Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[copper223]

/confirm

[copper223]

Odds are you are both town.

[copper223]

@Mastin
True statement for most players but irrelevant

[copper223]

copper, have you played with mastin before?

Nope, I have read some of her guides.

[copper223]

@mod I'm

ready

to play

tth's internet crush is scum, btw

I think your sister is going to take care of you for me after this comment

[copper223]

LOL you assume i was talking about you

I'm jelous now

[copper223]

VOTE: Killapen

@Wicked
BBT jumping on things is more likely to be town and Mastin starting with a pseudo "confirm post analysis" on what I thought were syncs on confirmation time and words used (I missed the ready reference in the PM tbf.) is consistent with my mental image of her as a town player.

[copper223]

@Beast
Why is "try harding" a scumtell?

[copper223]

@Dave
If you're not worried about Mastin's vote why do you keep mentioning it and have already decided it was based on nothing/it's a reaction test?

@Eyestott
why do you think dodge is leaning scum on you for being mister nice guy?

[copper223]

@Dave

Your post implies that having a conversation about something means I'm worried about it. Why do you want to make that assumption?

Because if you really don't care one way or the other you just wait for further developments, in your position I'd be curious about where Mastin is going with this, assuming you're town:

- does she have a weird tell that is not working on me
- is she just faking it to show she is scumhunting
- is it a reaction test
- ...

instead you spent multiple posts claiming you're not worried about it, that she has nothing and that read is BS or at best it's a reaction test, that's not what someone that isn't worried does, your mindset is more along the lines of threat mitigation and while being defensive is not necessarily scummy, trying to hide it is.

[copper223]

@Wicked

@Eyestott
why do you think dodge is leaning scum on you for being mister nice guy?

Question feels weak considering dodge voted eyestott. Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but what are you hoping to gain through this inquiry?

I want both perspectives on their direct meta.

[copper223]

VOTE: Dave
I'm game Mastin.

Wicked is likely town.

I don't get the hate on Killa, he did not OMGUS everyone voting for him, he said he finds people voting for him without what he believes to be a valid reason scummy, which is different, best guess him vs teen is tvt.

I don't know exactly why, but I find Vettrock scummy, it looks like he is weighting every post to make sure it's good before posting.

Beast also likely town for that vote flailing he did (terrible logic though).

[copper223]

UNVOTE:
This kind of dumb play and "rage" combined with an early claim is very often town. The dog piling on the slot was also too quick for my liking.

Regarding beast, it's strange for scum to start the game by shifting your vote like he did, it draws attention, is easily attackable and can piss multiple people off just based on natural OMGUS, but it's true that after it he didn't write anything meaningful.

[copper223]

@Dodgy
I like teen's vote the least, the speed with which it picked up hints at a town push to start off with.

[copper223]

@Wicked
How confident are you about Dave being scum? It's true the early claims happened in Rome.

[copper223]

I like the last two posts by Vettrock btw so Dave latching onto that particular read is not endearing him to me.

[copper223]

So basically my early scumread on Vettrock was because he seemed very catious in his approach when posting, which could hint at scum carefully crafting their posts, now he is saying he is in general slow to deliberate D1 and with all the meta that can be done, it checks out to me from newbie 1502 but once again if someone has direct meta?, I don't see scum picking up on my read and telling me it's playstile related because the cure would be worse than the disease, someone would just say he is lying about his meta, so I now think Vettrock is town, which is further reason to doubt Dave.

@Vettrock
He may do it (early claim), as an experienced scum player, as a fake dumbtell that he is a frustrated vanilla townie that has lost motivation and doesn't care about the game anymore.

[copper223]

@Aneninen
So what's your read on Vettrock?

[copper223]

@Dave
The read on Vettrock.

Townies claiming VT prematurely has happened to me in Rome twice now, what Wicked said about it being more of a newbie thing and about not buying your frustration in particular reads true, especially for a guy being a civ nerd hence a strategical thinker I can see trying to fake it as a ploy being a possiblity.

VOTE: Dave

L-2

[copper223]

I don't see how that's relevant. Whether copper is the 1st or 2nd, he's still

arguing both sides to see which sticks.

Strawman as I'm not arguing for one or the other, I was presenting the first because that was my initial impression and accepted the second as possible after Wicked gave me his take and I checked them out. You are also attributing motives to my behavior (to see which sticks) based on what exactly?

False dichotomy. I don't agree with the theory that it's worse to claim than it is to be mislynched. There are some situations where a claim as town is better strategically.

It would be if I presented the alternatives as: either he claimed out of frustration or he faked it and is scum, but nowhere in my posts do I say that. What I say is I can see it in your range of plays given what I know about your background that you may fake it to look town, once again you are misleading about what actually was said and basing your reply on the misrep.

Not only that but you seem to be arguing here that you did it because it's strategically sound as town to do (giving as alternative a possible mislynch that hasn't happened yet, which I find very debatable as claiming early doesn't seem to be helping you if you are town) so you're also implying your frustration was calculated. => get him boys.

[copper223]

Since I can't place you on a chair with a lie detector as that would be game breaking everything you just said is meaningless.

[copper223]

@Dave
Why did you attempt to read only the players on your wagon?

[copper223]

@Mastin
Hearthless may be scum but not because of inactivity as that is likely not alignment indicative in this case.

[copper223]

Who happen to be the only active players. I can't read inactive ones.

clearly Aneninen was chosen because of his activity level, the fact your read on him is null because you are waiting for content doesn't raise an eyebrow, right...

[copper223]

Is this guy always like this?

[copper223]

@BBT
Dave reactions to Mastin's scumread, she is not serious -> she has nothing -> she is reaction testing, seem contradictory and scummy. I was/still am making up my mind on those two.

@Wicked
Don't you think it's strange for Scum_Dave to antagonize players like Beast or Vettrock, currently not voting for him?

[copper223]

@Aneninen
You're right, both Dave and I missed that you were not on his wagon, his reply that he chose the more active players, regardless of who they were voting, and then gave you a null read because of lack of content though makes 0 sense, so why did he put you in that list?

[copper223]

@Aneninen
Lol, I'm used to your posting style.

I asked him why he was scumreading only people on his wagon (because this to me, like his reaction to the Mastin scumread, reeked of threat mitigation) and he replied he chose those people not because they voted for him, but because they are the more active players he could actually get a read on (so he also did not notice or forgot about you not being on his wagon, otherwise I'd have expected him telling me: I read Aneninen as well, and he is not voting for me), but this reason he gives seemed pretty suspect to me as you clearly were not one of those players.

Now I can see a world where town_Dave tries to read Aneninen because they previously had a game together and comes up with a blank, so idk, it's not such a strong scumtell anymore and I continue disliking everyone finding an angle to jump on the wagon (BBT being the latest addition).

[copper223]

@BBT
Why does disliking Tean's vote imply I should vote for him?

Heartless may be scum because of the associative Dave dropped on them at the start of the game, if he is scum himself. As for the readlist, it would be a fair point if I actually gave one this game.

[copper223]

@BBT
I found Tean's vote opportunistic because he switched from Killa to Dave without much interaction with the wagon beforehand and only after more than one player expressed his like of Killa, so he went from possibly town to leaning scum, I deemed voting him before he could give his opinion on the matter and without really knowing if my read on Dave was correct to be premature.

It was the same thing you did in a smaller timeframe, mt catch-up and impressions.

@All
I am reviewing the latest pages and it looks like Dodgy is trying to bury Eyestott, because no matter the answer (and often I actually agree with Dodgy's pov but that's not the point) he argues the opposite.

[copper223]

Also due to my activity on the forum I'm in a position to know that heartless's lack of activity is not alignment indicative, so that's why I mentioned it.

[copper223]

@All
bury as in turn everything he says against him (which is not usually a town mindset).

@BBT
How do you find them to be

genuine

?

I think Dave as either scum or town has given us good reason to question his play and Tean structured their vote on him in a credible manner, it is still an inherently opportunistic vote by nature which makes it likelier to be scum indicative if Dave is town, the fact it was well presented actually is a warning sign cause it reminds me of how I would go about joining a late wagon as scum (make sure you really have objectively solid arguments).

Since this hinges on Dave's alignment this is not enough alone for me to vote or even to say Tean is scum, I do however no longer have a townread on their slot.

[copper223]

@BBT
You are either misusing the word genuine or slipping.

Top 3 scumreads are Dave, Dodgy and Eyes.

[copper223]

Throw that read away.

[copper223]

Your read on Aneninen is also bad I think, he looks town to me, that's why his read on Dave is giving me pause.

I'd like to know what heartless thinks of Dave and if Mastin is still confident about her read on him.

[copper223]

Direct meta.

[copper223]

@Dodgy
I said I agree with

some

of your points, in particular I don't like his l-2 is less significant than l-1 which is less significant than hammer, if you vote a guy you want to lynch him, unless you are clearly doing it to pressure that player, the position on the wagon is irrelevant, but you are attacking him for basically every post he has written.

[copper223]

@Dodgy
Yes I had you leaning town before the 1v1 for sharing my initial impression on Dave and my concerns with the speed of the wagon.

[copper223]

I see why Mollie gets uppity about newbie players...

My advice, since you both seem to be scumreading each other (and eyes., that was not an endorsement to turn around and behave the same):

- each of you make a case (being concise would be helpful) about why you think the other is scum.

at this point if you're both town this is an OMGUS based discussion, if one of you is scum the town player's arguments are getting drowned in the back and forth.

[copper223]

@BBT
My scumreads are not based on conjectures about possible scumteams. I do not think Dodgy/Eyes as both mafia is likely and I have a null on Heartless unless Dave flips scum.

[copper223]

I like it but I can make a similar case against Dodgy.

[copper223]

I think Dave is still scummier, do you think Dave is town?

[copper223]

@Aneninen
I think I alrady replied to most of your questions when BBT asked. How sure are you of Dave being town (0-100)? I am confident if Dave is town at least 1 scum was on that wagon, too tempting to pass.

[copper223]

@Aneninen
Ok.

VOTE: Eyes

[copper223]

@Wicked
When someone as active as you gets too many town reads it usually means one of two things:
- His pushes are on town and scum want him to be seen as solid town or will at least not cast doubt on him.
- He is scum himself.

In this instance I am starting to think your push on Dave is incorrect and he just is naturally scummy, but I'm still pretty sure you are town.

BBT has done a good job of convincing me the Eyes L-2 was scummier than Tean's vote, I think you should vote Eyes.

[copper223]

@Wicked
It is too early to say, I think bandwagons are good for late game analysis and I'm willing to support my townreads if I also dislike their targets and reasses after the reactions come in. Let me know about your new reads.

@BBT
Explain what you don't like about Mastin's post.

[copper223]

I think Mastin's town or playing pro town for today btw.

Do you know if her read on Beast is accurate? Cause it seems genuine to me, giving that kind of read otherwise is suicide.

[copper223]

@Dodgy

Yes. If dave flips scum, id probably think youre not his scumbuddy, so either SK or town.
If town, Id be more confident youre anti-town.

and people think im giving myself a way out??? you set yourself up here so that you can vote me whichever way dave flips...

also interesting that you dont include what happens if dave flips as SK. you clearly know there is a SK yet dont include it? why?

Dodgy, your point about voting for you either way I dig, but that question aboout Dave I dislike, why do you think forgetting about the SK is alignment indicative?

[copper223]

Okay, I've seen it, Mastin.
Having no read of my own, I believe in your BBT read now.

What happened to the previous read you had on him?

Are you trying to trick me here Aneninen, cause your game really looks like my previous experience with you down to quoting Copper and my post about Wicked wasn't that great, so you are either too much of a Copper fan or forcing the similarity.

[copper223]

Fair enough, it was half joke half reaction test.

[copper223]

Heartless (TTH side), what's your read on:

- Dave
- Aneninen
- Eyes vs Dodgy

[copper223]

@Eyes
If you're town you are in a prime position to ferret out scum so give it your best.

On the other hand I don't believe you wrote this sequentially as you'd like us to believe, because I've seen you online a few times and you have been active on the forum, so unless for reasons unknown you decided not zo review this thread in particular your post strikes me as manipulative on your part, not a good start.

[copper223]

I think it's curious he mentions SK as a possible flip, I can see you thinking it's a possible slip because he "knows" there is one in the game so I like the explaination, my best guess is it is more related to what Killa said about Eyes playing in a way that covers his hindquarters, this doesn't have to be scum indicative but often is.

[copper223]

I'm not a fan of Anti (Heartless) for pushing back on Mastin because she wants to hear where they're at by the way, seems perfectly natural to me, finishing almost all of his posts saying he is short on time and has to go do this or that is starting to sound like a preemptive defense as well and he also mentioned Dodgy/Eyes as a pair, sheeping the general read that they are both scummy without, it seems, giving too much thought about their individual alignments or exposing himself by giving a read on the situation.

[copper223]

@mod: please prod Tean

[copper223]

@Tean
Dodgy/Eyes, tvt tvs svt svs abd why?

[copper223]

@TTH
Fair enough.

@Eyes
Because as town it's usually easier to see who is incorrectly pushing on you and who is trying to frame you when you're on the receiving end.

[copper223]

@TTH
Nice to know you are most likely town this time, when I first read 486... but if Mastin is scum your scumread on me makes perfect sense. I will look into it, first reaction is you are making a lot of sense.

[copper223]

VOTE: Mastin

[copper223]

@Dave
you are so scummy...

[copper223]

You asking TTH if Mastin's outburst is town, when you clearly did the same thing and hinted that it was faked "for strategical reasons" and then self consciously adding that you shouldn't be read as town for it...

[copper223]

Also Vettrock should hurry up and post, I've seen him active elsewhere.

[copper223]

Fair enough, if you are town I don't think it's a good strategy, at least on MS, from what I've seen most agree with me that "showing you are town" is scum indicative.

[copper223]

BBT

[copper223]

@BBT
What's your impression?

(that went out early)

[copper223]

@TTH
Let's leave associations out of it for a moment, what do you think of Aneninen's posts in isolation?

[copper223]

That is

not L-1

and I have no interest to cut the discussion short now

[copper223]

@Heartless
Aneninen is town, just a cursory read-through 573 and the readlists he gives there, full of in my opinion, or according to me, or maybe this maybe that, he doesn't even give the relevant information (town/scum) but hides it in the middle of the reads, his tone is also completely different, much more serious in this game while it's forced friendly/trolly and apologetic there, when people call him mafia there he says stuff along the lines of: good boy, I see you are scumhunting while here he calls you flat out wrong.

[copper223]

You missed the

there

preposition, I'm talking of his readlists in 573, particularly post 111. His readlist now shows he doesn't have much of a clue, if you want to call it horrible fine, but not that he is hiding something or trying to be apologetic about it. I already had a close look at his town game playing scum against him and this is it, I had to check if he can mimic his towngame well as scum and he can't.

[copper223]

I can see him getting better at it, but the differential is pretty big and people don't change their traits, I'd say Aneninen doesn't like playing scum, it's stressful for him and it shows, this will likely never change although it will be harder to spot the more he gets used to it.

[copper223]

@Tean
If there is a difference for you I'd like to hear about it, otherwise their interaction in general

@All
Eyes is purposely not posting in this game at L-2 and I don't like it.

[copper223]

FML with these early claims, remove your votes from Eyes.

[copper223]

Which tells you...what about Dave, exactly?

ESPECIALLY since I have been pushing him?

(Btw, in case you're wondering, I have doubts about dodgy/eyestott being scum theater and lean against it, with dodgy being town and one of my weaker townreads wrong, to be visited at a date in the near-future. However, estott-dave on the other hand......there is an interaction I find quite interesting.)

Mastin I agree with you that following MS criteria he is scummy as fuck, problem is I don't know if these apply to him and as I said I have a town read on Aneninen who says Dave is playing the same way as in the game where Aneninen was scum and got him mislynched.

What that tells me about you is if Dave is scum you are not, I don't think it's very likely you are scum with Aneninen either otherwise he is working against your wagon which would be weird, I don't like that part of the Anti/TTH speculation.

If Dave is town however it's a perfectly decent play for Mastin_Scum to push him, you could tell us and maybe even convince yourself that you would play the same way as town, and the point TTH made about you not blinking about Dave being on the same wagon, while you previously said he re-wrote the book about scumtells in his first post, is well taken, so why didn't you care about that? You think Dave would buss Eyes?

@All
What do you think about Killa, that L-1 in the middle of the discussion about him and Aneninen being on Tean as a possible anchor wagon for scum is a problem for me.

@Heartless
For the record (talking about anchors) is your vote on me for reasons not related to RVS anymore? It would be funny if your own read implicates you.

[copper223]

You are braindead if you think I'm going to lynch a PR claim D1, if it doesn't sort itself we can talk about it when it becomes relevant.

[copper223]

Are you claiming scum?

[copper223]

No, but I'm saying that, if I were scum, I'd likely pick tracker. It's easy to fake, given that in this game, it's just a yes/no of whether the person made an action.

and this is relevant why since you are saying you are legit tracker and you therefore should know we are not scum together?

[copper223]

Yes, the part where BBT says if you are scum so am I? So are you claiming scum with me? I don't really mind a 1v1.

[copper223]

1 for 1 is what I meant there.

[copper223]

Good, I don't need a townread to not lynch you D1, just common sense.

If you are scum you already screwed the pooch and you have at most 2 days left to survive, there is no KP reduction this game so I have no interest in lynching someone that is already a dead man walking if he is scum (there is no prize for winning the game faster), I do have a vested interest in not lynching a possibly town PR when there is very little need to.

FoS BBT for that BS.

[copper223]

Yes, frankly what are you smoking? If my teammate goes ahead and sacks himself like that you think I'm the first to chime in and defend him? If you are town here play with me when I am scum and you will die a happy sod townreading me to your grave.

[copper223]

@Dodgy

ok so i clearly missed the post where eyestott claimed tracker...

UNVOTE:

for the record he fake claimed a cop as scum in my last game with him. however he knows i know that so i doubt he would pull that here if he were scum,
im inclined to believe his claim

This is WIFOM btw, if he knows you would think it is unlikely he would, doing so anyway is a good play.

@All
Tracker is the best fake claim if you are getting lynched as scum because it's the most likely one to net you at least a trade, roughly 4 times out of 10, if there is another tracker they should claim here.

This is all besides the point, the play today unless he gets cc'd is to leave him alone.

[copper223]

the chance of there being another full tracker in this setup is so small it is not worth considering, if someone can cc him he is scum.

[copper223]

You did it wrong

[copper223]

It's a binomial distribution with p= 0.15 and for there to be at least two full trackers you have to get 3 or more successes out of 7, the probability of that happening is roughly 7%.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

[copper223]

Are you now claiming 1-shot?

[copper223]

ok so i clearly missed the post where eyestott claimed tracker...

UNVOTE:

for the record he fake claimed a cop as scum in my last game with him. however he knows i know that so i doubt he would pull that here if he were scum,
im inclined to believe his claim

You replied to the post so how did you miss it?

[copper223]

You being afraid of a cc is scum indicative.

[copper223]

But in the absence of one:

VOTE: Dodgy

[copper223]

the chance of there being another full tracker in this setup is so small it is not worth considering, if someone can cc him he is scum.

[copper223]

@BBT

Will compromise on Mastin or eyestott.

Let's be clear here, as of now you would be willing to compromise on Eyestott as the lynch?

[copper223]

@BBT
Good, this means you are likely town, I am censoring the rest of my observations.

@All

the chance of there being another full tracker in this setup is so small it is not worth considering, if someone can cc him he is scum.

waiting for everyone to post.

[copper223]

@Eyes
While we are waiting, do you still think Dodgy is likely scum?

[copper223]

Copper, 553 – for your information: I was planning to mislynch Davesaz in that game but he claimed a town-PR. (And that claim was detrimental to my already-bad state.) As for KillerPenguin: I think Tean is scum so, if Penguin is scum too, their early fight has been a faking. What do you think? Is it possible?

I think it is unlikely, Killa is looking a lot worse than Tean now.

Cooper, 568 – that is wrong!!!! In this setup there may be another Tracker too! If there is another tracker, claiming it is VERY bad for the town! It's simple math. Check the setup.

The second tracker would be a 1-shot, you are making the same mistake Eyes did, if there is a full tracker out there he should absolutely claim.

[copper223]

I suggest you get a brain, I am trying not to be rude but the shit I have to read...

[copper223]

I suggest you get a brain, I am trying not to be rude but the shit I have to read...

thats ok ill save you the time then

VOTE: copper

[copper223]

I'll sum it up again, just in case one of you has the misfortune of being tracker and is not claiming:

There is a 7% probability of there being 2 full trackers in this setup.

If a tracker cc's here, 93 times out of 100 we have a guaranteed scum lynch within the first two days and close to a 50% chance of lynching scum on our first day.

This play is superior to any other possible lynch you could come up with day 1, in comparison the average lynch rate based on reads is close to the probability of randomly lynching scum (some say even worse), which in this setup averages roughly 25% (half as much).

So if you are tracker it's necessary for you to claim here.

[copper223]

It is not a relevant scenario for deciding what to do, maybe tomorrow the US is going to go bankrupt, let's all not buy treasury bonds anymore because they clearly are unsafe based on this assumption.

[copper223]

@Eyes
You are not considering the case where you are the fake.

[copper223]

@Wicked

If it was too early to say for eyestott, then why wasn’t it “too early to say” for dave? The dave wagon came BEFORE the eyestott bandwagon. I don’t understand anything you said in this post beyond “game analysis and”… I don’t like this response, feels like you are selective when it comes to playing the “can’t be scum, no opposition” card.

Because the Eyestott wagon had just started rolling while Dave's had already built momentum by the time I questioned the lack of resistance, it has nothing to do with the chronological order and everything to do with the time people had to react to it.

What don't you understand? If there are a lot of votes and wagons to analyze late game it is likelier a pattern that shows the votes of some players were planned rather than spontaneous will emerge (2 players never on the same wagon but always townreading each other for instance).

[copper223]

@Wicked
If there is no cc I believe Eyes for today, in this case his read on Dodgy and my personal impression they were both scummy in the exchange, Eyes because the theory arguments he made were bad and Dodgy because he was scumreading Eyes for every second sentence, make Dodgy a good lynch for today. I do not believe they are scum together nor did I, I did find them both scummy individually.

[copper223]

A place where scum park their votes while waiting to see on whom they should jump on.

[copper223]

He was not at L-1 and nobody stated intent to hammer on him.

[copper223]

That was not me, I told you Aneninen was town.

[copper223]

Eyestott had four votes when you said this. He later got up to L-2, with no opposition other than me, and you still didn't say anything about it - you didn't unvote until his claim. I still think that the eyestott bandwagon had more support than the dave bandwagon. Do you disagree?

I did not like the active lurking Eyes was doing by being active on the forum and not posting in the thread and that was my main focus, I was however not on the wagon when he claimed as I voted Mastin before because I liked the case TTH made on her (and I have an open post to her about it), so that is incorrect. I agree that by the end the Eyes bandwagon had more support.

I have trouble believing this. Dodgy was scum reading Eyes for the theory arguments that he made. So why is it a problem that Dodgy scum read him for every second sentence of that exchange when the entire exchange centered about those theory arguments?

I already explained at the time, there is a difference between questioning someone because you disagree with what they are saying and are trying to find out why they are saying these things and just calling someone out for being scummy at every possible opportunity (the latter is overselling the scumread and it's something that scum with good arguments sometimes do to clueless townies).

[copper223]

who was the one telling me all about how eyestott and dodgy weren't scum together when i mentioned i thought it was scum theater?

i could've sworn it was you...

I never thought they were scum together, I don't think I made it a special point of telling people about it, I remember BBT and Aneninen asking me if I thought they were a team and I said I had individual scumreads on them.

He was not at L-1 and nobody stated intent to hammer on him.

that's not a hard and fast rule. common sense can allow someone to claim earlier. with a few days to deadline, eyestott's timing doesn't bother me.

It should be, what common sense is that, if you don't have to reaveal you are a PR you shouldn't, I guess if we had 1 day to decide on a lynch I could see your point but it is not the case here, that's more a debate about correct play rather than something alignment indicative though.

[copper223]

I got a town lean from Mastin's rant by the way, I was having similar (arrogant ) thoughts when reading BBT's posts about Aneninen, Eyes and I being scum, kind of like how dare you call me scum for playing like this, it is insulting you would even think it, and I get the same vibes from Mastin to TTH.

[copper223]

I thought it was rather suspicious that eyestott had percentages ready at hand. Also bothers me that all the stats posted so far before Heartless are on how unlikely the 2nd tracker is, while avoiding the issue of how likely it is to be fake and there be no I's.

1. Eyes did not have percentages at hand, in fact he said he went and did the math.
2. Really, and the explaination that the second probability (0 I's) only becomes relevant once we know nobody is going to cc while the first one (3 I's or more) was much more relevant at the time since the debate was about whether a second tracker should claim or not, seems very outlandish to you?

[copper223]

@Dave

OK, TBH I didn't go back and re-read. I got the impression that the focus on numbers happened pretty fast, but maybe "ready at hand" is too strong.

I place a higher importance on the probability that it's fake vs. real. Focusing on the probability of a 2nd tracker is akin to talking yourself into not expecting a CC to be possible, which leads to fallacious bias toward confirming the claim. It's a roughly 2/3 true 1/3 false regardless of another tracker claim.

If another tracker claimed, since if scum does you have to assume bad play and why would you, it definitely would not be 2/3 1/3, where does this come from?

[copper223]

Copper, 553 – for your information: I was planning to mislynch Davesaz in that game but he claimed a town-PR. (And that claim was detrimental to my already-bad state.) As for KillerPenguin: I think Tean is scum so, if Penguin is scum too, their early fight has been a faking. What do you think? Is it possible?

I think it is unlikely, Killa is looking a lot worse than Tean now.

Cooper, 568 – that is wrong!!!! In this setup there may be another Tracker too! If there is another tracker, claiming it is VERY bad for the town! It's simple math. Check the setup.

The second tracker would be a 1-shot, you are making the same mistake Eyes did, if there is a full tracker out there he should absolutely claim.

I'm not sure how you can say that. Tean dropping off the radar doesn't make me scum. Didn't you practically ask trackers to out themselves in day 1?

Tean's alignment is irrelevant for my read on you, my problem is that L-1 vote and the fact both you and Aneninen were shadow backing the Eyes wagon.

Yes and I explained why, do you dissgree or are you just trying to make me look scummy for it?

[copper223]

I also really dislike Aneninen's reassesment of my read based on the Eyes wagon, I don't buy it because he was more than happy about it at the time and he sheeped my Dave read about there being a scum on Dave if he is town and not vice versa, it looks more like my townread was conditioanl on how I view either Killa or Dave or both, well if you are is scum good job making me look like a clown.

[copper223]

@BBT
Let's talk about your Tean read for a moment, since you just went from Tean is super town and at least one of the players voting for him, Aneninen and Killa, are scum (with the utmost confidence), to I am coming around to Tean scum, what's the thought process there?

[copper223]

I saw no transition passage, I don't care about who else you think is scum, I am playing this game assuming you suck balls but maybe I am doing you a disservice, so explain to me what in particular in Tean's play or the facts surrounding him made you come around to view him as potentially scummy.

[copper223]

The point of the question is to understand if you suck.

[copper223]

@Heartless
Here's my reply to your case, which I will give you props, you at least bothered to make.

the interactions w/ this hydra (between me and tth) alone is pretty sketch because the progression is nonsensical and the disparity between the treatment of the heads is strikingly random. he was scumreading me Post 469 for reasons that were pretty much, "i don't like him and his posting style" and, specifically, he didn't like how i was pushing you because he viewed your line of questioning as something valid, so OBVIOUSLY he put some kind of credence into your opinion

There are two things here I never said and you should tell me how you reached these conclusion:

- I have no particular like or dislike of your posting style, nor do I like or dislike any posting style (maybe I'm not a big fan of giant walls one after the other) so this has nothing to do with how I viewed you early game, which was characterized by that associative read Dave dropped on you in lieu of any actual content from you guys, so why do you think I do?

- OBVIOUSLY is not very obvious to me, my own opinion of the matter is that asking you to contribute can only be seen as townie or neutral, the fact you were scumreading her for it and went on whining about why she picked you in particular instead of going on the Dodgy/Eyes theatre was also strange, as if you can only point out one thing at a time, so I did not like that post and I said so, this is not directly connected to Mastin's alignment so why do you make the connection?

things change. somehow when she puts a bib on him and starts the spoonfeeding
,your reads actually DON'T track so great anymore and the whole "this is mastin-town's meta" fantasy that we were hearing about earlier in the game burns to the ground RIGHT quick.

I had an early townlean on Mastin because she was or gave the appearance of scumhunting, I also thought and still think her Dave read has merit, it is either a good effort from a townie or a nice wagon for scum to pick. TTH's point about Mastin not hesitating to go on the Eyestott wagon was something I myself missed, having played some games with TTH from the scumside I respect her reads a lot so "why not follow her and see where this goes" where my thoughts at the time. Mastin btw you still haven't replied to that post.

hell, for all that, the interactions w/ tth aren't great either. more than anything all he did was slam the breaks on pushing me once he saw her coming. for the lip service about how he thought she was town, there's not much actual cooperation going, and any questioning is fairly superficial and doesn't have any follow up (see: thoughts on dave and eyestott vs dodgy). she went through the trouble of hashing out her townreads in Post 504 and copper doesn't seem to give two shits. what was it, didn't want to pick on someone his own size? b/c the dynamic i'm seeing RIGHT NOW between two people who are supposed to have a rapport from previous games is pretty goddamn dysfunctional and it looks like he's afraid of her because all the interactions are about as deep as a dime.

TTH is town to me if her cases make sense, I have watched your SK game and think I have some idea of how she plays as scum and this level of deep analysis about Mastin and the unique read she gave about Dodgy/Eyes being both town, when the common read floating around was to call them both scummy (either as you did in concert, or sheeping my read that they both looked scummy for different reasons) is to me indicative of her town game, I think supporting her on Mastin to see where that led is more than proof enough about me trying to interact with my townreads, if she is not here to play I can't interact with her live, that is true, also that I'm afraid to pick on good players, you know shit...

he rxn to the eyestott claim in Post 549 is also very NOT town b/c it overplays the indignation about an "early" claim and the needless "FML" stands in HUGE contrast to this whole "logic-y" persona that's been going the whole game. coppers been on him nearly the whole game, but somehow he now wants to look at me and argue that MAYBE IN THE VERY SMALL WINDOW OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND DEADLINE he was going to change his mind and ease up off eyestott which is disingenuous at best.

This is not a bad point, I made that comment because I was annoyed about a possible PR outing D1, I think it's true it's unlikely I would have let on Eyes before the end of D1 because to me if you are active on the forum and ignoring a particular thread when you have every interest to post your thoughts your are likely hiding something and that is scum indicaitve, this is my problem now, in the absence of a cc I logic suggests I believe Eyestott, but that means at least some of my previous reads are wrong, I think you can see the re-evaluation going on. If you look at the period of time in question I think you can see genuine emotion from me, I also disagree about being a logic driven player only.

...and for his apparent distaste for my glibness to mastin, he seems to gave gotten the art of potshot attacks perfected. case in point, Post 713 re: anen. a while back, i got taken
down
to
clown
town
and told that anen WAS SO BEAUTIFULLY TOWN because of style from two previous games (one of which he wasn't even there for). what did it take for this journey to meta never-never land to go to doo-doo?
anen taking his townread back
(coincidentally, this is the most town anen's been all game)

...and all the sudden BTT SUCKS, GUYS...

cutting off threats seems to be an important thing now. wonder how long it's going to take copper to start magically "scumreading" me.

A potshot on myself? I think you should re-read that. Also BBT

suddenly

sucks? Again I think you should re-read, this part of the case is pretty garbage.

[copper223]

@Eyes
I have re-read what TTH said about you vs Dodgy and scum often labelling svt arguments as town against town which is something

[copper223]

stupid phone.

[copper223]

@Eyes
I have re-read what TTH said about you vs Dodgy and scum often labelling svt arguments as tvt is something I can agree with, and based on the number of players that latched onto the read that both you and Dodgy are scummy, I think, assuming you are town and din't just get lucky with the claim, that your scumread on Dodgy may be town OMGUS.

My preffered scumread, going off of Eyes town, is Killa, that L-1 while the idea of you and Aneninen being a team was floating around looks like a rushed attempt to end the day, your post to me seems more of an attempt to make me look scummy than to actually try and figure out something, it also assumes I consider Tean town, something that never was implied, but maybe something you already know.

VOTE: Killapenwin

If Eyes is town and Killa is scum, a likely team is Killa, Aneninen and Dave.

[copper223]

@BBT
If my read has merit it will gain traction, if it doesn't I wilk think of compromises. Explain the developpment of your read on Tean.

@Aneninen
Why are the people that were on the Eyes wagon, but not Killa the most opportunistic amongst us, people you are now considering as scum?

[copper223]

Man that is depressing to hear, my solution in these cases is to grab a drink hopefully with a friend and forget about it for a while.

[copper223]

@Heartless
Here it is, and the more I re-read his ISO the more I think I was right to begin with.

135 gave me a townlean because his posts have the same feel they had in our previous game together when he was town, in particular the fact he mentioned and used direct meta to give a read on Dave, the player that was currently being scumread is what I consider valuable information, something that scum only in rare cases wants to give away (for instance if Dave is Aneninen's teammate). I also did not notice he actually was the first to postulate the theory of one scum on Dave, which makes perfect sense from Town_Aneninen, the fact he mentioned it in reverse was something I did not like later and that was my bad because I forgot of this.

I'm fine with him and I get a stronger town lean in 406, I had in mind a possible Aneninen Dave connection and that's why I asked him to give me a % of Dave town, and Scum_Aneninen saying his teammate is 90% town seemed a very risky thing to do, so I thought it was more likely they either were both town or Aneninen was giving an incorrect read on Dave despite himself.

417 very mildy pings me, because in our previous game together Aneninen thought I was pretty townie D1, so he sometimes quoted what I said to give it relevance, the fact he is doing it again here about something I did not really consider game breaking might be an attempt to cement his pocket of Copper in the unlikely (what I believed at the time) scenario that he is scum with Dave. The way he replies to the reaction test (I don't have a clue what you are going on about), seems town.

619 is where I started to question the read, he says in the same paragraph he was waiting to see if someone put Eyes at L-1, which would be particularly scum indicative (but Eyestott is a scumread of his anyway?) and that he doesn't want to go on Killa because of something both he and BBT noticed, I checked back on Killa and I didn't see what he was going on about.

669 was the reason for me posting that if Aneninen is scum he made an excellent job out of fooling me, it seemed clear to me at the time one of the main reasons I switched from Dave to Eyes was my interaction with Aneninen and the townread we shared, it was me saying if you're telling me you're sure about Dave I respect that and I'll go for one of the other players that pinged us both. I was not expecting him to, in my eyes at least, misrep that into Copper just jumped on Eyes without considering him much before, which I don't think is true as I spent quite some time explaining what I didn't like from him and from Dodgy when asked to give my scumreads by BBT. It looked like I had bene manipulated into leaving the Dave wagon and now Aneninen was using this, writing our interaction off, to paint scum on me, I think I said it best with the making a clown out me comment.

The last part of his ISO looks town again, so idk what to think about it anymore.

[copper223]

@Mastin
Vote me for that reason and I'll asume you are scum, I don't think I'm the kind of player you want to write off out of apathy in case I am town and I think you in particular have a good shot at deciding whether I am town or scum here so put some effort into it and decide.

[copper223]

Can you please call your sister and let her play?

[copper223]

@killa

I have no problem with the choice of target

Explain this.

[copper223]

Can you please call your sister and let her play?

she said she'd probably get to this later tonight

looks like you're stuck with me for now mr sugarpants

Very well, please reply to the first two points I made in 727

[copper223]

I am saying I would not have liked that post if you directed it to Davesaz, my biggest scumread at the time, my read on Mastin at the time (which I already told you was leaning town) is besides the point and I want to know why you made that connection.

[copper223]

@Killa
When Heartless presented his anchor wagon theory, I went, re-read Aneninen, and told him he was wrong, are you saying I'm now trying to "curry favour" as you put it by being inconsistent about it? Very smart of me.

How was I responsible for his early claim? I actually wrote a post saying it was not L-1.

The fact you tried to put him at L-1 there, assuming he is town, makes you objectively the most likely scum in this game, all the rest is window dressing and speculation, if Heartless is right on you and Aneninen and my read there was bad even better, but it's certainly not the reason why I changed my read on you, why are you picturing it this way?

Then you have a problem understanding this game if you are town, once he claimed, as I have already explained multiple times, it was necessary for a second tracker (provided he exists) to claim as well.

[copper223]

usually when you call someone down for a bad attack, it stands to reason the attack-ee is more likely town than not.

you also said something about how mastin's line of questioning was "valid" or something like that, so it stands to reason you were townreading mastin, yes?

Not because her line of questioning was valid, I said I thought Dodgy might be scum although the theory points he was debating with Eyes were all in his favour (hence valid), but ok I buy this.

[copper223]

@copper what was your reason for abandoning the eyestott wagon? I don't see a reason for it just a change of to vote Mastin with no reason.

@heartless I am not believing eyestotts claim and doubt he will survive the night if he is town, I also think his death could shed some light on potential scum. I have not seen a vote count in a while and am happy to vote copper, whichever is more viable as a lynch.

As I already said, after TTH came out with her first analysis post of the game I found the usual content I have come to expect from her as town, her point about Mastin joining the Eyestott wagon despite Davesaz, a player she said threw out the book as far as scumreads go, when from her pov the Dave wagon should have been far superior, was well taken and I decided it was worth investigating.

Why is that unclear to you?

I am noticing a trend here in me answering your questions and you ignoring mine, this is the last freebie you get.

[copper223]

@BBT
The question was, tell me how your read on Aneninen this game developped, not what is your current read of Aneninen.

[copper223]

That is my question to you which you haven't answered and I advise you to do so, the question which I replied to was from Heartless and is as mentioned.

[copper223]

I am going to vig shoot you.

[copper223]

Do you? I have no idea.

[copper223]

Here's the situation:

- I am vengeful so my lynch isn't too bad for town and that was plan b), we can pick a second player we find scummy, I think BBT is a fine choice, at worst we get rid of useless town and it is unusual for him to get this many town reads, the style of posting he has been going with, the point by point catch-up is also a departure from town BBT as I know him, the fact he says he usually pays more attention as scum is an interesting note, but am open to suggestions that do not involve Eyestott, I am also very skeptical about the claim but not willing to shoot a possible PR.

I blame TTH for not being around if they are town because that ruined my plan a) after I joined this game just cause she asked me to, thanks bud, the best strat was to play scummy enough to potentially survive to lylo and more or less seal the win by baiting a quick hammer, that's why I naked voted and followed reads a lot, she should have known I don't play like this as scum and could relieve some pressure but her brother can't read me or is pushing a scum agenda, I think the first is more likely.

Rather than rush a bad deadline lynch, tell me who you think I should take out of the game and why.

[copper223]

I think you are either anti town as usual or scum, both are not too bad to remove from the game, unless someone comes up with a good scumread.

[copper223]

I don't care about looking town, I care about getting the best out of the current situation.

@All
Ignore the dead man walking.

[copper223]

@Dodgy
Beast is a terrible kill as it offers no information if he is town and yi hsve rarely seen scum hardcore lurking like that, he said it best with the I am useless but not scummy comment, I can get behind a Dave kill if that's what most of you find useful.

[copper223]

Orly, you pissed me off enough this game I wouldn't be at all sure about it if I were you.

[copper223]

I waited to see if there was going to be a shift after I softed to Mastin and she tried to move it off of me, but since there wasn't and I agree that deadline lynches are bad for town this became the next best play, I would not have claimed any other power role but if we are going to use mine we might as well get the most out of it.

I also am still unsure if Mastin is town for it or she was happy killing me off during the night so I wanted to share this, personally I am leaning town.

[copper223]

BBT I understand comprehending the difference between the two claims is beyond you, do yourself a favour and concentrate on making a good case on Aneninen.

[copper223]

Also out of game, Anti I don't know what gave you the impression I don't like you but that is not the case! Like TTH you are too hard on yourself.

My game persona changes depending on what I want to do in a game and I wanted TTH for tactical reasons, if that's why

[copper223]

@Killa
Where did yo see Mastin claiming Dave was mainly a reaction test? Mastin is still voting Dave, I think that's a real scumread for her (unless she is mafia).

I did think Eyestott was possibly mafia at the time, Anti's claim that I would have probably lynched him if he did not claim PR is probably true, but I wanted to see if TTH was onto something with Mastin, and it fitted with my overall gameplan of being generally jumpy and scummy enough that scum would not lynch me.

[copper223]

That particular point is consistent with me being scum based on the meta she has on me, everything else isn't.

- Me being buddies with Eyes (BBT and Killa's theory), not in a million years.

- Me being buddies with Aneninen, also extremely unlikely.

- Just the number of neutral or scumreads on me would be enough to raise alarm bells or she would have to assume I am really off this game.

I did pipe up, I called her town for those posts.

All this is irrelevant, I claimed so you can all focus on a second name, not waste time on deciding if you want to kill me or not, either ending up on a random guy that is easy to push like vettrock or on me and I take the shot with less information.

[copper223]

I am not suggesting that you asking for a claim was scummy. I was referring to the comment that eyestott claimed before intent to hammer was declared. I think by copper.

Who is this addressed to?

[copper223]

@Heartless
I also asked Vettrock to post.

Not much to go on, his readlist, while not very informative, also failed to pursue any of the agendas scum would have been on at the time.
- Town reading Eyes.
- Town reading me.
- Town reading Aneninen but scumreading Dave.

so he is either:
- of the too cautious to be very useful to his team scum variety and just sitting there without interacting with them
- maybe scum with Eyes
- weak D1 town

if I had to guess it's more likely he is town. Why is he more attention worthy than say Beast?

[copper223]

Fair enough, to me it's more likely it has to do with Vettrock not being a D1 player rather than being scum but I like that read.

[copper223]

@Dave

@Mastin
Vote me for that reason and

I'll asume you are scum

, I don't think I'm the kind of player you want to write off out of apathy in case I am town and I think you in particular have a good

shot

at deciding whether I am town or scum here so put some effort into it and decide.

Gun

to head?

Town.

Explain why you think vengeful is the best fake claim.

[copper223]

Mastin likely understood what I was implying, that was another reason I decided to claim.

[copper223]

@Dave
Are you seriously presenting the idea that every wagon that ended with a claim today was on a town and every player on it was town as well, so the people left over are mafia? I'd say that is almost as likely as you getting hit by a meteorite in the next 15 seconds.

[copper223]

DAVE VOTE COUNT

davesaz (1) - Mastin page 3

davesaz (4) - Mastin Copper Wicked Dodgy page 7

davesaz claims VT page 7

davesaz (5) - Mastin Copper Wicked Dodgy Tean page 8

davesaz (4) - Mastin Wicked Dodgy Tean page 8 start Copper unvotes

davesaz (5) - Mastin Wicked Dodgy Tean Eyestott page 8 middle Eyes votes

davesaz (4) - Mastin Wicked Tean Eyestott page 8 right after Dodgy unvotes

After this the focus started shifting to the Dodgy/Eyestott debate.

[copper223]

DAVE VOTE COUNT

davesaz (1) - Mastin page 3

davesaz (4) - Mastin Copper Wicked Dodgy page 7

davesaz claims VT page 7

davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Copper, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, page 8

davesaz (4) - Mastin2, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, page 9 start Copper unvotes

L-2 davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, eyestott

page 9 middle Eyes votes

davesaz (4) - Mastin2, Wicked, Tean, eyestott page 9 right after Dodgy unvotes

L-2 davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, Copper

page 12

After this the focus started shifting to the Dodgy/Eyestott debate.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Eyestott VOTE COUNT

eyestott (1) - Dodgy page 5 he then unvotes for Dave, no action until page 13 where he revotes

eyestott (2) - Dodgy, BBT page 16

eyestott (4) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper davesaz page 17

L-2 eyestott (5) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper, davesaz, Mastin

page 18

eyestott (4) - Dodgy, BBT, davesaz, Mastin page 20 Copper votes Mastin

L-2 eyestott (5) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper, davesaz, Killapenwen

page 21 Killa thinks he put eyestott at L-1

Eyestott claims Tracker page 22

Dodgy unvotes on page 23, BBT on page 24 to vote Aneninen and the wagon loses momentum.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Copper VOTE COUNT

Copper (1) - Heartless page 2 no action till page 25

Copper (2) - Heartless, Dodgy page 25

Copper (2) - Heartless, Dodgy page 27 Dodgy unvotes to vote Tean

Copper (2) - Heartless, BBT page 29

Copper (3) - Heartless, BBT, Killapenwen page 31

Copper (4) - Heartless, BBT, Killapenwen Dave

page 34

Copper (3) - BBT, Killapenwen, Dave, page 34 Heartless has voted and unvoted for quick bursts, here he votes Dave.

[copper223]

That was boring as fuck.

[copper223]

DAVE VOTE COUNT

davesaz (1) - Mastin page 3

davesaz (4) - Mastin Copper Wicked Dodgy page 7

davesaz claims VT page 7

davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Copper, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, page 8

davesaz (4) - Mastin2, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, page 9 start Copper unvotes

L-2 davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wicked, Dodgy, Tean, eyestott

page 9 middle Eyes votes

davesaz (4) - Mastin2, Wicked, Tean, eyestott page 9 right after Dodgy unvotes

L-2 davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, Copper

page 12

After this the focus started shifting to the Dodgy/Eyestott debate.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Eyestott VOTE COUNT

eyestott (1) - Dodgy page 5 he then unvotes for Dave, no action until page 13 where he revotes

eyestott (2) - Dodgy, BBT page 16

eyestott (4) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper davesaz page 17

L-2 eyestott (5) - Dodgy, BBT, Copper, davesaz, Mastin

page 18

eyestott (4) - Dodgy, BBT, davesaz, Mastin page 20 Copper votes Mastin

L-2 eyestott (5) - Dodgy, BBT, davesaz, Mastin Killapenwen

page 21 Killa thinks he put eyestott at L-1

Eyestott claims Tracker page 22

Dodgy unvotes on page 23, BBT on page 24 to vote Aneninen and the wagon loses momentum.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Copper VOTE COUNT

Copper (1) - Heartless page 2 no action till page 25

Copper (2) - Heartless, Dodgy page 25

Copper (2) - Heartless, Dodgy page 27 Dodgy unvotes to vote Tean

Copper (2) - Heartless, BBT page 29

Copper (3) - Heartless, BBT, Killapenwen page 31

Copper (4) - Heartless, BBT, Killapenwen Dave

page 34

Copper (3) - BBT, Killapenwen, Dave, page 34 Heartless has voted and unvoted for quick bursts, here he votes Dave.

[copper223]

Case 1: all three major wagons today were town (this is by far the least likely case but the easiest to VCA, I'm starting here mainly for future flip reference)

davesaz

-

Mastin2

, Wickedestjr, Dodgy, Tean,

eyestott

davesaz

-

Mastin2

, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo,

eyestott

,

Copper

eyestott

-

Dodgy

, BBT,

Copper

,

davesaz

,

Mastin2

eyestott

-

Dodgy

, BBT,

davesaz

,

Mastin2

,

Killapenwen

Copper

- Heartless, BBT,

Killapenwen

,

davesaz

Dodgy was on the Copper wagon and stated he would lynch me, Mastin stated she would also lynch me if there was no alternative.

In this, very unlikely scenario, Dodgy and Mastin2 have a very high chance of being scum, Killa is also more likely scum than not.

[copper223]

Case 2: davesaz is scum

- In this case it is likely Mastin and Eyestott are town

Case 3: eyestott is scum

- In this case it is likely Dave, Dodgy and Mastin are town.

The VCA really doesn't support both Eyes and Dave being town, so if you lynch me I'm going to shoot dave.

[copper223]

I just finished my analysis and grabbed the iPad while moving to make myself a coffee

VOTE: dave

L-2

[copper223]

Lol ofc.

[copper223]

I'm going to try a who is scum with dave and who is scum with eyes next and see if that gives a clearer picture.

[copper223]

- Dave's wagon failed, at least from my pov, becuase Aneninen told me he was town, that's when I gave my both Dodgy and Eyes look scummy in their interaction read and when the two of them started to get more attention.

- The wagon on Eyes failed because he claimed tracker.

- My wagon stalled when I claimed vengeful.

I've gotta say, following my reads this game I really want to lynch or shoot Eyestott.

[copper223]

@Killa

So you are now reading eyes as scum??

I always said that was my read, but if the guy claims tracker and doesn't get cc'd you start by assuming he is town, didn't you see the massive reassesment I made with my reads, if he is town you are likely scum (I had you as town before), if he is town Aneninen is more likely to be scum (I had him as town before) etc etc...

[copper223]

@Killa
Do you OMGUS a lot in your town games?

Because a lot of your play, one way or the other, was about OMGUS today. It's true that voting on your for no reason is potentially scummy, but the fear you expressed about a wagon forming on you so early in the game is a bit strange for a townie, the way you tunneled on Tean because of the vote was also pretty harsh, our interaction together as well, you decided to vote for me basically a page after I scumread you, you can say what you like to rationalize it (if you are town) but to me the main reason was me scumreading you first, so another OMGUS.

Problem is I have seen players do this as town as well.

[copper223]

Oh right I just noticed in them vote counts you have put both Dave and Eyes at L-2, isn't that similar to what you are voting me for?

You have a point.

[copper223]

davesaz (5) -Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, Mastin2, Heartless, Copper

[copper223]

How many here would still be willing to lynch Eyestott?

[copper223]

VOTE: Eyestott at the end of the day you have to trust your reads most and they are telling me he is scum despite getting lucky.

[copper223]

I can always go for the hero shot or egg in the face if you get me lynched, or it won't be on me if we end up on Dave and it's a mislynch, the important part for me is I won't support lynching someone when I don't believe he is scum just because it's the easy way out.

[copper223]

The first point was the VCA I did and finding out there is a pretty slim chance of both Dave and Eyes being town, before doing it I hadn't realized that was the case. Once you assume one is scum and one is town I went through the people supporting either one or the other and I noticed I was always reading the dave supporters as town in isolation, only the fact Eyes claimed tracker was changing my read on them, and as I said that's the wrong approach, if your reads tell you a) and a claim tells you b), you should listen to your reads or you should play another game.

[copper223]

This definitely feels as if copper is purposefully voting for a wagon that he knows will not happen, to increase the chance of a no lynch.

This conclusion is ridiculous.

I understand conditional probability, I don't understand your point, Pr(0 Ts | a CC) is the probability of there being no trackers given someone counterclaimed (hence we have 2 claims), unless someone has been smoking tons of weed I would well hope that is a solid 0, but how is that in any way relevant? That would also mean you are lying to begin with if we apply it to this scenario.

I understand you are damned if you do damned if you don't if you are scum here, but if it is up to me I am taking the shot.

[copper223]

Looks good to me

[copper223]

@Wicked

I REALLY don’t like this. Blaming Heartless for not being able to read you when you deliberately alter your play? I would expect someone to scum read you for playing scummy on purpose. There’s another hole in your plan: “play scummy enough” and “survive to lylo” - those don’t go together. I think you should know that drastically altering your play as a pr is usually a bad thing. I don’t buy this.

And the crumb is ridiculous too. The phrases “have a good shot” and “gun to head” are both perfectly ordinary.

Vengeful is a good claim for scum because it’s not at all testable. Also, at this point in the game, even if you are town, your power has no benefit. It doesn’t increase the number of kills that town has control over - a vengekill would simply replace our day 2 lynch. But I’d much rather have a day 2 lynch.

TTH only has completed games with me as scum and this is not how I play it, so I did not alter my scum meta as far as she knows, I have played in what can superfically be classified as a scummy fashion by voting a lot of players and wagon hopping, did you see how many players I have been scumreading this game, basically everyone minus Beast, Tean and Vettrock, and those because of lack of content, and you because the way you have been analysing this game is pretty pro town so likely coming from a town as well, this is going to change right about now because I am on the same page as mastin with a team of:

Tean/Vettrock and my personal favourite Eyestott.

For your enjoyment this is my latest scumgame, where I have a 100% score: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=60122

Does that look in any way comparable to you?

As for your wagon comment on Eyestott, your point is I did not see the same, or worse, wagon dynamics going on with Eyes, I'm telling you I did not notice the same lack of resistance in his wagon that I got from Dave, if your interpretation is correct, likely because when Dave was getting driven to L-2 nothing else was going on, during the Eyestott wagon period we had other reads floating about like Heartless saying he liked Aneninen and Killa as scum, the absence of a vote count also made it harder to see how quickly Eyes was driven to L-2 the first time, after I left the wagon my main concern moved to TTH's case on Mastin and if she was onto something, until Killa erroneously put Eyes to L-1 and I went back to check on the Eyes play and found he was actively lurking, that sums it up for me.

As for the VCA being useless to you, it may be now, but once you get a flip on one of us please don't forget to check back on it, I also have the advantage of knowing my own alignment so it's more meaningful for me and I think it's unlikely all 3 wagons were on townies.

@All
If Eyestott is scum you should revisit Wicked as well, from his play alone he looks pretty town but he is defending him pretty strongly.

[copper223]

VOTE: Tean

If I can't lynch Eyes I think Tean is his most likely teammate, if you lynch me I can kill eyes so this is likely the best I can do.

If you lynch Dave and he flips scum I'm gone tomorrow but have a good idea who to kill, so that's fine, if you lynch Dave and he flips town I can pursue Eyes tomorrow again, only the shitty case where all three wagons were on town and Mastin/Dodgy were behind the pushes would royally screw us but I don't think that's where we are at, if scum kills me in this scenario Eyes is pretty much dead tomorrow (please town don't fuck this one up).

[copper223]

@TTH
Do you think BBT is scum here?

[copper223]

@Heartless
The question here is not is davesaz a good ar a bad mafia player, the question is did he roll scum this game.

[copper223]

It's telling me he thinks giving the appeareance of being town is a good thing to do regardless of alignment and hence playstile (bad at that).

I also find it unlikely scum has the balls to say they played a flawless town game in davesaz's position.

[copper223]

Like was he like this in his other games as well or not?

[copper223]

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Dodgy, Tean, eyestott

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, Copper

davesaz - Tean Samargo, Mastin2, Heartless, beastcharizard, Wickedestjr

=> 8 individual players willing to sit on a L-2 davesaz lynch, is scum bussing or inactive? This looks like a town mislynch to me.

[copper223]

The players left out are Aneninen, BBT, Killa and Vettrock, only Vettrock is potential scum for me.

[copper223]

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Dodgy,

Tean Samargo, eyestott

davesaz - Mastin2, Wickedestjr,

Tean Samargo, eyestott

, Copper

davesaz -

Tean Samargo

, Mastin2, Heartless, beastcharizard, Wickedestjr

This is what jumps up to me, I have seen Mastin and Wicked trying to drive the Dave lynch home for a while now, and Heartless is fast becoming the third champion, but where is the push from Tean when he has always been willing to lynch the guy?

Paraphrasing TTH, Tean's real estate is not that dedicated to Dave to justify the kind of omnipresent scumread on him that the votes imply, so his position in particular looks pretty opportunistic to me, when you add there is some sort of concert going on with Eyestott this becomes easily my second choice if you don't want to lynch Eyestott.

I don't know why Vettrock said Eyestott is for sure town to him so he is my best bet for the last one, it would still be a lynch with a lot of downside if we get it wrong because the information this flip would provide if he is town is minimal.

[copper223]

@Heartless
There is a huge difference between managing to push one wagon to 7 once, which generally happens by compromise at the deadline (usually with the help of scum) where some votes on beauty wagons shift around to make it happe , and getting a player 3 times in a day with mixed wagons to 5.

[copper223]

@Dodgy
Why are you pretty sure Eyes is town?

[copper223]

@Heartless
Also Dave as scum derails the main opposing wagon?

[copper223]

It's alarming to me how well reasoned davesaz sounds in these last few pages, where was this persona earlier today?

[copper223]

VOTE: davesaz

Let's ger this over with before we actually get a no lynch.

[copper223]

VOTE: Heartless
You know too much this game. Mastin is also likely scum, I need to think about what Dodgy's death means and why Killa and Wicked just opened up on Beast in particular.

[copper223]

@TTH
More like when you suspect me it's hard to be objective...

Anti was driving the mislynches yesterday, he pushed a little on me and super hard on Dave at the end, you were not scumreading either and you previously made that really good post about Eyes and Dodgy that made me townread you, but funnily enough the vote on Dave stayed. That's very not TTH, I would expect you to come in and change it if you did not agree, instead by the time you started to express doubts the damage had been done. What Anti said about our interaction being sketchy, as a means to scumread me, is also true, where is our usual banter in this game?

This is how I see it (admittedly I couldn't check if Dodgy clumsily crumbed because of work, but barring that) the Eyestott kill is the optimal scum kill, the Dodgy kill is the SK messing with scum, I think Mastin is the SK and thinks Anti is scum, that comment about his scumhunting being fake as fuck when he is not town seems game related and the way they were discussing who to go on at the end of the day does not look like town interaction.

Killapen is back to being scummy (my reads this game have been embarassing), he asked me yesterday what he needed to do to prove himself, why would you say that to the guy you think is fake claiming? Also Beast? Yesterday was at the very least a mafia sided or more likely a mafia driven town, the guy was lurking, why is he suspect numero 1? Does not compute.

As for the third I just got negative vibes from Wicked's first post, is beast the designated mislynch for today?

[copper223]

@TTH
It's more that one side of the hydra is threat mitigation and the other is pushing scum agenda. I'll read the links during a very boring 3hrs train ride I need to take... sigh.

[copper223]

Yes but I have no idea if they are genuine or not, nor am I blaming if you are town, look at my reads...

[copper223]

@BBT
No reason to answer other than say you should look at your own play before criticizing others, maybe you would improve more.

@TTH
As if I would randomly go around insulting players or assume I know something about your interactions behind the scenes, all that ment was one of the two heads of the hydra was giving town reads that have proven to be almost 100% accurate and the other has botched both major pushes he made yesterday and started out with what looked like a questionable push on Mastin, which makes it plausible it's a strategy on your part if you are scum that one side of the hydra takes the heat and the other then makes people switch back to townreading you, because that's what happened to my personal read, so even when Anti was pushing on Dave or me for reasons I did not agree with and that seemed forced at times I was still townreading the hydra overall.

It would be a nifty way to play it, but of course I was instead insulting your brother's intelligence apparently or failing to understand he is a stubborn person, when if anything (assuming intelligence correlates to game savvy which I already find very questionable) if you are town I was wrongly diminishing you by saying you're good, but usually not that good, especially in a game you claim you only have had an auxilary function in.

@Killa
Clearly lynching me with 2 known PR's and me being alive today (which implies no vig.), when we know there are at least 4 town PR's because of the SK, is as boneheaded as the rest of town's play this game. It would totally be a relief believe me, at this point I'm trying to make sense of this game solely because I accepted I would play to my win conditions when I signed in and I am not the kind of person to ruin someone else's entertainment out of spite because I personally am having 0 fun with it, I was actually more happy working on a due diligence before I read this stuff.

[copper223]

I can find only 1 very minor role tell on Dodgy when he says he is not endorsing a full reveal (so does he have something to reveal?) and no crumb, I think it's very unlikely he was killed because of this.

Best guess is the SK was scumhunting, my 3 town VCA has Dodgy and Mastin as likely scum based on wagon participation for instance.

Dodgy did not like Mastin if Dave flipped town, Tean, Vettrock and Aneninen, as an alternative motive.

[copper223]

VOTE: Mastin
The people that should be questioned today are those that led town yesterday.

[copper223]

@Killa

Can you explain? Heartless is a slot I’m having trouble getting a strong read on.

It would not be a stretch, but it's at least inaccurate and I've expressed my opinion of why hardcore lurking is less likely to be scum than people make it out to be in multiple games, it goes against scum's wincon and I've yet to see a hardcore lurker flip scum (so I might be biased by my sample size), an opinion I have expressed in multiple games where my alignment is verifiable.

@Wicked

Can you explain? Heartless is a slot I’m having trouble getting a strong read on.

one of the two heads of the hydra was giving town reads that have proven to be almost 100% accurate and the other has botched both major pushes he made yesterday and started out with what looked like a questionable push on Mastin, which makes it plausible it's a strategy on your part if you are scum that one side of the hydra takes the heat and the other then makes people switch back to townreading you, because that's what happened to my personal read, so even when Anti was pushing on Dave or me for reasons I did not agree with and that seemed forced at times I was still townreading the hydra overall.

It would be a nifty way to play it

That was my logic, coupled with the fact town managed to land on 3 separate town bandwagons yesterday, so either the scumhunting was pretty poor and scum just sat on the sidelines twiddling their thumbs and came in to hammer like Beast did or where just mia at the end like Aneninen, which is at odds with the strong lineup I believe we have in this game, or town was mafia driven yesterday, the second makes for a more dangerous scumteam so that's where we should start and why I do not like Killa going on Beast and you following up as a first post, it ignores the conclusions you can try and draw after we lynched Dave and Eyes and Dodgy flipped, that yesterday was really mafia sided, and is a sign of players not updating their reads to try and find scum but just striving to be consistent because they want to look good.

I’ve been strong town reading killa, but this seems like a really good point. Couldn’t find the evidence, myself, though. Post #?

So in effect, I have to vote the guy out who claimed tracker (who I previously put at L-1 and is the very thing you are voting me for) to prove to you that I am town?

@Mastin
That reads town, I'll admit.

[copper223]

They are defending someone who isn't even posting, I've linked examples. What would motivate them to protect someone who is not even posting?
I don't think it is too much of a stretch to say they are protecting a scum buddy.

Sorry this was the quote I wanted to make in my reply to Killa

[copper223]

In that game they replaced out and Llama was not a hardcore lurker so no.

[copper223]

@Vettrock
Gaiden always lurks, if he would start posting he would be instalynched, he lurked there most likely because his meta only lets him play like that, it was a valid strategy for him.

@Killa
Your point on Beast is good, maybe he is abusing his meta here, idk.

[copper223]

@BBT
I admit I may be wrong as this would be no great surprise this game.

Starting with the main lynch drivers from yesterday seemed fairly obvious to me, but like everyone else I have my own set of biases and both Heartless TTH side and Mastin read town to me, the latter less so.

Aneninen gave a 90% confidence townread on the designated mislynch from yesterday, if he boldly WKed Dave good for him but that gives him quite a few town points in my book.

[copper223]

@Vettrock
I only played with Gaiden town and I was scum, he seemed like an easy push so I started to position myself for the mislynch but everyone else was,townreading him, so I asked them: what's up, and they explained he always plays like this and that's why I know his meta, I did not read your game but in this special case I believe it's possible, because contrary to how a normal player would be playing against his wincon for him it would make sense, I can see beast abusing his meta as well if he lurks a lot as town, but those are the exceptions.

[copper223]

davesaz

- Mastin2, Wickedestjr,

Dodgy

, Tean Samargo,

eyestott

davesaz

- Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo,

eyestott

,

Copper

davesaz

- Tean Samargo, Mastin2, Heartless, beastcharizard, Wickedestjr, Vettrock,

Copper

eyestott

-

Dodgy

, BBT,

Copper

,

davesaz

, Mastin2

eyestott

-

Dodgy

, BBT,

davesaz

, Mastin2, Killapenwen

Maybe this is just town self imploding and it's Tean/Beast and either Vettrock or Aneninen doing nothing.

[copper223]

@Mastin
Did you consider Vettrock's read on Eyestott yesterday? Why does scum Vettrock say he is sure the tracker is town?

@Vettrock
Why were you certain of your Eyestott read yesterday?

[copper223]

@Mastin
It would be really bad to give as the only town in your list the guy who claimed, as scum, that is a red arrow pointing at you that you knew his claim was legit thanks to prior information on the slot, it doesn't even buy you towncred, I think you are being disingenuous here so the vote can stay.

[copper223]

Open 573

[copper223]

@Tean
There was no viable counterwagon, there were 16 hours on the clock so I did not know if I would be able to check again and Dave was at the very least a good information flip, so better than a NL.

At least I have had reads, you parked your vote on the mislynch and went mia, but I am happy more likely scum than not is pressuring me on Mastin.