Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

Hammer is done. If you have any last words, please share. I'm pretty sure I didn't misread you, but it's not like I've never been wrong before.

[mhsmith0]

If we are actually going to be in LYLO/MYLO (I still think not but I guess we'll see), then I'd say the following:

1) NO ONE QUICK VOTE. DO FOS OR THE LIKE. A BAD QUICK VOTE LEADS TO TWO SCUM ON WAGON LEADS TO GG AND SCUM SWEEP.

2) We probably need to have everyone role claim. This should be in order of most to least suspicious. My suggestion would that everyone picks whoever they think is LEAST suspicious and that person gets to make the list of who has to claim in which order. I'm willing to be convinced otherwise though; what is the proper LYLO strategy is a useful discussion to have if/when we're actually in it.

[mhsmith0]

I'm pretty damn sure Ircher is going to flip town

Because ____?

[mhsmith0]

If Ircher is actually town (and the fact that he's doing this post hammer makes me rethink things a bit), I guess my best guess at a scum team is Egg+YA, with YA both bussing Egg and expressing legit frustration at the way scum chat has been going.

But that's really just a guess at this point. However the flip goes, there's a lot of re-reading that needs to be done.

[mhsmith0]

Quoting this because I need to respond to it in depth tomorrow. But I'll say on thing in response to point 2 now: scum never deserves to win until they've won. If Ircher flips town, I'll be resetting everyone to Null. SIW has been in on the ground-floor of both lynches: if Ircher does flip scum then A-OK but if not, we'd be mad not to at least look.

Yeah if Ircher is town then I'd agree that EVERYONE needs to be looked at with fresh eyes. If he's scum then I'll still be looking at SIW, but she'd be less of a priority than the other slots based on what I've seen so far.

[mhsmith0]

If it's egg +x, any thoughts on x? Or just too early?

[mhsmith0]

So, role claim in this order:

Egg

Shannon

YA
SIW
mhsmith0
KAAG

Barring any objections, this is our role claim order. NO ONE VOTE YET.

[mhsmith0]

The only caveat would be that it might buy us an extra day down the line if we hit scum without a massclaim today, which is fairly likely even in the worst-case scenario

If we hit scum today and we get a night save, we're still in MYLO (mislynch or lose). We really don't gain anything but not claiming.

[mhsmith0]

sorry, "mislynch and lose". LYLO is "lynch right or lose", MYLO is "mislynch and lose".

[mhsmith0]

Oh the irony of everyone but Eggman being here.

Yeah, somehow I'm not shocked. Sigh...

[mhsmith0]

We have two weeks. I can live with waiting a while on him.

@all: sorry for being wrong about ircher. I was dead convinced I'd made a solid scum catch there. Sigh...

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, I getcha, I'm just really antsy 'cos I've done nothing all day and was pretty hyped for some scum hunting :/

From where I stand, there's about a 50-50 chance that your statement is correct

PS This is my first LYLO, so I'm actually kind of stoked about it, even though obviously I really wish Ircher had been scum.

[mhsmith0]

lol this is my first game and first LYLO and I am not stoked about this!! mad stress.

yeah I totally understand that. My first completed game was a scum sweep (I was town... but at least got NK'd on N2 over the outed JK and was told I played well, so that was something), my second completed game was a turbo game where I won with the town (little thanks to my own efforts), and my third game was a town win (went down to the very last day) where I was scum that got lynched on D2. The first time is always the most stressful, where you just REALLY want to win.

PS Regardless of which alignment you actually are, you've spent most of the game getting widely town read, which means that you played well and did a lot to help your team win. If you're town, I'm sorry I've been part of the process that let you down by getting to this point. And if you're scum, I give you a tip of the cap for your play thus far, and vow to try very hard to beat you anyway.

[mhsmith0]

Oh god now I feel old. I'm over 10 years out of college, and in consulting.

You're probably still not the oldest here. I turn 39 in August. -Mod

42 for your friendly neighborhood backup mod.

[mhsmith0]

yep. I'll be re-reading to try and see what I can figure out. Will see what I can see given the filter of "we know these four people were town".

[mhsmith0]

Ahhhh, you three are having a love-in, but at least one of you is a naughty scummer.

By my calculations, this is not necessarily true

...Pedit: I re-read everyone's ISO over the weekend, apart from yours smith (because it looked like a novel!) so I already have my thoughts. But I'll wait for Eggman.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...

[mhsmith0]

Ninja: What are you implying, Smith..? Do you think that KAAG and I are the scumteam?

I'm implying that I don't know, and that an Egg-KAAG scumteam is a possibility (as is YA-SIW, YA-KAAG, Egg-SIW, etc.). Two of you are scum, two of you are not. Depending on who claims what, the battle lines should be clarified a bit.

List is:

Egg (VT)
YA
SIW
mhsmith0
KAAG

YA, you're up next.

[mhsmith0]

dammit egg

[mhsmith0]

I'll wait until all claims are in to get into anything else. Please do the same. I don't want scum team to have notice of who thinks who has which claims. Especially given day chat.

[mhsmith0]

I mean, it's half five in the morning here, I'm allowed to sleep

Nope. Disallowed. Sleep is for the weak

[mhsmith0]

I am... the cop!!!

lol jk I'm Vanilla Town.

So list is now...

Egg (VT)
YA (VT)
SIW (Doc)
mhsmith0 (VT)
KAAG

[mhsmith0]

Before we go further, I want to confirm: are all stated tv players confirming their roles? Was anyone gambiting in some odd way? Or can we get 100% on summer as conf town?

[mhsmith0]

EBWOP: I really don't get it. Would we lynch in Doc CC's? Is it just to try and claim town?

There's a pretty obvious reason to consider lynching in Doc CC's, which I'll expound upon AFTER you re-confirm that you're VT. I am RE-CONFIRMING my VT role, and YA/KAAG have done so as well.

[mhsmith0]

EBWOP: I really don't get it. Would we lynch in Doc CC's? Is it just to try and claim town?

Spoiler: Why we'd lynch inside the CC pair

So if we had a pair of doc/bp CC's, then we would KNOW that precisely one of them was lying scum.
This means that the scum would be:
1 of 2 doc/bp CC's
1 of 3 VT claims
From my perspective as VT, I'm open to either possibility as reasonable. Since I know I'm VT, I see the board as having scum as:
1 of 2 doc/bp CC's
1 of 2 VT claims (other than my own)
OTOH, the two people inside the doc/bp CC grouping KNOW which one of them is telling the truth, whereas I'm at the 50-50 stage for each.
So basically, there's a bias towards lynching inside the CC group unless we're SURE we found the scum in the non-CC group. If we're wrong, we've lost. And if we're right, then the other player in CC is conf!town.

But that's no longer relevant, since we have no CC. So instead the board is:
SIW: confirmed doc town
and four claimed VT's, two of which are scum
It obviously would have been a whole lot easier if scum had killed a VT on N2, but they didn't. Fortunately we at least have one PR left, and can use that to narrow down the list of possible scum.

As KAAG noted, there are a limited number of combinations. SIW has to consider all six potential combos, while the rest of us only need to consider three. So she gets both the privilege and the burden of being conf!town, while the rest of us have fewer possibilities to consider, but also have to deal with playing defense against accusations.

PS FWIW, I'd been reading Egg as a PR for a while now. I thought his insistence on reminding us of his being VT, and his non-involvement in the game (looking scummy enough to make scum think he was lynchable, so they wouldn't want to NK him), and his seeming gambit to start D3, were all from an "I'm really a PR" perspective. So I guess I can toss that one out the window

PPS With the board now more clearly structured, my task is to figure out which of the three possible scum teams in front of me (Egg/YA, Egg/KAAG, YA/KAAG) is the most plausible (or, alternatively, to find the most scummy person, vote him, and try and figure out the rest tomorrow). On my end, this is going to involve a good deal of re-reading because I'm really not ready to make a decision at this time.
I'll try to have some useful reads and/or questions in the reasonable near future, but likely not until tonight at the earliest.

[mhsmith0]

KAAG, can you link me to your most recent two town games, and your most recent two scum games? I plan to skim those to see if I can see some parallels.

@all: ignoring my turbo game (18 min. days), which I don't think is relevant, I have two completed games, one as town, one as scum.

Town: http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... 14&t=52035 (scum was Harb and UDC, 3P was Keirador, result was a scum sweep - this was also my very first forum mafia game)
Scum: http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... alad-Mafia (scum was me, Crunkus and Calvary, result was a town win on the very last day)

Feel free to look through those if you think it's helpful. If YA or Egg has off-site completed games for me to look at, I will try and do so.

[mhsmith0]

can you clarify why you thought shannon was the other PR? I confess I missed it, although frankly I wasn't paying a huge amount of attention. If it was a legit PR read, then I think that answers why her; if it really wasn't, then I'd agree that it opens questions about why her.

PS Who did you protect each night? Since you're non CC'd, I'm not sure how important the why is, but knowing who you visited is at least some additional info for us.

[mhsmith0]

Well I know why I'm alive

I think Thor was killed because he was a fresh and aggressive perspective, shaking up the game. I need to think through the conclusions there some more, but it feels like a "we don't want the status quo to change" sort of kill, though "we just dont' feel confident about ML'ing him" is entirely possible as well. Shannon very well could have been a PR target, I don't know. If it wasn't a PR read, it feels semi-random. Shannon could have been a D3 ML; not the very top of the list, but certainly in the running.

PS I thought Egg's comment about thinking I was BP was interesting. Might explain why I wasn't shot at. Then again, that doesn't really make all that much sense either, at least in night 2. MYLO with a BP losing protection is actually better for scum than LYLO, since it means one more body that can be a mislynch (and then given the ML, the game is won that night, as the BP is one use).

[mhsmith0]

Interesting. Assuming it's the same user, Calvary was my scum-buddy in my scum game but flaked out there too

[mhsmith0]

@siw: just as an FYI, protecting prs is super important in this game. If you're pretty sure you did the pr, she's worth more than I am to the town. There's some WIFOM there of course, and it depends how confident you are in that read, but the town is probably better off with her tracking results (and another confirmed town), or a forced counter claim by scum, than it is with me (even though I'm totally awesome).

Wrt the kills, it's certainly notable that neither kaag nor I nor you were targeted. It's definitely something I want to mull over a good deal more when I have time.

[mhsmith0]

WRT kills:

Thor: scum read YA and Ircher. It wasn't Ircher...

shannon:

I pinned Shannon as cop after she was very suspicious of what she saw as me soft-claiming cop on day 2. Obviously, a tracker can do the same thing as there's no setup with both roles, though this didn't occur to me. I presume that scum figured out the same, thereby explaining her being NK'd yesterday.

We need more sophistication than this?

We may not. I honestly don't know. It's something I'm thinking on.

[mhsmith0]

Kaag, I skimmed your town games and your one scum game, and I noticed that you pushed the idea of a "town flock" in your scum game but apparently NOT in your town games.

So I have to ask: have you ever pushed that idea in a town game here? If so, please find me a relevant example. Because your meta suggests it's a scum tell of yours, and the scum reasoning is easy:

1) if you make it in, you're golden
2) it's MUCH easier to make "honest" town reads when you already know that what you're "finding" is in fact accurate

That's not vote worthy at this point, but it's a troubling sign.

[mhsmith0]

btw, jackal, thread topic and logo still show night 2 rather than day 3.

[mhsmith0]

If you're 100% confident that both SIW (conf!town) and I (not conf!town) are town, you (and YA and Egg) can vote for any among you three, since we won't quick hammer. Obviously if you vote outside that three, then a YA/Egg scum team could quick hammer and game over.

Of course, if I'm scum, then a vote for YA or Egg, if mistaken, could get a quick hammer from me and whichever among YA/Egg is my scum buddy. Which would be game over. So basically, if you're voting for YA or Egg, you need to be REALLY sure either that the votee is scum or that I'm not scum.

PS For the record, I'm not particularly close to being able/willing to vote.

[mhsmith0]

I should have more meaningful thoughts either by tomorrow night, depending on my work load. Obviously a slowed down game is super annoying, but after my misread of Ircher on day two I'm not going to rush into anything.

[mhsmith0]

@Egg, KAAG, YA:

I don't think I'll have the time to really go through things until the weekend. That said, I have a few questions that I'd appreciate you guys thinking on and getting bcak to me on in the next day or two:

1) Of the other two players in your group, which seems likeliest to be town (if for instance I was just playing a really good scum game or something), and why?

2) What signs of plausible team play have you seem between the other two players in your group?

3) What is, in your mind, the thing you have done that MOST suggests that you could not reasonably be scum, because it contradicts what scum would do in the situation?

4) What have you seen in this game that would argue AGAINST a team involving you? (So Egg would argue against Egg/KAAG and Egg/YA, KAAG against Egg/KAAG and KAAG/YA, and YA against Egg/YA and KAAG/YA).

I don't expect you guys to necessarily have perfect answers on these (and possibly some you don't feel like you can adequately answer and might want to skip one, maybe even two), but I feel like it should reasonably help focus the discussion.

PS Egg, you especially I want to exhibit some real thought here. Prove to me that you're invested in thinking through this game. This is a useful exercise REGARDLESS of your alignment.

[mhsmith0]

@KAAG: Do you think that YA was seriously trying to get Egg killed for town cred, or just parking a case on his slot?

[mhsmith0]

Well it's pretty certain that kaag and I aren't scum buddies. Double certain in fact since we could hammer either egg or ya.

@egg/ya: how invested are you guys in each others lynch? Any special reason why you want each other instead of kaag?

[mhsmith0]

Prodge. Will be back tomorow. I plan to do a full re-read, and won't that be fun

[mhsmith0]

Really big wall post coming. MANDATORY READING.

So at this point I'm pretty sure KAAG is scum.

1) KAAG himself:
- his primary "contribution" was to town read summer and me. But that is not remotely inconsistent with a reasonable scum plan. It's EASY for scum to town read people; they already know they're town so finding the "best" town reads really isn't all that difficult.
- moreover, his town reads, especially of Summer, just seemed too easy and too certain. See 62, 115, 121,
- his UTL vote at 300: it was largely a "I don't like you how voted SIW" vote. Chainsaw defense type behavior, which now that we know Summer is town reads as buddying (as opposed to tactical defense of a scum-buddy). There was some of that wrt UTL's behavior towards me that came later on as well; subtler, but also very plausible buddying behavior.
- a lot of his other scum reads were more looking at scummy-looking behavior rather than having a meaningful theory of WHY this person was scum (here, I'll 100% disagree w/ Ircher's read) - see 77, 118
- etc.

2) Egg-YA team makes no sense. YA pushed pretty hard against Egg almost from the beginning; the only way that strategy makes any sense at all is if they're really sure they've ID'd the JK/Cop/Tracker AND that they're pretty sure that there isn't a doc who has ID'd that role (and could therefore protect it). Egg came REALLY close to dying D1; given that YA was pretty high on peoples' scum lists, AND would have gotten little to no credit for Egg's lynch (especially given 389), that's just a horrific scum strategy on D1.
BTW, this point was explicitly called out by Radja on 426, and KAAG in 884... and I have to agree with them.
Moreover, once you're down to just one scum, JK/Tracker each can hard-clear people every night that there is a kill (if there is a kill and the person jailed/tracked didn't do it, then that's a hard clear), and obviously cop can hard-clear or catch people every night as well barring a RB (and since there's a tracker, there can't be an RB).
So the only way that team makes any sense is if YA really wasn't pushing hard against Egg on both D1 and D2 (except he really was), or if they'd correctly ID'd the JK/Cop/Tracker on D1 (and if they had ID'd Shannon, she'd have died N1). So if this was the scum team, they've played a panic type game where they simply couldn't figure out how to do much of ANYTHING except bussing. Which really strains credibility. And I mean, REALLY strains credibility, given how many other plausible cases were floating around, and how close Egg came to dying.
PS I guess 980 is of note as a possible honest moment of YA being super frustrated with a scum-buddy... but it's REALLY hard to find any other evidence of a YA-Egg team.
PPS With a Egg-YA team, YA's reaction to the Thor fake lynch makes no sense either, unless he KNEW that it was fake (and given how many people were fooled, I consider this unlikely, though not impossible). If YA's scum-buddy went down, the LAST thing he would have wanted to do was to look upset over it, since he'd have been an even stronger suspect on D2. It KINDA makes sense as a pre-reaction of "I knew Egg was town so let me criticize the hammer-er"... but I'm not sure. Could be townie pissiness at a day cut short instead.

3) Dead Peoples' Reads (because they DO deserve attention)
Radja

Final reads:

Town

msmith
KAAG
Ircher
Summer
Eggman
YawningAngel
Shannon
Thor

Scum

more detail at 425

Thor
Was very suspicious of YA (his highest scum read of the three i believe, given that he voted for YA, and his point in 657 on YA was very good), and apparently town read Egg.
wrt KAAG, he basically called KAAG's UTL vote logic BS in 593 . Also pushed KAAG's passive voting at 505, and explicitly called him scum in 604, and attacked him against in 657.
I'd actually consider Thor a VERY notable NK here. Radja's last words were to lynch Thor; he was CLEARLY a plausibly day 2 ML. There's always some WIFOM, but I strongly suspect that Thor was explicitly silenced. And with Ircher gone, that leaves two people who really would have wanted him to stop talking and pushing them.

Shannon
Town reads me, SIW and KAAG at 883, thinks scum team was Ircher + YA/Egg.

Ircher

Your last read list:

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)
KAAG (95%) - Fair, unbiased, open, and actively participating and being good town. (Vague, but basically it).
...

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
...YA (65%) - His defense of me seems natural and not opportunistic. His hammer yesterday seemed to be a newb mistake that is the result of misunderstanding how things work, making it null. More on his def: YA/Ircher was scumteam, then his defense of me would basically be suicide. If it was Egg/YA, he'd get called out for trying to bus Egg and would benefit more from trying to lynch me for the association becomes weaker. So, likely newbtown here who miswords some stuff, etc.

...

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)
Egg(-82%) - I outline the reasons why in my "The case against lurkers...." spoilered post. Yes, its cuz of lurking, but lurking isn't policy material, it can be scum indicative, so pls don't discount this as an invalid reason.

Still good?

Other than Thor, I am EXPLICITLY disagreeing with the dead town in my read.

4) Meta
Open 626 ISO
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7655276
More confrontational, more doubting
notably:

I find it borders on insulting to say that someone is obv!town on D1. Your basically saying "I don't think that person could possibly pull this act off if they were scum."
I have great faith that there are some excellent players on this site, who can come across as "obv!town" on D1 when they are scum.

(contrary to his super quick obv town reading of summer and later d1 obv town reading of me)
Open 623 ISO
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7644073
Another post in reads expressing WAY more doubt than he ever showed here:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7625067
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7625979
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p7626220
Just overall, more confrontational, more doubting, more looking like someone who genuinely does NOT know the answer to the mystery already.
Newbie 1684 (Won as Scum)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7687301
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p7688145 - post shows strong town reads pretty early on

Overall, there's more certainty, less curiosity, just overall more similar to his scum game than his town game.


5) Night kills
Thor seems like he was killed to shut him up. WIFOM to some degree, but it points to both YA and KAAG as people who wanted him silenced; other scum teams would have likely thought he could be ML'd on day 2. Shannon MAY have been killed for a tracker read, but it's also entirely possible that she was killed explicitly to suit KAAG's end-game. If scum!KAAG had (or thought he had) me and Summer pocketed, he wouldn't want us gone. And killing YA/Egg would be hunting in the PoE, which he REALLY wouldn't want. So that's incriminating as well; the question is whether scum team truly read shannon as PR, or if they just got lucky.

6) The "doc counter claim" issue
There is simply no legitimate reason for scum!KAAG to counter-claim doc. SIW had been the stronger town read all game, so CC'ing would be a major, and risky, stretch. We'd lynch inside the SIW/KAAG pair, and we'd probably lynch KAAG.
Plus, KAAG had been the wider town read compared to YA/Egg. So scum!KAAG would plausibly look at a VT claim as a coin flip to get the sweep (presuming that YA/Egg were about equally likely to get the D3 axe), and would be comfortable going into 2:1 LYLO against MHS + YA/Egg.
And any time I see a "oh I wouldn't do that as scum" bit, I get suspicious. When it's a dumb argument to boot, I get REALLY suspicious.

7) Re=considering reads

Third, I am not reconsidering my town reads just due to LYLO. My case on YA hinges on you being town.

vs

Quoting this because I need to respond to it in depth tomorrow. But I'll say on thing in response to point 2 now: scum never deserves to win until they've won. If Ircher flips town, I'll be resetting everyone to Null. SIW has been in on the ground-floor of both lynches: if Ircher does flip scum then A-OK but if not, we'd be mad not to at least look.

Funny how that "resetting everyone to Null" bit never really got explored. It popped up briefly in 1073... and then quickly died back down by the time we saw 1125.

PS Where I'm really struggling is to sort YA/Egg. This one is a lot less obvious than KAAG as scum IMO. I lean a KAAG/YA scum team, but I currently consider KAAG/Egg to be reasonably possible, and I need to do more work on this front before I come down with a verdict.

PPS I will certainly listen to counter arguments, but for me to NOT vote KAAG, I'd need convincing evidence of:
1) Behavior by KAAG that is NOT reasonable from a scum!KAAG perspective
2) Egg/YA team play (when currently that is incredibly difficult to find)

Barring that, KAAG gets my vote. I sincerely apologize to all the dead townies who town read KAAG if I'm wrong (feel free to yell and scream at me in post game), but I just really don't think I'm wrong.

[mhsmith0]

I wouldn't worry tremendously much about LYLO behavior wrt team interactions; IMO the bigger indicators come before. In LYLO, essentially everyone in the Egg/KAAG/YA group is "scum" in the sense that they already know the answer (unless any of them think it's me), and they're mainly trying to stay alive.

Signs of team behavior in this day probably aren't impossible to find (part of why I asked the questions I did was to see if anything interesting shook out wrt team behavior), but it's really going back to earlier days where it does or doesn't show up.

IMO an Egg/YA team is just incredibly difficult to fathom given how the game went so far. I won't say it's impossible... but their prior day actions simply don't make sense as a team. Too much risk, too little upside IMO.

PS If Egg/YA were a team, them voting each other could work as distancing, to make us doubt they're together, so that even if one goes down today, the other is more plausible to survive the next day. I just don't think it's overall a reasonable team.

PPS There ARE some things I've been trying to keep an eye on wrt possible team play. I doin't think anything really jumped on my radar in that aspect so far, but I will definitely be looking again.

[mhsmith0]

No rush. I'm not about to slap down a vote tonight.

[mhsmith0]

tldr

more seriously I'll read this tomorrow

[mhsmith0]

Would lol so hard if egg just wandered off during lylo. Guess we'll see if he comes back or we get a new egg.

[mhsmith0]

prodge. will be back soon, hopefully tomorrow.

[mhsmith0]

I think the fundamental questions wrt kaag are:

1) has he actually accomplished anything in this game that wolf!kaag (I'm trying to get away from scum terminology btw) wouldn't have done?
2) was ya's push on egg truly just distancing,where egg was never really in danger?

I'm having a really hard time answering "yes" to either of these questions, much less both. Some of kaags other points are compelling, and I still need to go through his references. But I'm currently having a hard time seeing ya-egg. Not because of rng stuff, but because of the way the game has gone. If this wasn't a hammer game (I.e. It's just most voted at day end) my vote would be kaag. But I'm not 100% yet.

I'll also note that effort is not necessarily alignment indicative. Wolf!kaag would be as motivated to fight his correct lynch as town!kaag would be to fight his mislynch. I admire the work that kaag has but into this game. But that effort doesn't make him town.

That said, the reads list stuff was also interesting. I need specifically to mull that point over.

[mhsmith0]

@Jackal Am I allowed to hold off on posting my substantive case until Eggman's replacement? I have a case to make on KAAG/Eggman but obviously what they say makes a substantial difference.

How much of it depends on what they have to say? I would think that most of the case will revolve around what's already happened this game. If it's specific to what New Egg has to say, ok, but I'd generally prefer at least some of your content to come in ahead of time.

[mhsmith0]

[mhsmith0]

Hardly. Whoever is play Eggman is gonna swing for me out of the gate. Why give them ammunition?

Just to clarify, you're really playing this for the voting audience (me and Summer), so what ammunition you do or don't give Egg shouldn't particularly matter, since either way you'll be levelling accusations his replacement will need to address.

Unless you want to try and sell KAAG to us before the replacement comes in, and convince us to deal with you and New Egg on D4.

[mhsmith0]

Considering his "push" on Eggman, I'm not too worried about YA's case.

OTOH, if Egg is his scum-buddy, maybe he'll be trying harder for you?

[mhsmith0]

As a side note, to the players still around (SIW/KAAG/YA), I will say that my first LYLO has been pretty entertaining. I'd happily play again with any or all of you three.

[mhsmith0]

And as an extreme side note, I'll share the best summary anyone has ever made of my first graveyard thread as wolf (wolf-buddy crunkus, who is awesome btw, lost in 2:1 LYLO but came OH SO CLOSE to pulling it out )

Spoiler: gif summary

[QUOTE=Cron;277123]

EVERYONE IN GRAVEYARD CHAT

(Soah)

(Trafficone)

(IAWY) (Cron)

(Lord)

(SMITH)

This was us for 3 days. Lol. Crunkus was howling.[/QUOTE]

I have no idea what is going on in graveyard right now. Hopefully someone there is having a fun time watching us all.

[mhsmith0]

Well, technically it's trinary (or whatever the real name is): YA-Egg, YA-KAAG, or KAAG-Egg. So it's not like you guys couldn't just be fake fighting right now.

[mhsmith0]

I'll agree that the case that never comes is somewhat concerning. I don't see the logic for waiting at this point. OTOH, I'm willing to wait and see if it justifies the wait.

[mhsmith0]

Nah, kaag has a point there wrt shannon. 895-902 is way too interested in cop claiming. COULD be cover/faking (or scum pretending to), but that's a likely cop role trying for an easy counter. 725 less so, but it's still hinting at it. As an FYI for future, when you're a doc you should be cop/pr hunting too, except in your case to protect instead of kill.

The thor kill I'm less convinced on. Taht reads like a kill by a scum team satisfied with the game state and nervous about a new and aggressive voice potentially shaking things up.

Ps that said the shannon kill and non protect means that scum!kaag would have had to claim BP, not doc. No way would he get away with being doc and missing that one. And he'd have then had to justify the nature of his play inside a BP claim.

[mhsmith0]

@YA: Could you give me a case for why KAAG/Egg make sense as a team? I'm having a pretty hard time seeing Egg/YA as a team (Egg was at L-1 on D1 for a while, with Thor as a TBD item; that EASILY could have gone very badly very quickly for an Egg/YA team).

Also, can you give us some more on

I do not like this SIW vote very much. We're approaching deadline and we would need substantial discussion to lynch her at this point, even if the case were strong. The case is not strong. She's been far more productive than Eggman, and per my original point I think the types of analysis that are open to us on day one are very limited. You don't know anyone's alignment for sure and you don't know which lynches they've seriously committed to (votes before deadline are pretty much just fluff, at the end of the day), so you're left with sentiment analysis. Are they active? Are they trying to make sure other players engage with the game? Are they willing to put material out there that can be checked later and which, hopefully, gives us some idea of who they trust if they flip?

SIW has done all of that. You will note that not half a page ago I was asked to justify my negative view on her and pretty much came up with fuckall. I think Eggman, while arguably a weak lynch, is still our best shot. The case for Radja, while better examined tomorrow, is still more compelling than the case for SIW. As a bonus, if you suspect a scum pairing of SIW and UTL/Radja, then we get substantial value out of lynching Radja anyway, a spot most people read as scummier. Obviously don't hammer yet (for anyone who is in doubt about protocol here, do not hammer until near the deadline and having announced intent to do so well in advance), but consider the lynches that are on the table and already have backing.

Addendum: Obviously shannon can't hammer because she's already voting Eggman. Obvious, that is, to anyone save YawningAngel

What's odd is you made this post soon after Shannon voted SIW (that seems to be the SIW vote you were talking about). And then post "hammer" you tossed in

Are you fucking serious

Also, are we allowed to talk now the hammer's gone down?

Were you aware the hammer was fake? Were you aware that shannon had switched vote? If not, which Summer vote were you talking about in the first place? This whole thing just seems odd the more I look at it. Some of the others I can see as being lazy about vote counting, but I'm really struggling to see you specifically not realizing the hammer was fake since it seemed like you were commenting on shannon switching her vote in the first place.

I'd like more background on this, please.

[mhsmith0]

Walk me through your thought process then, both on your reaction to the Thor "hammer" and then your own quick hammer on Radja. I'm struggling to see the quick transition from "HOW DARE YOU QUICK HAMMER EGG" to "Time to quick hammer Radja". The more I look at this, the more it feels fake. Convince me I'm wrong, and that it was actually real.

[mhsmith0]

@ya: right now I'm thinking the likeliest scum team is kaag/ya, and I'm not especially interested in lynching egg today, though new egg may change my mind of course, but that's where I am. So that means that you have a chance to sell the kaag/egg case unencumbered by interference by egg.

Please also note that if you fail to make much of a case, there's a chance that kaag will convince summer and I to just vote you and end the day that way, even before new egg shows up. So if you're town, it behooves you to make your case before kaag potentially pushes us on to you.

Of course, if you're wolf, it may make sense to sit tight and not do much, accept your lynch, and hope your buddy pulls it out in the final three. If that actually is your plan, please let us know and we'll get to it without wasting your time.

[mhsmith0]

@KAAG: if you want to convince me that Egg is a BETTER lynch than YA, I'll try to keep an open mind, but I'm really not convinced right now.
@YA: if you want to convince me that Egg is a BETTER lynch than KAAG, I'll try to keep an open mind, but I'm really not convinced right now.

I'll also note that my not being "especially interested in lynching egg today" shouldn't really matter that much to you, provided that you read me as town (I know KAAG does, I think YA does too). If Summer and I are town, then town!KAAG knows that YA is wolf, and town!YA knows that KAAG is wolf. So while I'd agree that it makes sense to lay the groundwork for a final day lynch of New Egg (a close loss is still a loss after all... just avoiding a wolf sweep isn't enough), I'm not sure it's particularly a problem for today to lynch inside KAAG/YA. If you think it is particularly a problem, feel free to convince me and/or Summer.

PS the entire game state has been frustrating, tbh. @newbies: this really isn't how games around here normally go. I mean, sometimes you have a high replacement rate when things get toxic (which is its own special type of experience), but the apathy in this game doesn't seem to be normal at all. There's a good amount of blame to pass around on that front (and this may include myself for some over-posting tendencies), though I think that's best served to wait until post game to really get into it.

[mhsmith0]

It's hard. It's really really really hard. Sometimes you have wolf teams flagrantly screw up. Sometimes you have PR's bail you out. And sometimes you're just left with a situation where you have to do the best you can with information in thread, boht from the first two days and seeing if anything interesting pops out from D3.

I'm currently leaning KAAG/YA wolf team. I think it fits the game progression pretty reasonably well (I can't really see anything in the game state which suggests that it wasn't reasonable, and I think it explains a few things, such as day 2: if it was TvT, with both guys as mislynch candidates, it also potentially explains KAAG's seemingly more passive showing that day; ditto KAAG's "I think it was sincere" defense of YA post hammer on D1 that helped pull him off of the D2 danger list; etc.)

I'm having a super hard time seeing YA/Egg; letting your partner get REALLY close to dying (and Egg was L-1 TWICE on D1, even if the latter was a fake hammer) seems to me like a really big reach in this format. The only way it makes sense to let that happen is if it was more or less inevitable (which doesn't make sense given how many options there were on the table, including most notably UTL/Radja), or it was distancing gone REALLY wrong (which again doesn't make sense, since YA switched ONTO the Egg wagon as it was gaining momentum) or if they KNEW who the JK/Cop/Tracker was (and if they did, Shannon would have died N1 instead of n2).

KAAG/Egg... I'm waiting on that case from YA. Off the cuff I'm not especially sure I buy it, but I don't know that there's something really disqualifying about it either.

[mhsmith0]

EBWOP: KAAG's defense of YA's hammer was http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7774051
for some reason I thought it was stronger than that (though of course it still was a defense at a major danger point for YA). I'll dig around and see if I can anything else notable around that time.

[mhsmith0]

I agree that locking ourselves into voting only ya/kaag in either order is game over for town!kaag. But I really haven't been doing that. I've said that I don't want to lynch egg TODAY, and that todya I want to lynch inside ya/kaag.

So let's say from that framework, we lynch ya, and tomorrow it's you, me, and new egg with you under more suspicion (but by no means getting a quick vote). Obviously that's non ideal for you (you'd rather be in the less suspicion slot, regardless of alignment). But is that specifically a problem? Summer is conf!town, in your eyes I'm obv!town, and so if you're town too, then you KNOW it's ya/egg. So why care about the order they get lynched in?

Ps right now I don't find ya/egg particularly credible as a team. Ya keeps promising us a case on kaag/egg. I'd like you to argue the opposite, and convince me that kaag/egg is not a reasonable team given the game development (if you want to take a stab at "it can't be ya/kaag" feel free, but I feel like that's a harder sell), I think that's a useful new avenue of discussion. If you can convince me that kaag/egg is a LESS reasonable wolf team than ya/egg, that's a big step towards getting ya lynched instead of you, and then we can get into the rest on d4.

Pps I agree that egg has done little. Very little. My gut says lazy town, though. I'm willing to reconsider that, but my top two reads right now are you and YA, and so I'm trying to decide which of you is the better lynch today. I 100% promise to more fully re-evaluate in 2v1, but as long as the two of you look wolfier in my eyes, it's a really hard sell until one of you is dead.

[mhsmith0]

I'm leaning there too, but I want to see this supposed kaag/egg case ya has been working on. I'm troubled by ya choosing not to share with the class. And I'd like to see kaag try and argue against that one too. I want as much relevant info on the table for last three, presuming we lynch correctly here.

Ninjad on kaag/egg

[mhsmith0]

Well, it's clear by that evidence/argument that kaag (if town) doesn't think it could be egg/smith either. Which means he should be driving the wagon on YA for today. And just to be super clear: I'm 100% willing to listen on YA, and potentially solve the other half during lylo part deux.

[mhsmith0]

Well, it's clear by that evidence/argument that kaag (if town) doesn't think it could be egg/smith either.

You are practically clear: if you were scum, you'd have simply gone along with YA/Eggman with me and won.

Yeah I consider myself clear as well. If I was wolf:

Kaag/MHS: could hammer even now
Ya/MHS: could have gotten egg lynched super easy by now given all the dead people who wolf read him and kaags anti egg stance
Egg/MHS: probably could have gotten ya lynched by now, and that aggressive defense I used on d1 was super risky for partners, and kaags "it can't be kaag/egg" case applies to me too

I'd consider myself lock clear for not partner with kaag or ya, and it strains imagination (IMO) to see me as eggs partner (and for the record, I would 100% not have enabled or encouraged his relatively lazy play style if I was a buddy... MAYBE in a regular game, but a newbie game is for learning, not slacking).

[mhsmith0]

Hello, all. I'm going to try and help out. I'd appreciate it if somebody lined out the main arguments though. Thanks in advance.

Summer: mech clear, non cc'd doc
Me: everyone reads as town for a number of reasons
Kaag/ya/you: two of the three are wolves. Various arguments have been made as to why one combination is more or less plausible than others.

[mhsmith0]

Yawn.

And that didn't raise any suspicions???!!!

We're in a situation where 2/3 inside ya/kaag/you are wolves. To the extent no one thinks I'm wolf (FYI I'm firelords replacement), that means that votes inside those three are essentially meaningless wrt ending the game. So I'm not sure how much that particular act should be read into. Then again, I'm open to arguments. I'm feeling like wolf team is kaag/ya but am by no means exonerating you. I'm inclined to lynch inside kaag/ya today, but I want to see what you have to say before solidifying that perspective.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler: it didn't. I actually voted aero/Thor. I was leaning against the utl/Radja lynch by then (though not super strongly; I liked the utl/summer fight as town-town but iirc didn't think the overall case was crazy or anything). Ya quick hammered before EOD: had he not done so I might have pushed harder against it. At the least I'd have tried to get more out of Thor. Or possibly tried to swing it back to ya or ircher. It's been long enough I don't remember super well but that's where I think I was.

[mhsmith0]

Depends on definition of "few".
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7749119
Is where I moved to kaag (based on an admitted misread of him). The move to aero happened later on. And there was a YA vote in there too, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7753707

[mhsmith0]

Fair enough.

[mhsmith0]

Well, let us know if you're still there when you've finished the rest.
Also, I'm curious why you think a ya-kaag team is non plausible. Obviously MHS-kaag has been disproven since the two of us could have hammered you or YA even now.

[mhsmith0]

I definitely don't want to spoil you at this point, would be no fun at all

Ps @summer: I'm actually finding this interesting. If nothing else it's getting a fresh look at the game state, even if his conclusions about me are (currently) wrong.

[mhsmith0]

in fairness, given some of the issues with game pace and replacements, I actually wouldn't mind lynching jackal

That said, specific examples of

smith lays the seeds and wait for someone else to grow them, then turns back and ask that person to elaborate on the case. He uses this systematically in order to lynch one townie and then come back on the other with FoS over that mislynch.

would be helpful. I mean, you've suggested that you're still on D1 (I don't even know if you've reached Thor yet), so I don't know how you would have a good sense of how I've behaved after any given mislynch.

[mhsmith0]

PS no rush on those examples. Feel free to finish your read through first. No more spoilers (unless I feel like it anyway)

[mhsmith0]

Yeah d2 was weird. Ircher pinged me incredibly hard that day, and I was pretty worried about a potentially drifting town. Iirc around that time I was also reading egg as a pr (the whole "I'm totally vt guys" bit seeming like pr cover). Obviously I was 0:2 on my ircher and egg reads; if I knew egg was not actually a town pr (or picked up that shannon was) I might have been persuaded to just let it be egg instead.

[mhsmith0]

if I knew egg was not actually a town pr (or picked up that shannon was) I might have been persuaded to just let it be egg instead.

Really?? So how come you decided to shoot her then?

The answer is one of the following:

1) I town, and didn't actually shoot her, and the mental process I'm representing is ACTUALLY WHAT HAPPENED
2) I'm a wolf and I'm totally lying out my ass and knew all along the truth
3) I'm a wolf and my partner figured it out

Here's which one it is:

Spoiler: the answer

its the first one

Dropping the ball on YA on day 2 was a fuckup. Ircher seemed wolfier, and I pursued that instead. Clearly given irchers flip I was wrong to do so. Ya needed more pressure and attention that day.

[mhsmith0]

Dropping the ball on YA on day 2 was a fuckup. Ircher seemed wolfier, and I pursued that instead. Clearly given irchers flip I was wrong to do so. Ya needed more pressure and attention that day.

Did he? Final answer?? But you've just said that you would've let Egg eat the rope instead. You could not have such short memory.

MIGHT HAVE. "Might" is not the same as "would". And "pressure and attention" is different than "we definitely would have lynched YA". If I didn't think egg was super slow playing a pr, I MIGHT have been more ok with his lynch (which I do think would likely have happened if I'd been less aggressive about pushing the ircher lynch that day). I MIGHT have put more effort into questioning everyone else. I MIGHT have done a lot of things.

Honestly, I'm not actually sure what you're trying to argue here. You're creating a contradiction where I really don't see one.

[mhsmith0]

Well, we will soon know if it was a ya/egg team after all. I am NOT voting at this time.

[mhsmith0]

Ps It's possible. Frankly, the clear preference for lynching egg earlier today made me more suspicious of a ya/kaag team. Like I said earlier, it's difficult.

[mhsmith0]

PPs if it really is a ya/egg team, and I've been wrong all along, I sincerely apologize for not doing a better job this game.

[mhsmith0]

I can provide quotes and references to my wolf game

Spoiler: my wolf game

its shitty

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... alad-Mafia
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... Princesses

Two games, two d2 lynches (the latter as a sub coming in on d2 no less), two town wins (close results thanks to my buddies, as well as town dysfunction, not me). Other than turbos, that's my wolf game record.

My completed town game, btw, was a wolf team sweep:
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... 14&t=52035

Though at least in the latter I got killed on n2 instead of the jk, so that was nice.

Ps I really, REALLY wish my wolf game was as good as you describe. Because what you'll see in those games is something much different. Those were high level games, but it was SUPER clear I didn't belong in that crowd. I got DESTROYED in those games.

[mhsmith0]

LOL, first time I think I've ever been happy to have an upset stomach.

None of your points undo Eggman on D2 Almost.

What

does

is that both smith and Summer had been on the verge of voting me, but you made a case on smith. You wouldn't do that as scum. The fact they can't see this means one is scum, one is newb. And Summer is confirmed, so...

VOTE: YawningAngel

Kaag/egg remains a possibility in my book, fwiw. He could totally do that as your buddy. It argues against ya/egg though, unless a50 was playing an awesome wolf game there. Tip of the cap if so. If I'm to lose, I'd rather blame it on really good play from the other team than my own ineptness.

[mhsmith0]

smith, wasn't you who said they got to the top 20 list of players on another site a while ago? Or am I confusing you with someone else?

Someone else. I have three completed non turbo games to my name. I just linked them. I think I have some promise, but there's a common thread in my three straight losses

[mhsmith0]

If I'm to lose, I'd rather blame it on really good play from the other team than my own ineptness.

Vote YAWN and you still won't lose. Not today at the very least.

It might be kaag and you though. I see the board as two wolves in three players. If it's ya/a50 we've lost. If it's not, then on to day three, and suddenly it gets a LOT more interesting (hint: I'm conf!town if kaag flips wolf since we could have EASILY hammered you or ya by now).

[mhsmith0]

And playing conf!town interrogator against you and YA could be a lot of fun.

[mhsmith0]

Well, we will soon know if it was a ya/egg team after all. I am NOT voting at this time.

I know that. You must wait for YA to come online to do that quick double on KAAG. He's asleep right now bc it's well after midnight (2:30 am??).

GG all, and special congrats to you smith. I know you were the director behind the scenes, but -also- YA did well playing the VI (much close to KT, but not identical. KT does it better).

Wait a god damn minute... How the HELL do you know that????????????

[mhsmith0]

He's english? Did he say that? He's posted at this hour before iirc.

[mhsmith0]

Kaag is english, but it don't recall that from YA.

[mhsmith0]

I mean, it's half five in the morning here, I'm allowed to sleep

Ok I see this one. So it's not a wolf chat slip. You super scared me there a50.

[mhsmith0]

Ps we are now down to FOUR possible wolf teams as a50 and I could have hammered kaag there. As it stands, my ONLY possible partner is ya. And if you think it's ya/me, then my play so far today has been utterly bizarre, since egg was a super easy target for scum!mhs to push.

[mhsmith0]

You just weren't paying much attention to the main thread. You were more concerned with your private chat in the Mafia QT.
check his 1046 and subsequent few posts.

Now you're just super reaching. If it's you and YA, well done on lylo misdirection. If it's not, you're earned yourself some bad feelings heading into the final challenge.

[mhsmith0]

Again, stop trying to manipulate me. You've already won thanks to Summer's vote on KAAG. ALL you need to do is sit tight, wait for YA to come online, then do the wham!

I'd say the same to you, but I'd agree that you're likelier wolf buddies with kaag than YA at this point.

Of course, it could also be a ya/kaag team, in which case who knows how things will go.

[mhsmith0]

Ps if you're actually town, your read on me was horrific. The bit on thors death was especially bad. He was pretty aggressively pushing people OTHER THAN me. So either I wifomed it up (leaving buddy YA to really hold the bag), or (using your logic) I'm LESS implicated by that kill than most others.

Pps Thor explicitly said he wasn't bothering to read the earlier stuff. So he gave ZERO weight to aeros reads (unless he was bs'ing).

Ppps implying I "sat aside" is ridiculous. The closest you can come to a case there is EOD1, and I was planning to make an impact before SOMEONE quick hammered. Of course you say you think we're wolf buddies so it all hangs together for you. Or you can admit your case is way weaker than how you're selling it.

[mhsmith0]

BTW, we probably should hydra together sometime. I would very much like to know what goes into your head dragging the days like you do. To me it's super boring (I prefer Bliz games with Days of 72 hours)..

That might be fun; I haven't ever hydra'd before, so it'd be interesting. FWIW, I actually tend more towards 72 ish hour days (I started on playdip, where it's always 3-4 days), which gives enough time to go back and read (MU does 36 hours which is just way too fast, especially with some super high volume posters). 2 week days has a clear ebb and flow, but also leads to seemingly inevitable down time and dead periods.

PS FWIW, I was actually trying NOT to needlessly drag day 2 (and possibly erred too far in that direction). I'll accept some blame for day 3 dragging... but it's a "one wrong vote and game over" situation. So I pushed, questioned, and engaged, instead of quick voting and possibly killing the town.

PPS If you want to really amuse yourself... http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post291151
from "wow i somehow got a ML of crunkus" to "oh shit I'm dead" in like 2 hours

[mhsmith0]

If I'm to lose, I'd rather blame it on really good play from the other team than my own ineptness.

Vote YAWN and you still won't lose. Not today at the very least.

There is ZERO reason why I would want to do this given Summer's KAAG vote. And I think you already know what I mean. Which makes me seriously wonder why you'd even ask for me to do this.

[mhsmith0]

btw, A50, as long as we're waiting to see what happens from YA, can you tell the board whether there are KAAG specific things you find non-wolf, or is this a pure "MHS is wolf" thing? If KAAG is wolf, and gets lynched, and it's you, me, and YA, it'll go a lot better for you if you start answering questions now instead of later. Because it seems like you fixated on YA/MHS wolf team awfully easily... almost as if you didn't really bother to read KAAG and think through his alignment. Which really makes me wonder why you approached things that way.

[mhsmith0]

PS Obviously never mind if you and YA quick hammer ftw. If so, well played to hide that team. If not... we will have words. A lot of words. And a grindingly, agonizingly, horrifically, slow pace on D4. Just the way you like it
(actually I doubt it'll really be that slow on D4. But it won't be a super quick vote by me either).

[mhsmith0]

And I think you already know what I mean.

No, I don't. Honest! You do want to lynch scum, right?

If you're not a wolf, we will have words over this. The answer should be super obvious.

[mhsmith0]

If it's a50/ya, then we're just waiting for ya to show up and end the game (if summer let it hang this long she isn't switching). If it's not a50/ya, then kaag is a wolf.

I really don't think it's a50/ya, so...
VOTE: Kaag

A50, if it's ya and you, you win, and you can hammer and put this game out of its misery. If it's not, then it MUST be kaag or me. And it's not me, your wacky theories aside.

[mhsmith0]

Guess we were right then. Solid game kaag. You did really well. I'll happily play with you again.

[mhsmith0]

Ps a50: NOW do you believe me? You will have a LOT of questions to answer on d4 for your d3 conduct. You know this. The more you say now, the better.

[mhsmith0]

Obligatory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcGQpjCztgA


This is my second ever legit wolf catch, and my first outside a turbo. I am super happy about this. Especially since it was NOT easy or obvious. At all. I fought hard to lynch ircher and was wrong. Fighting hard for this and being wrong again would have SUCKED. If nothing else I won't have to apologize to town post game for screwing it all up. One more lynch and we can take it home. Now where is my coin...

Ps kaag, you really did play really well. You just played a better wolf game than you did a town game.

[mhsmith0]

twilight thoughts: YA isn't totally out of the woods yet, but A50's train wreck puts him in higher suspicion. I will need to spend time re-reading KAAG to see if I can grab anything truly incriminating on his buddy.

A50: please give me a few links to games where you subbed in, preferably at least one as town and one as wolf. Not ASAP but this WILL be coming up on D4.

PS @Summer: we're a "pick one from two" away from winning. And I have NEVER won a "real" (non turbo) forum mafia game (0-3 and counting ). I am super excited. Losing really sucks. No longer losing would be awesome.

[mhsmith0]

'm not even clear on why Scum!KAAG would hammer himself

Self-hammering denies the town information and protects the partner. Like, that's wolf play 101. Once you're doomed, self-hammer. It's even explicitly covered in the IC guide
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... _a_good_IC

Of course, if you're scum then feel free to self-vote/self-hammer. Self-voting/self-hammering as scum denies the town information and IS playing toward your win condition by confusing the remaining townies and allowing your partner to hide in the confusion.

At any rate, I won't be quick voting. But it is certainly true that you chose not to seriously consider the possibility of scum!KAAG, and aggressively argued that it MUST be either YA/MHS or KAAG/A50. I'm not deciding anything right now, but you're the current favorite for getting lynched D4.

[mhsmith0]

ass-kicked and I giggled :p

He really did play well though. So it's more of us patting ourselves on the back for a job well done (I know I am ) than it is that he did poorly or deserved to get lynched or lose.

[mhsmith0]

If you want the final word here: TAKE IT ON FAITH. Just lynch YA on D4 and see how it goes. From there on I promise you will be able to tell whether you can trust me for the next 100 games or never again. I will repeat this part: you will KNOW whether you can trust me on ANY GIVEN GAME we ever get to play together from now on, or to NOT trust me ever again.

I will consider doing so. I truly will. But I won't take it on blind faith. Reason will rule the day, or at least that's the plan. And if not there's always the coin option

At any rate, we will all have plenty of time to parse KAAG's production and argue if or how he implicated either of you through his actions. YA has been promising a sexy case on KAAG-Egg, so we'll have that to look forward to on D4 as well.

[mhsmith0]

50 made himself look pretty scummy to me.
His posts just made him and kaag look more and more scummy as a team I think

It seems that way. But YA and his issues don't get a free pass either. It'll be annoying if his slot has to sub as well.

[mhsmith0]

now that is entirely possible. also possible that he totally blew it and went deep into conf!bias mode.

on the YA side, the KAAG-YA fight earlier in D3 felt kind of fake at the time. I'll re-read it to see if I still think that way. It felt faker from KAAG than YA though so it could have just been him messing with YA. That's another priority item on the list.

PS Isn't this fun?

[mhsmith0]

Let me think for a little bit. Not necessarily today even.. we can wait for the next day phase.. but -maybe- I will figure out a way to make you vote YA beyond a shred of doubt. For now, I accept that you don't know which of us is scum and which is town. But you may still want to take a quick look at my finished games and see how I generally play.. maybe.. until I think of the -hopefully- conclusive evidence.

Right now, I think that's the best you can do after a D3 that was terrible for town and kind of blatant for wolf. I'm certainly leaning your way, but I'm not fully convinced yet. I try and re-evaluate every day (part of why I nabbed KAAG d3), and will do so on D4.

I hope you come up with a great case. I hope YA does too. This has overall been a pretty reasonably well-played game (with a few down notes and dead periods, I'll admit), and I hope the ending, however it goes down, reflects the same.

/ninjad: I also think it's A50, but YA doesn't deserve a pass. He's done some wolfy stuff this game too.

[mhsmith0]

Part of it is YA. Part of it is that town can simply be utterly, horribly, completely wrong. Also, it was really bizarre play if it was a KAAG-A50 team. Why even bother going after me when going after YA was probably pretty lynchable? Maybe it was for the pride of a sweep, that's a plausible motive. I'm just trying to figure out what he could have been thinking, and I'm not quite able to rule out a town motive just yet. But yeah, put a gun to my head and ask me to pick who's the wolf, and I'd say A50.

[mhsmith0]

btw, KAAG, who do you think is the wolfiest and why? Screw the win condition, help the town out!

[mhsmith0]

Summer.

There's an evil glint in her Avatar's eye...I'd watch her closely.

FWIW, now that I'm conf!town I can confess that back in D1 I actually intentionally tried to set Summer and UTL against each other right before their fight. Wanted to see what would happen, since I was kind of wolf-reading them both at the time (and didn't want ALL of the content to be coming from me directly ). Picking at that one might have been a useful AtE point against me if you and your buddy had noticed. I certainly wasn't going to draw attention to it though

[mhsmith0]

Speaking of humorous posts, this was the best one I can recall from a game I've read:

http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... +5#p824156

Crunkus is like the undisputed veteran in this game, right? So:

Crunkus wrote:
Reaction tests can work.

It is an over-used tactic. Most of the time, they won't and it's all about execution.

It's more often used, by town more often than by scum, to make something that you really didn't know where it was going to go sound like it had more intent and meaning behind it.

Most of the reactions that catch scum tend to be realized after the fact though, not through deliberate trapping. You do a bunch of stuff that cultivates people stepping in it and hope that they do and someone will realize it and be able to successfully articulate it.

I used a reaction test in Vampires V Werewolf on Doc Psycho and caught him as a vampire once. I think I also lied about something on my role message (after clearing it with the GM, Ugluk) in I think the first game of Resistance and caught a bad guy that way. But even when you do with it with intent...it's most often not going to work. You have to get lucky...and mostly you trick yourself into thinking a result means something it doesn't because you pre-built in this bias of expectation.

lecrae wrote:
Right now, I just see that reaction testing is a viable option for people in certain situations when passing the potato, and I might end up using it if I don't have a good scumread

lecrae: So I think I'm going to try to cross the mountains at Dead Man's Pass.
Grizzled Mountain Man: Dead Man's Pass, eh? It can be crossed. Plenty of people try, most don't make it out alive between the bears, the snow, the rocks, and the Frost Giants. Most folks who try are fools. Easier to just drive around Route 5. I managed to traverse Dead Man's Pass once, though even when you do it right you've gotta get lucky, and plenty of experienced climbers get lost up there.
lecrae: Right now I just see that Dead Man's Pass is a viable option, and I might end up going up there.


lecrae, your takeaway is technically correct. But just take Route 5, dude.

[mhsmith0]

Also, as long as we're in the "talking about stuff other than solving the game phase"... sorry for being an asshole to you and forcing you out of the game, UTL. I really didn't mean to do that

[mhsmith0]

back to game solving!

And I think you already know what I mean.

No, I don't. Honest! You do want to lynch scum, right?

If you're not a wolf, we will have words over this. The answer should be super obvious.

@A50: did you REALLY not understand what I meant here:

If I'm to lose, I'd rather blame it on really good play from the other team than my own ineptness.

Vote YAWN and you still won't lose. Not today at the very least.

There is ZERO reason why I would want to do this given Summer's KAAG vote. And I think you already know what I mean. Which makes me seriously wonder why you'd even ask for me to do this.

The answer really was super obvious. I want you to either cop to BS'ing here and explain yourself, or double down on this.

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith I wouldn't worry too much about it! I am sure she's probably is over it now
and yea when I look back I probably should have claimed BP because then we would have had a better chance at this point!

For future reference you should have just claimed BP/doc and if CC'd (which was unlikely) done a "if I was doc I would have protected __, __" bit. With a tracker dead, there had to be a doc/bp on the board, and it didn't matter THAT much which of the two it was at that point. What mattered was there was a power role and whether anyone CC'd. Also, at any rate you won't likely get two night saves, so it's a situation where we lynch correctly tomorrow or we lose. What you claimed ultimately doesn't really change that situation, unfortunately.

As far as UTL goes, hopefully she's not upset. Sometimes people get upset and stay upset. I don't know her well enough to know how she'll be thinking of it weeks afterwards. My hope is she isn't super pissed... but if she is I understand. It's something I'm a bit sensitive to, since I've seen/read games where things have gotten really out of hand.

That said, at the least I can point to this game in the future as "SEE! Trying to dig my way out of a situation where I've really pissed someone off is NOT something I only do as wolf" sort of thing (since I'm now 2:2 in doing that as wolf).

[mhsmith0]

I swear to God I didn't and still don't. What does/did Summer's vote on KAAG had to do with you hammering scum!YA??

This is troubling, but I'll explain it anyway.

Summer voted KAAG and by all signs wasn't going to move her vote (and certainly not in enough time to head off YA showing up). Because a known townie voted KAAG, either she was correct (and he was a wolf) or the two wolves could hammer for the win. Literally,

THE GAME IS OVER IF SHE IS WRONG

.

By voting KAAG, she enabled any of the non-KAAG potential wolf teams:
A50/YA
A50/MHS
MHS/YA

to win. Also, if YA was wolf, then UNLESS YA was KAAG's wolf buddy, then YA and his buddy would hammer for the win.

Now let's say that you and I vote YA in that spot (you were already there, so we're talking about me joining you). With vote on the board of Summer on KAAG and us on YA, then UNLESS the wolf team is exactly YA/KAAG, the wolf team has the easy option to hammer for the win (and if that is the wolf team, then we might as well just lynch KAAG first anyway). To wit:

A50/MHS: have the option of quick hammering KAAG
A50/YA: have the option of quick hammering KAAG
MHS/YA: have the option of quick hammering KAAG
A50/KAAG: A50 has the option of quick hammering YA once I voted for YA
MHS/KAAG: MHS has the option of quick hammering YA once A50 voted for YA (which was already on the board anyway, which makes your convincing me to vote there moot)

KAAG/YA: the ONLY possible combination that does not have the option to quick hammer for the win, since all votes (except YA's) are on wolves. And if it's this team, then there's no actual gain for the town from hammering YA first (and in fact, since you had convinced yourself it was me instead of KAAG, lynching YA first would just delay the town's loss until the final three since KAAG had you pocketed, for reasons that frankly I still fail to understand).


Like I said, this was SUPER obvious. And I'm deeply concerned you put enough thought into the conspiracy theory of evil genius MHS manipulating everything all game long, but not enough thought to figure out a really easy logic puzzle.

[mhsmith0]

skimming KAAG: day 1 he threw a lot of shade on Ryu/Egg, but never quite got to the point of voting. OTOH, he held YA as a null read for a really long time too. Both are suspicious interactions.

He DID threaten to hammer Egg, but never actually did. And the intent post was squishy enough that it was highly plausible someone would step in and push a different direction first.

wrt Egg, day 2 seems plausible as well; distancing behavior very much in range.

PS for kicks:

One thing I will suggest is that Eggman is the sort of partner I would bus mercilessly as scum, so I'm not discounting anybody, even those who've pushed him hard.

Hmm...

PPS I actually temporarily forgot KAAG dumped a vote on YA, FWIW. But since I was a lot more certain of KAAG being scum than I was of YA (again, YOU may have been certain on YA, but I wasn't even slightly sure of YA, especially since you basically hard sold the idea that it was YA/MHS or KAAG/A50, and I KNEW that it wasn't YA/MHS), there was no reason at all for me to hammer there. Especially since even if I was correct (which again I wasn't sure of), if you were town you'd just quick-hammer me tomorrow. I mean, you made it super clear that you were going to do this. So why accept a very likely D4 loss just in order to hammer my weaker wolf-read? "I don't think it can be YA-Egg, therefore it must be KAAG" was a huge selling point on the KAAG lynch, and I never really went away from KAAG as my #1 wolf read. By that point I was really strong on KAAG as wolf and basically around 50-50 between you and YA... so why WOULDN'T I vote KAAG there?

And "hey everyone MHS is the scum, MHS you need to hammer YA but even doing so won't change the fact that you're scum" was the exact opposite of a compelling argument. It was almost like you were trying to get me to panic into voting YA or something. Which, again, I saw zero need to do.

[mhsmith0]

Ultimately, the down side of you hard-selling the idea that I must be wolf and KAAG must not is that you had zero influence with me, frankly regardless of my alignment.

For kicks, game theory it out:

If I'm wolf and YA's partner:
If I vote YA, I'm getting quick-voted on D4. I lose.

If I'm wolf and NOT YA's partner:
If I vote YA, I win. Obviously this wasn't how it went down.

If I'm town and YA is town:
If I vote YA, I lose.

If I'm town and YA is wolf, along side KAAG:
If I vote YA, I'm getting quick-voted on D4. I lose.

If I'm town and YA is wolf, along side A50:
If I vote YA, I'm getting quick-voted by A50 on D4, and it's all up to town!KAAG. Plausible win but far from certain.

So basically the only way that town!MHS would have any motivation to vote YA there is if I also wolf-read A50. But I didn't. I wolf-read KAAG, in substantial part because I didn't find YA/A50 team a credible possibility.. Although I'll admit that the paranoid part of my mind was wondering if your performance on D3 was really designed to hide a YA-A50 team... which was why I did the whole "well done if you're wolf team" bit, since I was PRETTY sure about KAAG being wolf but not 100% sure.

[mhsmith0]

PS FWIW, a LOT of your case, when you slice out the conspiracy theory angles, really boiled down to "he's aggressively wolf-hunting, therefore he must be a wolf, therefore we should lynch him". As either alignment, I would strongly advise you not to try that one in the future.

PPS There was a point you quoted KAAG town-reading me and basically said "WTF". If you actually are town, that might have been a good reason to suspect him. If you aren't town, that still might have been a good reason to pretend to suspect him.

[mhsmith0]

Thanks! I'll do my best, that's for sure. I'll try not to let you down... and if I do, my apologies in advance. No matter what, no wolf team sweep, which is a better fate for you than I got in my first game

[mhsmith0]

smith, how stupid do you think I am (aside from the fact I introduced you with a strong evidence by me concluding it was you + YA, I mean)

That depends...




Like I said, I'm going to think on it. I won't be quick voting. But it does hold together as a wolf team looking for the sweep, or looking to protect the "deep wolf" and avoid a coin toss final three. It may also hold together as a terrible town performance. "I don't know" is the best you can get right now. You haven't earned "I believe you".

[mhsmith0]

Oh, I will definitely re-read, and do my best to think it all through. Like I said, I'm not quick voting, and YA has his own issues to account for. You're in the "lead"... but it's not over.

[mhsmith0]

Questions for YA and A50 to mull over during night time:

1) What in this game have you done (or your predecessor done) that is clearly town and/or not wolf?
2) What in this game has the other guy done that is clearly wolf and/or not town?
3) How does a KAAG/you team not make sense?
4) How does a KAAG/the other guy team make sense?

I'll probably ask more questions D4, but I think those are the key points to consider.

[mhsmith0]

*rubs hands together gleefully*

More seriously, as the conf!town here I want to set some ground rules for today's proceedings. At this point, there's a pretty decent amount of evidence on both of your slots as being wolves, but obviously it actually is only one of you. With that in mind, I'd like you to focus on three things:

1) What in this game have you done (or your predecessor done) that is clearly town and/or not wolf?
2) How does a KAAG/you team not make sense?
3) How does a KAAG/the other guy team particularly make sense?

If you want to discuss what the other slot has done that's wolfy, that's OK, but I want discussion to be focused on those three items, at least in the early day. As I've said before, I don't plan on quick voting, but I don't see the use in making everyone wait two weeks either. So I'll vote when I'm ready to make a final decision.

PS This game was my first (non-turbo) LYLO ever, and now it's my first three person LYLO.

PPS FWIW, I was actually hoping that Summer was bullshitting and was actually BP and we'd both survive to see the final day. Alas.

[mhsmith0]

Egg (A50's predecessor) and YA (your predecessor) voted each other yesterday. If KAAG and I were teammates, we could have hammered. There was ALSO a period yesterday when both A50 and KAAG voted YA (your predeccesor), when again if I was KAAG's teammate I could have hammered.

[mhsmith0]

I'd suggest triple ISO'ing KAAG, Egg and YA for most of the game, and then ISO'ing KAAG and A50 starting when he came in (YA basically was absent EOD3). Reading the whole thread will give you a better sense of the context of the whole game, but that's probably a good starting point for a quick entry, and then after that you can go back and read

PS Given that I'm conf!town, you should probably vote A50 and A50 should probably vote you. It's clearly one or the other, and the question is which. I'd recommend verifying the story I just told you first, of course, but once you've verified that, then it MUST be A50 (from your perspective, if you're town - and vice versa from his).

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, I was gonna say I'll wait to verify the conf town thing first, haha. That'd be an embarrassing way to lose.

Not gonna lie, feeling very lazy at the moment. I will look into things soon-ish though.

Oh yeah that would be the worst. FWIW finishing the game up isn't ASAP, but I really don't want this thing to push too far into D4 either. Been what... like seven weeks so far? Definitely ready to get to an ending (hopefully the good kind though)

PS If you're a wolf you could always self vote. That'd be cool

[mhsmith0]

*LOL*

What was the first thing (or maybe second) I said when I replaced in??

First post:

...I'd appreciate it if somebody lined out the main arguments though. Thanks in advance.

Second post (to KAAG):

...Why are you not voting Summer instead?

One of those?

[mhsmith0]

Yep. All down to me. Both the power and the pressure. Decisions, decisions...

PS FWIW I've basically stayed away from this thread for the last week (i.e. the span of N3), since I was playing with the idea that Summer might have been cleverly playing the part of BP and I might not see D4 anyway. In related news, my PR reading abilities are AWESOME

[mhsmith0]

Nope. I meant I said I thought I'd be replacing into a scum slot before I read my role PM, and was sure Summer was my partner too.

Ok. And the relevance of that is?

/ninja'd: there's a pretty reasonable chance you still don't think they're town though

Anyway, I think it may be helpful to focus on kaag/egg and kaag/ya and how one combination especially does or doesn't make sense. Convincing me it has to be kaag/ya and can't be kaag/egg is probably your only real path to victory.

@clumsy: and the reverse is true for you, fwiw. Mining kaag and convincing me it has to be kaag and egg is your likeliest path to victory as well. I'll be focusing on that analysis as well, unless something else catches my eye.

[mhsmith0]

I will hammer before deadline!

Note: i am hyper-active: this will give 24 hours at least.

I'd so prefer Radja.

But you + YA are not on board.

So...anything better than no lynch.

If mod extends deadline due to Aero or GreenNope -> Shannon replace, my 24-hour intent will be void. To be clear: only if MOD extends, not player request.

So... this is kind of interesting. Late D1, Egg is L-1, KAAG very publicly threatens to hammer. But he does it in kind of an odd way. Like, I can't quite tell if he's serious about the hammer, or if he's trying to soft push the idea that the lynch is non-optimal, and influence the board towards a counter-lynch. It's a very dangerous game to play with a buddy, one which easily could have gone badly (which was also why I didn't think YA-Egg made any sense, given that YA pushed even harder on Egg).

More re-reading ahead. I'd REALLY like your guys thoughts on things. I know that I'm going to be the voter, and that right now you're both essentially wolves (you know the answer, and your only interest is getting the other guy lynched). But it's still something that I think is a good learning experience potentially for all three of us. LYLO happens, after all.

PS FWIW, in my general reading/skimming of the thread I feel like the Egg slot is on its own wolfier, but a decent amount of the KAAG-related stuff (I think) points more towards YA. Which makes things kind of difficult. Then again, if it was easy it wouldn't be fun to actually figure it out

PPS I'll also note that the KAAG self-hammer is just full of WIFOM. It's unclear if he was protecting against the possibility that A50 would swing his vote and get town points for it, or if he was protecting against the possibility that A50 was locked into his position and any flipping would inherently look bad. That one in particular I'm inclined not to think too deeply on, FWIW.

[mhsmith0]

Another KAAG note: he consistently held Egg in the "wolfy but not wolfiest" zone, and consistently had YA in or around the null zone. Either one is very plausible treatment of a buddy.

[mhsmith0]

SIW has done all of that. You will note that not half a page ago I was asked to justify my negative view on her and pretty much came up with fuckall. I think Eggman, while arguably a weak lynch, is still our best shot. The case for Radja, while better examined tomorrow, is still more compelling than the case for SIW. As a bonus, if you suspect a scum pairing of SIW and UTL/Radja, then we get substantial value out of lynching Radja anyway, a spot most people read as scummier. Obviously don't hammer yet (

for anyone who is in doubt about protocol here, do not hammer until near the deadline and having announced intent to do so well in advance

), but consider the lynches that are on the table and already have backing.

This is probably the wolfiest thing YA ever did, since not long after this he went ahead and quick hammered Radja. (large text mine)

[mhsmith0]

KAAG's 1123 is interesting. Buried in there is the note about Egg using the "hooker" reference. That's a very plausible scum-chat slip; I don't know how Egg would have known to use that nomenclature (for roleblocker) if he was a total newb.

[mhsmith0]

looking at YA's meta, as found by KAAG:

https://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/arch ... 15636.html
he really lurked like crazy as a wolf.

http://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/showt ... -Deception
ditto

https://forums.heroesofnewerth.com/arch ... 80169.html
3p, a lot more active, more resembling this game

OTOH, this could easily have been something KAAG found explicitly for this purpose. Around and around we go...

[mhsmith0]

Step 1: MHS wolf reads Ircher (mislynch bait) and drives the mislynch
Step 2: MHS wolf reads KAAG (the deep wolf) and drives the correct lynch

So basically, what you have is MHS driving the town right off the cliff... and then hard landing on a narrow dirt ramp that slopes down the cliff. In icy conditions. With the ramp about to split two ways, one to certain death, the other to salvation. Which path will he choose? Stay tuned, gentle readers

[mhsmith0]

Yeah the game state is kind of weird. I'm doing more reading than writing, trying to figure out which slot has been wolfier, who KAAG's actions implicate more, etc. I'll try to have something interesting to say soon, but it may well be until the weekend before it happens. That said, if you guys want to push your cases, I think that's a pretty useful exercise for practice/learning etc.

Currently my lean remains on A50. But it's not firm. A lot more reading and thinking still to come. I REALLY want to get it right. First ever time in the judgement seat, but no pressure or anything

[mhsmith0]

The whole thing is hilarious. My performance has been a total mix of good and terrible

Win or lose... I'd rather win. Convince me that my path to victory is with you,

[mhsmith0]

Ps I'm actually a bit busy currently, probably won't have time for another full read through until tonight at earliest. But it's a great chance to get in thread where you think a case can be made for your towninss or a50's wolfiness (and vice versa for him).

[mhsmith0]

A50: please give me a few links to games where you subbed in, preferably at least one as town and one as wolf. Not ASAP but this WILL be coming up on D4.

Unfortunately that would be IMPOSSIBLE. I've only subbed in in 3 games (including this game), and I've never subbed in as scum. On one I've subbed in early enough (D1) so it's on my list (on my wiki page.. I think it's #7.. the one modded by pisskop). The other I subbed in during N2 and I only posted ONCE to place the hammer on the last scum, so I don't even have it on the list.

I only sub-in when I'm board (not much going on on ongoing games or I'm waiting on queues for new games to start) and I never sub-out either.

If you want the final word here: TAKE IT ON FAITH. Just lynch YA on D4 and see how it goes. From there on I promise you will be able to tell whether you can trust me for the next 100 games or never again. I will repeat this part: you will KNOW whether you can trust me on ANY GIVEN GAME we ever get to play together from now on, or to NOT trust me ever again.

Why would this impact my ability to trust you? If you're a wolf here then you could be town next time, and if you're town here you could be a wolf next time.

[mhsmith0]

Oh, nvm that part by now.

So basically it's a failed AtE? Good to know, that makes things a bit easier on my end

[mhsmith0]

Just to make sure, I'm thinking at this point that I'm just going to be the game solver and you guys would rather not dig through the game and really figure that out. Is that right? If not let me know. If so I'll vote some time this weekend.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I kinda figured that'd be the case. It's good practice though. Clumsy, Iirc you're new and have yet to flip wolf. Arguing a case when you already know the answer will be helpful for when you have to bs your way through a whole game as wolf.

I mean, right now you're essentially both wolves, and neither of you has much practice at wolfing (I think), so I'd say it's a fun opportunity to learn and grow. I'll probably vote tomorrow night, so it's a potentially tight deadline.

Ps the key here is kaag. Both of your slots did Wolfy things. Who did kaag implicate the most, and whose slot interacted the Wolfy-est with kaag. Focus your analysis there. Kaag was plausibly distancing egg, and was plausibly null zoning and white knighting YA. Which seems more suspicious? And why?

[mhsmith0]

I'm on pacific time right now. A good % of my free time is evenings and weekends though.

[mhsmith0]

Various notable posts from the game (I've been working on it on and off for a while now):

25Ryu: "my UTL vote was sort of RVS, sort of not"
77KAAG: distance-y post on Ryu
92Ryu: "KAAG really knows what he's doing"
98KAAG: YA in null zone, Ryu in distancing range
110YA: "I think trying to infer alignment ("make reads", if you will) on day one in this format is an absurdity"
173YA: town reading KAAG, with plausibly distancing comments
179KAAG: open to Ryu lynch, prefers a different one, pushing YA up towards town
195(and surrounding): YA non-commital about what he wants to do, "gut read" of KAAG as plausible wolf
224Egg: shade and vote on YA, " looks like he isn't very much talking about this game as opposed to mafia games overall", shade on HBG due to absenteeism
275Egg: possible role fishing in guise of "I'm a newb" and "game theory" question
282YA: more of a scum read on UTL and Egg... but also shows actual thought. This was less crappy than I thought at the time.
300KAAG: defending Egg, missing the point of what I meant wrt Egg forgetting Summer. likes YA's 282.
350YA: "I'm clueless newbie mislynch bait"
352YA challenging Egg's lack of heft behind wolf read/vote
353KAAG: mild chainsaw defense of Egg
365KAAG: moving YA to fence!town, "I have no issue with voting for Eggman" (right after calling Egg votes weak)
368YA: aggressive on Egg. towny-looking post.
371Egg: abandons YA vote. Continues in non-vote pattern for rest of D1. Super early VT claim.
373KAAG: throws shade on Egg, but also advances argument that it's just a "policy lynch" to vote on Egg
383Egg: prepping for a UTL vote
389YA: "can't imagine any scum player ever doing that" (on Egg)... still voting him though
445KAAG: defends the idea of an Egg lynch for information. notes YA as a town read
478YA: admits error.
484KAAG: willing to hammer Egg. The note possibly was an attempt to undermine the lynch effort.
498YA: angry over Thor's "hammer" of Egg
501Shannon: "I have a feeling that Egg/Ryu's performance is a result of lack of coaching or understanding. Which means if he's scum, he's not getting good advice through daytalk" - very much argues against KAAG as partner of Egg
548YA: "You seem to think that the fact that there was already sufficient backing for an Eggman lynch means that you hammering it would have made no further difference. This is simply not the case. Hammering early simply commits us to a course of action earlier - we aren't compensated for our reduced options in any meaningful sense. We can leave someone alive and use all of our time until the deadline with no consequences."
565KAAG: town reading YA, wants YA's biggest enemy lynched
614YA: hammers, citing "Thor's points about not dragging matters out are also plenty valid"
626YA: "Our IC laid out the case for doing this literally within the last 48 hours"
645YA: "All I can really say in my defence is that if I were scum I wouldn't play as if I had a death wish"
674Ircher: "If Radja is town, YA is guaranteed scum"
706KAAG: defending YA, but open to the idea of lynching him
711YA: "My guess is that scum liked the fact the game had a lot of inactivity and thought that Thor's style and aggression were likely to crack the game open. The obvious implication from this is that the status quo (I.E. who we suspect and are likely to lynch in the immediate future) suits the scum pretty well."
718 through 724KAAG: trying to make it clear that Thor read Ircher as wolfier than YA
731YA: attacking shannon's attack on KAAG
764KAAG: bringing back the YA discussion
766KAAG: "if you are scum and it was a blatant lie, what the hell was your partner doing?" (STRONGLY distancing himself from the idea of being YA's partner)
770YA: selling idea of a Egg/KAAG team
777YA: showing townie paranoia wrt SIW/MHS. wrt Egg, "No, I think he's just so worthless as a player and looked so likely to cop a lynch yesterday that I find it utterly implausible that he's survived without someone going to bat for him"
778KAAG: Egg case is essentially "policy lynch"
787Egg: "I propose that we lynch me on Day 3"... while voting for a player under suspicion (Ircher)
792Egg: "...I thought you guys would be more inclined to vote Ircher." (after proposing a self lynch)
848YA: pretty aggressively campaigning for the Egg lynch - why would he care so much if he knew it was a town-town battle?
893KAAG: pushes Egg to vote for YA
980YA: "I find the notion that Eggman is following direction from a scumbuddy utterly implausible."
996KAAG: "So who knows if he's even looking at the scum topic (if he's scum)? Let alone reading it or interacting. So I exclude nobody."
998KAAG: pushing YA against the Egg wagon
1108Egg: calls the RB "We can also confirm that there's no Hooker."... which is an interesting term for it (I've seen it called that way before)
"Who among us is most likely to be the BP? I'm gonna say Smith." (which may explain why no one ever shot at me)
1122Egg: definitely has a wolf read on KAAG, which is odd because he's not voting KAAG or pushing KAAG. Looks more distancing than anything else tbh.
…
1331, 1335A50: questions KAAG about town reading me… but doesn’t bother to consider this as potentially suspicious on KAAG’s part
1336A50: sees KAAG giving terrible advice, ALSO does not bother to consider this as plausibly AI
1429, 1435, 1443, 1499, various AtE stuff by A50



Thor's posts (most relevant because Thor was the ONLY player where wolf team made an active choice to kill him, as opposed to the [in retrospect] obvious PR kill of shannon )
505Thor: KAAG "appeared otherwise okay with just rolling over and lynching Eggman"
520called out YA's hypocrisy in voting for a "weak lynch"
525called out YA's behavior as nonsense
552attacked YA for "empty attacking" him
657..."In other news, I do find it awflly impressive that I was able to change Yawning Angel's position from "burn it with fire!" on a fake lulzhammer to "don't even need a claim!" for a real hammer."
684"I know you read my discussions about proper play Day 1 - no where in there did I remotely suggest a hammer without a claim was a good idea.
So...if you don't think I'd lie to the point of wanting to leap ahead with a shorter day, why did you overlook the, y'know, other thoughts I had about how to do it?"

KAAG's self-hammer: there's always WIFOM here... but why would he self-hammer with A50 as his partner? With YA not around, and two townies on KAAG, KAAG was a goner, and there was very clearly a path for A50 to eventually be convinced (or "convinced"). The problem is, it's heavily WIFOM, AND he may have simply felt that A50 could not "naturally" move away from his YA vote.


So here’s where I am. It’s plausible that it’s a KAAG-YA team, but I think the game state MORE suits a KAAG-Egg team. KAAG has kept Egg in the suspicious zone, but never quite at the point where he’d actually vote. The whole thing feels like he’s preparing for a potential Egg flip, and trying to make sure his position is survivable if/when that happens.

This also does a pretty good job of explaining what happened wrt YA on day 2. KAAG wants us thinking about what happened wrt the hammer, but when it doesn’t take (and people aren’t even really interested in chatting about it), he’s OK with letting it drop. That falls within a KAAG-YA team, potentially, but I think if they were a team he’d actually want that conversation resolved in a more meaningful way to protect against a flip.

Moreover, it’d be weird for him to be pushy to defend his buddy in that situation. If YA went down, it’d look really suspicious for KAAG to be YA’s defender there. So it looks more like a KAAG-Egg team, where Ircher became a perfectly acceptable substitute for YA in the “day 2 mislynch” category, as opposed to a KAAG-YA team, where essentially just walking away from that read really made sense.

And as far as A50 goes... hard defending his buddy by pushing against me actually makes a lot of sense. Overwhelm and confuse the town, force a ML to end the game (since on careful review, Egg looks as or more wolfy than YA). Or to give an example from a different game...
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... 20#p489036

Niakan is pulling exactly the same trick he tried in Crunkus's recent game when he comes in at day end to try and make the town his bitch. Creating an environment of panic and confusion after lurking for the rest of the game day. How is that trick still working? Lynch the bastard.

Also, there's basically an army of townies who've been screaming to hang the Egg/A50 slot. And... I can't really argue with them. It clearly COULD be YA, but YA has had townie looking moments at times, and Egg really does look like lurker wolf the more that I think about it. I look at Ryu/Egg/A50, and absolutely nothing A50 has done looks town at all.


So rather than waste everyone’s time even more, I’m just going to vote. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Hopefully I’m right (I really hate being wrong).
VOTE: Almost50

PS Whether I'm right or wrong, good game and well played everyone. I’ll be happy to play with you guys again.

[mhsmith0]

Well, game is over and hammer is down.

Was I right? PLEASE let me be right *nervous*

[mhsmith0]

Well, shit. Sorry town. I suck

[mhsmith0]

I did my best, wasn't good enough. Super frustrating. One slot was a wolf (I've tended to use that terminology rather than scum across games, someone convinced me it was better, I forget why), and the other mislynch bait. Live and learn I guess. I really drove the town off the cliff in this game. Well played KAAG/YA.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, I was looking at that and figuring that it simply didn't make any sense at all as a town play, but made a decent amount of sense as a "oh crap I need to protect the deep wolf" type play. And then I re-read, and re-read, and re-read... and couldn't actually see anything from the Ryu/Egg/A50 to make me think town, while there were spots here and there that YA looked town. Also those links to prior YA games, he'd just massively lurked as mafia and this game just didn't look that same at all.

[mhsmith0]

PS @UTL: I really am sorry about being a jerk about that situation, FWIW.

[mhsmith0]

Sorry man. Hopefully we will be on the same side in the future.

On the whole, a scum win, to me, feels right after D1/D2.

Yeah you guys played better than us. If I didn't death tunnel on Ircher, it might have been different. Alas.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, KAAG played well. I played aggressively, and my reads were shit.

I was honestly hoping that you guys were going to give me stuff to work with in final LYLO, but mentally I put "Clumsy doing nothing as town" as a more reasonable explanation than "A50 doing nothing as town".

The KAAG self hammer pointed towards YA, but it was weak and WIFOM-y. The YA-KAAG D3 fighting felt fake, but faker from KAAG than YA. And the whole "gee, I just don't know why scum!KAAG would possibly self-hammer" bit from A50 just felt SO fake.

I really need to do better on this, but I honestly don't know how I could have legitimately looked at this thread and found YA-KAAG to be way likelier than A50-KAAG. That was a really hard judgement call to make. Or I'm just incompetent. I mean, I know a good amount of theory, but in terms of actually being able to put it into practice, I'm a total mess (as this game pretty effectively demonstrated). Sigh...

[mhsmith0]

FWIW, once my reads solidified a bit on D3 my "plan" had actually been to get KAAG lynched and then grill YA and Egg on D4 about anything and everything I could think of. And then both slots replaced, which made things just incredibly difficult for me to figure out. I mean, that's total excuse making, I know. Again, sorry town

[mhsmith0]

@KAAG: feel free to share thoughts on me, at least. I put a lot of effort into the game, but effort didn't really pan out very much. FWIW, I DO think my "it can't be YA/Egg, therefore it must be KAAG" read was legitimately decent. And given that basically the entirety of the dead townies had been town reading you, I DO think that was a pretty good read, even if my communication of it wasn't much to write home about.

@All: can you guys clarify how Ircher was obv!town? Clearly I wasn't capable of seeing it, so the more you can explain the better I'll be at figuring out what I'm missing.

[mhsmith0]

@KAAG: Cool, I appreciate it. I was looking at graveyard chat, and it's pretty clear that consensus is about what I self-evaluated as: some good, but a lot more bad.

PS My wolf game is utterly, hilariously, bad. Two games, two lynches, on THREE game days (and I was the counter-wagon the one day I survived, wtih D2 being "kill MHS day").

[mhsmith0]

@Ircher: One thing I'll say: if you have anything close to as strong as town read on someone as you claim to have had on UTL/Radja, never ever ever let them get lynched. Your EOD1 behavior completely read to me like you were trying to hide your vote in a safe spot away from the counter-wagon while making really half-hearted efforts to do anything about the result. That's just not townie behavior. If you're that sure, you need to make absolutely certain the town knows you're strongly against the lynch.

And that probably includes actively arguing against the specific votes, and either going hard for the counter-wagon or explicitly voting one of the people who was on the wagon, specifically for having a crappy vote. If your opinion is that strong, act on it. Otherwise it looks like you're lying to the thread about something super important (your reads)... and that's lynchable stuff IMO.

PS Yes, the YA D1 hammer was terrible, and I really should have pushed harder on that. Probably my biggest regret of the game.

[mhsmith0]

But, @Smith

Not having absolute confidence/doing things carelessly is quite common for me. I voiced my opinion even if not well.

Yeah, but if that's going to be your play style you'll get lynched pretty consistently, whether town or not. Hypocrisy in voting behavior, ESPECIALLY EOD when it really matters, is a wolf tell. And general careless behavior isn't a good thing. I mean, in our other game together I had to actively argue "oh Ircher is just ML bait" way too early to take the heat off of you, which outed myself as your mason-buddy to KC (and possibly others). The stuff people suspected you for in that game was legitimately suspicious.

I mean, my biggest weakness are:
1) I'm flat-out horrific at faking my town process when I'm not town (just read http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... alad-Mafia and http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... Princesses - I'm AWFUL at looking town in those).
2) My second biggest weakness is that my reads aren't all that good.
3) My third weakness is that I can be a bit too wordy and tunnell-y (although in my defense on that point, I'd like to note that I actively tried to do better on that front, and actively rethink my reads, most notably in the aftermath of the UTL-SIW fight).

These are things where I'm actively trying to improve. Some of them, I'm honestly not sure HOW to improve them (#s 1 and 2 especially, although simply getting more experience hopefully helps), but I'm at least aware of the issues and doing what I can do figure out how to do better (and if someone wants to tell me something different should make that list, I'll look at it and try to learn from it too). I really would suggest you try and look at your own processes and try and do better. 7 ML's and 0 NK's in 10 games is a really not good record.

PS I'd say my biggest strengths are:
1) I sometimes get really good intuitive insights
2) I generally put a lot of effort into thinking through games (part of why I keep getting lynched as wolf is I just can't fake it well)
3) I look generally look obv!town as town

Those don't overcome my weaknesses, but it's at least something useful that I can lean on (except when I'm not town of course ).

[mhsmith0]

PS @Ircher: to clarify, you represented to the thread that you had absolute confidence. But acted as if you had anything but absolute confidence. That was a big deal to me, and my argument carried D2 (unfortunately).

[mhsmith0]

btw, @KAAG: That clanger was way less bad than you thought. I admittedly only skimmed, but the main takeaway from there was YA super lurked as a wolf, and his whole engagement looked different this game. That's one of those "it feels like an obvious goof" when you already know the answer, but when you don't, it's way less bad. Or I was too lazy while reading. I'll admit that as a possibility

@Ircher: yes, that's true. Changing playstyle is HARD, and sometimes not fun at all. The real question is whether you really want to improve, and if seven ML's in ten games is OK or not. At the least, there's probably stuff you can do around the edges to improve, which could be as simple as mentally listing specific behaviors that people view as suspicious, like:
- rolefishing (the other game, IIRC you did that with Anen)
- (seemingly) lying to thread about your confidence in your reads (this game)
- whatever other things you've gotten lynched for
and just not doing those things. If nothing else, it should at least help reduce the frequency of mislynches you get subjected to.

[mhsmith0]

FWIW, it's actually kind of funny that I'm 0-2 as town in games where I'm getting reasonably positive reviews, and 1-0 as town in games where I basically got carried by more competent teammates. Maybe I should just coast more often

PS KAAG was still my first ever legit wolf catch (and given a game state where SO many easy reads pointed to YA/Egg, I do think that was a solid catch), and we didn't get swept. Both of those are pride points, even though we lost. I also consider it a minor moral victory that I didn't just say "screw it" and lynch A50 on D3. He just seemed so utterly obv!wolf every time I looked at him and his posts. My earlier suspicion of a KAAG-YA team just couldn't hold up against that, especially since KAAG-Egg (I thought) made reasonable sense given the game state. The really, REALLY big moment of doubt for KAAG-Egg was

I will hammer before deadline!

Note: i am hyper-active: this will give 24 hours at least.

The question, which I never could answer, was whether he truly intended to hammer Egg (in which case it probably couldn't have been a team, although giving up on a teammate was at least somewhat possible), or whether that was an empty statement intended to drive people away from the wagon. And given that people DID abandon the wagon soon after, I couldn't discount the possibility that he wanted people off the wagon, and so couldn't discount the KAAG-Egg team. There were definite points where KAAG was going to bat for YA (notably his "I'm gonna move him to fence!town, his posts lately are better" bit on D1)... but that could have been just an empty read instead of trying to save his buddy. Just too hard to tell for sure. Sorry, town, for letting you down

PPS Given the game state, and the sheer volume of dead reads pointing to Egg/A50, lynching Clumsy would have been a hero read. And hero reads are (from what I can tell) pretty often wrong. I mean, if I'm sufficiently confident I'll go against the graveyard (like I did with KAAG), but I just wasn't. If A50 looked reasonably town (even if just on D4), I might have swung for the fences... but even though I was (clearly) wrong, I just don't know that I should have gone the other way given the in-thread information I had on hand. Picking between mislynch bait and the right lynch is just so damn hard. Although if there WAS clear evidence that made Egg clearly town (instead of plausible lurker wolf slot), please tell me. I hate being wrong, and I'm kind of competitive, so I really want to know so that next time I'll be likelier to actually get it right.

PPPS I'll take some responsibility for the overly slow gamestate. That said, the one time I tried to hurry things along was when I mislynched Ircher. So speed didn't work very well either

[mhsmith0]

btw, as a side note, somewhere along the way I had the gut sense that shannon had trackered Egg on N1, and that was why she was on ircher instead of egg, which I think was part of why I didn't want to go after Egg on D3. And then I think I totally forgot about that, and only now looking back was I like "oh yeah, that happened, I probably should have kept that higher in my mental priority list". Oops on both counts I guess

[mhsmith0]

btw, as a side note, somewhere along the way I had the gut sense that shannon had trackered Egg on N1, and that was why she was on ircher instead of egg, which I think was part of why I didn't want to go after Egg on D3. And then I think I totally forgot about that, and only now looking back was I like "oh yeah, that happened, I probably should have kept that higher in my mental priority list". Oops on both counts I guess

I tracked Ircher because I thought he was scummy, and when I got no result, I legit thought that he must have known Town was on to him, and had a partner make the kill. That's why I joined the lynch. I also couldn't explain my no result without outing myself as tracker. In future, should I have jumped in and mentioned the no result once the wagon was on Ircher?

I'll defer to expert, but in general I'd say hell no. Just like a cop innocent result, just keep it to yourself.

But... there were so many people who were in various states of suspicion, that at the least it was reasonably possible Ircher would have made the kill as wolf.

Basically, I'd say you should have been leaning/voting Egg (who was also a serious suspect at the time... or alternatively pushing YA or someone else), and been solidly off the Ircher wagon barring a slam dunk no doubt case. If you track/JK someone and the kill still goes through, it makes it mechanically pretty unlikely they are wolf. Obviously not lock (unless one is already dead)... but you should have been off his wagon. Otherwise people will read the wrong result from your work.

PS I'd also suggest (and again, experts please correct me if I'm wrong) you generally track someone in the "general opinion" null to town range (especially if you personally are more suspicious of them). For instance, if you'd tracked Summer, you'd have seen her visiting me and had a mechanical clear on her because you'd have KNOWN she was doc. If you'd tracked me, you'd have been clearer on me, and if you'd tracked KAAG, that's a fun way to out a mafia.

[mhsmith0]

@Summer: It was fun playing with you too! GL in future games, and maybe we'll be together in one again before long!

@Ircher: I'd say your biggest strength is fearlessness. That can be a weakness too, but playing in a way that suggests you DGAF can be towny. Aggressiveness is good, you just have to watch the outright mistakes. There's a player on Playdip, condude1, who reminds me a bit of you. He also gets mislynched a LOT as town, but is still a fun player to be around, because he's fearless too. The key, I think, is channeling it appropriately. Be unafraid of going out on limbs with reads and potentially making enemies, but be cautious about gambiting. "I'm just doing stuff to see what happens" and "oh that's just my meta" will get you lynched pretty often, especially if you're in a game largely with people who haven't played with you before.

PS @ those who were calling me super obv town, can you clarify exactly what made you think that? I keep finding it difficult to fake my town process when I'm not town, so the better I can understand it, the better I'll be able to lean on it when I have to.

[mhsmith0]

@smith:

Oh, well.. you live and you learn. Now I know your town play is so scummy and you know mine is too. Perhaps we both should give eachother a break in future games

*shrugs* you were the only person on the board who thought my play was anything other than town (some thought it was super obv!town too). Go read graveyard chat. Your play WAS wolfy... you just weren't the wolf. I feel bad about getting it wrong... but you invited that read/vote. If you'd simply just lurked after joining, I'd probably have ended up on YA on D4. If you'd put serious effort into changing my mind on D4 (as opposed to various empty AtE stuff), I at least MIGHT have moved onto Clumsy. I just couldn't mentally get out from all the stuff you were doing. Some day I'll get good enough to reach that point (I hope), but this game just wasn't that point.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, it's just super frustrating. I hate losing, especially in a game where I was really putting in a lot of effort. It's a game that shows the limitations of my current abilities (as town anyway), and while it does motivate me to improve, it also just sucks mentally, especially in the immediate aftermath. I want to figure out what I can do to avoid this happening again... and it's hard. "Guess right next time" is certainly something I could do, but I don't even see what I could have / should have been looking at instead of what I was actually looking at. I guess I could/should have fought harder against UTL/Radja lynch D1, but I was also pretty surprised at the early hammer. And if the D2 Ircher lynch was bad... I want to know why, because I certainly didn't see it at the time.

[mhsmith0]

@A50/Ircher: Well, Summer protecting me was why I wasn't killed, but not why I wasn't targeted. "Why are you still alive" is actually a pretty decent question in that situation. But "they killed Thor to shut him up" was a legitimate answer to that question (ditto the idea that I might be an obvious N1 doc protect, therefore I shouldn't be targeted), and obviously N2 was a PR kill. So that's a point of suspicion, sure, but not even close to condemning.

[mhsmith0]

PS Egg himself expressed a "I thought Smith was a BP" read, which was actually a super reasonable reason for mafia not to target me (and IIRC I'd thought of that as a bit of TMI, ditto the "hooker" reference which seemed like possible picking up lingo from wolf chat).

[mhsmith0]

btw, I was actually mentally playing around a bit with "just go with Thor's reads" as a strategy (and it partially informed my D2/3 behavior tbh), which would have actually won the game for town if I'd stuck with it. I don't mind admitting when I'm in part sheeping someone who's a lot smarter than me. If only I'd stuck with it

[mhsmith0]

btw, A50, when you're under that much suspicion, you simply HAVE TO put in the effort to get yourself out of it. Empty AtE BS won't cut it. You really really looked like a wolf who basically just gave up because he was outed.

I mean, your defense was basically "trust me I'm not a wolf" and "here's some vaguely suspicious stuff from KAAG that might point to YA". You gave me NOTHING to work with. I was practically begging you two to give me stuff to work with. Clumsy didn't because he was a wolf. You didn't because... honestly, I have no clue why.

I mean, you didn't even have to go that far back to see when I was thinking it was probably YA/KAAG. You could have mined that portion of the game. You could have sold the YA/KAAG "fight" as being just as fake from YA as KAAG. You could have put in the work on KAAG to show that KAAG-Egg as a team simply didn't make any sense. You could have done that or more. You just... didn't.

I'll take the blame for the Ircher ML. I'll take the blame for not fighting the Radja lynch (though I had gone back and forth so much on that slot that I wasn't really super opposed to it). But I don't know if anyone would have sided with you given the info on the board. And you choosing not to change that fact... I dunno. If you care, you'll improve. If you care, you'll try harder next time you're in the situation. If you care, you'll do your best to learn from the game.

I care, so I'm trying to learn from it. Even though it's hard. Even though it's hard to even figure out what I truly could have / should have done differently. Even though it's hard to force myself to address my inadequacies. Even though I'll probably screw it all up a different way next time. Even though maybe I'll just repeat the same mistakes until it gets through my thick head. Because I hate losing. Because I hate playing poorly. Because I feel like shit every time this happens, and I HATE feeling like this. I dunno. Maybe that's just me.

[mhsmith0]

btw, I'm legit looking forward to your review KAAG. I bet you're going to be super impressed by my play

Spoiler: Actually

Actually I read dead chat

[mhsmith0]

@Egg: I wish you'd stuck around. Probably I'd have ended up voting KAAG/YA ftw if you had. Oh well. Some you win some you lose.

PS FWIW, I do think you'd be better off putting yourself out there and really making reads, engaging, pushing, etc. I mean, you can lurk and probably end up with a not totally terrible record, but it's a lot more fun if you're putting a lot into it. I mean, when you put a lot into it and still lose anyway, it REALLY sucks.. but when you try hard and win it's really awesome. FWIW, I have a win on this site where I was kinda coasting a bit (see the sig)... and I'm glad I was on the winning side, but it felt hollow. What I want is a game where I'm trying hard and I do really well and I make a legit difference in a team win. It has yet to happen (except in a single wacky "all vigs" turbo game where I stumbled onto a pretty solid wolf read and shot a wolf on N1)... but I feel like it will happen. Eventually. Just gotta keep plugging away, and trying to learn from my mistakes, until it finally works out.

[mhsmith0]

As far as I know twilight seems to be dangerous for town.
I don't think we should be putting all of our thoughts out there because we will soon find out if Radja is scum or town.
Giving free information to scum is bad.
saying things like "if he is town I will think or if he is scum I will think" is just giving out free information with no gain to town as far as I can see.

Btw, summer, you kinda outed as PR here. You were a wide town read, and the implication here was you were worried about getting nk'd yourself. It's subtle (unlike Shannon's) but it's something to keep an eye out for in the future. In retrospect, wolf team's biggest mistake this game was not shooting you n1. You were less obvious of a protect than me, but you were still a plausible pr.

[mhsmith0]

Btw, ircher, if you want to pull eod voting stunts, try doing them in a way that seems towny.

See http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/sea ... pp=&page=6

Iawy was bs'ing super hard eod, but it was obvious he was bs'ing, and it was obvious he was doing it to see what would happen. He was super obv town there (he was also the cop and I shot his ass as a cop catch n1 before crashing and burning in thread d2 ).

[mhsmith0]

btw ircher, I think it's going to be really interesting when you finally draw a wolf PM. Some people love it, some people hate it (I'm the latter, I don't like lying AND I've had such flagrant and consistent failure as wolf that it's just been incredibly frustrating)... I think you may actually enjoy it.

[mhsmith0]

That seems like a bit of conf. bias, theoretically the tell should apply equally to them, yeah?

Maybe. But it was more like, Clumsy was doing nothing because he was winning, which was basically null (because both players were essentially wolves in the sense that they're survivalist and already "know" the answer, and are really just playing to get me to vote the other guy).

A50 was doing nothing while he was aware that he was losing. Giving up like that felt like a wolf tell. Going from what seemed like extreme efforts to get me lynched to basically "blah, whatever"... it felt like he'd tried for the sweep, saw it failed, saw he was in danger, and THEN basically just gave up. It's super hard to reconcile that with a town mindset. Even now that I actually know he was town... I still don't see the why of it. I just don't.

I mean his ISO post KAAG's self hammer was basically all AtE and WIFOM. No self-analysis and/or convincing mea culpa (UTL's "he's trying to be a hero" bit in dead chat actually made sense, and if that point had been explicitly made I might have actually listened), and little work to re-read and think through how KAAG-YA fundamentally made sense or (just as importantly, and I even emphasized this during D3 twilight), to think through how KAAG-Egg fundamentally didn't make sense, etc.

In retrospect, I should probably have given him a firm "you're going to get voted if you don't convince me" deadline before actually voting, like you'd see with 24 hour intent to hammer in a larger thread. Maybe he'd have done something to convince me. That part I think I blew and wish I'd handled differently. The rest... I don't know how you can read that as town. I just... don't. If someone can explain it to me, awesome. I'd love to learn. But I feel like the only way I could have gotten it right would be to 100% tune him out and vote ONLY on what happened pre-subs.

I also feel like it truly would have been the epitome of a hero call with neither side being certain and almost the whole dead town making "hang Egg/A50" their last wills, unless there was something fundamentally obvious and compelling to make the conclusion super clear. I'm stubborn enough to make that call if I see compelling evidence. Barring that... I'm just not. I couldn't let a minor lean I had towards the other slot override the mass of people going hard the other way, and that's if I'd even leaned towards voting Clumsy. Which I wasn't.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, that's a very fair point. I really needed to push more. Definitely something to keep in mind the next time I'm in a similar position.

[mhsmith0]

There are a couple of "standard" methods for handling lylo, and you did pick one of them.
I will admit it's not my favorite, but I have seen people get good results from it. I suspect the only issue with it was using it to gauge activity levels.

Well that and the outcome

I'll also admit the mafia team was better this game than town. Somehow turning that around into a town win... that would have been awesome. At least I've got some specific things to learn from this effort, and hopefully next time will go better. We'll see.