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 5:54 pm

Post by Eggman »

In post 1569, SummerInWonderland wrote:Smith's play was very very obviously town to every single town player. Not a single one even remotely scumread him. If you had listened to a single dead/confirmed town player, we probably wouldn't have lost this game...

Huh, near the end of the game I was starting to shift my scumreads to KAAG and Smith. Well, congrats KAAG and YA/Clumsy! Hope I can play again with you guys in the future.

(Side note: I was thinking of voting KAAG at around the logic post point, but that would have taken me off of OMGUS and for whatever reason I thought that meant I would have been hammered easier, so I played it safe with the YA vote.)
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Post Post #1581 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 6:00 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

@Egg: I wish you'd stuck around. Probably I'd have ended up voting KAAG/YA ftw if you had. Oh well. Some you win some you lose.

PS FWIW, I do think you'd be better off putting yourself out there and really making reads, engaging, pushing, etc. I mean, you can lurk and probably end up with a not totally terrible record, but it's a lot more fun if you're putting a lot into it. I mean, when you put a lot into it and still lose anyway, it REALLY sucks.. but when you try hard and win it's really awesome. FWIW, I have a win on this site where I was kinda coasting a bit (see the sig)... and I'm glad I was on the winning side, but it felt hollow. What I want is a game where I'm trying hard and I do really well and I make a legit difference in a team win. It has yet to happen (except in a single wacky "all vigs" turbo game where I stumbled onto a pretty solid wolf read and shot a wolf on N1)... but I feel like it will happen. Eventually. Just gotta keep plugging away, and trying to learn from my mistakes, until it finally works out.
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Post Post #1582 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 7:34 pm

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

It got late.

Will post today.
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Post Post #1583 (ISO) » Sat Apr 30, 2016 11:38 pm

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

First, and most crucially, the need for so many replacements sucked hard. No two ways about it, this is a less satisfying scum win due to that alone. Sometimes it hurts town, sometimes it hurts scum...in this game it hurt town more, especially Eggman + YA leaving.


Spoiler: D1
A horror show of replacements. :( (Well, I say :(...it was :) for scum!)

Scum was spoilt for choice: lurky Eggman who made little effort to look town vs UTL tunneling obv!town Summer and defending her own meta.

Eggman was a gonner until Thor replaced in and town read him (or at least recognised him as mislynch bait). At that point, I decided that Radja would struggle to defend the case against what I perceived as weird play by town!UTL. Decision was made: Radja was dead.

Thor declaring as an IC that he didn't read the thread in full was a bad move, IMHO. I feel Thor's scumhunting abilities would have been good on D2, but the obv!town doc was hardly going to protect him when he had her + smith as Null, which reading the thread in full would have helped him with.

We killed Thor because, as stated, I felt he was a good scumhunter, and he was wrongly reading Ircher as scum (totally sure he'd have fixed that read on D2). The other candidate was smith, but at that point I had suspicions he might be a bulletproof.

Summer: I can't blame you for supporting the lynch, I'd have scum read UTL too in your shoes.

smith: you scum read Aero/Thor. I don't really get why. It felt like OMGUS for Aero voting you. An odd read like that is rarely scum: why would scum draw that kinda attention voting an obv!town when if they really wanted you dead they could night kill you?

With that said, I think you played quite well on D1: you made yourself obv!town IMHO and that got the doc to protect you. This set up D3 with (essentially) two clears (until A50 arrived...) It's hard to catch scum on D1 (you can use D1 content later, but at the time its tricky) unless they're playing bad, best thing you can do is narrow the pool down by coming across towny as the 4th generation village baker.

Same with Summer: came across as obv!town but not so aggressive to be a good NK target, which is exactly what you want from a doc. Protecting smith N1 clearly the right play too.

Ircher: I see why Thor scum read you, and I have to ask: why did you get so cross over a "fake" hammer? Was it fake AtE? That's scummy. If genuine, why?

shannon: if I was going to criticise, I'd say that Thor was pretty towny. I think you found him aggressive: if you are town, and he is town, you WANT him to be aggressive! Thor is the kind of player I like when he's on my team! And he was fairly obviously on your team, IMHO.



Spoiler: D2
As stated in thread (honestly), Newbie 1684 was ending with me (as scum, AGAIN!) involved in 3 way LYLO, so I was a little distracted there.

At the start of the day, I decided to distance from YA by analysing the likeliness of his claim about not understanding the twilight rules on D1. I am still surprised at how little interest I got. All town players who lived to D2 should learn a lesson here: if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck...at least be suspicious that it may well be a duck!

If YA had been lynched, I was hoping to ride the credit for making the case to LYLO. But when it didn't happen, it formed a good part of smith's case on why KAAG/YA is a less likely team on D4. So it was win/win.

shannon gave herself away as a PR when she said:

In post 725, shannon wrote:It's going to be really embarrassing for you if you lead a lynch on me KAAG.


Comments like this (often it's "You won't be lynching me today", i.e. "I'm going to claim a PR") can be sophisticated bluffs, but in a Newbie game the odds are stacked against it. This entire conversation wouldn't have happened if shannon had read Thor's posts at face value about suspecting Ircher, so there is a lesson there.

Until you out yourself, ideally with a guilty or two innocents, simply don't discuss PRs. Good advice for town there.

Ircher made an early case on me, but then called it a reaction test which he said I passed, simply by not even mentioning that he had voted for me. Two lessons here: 1) as scum, not mentioning votes on you unless you're near to lynch is normally wise, 2) reaction tests of this nature only work on players who don't understand lesson #1.

shannon had suspicions on me, and they were right. It is hard though to convince others of cases based on gut reads. Had you made a quote wall of my yuckiest D1 posts (my case on UTL, my defense of YA's hammer not being a LOLHammer, my willingness to hammer Eggman), you might have got some traction. When I look at my own D1, the percentage of scummy things is small, but if you found every one and put them into one post, it would have at least made a case to answer.

Obviously the big event on D2 was the Ircher mislynch:

Eggman voted Ircher after posting a read list with YA at the bottom. The lesson here is vote for your strongest scum read. You can compromise late to avoid a no lynch, but should have been voting YA then.

Summer joined second, primary reason was Ircher's reasons for abandoning the Eggman case.

Smith stated intent, so even though he voted 4th, I'm calling him 3rd. He made his reasons very clear:

In post 813, mhsmith0 wrote:@YA: The core of my case is different than what the others are saying. Here is the #1 reason I'm scum-reading Ircher, from an earlier quote:

The question remains: did you think Egg was scum? If yes, why move your vote away from a plausible lynch? If no, why not either move your vote to a more plausible lynch or make an active effort to get shannon lynched? Your vote move here just seems weird, and I'm really struggling to see how it was a sincere effort to actually get anyone lynched OR a sincere effort to take a stand against the existing wagons.

Instead it seems more like you wanted off the Egg wagon for whatever reason, but at the same time didn't want to be on the Radja wagon OR to be actively lobbying for a lynch of shannon. Which makes me want to know what you WERE trying to accomplish EOD1.


Ircher's EOD1 vote screams out tactical voting. Basically, he wanted to be off Egg and on Shannon, and hand-waved a reason to justify that vote switch. Figuring out WHY he wanted this is difficult, because there are a number of different plausible explanations that would depend on everyone else's alignment.

Just as importantly, by voting somewhere other than the majority lynch (and even more so by abandoning the counter-wagon), Ircher was EFFECTIVELY voting for the majority lynch. Which he says he was "99%" sure of being wrong. Which brings us back to the question of WHY he made that vote. Lack of sincerity in voting is fundamentally a scum-aligned trait (with certain exceptions, such as reaction testing). Ircher represented (at the time) that he was being sincere on Shannon, and now represents that he was sure that Radja was the wrong vote. Except he made no meaningful effort to derail the Radja wagon, and in fact by voting the way he did, helped ensure it would "win" day one. And if he was in fact sure that Shannon was the right answer, he ALSO didn't make sincere or aggressive efforts to kill Shannon off. The whole thing reads like a story that doesn't hold together at all. THAT is why I am "voting" Ircher (with my "vote" basically being a stated intent to vote/hammer, since I'm being conservative here given the hammer dynamics of the board).


Yep, can't argue with it really. Ircher didn't come across as especially towny, especially after Thor accused him. I could see town!KAAG voting this.

Shannon's reason for voting was broadly the same as Summer's.

On the whole, I don't think it was so terrible a lynch. It's not the reason town lost. That came on D3...

Summer: shannon was pretty obviously the PR, and ideally you should have protected her. We (YA/KAAG) thought it was setup B (Goon/Goon/Cop), so we didn't have any issue targetting her...if you had protected, she'd have caught YA! :oops:



Spoiler: D3
This is where it really went wrong for town, IMHO, and as the rest of the dead chat felt differently, I shall explain why I think that.

1) After the claims, we had effectively 2 clears: smith and Summer. I say effectively: Summer was clear, smith is clear to smith, Summer town-read smith hard, would have been very tricky for me to adjust my town read on him.

2) smith, with his green PM, knew that scum is in {KAAG, YA, Eggman}, which is why I wasn't that impressed that you caught me. You could pull names out of a hat and be 33.3% to pick correct, and 100% to have one scum...

3) I didn't think that the case smith made on me () was watertight (best evidence was me on YA at start of D2 IMHO which didn't form part of it) but it came to the correct conclusion nonetheless.

4) Summer agreed pretty fast. So far, so good. Scum are in trouble.

Here's the issue: why not vote THEN? You never changed your minds. You voted me anyway, eventually.

If you HAD voted then, Eggman may have voted too...he has a green PM too y'know! And then he would not have been replaced. And YA may not have flaked.

By needlessly prolonging the day, you allowed Eggman to get replaced, and YA to get replaced. And at that time smith, the impression I was getting is that you WERE ON TO US! Both of us.

Who really benefits more from prolonged umming and ahhing? It's the scum team. All the evidence (or at least most) you used was on D1 and D2 anyway.

Then A50 came in and...tunneled the towniest towny in the game, based on

1) A few newb posts by his predecessor

2) Conf!bias after #1

(Sorry A50, I think that is fair comment)

This allowed me to self-hammer, safe in the knowledge that you'd probably vote A50 in the threeway. As I'm sure you've seen in the scum chat, for a while I wanted YA to hammer himself, but with his absence (he'd gone past the prod deadline way before D3 actually ended), I had to make a call, and I think it was the right one.

smith, you had a grasp of this game when you made the case on me, but A50's arrival made you lose it. The extra time you took didn't change your mind on me at all, but it made you lose that grasp. If you'd been quicker on D3, I suspect you'd have won this on D4.

Time should be taken to allow content. But all the content was there by D3. Taking time for the sake of taking time is bad. I think you learnt this already, judging by D4. It really is my only strong criticism of your play.

(I thought you were taking somewhat too much credit for catching me, which is why I was less fulsome with praise in the dead chat. As I said, hitting a 33.3% shot is not rocket science...)



Spoiler: D4
No blame here: Eggman then A50 made life very hard to town read them all game. As smith said, pretty much every towny except Thor had scum read Eggman/A50, so they all take some responsibility too. YA played really well on D2 in my opinion, which must have made life even harder. Sad that he flaked. Clumsy did the exact right thing, gave off no scum vibes at all. An incredibly hard LYLO.



Overall, town got unlucky with replacements, but a scum win was probably the fair outcome. smith played well overall but the 3-way LYLO was horrible. Summer missed shannon's clues but did well to always have smith higher than me. shannon shouldn't have mentioned anything related to PRs in thread...if you hadn't, we'd have tried to NK smith and failed due to doc, and you might have caught YA (though if we weren't targetting you, I might have done the kill). A50 I'm sure knows what he did...it happens. Replacing into 50 page threads is a public service, not worthy of criticism if wrong. Thor might have tried looking a smidgen townier so doc might have protected him N1: I think if Thor was in D2, it would have been a different story. Eggman was too inactive and not voting YA on D2 was a mistake.

I enjoyed the game, hope to play with you all again. I much prefer playing as town, even if my record suggests I might be better as scum! ;)
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Post Post #1584 (ISO) » Sun May 01, 2016 1:23 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1534, mhsmith0 wrote:I was honestly hoping that you guys were going to give me stuff to work with in final LYLO, but mentally I put "Clumsy doing nothing as town" as a more reasonable explanation than "A50 doing nothing as town".

That seems like a bit of conf. bias, theoretically the tell should apply equally to them, yeah?

In post 1534, mhsmith0 wrote:I mean, I know a good amount of theory, but in terms of actually being able to put it into practice, I'm a total mess (as this game pretty effectively demonstrated). Sigh...

Sadly, theory (aka - how people should play) often hits roadbumps when encountering "how people actually play".
I have no good advice on that...other than becoming an IC and trying to make sure that Newbies learn good game practices :lol:

In post 1543, Ircher wrote:And, I have yet to been NK'd in a completed game.

If I was you, that would worry me.

In post 1544, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:Hard to scum hunt when you've never been scum.

I think Thor will disagree with me here (considering the graveyard chat), but IMHO it's a different ball game entirely, scum vs town. Note: my scum record is P4 W4. ;)

I do disagree.
I think it's difficult to understand what YOU do as scum, and to scum hunt for that.
The issue being that other scum players don't necessarily do what you do as scum (the same as that they don't do what you do as town)
Playing as scum can help in some ways, and it can create inaccurate conf. bias in others.
I don't think you'll know if it helps or hinders (or, more likely, both) until you get to play as scum a few times.

In post 1558, shannon wrote:In future, should I have jumped in and mentioned the no result once the wagon was on Ircher?

I would say no.
At the end of the day, all you knew was he went nowhere.
Looking at the game setup, if you exist, the scum team is goon/goon - so, 50% of the time, when two scum are alive, one will go nowhere.
Now, statistically that does make him *slightly* less likely to be scum...but it is not, in my opinion, a percentage that is worht affecting your reads over in any way at all, and assuredly not a bit of info worth revealing your role over in an otherwise vacuum.

You played it properly, in my opinion.

In post 1571, Almost50 wrote:smith's playing characteristics: indecisiveness, tending to extend the day as possible, town reading someone then degrading them for the same reasons.

I feel like you're describing common newb town in a nutshell right there.

In post 1577, mhsmith0 wrote:btw, I was actually mentally playing around a bit with "just go with Thor's reads" as a strategy (and it partially informed my D2/3 behavior tbh), which would have actually won the game for town if I'd stuck with it. I don't mind admitting when I'm in part sheeping someone who's a lot smarter than me. If only I'd stuck with it :lol:

I will admit that you took pains to quote my reads - and then didn't use them at all in your final conclusion :cry:

That said, though my reads in this game were pretty accurate, my reads, and the reads of other experienced players, won't always be. You should always apply your own reasoning.

In post 1583, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:Thor declaring as an IC that he didn't read the thread in full was a bad move, IMHO. I feel Thor's scumhunting abilities would have been good on D2, but the obv!town doc was hardly going to protect him when he had her + smith as Null, which reading the thread in full would have helped him with.

I disagree with this, I also disagree that SiW was really having her read on me affected by my lack of desire to read the entire game, I think she mistook aggression for scumminess for some reason. Basically if I'd been mor e"hey, mellow out cats, let me playact as a chill professor type....wooooord" she would have been more kindly disposed.

The problem is, that is a playstyle value call, not an alignment value call.
She'll learn that eventually, and it will help (and slowly drive her insane) her play in future games.

In post 1583, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:We killed Thor because, as stated, I felt he was a good scumhunter, and he was wrongly reading Ircher as scum (totally sure he'd have fixed that read on D2). The other candidate was smith, but at that point I had suspicions he might be a bulletproof.

I probably would have kept Ircher as scum in future days, his play was very ugly to me.
Wasn't a fan of you or YA either though - not sure which of you I would have hard tunneled first.
By Day 3 would have done okay.
You probably could have kept me alive for a second phase pretty safely, in the grand scheme, just in a conceptual sense.

In post 1583, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:Ircher: I see why Thor scum read you, and I have to ask: why did you get so cross over a "fake" hammer? Was it fake AtE? That's scummy. If genuine, why?

I would be curious to hear this answered also.

In post 1583, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:At the start of the day, I decided to distance from YA by analysing the likeliness of his claim about not understanding the twilight rules on D1. I am still surprised at how little interest I got. All town players who lived to D2 should learn a lesson here: if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck...at least be suspicious that it may well be a duck!

Conversely, I just had a game finished up where a TOWN newbie derp hammered around.
YA's play was a bit more scum motivated, but the other player looked hideous as well - and town eventually puzzled out he was town.
But the core point is - town should have spent a lot more time *analyzing* YA.
For some reason he got glossed over a lot.

In post 1583, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:3) I didn't think that the case smith made on me () was watertight (best evidence was me on YA at start of D2 IMHO which didn't form part of it) but it came to the correct conclusion nonetheless.

Get used to this.
I have been caught as scum many times.
I have agreed that the case on me made sense...oh, basically never.

In post 1583, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:Who really benefits more from prolonged umming and ahhing? It's the scum team. All the evidence (or at least most) you used was on D1 and D2 anyway.

This is an excellent point and one I wish to second.
Town should take all the time they need.
Town should basically never take all the time they are given.

Learning that (and managing to get a town that can all agree on that) is magical when it comes together. There is a grind to the game, and that grind benefits scum.

In post 1583, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:I enjoyed the game, hope to play with you all again. I much prefer playing as town, even if my record suggests I might be better as scum! ;)

Scum is the easier role, pretty much always.
Town is, for many people, the funner role though - I'm the same way as you, the figuring it out rush is *way* better in my opinion than the 'lulz, fooled you' rush.
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Post Post #1585 (ISO) » Sun May 01, 2016 2:23 am

Post by SummerInWonderland »

In post 1584, Thor665 wrote:, I also disagree that SiW was really having her read on me affected by my lack of desire to read the entire game, I think she mistook aggression for scumminess for some reason. Basically if I'd been mor e"hey, mellow out cats, let me playact as a chill professor type....wooooord" she would have been more kindly disposed.


I didn't take your aggressiveness for scumminess! I actually said I liked how you came in and defended you against Shannon when she called you a jerk :p
I really didn't think Thor was going to be NK'd because he wasn't widly read town or anything! I thought it was much more likely to be smith- I read the scum thread you guys were really thinking about killing him until thor came around :p
And yea KAGG I really should have protected Shannon but at that point I thought she could be it or I also thought you could be the other PR if you were town. So I wasn't confident at all that she was it :( I really should have went with that but I wasn't confident on it and again Shannon wasn't widley town read and I thought she could be an easy mislynch target. Also I was super scared not to have Smith in the game and thought him being around would be hard for scum because of how widely read town was. I should have taken that risk.
It was really hard! :( I think I payed attention to all the wrong details and points because there was evidence with KAGG. I should have looked more when you were talking about UTL and saying how she was faking being mad at Smith or w.e because I didn't buy that but I also thought she was still scum :/ I thought that could still be town motive because town can be super wrong about stuff so I just let that go.
Curiouser and curiouser!
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Post Post #1586 (ISO) » Sun May 01, 2016 3:17 am

Post by KickAssAndGiggle »

Thanks to Jackal for modding. Must be frustrating looking for so many replacements.

Kudos to you. :)
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Post Post #1587 (ISO) » Sun May 01, 2016 6:04 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1585, SummerInWonderland wrote:I didn't take your aggressiveness for scumminess! I actually said I liked how you came in and defended you against Shannon when she called you a jerk :p
I really didn't think Thor was going to be NK'd because he wasn't widly read town or anything! I thought it was much more likely to be smith- I read the scum thread you guys were really thinking about killing him until thor came around :p

You are correct, I was mixing you up withShannon (or KAAG was and I just picked up the ball and kept running ;) )
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Post Post #1588 (ISO) » Sun May 01, 2016 6:25 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 658, SummerInWonderland wrote:As far as I know twilight seems to be dangerous for town.
I don't think we should be putting all of our thoughts out there because we will soon find out if Radja is scum or town.
Giving free information to scum is bad.
saying things like "if he is town I will think or if he is scum I will think" is just giving out free information with no gain to town as far as I can see.


Btw, summer, you kinda outed as PR here. You were a wide town read, and the implication here was you were worried about getting nk'd yourself. It's subtle (unlike Shannon's) but it's something to keep an eye out for in the future. In retrospect, wolf team's biggest mistake this game was not shooting you n1. You were less obvious of a protect than me, but you were still a plausible pr.
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Post Post #1589 (ISO) » Sun May 01, 2016 6:40 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Btw, ircher, if you want to pull eod voting stunts, try doing them in a way that seems towny.

See http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/sea ... pp=&page=6

Iawy was bs'ing super hard eod, but it was obvious he was bs'ing, and it was obvious he was doing it to see what would happen. He was super obv town there (he was also the cop and I shot his ass as a cop catch n1 :cool: before crashing and burning in thread d2 :cry: ).
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Post Post #1590 (ISO) » Sun May 01, 2016 8:01 am

Post by Ircher »

Regarding the fakehammer by Thor:

It was genuine reaction. I had forgot about the Vote Change, so I thought you truly hammered.
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Post Post #1591 (ISO) » Sun May 01, 2016 8:54 am

Post by Thor665 »

Was your actual issue after you realized I hadn't the one you expressed - insomuch as it was scummy of me to reaction test that way?
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Post Post #1592 (ISO) » Sun May 01, 2016 8:58 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

btw ircher, I think it's going to be really interesting when you finally draw a wolf PM. Some people love it, some people hate it (I'm the latter, I don't like lying AND I've had such flagrant and consistent failure as wolf that it's just been incredibly frustrating)... I think you may actually enjoy it.
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SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #1593 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 11:22 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1584, Thor665 wrote:That seems like a bit of conf. bias, theoretically the tell should apply equally to them, yeah?


Maybe. But it was more like, Clumsy was doing nothing because he was winning, which was basically null (because both players were essentially wolves in the sense that they're survivalist and already "know" the answer, and are really just playing to get me to vote the other guy).

A50 was doing nothing while he was aware that he was losing. Giving up like that felt like a wolf tell. Going from what seemed like extreme efforts to get me lynched to basically "blah, whatever"... it felt like he'd tried for the sweep, saw it failed, saw he was in danger, and THEN basically just gave up. It's super hard to reconcile that with a town mindset. Even now that I actually know he was town... I still don't see the why of it. I just don't.

I mean his ISO post KAAG's self hammer was basically all AtE and WIFOM. No self-analysis and/or convincing mea culpa (UTL's "he's trying to be a hero" bit in dead chat actually made sense, and if that point had been explicitly made I might have actually listened), and little work to re-read and think through how KAAG-YA fundamentally made sense or (just as importantly, and I even emphasized this during D3 twilight), to think through how KAAG-Egg fundamentally didn't make sense, etc.

In retrospect, I should probably have given him a firm "you're going to get voted if you don't convince me" deadline before actually voting, like you'd see with 24 hour intent to hammer in a larger thread. Maybe he'd have done something to convince me. That part I think I blew and wish I'd handled differently. The rest... I don't know how you can read that as town. I just... don't. If someone can explain it to me, awesome. I'd love to learn. But I feel like the only way I could have gotten it right would be to 100% tune him out and vote ONLY on what happened pre-subs.

I also feel like it truly would have been the epitome of a hero call with neither side being certain and almost the whole dead town making "hang Egg/A50" their last wills, unless there was something fundamentally obvious and compelling to make the conclusion super clear. I'm stubborn enough to make that call if I see compelling evidence. Barring that... I'm just not. I couldn't let a minor lean I had towards the other slot override the mass of people going hard the other way, and that's if I'd even leaned towards voting Clumsy. Which I wasn't.
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Post Post #1594 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 12:38 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1593, mhsmith0 wrote:A50 was doing nothing while he was aware that he was losing. Giving up like that felt like a wolf tell. Going from what seemed like extreme efforts to get me lynched to basically "blah, whatever"... it felt like he'd tried for the sweep, saw it failed, saw he was in danger, and THEN basically just gave up. It's super hard to reconcile that with a town mindset. Even now that I actually know he was town... I still don't see the why of it. I just don't.

To my mind it was because you were playing the "give me your cases" card rather then the "react to this" card.

A50 was told to create a case vs. Clumsy.
Neither of them did much of anything and both just sat around wheedling at you.
Therefore they didn't engage, because they weren't engaging with each other.

If you had presented a "this is why I think A50 is scum - both of you give me your thoughts", and a "This is why Clumsy is scum - both of you address"situation you could have created a sounding board for yourself. By creating the cases you were considering you could have allowed them to push off you, and since you were putting in effort it would have been a more accurate read of the actual effort they were willing/able to generate. I also advocate "changing your mind" a few times in lylo (even if you haven't) just to keep things off balance and not allow anyone to feel "safe".

There was a reason I noted in the dead thread that you were probably going to vote A50 days before you did, and it's exactly because nothing of worth was being said in the thread. This is not something that "needs" to happen, but if you are going to make a value call based off effort I do think you should poke with a stick a bit more.
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Post Post #1595 (ISO) » Mon May 02, 2016 12:41 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Yeah, that's a very fair point. I really needed to push more. Definitely something to keep in mind the next time I'm in a similar position.
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Post Post #1596 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2016 1:44 am

Post by Thor665 »

There are a couple of "standard" methods for handling lylo, and you did pick one of them.
I will admit it's not my favorite, but I have seen people get good results from it. I suspect the only issue with it was using it to gauge activity levels.
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Post Post #1597 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2016 6:48 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1596, Thor665 wrote:There are a couple of "standard" methods for handling lylo, and you did pick one of them.
I will admit it's not my favorite, but I have seen people get good results from it. I suspect the only issue with it was using it to gauge activity levels.


Well that and the outcome :oops:

I'll also admit the mafia team was better this game than town. Somehow turning that around into a town win... that would have been awesome. At least I've got some specific things to learn from this effort, and hopefully next time will go better. We'll see.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
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Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #1598 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2016 7:13 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 1597, mhsmith0 wrote:Well that and the outcome :oops:

Don't beat yourself up unfairly for that. One of the best things to learn about this game is you will be wrong, you will be wrong often, the goal is to not be blindly wrong. (and to learn to hide your tears when people claim you were blindly wrong and lambast you for it).


In post 1597, mhsmith0 wrote:I'll also admit the mafia team was better this game than town. Somehow turning that around into a town win... that would have been awesome. At least I've got some specific things to learn from this effort, and hopefully next time will go better. We'll see.

Eh, I think they were "better" insomuch as they were dealing with a less experienced town.
I found the play quality on both sides of the alingment fence pretty fairly split.
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Post Post #1599 (ISO) » Sat Jun 18, 2016 1:58 pm

Post by Mina »

Goodbye.

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