TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[joqiza]

[joqiza]

joqiza continuing to not post in here is Not A Good Look

My posting habits are based around my RL schedule, regardless of alignment, and you know that. Make a comment like this again and I'll consider it a scumclaim from you.

[joqiza]

Nice to meet all of you. I'll have time this evening to sit down with the game and go through it. No thoughts yet, I've only seen snippets and I want to read on my own before I discuss with my team.

[joqiza]

I have read the whole game.

[joqiza]

It is pretty dense, but interesting. Tbh I don't think the hostility is really that bad by the standards of my home site. In EM terms this game would be medium spicy.

[joqiza]

I will do a wallpostie tmrw, I'm tired now.

Most of my reads r pretty close to what Super's legacy reads were. Mena/lilith both seem quite towny to me. Kobaslot felt genuine at points. Everyone else I have thots on but I eval once I have slept.

I have not yet consulted at length w/ my team but I do know there is a pretty strong consensus among those 3 that Autumn Leaves is scum and must perish by my blade. I am no sheep tho and I will perform my own due dilligence on the slot.

@Autumn as a start, I'd be interested in hearing Ydrasse's current view of this game.

[joqiza]

I have good news for you all which is that unlike my predecessor in this slot I am unarguably a fairly standard read, possibly even an ez read. (Brief note: Super is a great player but the way Koba represented her meta is.... sigh... I can go into it if needed but Super is not some unreadable player. She is a great scum player cuz it's true she's good at surviving the rope, but, like any player, when she's a villager she plays like a villager and when she's a wolf she plays like a wolf, it's just that simple. Both times I played town to her scum I've called her out and cased her.)

Some more details about me. I've been playing forum mafia for just over 1 year now, and mafia in general for a bit longer: I played chat mafia on EM for awhile before I played my first forum game there, and after that I switched over to forum entirely cuz the longform format just suits me better. I've only played three scumgames ever and in my most recent one that just finished I got absolutely dumpstered. I think my townranges and scumranges genuinely do not overlap atm, like I really think and can probably argue with evidence that even my worst town game ever is still "townier" than my towniest scum game.

Another important thing: my schedule, I intend to be an active voice and thread presence but it's simply gonna come in the evenings or on the weekends, I try not to allow myself to look at forum games when I'm on the clock. I have a bit of an obsessive personality and for that reason I need to set boundaries for myself. Yesterday and today not great days for me due to my work schedule, for obvious reasons I was not anticipating having to play a high-commitment forum game, & this evening I have some stuff going on, but this weekend I will Most Definitely be around.

I don't actually expect anyone to metadive me, I pretty much never bother doing that, but I know that's a Thing so if you are interested:

Spoiler: Relevant Game History

My most recent towngames:

- https://epicmafia.com/topic/96337 (North Pole Oligarchy)
- https://epicmafia.com/topic/96291 (Chosen Mafia)
- https://epicmafia.com/topic/96131 (TinyHunt)
- https://epicmafia.com/topic/95768 (Circus Mafia)

My most recent scumgames:

- https://epicmafia.com/topic/96424 (PokeMaf)
- https://epicmafia.com/topic/95511 (Neighbor Mafia)
- viewtopic.php?f=50&t=82949 (Newbie 2003 on Mafiascum)

[joqiza]

P-edit: Okay, I was writing more content about my own playstyle but I saw FB's post and I get you guys don't really need that so I'll just put it in a spoiler at the bottom of this.

Uhhh, my reads so far. So I knew before I read that the general consensus on my team was that Menalque town, I didn't see any reason to dispute that as I read through. Like, one thing that happened was I read 156, and I said to myself, "hm, this kinda seems like a villager, not really sure why, but yeah," and then in 242 Ampharos has the exact same take on it, so that was a good sign. The Menalque sub in is so interesting, I don't really ~know~ Menalque (have heard him referred to at points), but the entire game just seemed to sort of warp around his sub-in. Clearly he's a strong player based on how people have treated him, and just like, the general air of his posts, so I guess I shouldn't write him off too easy? But just the general tone, confidence, energy of his posts gave me good vibes on read-through. And he hard TR obvious town Super, so like. That's a plus, too. Idk I just want him to be town too, this game seems like it'll be so much easier if he's town.

Lilith was the other slot that came off as strongly town on my read. Uh, just the vibes of her like, being busy, not having time to always catch up on thread, but when she's behind she always holds her ground and insists she's gonna take it at her own pace, and then when it's time for her to catch up it looks like she reads the whole thread and outs detailed thoughts on each player. I feel like I can relate deeply to the mindset she holds, admittedly I haven't actually read her posts that CLOSELY but. Look we're at first impressions here.

I have a work meeting now but the other slot I want to expand on is Koba when I get a chance--will try to get to it sometime this evening. I've played w/ them before, know them decently well, can probably provide some insights to what I believe they were doing / their behavior.

Included spoiler post below with a long rant about my playstyle, you don't need to read it if you don't want to, probably unnecessary:

Spoiler: More shit about me

Some other info about my playstyle & just general who I am:

My favorite part of this game is looking for the #DeepWolves, I am like my home site's resident conspiracy theorist. Super called herself the most paranoid player somewhere earlier... I counterclaim that the difference is my tinfoiling is pretty internal but it's incessant. Another thing about me, I like reading the game chronologically. I can't just pick out individual posts without context and say "this is a villager, this is a wolf" like some people seem to be able to (maybe I'm not experienced enough yet), instead I have to read the game, and read it again, and read it again, until I've read the game so many times that I live and breathe the game, I live in the game, I Become the Game and the Game whispers to me and the Game tells me who the mafia are.

Results vary but I like to think I'm decent at scumhunting just thru brute force if anything.

My scum game is like... trying to figure out how I can replicate the same thought process and tone and stuff that I have as tone, realizing I can't, and just trying to avoid attention and figure out ways to set up my partners to endgame knowing I'll be caught and elimmed at some point. My best scumgame (I only have those 3 in forum) is probably that Neighbor Mafia game, and the only reason I did well there is cuz it was a multiball and I basically hacked the setup by figuring out who the 3P was, fabricating an entire one shot day cop claim around that player, getting them lynched, and then town miscleared me off the mechs. Even in that one I was fairly blatant tho and before my claim I was under a lot of pressure.

I think the only other thing to know about me is I generally try not to AtE regardless of alignment these days. I was never fond of it and after awhile I just decided to strip it out of my game entirely. For me, these forum games are the online equivalent of a bunch of people sitting around a table, passing out role cards, and just enjoying the intellectual exercise and each other's company. I don't really think I believe in the concept of Mafia: The eSport, I just think it's a fun hobby and I love meeting new people.

[joqiza]

Oh, and I want to quickly clarify that my #1 Mission right now is to press on Autumn Leaves and get a Vibe read on them for myself. I subbed into this, and like, I've been trying to hold off on reading all my team's stuff rn because I want to get a fresh pair of eyes first, but I'll say that they are hard tunneled on Autumn. There was a list of teamsolves they were considering and every single teamsolve I saw involved Autumn Leaves. Which was mildly concerning actually, because at that point you know it's in conf bias territory.

On read through for myself, I saw some eh posts, but I guess I didn't really... I didn't NOT see it. But like, the case of how Autumn Leaves is calling Super a deepwolf without reasons, sure, that's true, but like. It's a decent point but I don't see it as slam-dunk and there were a few posts here or there from them that I thought were OK.

I trust the members of my team a lot, they're fantastic players, but I also can see a universe where Hercule (who is kind of an ego player himself) saw Autumn pushing on Super and just went feral. Menalque reaffirming the read gives me some confidence, but the whole thing there did play out a bit OMGUS-y as well. I like my vote where it is, but I want to presh Autumn a bit myself, get my own in-the-moment read.

@Autumn the reason I want Ydrasse's read on The Situation is that... I don't really know you, but I've played with her, I think she's a great player. I know she's a busy person and if she doesn't have the bandwidth that's fine, but if you're town I feel like... communicating with her might help me see it? Maybe not, but I'd like to try.

[joqiza]

Walk me through the differences between Super!town and Super!wolf, in terms of her specific towntells this game

This will be unnecessary.

Anything I say will be basically the equivalent of self-meta, given it's my own slot, but I can actually do this if needed. I mean I try not to rely on meta too much in general but I can break down my experiences and the way I have known she is a wolf in the past. Just lmk.

[joqiza]

I think some context of EpicMafia stuff may help people sort Koba's slot. Or maybe it won't be useful, but I thought I'd provide it, and it helped me get my own thoughts in order anyway.

There was a pretty epic 17k post multiball game that finished last month on our home site. Super ended up winning as last werewolf. D4 of that game, I outed a case on her, pretty confidently. We ended up hanging a scum from a different faction instead, Super nightkilled me, went on to endgame. Koba was the host/mod for the game.

Several months before that, Koba and I hydra'd together in the aptly named Circus Mafia. Super was also in this game as the "Grinner" slot (another hydra... EpicMafia was kind of going through a hydra phase at the time). I called her out there as well, we ended up hanging her partner first, she nightkilled me, and then the remaining clear ignored my read and hammered a villager instead of Super (one of my most frustrating losses).

Many of the sentiments Koba expressed about Super's slot are ones that, while not necessarily accurate or complete, are stances I think they do genuinely hold regardless of alignment. 45, 67, 541, are things I think they believe, even if it's... idk. To me, Koba, being the host of these forum games, has watched Super play from the perspective of perfect information, and has thoughts about her playstyle following that. But they have not been exposed to the deductive process of being town to her scum (exception being the one game we hydra'd in together, and to be frank--I was in the driver's seat for that). To me, it's kind of gauche to make sweeping generalizations about someone's playstyle without actually having played much with them, but w/e.

Back to the point. I think Koba's behavior this game is surface level scummy. But Koba's play this game is also viewable through this lens: town!Koba, frustrated at Super's tendency to get away as scum, starts ego-tripping and believes in order to beat scum!Super they have to essentially emulate my play from D4 of that multiball game. Is that view just giving Koba a free pass? Maybe. I thought I'd bring it up, though, and people can make their judgements with the full context available.

---

My team's standing opinion on the Koba-slot is a bit divided. Hercule, who's paid the closest attention to the Super/koba situation, feels koba is probably town. petapan and spf have not looked at the slot as closely, but are suspicious of koba's pushes. peta's linked me one of their recently completed scumgames (also a nightless), and says their play in that game resembles this one. peta thinks scum!koba might, in a nightless, be playing aggressively in order to prevent a towncore from forming. I haven't looked at the linked game yet myself.

Before the replacement, I'd been hoping to get a better read on Koba by pressuring them directly. I believe they value my input and respect my play, they've come to me for feedback before, we've discussed general gameplay stuff, we've hydra'd together twice (pretty successfully, too). Despite all that, Koba remains a tough read for me, mainly because I can't ever dismiss the possibility that they're town scumsiding. Historically as town they've had a nasty tendency to view the game completely backwards, aggressively pushing bad reads and refusing to dialogue or re-evaluate. I think they've improved since then, but since they've played mostly on MS recently, I don't have a sense of how the lower bound of their townrange may have shifted.

500 and 1069 felt genuine to me on first read-through. Their response to me entering the game felt a tiny bit skittish, but I didn't get much there before they got removed.

I echo Menalque in that I'd guess town on the slot, but will wait to evaluate the new player.

[joqiza]

Right now I have Chen/Auro/Firebringer in one kind of nullish category, and Flopz/Jonny in a different kind of nullish category. I think the Chen/Auro/FB category is like, the "null" category who won't actually be null after I go back and look closely at their posts this weekend. Johnny /Flopz I could see remaining null possibly, but who knows.

For Chen/Auro/FB, tbh a lot of their posts blended together for me on first read and the main impression I got is that they were all resistant to vote the Autumn wagon for the bulk of the day, for varying reasons. I got the sense that they were all nice fellas, though, and I think their presence made Super's time here a lot more bearable. So thank you guys for that.

I know Menalque TR's Auro, so I'll start w/ him, following Mena's thread of logic to see if I agree with it.

In terms of my current limpool, I really think I'm gonna just keep my vote on Autumn. Once I've taken a look at the nullbois this weekend and wrapped my head around this game a bit more I'll be down to give any compromise wagons. But for now imma just keep it here.

[joqiza]

“Wow have did u hear that Mena threw another game the other day?”

“My god, another one!? He is truly awful”

I see my reputation precedes me

Hi, joqiza

I’m probably not going to bother to try and read you that much because I think your predecessor was v town but I am looking forward to having you in the game and working with you!

Haven't heard anything like that Just have seen you around here and there when I'm looking through the forums, and I know Koba has Beef with you (but I don't know the context, and probably don't need to know). I'm looking forward to working with you as well.

[joqiza]

@joqiza Ydrasse told me to send you this, and that she's feeling very demotivated but will try

Let's take a universe for a second, where we're both town. Let's add Mena and Lilith as town to this universe, too, since I believe you townread them both. Who would you look at as scum in this universe, of the remaining slots? Who would be your top suspect(s), and why?

And you can let Ydrasse know there's no rush. I did make her this meme though.

[joqiza]

thanks for the posts joqiza!

re: koba I agree, which is why I said a while ago that koba was “probably town but I didn’t want to townread them.” I think they have elements to their playstyle that are like scummy regardless of alignment, like that they have an agenda or sometimes an ass-backwards view of the game but it doesn’t necessarily mean anything.

Can you explain the differentiation between the first null group and second a bit more? Johnny was also reluctant to join a wagon on infinity, so what sets him apart from chennis/fb/auro?

The differentiation between my null groups is like my guess as to whether they'll stay null or not. My own prediction there might turn out to be wrong, and I'll find out in a bit--I've set aside some time this afternoon for the game. I'll also try to clarify why I split up the groups that way, but it might come across a bit incoherent just cause it was one of those initial impression / formless gut sense things.

On my read-through chen/fb/auro got lumped together in my head as "decent sounding blokes who were nice to Super." I'm sure there's distinctions to be made, like I had a few thoughts on each player... the way I try to solve games is recursive. Now that I feel like I've sorted you and Menalque, I want to go back, and in the context of you two being town, try to evaluate those three more deeply.

With Johnny, my main impression was that he was mostly absent, and then 180'd on Super and placed a vote down on me following the substitution. Which is not great, surface level. I think the reason I predict he's gonna stay in that second null category is he mentioned he has a newborn son, which I believe, of course. And while that's NAI itself, it does mean that he has an entirely valid reason for being somewhat absent, a life event which is far, far more important than following a forum mafia game, and so... yeah. Basically I think it's gonna be harder to distinguish between: (villager distracted by life events) vs. (wolf distracted by life events), than it would be to simply distinguish between (villager) and (wolf).

I think with Johnny too I have an intuitive caution about slots like him that seem like LHF, which, as I think about it, might not actually be relevant in a nightless. On my home site, the way most games play out really, is that you wanna chop wolves early, as early as you possibly can, because in any given game there are only a handful of strong town players who can actually get wolves chopped effectively, and if you wait around too long those voices get killed off and the game devolves. The same problem shouldn't exist in this setup, I don't think. Flipping a town!LHF slot doesn't seem like it would damage town in that same manner.

[joqiza]

can you explain what you found genuine about 1069[/post?

last time i 1v1d you you just ragequit so i won there, and i was actually scum there, so there's 0 chance of that here especially on my home turf <3

Kinda just comes down to vibes, but just felt like something they'd be more likely to say as town than as scum. For context, that 1v1 they're referring to is a game of TinyHunt, in which scum!Koba pushed on town!Super aggressively until she subbed out. I think Koba's thought here is something along the lines of, "I beat you by making you leave the game, and I did that when I was scum and you were town, so if I'm town here and you're scum, I should be able to beat you even easier." It's not unfakeable (nor is it a pleasant line of thinking), but it was one that stuck out to me.

Also, hi mathblade, welcome.

[joqiza]

I've given the game a second pass-through, and I have a couple of wallposts incoming. Brace yourselves.

First,

Auro

. I townread this player; I think based on my read-through, it is he who seems to be weighing the Autumn vs. Mena/Super conflict from the towniest perspective, and his suspicion of Super which feels most genuine. His perspective in 2031 is well-explained, and he seems to be actually forming implications based on a scum!Super world, since he felt scum!Super would imply town!Autumn. It felt like he updated that implication as the game progressed and his read on Super evolved. I noticed 2129 as a decent insight to the situation, presented matter-of-factly. I like his theorizing in 2159, both the tone and the fact that his team considered the idea. I get the sense that Auro has been thinking about the game closely, and picking up on things, such as in 2982, when he picks up on Autumn's reversal on chennisden--this is something I noticed myself. Lastly, I think his angleshoot in 2969 is probably a town-indicative thought process, though I can't discuss the specific content in that post.

Second,

chennisden

. The main thing I noticed, and I'll get to this in my second wallpost, was the relationship between him and Autumn. There are certain posts I like by Chen; 156 feels kind of self-indulgent in the way I and other villagers sometimes get, when we start waxing poetic about Information and Win Condition and Positioning and such. Following that, I don't mind when he starts going on about weighted graph theory and keystone slots, I guess I sort of see the game in a similar way. I'm mostly confused by the people he included as keystone slots: 1849 and his explanation in 1860. I understand Super and Menalque, I guess, but why Auro? And why does Auro have the most connections? I wouldn't say it's non-sensical, there might be meaning behind it, but I don't quite understand it.

My main impression of chen is that he

really really

wanted to push outside of the Super & Mena vs. Autumn conflict. He consistently proposes wagon options inside, including Auro, then DkKoba, then Johnny. This is true even as he seems to be coming around to both Super and Menalque being town. In terms of tone he seems relatively loose to me, and there are certain posts I like. For instance, I like him picking up on 2728 and 2736, because that

was

weird, and I considered that too; lilith-team's TR on flopz based on meta is one of the less observable thought processes in the game, even if I find her explanation OK.

I kinda liked him engaging directly with Menalque during 2467.

I really think chen will be easier to evaluate after Autumn is resolved. I'm not interested in flipping him today, because I feel like so much of his slot is contingent on Autumn's flip. His pushing outside during the Super/Autumn conflict

might

be towny if Autumn flips town. Obviously he's a viable partner if Autumn flips scum: I expand on that in next post.

Firebringer

. I like his tone throughout. I like 1070, and I like how that segued off of him memeing around a bit with chenn. His TR on Super throughout the game is... maybe a pocket? But I don't see any reason it

has

to be. I think his reasoning w.r.t to Menalque in 2778 is acceptable. But yeah, I did get the same impression on my first read-through, that Menalque might be FOSing Autumn from a place of town entitlement. I think his doubling down on Menalque in 3017 reads a

bit

towny, as it's against consensus as that point in the game.

My main conclusions on the three fellas. I think Auro is towny independent to what Autumn Leaves flips. I think chenn and FB are both sus if Autumn flips scum, but have towny moments and decent tone throughout. FB's tone I like a bit more than chennis. But really I don't want to vote either today, I want to resolve Autumn, bc if Autumn flips town it means I and my team have to fully re-examine this game in light of that, and I think I can parse chennis/FB for partner eq. more effectively once scum!Autumn is in the graveyard.

Flopz

didn't move much for me on rr, as expected. I think his tone in all his posts is Fine, so most of my notes about him are like, in relation to how he's talked about Autumn and if they're viable partners and such. I do kinda laugh cuz I saw lilith, and I think one other slot somewhere, say he's town cuz he's outside his scum meta. Not necessarily disputing the charge, I mean idk, just find it funny if he's outside his scumrange already despite not really doing much.

Johnny

is legitimately scummy in his sparse posting in the second half of the game. His vote on me in 2655 is suspicious in that it is immediate following my substitution for Super--a new player in a slot presents an opportunity to re-evaluate. The vote is possibly reactive to the votes on him placed by Chen and Lilith. I think if I were a villager in Johnny's position, following the replacement I would at least hesitate before placing a vote down on the new player in the slot, in that situation. He may also simply be scum!Autumn's partner: I expand on this in my next post.

---

My view of the game

ordered from least willing to elim to most willing to elim

menalque
lilith
auro
dkkoba
flopz
firebringer
chennisden
---------------
johnny
autumn

I will vote slots below the dotted line.

---

Autumn

is my primary scumread, he is my team's primary scumread, he is the slot that I feel has not given me a sense at all of "this is a villager." I would like to eliminate Autumn today.

My reasoning for wanting him resolved is a bit different from Super's or my team's, it is simply that I feel that of all the player's I've read, Autumn Leave's thought process seems the most likely to be artificial. He's able to justify his reasoning for why people are town fairly easily, but seems to struggle in explaining why he suspects people of being scum. His scumread on Super was based off intuition that he admitted to not being able to justify. In general he seems to reach conclusions on certain slots being town, such as on Koba in 563, a bit too easily. Most of his defenses come down to the statement of "but I play like this as town," which, I mean, sure, but it's a very typical thing for scum to reply with.

I can't help but shake the feeling that he is scum, who when asked to find other scum, is unable to fabricate convincing suspicion on townies, and unwilling to hard-bus.

I will settle for Johnny if needed. Can't really be that sure on him, cuz he's mostly absent, but I think in the case where he's town there's a good chance he just votes me consistently without re-evaluating or dialoguing, so I wouldn't really be too pressed over his elimination. My preference to eliminate Autumn mostly comes from the difficulty in really evaluating Johnny, and the fact that I think a town!Autumn flips gives more information than a town!Johnny flip would.

Every other slot above my dotted line I would not like to eliminate today, and I'll resist any wagon proportional to how high they are on the list. I do think we need to break the stalemate on this D1 at some point... it has lasted forever, and this game is

dense.

Parsing through this has taken like, a whole lot of my weekend, and if we delay it's only gonna get worse.

[joqiza]

I'm gonna delve into pre-flip associatives a bit here, which (to be clear), are never gonna be the main reason why I advocate for a certain slot to get hanged. I've always subscribed to the "chop the player you think is most likely to be a wolf, don't overthink it." I think it's still important to

look

at them, though--get a general sense of what the universes might be, understand who might be positioning themselves against you, trying to manipulate you, etc.

~

One of the things I mentioned to my team as I was first catching up with the game, was just how many people were defending Autumn, IMO to an extent incommensurate to his content. In my experience, scum are a bit hesitant to buddy so openly, and two players in the PoE hard defending each other do not necessarily flip the scumteam. My question to my team was something along the lines of, "are we seeing TMI here? Is Autumn actually spewed town?"

Hercule in particular, felt that this was not the case. He said that in a Black Flag setup, what he'd expect is that scum would have a much lower proclivity to bus than normal. Additionally, he felt that the resistance to Autumn's wagon was strange, because, given the assumption of a town!Mena universe (which he believes in very strongly), why wouldn't you see scum jump on the town!Autumn wagon? In that universe, there are two charismatic townies leading a wagon on another townie, why not follow it? I responded something along the lines of, "Perhaps scum decided to use the TvT to eliminate one of Super or Mena, who they view as greater and more immediate threats?" Hercule felt they would be unlikely to do that, with one exception: in the scum!Koba universe, Koba might decide to try to use the situation to eliminate one of Super or Mena, for personal reasons. It is this read on the gamestate that leads Hercule to believe that at least one of Autumn or Koba flips scum, and he TR's Koba. Hence Autumn is scum.

Personally, I'm not as sure on that specific gamestate read. I've found in games that every so often you encounter

resistance

to a vote... like, massive, massive resistance, and what implies about the player's alignment isn't necessarily clear. In general, my best gamestate reads come, (1) after a flip, and (2) when I know the people at a table well. Neither of which apply to this game. I did want to share my teammate's perspective here, though.

~

Another one of the things I've noticed in the game is a

dynamic

between chennisden and Autumn Leaves. I'm talking about posts like 504, 713, 1145, 1640, 1659, 1886, 2019, 2254, 2259, 2838. In addition to individual posts, these two players seemed to vibe early in terms of their suspicion of townblocs, and during Super & Mena's push on Autumn, chen was not interested in voting Autumn, even after he said he was considering that Super & Menalque might both be town. He was more interested in lynching in slots such as Auro, Koba, and Johnny.

Recently they appear to have turned on each other: Autumn mentioned he was reconsidering his read on chen in 2980, and Chen says his townread on Autumn has dissipated in 3053. They are now in each other's lynch pools.

Echoing what Hercule said up above, perhaps these two are partners who chose to defend each other throughout the game, with the belief that you simply cannot bus in Black Flag. But I think, still, that despite the hesitation to not

mechanically

bus, it is still slightly below rand for an SvS pair to defend each other so openly throughout the game. That's because, despite the fact that scum don't

actually

defend each other outright that often, most townies seem to

believe

that they do, and so as scum defending your partner you really just open yourself up to be teamread.

I'd like to share the following two progressions with you guys.

---

A Slice of the Game: The Rap Battle

{
720,
726,
742,

the battle begins...

759,

Super outs a not!SvS read on chen/FB once the battle subsides

760,

Autumn immediately counters that the two could still partnered

799,
803,
817,
896,

Firebringer says his push on chen is actually serious

1070,

Firebringer's case on chen

1145
}

First off, I want to say that the rap 1v1 is absolutely my favorite part of the game.

I mentioned the dynamic between chenn/Autumn. The most obvious line of thought is, "okay, maybe these two are just partners." I was looking at Firebringer, then, in order to assess the viability of a {Autumn/chenn/Firebringer} universe. (Hercule, on our team, has this as his current solve.) What I've told Hercule after reading this is that Firebringer just feels

outside the dynamic

. I think the rap battle itself doesn't imply too much about the alignments, but 896 followed by 1070... Firebringer explains that his push is not just playing around, he's serious. Autumn's response is to push on FB. It's not impossible, but it falls in likelihood to me, it's a complex way for scum to position themselves.

A bit separate from this progression is 1613 (this comes later in the game, shortly following the Mena sub-in), but another reaction that feels lightly non-partnered between Autumn/Firebringer.

---

A Slice of the Game: Chen's turn on Johnny, Autumn's Response

{
2344,

note Johnny's defense of Autumn, and SR on chen

2377,

chen responds

2387,
2422,
2648,
2650,

I've just subbed in, this is my only post so far

2653,

lilith votes Johnny

2655,

Johnny votes me

2673,

chen asks for another vote on Johnny

2677,

Autumn asks chen for a general sense of where he's at

2678,

Chen responds to Autumn, tells him he's thinking Johnny might be scum

2679,
2684,

(!) Key moment, see my thoughts below.

2697
}

For context, this progression goes from page 94 to page 108. Super and Mena have been pushing on Autumn quite a bit, with very little traction achieved.

(!):

After deciding that {Autumn/chen/Firebringer} seemed unlikely, I decided to evaluate the second most available universe, which was {Autumn/Chen/Johnny}. As mentioned, I was initially looking at Autumn/Chen as partnered, and stemming from that, looking for the third within Fire and Johnny. 2684 and its wider progression poses an issue specifically to the solve of {Autumn/Johnny/Chen}. It's just a bit of a complex interaction for a whole scumteam to fake, it's not

impossible

, but I wouldn't find it likely. Secondly, 2684 in particular gives me the impression of scum!Autumn trying to shift town!Chen's attention away from scum!Johnny. The previously stated

dynamic

between chennisden and Autumn Leaves may in fact be a scum!Autumn to town!chennisden relationship, if Autumn/Johnny are partnered.

---

So, what's the point of all this, anyway?

I think my point is that in the case that Autumn flips scum (which I believe to be likely atm), my first guess for partner would be Johnny, rather than chen or Firebringer. I think chen or FB

could

still be partnered with Autumn, but I think they'd both be relatively strong scum players for it, based on their interactions.

The second progression, in particular, suggests to me an Autumn/Johnny universe. There are a couple other posts that support this, such as 1834 and the aforementioned 2684. But striking to me is actually the

lack

of posts they have regarding one another. They don't seem willing to commit to hard TR's on one another, yet their votes are consistently elsewhere. Johnny simply has had his vote parked on me, Autumn has Johnny in his lynch pool but seems to be testing the waters a bit in posts like 3014.

Autumn could also simply be town, in which case a lot of the pre-associative work has to get thrown out. The posts I've assembled would be useful, it just means you have to revisit them in a different light. Johnny's 1834, for instance, would actually reflect well on him in the case of a town!Autumn flip imo.

[joqiza]

I'm still listening. I'm never locked in enough in a tunnel that I close off communication. But I think we're at the point where your best bet to change my read is to present your own case work. If you're town then find me scum. Find me a

specific

player you think will flip scum, and explain your reasoning.

Even a preference order, like what I gave in 3192, and an explanation for why the slot at the bottom belongs there, would be helpful.

[joqiza]

VOTE: Johnny

It's time for this guy to feel some heat.

[joqiza]

Going to sleep, but want to say that I want that I have no issues w/ a Johnny elimination, altho I'd like to give him a chance to talk first. His read on Super was bad, the timing of his vote on me was sus, the fact he apparently hasn't re-evaluated me is bad. I can empathize w/ his real-life situation but at some point the free pass expires.

[joqiza]

(I apologize I did skim this and will look more later when it’s not super late but I did have two questions)

1) Why is this only including some players and not others?
2) Why are you assuming autumn leaves is the elimination and framing it around that instead of who could be scum and/or would elim or would not list? Why does it seem like you’re centering things on sorting autumn?

1) I feel like you asking this implies you haven't read my earlier posts. Read my iso.
2) I don't understand this question. I'm interested in resolving my scumreads because they either flip mafia or give me information to re-evaluate.

Yeah lots of words in 3193 and it looks like that’s an autumn case but I am way too sleepy to do it justice. I did however skim the post numbers and I wonder if you’re caught up?

You said iirc you read the game but I didn’t see any recent post numbers (I could have missed some and it’s late)

I am curious if you’re not caught up or if that’s a lot of words to look Townie versus being Townie?

I haven’t seen you interact with people (I am sure it’s probably earlier where you have) but it’s been since I have replaced in for you to respond to people J. Not a fan. Would elim.

This post is deeply concerning to me. I'm not sure how to articulate why, but it's probably down to the fact that you 1. acknowledge that there is an earlier part of the game that should lend context to my posts, 2. proceed to ignore that context and say you'd elim me because you think I haven't interacted enough in the brief interim of time since you've subbed in.

Also, your response here to 3192 and 3193 sounds basically like, "Lots of words..... TOO MANY WORDS???"

There are a few recent post #'s. Those two posts are based off content from the entire game.

[joqiza]

@Flopz

Can you explain the basis of your Chen scumread? My understanding from reading your posts is that you'd suspected a Chen/Autumn team, as you'd felt they'd moved together. Your progression from, "Chen/Autumn might be a team," to "Chen is scum, but Autumn is town," doesn't feel clear to me.

[joqiza]

So basically, I’m less sure on infinity and math has made the koba!slot worse imo. Which then brings me to my final reason for switching: I feel like it’s gonna be easier killing math today. I think infinity has sort of locked himself into a bad position as scum because he knows I’m very dubious of him but by insisting he super duper TRs me I think that’s a hard place to pivot out of it I push him tomorrow for instance (which I will prob be doing if math doesn’t flip scum). Whereas I feel like it’s going to be another absolute fucking slogfest to elim math tomorrow if I *am* wrong on infinity, and so for that reason I think I’d rather reverse the order rn

This is similar to my current reasoning.

In my view, a block of myself/Menalque/Lilith/Auro probably wins the game, with the possibility that one of the other three might be a deepwolf. If there's like more than 1 wolf in there than my view of the game is cracked. My current interest is in finding one more slot to add to that block that I feel is most likely to be a villager and who has the least partner equity with the slots currently in the bloc that have deepwolf potential.

Following that, Autumn's response of "okay, well you/Mena/Lilith are all obvtown, let's find one more villager who's not me," and then voting the person I said he's most likely to be teamed with, is fairly disarming. town!Autumn is an asset because, he, like, actually has a pulse and is following this game and living in roughly the same universe I'm living in, and simultaneously, scum!Autumn has kind of backed himself into a corner and has made it extremely difficult for himself to pivot without becoming blatantly obvious.

I think most of Math's posts so far have sucked. I'm willing to entertain that they just suck cuz he had to sub into a jungle of a game and he's not able to parse it yet. If they continue to suck he can eat rope.

I really just want to work on finding one more villager for the block and then pushing that block through and anyone who gets in my way can die. If people think the block is unpure they can say it with their chest instead of making vague histrionics about townblocks or deepwolves. In my view the block wins the game for town, so if you're playing against what I believe to be town's win condition you can get chopped. If you think my view of the game is wrong then bring me reasons, I'm listening.

[joqiza]

Joqiza, how strong are you on johnny!scum? I’ll vote there if you’re very confident, but my concern is he really feels like a compromise slot, which I think both makes him more likely to be town and makes him a less useful flip if town compared to infinity/math

I'm at work rn, so will go into more detail this evening. My quick thoughts.

- I don't want Johnny hammered before he has the chance to respond.
- I think Johnny's occasional pop-ins are wolfy. I can case him this evening. Am I confident he'll flip maf? No, because he might be apathetic and detached town. But if we assume a game-winning townblock, then apathetic and detached town that votes against town's interests and refuses to re-evaluate is like, not that far away from being a wolf. Like there is really no difference other than town!Johnny has the miniscule chance to re-evaluate his position, which so far he has shown no sign of doing.
- Tbh I still think Johnny/Autumn are viable and Autumn's vote on him could potentially be WIFOM.
- Math has been bad but I'm still partial to the Kobaslot. There is one progression in particular which I'll outline this evening, where it feels like Koba felt they couldn't get scum!Super limmed, so wanted to lim her partners--then voted lilith, Super reacted, and Koba seized on that. This would be a fairly complex thought process to fake.

[joqiza]

In terms of who we'd bring into the block of me/Mena/Auro/Lilith as the fifth, I would be okay with Firebringer at the moment but this is the kind of read that is contingent on flips. If Johnny flips scum I think he might spew Kobaslot town.

[joqiza]

Personally, I have no issue re-examing townblocks each day and in fact find the concept helpful both in general sorting and in finding deepwolves. There's no requirement for anyone to call anything a "townblock" if they don't want to.

As of rn I intend to find a group of 4 people I believe are villagers and chop everyone else one by one. As I do so, if chopped slots starts flipping town, and the remaining teams within the shrinking PoE appear unviable, then this is my signal to re-examine the slots I have cleared. That is the way I play mafia.

[joqiza]

I would be at the top, obviously.

[joqiza]

In actuality I don't know and I feel like calling people low-charisma is kind of offensive so I'd rather refrain from phrasing it like that. I think Menalque is pretty charismatic, but I wouldn't have a strong ranking outside of that anyway. The less active / low-post counts such as Johnny have less "influence" over the game. Lilith probably has less influence than she would otherwise due to her activity.

[joqiza]

On the other hand, Menalque and I clearly don't have

that

much influence, since we couldn't get Autumn chopped when we were both focused on him.

[joqiza]

@Menalque

Here's the progression from Koba that I liked (a bit long):

{
500,

Koba says they won't be able to eliminate scum!Super d1

965,
966,

Koba thinks Super might be scum, but is looking outside

1006,

Koba votes lilith

1011,
1012,
1013,
1023,
1026,

Koba is gauging Super's response here

1028,

Koba thinks lilith/Super are partnered

1034,
1036,

Koba wants to lim lilith first because they don't think they can lim Super d1

1038,

Koba still appears to be evaluating their own read, though

1044,
1058,
1072,

Koba asks Super for a reads list

1080,
1082,
1096,
1106
}

Koba expressed a paranoia of Super, but acknowledged that they didn't think they could ever find eliminate her d1. When they voted lilith, they seemed to believe that Super's response was partner-indicative. They appeared to be trying to re-evaluate their own read, and asked Super for a reads list.

Koba has watched me catch scum!Super twice. Once while Koba and I were in a hydra together. Both times, I caught Super because she demonstrated TMI about flipped slots.

This is a complex thought process for scum to fake. In addition to that, it is largely internal, they're not trying to show off their towny thought process, they're just scumhunting. And, based on my personal meta with them, I believe is likely they would have this thought process as town.

[joqiza]

Wdym by some bullshit? I think it was based on the fact that Koba was suspicious of Super already, and they thought that Super's reaction indicated that you were her partner.

I said I think Koba was scumhunting, I didn't say I think they were

good

at it.

[joqiza]

Lilith I think Koba probably did think you were scummy. They also expressed that they thought Super was scummy. What I'm saying is I think they thought Super's reaction indicated that you were her scum partner, and the fact that they then proposed going lilith -> super segues really well with the sentiment they expressed earlier about never being able to elim scum!Super d1 and having to go after her partners first.

[joqiza]

Someone please explain why Menal is a townread other than (oh just reread the pages). That very much looks like a wool over the eyes response when someone doesn’t like their reads questioned.

I am thinking Flopz/Johnny/AL/Menalque for my would elim pool.

There are many reasons, but one of the easiest ones is that Menalque got incredibly hostile earlier in the thread, in a way that, based on a post I saw by him in the Scummies Nominations Thread 2020, he would be much less willing to do as scum.

I think that pool is good otherwise.

My current theory is that Johnny vs. Autumn is actually SvS and this game is much easier than we're making it. scum!Autumn sees 3193 and votes Johnny to try to get their partner some towncred before they get chopped.

In this universe, the third would probably be Flopz, who's currently trying to move the hang onto chen. But this is contingent on scum!Autumn and scum!Johnny and the game would end before he gets resolved, anyway.

I think Johnny/Autumn are both good options and I think there's a decent chance both wagons scum. I think Johnny is a slightly better choice than Autumn for reasons I've stated.

[joqiza]

I think the whole "lynch X because it gives more information on a town flip" argument is wrong-headed at this point. We have 136 pages and 3000+ posts, if anything there is a problem of information overload.

[joqiza]

chenn you seem pretty chill about the fact Flopz is hard tunneling you rn

[joqiza]

Imho your reason toward Menalque town seems very superficial. Town and scum can both be toxic. A town player triggered me and the game ended up getting toxic destroying what was a very very good scum game and got lost in elo. Toxicity isn’t alignment indicative what’s said in that toxicity is. I have put it inside of a spoiler because of toxicity reasons and said user is banned.

Spoiler: Trigger warning talks of suicide

Had a deep wolf game in Heroes where myself and Nancy had town snowballed on mechanics. I suggested vigging a scumbuddy for cred. Another player suggested I kill myself in response. I responded authentically and things got bad. Toxicity is not alignment indicative

That being said I like your elim pool and am down for any of those, but I kinda don’t want to hammer unless y’all are okay with me reading over the 24 hour period. If you’d rather me read today like some people are pushing the game would need to slow down a lot to support that.

I'm sorry to hear about your experience. I agree that toxicity in and of itself is not alignment indicative.

My home site is very toxic. People there know each other very well and arguments in games often veer into personal territory. Games are also not well-moderated there which exacerbates the problem. As a result, I've gotten pretty used to dealing with and parsing through AtE.

I think Menalque's hostility earlier in the game was town-indicative because he was not expressing it for the purposes of self-preservation, he was expressing it because he was not able to effect a hang on a slot he was pushing. Assuming it is not SvS, this frustration is more likely to come from town with a genuine read feeling ignored than it is to come from scum who knows their read is incorrect. You can read the section itself when you get a chance and give your own thoughts.

Or you can skip it, if you want. There are probably better reasons to TR him. That argument was just easily available and required less in the way of explanation.

[joqiza]

Before I read up from page *checks notes* 75.... I'll say my quick off the dome takes on everyone

Mena - effort and logic both good, unwilling to vote
Lili - seems more solvey than most anyone from my recollection. Unwilling to vote
Koba - in no way is this kobas scum game. Would rather not vote, but I do think the game gets easier with them gone so like I wouldn't hate if we limmed them anyway
Infin - got that LHF property a bit. Seems like everyone's down to lim. Would rather not vote
Auro - honestly my eyes kinda glaze over at Auros posts. Might vote pending case/conversation
Super - high effort, high anxiety. Reaction tests and bad blood with koba make it hard for me to parse what they're thinking even if they make outright statements. Would vote
Firebringer - annoying on purpose, not outside scum range from what I've heard but i'm trusting my gut here, would not vote
Flopz - did that meta dive on em, unwilling to vote
Chenny - manic nervous energy. Like they got called out early and have struggled to act natural for the rest of the game. Would vote

Johnny: Mena's logic is good
Mena: Infinity is scum
Johnny: Infinity seems like LHF, wouldn't vote them

"in no way is this koba's scum game"

This is said while Koba is tunneling Mena.

[joqiza]

I'm sort of giving up on being able to keep up with this game in its entirety and am going into quick takes mode.

VOTE: joqiza

Here to answer questions

Votes me directly after a replacement and in reaction to two other people voting him.

[joqiza]

I mean they're all better than me, but I can't really say I've found any of those slots scummy. I think voting infinity would give more info than me, though.

VOTE: Infinity

What consequences?

Comes back, votes the other leading wagon, doesn't elaborate on thoughts, expresses that they won't have time to catch up on the game.

[joqiza]

It would be one thing if like, the other slots at the table were considerably scummy, but I think every other slot besides Autumn Leaves has towntold to some degree.

A Johnny scum flip probably wins the game because his reads list spews a bunch of people town and a Johnny town flips means you have 136 pages to reread where exactly 3 players at the table had TMI of his alignment.

It really should not be this hard.

[joqiza]

I’ve reconsidered due to joqiza wanting him more

I feel like my big concern is twofold:

(1) johnny has been a pretty easy slot to wagon and has compromise-y vibes to me, that means he could be town despite seeming p superficially scummy

If he is just scum, great, I think odds are town wins

The concern, point (2) is that if he /is/ town then there’s potentially another slogfest of a day tomorrow where johnny!town (when he seems like a v likely partner for infinity at this point) weakens the case on infinity!scum slightly and I think the question of killing in (you/me/infinity) remains on the table and that can’t be fully resolved before lylo if it is wrong that there’s at least one scum in those three names. Whereas if infinity!town then we can still kill you tomorrow and then if I’m wrong on you too I can be eliminated on D3 to force te-evaluation in time for lylo instead of me just being lylo bait

(1) I don't really have an answer to this and maybe you'll end up being right but I would rather not overthink the wagon dynamics and instead just smite the scummiest slot. Especially cuz Johnny's partner can be on his wagon here.

(2) I mean the universe you're proposing here has Johnny going to lylo if you're wrong, and if HE'S also town that's obviously a disaster, so it's not like we can really get around this.

I really think we maybe just live in the easy universe cuz a lot of slots have towntold to some degree and the slots in my PoE are scummy and when you have that simultaneous dynamic good things usually come from hammering the scummy slots. I'm willing to vote Autumn if you absolutely need to resolve there but I like how he bent the knee and I feel like if Johnny/Autumn are both town and we're living in the harder universe I'm more likely to figure that out with Autumn than I would with Johnny.

[joqiza]

I don't feel like anyone's actually understood 3359 yet. I'm pointing out a complex and fluid thought process. Koba demonstrated

1) paranoia of Super
2) belief that they could not evaluate nor lim her d1
3) a desire to find her partners first if she was indeed scum.

The progression I linked shows all of these things. It's not unfakeable but it does read like a villager. I would rather eliminate the players whose thought processes to me feel artificial.

[joqiza]

Welcome though, Shirou.

[joqiza]

My argument isn't that Koba's play is "messy" and therefore town. I'm saying their messiness is NAI and, separate from that, I found a progression from them that I actually like quite a bit and I'm frustrated that it's getting ignored.

Also my top SR at the moment hard spews Koba town.

I will look into the Nancy thing.

[joqiza]

Joqiza...this is the kind of excuse I would give to keep hedging on a player, but since I don't want to actually confront them since I would be lying through my teeth, I just deflect with "It's still D1", or "The setup incentives finding the partners".

Read my 2971.

[joqiza]

Shirou I also want you to look at 3192 and 3193 when you get a chance.

[joqiza]

Okay at this point y'all vote wherever you want. This game is exhausting because I had to do an immense amount of work to bring around Firebringer when he just had a hard-on for Menalque and then he immediately subs out and I'm basically stuck at square zero with the sub. If Koba ends up flipping scum then I apologize but I think the team is just Johnny/Autumn fr and Johnny in particular would hard spew Koba town.

Like I can get the idea behind linking every slot that plays anti town but I would rather just lim the slot I think is scum.

If we're talking "anti town" Johnny is problem numero uno anyway, ignoring his slot is just as problematic as ignoring Koba, if not more.

[joqiza]

Joqiza why does scum!johnny imply town!koba?

Spoke about this in my earlier posts, but Johnny townlocked Koba way too easily in a way which implied he had TMI about koba's slot (scum!johnny probably wants to keep town!Koba around since they're -town EV). johnny also recently seemed inquisitive as to if mathblade was scummy implying they were considering pouncing on a lim opportunity.

[joqiza]

Shirou if you're so convinced DkKoba is scum how do you feel about Johnny's comment where he said "in no way is this DkKoba's scum game"

[joqiza]

I think given that Johnny is scummy his read there most likely comes from a position of TMI knowing Koba's alignment. I think any villager considering Koba would be doing what Shirou is doing rn i.e. considering between the options 1 and 2 that he outlined. I concede the possibility that Johnny/Koba might be teamed but given Johnny's general treatment of the slot, in the event of a scum!Johnny flip I would say TMI. In any case if you find the comment suspicious there, which you should, you lim Johnny first.

[joqiza]

No one has given me any reason to townread Johnny outside of wagon dynamics which I think is a bad reason to townread someone in a Black Flag setup.

I think Koba was probably a villager they were just a nuisance. I don't think I can explain it any more than I already have it just comes down to how I read their thought process and the context I have on them.

I will vote Johnny or Autumn today I'm not voting outside of those two.

[joqiza]

@Johnny

What made you so confident Koba was town?

[joqiza]

@johnny can you walk me through your read on my slot? Have you read any of my posts / did it change your impression of the slot any?

[joqiza]

Tbh Shirou I don't get what you're saying

[joqiza]

I don't really have any desire to cape for johnny at this point tbh but I'll admit that some of the posts around the time and following the "hammer" made me a bit nervous.

Specifically autumn posting a full reads list doesn't feel like deflated scum which is what I'd expect if Johnny/autumn were teamed, and mathblade's "lunch gotta go but something stinks" comment

[joqiza]

VOTE: Autumn Leaves

I might switch back to Johnny but I want time to read again this evening. Sorry for delaying it further just want to go over these last few pages a bit closer and don't have time rn.

[joqiza]

Autumn posted a reads list in 3777 where he's ranking ppl, sans johnny. But Johnny hadn't even been flipped yet.

[joqiza]

Ok maybe you're right and I'm getting paranoid I just want more time to go over it this evening. I'm still at work.

@Autumn wouldn't a ranking like that be at least somewhat contingent on what johnny flipped though? Is my point

[joqiza]

Ya ngl that comment makes me want to drop the hammer on him

[joqiza]

I mean maybe? I'm probably going to look at interactions more after the flip, but I wanted to get that out there while I was motivated. I don't think it'll have too big of an effect because johnny didn't have a ton of interactions with people and scum likely bussed but it's not 100%.

My concern is it feels like you were setting up for something but I'll get a better look in a bit. Maybe I'm just bugging idk

I feel like a lot of my reads are contingent on what johnny flips personally. Scum Johnny is probably +town Koba and +town chen. Town Johnny idk yet

[joqiza]

Give me like 20 min

[joqiza]

VOTE: Johnny

[joqiza]

One of my teammates wanted to ask the thread if there's anyone who knew johnny wasn't hammered earlier

[joqiza]

It's at E-1

[joqiza]

Wdym Mena/AL shouldn't be touched? @Shirou

[joqiza]

I don't understand the logic behind not touching Autumn when he might be scum, but we can discuss it further tmrw ig.

[joqiza]

Shirou I'd rather just focus on getting townreads, because if AL is scum the "last town" we choose might just be their partner.

Him being not partnered with someone I already think is town does nothing for me

[joqiza]

And I would just counter that you don't know Mena/Autumn aren't partnered, you only think they aren't ??

[joqiza]

Shirou maybe there's something I'm not understanding so I'll review your plan when I get a chance but I really can't see a way to justify keeping a scumread alive

Like yes if my reads are bad then who I think is scum might be town and vice versa, but I don't see why my non-teamreads would be immune to me just being wrong about things

[joqiza]

Okay we can talk it out later.

To be frank Shirou if we keep Autumn alive I don't want you also in the block because I think he's scummy and I'm suspicious of your motivations in wanting him alive.

[joqiza]

So Shirou. The issue I have with your plan is that for me, this "third player" to add to the block of me/lilith is already just Menalque.

So if possible I would want to find an additional not!SvS interaction that's not Mena/AL.

But I understand what you're saying in theory, I think.

[joqiza]

What prevents us from finding a similar pairing from the 160 or so pages of content before you outed this plan?

[joqiza]

Do you feel that no other pairing exists?

[joqiza]

@Shirou

I think what I'd like to see is you come to a conclusion on Mena/AL further than not!SvS, if you can. I'll give you time to finish reading and we can discuss then.

The relationship doesn't hold the same value to me because I TR Menalque. Of course town could not be partnered with scum--if my assumption of town!Menalque is right then the not!SvS relationship implies nothing.

I would feel more comfortable if we could reach some common ground on the Mena slot. As it is I remain suspicious of you arguing to keep my scumread alive, no matter how well justified logically the plan is from your perspective.

And I think it does make sense, from a perspective of not being sure about either Mena or AL's alignments, but being sure they aren't partnered. But this isn't quite the perspective I hold rn.

Either way we can talk it out tmrw w/ Johnny's flip. I'm just nervous about that and your plan concerns me a bit because I've been burned in the past by people who proposed "autowin with extra steps."

[joqiza]

I'm around for a bit, but gonna go to bed soon.

[joqiza]

I haven't done that much rr'ing yet tbh but there was one thing that really stuck out to me.

Yesterday Autumn posted 3777, which is like, a full reads list. This is before Johnny flipped which was one of the things concerned me, because I felt like reads at that moment in time should be at least somewhat contingent on Johnny's alignment, which we didn't know yet.

I asked him about this and in response he had 3843:

Ok maybe you're right and I'm getting paranoid I just want more time to go over it this evening. I'm still at work.

@Autumn wouldn't a ranking like that be at least somewhat contingent on what johnny flipped though? Is my point

I mean maybe? I'm probably going to look at interactions more after the flip, but I wanted to get that out there while I was motivated. I don't think it'll have too big of an effect because johnny didn't have a ton of interactions with people and scum likely bussed but it's not 100%.

the "scum likely bussed" kinda stands out there.

Johnny was pretty scummy at this point ig but in addition to everything I've already outlined in 3193 this makes me feel like Autumn knew Johnny's alignment.

The other slot I wanted to review was Flopz, who I remember was trying to move the hang off of Johnny/Autumn and onto chen.

[joqiza]

chen I keep listening to that audio clip trying to figure out what the last part is but I can't understand it lmao

[joqiza]

@Joqi

Then you think Johnny bussed Autumn Leaves (Johnny only voted you and Autumn Leaves in this game as far as I know), and Autumn Leaves early bussed Johnny, and scum!AL think we should take a look inside the wagon for a busser?

In that world, considering we're in Black Flag, don't you agree that it's necessary for scum!AL partner to be outside of the wagon?

I mean, the timing of how it played out was Johnny and Autumn both soft defending each other throughout the game, both slowly getting cornered into the PoE, me outing a teamread on them in 3193, and then after that Autumn and Johnny voted each other. Which I don't really see as clearing given that I pretty much insisted on dueling Johnny/Autumn wagons.

[joqiza]

@Shirou Oh, I do think the third in the Johnny/Autumn universe is most likely off-wagon, but that's mainly just because I TR everyone else who was on-wagon.

I did intend to review Auro too but there was a part of one of Johnny's earlier reads lists that made me feel they might not be partnered:

Before I read up from page *checks notes* 75.... I'll say my quick off the dome takes on everyone

Mena - effort and logic both good, unwilling to vote
Lili - seems more solvey than most anyone from my recollection. Unwilling to vote
Koba - in no way is this kobas scum game. Would rather not vote, but I do think the game gets easier with them gone so like I wouldn't hate if we limmed them anyway

Infin - got that LHF property a bit. Seems like everyone's down to lim. Would rather not vote

Auro - honestly my eyes kinda glaze over at Auros posts. Might vote pending case/conversation

Super - high effort, high anxiety. Reaction tests and bad blood with koba make it hard for me to parse what they're thinking even if they make outright statements. Would vote
Firebringer - annoying on purpose, not outside scum range from what I've heard but i'm trusting my gut here, would not vote

Flopz - did that meta dive on em, unwilling to vote

Chenny - manic nervous energy. Like they got called out early and have struggled to act natural for the rest of the game. Would vote

Emphasis added is mine. This is why I suspect the Autumn & Flopz slots primarily. I think his read there is actually a decent look for Auro since the "eyes glazed over" thing usually comes from scum describing a town. Idk how good Johnny is at anti-spew, I'm kind of assuming as of rn that he was just playing blatantly.

[joqiza]

Shirou I'll review everything closer tomorrow, it's late for me.

One thing to think about is that in 2344 Johnny didn't want to vote either Mena/AL, in the universe you're proposing Johnny basically didn't bite at all at a TvT.

[joqiza]

The universe I'm proposing is even if AL is scum, his partner is still one of Auro / Flopz, and his posts about "scum bussed" should also point that out for you.

I mean, I agree. The universe I was considering was Autumn/Flopz, as I've said.

[joqiza]

I feel like both Autumn and Flopz would have rather had their presence on the Johnny wagon given Johnny going down was an eventuality anyway?

The impression I got was that Autumn and Johnny voted each other, than Flopz said he thought it was TvT and tried to move the votes off them to chen. I mean Flopz didn't try very hard, but I feel like if I were mafia and my partner was Johnny I wouldn't be very motivated, lol.

I guess if Autumn were gonna go ahead and bus it does make more sense to have both votes on the wagon, so that's a decent point and something to think about.

[joqiza]

I would like in that case, even if it's hard, to pick the off-wagon players to eliminate rather than AL, since this is Black Flag and we can ignore one scum, but if we are mistaken about AL by any chance, we lose our way to auto town win as I detailed early.

I'm going to go to bed now but we should discuss more tomorrow. Happy birthday btw.

[joqiza]

Please don't consider what someone with a literal 50% chance of being, in your perspective of scum!AL, the off-wagon partner, has to say.

Engaging with very likely scum candidates is a mistake. One of the best town players in site Elli never engaged with them, and they did it for a good reason. After you're confident enough of something like you seem to be of scum!AL, therefore that scum is likely off-wagon, I don't recommend engaging much with them at all.

This is only a suggestion though I guess. I'm just not in the mood of sitting here waiting for "politely" discussion with Auro about how scum would or not buss in Black Flag to finish.

The fact Auro is defending Flopz when he was voting him yesterday should already be a red flag.

Whether or not it makes me a better player or not I have always and will continue to always engage every player at the table with an open mind, including my scumreads. I've found this is the approach that works for me.

I understand your argument I think, but I'll have to review the Auro/Flopz team for myself. That will come tomorrow. I don't really see any rush.

Good night all.

[joqiza]

Of course it would be better in long-term to let the game play out, maybe even go for AL/Math today as most people seem to want, and just later finish with you/Flopz if it didn't win the game.

It's much more safeproof than this. Am I the kind of person that makes such a boring decision though? No.

I'm not sitting here for 2 ~ 6 more weeks for a game that I feel there's little chance I'm wrong. Time is my most valued asset. The unique thing that you can't really buy, trade or create in this world is time.

I'm fine giving myself a mechanically weaker position if it means it does save me weeks.

If you mean "short-term" as in "you're only thinking of the consequences to this game", I don't care about that.

I don't care about winning as scum anymore and if people would take those propositions more seriously when I'm town, that would be a win in my book.

It's not common for me to make those propositions I think though.

Please stop doing this. I play forum mafia because it allows me to play the game at my own pace, and given my RL commitments sometimes that happens over the course of several days. In general it also feels like you have been brushing my points aside and just trying to get me to do what you want to, which is not necessarily scum-motivated but really bothers me.

I need time to reconsider Auro and discuss with my team. I do think Auro's daystart is weird and his push on lilith is poorly articulated. I will probably do a pass-through of the game tonight with a look at the following teams:

{Autumn/Flopz}
{Auro/Flopz}
{Autumn/Firebringer(Shirou)}*

* the third one is my paranoid tinfoil and is why I'm not willing to entertain your proposal to rush things. I'm partial to the Firebringer slot in light of the Johnny flip, but your sheer insistence on keeping Autumn Leaves alive has skeeved me out a little bit as well as my teammate Hercule, who I want to discuss with further after I have the chance to review the game.

I hope you enjoy your birthday but I will be taking my time with this game.

[joqiza]

* the third one is my paranoid tinfoil and is why I'm not willing to entertain your proposal to rush things.

I'm offering myself and you think this can have negative connotation.

I expected this from your slot, so I'm not surprised, but I can't help but shake my head.

Shirou I have no interest in accepting your self-vote proposition.

And if you're correct that Auro is scum that's great, but it's a conclusion I would like to come to independently, once I'm not having to just pop in and read comments at work. Making passive aggressive comments towards me is not going to facilitate that process.

@Auro I will legit just vote you though if you don't start posting coherently. I ISO'd you to see if I'm missing something and you're acting like you have the fucking Panama papers. Stop posting emojis and make a case.

[joqiza]

Yeah the general vibe of this game is stressing me out so I won't be looking at it again until this evening at the earliest, and I'll be taking my time before I place a vote, like I said.

Whether or not I end up voting Auro today, I have no interest in chaining eliminations on the Firebringer slot. I get that you all think Shirou is Scum Jesus but Firebringer looks pretty decent in light of the Johnny flip. It was actually one of Firebringer's quiet comments that convinced me to switch from Autumn to Johnny in the first place.

@Auro I saw your case on lilith so will respond to that when I get time to sit down with it.

So far my approach has been working well for me and I see no reason to change what I'm doing. I have the responsibility of due dilligence to my slot's predecessor and to my teammates. If you're impatient, too bad. I don't think ~24 hours is really a big ask anyway.

[joqiza]

I'm going to be backreading the thread on and off throughout the evening.

General sense of my reads pre-backread:

Mena/Lilith/Chen
Koba-slot/Firebringer-slot
Auro/Flopz
Autumn

I don't really have it fully formed and these might be subject to change. Chen moved up a lot after the Johnny flip because of the way he hard OMGUSed Johnny. (I went through that progression somewhere in 3193.)

As of rn I'm open to eliminating Auro, but going to read through everything and talk with him again before placing my vote.

[joqiza]

Enjoyed meeting and playing with you all. hope to see you all in future games, whether as friend or as foe.

thanks you t-bone for hosting. i actually liked the setup and would be down to play it again sometime.

[joqiza]

You weren't bad Infinity! You kept your poise under pressure really well and ultimately this contributed a lot to Johnny getting yeeted over you. Given that me and my entire team were hard tunneling you for most of d1, I'm impressed that you were able to maintain your composure the way you did.