Open 802: Jungle Oligarchy [Game Over]


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Post Post #1616 (isolation #200) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:56 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1600, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1547, innocentvillager wrote:*flagging it as potential fake dumb tell since wolf definitely knows the answer to this question, but also why does townread wolf!Baltar take such a big risk by saying this*
meh VPB isn't that townread I take this back. NAI, could be genuine town!VPB or lolcatting wolf!VPB. It's a bit bizarre that town!him doesn't know this or think about it? But his reasoning for username being town was so bland yet confident for a multiball game
I don't know why you keep coming back to this point. Why are you so obsessed with whether I think username should be in play today? It really comes across as scum who is upset with how the PoE is going.

There are ample reasons to not worry about username today. Further, I have a decent amount of experience playing with him past and present. If I had bad vibes, I'd be all about that life. I don't currently. His PoE lines up with mine, and I know I'm town, so that is a point in his favor generally speaking.

Last, I saved you from getting yeeted when you replaced in. I also led the charge to yeet one scum, and actively backed the push for the other. If you're town, I'd expect you to be like 'clearly VP is at the very least playing in town's favor.' You wanting to shade people in the game who have done the most to catch scum is highly disconcerting.
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Post Post #1619 (isolation #201) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:13 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1617, innocentvillager wrote:you did not singlehandedly save me lmao, but sure your defense of me either way is slightly +town
I was absolutely the sway that saved you. Both Datisi and I were having misgivings, and when I unvoted, so did he. That was absolutely the death of your wagon. You should review that again perhaps.
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Post Post #1622 (isolation #202) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:20 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1618, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1616, VP Baltar wrote:You wanting to shade people in the game who have done the most to catch scum is highly disconcerting.
i think it's clear from 2180 that we have very different scumhunting processes, i think we both need to keep this in mind when reading each other

again doing a lot to catch mafia is NAI, not +wolf over town as you are implying above
I agree we play differently, and that's why I'm not jumping to conclusions with you.

I just fundamentally disagree with going tinfoil hat is the best approach today. To me, this setup is going to be won through effective trust alliances and PoEing the hell out of the scum. Look at the way I worked with Datisi this game. I definitely had it in my mind from D1 that he could have been a wolf, but working with him made way more sense than being paranoid as long as we we're catching scum.

I agree with your general premise today that catching a wolf is ideal. I just think focusing a search in the pool of people who have done the most to help the town wincon isn't the best strategy. There is a wolf in that scummier side of the pool. Yeeting that person is going to be easier, and will reveal if we need to look at certain players as partners.

To me, there is very little likelihood hood I'm going to want to yeet outside of {Bulge, Klyne, Ahoska} today. I would bet money there is a wolf in that group.
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Post Post #1623 (isolation #203) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:28 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1621, innocentvillager wrote:whatever, i can't fault you for not knowing that, but I'm currently in your PoE, so can you tell me what a convincing solve looks like without me in it?
Unfortunately, I can't completely clear anyone I feel like until we get a wolf flip. Even clidd, who is universally town read, could be scum here.

Anyhow, I've got coffee and hopped on a computer. Let's work through what a solve without you looks like.
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Post Post #1625 (isolation #204) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:43 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1624, innocentvillager wrote:but i am simply suggesting that we don't limit ourselves to the latter because i think it's more NAI, not necessarily that we need to eliminate in people who have been hitting mafia
Sure, that's fair and fine.

Ok, so I'm dumping some notes here so we can have a single point of reference to work from. I'm going to work on the assumption IV is town, but when it comes to this analysis, it doesn't look like that matters.

Day 1

final vote count:
galaxii
(7):
VP Baltar, Datisi, ben dover123
, Klyne, DeasVail, iamausername, clidd

nominations:

Klyne
bendover123
DeasVail



Day 2

final vote count:
DeasVail
(6): Klyne,
VP Baltar, Datisi,
The Bulge,
Titus
, Ahsoka

nominations:


VP Baltar

Klyne
Datisi



Day 3


final votecount:
MURDERCAT
(5): Ahsoka,
Titus,
The Bulge, iamausername, Klyne

nominations:


Ahsoka
Titus

iamausername
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Post Post #1626 (isolation #205) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:00 am

Post by VP Baltar »

It seems pretty unlikely that Klyne is mafia given that he was nominated on two days in a row and was on both mafia kills. I really hated his hammer yesterday, especially when I looked back. Both username and I were pressing murdercat to answer who the wolves are, since it is very likely mafia have figured it out. Then came along Klyne to end that day as fast as possible. That's exactly what I'd do if I was mafia in that situation and my partner wasn't doing the right thing and self hammering. But nomming yourself twice would be risky businesses. I could see once, but by D2 I'd assume wolves would have a decent idea on who the mafia is, so yeah.

I stand by my belief that Klyne!wolf could be the case here. Klyne's reads have been very bad from the start of the game, as were mine initially. The difference I see is that I adjusted as we went on and really starting to hone in on the scum. I'm not seeing that adjustment from Klyne...which is what town would do. I'm not going to speculate on who Klyne is an alt of, but my assumption this game is the same as iv's: FlavorLeaf. Trying not to let that cloud my judgement too much, because I would absolutely think Flavor would be better than that.

Regardless, Klyne to me has pretty high equity as a wolf based upon this game alone. It would also make sense for the mafia to try to put their wolf suspects in the lim pool because you could then figure out effectively who those people are.

If Klyne WERE a wolf, that would likely mean mafia didn't bus at all D1. (realizing I forgot to mark DV town in that vote count, whoops). That could point to either reluctant mafia, or people who have been flaky this game. Ahoska's slot might fit that bill. Would also explain them being first on murdercat perhaps. That yeet was pretty much a lock from D2, so may as well get straight on the wagon and try to get the cred, even though Ahoska had nothing serious to do with that push that I recall. (I'd need to fact check myself on that,...working from memory here).

---

So yeah, if I'm working from the assumption that iv is town, then the final wolf HAS to be in Bulge or username. My gut says Bulge here, but I've also gathered his RL has been a bit crazy this month, so that gives me a little bit of pause. Bulge would make a decent amount of sense as a Klyne buddy, I think . I'd want to ISO them together and see how they've interacted. I'd want to do the same with username if we flipped klyne and he was a wolf.
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Post Post #1628 (isolation #206) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:25 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1627, innocentvillager wrote:lol no ahsoka is flavor leaf, and ahsoka has admitted it

idk who klyne is alt of
oh haha, well that shows I have not been closely reading some of these giant posts during my work week. I'll reread today to make sure there's not stuff I've been missing while skimming.
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Post Post #1629 (isolation #207) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:32 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Ahoska as the last mafia makes a lot of sense then. Taly was very listless and out of his depth from the start of the game. Ahoska coming in and trying to take control of the mafia by bussing MC was the logical play.
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Post Post #1632 (isolation #208) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:23 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1631, innocentvillager wrote:flavor's distancing from MC was pretty crappy and soft

i think mafia!flavor really tries to storm up bulge or something on D3, yet he just kind of let the MC wagon happen
It was pretty inevitable though wasn't it? Username and I were both locked in on MC yesterday.

It's probably moot anyhow since we should yeet a wolf today. My inclination there is that Klyne has to be in either pairing with Bulge/username.
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Post Post #1637 (isolation #209) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:16 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Should we also ignore that you were calling Titus scum long after it was clear she was unlikely to be scum?

Why is Ahoska not the last mafia as compared to Bulge? Especially when you were apparently scum reading Taly?
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Post Post #1638 (isolation #210) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:17 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1637, VP Baltar wrote:Should we also ignore that you were calling Titus scum long after it was clear she was unlikely to be scum?

Why is Ahoska not the last mafia as compared to Bulge? Especially when you were apparently scum reading Taly?
This was at Klyne^
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Post Post #1640 (isolation #211) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:23 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Why is bulge specifically scum here?
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Post Post #1655 (isolation #212) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:02 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1654, The Bulge wrote:might check in later when I'm good and drunk. happy new years you mangy lot
Cheers!
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Post Post #1660 (isolation #213) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:59 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1659, innocentvillager wrote:happy new year all! this is a great plist and I like playing with you all
Here is to a joyful 2021!

<3 to all, even you scum butts
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Post Post #1670 (isolation #214) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:14 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1661, Ahsoka wrote:@VPB - when I was scum, I had you dancing around constantly.

I am never scum here.

I'm barely paying attention to this game some days.

Like, yeah.
Can we not with this braggy dumb shit. Personally, I find it very annoying when players gloat about winning games. I let you walk on some shit I shouldn't have because of self doubt and no experience with you.

I will push for your yeet immediately if you're going to make self meta defenses because it is scummy as fuck coming from you.
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Post Post #1672 (isolation #215) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:26 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1671, clidd wrote:Ah, I can't really help. I tried.

But I think I know what I must do to improve the odds.
Can't really help with what?
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Post Post #1673 (isolation #216) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 4:31 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1663, Ahsoka wrote:It's a reason I think you're a wolf. I don't even really understand why, it just feels like I'm being politically setup to be an eventual fade and in the POE of the gamestate, but in actuality, there is no POE right now. Nobody has a real case, this is a reset day.

This game is insanely political right now, where everyone has like "oh this player isn't scum" but like why?
This is complete AtE, and is a scummy mentality to boot.

"Someone make a case on me" is something that is much more likely to come from a scum mindset ready to defend.

Calling it "political" because you're outside the core town alliance is a lame semantics game meant to undermine any sort of trust people have toward each other. That has no town motivation as opposed to hunting scum effectively and proving your own towniness.
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Post Post #1688 (isolation #217) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:35 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1682, Ahsoka wrote:Let's 1v1 then if we must. I just reread the area where he was trying to towncase Klyne who he apparently thought was a FL alt, agreeing with IV on why that was an accurate analysis, and then completely dropping it and moving past the subject when IV corrected VPB.

VOTE: VPB
I was not town casing Klyne. Are you still drunk?

Also, it's funny you are calling me defensive when you're spamming the thread with AtE and cries about how you're being done dirty, when I haven't even made a real push on you.

I think you're most likely to be mafia, so you'll get dealt with in time. We are catching wolves today.

The more you spam and flail, the more obvious that is.
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Post Post #1695 (isolation #218) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:54 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1694, Ahsoka wrote:I guess you were pushing a Wolf, but the bolded is what I was thinking was a town case. You specifically were thinking they could be town based on you thinking they were me, but IV made the exact same case correctly, which you immediately try to move on from right after this post.
It's the exact opposite of what you're saying. I think Klyne is scummy, but I'm saying I was trying to check myself to not over scum read Flavor given our last game together. Obviously Klyne looks even worse now that I know that's not a factor. I've been saying pretty clearly he has high equity as a wolf.

You're so out to lunch on this argument.
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Post Post #1696 (isolation #219) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:55 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1689, Ahsoka wrote:@VPB - How would you like me to prove that I am town? What defense would be acceptable for you?
Help me catch an actual wolf today. Because my son, I can tell you with absolute certainty that it's not me.
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Post Post #1707 (isolation #220) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:02 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1698, Ahsoka wrote:
In post 1695, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1694, Ahsoka wrote:I guess you were pushing a Wolf, but the bolded is what I was thinking was a town case. You specifically were thinking they could be town based on you thinking they were me, but IV made the exact same case correctly, which you immediately try to move on from right after this post.
It's the exact opposite of what you're saying. I think Klyne is scummy, but I'm saying I was trying to check myself to not over scum read Flavor given our last game together. Obviously Klyne looks even worse now that I know that's not a factor. I've been saying pretty clearly he has high equity as a wolf.

You're so out to lunch on this argument.
I literally stated I was wrong on that post right before you posted.

Why is that the only thing you brought up, and why did you ignore trying to show examples of your misrepping of me?
Because it was a bullshit point that shows you are flailing for anything. I'm drinking mimosas and chilling with some people right now, so I don't have time to get into a spam war at the moment.

My point is if you're town, you need to check yourself. I've already shown you're on some clown shit, so eat a little humble pie and reorient to prove you're town. He'll, even if you are mafia, let's work together and catch a wolf today.
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Post Post #1713 (isolation #221) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:06 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1704, Ahsoka wrote:VPB's ignorance of my asking for the AtE is really bad, alongside the flip on me after stating my town read on IV/Bulge.
Your "political" comment and crying for a case on you and saying "I'm better than this as scum" are all AtE.

Dude, you know my job is interviewing people, right? I have a good sense for when people are being fake and manipulative.

Pedit again 3 times: please stop spamming.
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Post Post #1721 (isolation #222) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:19 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1717, Ahsoka wrote:And 1100 posts in that game we played together compared to my 176 here, don't send that fake "quit spamming" stuff at me.
It is spamming when it is NYD and most people are chilling. I've already spent more energy on this than I would like this morning. Just chill and I will be happy to respond to you. But when I have to click submit post rapidly 3 times just to get a single thought through, you're clearly spamming.
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Post Post #1722 (isolation #223) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:21 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1719, Ahsoka wrote:I am actively in this game, and analyzing, and know I'm coming up on a full solve, and you're trying to do everything in your power to make sure I don't gain momentum here.
AtE again. If it weren't for me, poor Ahoska could totally solve the game. Just work toward the solve without playing the victim.
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Post Post #1726 (isolation #224) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:39 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Are you hunting mafia or wolves? Who are the wolves in your scenario if it is not me?
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Post Post #1730 (isolation #225) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:04 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1729, Ahsoka wrote:I'm solving the game, not individual slots at this point.
As I have been doing. As everyone should be doing.

We need to have town trust to win this outright.

I think Klyne makes a lot of sense as wolf too. That's sort of where I'm leaning as the optimal yeet today because many of the wolf pairs I see as possibilities have Klyne as a common denominator. I'm less certain on Bulge town than you are, but I think if Bulge can find some more time to interact with the game, I should be able to get a solid read.
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Post Post #1735 (isolation #226) » Sat Jan 02, 2021 7:13 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1729, Ahsoka wrote:If VPB is town, I think Clidd would be mafia, and Klyne/Username are wolves.
Thinking about this. So iv is your strongest town read this game?
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Post Post #1744 (isolation #227) » Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:04 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Bulge, what do you think of Ahoska?
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Post Post #1755 (isolation #228) » Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:49 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1753, The Bulge wrote:
In post 1744, VP Baltar wrote:Bulge, what do you think of Ahoska?
I think there is less of a gimmick there than FL thinks. which is to say, I think a large amount of his playstyle across several different alts revolves around being easily mimicable as either alignment and being brash enough to attract the attention he needs to work with. I'll give him an honest readover when I have the time but I don't lean strongly one way or the other atm. I probably won't want to yeet that today tho.
I'd mostly like to hear your assessment of his solve.
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Post Post #1764 (isolation #229) » Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:37 am

Post by VP Baltar »

I really don't have interest in username here. You think I'm being pocketed iv?

I
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Post Post #1767 (isolation #230) » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:08 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1766, innocentvillager wrote:i don't think VPB-clidd-username was ever really a decent townblock though, idk im just paranoid of everyone at this point tho.
I'm sure Im biased because I'm on the inside of that block, but those are the people I've felt most confident in as we've yeeted some scum. Clidd not so much for his reads, but for his complete aloofness actually.

Nothing is locked of course because we will never have enough info, but it is hard for me to see a scenario where Klyne isn't a wolf at this point. That seems to be the safest play from my perspective.

I was kind of waiting to see if people made a convincing case that he is town, and it just isn't there. I feel like you're the most solvey person right now, but your reads and final direction seem off to me. Idk.
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Post Post #1771 (isolation #231) » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:37 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

This is the post where I weighed out the possibilities of Klyne as each alignment.

I also weighed him as town, but his inability to adapt his reads as the game was changing make me skeptical he was coming from a town mindset.

So I think the big picture is that his actions and appearance on the kill lists most align with him being a wolf.
In post 1626, VP Baltar wrote:It seems pretty unlikely that Klyne is mafia given that he was nominated on two days in a row and was on both mafia kills. I really hated his hammer yesterday, especially when I looked back. Both username and I were pressing murdercat to answer who the wolves are, since it is very likely mafia have figured it out. Then came along Klyne to end that day as fast as possible. That's exactly what I'd do if I was mafia in that situation and my partner wasn't doing the right thing and self hammering. But nomming yourself twice would be risky businesses. I could see once, but by D2 I'd assume wolves would have a decent idea on who the mafia is, so yeah.

I stand by my belief that Klyne!wolf could be the case here. Klyne's reads have been very bad from the start of the game, as were mine initially. The difference I see is that I adjusted as we went on and really starting to hone in on the scum. I'm not seeing that adjustment from Klyne...which is what town would do. I'm not going to speculate on who Klyne is an alt of, but my assumption this game is the same as iv's: FlavorLeaf. Trying not to let that cloud my judgement too much, because I would absolutely think Flavor would be better than that.

Regardless, Klyne to me has pretty high equity as a wolf based upon this game alone. It would also make sense for the mafia to try to put their wolf suspects in the lim pool because you could then figure out effectively who those people are.

If Klyne WERE a wolf, that would likely mean mafia didn't bus at all D1. (realizing I forgot to mark DV town in that vote count, whoops). That could point to either reluctant mafia, or people who have been flaky this game. Ahoska's slot might fit that bill. Would also explain them being first on murdercat perhaps. That yeet was pretty much a lock from D2, so may as well get straight on the wagon and try to get the cred, even though Ahoska had nothing serious to do with that push that I recall. (I'd need to fact check myself on that,...working from memory here).

---

So yeah, if I'm working from the assumption that iv is town, then the final wolf HAS to be in Bulge or username. My gut says Bulge here, but I've also gathered his RL has been a bit crazy this month, so that gives me a little bit of pause. Bulge would make a decent amount of sense as a Klyne buddy, I think . I'd want to ISO them together and see how they've interacted. I'd want to do the same with username if we flipped klyne and he was a wolf.
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Post Post #1774 (isolation #232) » Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:04 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1772, iamausername wrote:
In post 1767, VP Baltar wrote: I was kind of waiting to see if people made a convincing case that he is town, and it just isn't there. I feel like you're the most solvey person right now, but your reads and final direction seem off to me. Idk.
why does wolf Klyne kill Titus?

that's the sticking point for me

i just feel like if Klyne is wolf i'm dying every time there.
I see two possibilities that could be equally true.

1) the kill was meant to make town!username look like a wolf. Titus had fought with so many people by that point in the game, it was no longer credible she would be a wolf.

2) you actually are a wolf, and Ahoska is mafia -- a fact known by the wolves at this point. Wolves did not want to kill Ahoska because that would have hurt their numbers more than it would have helped today. (I think I'm correct on this point as a possibility, but maybe I'm missing something).
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Post Post #1787 (isolation #233) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:17 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

VOTE: klyne

I'm actually ready to do this. Klyne is absolutely a wolf and I'm tired of waiting for him to actually scum hunt.
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Post Post #1789 (isolation #234) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:35 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1788, PageTopAndy wrote:
In post 1786, Klyne wrote:
In post 1775, Ahsoka wrote:I am town here.

I had 6 scum games in a row, this was my first town game in a while.
I LEGITIMATELY BELIEVE YOU AND THINK YOURE IN BURNOUT IN GENERAL WITH MAFIA

I DONT HAVE THE ENERGY TO GO BACK INTO PARAGRAPH THIS THIS THIS THIS MODE SO WE'RE BACK TO THIS BABY

WHAT ABOUT ME AND YOU START THE REVOLUTION AND VOTE CLIDD, I ACTUALLY DONT WANNA READ FUCK WORDS
you okay buddy? what is this about?
It's a schtick he is doing. Don't worry about the caps too much
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Post Post #1792 (isolation #235) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:51 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1790, innocentvillager wrote:vp you agree with me that Klyne/username are not partners?
I think generally that makes sense.
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Post Post #1794 (isolation #236) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:23 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1793, innocentvillager wrote:it looks like your wolf solve is exclusively Klyne/Bulge then? based on your earlier post too? if not can you update us where you stand on that?
That's most probable. In this setup, nothing is guaranteed. I'm just most confident Klyne is scum here. He has stopped solving the game.
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Post Post #1797 (isolation #237) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:59 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1796, innocentvillager wrote:gth I don’t buy it but I will try to go in with a clear slate
Don't buy what?
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Post Post #1799 (isolation #238) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:45 am

Post by VP Baltar »

I led a last minute speed wagon on galaxii mafia at the end of D1.

Username cased Murdercat D2 (I think?), and we successfully yeeted him D3.

There have been a lot of replacements this game, so it's a lot to track.
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Post Post #1806 (isolation #239) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:27 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Thanks for putting that events post together iv. Strong town vibes from that level of effort.

Iv, are you townreading Ahoska? I'm very confused why you are aligning with him when he is very obviously further on the scum side of thing.
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Post Post #1807 (isolation #240) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:31 am

Post by VP Baltar »

The problem I'm seeing is town players are likely to have strong opinions of the final solve given each of our positions and townread make it more likely for our solves to feel correct.

iv, I think we have been aligning, which is great. I will wait for your review of Klyne and Bulge. Ultimately though, I think we need to align somewhat in our potential solve today. I'm willing to compromise, but I'm very hesitant to prioritize Ahoska over clidd, who I think was very transparently town.
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Post Post #1809 (isolation #241) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:01 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1808, innocentvillager wrote:why is he "very obviously further on the scum side of thing"?
I just really have a bad taste in my mouth from his interaction with me. He was trying to play the victim and say demonstrably false things until I pushed back (like that I was town casing Klyne because I thought he was an FL alt). I know my alignment. I know my play in this game. The fact Ahoska isn't trying to work with me on what feels like a genuine solve is huge alarm bells for someone who is firmly inside my PoE. This is also partially what I mean by each town player is going to have strong feelings about their solve. I fully acknowledge I could be biased here based upon my own town reads.

iv wrote:i don't know what this means, can you explain? i certainly don't have a strong opinion on the final solve
Maybe I'm projecting? I guess from where I'm sitting, I have people who I've seen as playing much more toward the town wincon or who I have had pretty significant townvibes from for long periods of the game (username, clidd/Andy, and now you).

That leaves a very small pool of potential scum. I think other town players could feel the same, but their solves may look different than mine. It doesn't help for town players to fight to the death over who has the correct final solve right now. We need to find where those solves overlap on a wolf and yeet that person I think.

Does that make sense?

iv wrote:how have we been aligning...? i just called out username scum and your Bulge/Klyne solve an unlikely pairing gth, and you think we align?
This speaks to my point above. I think we've been aligning in the sense that we are working off each other to build trust, even if our reads are very different. I'm thinking about this similar to how I handled Datisi when I was suspicious of him. So I see us aligning in the sense of trying to find each other's alignment and hopefully build trust if there are town vibes there. Our solves are far apart right now, but I think if we can do the former, we can find an agreeable yeet today.

I'm not opposed to username I guess (especially when it is harder for me to read him as he fades into the background), but that's a big compromise from my viewpoint.
ahoska wrote:what does any of these have to do with "prioritizing Ahsoka over clidd"?
What I'm saying is that you seem very open to Ahoska's solve, which fundamentally I think is highly incorrect. I know my alignment is town, so that is strike 1. I do think clidd came across as clueless town all game, and that's very hard to fake as scum. So that's strike 2. Ahoska's solve is dependent upon clidd scum in some ways, so that's what I mean by prioritizing.
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Post Post #1811 (isolation #242) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:06 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1810, iamausername wrote:VP, what do you see as the most likely wolf team that doesn't include Bulge?
I guess you & klyne. I mean, could be clidd here? That's a tinfoil consideration that wouldn't be my real priority for today though.

To me, there absolutely has to be at least one wolf in bulge or Klyne, so focusing there makes sense.
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Post Post #1813 (isolation #243) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:31 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1812, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1792, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1790, innocentvillager wrote:vp you agree with me that Klyne/username are not partners?
I think generally that makes sense.
what happened to this?
Are you starting to see yet why my solve makes the most sense?
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Post Post #1815 (isolation #244) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:13 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1814, PageTopAndy wrote:So if Klyne is a wolf why do you think they killed Titus N3? Wouldn't that make him seem like the scum counter wagon?
Titus had been wagoned by so many people it was starting to be obvious she was town. I think that could be a reason.
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Post Post #1820 (isolation #245) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:23 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1817, Ahsoka wrote:Klyne and IV also brought up possibility of VPB being wolf, so the obviously further on scum side of thing line is just absolutely only there to discredit.
The general consensus is that you are the last mafia.
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Post Post #1821 (isolation #246) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:30 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1819, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1813, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1812, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1792, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1790, innocentvillager wrote:vp you agree with me that Klyne/username are not partners?
I think generally that makes sense.
what happened to this?
Are you starting to see yet why my solve makes the most sense?
you didn’t answer my question lol

you just agreed with me klyne/username isn’t the solve

But it’s next on your list If bulge is town?
Yeah man. I don't think your analysis precludes anything 100% of the time. I mean, you're asking me to argue a hypothetical world where bulge flips town. I'd obviously need to reconsider the board then. It'd be username and Andy as possibilities at that point if I'm still presuming you want me to auto assume you're town in that hypothetical scenario. I'm not scum, so who is possibly left in that situation? User or clidd. And if you're asking me to pick here who has a slightly better chance in that scenario, I'd say username is better equipped to fake the game he played than clidd is.

In a real scenario, I'd reconsider all my reads in Xylo, including you. There are a lot of ifs there, including what happens today and who the kill is.
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Post Post #1825 (isolation #247) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:01 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1823, innocentvillager wrote:is the probability that username is mafia higher or lower than the probability username/Klyne is the solve?

nothing is 100% but I think based on how D1 went it’s like almost impossible. can you come up with a world for why he stays on his partner Klyne at 5 votes a piece on D1, with one other buddy?? Praying that someone will hammer Titus or start a new flash wagon? like no, it just doesn’t happen, not 100%, but still

it’s also theoretically possible username is mafia who bussed Murdercat! I’m certainly not 100% sure he’s not mafia. But I am ruling it out because it’s just kind of dumb.
Yeah, like i said, I generally agree with what you said. I'm not following what the disagreement is here.

Bussing a mafia buddy in that scenario after galaxii got rolled is an easier call to make than not flinching in a bussing game as a wolf on D1.

BUUUTTTTTTT

The most likely scenario there is that username is just town and my solve is right.
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Post Post #1831 (isolation #248) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:49 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1828, Ahsoka wrote:I really think Klyne is probably town here
Based on what?
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Post Post #1833 (isolation #249) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:02 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Klynes general knowledge of the game state?
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Post Post #1837 (isolation #250) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:38 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1836, Ahsoka wrote:
In post 1830, Ahsoka wrote:
In post 1829, innocentvillager wrote:why is Klyne town? they were in one of your solves a bit ago
I don't think Klyne/VPB are wolves together anymore. I was pushing them as a team, but I don't think I was right. Klyne vs VPB passed the point of me thinking they are doing scum theatre.
In post 1831, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1828, Ahsoka wrote:I really think Klyne is probably town here
Based on what?
also...like...I totally answered this to IV right before
So what?
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Post Post #1839 (isolation #251) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:41 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Or put more finely, what you're claiming is an answer to my question is an indirect response to iv. What is the point of you saying that? You think I'm scummy for asking you a direct question?

Pedit- @ahoska
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Post Post #1845 (isolation #252) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:55 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1844, Ahsoka wrote:Klyne kept pushing me acting like I had been calling him a wolf when I have been specifically calling him not a wolf the majority of this day.
Why does that make him town? Wouldn't that seem scummy?
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Post Post #1848 (isolation #253) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:58 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1843, Ahsoka wrote:It was just an eye roll because it feels like you're actively trying to fluff up reasons to fade me.
Not the case at all. I apologise if I'm being redundant. You're correct that iv asked that question. Your answer seemed indirect, so that is likely why I didn't register it.

I'm not doing things just to piss you off or put on some show. I asked you because I really wanted to know. If you're town here, I want to sync up. Your reads are so out of line with mine that I have to try to get you to realize you're off base if you're town.
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Post Post #1851 (isolation #254) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:35 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1850, Ahsoka wrote:who are you wolf pushing? Klyne/Bulge?
Yes
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Post Post #1852 (isolation #255) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:40 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1849, Ahsoka wrote:You're saying I'm scum, how are they supposed to be in line?
I don't expect us to be perfectly aligned. I'm not with anyone that I know of. Possibly username, but we have slightly different feelings on priorities.

My point is when you're saying 2/3 of my lean towns are scum (plus me), and 2/3 of my lean scums are town, with zero effort to try to understand my viewpoint, I'm going to have a strong conclusion from that.

Maybe we are talking past each other though. Maybe clidd/Andy is the last mafia and the cluelessness is just a scum adrift. But there is no reality that I see where you and I are both town, and there isn't at least one wolf in Bulge/Klyne.
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Post Post #1863 (isolation #256) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:09 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1860, Ahsoka wrote:This is why I don’t play Opens.
Why?
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Post Post #1864 (isolation #257) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:10 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1859, Ahsoka wrote:It ended my 2 and a half year undefeated streak, and then I just kept rolling scum time after time after time.
Non game note, this sounds like exactly why I took a long hiatus. I was so tired of getting bad rolls. Good on you for playing through it
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Post Post #1870 (isolation #258) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:55 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1865, innocentvillager wrote:vp please tell me you are town this game and ahsoka is wrong because i just don't see ahsoka as wolf here
I am definitely town. I think that is pretty obvious given my level of effort this game. I replaced into a slot that was getting wagoned actively, yeeted a scum, backed another scum yeet, and have been transparent about my reads and reasoning all game, pushed others to solve, etc.

If there is something you want to ask me to help comfort you on this front, I'm here. The only thing more I think I can do is just say look at how people who know me are reading me. Datisi and username both say I'm town. Titus I think came around on me before getting iced.

I'm trying to town as hard as I can this game (which is probably not helpful for me when I do draw scum because I don't think I can fake this well), but what can I do to reassure you?
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Post Post #1871 (isolation #259) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:06 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1869, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1868, The Bulge wrote:things are not good. i know. this will be my last game for a while while i figure some stuff out.
:( take care of yourself man

mafia is mentally taxing and time consuming and on top of tough RL it can be too much
+1

Mafia is hard and you should take care of yourself first and foremost
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Post Post #1875 (isolation #260) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:20 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1873, PageTopAndy wrote:
In post 1802, innocentvillager wrote:
  • VP Baltar
    has the
    brilliant
    idea of wagoning the "previously scummy
    Battle Mage
    spot and now
    galaxii
    who was probably new and struggling to fake content".
    Datisi
    seconds this, and from there the flashwagon in the following order nails mafia:
    galaxii
    (7):
    VP Baltar
    ,
    Datisi
    ,
    ben dover123
    ,
    Klyne
    ,
    DeasVail
    ,
    iamausername
    ,
    clidd
    ()
  • galaxii
    flips mafia and
    Klyne
    ,
    ben dover123
    ,
    DeasVail
    get nominated N1
    .
    ben dover123
    gets chosen for NK.
Only other thing that comes to mind is that I found your word choice to be a bit exaggerated but I went past that because I don't think that it means anything.
Hahaha, Datisi is screaming in the dead thread at this wording since he was poking around there. I was just the first to run with it
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Post Post #1876 (isolation #261) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:21 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Klyne is still a bad puppy btw. He doesn't have an excuse for flaking from the thread once pressure got real.
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Post Post #1877 (isolation #262) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:32 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1872, PageTopAndy wrote:
In post 1866, innocentvillager wrote:i'd like Andy to give some more thoughts, i think mafia is likely down to just him and Ahsoka at this point
VP/Username/IV have been the only people who seem like they have been trying to solve since I entered the game. Add me to that group and I just know who all the scum are, seems a bit easy but if the other three aren't going to start providing that content then I only have one solve that it could possibly be.
Who should we yeet from that scum group? Which one are you most confident on?
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Post Post #1882 (isolation #263) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:20 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1878, innocentvillager wrote:are you thinking about switching your vote to someone else?
I'm open possibly to bulge, but I'm more confident in Klyne.

You're that confident in username as a wolf?
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Post Post #1883 (isolation #264) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:21 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1881, The Bulge wrote:lmfao
Someone probably should save that vote count for reference next time this setup is run.
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Post Post #1891 (isolation #265) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:09 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

I still don't get your reasons for thinking Klyne is unlikely as a wolf here.

Where the hell is username?
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Post Post #1894 (isolation #266) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:05 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1892, PageTopAndy wrote:Obviously me basing my reads on activity is not the best evidence so I'd like to expand upon something I have noticed. Something that has popped into my head is a scary yet small chance that the wolf team is IV/VP and I need your help by answering a question(s) as honestly as possible. This is probably different that what you're used to on this site but would the two of you be willing to do that for me?
Hit me with them Qs
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Post Post #1896 (isolation #267) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:11 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1895, PageTopAndy wrote:Do you ever feel nervous/anxious when playing mafia?
For sure. I think it happens as either alignment. I don't like getting yeeted or letting my team down. I would say I'm more likely to feel that way as scum though just because it is more challenging.
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Post Post #1901 (isolation #268) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:51 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

No, I think that's just actually funny. Datisi would def want some credit on that one
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Post Post #1903 (isolation #269) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:53 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 731, Datisi wrote:i was the first one to bring that idea forward!!!
For reference, Andy, this is from when I was joking with Datisi about it
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Post Post #1909 (isolation #270) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:11 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1905, Klyne wrote:ask yourself who the fuck my partner is
I've said multiple times who your partner could be. Pretending like that's not the case doesn't change it.

Also, talking about how you can't be mafia is not proof you aren't a wolf.
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Post Post #1910 (isolation #271) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:29 am

Post by VP Baltar »

One thing that is clear today is the wolves are very scared to vote together for fear of getting caught today
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Post Post #1912 (isolation #272) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:31 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Town wagons definitely happen. That's why I've been trying all day to get the towniest players aligned and pointed in a direction that makes sense. Fighting only allows the scum to push bad ideas and a rushed misfade at deadline
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Post Post #1917 (isolation #273) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 6:45 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1914, Ahsoka wrote:I really don't understand the Mafia read on me by people. I just don't think the way Murdercat and I interacted really ever should be seen as something that is actually coming as a team.
I will definitely reread this when it comes time to look at who is mafia.

I am really only focused on hitting a wolf today. You could be mafia or you could be town here. I don't believe you're a wolf. For me, sorting that last mafia accurately is not a top priority right now. You're in my poe, but I can promise you I'll do a full review of the facts when it is time for that.
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Post Post #1921 (isolation #274) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:16 am

Post by VP Baltar »

If you have a bomb, drop it. We don't want to rush at deadline
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Post Post #1926 (isolation #275) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:17 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1923, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1920, Ahsoka wrote:I felt like it was always going to end up being Klyne or Bulge, as much as I wanted VPB, but if you town read VPB, then that's a good thing.
i don't want klyne or bulge

i think i agree that vpb/username is the solve
If you are town and lose me this game, I'm going to be very upset.
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Post Post #1928 (isolation #276) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:28 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Dude, I'm not going to be mad at you personally. It's just a game.

But as a game play, this is exceptionally stupid. I saved you from getting yeeted, which makes no sense as scum in that situation. You at least owe me some trust based on that. If you'd give me a damn wolf flip, we will win this very easily.
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Post Post #1941 (isolation #277) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:39 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

I'm covering the insurrection today. But I will be here eventually to say, iv, you are not in charge of this town.

If you are going to try to lose this game, I will come in here and for the coalition with out you until you get your head out of your butt.

Andy, where's your heart at today?
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Post Post #1943 (isolation #278) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:42 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1942, innocentvillager wrote:...no one is in charge of this town?
Town's always have leaders. I'm going to organize us into a win. You can either help with that, or continue on with tin foil.
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Post Post #1945 (isolation #279) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:54 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1944, innocentvillager wrote:soooo you are the town leader this game and you are going to organize us for the win? how?
I can get enough votes to yeet scum today. Waiting on Andy an user to come back to the thread
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Post Post #1948 (isolation #280) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:08 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1947, innocentvillager wrote:what's your current read on me?
I think you're town doing your best to lose this game, and it's incredibly frustrating
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Post Post #1951 (isolation #281) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:21 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

What is my read progression on username?

Also, have you played with me as scum?
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Post Post #1952 (isolation #282) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:31 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1949, innocentvillager wrote:ive been semi-tunneled on you and username for a bit longer than ive publicly stated in thread
I mean, if you think this hasn't been obvious...

I know you've been tinfoiling and making this game more complicated than it really is for quite some time now. I've been trying to persuade you to look at all my play this game and realize you're incorrect. You're falling for the fallacy that scum are always playing at a high level. Sometimes it's as simple as the lurkers and uninfluential people being scum. Given the mass of replacements in this game, you should understand scum haven't exactly been playing master class here.

My hope here was that we could just flip a wolf and you'd snap out of this, rather than me having to get a mafia player to help me yeet a wolf.
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Post Post #1953 (isolation #283) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:43 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1949, innocentvillager wrote:maybe because you saw town!ABR defend me and me vehemently townread him back in 2180
If you think I would ever play like ABR in that game, yikes.

But speaking of that game, do you see big differences in my town play there versus here? I don't think my town play gets more obvious than this game.
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Post Post #1961 (isolation #284) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:41 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1958, Ahsoka wrote:I'm still thinking CLidd slot is the most likely slot to be Mafia, though.
Can you tell me more on this? I'm mostly hanging on to my early game read, but maybe I'm being biased.
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Post Post #1966 (isolation #285) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:44 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Re: IV's wall - I'll try to respond to the biggest points today if I can find the time. The news business will be crazy for the rest of the week, but this is just to say I'm not ignoring what you said iv. It reads to me as complete confbias, but I'll respond because I don't think you're scum.
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Post Post #1972 (isolation #286) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:33 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1951, VP Baltar wrote:What is my read progression on username?

Also, have you played with me as scum?
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Post Post #1973 (isolation #287) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:33 am

Post by VP Baltar »

^@iv
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Post Post #1974 (isolation #288) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:35 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Andy, I asked you your preference today given you aren't voting yet. I want to hear where your head is at.
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Post Post #1976 (isolation #289) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:39 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1956, innocentvillager wrote:He has kept username in some of his solves lately but like, only as a very passing note. He has kept username in some of his solves lately but like, only as a very passing note.
This is the extent I see you talk about my views on username. I'm not following how this is about an "evolution" of my read. .
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Post Post #1980 (isolation #290) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:58 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1978, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 1976, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1956, innocentvillager wrote:He has kept username in some of his solves lately but like, only as a very passing note. He has kept username in some of his solves lately but like, only as a very passing note.
This is the extent I see you talk about my views on username. I'm not following how this is about an "evolution" of my read. .
it's there, just control+F "I think VP Baltar had a weird read evolution on username" and the section is there
Ok, I'm on my phone, but I must have missed it. I'll check later when I'm on a computer
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Post Post #1982 (isolation #291) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 6:51 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1981, innocentvillager wrote:idk I still think you're scum but im still paranoid and getting mixed vibes from you so if you're town i'd like to try and convince you that at least username is likely wolf?
If you want to know my paranoid theory, it is that username really could be a wolf here. I've kind of been watching how he voted around Klyne/Bulge to guage intentions and motivation. He did give a decent explanation for his switch, but that's not outside the realm of faking. (Plus I just haven't had time to closely fact check all his linked posts).

At the end of the day, if the consensus is username, I'm going to vote there. I know my alignment, so he has a better chance of flipping wolf than me.

I do want to respond to your points about Klyne though. I just need to get the time to do that. My work life is hell because of the coup. I'm going to try after my shift today if I get off at a reasonable time.
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Post Post #1985 (isolation #292) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 8:59 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1984, Ahsoka wrote:I think Pagetop is Mafia because it looks like they're only looking for one team, and I think they're new telling it.
Maybe. I mostly want to hit a wolf today if we can because of the way that affects Xylo. I explained that breakdown a bit when iv asked if we were in Xylo already today. Plus eliminating mafia just gives the wolves a free kill at night.
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Post Post #1989 (isolation #293) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:17 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1987, Ahsoka wrote:let's just fade Bulge
This is kind of where my head is at.
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Post Post #2001 (isolation #294) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:09 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1993, innocentvillager wrote:lmfao omg

yeah i don't want klyne today lol
I'm so confused how you found that screed townie
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Post Post #2004 (isolation #295) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:35 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Well I have to say I'm a bit concerned that EVERYONE is pro Bulge yeet. And that really does kind of fuck with my solve.

To quote someone I know: "fuck this game"
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Post Post #2007 (isolation #296) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:09 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2005, innocentvillager wrote:I thought you were fine voting with the consensus though? why the paranoia only now?
It's a big decision mostly. I mean, bulge is in my solve so I need to just trust my gut. I get weirded out when there is no resistance though. That always feels like scum must be comfortable with it.
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Post Post #2012 (isolation #297) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:52 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Feel like you were winding up to vote me, tbh
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Post Post #2033 (isolation #298) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:58 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1915, iamausername wrote:reading Klyne's latest posting and trying to figure out what he is trying to achieve and i am doubting the possibility that he is paired with Bulge, but also doubting the possibility that he is town. and he still ain't mafia.

i asked him several days ago who he thought the wolves are, because he hadn't given any reads besides that Bulge is mafia. he still hasn't answered that question, though he has stated a town read on Ahsoka and he's voting PageTopAndy, so i guess he's saying PTA is a wolf??

it strikes me that the mafia read on Bulge might actually be a genuine read, and that he's struggling to fake wolf reads. he's never felt like he was struggling to fake reads on previous days, but perhaps that's because he didn't so much have to - there were still enough mafia left that he could scumhunt genuinely to some extent. but at this point it almost feels like he's actively trying to be the execution of the day, or at the very least, like he's not particularly concerned about the possibility. this suggests to me that he is a wolf who is not worried about his partner going down after he does. he expects Bulge to be executed as his partner, and also believes that Bulge is the final mafia, so he's not worried about his partner losing to mafia in a 1:1:1 situation.

like, all this "who is my partner tho???" posturing when both me and VP have been very clear about thinking the Klyne/Bulge pair makes the most sense feels like it's angling to get that partnership reinforced in everyone's minds.

kind of thinking we could be looking at a Klyne/Ahsoka pair, since my theory hinges on Klyne being confident in his read of Bulge as the final mafia, and if it were me, knowing for a fact that Ahsoka isn't mafia would certainyl boost my confidence in that read. been discounting that pair mostly because Taly was on Klyne over Titus D1, but looking back on it, that really doesn't seem like a reason to discount it:
In post 395, Taly wrote: VOTE: Klyne

I want to see something.
this is the extent of Taly's explanation for his Klyne vote when he makes it. at this point, there is only one other vote on Klyne. certainly not difficult to believe that scum would vote their partner in this way.

in the time between the next vote being placed on Klyne in and the peak fifth vote in , Taly did not post once.

in the time between the Klyne wagon peaking and the galaxii wagon taking off, Taly posted exactly this:
In post 684, Taly wrote:my mental energy has been divided to lots of stuff aside from this, ill get to the thread soon

questions or direct comments on my votes/thoughts are top-tier ways to see my POV and motivate me

*sneezes, farts, and then dies*
so basically, i don't think it's actually true to say that Taly voted for Klyne over Titus in any meaningful way.

VOTE: Klyne
Ok I went back over this post by post and this is mostly true. Taly does kind of have one interaction in post 275, where Taly asks Klyne a weird softball.

That's here:
In post 275, Taly wrote:137 and 138 Klyne

Why is your read on me based on one post where I townlean Marashu?

And your scumpool consists of people who are bussing each other in both scumteams if it were realistic, do you think this is a plausible solve?

I ask because I get the impression that your reads are based around controlling what people should think versus a personal solve from you.

The "unadultered NOOB SCUM FEAR" is too hyperbolic for me to be convinced by your read there.
Klyne never responds to this and the game kind of goes on. Taly votes and there's no real follow up.

So yeah, vote counts alone make it look like Ahoska/Klyne can't be partners, but if Taly was legit flaking out during that time, the wagon may have gotten run up before he could find a reason to bail on it.

It's also worth noting that Taly's next post about Klyne after his "sneeze, fart" post is 300 posts later with an unexplained:
In post 911, Taly wrote:so, i like VP/Klyne/Titus for town

Klyne is suddenly town with no explanation.
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Post Post #2038 (isolation #299) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:00 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Occurring to me: Bulge mafia could explain why everyone is in favor of his yeet
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Post Post #2042 (isolation #300) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:55 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2040, The Bulge wrote:
In post 2038, VP Baltar wrote:Occurring to me: Bulge mafia could explain why everyone is in favor of his yeet
yea definitely not because half of you are scum and I'm the easiest afk push
Your statement would still be true if you were mafia, fwiw.

I'm not interested in yeeting mafia today though. I want a wolf pelt
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Post Post #2054 (isolation #301) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:39 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2048, Ahsoka wrote:VPB was pushing me as Mafia, but now is stopping Bulge.

It's VPB and Bulge.
This is what gets me about you. I have a hard time believing town!Flavor says things this logically bad.

I'm putting out different thoughts and considerations I'm having as we talk, and you're jumping to conclusions that I'd never want Bulge. Where did I say I'd never yeet him today? Am I not allowed to have concerns? Am I not allowed to express those?

Trying to shade people for concerns is definitely not townie behavior.

I definitely want a wolf today. It is better for the game state. That literally has nothing to do with what I think about your slot or "saving" you for the future. I can't tell if you're that egotistical that you think everyone is constantly thinking about you (I am not) or if you're just squirmy scum.
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Post Post #2055 (isolation #302) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:41 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2053, innocentvillager wrote:VP Baltar: recently Klyne/The Bulge, now Klyne/Ahsoka? is that right VP Baltar?
Username/Bulge is a legit solve as well, though one I think is less likely.
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Post Post #2058 (isolation #303) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:58 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2057, innocentvillager wrote:hmmm idk VP Baltar, I don't know if it was a crazy logical deduction from town!Ahsoka's perspective to think you might be saving The Bulge from the fade today by getting paranoid and sidelining him as mafia
It was. I understand you've completely gone in on this tunnel on me, but I never said I'm opposed to bulge today. In fact, I said explicitly that was where my head was at today.

If you aren't asking questions about why literally everyone wants bulge with no resistance, then you're not thinking about all possibilities here.
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Post Post #2059 (isolation #304) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:00 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2056, innocentvillager wrote:so you think it's either Klyne/Ahsoka or Username/Bulge?

interesting that you think there's no overlap
No, Klyne/bulge is a legit solve as well, so bulge is the overlap there.

Is there a reason you have not responded to username's look at Ahoska?
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Post Post #2062 (isolation #305) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:37 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2060, innocentvillager wrote:everyone wanted MURDERCAT yesterday with no resistance but no one went like "omg why is no one resisting"
That is such a stupid point. Murdercat was the most obvious scum in the world.

Why are you so fucking distrustful of me? Have I not proven my ability to hunt scum to you yet?

Twice this game I've backed scum yeets. In the last game we played, I roleblocked scum three nights in a row, even if it was a Gypyx game and that meant nothing. I saved you when no one else would. Like dude, I'm ok at reading people. I can't believe how frustrating you are being to even give me the slightest benefit of the doubt this game, when in all reality, I've done way more than you to earn that. Have a little fucking perspective.
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Post Post #2063 (isolation #306) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:39 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2061, innocentvillager wrote:i haven't responded to it because i think username is wolf and I don't think Ahsoka is

but i will give it a closer look, i guess
Give it a look. I reviewed it myself yesterday because skepticism is fair. What username is saying does have merit though as a possibility.
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Post Post #2065 (isolation #307) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:48 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2064, innocentvillager wrote:...yeah im not even gonna respond to that
You don't need to respond to it. I'm just saying, the head up arse schtick is super frustrating. I'm definitely a skeptical person by nature, so I can completely get wanting to check all avenues, but I've shown you time and again you're being unreasonable and your response is to lean into it even more!

Anyhow, me arguing with you about it is not helping. I'm just annoyed.

Review username's case on Klyne. I have a few more things to say about Klyne today, and if you don't find it convincing, I'll vote bulge.
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Post Post #2073 (isolation #308) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:48 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Iv, I appreciate you at least considering. Let me talk about Klyne today a bit, and if you're still too skeptical there, I'll compromise on bulge.
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Post Post #2075 (isolation #309) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:20 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2074, innocentvillager wrote:we have less than day left tho yeah? we gotta do this fast
If we end on bulge, I think we have plenty of time. Me convincing enough onto Klyne is probably a bit tight, but maybe doable
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Post Post #2077 (isolation #310) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:19 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2076, Ahsoka wrote:I still think Bulge is the safest choice and is generally going to end up being faded this game anyways.

They have wolf equity with almost every player in the game, and a higher chance of being Mafia.

The kill list and kill will be able to give us some more info to work with anyways.
You're not wrong that bulge probably needs to go at some point. So that's a good point.

If he does flip mafia, we won't get a kill list though
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Post Post #2081 (isolation #311) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:18 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Ok, so I'm doing some big picture stuff looking at Klyne because I was one of his biggest defenders when I entered the game. The brashness and eagerness to fight with people felt pretty town to me, and he picked up on the Titus/Marashu bond that I did (though that ultimately turned out to be TvT, so that wasn't a good read in hindsight).

Klyne's voting record this game isn't great when you start to review it. If you go to his iso and search for "VOTE:", you will see he has 15 votes this game. He opens with an RVSish vote on Taly, and eventually switches to D1 vote on Titus...which becomes a big tunnel fest on Klyne's part. He is middle of the pack on the galaxii wagon and calls it "boring," which doesn't really feel as much like a bus, but IDK, it could be.

After the galaxii flip, Klyne votes PlusJOYED because their iso is "really offensive," but then also kind of just continues fighting with Titus and not persuading anyone onto a PJ wagon. Datisi was doing a lot more work to push PJ.

Then there is a bunch of lurking from Klyne and this is really when his contributions to the game start to die off. This is fairly early D2.

Klyne is first on DeasVail with no explanation and doesn't ever explain the vote actually now that I'm looking back. Egg on my face for helping argue that one, but yeah...shit he just lurks through the entire holiday and never said anything about voting out a townie.

Then we flip Murdercat and Klyne is again very late (hammers). If it weren't for the back to back kill nominations, I'd totally suspect klyne as mafia.

The rest of Klynes' votes are just bouncing back and forth between Bulge and Andy.


so the tl;dr version is that Klyne hasn't really done any effective scum hunting this game and has mostly been a dead presence in terms of pushing for his own causes. If his reads were more correct, I might give that more of a pass, but the scum wagons he was on weren't really his doing ... and he hasn't effectively pushed much of anything else.
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Post Post #2082 (isolation #312) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:20 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1641, Klyne wrote:Feels like deflated scum and if you read MURDERCAT the way he mentioned Jackson in his read feels more exclusive and fits into the angle MURDERCAT was trying to represent. Again, MURDERCAT's D1 involvement was just high volume "solves" with shallow reads to accredit a townie mindset. His suspicion of Jackson was much more direct and despite everything he placed him at null, saying that he was worried that Jackson could be Titus' partner. When MURDERCAT was finally getting limmed ask yourself what bulge was doing.
This post directed at Bulge does feel like one of the few actual bits of scumhunting from Klyne in his iso post the D2 slump. If Bulge is mafia, then that might be more wolf indicative for Klyne. Let me look some more at Klynes' iso and try to find actual scum hunting.
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Post Post #2086 (isolation #313) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:50 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2084, Klyne wrote:You look at me and say I'm not scumhunting or solving, but how would you ever know this if you weren't me?
You haven't contributed to scum death in any substantial way. This is how I know. Words are wind, mother fucker.
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Post Post #2087 (isolation #314) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:52 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 138, Klyne wrote:Scum is Taly/Marashu/Titus/Battle Mage/PLUSJoyed(?)
BTW, when Klyne says he called BM first, this is the post he is referring to.

I too could list half the game in brackets and be bound to have some scum in there.
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Post Post #2088 (isolation #315) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:56 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 813, Klyne wrote:I mean at the very basic level his offense comes from the fact he isn't scumhunting.
^ in reference to Plus Joyed way back. Doesn't really square with Klyne's new position of "how can you know if I'm scumhunting, you're not me"
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Post Post #2091 (isolation #316) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:01 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 909, Klyne wrote:
In post 908, Titus wrote:Right now my working theory is

Bulge DV wolves
MURDERCAT and Taly for mafia

Hey









We agree
This is kind of interesting in hindsight. Wonder how accurate Titus was.
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Post Post #2092 (isolation #317) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:06 pm

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In post 1426, Klyne wrote:COULD BE WRONG ON BALTAR DONT LIKE THE HYUEHUEHUEHUE I KNOW YOU'RE WOLF BOY BULLSHIT YOU WERE ALL BUDDY WITH KLYNE WHEN I DROPPED THE WAGONOMICS AND NOW ONE BAD LYNCH YOU THINK IM A WOLF? FUCK THAT NOISE

I'LL READ MURDERCAT
This is the beginning of a series of posts where Klyne has a VERY SIGNIFICANT reaction to me calling him a wolf. It really stuck out to me at the time because it's not like I was really banging the drum hard for his year, yet he snaps and spends several posts saying he wants to fight with me about it. IDK, could be OMGUS townie, but also could be wolf over estimating how much pressure he is facing.
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Post Post #2094 (isolation #318) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:10 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1359, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1358, Klyne wrote:BE SEEING YOU SOON AFTER THE HOLIDAYS
You'll probably be dead by then wolf boy
This is literally the post that sets Klyne off about being a wolf. Hmm
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Post Post #2095 (isolation #319) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:11 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1437, Klyne wrote:If I were a wolf here my best option were to nuthug townies and hope they kill mafia and I can sick as shit doing it
P. sure this is exactly what happened this game.
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Post Post #2098 (isolation #320) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:16 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 1473, Klyne wrote:I'm not paying attention too terribly from D1 when it comes to MURDERCAT, I said I was gonna READ HIM but opted to not do that

To show some humility, there has been a modicum of doubt in my own solves and at some points I was getting deflated a tiny bit. I just glanced over iamausername's MURDERCAT mini-case and I think it's. Fine. But goddamn. Cannot shake Titus and D2 was supposed to be the day I gave up on that. Multi-ball does fuck with how you're supposed to read self-preservation or even associative cases like that but I won't use it as an excuse. Anyways, I ended up with DV/PlusJOYED then people just went "YUP IV TOWN" and in my head I'm thinking "Well why fucking bother vote DV alternative kinda think he's scummy" now we're here

So where does my solve put me? Still not fucking with Titus but I am in a position where MURDERCAT thinks his only option of persuasion is to defend me and keep rolling with Yup Titus Scum. Believe me, I'm a fucking stubborn dipshit but not enough to see that MURDERCAT's actions do not conclude with what's he's saying. I'll end this brief thought here (and don't you worry, after your response I have more to say) and ask how you feel about the 3 MURDERCAT votes right now because something tells me there's a mafia/wolf in those 3 votes.
This one gives me a little bit of pause because it is town-spewy
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Post Post #2099 (isolation #321) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:19 pm

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In post 1479, Klyne wrote:The way I look at it from town perspective is that you have normal scum and then Wolves who act like two SKs without the innate ability to kill.
SK/Indies act more independent and are harder to discern.
iv, how does this square with how you see Klyne's play this game? This is how he thinks about being a wolf.
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Post Post #2100 (isolation #322) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:24 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Last thing I'll say about Klyne. This is us coming into the home stretch of the game. He says this:
In post 1535, Klyne wrote:I THINK WE NEED TO KILL A WOLF HERE
But then goes on to kind of just say his wolf reads are bad and maybe Bulge is the last mafia and he thinks we should just yeet Bulge.

Klyne never really hunts wolves at all. He gets in at times on this shit directed at me after other players champion that, but I know for a fact that's not true.


I don't think the case for Klyne wolf is as bad as you think, iv.

I'll await your response and my vote is read to go if this doesn't sway you.
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Post Post #2101 (isolation #323) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:25 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2097, Klyne wrote:NO MORE POSTS IF IM DEAD ITS YOUR FAULT IF IM ALIVE WE CAN ALL HAVE SEX ON THE FLOOR AND WORK OUT OUR FRUSTRATIONS
I will say, I chuckled a lot reading your iso. Regardless of alignment, I'm pro your posting style.
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Post Post #2103 (isolation #324) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:50 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Hilarious vote count divide remains hilarious
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Post Post #2104 (isolation #325) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:08 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2093, Klyne wrote:GET OUT OF THE ISO AND COME FIGHT ME BALTAR

WAR
I'm here btw
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Post Post #2109 (isolation #326) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:22 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2106, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 2099, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1479, Klyne wrote:The way I look at it from town perspective is that you have normal scum and then Wolves who act like two SKs without the innate ability to kill.
SK/Indies act more independent and are harder to discern.
iv, how does this square with how you see Klyne's play this game? This is how he thinks about being a wolf.
why would he say that and then do exactly that though?
I don't think he maybe thought that could be used against him in the future. It was kind of a throwaway comment when he was getting wound up about me the offhand remark of me calling him a wolf.
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Post Post #2110 (isolation #327) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:23 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2107, PageTopAndy wrote:Has anyone else been having WiFi issues?? I’ve had to switch over to my phone
Lol
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Post Post #2111 (isolation #328) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:25 pm

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In post 2108, innocentvillager wrote:to convince me Klyne is scum you're gonna have to convince me Ahsoka is wolf with him

I don't think the fact that his reads are not great mean he's significantly more likely to be scum
Ok, I'm going to vote bulge then. It's getting to the end of my day and I don't have the energy for a big deep dive on affiliations between them. I do think username's case on that holds merit. But we should end this day because I won't be back here before deadline ends after a couple hours.
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Post Post #2112 (isolation #329) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:27 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

VOTE: bulge
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Post Post #2117 (isolation #330) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:18 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Nah, just hammer
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Post Post #2121 (isolation #331) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:01 pm

Post by VP Baltar »

Haha, Andy, I thought you had played mafia before?
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Post Post #2229 (isolation #332) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:48 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Glad Andy finally got a pagetop
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Post Post #2248 (isolation #333) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:59 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2231, innocentvillager wrote:and this is where midwaybear is going to say Klyne was his alt and that's why he was following this game!
Would respect the personality change even if I'm very pissed at "Klyne" for botching an easily teed-up town win
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Post Post #2259 (isolation #334) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:07 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2244, Titus wrote:I was right. Lol
Kudos on fighting this game. You did a good job going from being wagoned early to widely townread. Essential play in this setup to save a misyeet
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Post Post #2261 (isolation #335) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:09 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2258, Klyne wrote:Baltar I know you can't stay mad at me forever

Call me xoxoxo
You've burned me after I had your back :(

You definitely owe me that beer
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Post Post #2268 (isolation #336) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:16 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2265, Klyne wrote:Nobody should feel sad or like town lost
Town literally lost.

Wear the dunce cap with pride and go gettum next time champ
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Post Post #2271 (isolation #337) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:18 am

Post by VP Baltar »

In post 2266, Flavor Leaf wrote:Also modding a Large Theme here if anyone's interested in joining. I'm pretty happy with what I feel's going to be a great game.
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=85530
I may be down to play if my other game wraps soon for me. Playing 2 games at once is too much for me I have learned.
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Post Post #2289 (isolation #338) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:58 am

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In post 2281, Flavor Leaf wrote:VPB made a line about why would he not understand why a wolf needed to die made me scum, but I said that because that was my actual thoughts on the subject from a town's POV, and I still agree. that Mafia fade nearly won town the game because we became obvious as scum. Klyne was able to become pretty townie, and for the most part IV was able to.
We definitely approach the game very differently. To me that felt like a huge scum tell.

Bulge was never NOT going to get yeeted this game because of the PoE. To me, that made the argument to focus on wolves even greater. I ultimately had to compromise because of iv. I considered shifting that compromise to username, but by that point I had spent too much time trying to convert iv to my viewpoint. We only had a few hours to deadline and I figured if username was a wolf, I would have hit a lot of interference to actually get the job done.

I think you're right about the setup. It FEELS unbalanced, but when all sides play at equal levels, it probably is balanced. I do appreciate setups that reward good play over night actions, personally.
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Post Post #2291 (isolation #339) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:01 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Lol
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Post Post #2297 (isolation #340) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:21 am

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In post 2296, dsjstr wrote:btw VPB I really like the way you speak I think it would be hard to tell if you are mafia based on your tone
Thanks! It's probably because of my job as a journalist. I have to write a lot on a daily basis and try to be as clear as possible.

Some people like that. I will say, I often get scum read as town though because people think I'm being manipulative when I'm really just trying to be persuasive. Double edged sword!
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Post Post #2307 (isolation #341) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:18 am

Post by VP Baltar »

Just make the kill mandatory for the wolves.
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