Open 588 Pick Your Poison -- Game Over

[SIR CYANIDE]

VOTE: croboss

[SIR CYANIDE]

Btw someone refresh my memory it's been a while since I played a game here, seeing as we are 13 players we need 7 people to vote for 1 person to reach a lynch right?

[SIR CYANIDE]

@mod

Btw someone refresh my memory it's been a while since I played a game here, seeing as we are 13 players we need 7 people to vote for 1 person to reach a lynch right?

Okay someone who is not Drezi, Victor, or croboss give me a good town reason to build a half lynch wagon on the first page.

I can see how scum can benefit from such actions

but hard to find a reason for me join in.

How can scum possibly benefit from it? Serious question.

[SIR CYANIDE]

@SIR CYANIDE:

How you managed to read posts 22 and 24, but managed to miss post 23 (which seems to be in between the other two) is beyond me.

I'm retarded.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Okay someone who is not Drezi, Victor, or croboss give me a good town reason to build a half lynch wagon on the first page.

I can see how scum can benefit from such actions

but hard to find a reason for me join in.

How can scum possibly benefit from it? Serious question.

Scum benefit if the wagon is on a townie. Because wagoning/potentially lynching a townie is obviously good for scum.

I really don't think anyone is going to wagon someone in rvs to the extent where it could lead to a hammer outside of policy lynches (do these even happen anymore?) and newbie games. We don't really have any information, wagoning on someone may give us more information so I think it's pro-town.

Okay someone who is not Drezi, Victor, or croboss give me a good town reason to build a half lynch wagon on the first page.

I can see how scum can benefit from such actions

but hard to find a reason for me join in.

How can scum possibly benefit from it? Serious question.

Scum benefit if the wagon is on a townie. Because wagoning/potentially lynching a townie is obviously good for scum.

I feel that is oversimplified. Scum will almost always vote townies, but usually a quickbuilt wagon lacks a good case with valid reasons attached to the votes, thus not only can scums lynch town but vote analysis post flip would give little clues as to which of them were opportunistic scums. I see RVS/OMGUS as the same. Perfect coverup for a scum mislynch action.
And 3 is an interesting number =)

I don't know, I've seen scum vote scum plenty of times in rvs.

[SIR CYANIDE]

When have you ever seen a quicklynch outside of newbie games? They don't happen. People say they do, but they don't. Give me

two

quicklynches that happened outside of newbie games and marathon games in the past 3 years. What you're saying with the 'not worth it' line is that on a risk/reward equivalent base you think the risk is higher than the reward on average but seeing as the odds for a quicklynch happening are so astronomical I have to disagree.

Additionally, if someone hammers you can make a very strong point for them being scum if the person who's hammered flips town. Trading 1 town for an almost-certain-scum is still worth it in my book.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I'm more interested in the set-up actually. Yeah yeah I know, role-fishing is bad and anti-town, which is why I'm not asking for speculation and what everyone thinks the set-up may be but rather if someone has objective statistical data as to what set-ups are typically chosen as it isn't hard to imagine that scum would want to shy away from certain combinations.

If you go to the wiki page there's a list of completed games, I clicked them and noticed that every single one of them has an innocent child.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I'd pick Innocent Child, Tracker, and then 20% Cop 80% Vigilante.

IC can be just NK'd, or possibly even lynched before triggering mod confirm. 1 confirmed town is nowhere near scary as a Roleblocker+Doc (that is, JK).
Tracker has 11~12.5% chance of landing scum action N1. Now throw in a Vig, Vig can kill town too so up to 3 towns can die in one day. And walla, D2 LyLo. Tracker can also land on a Vig, and seeing as the target died, mistake Vig for scum. (I have zero experience with Vig, does the mod say who's scum NK'd and who's Vig NK'd in daybreak posts?) And if Tracker catches scum, he'd have to kind of claim or give enough tell to drive town to a guaranteed scum lynch, then scum can just shoot the Tracker so it's kinda like 1 (successful) shot Tracker I guess.
And otherwise Cop because it's only 1 shot.

This is probably the type of speculation you want to avoid because this gives scum more information than town (they know the set-up so if the set-up is IC/tracker/somethingsomething you may seem a little bit too informed).

[SIR CYANIDE]

But towns have no way of knowing if anyone guessed 3 choices right, and even if I guessed right there's no way of knowing who is what, so I don't know why I should be afraid of being seen "a little bit too informed." Am I going to get shot for it?

Worse, you may not get shot for it because you're more likely to be vanilla town if you mispredicted the set-up. You stated 'innocent child, tracker, 20/80 something/something', guess what if there is no tracker?

I went through more open games (about 7 I think?) in addition to the ones I already went through and literally all of them have IC so I think that's a safe assumption to make.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Okay someone who is not Drezi, Victor, or croboss give me a good town reason to build a half lynch wagon on the first page.
I can see how scum can benefit from such actions but hard to find a reason for me join in.

What do you all think of this post? It feels like dropping by only to say "hi, im not scum".

usually a quickbuilt wagon lacks a good case with valid reasons attached to the votes, thus not only can scums lynch town but vote analysis post flip would give little clues as to which of them were opportunistic scums

+ taking the chance to contribute to a non-existant case.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: deathfisaro

You're jumping on the easy read.

Easy reads are often wrong reads.

That's because reads in general are often wrong reads.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I don't get this. Why do you think any of that makes House scum?

To me it feels like House is trying to talk Drezi out of voting for deathfisario. While I don't necessarily buy Drezi's case in 51, I also don't feel like there's any reason to say "nope, you're wrong, and you should change your vote" which is what it feels like House is saying.

Yeah, because Depi is so likely to be lynched this early in D1 that I'm scared my scum buddy is about to be lynched.

That

totally

makes sense.

Who is Depi? Do you mean Drezi?

[SIR CYANIDE]

Ok, lets see what we know so far. Sadly I can't post in blue so we're going with a European traffic light scheme (

green

is town read,

orange

is neutral/undecided,

red

is scum).

RachMarie

-----------------
Hasn't posted anything useful.

NJAC

-----------------
Hasn't posted anything useful.

Count Dooku

-----------------
Spots a non-existing contradiction in #62. In this case, House thinks that there was no good reason to suspect Deathfisario as being scummy, telling Drezi (who did seem to think Deathfisario exhibited scummy behavior) that 'he is jumping on the easy reads, which are usually wrong reads'. Riabi points out that he doesn't like that reasoning from House and votes for House, saying that 'House should know better' because of 'the large number of games he has played', implying that he (Riabi) thinks that House is using an anti-town tactic knowingly. Additionally, Count Dooku says that Riabi disagrees with Drezi whereas in reality Riaba specifically stated that Drezi was 'null'. It's all a bit confusing but I don't really have an opinion about it.

House

-----------------
Has an abrasive playstyle (which doesn't bother me at all, quite the contrary actually, I much prefer having a few players like him in the game rather than having it all be ultra-mannered good guys). Makes a lot of null-statements regarding game theory, no read.

acryon

-----------------
No useful posts.

Riabi

-----------------
Explains his reasoning for voting for House in #60. His read is that House is trying to manipulate another player's vote based on no reliable information and that House is supposed to know better, meaning House would not attempt this if he were to be a townie. I don't agree with the read, I think House just gets off by telling people what they should be doing and that there's no game-related strategy behind all of it. Riabi seems town to me though. The reason I have for this is that he seems a little bit frustrated with the lack of information he has (a great example is #56). Leaning town.

VictorDeAngelo

-----------------
Makes a weak read on Deathfisario in #58. Also asks a lot of questions about what other people think which is typically scummy. One question is pretty legitimate, directed at Riabi in #58, asking him to elaborate on why he thought House was scummy. The other one is, IMO, a scum tell and happens in #61, where he randomly asks people for reads under the guise of the whole House-vs.-Drezi-voting-on-Deathfisario-thingy which is the thing I take issue with.

Lalendra

-----------------
Hasn't really posted something, makes a statement about game theory in #41 which is something that's really easy to pick up on and point out but she's also new to the site so I can't really see it as scum trying to point out the obvious in an effort to appear pro-town. Even if she wasn't new, that's a really weak read in general (as stated previously in the VictorDeAngelo read above). No read, just needs to post more.

croboss

-----------------
Hasn't said anything.

pisskop

-----------------
Seems frustrated with the lack of information available to him in #57, which is a pretty solid town read this early on (similar to Riabi). Not much else has been said.

deathfisaro

-----------------
In #24 he points out the obvious, this is something that mafia people will sometimes do to appear pro-town as discussed somewhere above. I think it's a weak read though, so I'm neutral.

Drezi

-----------------
Seems to be pretty well-versed and pro-town (so far). Jumps on the weak Deathfisario read which is whatever really, as stated before I think that's a weak read but I can see how other people - especially with the limited amount of information available - feel like it justifies a vote.

[SIR CYANIDE]

UNVOTE: croboss

VOTE: VictorDeAngelo

[SIR CYANIDE]

That would be a great argument if not pretty much every single completed open game contained an IC (I'm not lying, go check for yourself). Trying to convince everyone that there is an IC based on objective statistical data is hardly anti-town; if anything it is pro-town because scum already knows the set-up so I'm leveling the playing field a bit.

Town realizing there is almost certainly an IC is better than town not realizing that.

Additionally,

so that when the IC is discovered, and it seems like he knew too much,

this doesn't really make any sense because I could have just kept my mouth shut which would prevent this entire scenario from happening in the first place, so I'm really wondering what you think my strategy is here if I were to be scum.

[SIR CYANIDE]

The amount of thought you're putting into this makes me uneasy, and this post reads like a setup.

I should probably respond to this as well. I was thinking about what set-up scum would go for and looked at a bunch of previous PYP games and this is how I reached the conclusion that an IC will certainly be present. I'm also fairly certain that a vigilante will be present. Why? The set-up is 7 townies 3 goons. Minus the vigilante himself, that makes 6 wrong targets and 3 correct targets. The question here is: is the amount of information that a vigilante can gather in day 1 enough to overcome the greater odds of shooting a wrong target? I don't think so and apparently a lot of other people in previous PYP games felt the same way (assuming they picked the composition with winning being a priority rather than enjoyment). There's 2:1 odds of a vigilante shooting a wrong target if there is no jailkeeper and if the game is absolutely random. Even if you say the game isn't random and the vigilante is able to exclude some players as town, I doubt he can overcome 2:1 odds. You can say that mafia targets are more valuable so in the expected value calculation of risk/reward you'd come out equal but this is nullified because the odds will be stacked against the vigilante even more the next day.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Yeh I'm retarded, I was thinking 'there's 10 town and 3 of them are scum so 7:3' but that obviously doesn't make any sense. Either way that just makes my point even more relevant.

People on this site are really antsy to call something breadcrumbing/tells, I don't really believe in that. Seeing as the likelihood of there being an IC is so high, I suggest we devote some of our energy to discussing what the optimal play for the IC should be. I've already looked through the forums and wiki and there are no real articles and/or discussions about it. All in favor yay/nay?

[SIR CYANIDE]

step 1: form reads and ask what people think
step 2: say that a list of reads and thoughts is redundant
step 3: immediately in the sentence after, voice your discontent about people judging you for forming reads and asking questions
step 4: vote for the person forming reads

A town scum list is redundant and this seems to just be an excuse to justify a scumread on me. Because forming reads and asking questions is apparently scummy.

@Riabi

- What's your current read on Defisaro?
What's your current read on Drezi?

[SIR CYANIDE]

Actually, this deserves highlighting:

A town scum list is redundant and this seems to just be an excuse to justify a scumread on me. Because forming reads and asking questions is apparently scummy.

<-- this last sentence is obviously sarcasm

What this quote actually says:

Reads are redundant. I think you're scum for forming a read on me. Forming reads and asking questions is not scummy, but is something you apparently consider to be scummy.

[SIR CYANIDE]

People on this site are really antsy to call something breadcrumbing/tells, I don't really believe in that. Seeing as the likelihood of there being an IC is so high, I suggest we devote some of our energy to discussing what the optimal play for the IC should be. I've already looked through the forums and wiki and there are no real articles and/or discussions about it. All in favor yay/nay?

Nay. Your job as a townie isn't to try to predict the actions of the PRs nor is it your job to hunt them out.

I wasn't hunting for PRs, in fact I specifically stated I wasn't. Rather, I was trying to predict the set-up. The reason you don't role fish or speculate about set-ups like this in non-open games is because there's really absolutely no way of knowing what roles were introduced, so appearing to be certain of something in those scenarios is much more of a hint towards that person being a PR (because he/she can't know, so if he/she appears to know, he/she is probably one of the PRs and is breadcrumbing/hinting). Here, in an open game, it is much, much different. First of all, we know exactly what roles are a possibility and we also know that the mafia knows the set-up. Speculating about what the set-up may be is probably one of the better things we can do right now. I'm pretty sure not everyone considered the set-up to have an IC before we started talking about it. Well, now we do heavily suspect the set-up to have an IC, right? Does anyone actually disagree with this? If there is anyone who thinks it's unlikely for this game to have an IC, please speak up and give your reasoning. If everyone agrees, what's the harm in bringing it out so that the town people who have maybe not thought about it get some additional information?

I'm really confused why the IC is the subject of such prolonged discussion. Does it change your game strategy much?

There's no direct impact but I think we should devote some posts to discuss what optimal IC strategy is. The IC may not directly know what his/her optimal play is, so I feel we should discuss the protocol for the IC's claim. Why are people against this?

Isn't it early to do this? I appreciate the townread, really, but this is a lot of effort for a first read. I look forward to your periodic reads.

It is kind of early yea, but does posting an early list really make me scummy? Lol.

[SIR CYANIDE]

The strategy for IC is pants-shittingly obvious.

Not really. When you're IC, you're at L-1 and someone has the intent to hammer and asks you to claim, what do you do? There are multiple things you can do. Without the discussion I'm trying to incite, this is how it will likely go down:

Hammerer: claim
IC: I'm IC
Hammerer: pm to mods so we know you are IC
Wagonners: yeah go pm the mod
IC: alright
Mod: IC is IC
Hammerer: well I'll be damned
Wagonners: unvote: IC, vote: other person
~~
IT IS NOW NIGHT 1

IC has been found dead
~~



-------------------------


Now it doesn't have to be like this. It can also be like this:

Hammerer: claim
IC: I'm IC
Hammerer: pm to mods so we know you are IC
Wagonners: yeah go pm the mods
IC: no, I'll do it first thing next day
Hammerer: no, you have to pm the mod or you're getting a hammer
IC: I'll do it the first thing next day, we're not in LyLo, if I don't do it the next day you can still lynch me, blahblahblah
Hammerer&Wagonners: *more discussion ensues*
Wagonners: unvote: IC
~~
IT IS NOW NIGHT 1

IC, who was not actually IC but vanilla town, has been found dead
~~

Gratz, we got +value. The issue here is if the

real

IC would have counterclaimed. Then the 'IC' in this example could have been scum, gone down and gotten a PR with him. It may seem silly to counterclaim, but if the fake IC pulls something like I just described in example 2, people may play incorrectly and counterclaim him just to get the lynch in. I've seen lots of stupid shit in my mafia career. This is one of those games where we actually have a fair amount of information (compared to other mafia games) and I think we should use that information to the best of our ability, this includes some probability work and speculation about mafia tendencies and what we should do if situation [x] or [y] arises.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Additionally, if the fake IC claimed to be IC and then got shot the following night that tells us a lot, namely that there pretty much is an IC (hence the mafia targeting the IC).

[SIR CYANIDE]

Hammerer: claim
IC: I'm IC
Hammerer: pm to mods so we know you are IC
Wagonners: yeah go pm the mods
IC: no, I'll do it first thing next day
Hammerer: no, you have to pm the mod or you're getting a hammer
IC: I'll do it the first thing next day, we're not in LyLo, if I don't do it the next day you can still lynch me, blahblahblah
Hammerer&Wagonners: *more discussion ensues*
Wagonners: unvote: IC

Wagonners: vote Player2 (L-1)
Player2: actually I'm IC
...
Player3: no, actually I'm IC

Back to square one.

OR

NL
random townie (not ic claim) found dead.
Lynch IC claim, when he can't confirm.
Repeat.

And imagine this situation when we don't even have an IC. Scum knows if that's the case.

Where's the +value?

In example one, the IC makes an incorrect play by immediately counterclaiming. That is what I'm trying to avoid by talking about how IC should play. In fact, in my own message I give the exact same example and why we need this discussion so anyone trying to make some fancy plays doesn't get fucked over by the IC claiming in a bad spot.

In your last example you were going to lynch the IC claim anyway. Look at it like this:

CASE 1

-----
Player 2 is Vanilla Town
Player 2 claims IC after being forced to claim by a potential hammer
We lynch player 3, which was the 2nd most suspect player.
Next day player 2 is alive and can't claim, so we lynch player 2.

vs.

CASE 2

-----
Player 2 is Vanilla Town
Player 2 claims Vanilla Town after being forced to claim by a potential hammer
Player 2 gets lynched (don't pretend you suddenly won't lynch someone when they claim VT)
Player 3 will probably get lynched next day



Now I do not deny that case 2 is slightly better for town than case 1, but I'm just playing the odds here. I think if you'd simulate the base situation over like 1000 games that town would come out ahead from such a play. It's kind of like poker: yeah, you can be favored to get ahead and still lose, that doesn't mean the play itself is bad just because someone can think of a way it can play out that's counterproductive for town's win condition.

[SIR CYANIDE]

On the other, you could have simply posted it in the first place without fishing. I'd have felt better about your slot if you had.

I was never fishing, I simply stated that it was likely there was an IC due to objective statisical data, then I backed that up with my subjective opinion of 'if I were mafia I'd also go for IC'.

The odds are good that there is one, however it's just as likely that if IC is as common as you say, that scum might have deliberately NOT picked IC as one of the PRs just to throw us off.

True (and wifom'ish but nearly everything is wifom'ish so whatever), but it is unlikely that the mafia predicted that there would be such an elaborate amount of discussion about the set-up and may have concluded that the value they gain from having an inferior PR (or at least deemed inferior by popular opinion) outweighs the value they lose from being predictable.

[SIR CYANIDE]

In example one, the IC makes an incorrect play by immediately counterclaiming.

My examples are both the continuations of your example2, which is in the quote. Read it as such, noone is counterclaiming immediately.

Read the post again:

Gratz, we got +value.

The issue here is if the real IC would have counterclaimed.

Then the 'IC' in this example could have been scum, gone down and gotten a PR with him. It may seem silly to counterclaim, but if the fake IC pulls something like I just described in example 2, people may play incorrectly and counterclaim him just to get the lynch in. I've seen lots of stupid shit in my mafia career.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Fact of the matter is, there's never any reason to counterclaim an IC. The mod not confirming an IC is proof of fakeclaim.

Your theory is invalid.

There we go. Now imagine if we had not discussed this and Mafia - upon being at L-1 and asked to claim - would have pulled something like this, fishing for the real IC and actually

getting

the real IC out of it. He would go down as he would have anyways but he takes the IC with him. Specifically because of discussing IC theory, we can now avoid the IC from doing this in this game which gives us added value. Do you see how this speculation and set-up talk is pro-town?

[SIR CYANIDE]

Guys please.

We try to lynch someone. He claims IC, tells us to spare him, he'll confirm himself the next day.
NOONE COUNTERCLAIMS.
We simply try and lynch the next person.
He claims IC too, telling us to spare him he's the real one, he'll confirm the next day.
NOONE COUNTERCLAIMS.
We try to lynch someone again....
And everyone is a claimed IC, who'll confirm next day, so we're back where we started, only way out of the lynch is to use IC ability for real and get mod confirmed.

OR we have my situation two.

We let the IC claim live and confirm next day and we go NL.
Scum DOES NOT kill the IC claim, kills random townie.
Next day we still don't know shit about the IC claim since he wasn't NK-d, we're in the same place with +1 town dead, IC has to confirm, or get's lynched, just like the day before.

I did not necessarily recommend people claiming IC, I just recommended people

not counterclaiming

IC.

[SIR CYANIDE]

As for Sir Cyanide, you said you wanted to talk about how "IC should play", then talked about how "VT should fake IC claim"

Small note: I never said VT should fake claim IC, just that IC should not counterclaim fake IC.

trying to mimic me in not knowing how many town are in this game when he previously stated that this is a 13 player game himself

Not trying to mimic anyone, just an honest mistake. My thought process was 'there's 10 town players and 3 of them have to be scum so we're ending up with 7:3' which is really just momentary retardation because the scum players don't take away from the town players.

his laughable scenarios in his theorycrafting,

They really aren't laughable; we reached the conclusion that IC should never counterclaim fake IC.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Who reached the conclusion and why? Town has no reason to fake claim IC, only scum will do that. All I see is you setting up for a fake IC claim yourself.
VOTE: SIR CYANIDE

Did you even read what I wrote? I never said town should fake claim IC, I said IC should not counterclaim fake IC. That is the conclusion we all reached (and House was the first one to actually explicitly post it in #125):

Fact of the matter is, there's never any reason to counterclaim an IC. The mod not confirming an IC is proof of fakeclaim.

I am not setting up myself for a fake IC claim because I never said it was a good idea to fake IC claim.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I would like to state as well that your opportunistic wagoning is really scummy, more-so than Victor's. You apparently have no problem putting me at L-1 (or so you thought) either this early on in the day with quite a bit of people not even having contributed to the game. Therefor,

Unvote: VictorDeAngelo

VOTE: deathfisaro

[SIR CYANIDE]

I would like to state as well that your opportunistic wagoning is really scummy, more-so than Victor's

To clarify this, this should be read as follows:

I would like to state as well that your opportunistic wagoning is really scummy, scummier than what Victor did to make me suspect him

because obviously I didn't vote for Victor for wagoning and the sentence is confusing.

Also, there's 4 votes on me atm.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I don't know how many times I have to repeat this, but lets hope this will be the last time.

You're breadcrumbing yourself fakeclaiming IC,

No I'm not. House (and others) said that the IC was a 'really simple role' and 'required no discussion', so I set up a few examples. Although it surely is not the most sophisticated role in existence, there are plenty of things you can mess up and one of them is counter-claiming a fake-IC. A lot of people seem to tunnel on the example I gave where a Vanilla Townie fake-claims IC and then draws the night kill from scum and a lot of people seem to think that is something I suggested as a viable strategy. I never suggested doing this, it was just an example to show how the role is more complex than people think and how people can make wrong decisions regarding the IC role.

Never did I once encourage this hypothetical situation from actually being played out by anyone.

And from what I read, both Drezi and House are actually disagreeing with your theorycraft.

No they're not, because this:

What they are saying is, there is no need for IC to counterclaim, because mod does the confirmation for the IC and if a fakeclaimer can't get that post out of a mod, that's enough evidence of a fakeclaim.

is exactly my point of view as well, so we actually align perfectly.

On the other hand you misrep multiple people to throw the idea that real IC shouldn't counterclaim...

But that's where we all agree on, right? That the real IC shouldn't counterclaim?

... to setup your fakeclaiming IC.

This doesn't even make sense. Why would I fakeclaim IC? Why do people think I want to fakeclaim IC, or am setting myself up for fakeclaiming IC?

[SIR CYANIDE]

So the tl;dr of your suspicion for me is that I'm setting myself up for fakeclaiming IC, but it really isn't based on anything. It seems like you created that idea yourself.

[SIR CYANIDE]

The 'tryhard' you're noticing is probably just because I'm sometimes a bit overzealous in trying to get my point across, which means I state things and then may restate things in a similar fashion.

Yeah, I've been playing Mafia for quite a while now (even way before my join date) but I've always played it on other sites, mostly private clan forums in the off-topic parts. I stopped playing at this site because the rules this site uses for their mafia games makes for fairly boring games and the leeway lurkers get is also really toxic for the game itself. The following people have contributed absolutely nothing for the past 3 days (and count dooku gets an honorable mention although he did post some relevant things):

acryon
NJAC
Rachmarie

This would never fly on most sites but sadly we can't lynch them either because townies are just as prone to inactivity as scum so the only thing we can do is beg them for their input. Finally, because of the way deadlines and votes are set-up on this forum as well as the 0 information given at game start, scum doesn't actually need to have an agenda or strategy coming into the game. For scum, the winning tactic is usually 'be the best you can be by being the least you can be'.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Okay if people are so experienced and good at this game, tell me why IC getting confirmed D1 and eating NK is bad.

I'm glad you put forth some IC theorycrafting yourself (despite apparently wanting to shy away from it but whatever), because you just proposed something rather controversial (but not entirely stupid, I see where you're coming from).

First of all: I'm sure we can both agree that it is not the optimal NK, right? The optimal NK is vanilla town. Right. The issue I have with this is that scum will NK VT 7 out of 10 (assuming randomness), and will only hit a more valuable target once out of 5.

[SIR CYANIDE]

SC, do you think Death is scummy?

Yes I do.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Im currently on a phone, but I think House was itching to get a town read on you for you, and thus put down the newbie for newbtown pushing.

I don't know what this is supposed to mean. Could you rephrase and elaborate?

[SIR CYANIDE]

What I demonstrated in my examples, is that there's no value to be gain from letting an IC claim pass for a day without proof like Cyanide has shown in his examples,

the one and only answer to the IC claim is "prove it right now, or get rekt"

so the real IC will have no reed to counterclaim in order to get the lynch through anyway.

Yes you did, but the red part may not have been common knowledge and you don't want the IC to counterclaim a fakeclaim before anyone can explain him that's a bad idea (not everyone is online 24/7 and reads every single post immediately). It's great that you proved it, sadly you didn't convince anyone because nobody had a contrary opinion.

You're not as smart as you think you are, so do us all a favor and stop acting like a condescending jerk (or I WILL vote you ), this game is meant to be recreational and fun.

First of all, policy lynches are incredibly anti-town as scum is not more likely to be condescending, rude, annoying or whatever character trait you deem to be toxic compared to town. It is much better to go for the players who are more likely to be scum in the game; not in real life. The charismatic players typically have an (unfair?) edge over the more abrasive players already, there's really no need to widen that gap.

Secondly, I have never seen someone say something like this without it being a projection.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I have busy days coming up and on top of that it's Family Day on Monday in BC, Canada, and I'm going to Whistler over long weekend so I'm extremely unlikely available from tomorrow (Friday) ~3pm PST till Tuesday 10am PST. I set V/LA for the duration.
With 18+ days left I feel like I'll come back and catch up no problem, but at mod's discretion feel free to replace me out if deemed necessary.

Obviously you can do whatever you want, it's not like I can stop you anyway and the mod determines what is acceptable and what isn't, not me, but it's really obnoxious that you're leaving for 4 days now there's some heat/votes on you. Other people are going to catch up on what's been happening between you, me and house and will probably want to ask you questions.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Seems like croboss is particularly disinterested in finding scum, perhaps because he already knows the set-up. Doesn't properly read the thread either and has been very absent. Bandwagons me and then doesn't back up his reasoning either.

unvote

VOTE: croboss

[SIR CYANIDE]

sadly you didn't convince anyone because nobody had a contrary opinion.

The hell, it was none other than you that promted my reply, by bringing up a case where we don't lynch the claim right away, and let him live and conf next day for value..

or I WILL vote you.

The I will vote you part is a sarcastic remark to this.

And my "projection" is a remark to this shit:

Do you always assume your adversary is an idiot? Because if so, you're simply projecting.

... resisting... urge... to vote... stupid.

Stop posting stupidity

Now you're posting stupidity too?

Who's calling everyone else stupid?...

Nevermind, I thought your post was directed at me and not at House. After rereading it I wonder how I could have mistaken it for being directed at me. Disregard everything I said in #175.

[SIR CYANIDE]

First, let's drop all the setup specualtion talk. Thank you.

Agreed, it's useless at this point. It can only really aid scum in finding who is a PR by the way people approach the topic.

No it doesn't. Ask yourself, do you have any idea who the PRs/IC are? You don't, because WIFOM fucks up every reason you may have for it + lurkers who haven't given any input about anything are null reads and they may be power roles as well. I remember analyzing newbie games about scum and doc finding PRs in N1 and the amount of times they succeeded was exactly the amount of times you'd expect them to if their votes were cast completely random. I'm talking exactly the amount, down to the decimal point. Sample size was 120 games iirc, which is substantial. If you really think any of this discussion has even remotely outed PRs you need a reality check

I am torn on Sir Cyanide. At first, I thought it made some sense from a town-perspective to want to discuss the set-up a bit, but the amount he is harping on it is a little unsettling. Really feels like rolefishing.

There's a name for this type of reasoning but I forgot the 'official' terminology. Fencesitting? I don't remember. Either way, it's when you state absolutely nothing by posting random things that contradict each other. 'I thought it made sense' but it is 'unsettling', make up your mind.

Seems like croboss is particularly disinterested in finding scum, perhaps because he already knows the set-up. Doesn't properly read the thread either and has been very absent. Bandwagons me and then doesn't back up his reasoning either.

unvote

VOTE: croboss

Could you

possibly

talk about the setup any more? And calling croboss out based on that post seems pretty terrible. And below the quality of play that seemed to exist in your never-ending role discussions.

You seem to have misunderstood me. The set-up here refers to who is mafia and who isn't, not about who is PR and who isn't. Croboss seems really disinterested in this game, he did not even read the topic properly, gives no explanation and posts random shit about House in an effort to appear like he is doing something. My 'he seems disinterested perhaps because he knows the set-up' here actually means 'he seems disinterested because he already knows who is mafia and who is town so the thrill of finding mafia is gone for him which is a reason for his disinterest'

For the love of all that is good, can we stop talking about the setup? If scum hasn't figured out who the PRs are already, then they will if people don't shut up.

They won't figure out anything.

VOTE: SIR CYANIDE

[SIR CYANIDE]

Yes, which is ridiculous. I agree that it is silly that I came into the game for real on page 8 and had little to comment on other than a pile of setup discussion. Only scum gains from that. There should be more pushing for reactions, which town wins from.

While I have you here, do you honestly think 177 comes from scum?

I know this question is probably not directed at me, but I have rarely seen more obvscum. Lets take a look:

(you guys post wayyy too much i can hardly catch up)

Disinterested. Doesn't feel like reading all of the text and is justifying it here. You can easily catch up, it's just a matter of reading the words. It's not a difficult concept.

Who actually claimed IC?

Nobody claimed IC, which he doesn't know because he only skimmed through the topic and saw a lot of IC this IC that.

I can't find it where someone actually claimed?

Because he didn't even search, reading any post what-so-ever would tell him that. Because I'm a lazy piece of shit as well in general I know this tactic and it's one I often employ myself.

House: I feel like he knows what he's doing and is smart about it, but he's also seems authoritative and gets angered fairly easily.

A random comment, he was going to 'post his thoughts' and after all those pages this is the only thing he comes up with.

Thats the only person that really stood out to me hopefully I can dig deeper. (haha I guess I'm pretty bad at mafia)

He is not digging deeper, he is once again trying to justify his lack of investment by promising us he will 'dig deeper' (which he probably won't). He finishes it with another justification ('haha im bad at mafia'). Basically this entire post is him apologizing/trying to get away with the fact that he can't be fucked to actually read through the topic and play the god damn game.

Now, there is an

EXTREME

correlation between his behavior and being scum.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Ah yeah lets not forget that he just randomly votes for me without any back-up while there is a wagon on me. Legit?

[SIR CYANIDE]

So you analyzed specifically newbie games where the setup was heavily discussed at the start of the game? What a coincidence that you happened to conduct such an extremely narrow analysis.

There were plenty of games where people revealed to have breadcrumbed or slipped up and in the quicktopics plenty of debate was had about things that could potentially be tells. None were relevant.

How often does this reasoning actually lead you to scum?

Quite often.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I mean I think my vote showed that I'm not sitting the fence, right?

Fencesitting is probably the wrong terminology. You're reasoning for voting me is all over the place, you're basically saying 'you're doing [x] which I think is good but idk I think it's bad'. It's a typical scum tactic to justify a vote on someone.

[SIR CYANIDE]

but that you were taking it to a point beyond that, where I don't see a townie taking it.

Where, specifically?

[SIR CYANIDE]

It was just to convince house that there was more to IC than he thought. The actual examples are meaningless.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I find that people in mafia games immediately thinks that someone is scum just because they do something that you don't like, even if you can not properly justify it. For example Sir Cyanide dislikes my lack of content and the fact i've voted for him, he greatly dislikes these 2 things so he thinks that I must be scum. From what i've read he can't really justify it and is just using an OMGUS argument with same random non validated statistics of that when someone doesnt post content they have an extreme correlation to scum.

I also find it funny about when someone plays unorthodox or "bad play" most people immediately think they must be scum. Being scum shouldn't to my belief have no correlation to "bad play"

I must confess that my reason for the vote on Sir Cyanide was to generate discussion, but really, how does failing to understand that nobody claimed IC really make me scum?

UNVOTE: Sir Cyanide

Alright mate, lots of 'this and that isn't necessarily scummy', so in addition to the questions NJAC asked, what

does

make someone scummy according to you?

[SIR CYANIDE]

I literally at the point where I was yesterday, where I have stopped wanted to read this game. If that was the plan, then good job.

I'm bored now, and it's late. Next time I'm on someone remind me to read pages 9-???. Night.

How about you either play the game and stop whining like a little bitch or replace out? Nobody's forcing you to play this game.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I can be as scummy as I want to be, actually.

Is this an admission of scumminess?

This post reads like scum, btw.

If Riabi was town, he'd suspect if I was admitting to being scum. But he knows I'm not scum, so he's asking if I'm admitting to being scummy.

VOTE: Riabi

I hope you know what you're doing the last few posts.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Especially because Riabi didn't join the IC debate.

[SIR CYANIDE]

you should help us put down House. He is infected with teh scumz.

I don't really have a town read on House but there are plenty of other people who I'd like to put down before considering him.

[SIR CYANIDE]

If everyone could give everyone else an update on why their vote is on person [x] and for what reasons, that would be great. I'll start.

My vote is on croboss because of #177. My reasons for this are stated in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p6584808, but I'll quote them here:

Yes, which is ridiculous. I agree that it is silly that I came into the game for real on page 8 and had little to comment on other than a pile of setup discussion. Only scum gains from that. There should be more pushing for reactions, which town wins from.

While I have you here, do you honestly think 177 comes from scum?

I know this question is probably not directed at me, but I have rarely seen more obvscum. Lets take a look:

(you guys post wayyy too much i can hardly catch up)

Disinterested. Doesn't feel like reading all of the text and is justifying it here. You can easily catch up, it's just a matter of reading the words. It's not a difficult concept.

Who actually claimed IC?

Nobody claimed IC, which he doesn't know because he only skimmed through the topic and saw a lot of IC this IC that.

I can't find it where someone actually claimed?

Because he didn't even search, reading any post what-so-ever would tell him that. Because I'm a lazy piece of shit as well in general I know this tactic and it's one I often employ myself.

House: I feel like he knows what he's doing and is smart about it, but he's also seems authoritative and gets angered fairly easily.

A random comment, he was going to 'post his thoughts' and after all those pages this is the only thing he comes up with.

Thats the only person that really stood out to me hopefully I can dig deeper. (haha I guess I'm pretty bad at mafia)

He is not digging deeper, he is once again trying to justify his lack of investment by promising us he will 'dig deeper' (which he probably won't). He finishes it with another justification ('haha im bad at mafia'). Basically this entire post is him apologizing/trying to get away with the fact that he can't be fucked to actually read through the topic and play the god damn game.

Now, there is an

EXTREME

correlation between his behavior and being scum.

[SIR CYANIDE]

and it seem odd that someone who actually *IS* town would feel the need to do that.

I really don't think that's odd. Doesn't everyone feel the need to convince people they are not scum (and thus automatically that they're town)? #235 isn't that odd, it would have been odd if daycop was an option. And yeah, he has been buddying a bit but so what? Disagreeing/agreeing with people isn't scum.

I don't think we should be voting house. People I'd like to see lynched:

1. croboss
2. deathfisario
3. victordeangelo

#1 being most wanted, #3 being 3rd-most-wanted.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Hi. How's everybody doing?

People are VL/A'ing too much for my liking and some people are complaining that they are bored with the game.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I apologize for the massive V/LAing. I shall locate my implements of torture.

As far as boredom, there is literally nothing I can do about that.



Wait....... I could post funny pictures, if you think that would help?

Well I'm not the one getting bored but yeah. Cat-centric please.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Lots of posts but nothing really convinced me. I'm cool for killing off rach as well btw, lurking yourself to D2 seems like a good scum strategy and she's executing it successfully atm.

Croboss needs to die ASAP.

My suspicion of Victor remains unchanged. Same goes for deathfisario but hey if you don't post there's little that can change mhm?

House seems fairly town, especially so in his last few posts.

Drezi was pretty much null but I'm getting more suspicious of him actually. He seems very articulate and his posts seem well thought-out but he's voting for dooku without much of an argument and seemingly very little thought behind it. He's just observing the debate and then casually injecting some fluff/random comments about how the game is going and someone's thoughts and then BAM, croboss did this and that in post X and he is scum vote croboss. That's pretty odd.

How do people feel about killing off Rach?

[SIR CYANIDE]

Lots of posts but nothing really convinced me. I'm cool for killing off rach as well btw, lurking yourself to D2 seems like a good scum strategy and she's executing it successfully atm.

Croboss needs to die ASAP.

My suspicion of Victor remains unchanged. Same goes for deathfisario but hey if you don't post there's little that can change mhm?

House seems fairly town, especially so in his last few posts.

Drezi was pretty much null but I'm getting more suspicious of him actually. He seems very articulate and his posts seem well thought-out but he's voting for dooku without much of an argument and seemingly very little thought behind it. He's just observing the debate and then casually injecting some fluff/random comments about how the game is going and someone's thoughts and then BAM, croboss did this and that in post X and he is scum vote croboss. That's pretty odd.

How do people feel about killing off Rach?

This post is shifting my read of SC. He's all for killing rach... says croboss needs to die asap... then tests the waters for a rach lynch who is simply not posting for reasons that may or may not even be related to the game as opposed to a player that is actively scummy in the game?

Yeah nah... not buying that as a town post.

Or you could shut up and see if someone else behaves in an opportunistic manner when they are presented with an easy reason to get on the rachwag. Maybe you're warning them?

[SIR CYANIDE]

Alright, so about the Rach thing. First of all, I am actually ok with lynching her. The red bolded text was more to lull out people and see who would jump on the easy case, sadly overzealous House didn't get it, I guess he prefers showing everyone how smart he is by noticing things rather than realizing something and keeping it quiet to increase his chance of winning. Or he could just go back to poorly trying to draw the NK towards him. Whatever floats his boat.

Yeah yeah, I know, being inactive is not necessarily alignment-indicative. Wanna know a secret though? Fucking nothing at all is alignment-indicative. What you do is you take all the information you have and this should create an inner narrative; 'would scum do this? would town do this?' and then you should have a vague probability in your head about how likely someone is to be scum and if you're not delusional that probability should be close to 50%. Can anyone tell me here with a straight face that lurking to this extent is

NOT

pro-scum and

NOT

anti-town? Yeah, that's what I thought. Don't get me wrong, I agree that inactivity isn't as alignment-indicative as things with a similar level of pro-scuminess are, but I don't think anyone here can tell me that town and scum have a perfect 50/50 distribution of inactivity. Scum are more likely to exhibit that behavior.

I don't know why people are so eager for the dooku lynch. I've ISO'd his posts and don't notice anything special. Summary?

[SIR CYANIDE]

also

Spoiler:

[SIR CYANIDE]

[SIR CYANIDE]

Sir Cyanide

Can we have your reads list?

ye reading now

[SIR CYANIDE]

Count Dooku

Don't understand the hate for Dooku, I read him as town. He invested quite a bit of effort in checking other games, which is really towny (scum already knows who is town so their cases are usually less elaborate). I don't think he scumslipped when talking about the catching up post but it was pretty weird and out of character nonetheless, so yeah. I don't think he is scum at all.

Deathfisario

Doesn't post and replaced out, so nothing really changed.

House

It's difficult to read someone who doesn't know what he's doing himself. Had a weak town read earlier but that swapped over to a weak scum read. Just posts a lot of weird shit, for example, 248 and 241 together in such quick succession is softclaiming IC to me which seems incredibly anti-town especially because there was no real immediate threat of him getting lynched. [post]503[/b] is also fucked up, everyone with half a brain and a little bit of mafia experience knows that you can't be that certain... now why would he put his own life on the line like that...? Yeah. He also thinks nearly everyone is suspicious, it's not really setting up a healthy town environment by FoSing everyone in the game and swapping votes around like crazy. Once again as stated at the beginning I'm pretty sure he's insane and I am approaching this in a sane manner, so I can't really read him scum. At first I thought he was drawing in the NK by softclaiming IC but his #503 is way too subtle for drawing in the NK.

pisskop

Null leaning scum, kind of similar to House. Asks way too many questions and other people's opinions without putting forth any relevant content himself. That is usually scumplay.

Drezi

Little actual content, lots of semantics and fluff. Primarily defends people and points out holes in their logic and reads but doesn't really put forward cases. Null, but leaning scum slightly.

croboss

Needs to die. Lets see what his replacement has to say.

[SIR CYANIDE]

croboss

Needs to die. Lets see what his replacement has to say.

What makes his posts scum play instead of bad town play?

What makes anyone's posts scum play instead of bad town play? Serious question.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Contrary to a lot of people here I don't think scum needs to have (or will have) an agenda.

Also, I no longer believe he was soft-claiming IC. I did at first, which is why I did not point it out then.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Contrary to a lot of people here I don't think scum needs to have (or will have) an agenda.

I also don't think they necessarily need to. But if we are going to indict someone based on their posting alone, absent apparent scum agenda, then you need to have more than a few posts to back that up.

Also, I no longer believe he was soft-claiming IC. I did at first, which is why I did not point it out then.

What made you change your mind?

I thought there was reasoning behind his posting at first but now it is apparent that he is clearly insane. If this set-up had a village idiot...

[SIR CYANIDE]

Blue is the mod color. You want to get modkilled?

[SIR CYANIDE]

Meh, that wouldn't be fair with the town.
So

@Mod I would like to replace out.

lmfao wtf happened to this site in the past few years

[SIR CYANIDE]

Dooku makes a good point btw which is also why I originally stopped playing on this site. "Be the best you can be by being the least you can be" reigns supreme here and there's a shitfuckton of tolerance for lurkers.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Dooku makes a good point btw which is also why I originally stopped playing on this site. "Be the best you can be by being the least you can be" reigns supreme here and there's a shitfuckton of tolerance for lurkers.

I agree that there may be too much tolerance for lurkers, but what can you really do? Vote and pressure the player and then they just flake while the real scum live on because we focused on lurkers? It's an unfortunate thing to navigate through for sure, but lynching all lurkers sucks and so does ignoring them completely. The best we can do is try to find a nice middle ground, and I don't think lynching croboss is where we want to be.

Problem can't be fixed by the players, the site just needs to become more elitist and blacklist/ban players.

[SIR CYANIDE]

For those who care, dooku replacing out at that timing with a fairly weak (imo) argument for it makes him seem pretty scummy to me. I know I had a town read first which is why it is confusing that he would do such a thing. I don't know if I can convince people to kill off croboss and/or deathfisario. I may be on board on a dooku lynch, I'll have to see what his replacement has to say about it.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Up to page 8...
Bunch of ego measures.

Have nothing to comment on those pages except for that "house is protecting death" is nullified.

dats rite son

u fookin' read dat shit m8

ima vote u

swear on me mam

cheeky little cunt

[SIR CYANIDE]

something something sir cyanide is town

ty

I can agree for now on SC. House does give out townreads and does look for townslips.

gr8 read m8, r8 8/8, w8 and have f8 in my b8

l8er

[SIR CYANIDE]

This is probably a lot less funny than I currently think it is (I've had a bit of alcohol). Either way I'm going to bed now, I'll see if I can give some actual coherent responses tomorrow.

[SIR CYANIDE]

pisskop strikes me as itching to get a claim out of me to confirm what he may have perceived as a soft claim earlier.

Although he's not coming straight out and campaigning for my lynch, he's doubtcasting hard to try to get people to vote me without actually appearing to be actively pushing the wagon.

TL;DR> pisskop is scum. But we already know that.

And why not kill deathfisario's slot then? Look at what he said:

If I were IC, I'd just ROFLclaim right out of gate and draw the nightkill so that other more scary (from scum POV) town PRs can do their night actions safely

Okay if people are so experienced and good at this game, tell me why IC getting confirmed D1 and eating NK is bad. If Tracker/JK/Cop eats NK, the information they could have gotten is lost. And look at 135 for how much more likely scum will be able to shoot PR than PR night action landing. I don't know why you'd risk trading 1~2 conf town + 1 conf scum with 1 conf town. I posted this idea more than once and you keep avoiding it.
You're being overly obsessed with IC when there's no reason to. I'm sorry if there's IC in this game that I find IC the most disposable PR out of all 5.

I'm sorry but I can't take any other lynch seriously when deathfisario's/croboss' slot is still alive. Maybe Victor as a 3rd, but df/cro really just need to die.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Is there any way I can convince anyone on the dooku wagon to jump on the croboss (metalcyanide) wagon? I'm just not really feeling dooku.

[SIR CYANIDE]

I don't think lynching dooku's slot accomplishes much. Lynching Hana though... I doubt there is much she can do to convince me that her slot (deathfisario) isn't scum.

[SIR CYANIDE]

Are we going to kill croboss?

So is there an innocent child in the open? Has anyone claimed yet? Quick recap of who's scum please.

Town: me
Scum: VictorDeAngelo, Sakura Hana, Metalcyanide
Lurkers: NJAC, RachMarie (now nachomamma8)
Insane: House
Wild cards: everyone else

[SIR CYANIDE]

[chanting]

lynch, him, lynch, him, lynch, him, lynch, him

[/chanting]

[SIR CYANIDE]

VOTE: Metalcyanide

will read tonight

what a fucking boss

[SIR CYANIDE]

-_______-

gl everyone