Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)

[Belisarius]

There ain't no getting offa this train we're on

[Belisarius]

VOTE: farside22

That is not a random vote.

Replace outs are null. This is not debatable, and shouldn't have to be said.

Seriously, is there anything else blatantly obvious that needs to be pointed out? How about "The gravitational attraction between two objects is proportional to the sum of their masses and inversely proportional to the distance between them?"

There also seems to be a general flaking trend going on at the moment.

[Belisarius]

I have no clue where meta came into this conversation. Nor where I even expect mr. Blond to defend my comment.
This is pretty simple people. 2 games I was in a player asked for replacement and both times those players were scum.
For me this better then average experience. Does this mea 100% lmets lynch mr. Blond. No
Did I tell people this is something that needs to happen. No
I stated a fact I have experienced.

Oh, well 2 is certainly a scientifically rigorous sample size. Can't argue with science!

I'd still rather lynch you because the faeries told me to.

[Belisarius]

Beli, please tone down the sarcasm just a tad as it's not necessary and does nothing to aid the conversation.

I'm afraid I'm going to go ahead and reject that unfounded stipulation -- and, by the transitive property, the demand premised by it.

[Belisarius]

Let me ask you, because this is specific and rare.

Rare? This game required

four

replacements pregame. In a mini. Wow, that's a lot of scum for a mini. Better lynch all of the pregame replacements. Let's start with you. If you flip town, I'll volunteer to go next.

So, here's my list of pre-game replacement list without [citation needed] tags:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p4600081 - Blueberry requested replacement pregame. Replacement flipped town.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=29453 - Xdaamno replaced Moon; Replacement won with the town (NB: It's not explicitly stated that Moon requested replacement, but there was no large delay during confirmation/draft phase that would result from a player failing to pick up their role PM or communicate with the mod)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=31072 - Sakura Hana requested replacement pregame. Replacement was town, and delicious.

Conclusion: Similar sample size to yours, because yes, I'll concede it's rare. I, however, arrived at exactly the opposite result as you, which is why

miniscule sample sizes are not statistically relevant

.

[Belisarius]

Wow, that was confusing; first paragraph was referring to pre-game replacements in general, the rest to player-requested pre-game replacements.

[Belisarius]

Why are you turning this into argumentum ad absurdum by changing the argument to involve all replacements, requested or not?

Because I'm not. Those links were two games where the mod specifically stated replacement was requested, and one where a pregame replacement occurred without sufficient delay to gamestart for it to be anything

but

a request.

"Active elsewhere" is not relevant; there is no cause and effect relationship between replace-out requests and activity elsewhere. What's next, are we going to limit the criteria to a specific moon phase, making it even more impossible to get a sufficient sample size to be meaningful? How about only looking at replacements who are dog owners?

[Belisarius]

He looks to be trying to make it as though I was yelling charge, telling people this is scum and expecting people to follow that.
All of that is far from factual.

Add putting words in my mouth to the case against farside.

Additionally, your attack on Blondy was just suppressive fire for lack of a better target, but when I do the same thing but with

more

to go on, it's sinister and machiavellian? I think there's a word for that.

[Belisarius]

I look at this and go, would scum be so flippant?

Yep!

God I loved that game.

[Belisarius]

@Mod: I should still be voting Farside in that last VC

Thank you. Fixed.

[Belisarius]

Add he has not really talked about much else this game.

Much else? Try anything else. It's the only thing that has jumped out at me this game.

Inspiration will come, worry pas. Even if it doesn't come in time, I use dead QTs.

[Belisarius]

Wherefore the concern?

[Belisarius]

Honestly the whole "my wagon is scum driven because it was so fast" is awful.

It really shouldn't be, and thus it's a great way to scumhunt. Voting just to make a wagon is no better than lynching at random, and thus works in scum's favour. Who wants such a method? Here's a hint: it's not town with the brains the gods gave a blivet of shit.

Who besides chaos do you think is scum?

[Belisarius]

But I'm not overstating my case against farside? elucidate

[Belisarius]

I comprehend not thy case against me. Fight harder to

[Belisarius]

Let's be perfectly frank :"given the current situation I'm prepared to try to kill anyone I don't demand protection from.

Basically I refuse to kill Aum. Is there anyone else thou would'st hae mine aid in murdering?

[Belisarius]

*VRAX MOBILE WHEN I REFUSE TO VOTE I REFUSE TO VOTE

[Belisarius]

Aum = Vote sans reason

[Belisarius]

Ja'hlu vrax?

[Belisarius]

Ja'hlu vrax?

[Belisarius]

Vrax double posts

[Belisarius]

Alright, CKD, you win a sheep.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Skelda

I'm not happy about my lack of scumreads this late in the Day. There's

got

to be something usable here...

[Belisarius]

I've got seconds at a time to check MS today, so don't expect an inspired defence. I should have a moonrise minute or two just before deadline though if I'm needed to prevent a no lynch.

[Belisarius]

Aw. Well, good luck

[Belisarius]

D1 mislynches aren't so bad, you can still pull through.

[Belisarius]

I had a gut feeling dry might be a PR, but subtly enough I didn't expect scum to have the same thought. I was expecting someone more obvtown or threatening to die. On that basis, I expect to find scum in the players the tiny scumBeli perched on my shoulder would be most afraid of: farside, CKD, AFF, and Toby. I don't know which of them I'd rather lynch, so I'm open to suggestions from my townreads.

What sayeth the noble acrayon?

[Belisarius]

Also, why be afraid of those people, Belisarius?

I am not. The tiny scumBeli perched on my shoulder is.

I just gave you my scum reads in my last post. As for townreads, the only stable one I have is on acrayon and even then only because his trajectory on me feels viscerally condign.

[Belisarius]

Isn't it obvious?

I haven't been playing Mafia for seven years. You haven't been playing Mafia for seven years.

Yeah, yeah, I know, playing a lot doesn't mean playing well, but you don't play for seven years without picking up a thing or two.

[Belisarius]

I feel like right now if one of Beli/CKD/Chaos is scum then so are the other two.

You seriously believe the *entire* scumteam piled onto one lynch?

Have you ever been scum before?

[Belisarius]

Come to think of it, the Rule of Three applies here.

VOTE: curiouskarmadog

[Belisarius]

Or really, why the vote for Beli over either of them is a better question.

More to the point, scumBeli is easy to lynch, but wagons on townBeli almost always fall apart under the weight of their own shitness.

I welcome wagons on me.

[Belisarius]

When scum lists off three scumspects in a post, it's usually one scumbuddy and two townies.

[Belisarius]

Nope! I don't grok the case on chaos at all. Chaos is just lynchbait.

[Belisarius]

AFF does.

[Belisarius]

A village idiot or just someone who happens to be having a bad game can be dismissed by town for being that bad and can easily lounge through the remainder of the game.

1) "having a bad game" != "being

that

bad" and the way you phrased that shows you know it damned well
2) How is piling on lynchbait any better than lynching at random? Because I can tell you how it's worse: It provides camouflage for scum using lynchbait to protect themselves and their scumbuddies from the lynch.

[Belisarius]

Why a CKD vote over Amy?

Because gin.

[Belisarius]

see, this is a problem right here.

This is the opposite of a problem ; Haven't you heard? Gin makes you win.

[Belisarius]

Prod acknowledged.

My reads have not changed; I've been able to keep up with reading this game on the sly at work due to a sudden drop in activity there, I just haven't had anything to add.

Except, perhaps, for this:

The chaos wagon can eat a bag of dicks.

[Belisarius]

i get the impression if he doesnt have an interesting role or is scum, he doesnt really care about the game, it is more of an obligation

False. I hate being a PR. If I have to play town, I want to be VT.

[Belisarius]

Look at CKD WK'ing the fuck out of me. When I'm gone, lynch him next.

I don't care in what order you kill AFF and Farside, but CKD needs to go first.

[Belisarius]

Beli, why CKD over Amy when you first voted?

AFF didn't lead yesterday's mislynch, and more to the point, buddying raises my hackles.

[Belisarius]

The other point I'm also getting at, is that you based your vote on (scum) Amy listing one scum between you, Chaos, or CKD. Instead of voting for scum Amy herself, you voted for a possible association with Amy.

Six of one, half a dozen of the other, and I wasn't as certain of my scumread as you seem to believe.

If I'd seen something scummier before the buddying solidified my read, I would have changed my vote. Since that didn't happen, vote stands. It's not mysterious. It was that or sit in the not voting pile until I had an enormous wagon on me and everything I do looks self-serving.

why are you so certain you'll be gone?

I'm not a precog, I'm just reading the gamestate. It's going to be me or Chaos for sure today, and I sure as hell ain't voting Chaos even to save my own life -- he might vote me to save himself; hence, I'm the more likely to eat rope today.

A flashwagon on CKD would be nice, but it's not my birthday.

[Belisarius]

Why do you think a player you are town reading would do the bold?

He's read his role PM. He hasn't read mine. Mathematically, it's the sensible course of action.

[Belisarius]

Why do you think a player you are town reading would do the bold?

He's read his role PM. He hasn't read mine. Mathematically, it's the sensible course of action.

[Belisarius]

I'm not a precog, I'm just reading the gamestate. It's going to be me or Chaos for sure today, and I sure as hell ain't voting Chaos even to save my own life -- he might vote me to save himself; hence, I'm the more likely to eat rope today.

A flashwagon on CKD would be nice, but it's not my birthday.

Why do you think a player you are town reading would do the bold?

He's read his role PM. He hasn't read mine. Mathematically, it's the sensible course of action.

Doesn't it make sense for you to vote Chaos to save your own life by your own logic and given the position you're in?

Yes, it does. But I'm not going to play by mathematics alone. Sometimes you gotta throw out the rulebook or you're just letting scum call the tune. Right now I'm doing what feels viscerally right without being conscious of what my brain is telling me. It's paradox, not contradiction, and I fucking love paradox .

[Belisarius]

Well, I think we're both town, so I suppose I qualify: camouflage.

Seriously, enough with the WK'ing unless you're CKD's blood relative as well as his scumbuddy

[Belisarius]

I've already claimed VT.

I really like that case against me, except for the bit where it's me that it's against. You get to be my new top townread.

Still liking CKD, farside, and AFF for scum, in that order.

[Belisarius]

As for Farside, Beli attacked them had day 1 for going after the scrambles slot.

Beli acted super righteous in pursuing farside, as if his cause against farside was handed down from above.

Totally bus material.

That situation would, of course, be Beli-scum defending Blonde/scrambles-scum by attacking farside-scum who was attacking Blonde/scrambles-scum.


It's scum v. scum v. scum. Ballsy.

It almost worked!

I'm

always

looking for ways to make my flip damaging to town in the event of my own lynch

I recently completed a scumgame where me and my buddy (Acryon, incidentally) voted together, on the wagon that went to lynch, every Day. That one

did

work.