Open 595: Elemental Mafia (Town Wins!)

[Plotinus]

VOTE: conmanmick

because I can't tell if that's an elephant in your avatar or a dinosaur

[Plotinus]

His vote is listed in the vote count.

[Plotinus]

VOTE: choof

[Plotinus]

I'm still mainly in RVS at the moment, but I changed my vote because he said:

Hello, my homies. This player asks which one of you is mafia?

you and I are scum partners, thought we already established in the quicktopic

I realise he's probably joking but I don't have anything else to go on at this stage so saying he has a scumpartner is a good enough reason to vote him as any. Also it would be totally ironic if he was telling the truth.

[Plotinus]

No, I've seen it in a couple games I spectated before that sometimes scum do ironic things like that on day 1 and then 50 pages later everyone points at their RVS joke and laughs in hindsight.

But town do it too, so, sure it was a joke. I won't take it seriously once we get into the early game in earnest and I start being able to tell you guys apart. You can accuse me of voteparking later in the game when I'm not claiming to have null reads on everybody, it's premature for that accusation now when everyone else is voteparking too. I'll definitely be quoting this exchange in 50 pages if I'm right but I don't expect to be. That's what RVS means.

[Plotinus]

Didn't say you were.

I switched because I've seen it in a couple games I spectated before that sometimes scum do ironic things like that on day 1 and then 50 pages later everyone points at their RVS joke and laughs in hindsight.

It was as good a reason for switching as any.

[Plotinus]

Senator, my second vote was less random than my first, but it's still too early for me to have serious reads on anybody. I need to get to know you guys first. I expect others are feeling the same way so I'm talking so people can get to know me and reading so I can get to know them. Consider my vote on choof to be about 3% serious. I meant what I wrote, but I predict it will be many game days before we know if it had any significance at all. I haven't played in or viewed nearly enough games to be confident that I've found scum on page 3.

[Plotinus]

He asked me why I changed my vote. I did have a reason, so I shared it. RVS isn't black and white for me. If RVS is white and having a strong read on someone is black then my reason is a very very pale grey. I like to let people know who strong (or weak) my opinions/reasoning/reads are when I'm sharing them, otherwise people tend to think I feel more strongly about things than I do. It seems that you guys are doing that anyway though so whatever.

[Plotinus]

@lane: Depends how long it's been. If it's been less than a day it might mean just mean the other game is at a more exciting place. If they're in danger of a prod then I do think it's suspicious. But it depends on how much they've contributed to this game you're in and it also depends on whether people are waiting for a response from them. If lots of people have asked them questions and they're off posting elsewhere for hours and hours then that's suspicious. If they've shared their thoughts and are waiting on responses from others and are catching up on their other games while they wait, then not suspicious.

[Plotinus]

I have seen actual scum do it before. I have no idea how common it is because I'm pretty new around here (I have one completed game), and I would like to see numbers for how often people who do it are town vs scum before I was ready to lynch based on it, though. So yes, I think it's a bad play, even as a joke. Even if people don't believe you, it plants the seed in their minds, and I think it can colour their gut read of you.

[Plotinus]

so i was actually curious about this so i went through the completed games here in central park, in order. i'm just looking at the scum here, don't have time right now to do a close survey. just going to check 10. i'm skipping any games that were abandoned or rebooted or similar.

Spoiler: hidden for people who don't care

In 580, one scum claimed "Death Miller Jester Bomb Cult Leader" obviously a joke
in 579 no one did
in 578 one scum asks a town-aligned person when was the earliest they had caught scum
in 577 one scum predicts his scumbuddy will fakeclaim at L-1 in RVS
in 575 one scum rvses his buddy.
in 573 1 scum mentions that a bunch of people are scum
in 572 1 scum mentions that scum's winning chances
in 571 nobody does
in 570 nobody does
in 569 1 scum says someone scumslipped in rvs

i didn't keep count of town doing it but i didn't see much of it in my skimming.

[Plotinus]

you're right. although the first one sorta is (it's also very obviously a joke, but any of those claims by itself in a game in which those roles are possible would be serious). every game is different. it seems from my unscientific survey of ten games that scum are more likely to mention scum (including joking about it) in rvs and town seem more likely to joke about other things. I shared the results even though it didn't confirm that 100% of the time scum make the exact same joke that choof made (which isn't what i was expecting to happen anyway) becaue I had spent a while looking into it and i thought it was interesting.

Anyway, we could continue bickering about this or we could get on with the game.

[Plotinus]

I'm hereish. I'm pretty excited for this setup. I'd had my eye on it for a while. Is everyone else excited? My cat is yelling at me and it's making it hard to think.

Senator, Ricastle, + anyone else with a join date in the last month or two, are you guys alts or are you newbies like me?

[Plotinus]

I'm glad you did find the site again, Conman! I was playing on another forum for my first game but none of us knew what we were doing so we googled and found the wiki and then some of us signed up over here. Games here are pretty different than they are on the other place, the tone is different and the rules are different, and expectations for behaviour are different, but it's fun in both places. I have one completed newbie game here and one completed large theme game there. I'm not great at this but it's fun anyway.

pedit: @farside ok, i looked over your combined iso with bella and i'm just not seeing enough reason to sheep you on this. Your gut read is good enough for you, but I've got to consult my own gut. I did, but it's just grumbling something about a midnight snack.

+ I have a new rule about no voting after midnight.

pedit-again: hi bella. I know i'm fluffposting but a lot of people are still an indistinguishable mass of avatars to me at this time and I'm trying to do something about that. There will be less fluff from my slot later on.

[Plotinus]

I'm going through ISOs so I can ask people questions if I have them. I've only done 4 so far but I thought maybe it would be better to post the questions I've found so far now instead of waiting until I have a question for everybody because that way lies tl;dr.

Bella, can you explain how deflecting the spotlight off of yourself in 162 onto other people is furthing the town wincon? Because where I'm sitting on my re-read it's looking kinda like "scummy? me? i'm not scummy! he's scummy!" But I'm willing to entertain alternate explanations.

If choof's VLA then my vote's not doing much on him at the moment + I think it's served his purpose. UNVOTE: Choof

Choof, when you get back, if you dislike RVS/RQS do you have a different preferred ice breaking method?

Conman, in 109 you said that senator could be a heretic or xenos. Can you define both of those terms for me? I'm not familiar with them. + I don't know what Sanguine Son is either. (113) I can't tell if these terms for player roles/factions from another site or something else. If they are, maybe you could use the wiki to help translate?


I'll probably revote when I finish reading ISOs.

[Plotinus]

oh, okay, thanks for explaining.

[Plotinus]

So, if you replace out of this game we should lynch your slot, or?

[Plotinus]

fair enough

[Plotinus]

I understand why you could read it like that, but what I'm aiming at is...why has farside picked up on something (after 2 posts!) with my posts and not elsewhere. It says things about her read on con-man, and her interaction with him. Either Far thinks fluff-posting (or smilies, whatever ) are a scum-tell, or she has something else going on. (Flub asked her the same question...so the motivation here isn't just deflecting attention.) Also, I like this post enough to move my vote.

sorry, I meant to reply to this. thanks for poking me. My response was basically "fair enough". It's early in the game, I'm starting to get some early feelings about various slots but farside was having feelings a lot earlier than me, but she's more experienced too and maybe she's played with some of these people before and has some pre-game associations on which to base her early reads. It does seem that her read on you is more based on the average newbie than previous play with you in particular? I haven't played with anyone in this thread before either, and I noticed that some of the things she was pointing out about you are things townMe would do too, for example in my one completed game people (correctly) townread me for not reacting much to someone voting me.

so I don't really know if she was right to push you or not (except in the sense that early on it's good to push a lot of people a little bit and see what happens), but I liked your response to my question.

[Plotinus]

@Bella: right. That's why I used it as an example of the trouble with expecting every newbie to behave like the average newbie. I guess the flip side is that everyone's going to find different things scummy, so in one game you get townread for things and in another you get scumread for the same things.

and yeah, it's a big enough game. flailing about if someone puts you at L-8 is silly. maybe some people do it anyway, but it's still silly.

[Plotinus]

that was regarding 295 if it wasn't clear.

[Plotinus]

@bbt, you mentioned my rvs joke with ric: we're playing together in a concurrent game. His response was also a reference to this. I did explain this to farside, but I don't think your catch-up is there yet!

woah, bella, I totally missed that you guys were still playing that other game. there's a rule about talking about ongoing games so you need to be super careful because you can get modkilled over it. saying that you two are in an ongoing game together is ok I think but any more than that isn't. if your rvs joke was made based on a game that isn't completed, it probably crossed the line because it could affect people's reads of you both in both games. Keep that game stuff in that game until it's finished and this game stuff stays here until this is finished.

Your reads of each other may be affected by the concurrent game thing and that's ok because it's not something you can help but don't talk about it out loud and as the game progresses and you have more to go on, try to base your reads on this game only.

this comment is based on some stuff a mod told me privately when I had a similar problem.

[Plotinus]

Spoiler: @BBT

re 126, yeah I see it.

Not sure what to make of Ricastle/choof/lane, none of them are in my townread pile though. My early feelings:

I think choof responded to my vote as well as he could have, and I liked his interaction with flubbernugget too in 95 and 120.

I was surprised that Ricastle felt as strongly about my push on choof as he did but I'm glad that both of us have moved on because could you imagine us still jabbering about it on page 30? We can necro the joke when choof flips; sooner than that is pointless.

About the bit you asked me to comment on, I think that scum would definitely think things like:

I would have gladly got on a Flubber wagon if this idiot hadn't gone and exposed himself. Sorry guys.

Saying it in their out loud voice is dumb, though.

with lane i'm back and forth between "he has a point there" "yeah he's right about this thing" and "i can see why people are squinting at him"

For example, I did like Bella's push on lane in 342.

tl;dr: yeah I see it.



I also liked TheReverend's entrance.

@Bella: now you know. I would advise that the rest of us stop talking about it and that if people do bring it just change the subject: start talking about your this-game impressions. if people don't drop it say "I don't want to discuss ongoing games" and leave it at that. can't change the past. but ask this game's mod for help if you need it, they don't bite.

there's plenty of other posts in this game to talk about after all.

Spoiler: @RationalMadman

I'm still new enough that it's hard for me to tell for sure, and you only have my word to go on, but I think I'm tryhard regardless of alignment, but most of the tryhard gets funnelled to a private thread if I have access to one. I have one completed game as town on site and one completed game offsite where I was recruited to a cult on night 1 and I typed a ridiculous amount of tryhard speculation about the town in private. If I'd been able to type that much about other topics I might have done better in uni all those years ago, that was the amount of typing that happened.

Anyway, regardless of what decision you come to about my alignment, you should know that I don't have a lot of experience here or elsewhere so I'm not the best target for sheeping. I'm getting better each game but being able to explain what's in my head is not the same as being accurate. If we each do

our own

best, the town'll do well. If we all do

my

best, we're in trouble.

tl;dr: tryhard is probably a nulltell for me.

This ended up kinda long so I used spoilers.

[Plotinus]

tl;dr: tryhard is probably a nulltell for me.

What do you mean? How are you tryhard, Plotinus?

Spoiler: I never shut up

I write a lot. Maybe too much, but early on in my first completed game people were having trouble understanding where I was coming from until I figured out how to explain what I was thinking, and after that things improved because if I was misunderstanding or misreading something and my argument was based on that, then people could see where I was going wrong instead of just seeing that was writing nonesense, so it made it easier to resolve town vs town misunderstandings, at least some of the time anyway.

For example, in my first game, people were talking about tunnelling (post 90-93) and I didn't understand what that meant, and I thought one was accusing the other of tunnelling, but they were neither accusing nor tunnelling, so I butted in with a comment nobody understood but when I finally managed to explain myself they explained themselves to me and then we all understood each other. Since then, I try to skip the "what the hell Plotinus" step by just explaining what I'm thinking in the first place.

Most of my posts will probably be either on the topic of trying to understand other people, or trying to help other people understand me. (latter one, this time.)

It's early in this game, but later on I will probably go through at least one person's ISO without skimming and comment on every single post they've written. I'll use links not quotes and it'll be behind a spoiler with a summary outside of it. I don't think I'm immune to confirmation bias but really thorough ISO reading can change my mind about a person in either direction, but I'll need to finish a few more games before I'll know if I'm right and I'm still refining my reads-gathering methods to find what works best for me. My accuracy was lousy in my first game but I think I learned a lot from my mistakes in that game so I'll do better here, for a n00b anyway.

I'm already doing some ISO reading but it's still at the getting to know everyone stage, so at this point I'm primarily just looking for something to talk to them about to help me get a read on them.

[Plotinus]

Senator wrote:
In post 364, Plotinus wrote:
tl;dr: tryhard is probably a nulltell for me.

What do you mean? How are you tryhard, Plotinus?


I liked plot's explanation here. I'd like it better with a vote, though.

Who should have voted whom?

He asked me a question about myself and I answered it.

[Plotinus]

Oh, ok. yeah i keep wanting to finish reading ISOs and asking questions based on that and I keep not getting around to it because I keep finding more current things to talk about.

[Plotinus]

@BTT in reply to 379: I think that while it's too soon to be looking for associative tells, Bella has had at least some interaction with or about every slot except for TheReverend and Vettrock which is interesting since you're scumreading one of those and wanting to policy lynch the other. Dunno if it means anything because at this stage in the game, I think most people haven't interacted with everyone yet.

So far:

Spoiler: lazy summary of Bella's interactions with other slots

Bella seems to be trying to befriend you.
She likes choof a little.
She's scumreading conmanmick.
Her RVS was on FA_Q2 and since then has been lukewarm to them with mostly neutral interactions.
Has warmed up to farside.
Likes flubbernugget.
Mostly dislikes lane (except for some defending in 273 and 295).
Only a few neutral interactions with Papi Bear.
Started out voting me but likes me now.
Only one minor interaction with RationalMadman (then Jeanne11).
Has consistently been townreading ric since 98.
A few minor recent interactions with/about senator.
Completely ignores TheReverend and vettrock.
Likes Wrong Song

It's hard to tell the difference between newbie and scum sometimes. In my first game, one of the players just seemed so lost and overwhelmed by the whole game that my read on them was newbie town but they turned out to be scum. We had a different newbie with a power role that also seemed scummy so we lynched them. Another newer player was thrashing about so much I thought she had to be cornered newbie scum but she was town and was thrashing because we were going to mislynch her in LYLO (and we did).

Anyway, neutral on this wagon for now but I'm going to buckle down and finish my ISOing and notetaking and then we'll go from there.

[Plotinus]

Okay, I've finished rereading the thread. I'd been reading as it happened but I wanted the whole thing fresh in my mind. Ended up reading in order after adding a couple more ISOs to my notes because reading in order is faster. and now it's late and i'm tired but i'll share my reads list and try to explain it.

10+

BlueBloodedToffee

- like the catch up so far, looked over the thread with a sharp eye. I have been feeling less apathetic about the thread since BBT started posting and I like how he's showing his work and evaluating things but listens to input and is willing to change his mind about stuff.

FA_Q2

- looking for townmotivation in other people's posts, poking people when he doesn't find it, prompts people to explain themselves when they state that a read has changed without explaining why, liked 439.

8 to 5

farside22

- can see town motivation in her posts, has been scumhunting and asking people questions and stuff

Bellaphant

- was on the fence for a while but I'm liking the way she's responding to BBT's pushes against her. She's remaining calm and explaining herself.

Flubbernugget

- could usually see where he was coming from while reading through sequentially and was sometimes agreeing with him, but his ISO is hard to parse. wish he'd use the word "because" more, especially when talking about his reads.

3 to -2

Ricastle

- the rvs argument was kind of lame and i didn't get why he was asking me the same questions again and expecting different answers and it's kinda annoying when he brings it up now because i've moved on, but he does seem to be scumhunting and asking people questions and trying to understand where others are coming from.

choof

- I liked the way he responded to my RVS vote and that he didn't get overly defensive about it. But he hasn't really done anything this game.

Wrong Song

- hasn't done much yet.

Papi Bear

- prodging already :/ hasn't done much but keeps talking about how he'll eventually do something. Asking for people to summarise things when the game was only 13 pages long. It's not like we were on page 300 and he'd just replaced in.

ConManMick

- lots of fluff early on, had some nice towny posts but isn't asking many questions yet or trying to sort people

lane0168

- i don't even know he's pretty null

Senator

- his earlier posts weren't doing it for me, but I think he's getting more engaged in the game now

-3

RationalMadman

- hasn't done anything yet but suggest a policy lynch on lurkers. He's only just replaced in though so he can have some time to get caught up.

vettrock

- actively lurking, only posts to say that he's not doing anything.

-4

TheReverend

- I liked his entrance until BBT said that him focusing on the SK is a scumtell and now that he's said it I can see the point and I think I might have read that somewhere before I'd just forgotten it.

This is where I'd vote but I have a new rule about voting after midnight. The list is in order and the distinctions between the categories aren't that strong yet, but basically dark green and red are more than 1 standard deviation from the mean and the middle 3 colours are townlean, null, and scumlean.

[Plotinus]

I'm on board with any of those.

VOTE: The Reverend

[Plotinus]

You were when I posted that. Or you had been.

Posting thoughts is good. Reading the entire thread is good. We're not on page 300 here. Reading ISOs is good.

Sheeping is lazy. Skipping stuff is lazy.

You're at L-9 at the moment so you have time to read and make decisions and think about people.

[Plotinus]

Agree that he's coasting. Posting to say that you don't have anything to say is a turn off for me and about a third of his posts have been that. I saw one game while metadiving someone in my completed newbie game in which scum said on day 1 that they were trying a new thing and being a lurksack was protown (except they worded it better) and they actually got away with it, survived to the end as mafia. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p6511847 (post 246) So I think of that when I see people saying they're not reading, or that they're skipping stuff or wishing people'd talk less or just any form of "hey guys I'm lurking does anyone want to think for me so i don't have to".

Sometimes I have trouble figuring out what my own opinion is but asking other people what my opinion should be (like Papi did a few times) does the opposite of help with that.

So, I'm happy with this wagon too.

VOTE: Papi Bear

That's L-5 if I counted right. not sure why he's acting as if he's at L-1.

[Plotinus]

@TheReverend I'm townreading BBT and I am of the opinion that BBT knows more about theory than I do, and I expect that if BBT were to lie about theory somebody else would tell him why he was wrong or there would be an argument about it and then I'd learn something. I have been liking the rest of your catchup posts and you've moved up a few places since then. BBT's theory will affect my read of you, but I won't base my entire read on any one thing once I have more to go on. At the time I wrote that, you'd only had a few posts so not a lot to go on + an experienced player saying they caught scumtells that I missed made me suspicious, but I took about half a day of thinking about that between reading BBT's opinion and posting my reads list and then another 10 hours before I voted you -- I slept on it instead of just following along.

This is a game of persuasion. Sometimes I will be the one to persuade, sometimes I will be the persuaded.

I'm a lot more sure of my vote on Papi at this point than I was of you, and everyone else who had voted you has unvoted by now. Anyway, keep scumhunting and you'll rise into the yellow group.

@Dave yes, there is a forum site for a niche indie game that I'm fairly well known on with this username, and I think I used this name a few other places too. Why?

[Plotinus]

no, I'm not on that site, so whoever you know over there isn't me.

[Plotinus]

@lane yeah jeanne is suspect and the person who replaced her too. But if we wagon all of the suspicious people at once it'll be a no lynch, no?

I'm inclined to disbelieve Papi's claim. The doctor should have been scumhunting and trying to figure out who is guilty and innocent in his readthroughs so that he'd be able to guess who to protect tonight.

[Plotinus]

VC 1.15

(9)

Papi Bear

:

Plotinus, RationalMadman, Bellaphant, lane, BlueBloodedToffee,

Ricastle

,

flubbernugget

, The Reverend, FA_Q2

(4)RationalMadman:

Davesaz, Wrong Song, ConManMick, farside

(1)Davesaz:

Papi Bear

(1)The Reverend:

Senator

Not Voting:

Choof

Wanderer-nl

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2015-05-03 12:00:00)

Yay, down two scum already! So, does anyone else think it is unlikely that both scum were bussing Papi? I don't think that clears anyone on the wagon of being the SK, especially RationalMadman, but I think we should try to hunt the remaining mafia first.

ConManMick had two reads yesterday (flubber and bella) which wasn't very many.
WrongSong only had 13 posts but had more opinions than ConMan
I think I'll be able read Wanderer when she replaces in, though I've only seen her as town. hi Wanderer!
Davesaz only has 3 posts with opinions in them.
Senator and farside both had opinions if I remember right and their ISOs actually have posts in them.


preview-edit: @Bella yes. and on our side we have 3 docs, a backup doc, and a tracker.

[Plotinus]

Davesaz only has 3 posts with opinions in them.

This doesn't really

need

defending, but we're in such a good position that I don't want any worthless leads to be out there.

I wasn't actually caught up -- work avalanched about the same time I replaced in and this is my first opportunity since then.

I know you just replaced in and you're still getting caught up. I've liked your posts so far today, and I think it's great that you've dived into looking for connections with Flubber. I think everyone off Papi's wagon is more suspicious than everyone on the wagon, but the list I gave wasn't in a particular order and I wouldn't currently consider you to be near the scummier end of it. You've already doubled the amount of quality posts in your ISO, so my read on you is sliding out of null and into town.

[Plotinus]

Summary of why people who weren't voting Papi didn't vote Papi (with links where applicable):

ConManMick was off Papi wagon because uncomfortable lynching claimed doc, voted RMM instead, gave benefit of the doubt for Papi not reading and liked Papi's cursory scumhunting, was scumreading flubber for trying to bait him into joining the Papi wagon (712, 713,717, 736)

davesaz was off Papi wagon because not replaced in and not fully caught up, and didn't feel BBT's case was strong enough (573, 586)

farside22 voted Papi in 472, then voted RMM in 749, didn't really explain the switch. why RMM is obvious but why not Papi isn't.

Senator scumread Papi in 445 but then found TheReverend's play to be like scum hammering a mislynch (793 but he spent a lot of posts on TheReverend) and grew less convinced in the Papi wagon over time

Wanderer-nl was off Papi wagon because inactive but had slight negative early opinion of Papi (319)

WrongSong was off the Papi wagon because hesitant about voting a claimed doc, voted RMM instead. (647, 651)


and a special mention for the scummiest person on the wagon:

RationalMadman reason for joining Papi wagon: "yay for bandwagons" 488.

[Plotinus]

*davesaz was JUST replaced in, not "not replace" in

EBWOP

[Plotinus]

@Bella why don't you think RMM is SK?

[Plotinus]

that's a good point, Bella. madman's hop on the wagon was terribly opportunistic, but they haven't shown much signs of paying attention to the game as a whole. it's also possible they got lucky; after the flip they had a 14% chance (1 in 7) of randomly getting a mafia. But it's more likely there was some skill involved.


yeah, sk is a third party, they have to get rid of the mafia and the town.

[Plotinus]

the game we're playing has a wiki page http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... ntal_Large

If you scroll down to the bottom, there are sample suggested role PMs.

[Plotinus]

As seen in post 1 (and each of our inboxes), our mod didn't copy paste from the wiki, but I think it's probable that the win conditions and powers are basically the same just with different wording.

[Plotinus]

@Plotinus: what was your reason for finding mafia first and SK after?

easier by associative clues, and also we might get lucky again if the SK kills the remaining mafia for us, perhaps by mistake. I'll be just as happy with an SK lynch as with a mafia lynch though. We had a great day 1. Maybe we can try for a perfect town win.

I want to reread farside and senator's ISOs, but pending that I think I'm happiest with a WrongSong lynch. BBT makes me nervous because it's harder to think for myself around him but I'm not scumreading him for that.

Spoiler: quotes from wrongsong about papi and flubber, snipped the parts that were about other people

I do have to say I agree with people about hating RMM's 321.

I don't really like Papi Bear's reaction to that post though. It's very defensive even though it's not really directed mainly at him. RMM just said any lurker and it wasn't like PB was the only lurker currently in the game.

Con I'm not bothered by the formatting of your vote. Only your response to it. It's tough to stir up a game with a half assed commitment to a vote

I think Flubber could be town. His thought process is transparent.

(snip)

I got a slight town lean on Bella (it's gut) and Flubber. I'm also liking RiCastle for maybe town.

Yeah, I'm sorry I think Papi is town. >___>

VOTE: RMM

Anyway, seems like WrongSong was townleaning two scum, and the flubber reason was pretty weak. She complains about Papi at one point but doesn't vote him. She has a good point about him in 454 but then in 651 thinks he's town.

VOTE: WrongSong

@Farside: in 749 you voted for RMM, unvoting Papi in the process. The why RMM part was pretty obvious I think but why not Papi? Why were you happier with RMM lynch than Papi lynch at the time?

@BBT and Farside: I always hope that my friends are town because I like them and I hope to not have to lynch them. But I will if they turn out to be scum after all. I hope that my friends are town in a way that I don't hope that strangers are anything in particular.


preview-edit: I'm okay with RMM lynch too, but this is where I want my vote for now.

[Plotinus]

haha

[Plotinus]

that makes sense. i think i feel better of both of your slots for 1040.

[Plotinus]

wouldn't claiming PR/not PR make it easier for scum to target their night kills?

[Plotinus]

I can see some benefit to the "tracker should claim as vanilla townie if we're massclaiming" lie. but i also think it is premature to try massclaiming, even mass softclaiming.

[Plotinus]

I was replying to bella about whether all lies as town would be bad.

I think that the tracker should not claim tracker if a massclaim. i think they shouldn't claim unless they have a guilty and even then should try to build a case without claiming if they can.

i don't know whether we should do partial massclaim or full but

I don't think we should do either right now.

[Plotinus]

Oh my, I just tried to meta RMM.

is he always like this?

[Plotinus]

all caught up, then BBT?

[Plotinus]

@WrongSong what does yellow mean? You're using it for both yourself and BBT.

[Plotinus]

it would be funny if farside and senator claimed PR too.

[Plotinus]

well I was considering moving it to dave but I was waiting until I could do that without sheeping (that is: i was waiting until I'd reread dave's admittedly short ISO and thought critically about it by myself), because my personality is naturally sheepy and I'm working on thinking for myself, but he's now claimed too so that's on hold until we get more claims than are probable.

I've been pretty underwhelmed by Wrong Song so far and I didn't even notice the doc softclaim until The Reverend pointed it out, and so if the remaining scum are not very good at crumbhunting then The Reverend has tossed them a bone and I'm not pleased by that unless Wrong Song's softclaim/crumb was obvious to everyone except me in which case I retract that argument, but I'm not ready to vote The Reverend because I'm pretty sure the remaining mafia is off the wagon.

Of the people I mentioned in 890 who haven't claimed, farside's reason for being off the wagon is the one I'm least happy with at the moment:

senator's feels genuine to me, like he was genuinely scumreading The Reverend there for reasons that made sense.
I liked wanderer's catchup and she feels like she's on the ball.

Lemme look through farside's ISO again for mentions of flub/papi and i'll get back to you.

[Plotinus]

was a small VCA analysis.

I could see that, but it was missing the analysis part where you draw conclusions from the colour patterns and share them.

[Plotinus]

Gun to my head I really want to say it's Plotinus for that weird jump onto the PB wagon when it was first starting out, however, not sure how beneficial it would be to scum to have both players bussing the same scum at the end of the day.

Also it doesn't really matter which of the SK/Mafia we lynch first. Right now both the mafia AND the SK need to work together to win (I know that sounds like an odd statement, but with the amount of players and pr's in the game it's actually truth).

Also I swear to god whoever invented the tell that because someone townleans/townreads fucking confirmed scum doesn't exactly mean that person is scum. it's the most flawed and mislogical tell I have ever seen someone try to use. I mean town don't know who scum are nor do they know who town are, they need to hunt and unless someone is a scumhunting god they are going to get it wrong.

I'd be okay with a RMM lynch, okay with a Plotinus lynch. I might even be okay with a Bella or a Lane lynch, but that's based on gut from the mafia kill more than anything.

The theory that I had CMM as scum for is invalid due to there's no way Spartan/CMM can be scum together.

or, wait, was this the analysis part?

agree about third and fifth paragraphs and parts of the fourth. I think scum are more likely to be null or scumleaning their partners on day 1 and that would better camouflage them because townies are rightfully scumleaning/scumreading them.

[Plotinus]

There aren't any masons or innocent children in this setup.

[Plotinus]

I understand FA_Q2's reasoning in 1183 and I'm townreading the slot so I agree with a massclaim for now. What order should we go in?

preview-edit:
[quote=The Reverend
It's like he's trying to dodge the scum NK as opposed lynch.[/quote]

wait, what? If BBT were really confirmed town (instead of just saying he is again and again) wouldn't that more likely draw the NK to him? If we all agree with BBT that BBT is conftown (which I agree is weird becauseI don't remember masons in this setup), won't BBT be more likely to be night killed, not less?

[Plotinus]

we only have two scum left and it's possible some of them have already fakeclaimed so that's why I think it makes sense to do this.

[Plotinus]

I thought BBT thought some of the others were lying.

I also claim VT

[Plotinus]

yeah that might be better.

[Plotinus]

340 - Reverend is very likely to be SK, and if not, he is scum. Most of the time, when people are hunting a SK it's because they are one or they're scum concerned with who can kill them.

I remembered that from before.

[Plotinus]

No, I hate giving myself up to be lynched. I'm 100% town, I cannot say the same for anyone else in this game with the same level of certainty.

Remember that if I die Plotinus.

I'm confirmed town if I'm right on the PR. You know it and I know it.

well if you die you'll be confirmed one way or the other, but why was this directed at me? My last post was just a corroboration of what you said. You said you thought Reverend was SK. I remembered that you'd said it before and linked it.

I think I understand the PR thing actually, the logic being that you would have nightkilled them the prior night.

[Plotinus]

@Bella I don't fully understand it either and I'm hoping it's not referring to any ongoing games other than this one. (it isn't on my end)

@The Reverend you say that you're not looking for PRs but you commented on Wrong Song's crumbs which at least one player (me) wouldn't have noticed had you not pointed them out.

@BBT: I can accept that there is value in looking for crumbs: practicing for the next time you role scum (especially for a newbie just learning to crumbhunt), in Matrix6 as a powerrole to look for scumcrumbing impossible alignments, or trying to avoid mislynching people. But I do find this crowing that you're conftown to be a bit distasteful.

[Plotinus]

I simultaneously think that the fact that SK nailed mafia last night hints that the SK is good at scumhunting (which doesn't mean it's BBT but it suggests something), and also think that if BBT is the SK then BBT will have a burden of proficiency problem later on in the game when after nailing the last mafia BBT will have to lead us on lynches against townies for a few days before we get suspcious that BBT is suddenly less good at this. As such I'm not really interested in pursuing the matter of whether BBT is SK or not at this time because I think it will sort itself out eventually.

Like, I also think that being suspicious of people on the grounds that they're good at scumhunting is shooting town in the foot.

@Bella &BBT: the part that I don't get is what my name was doing in this sentence:

Remember that if I die Plotinus

I understood the rest, sorry. I was asking for clarification on why BBT thinks BBT will be conftown and BBT confirmed that I understood BBT's viewpoint.

[Plotinus]

Hahaha.

OK, but that would mean I would first have to out a PR.

Do you think I would get town points for outing a PR for no reason?

well you did kinda (lane, if it's true), but we're already massclaiming

[Plotinus]

Oh, I was saying you should remember that I thought Reverend was SK if I died.

oh, ok. well then I will continue to remember that.

[Plotinus]

[Plotinus]

oh, i thought you were saying "whoops I claimed the wrong thing in light of what BBT just said" and that's why I was facepalming. (Whether I'm right or wrong about this, please don't clarify) Carry on!

[Plotinus]

I like that plan. I didn't get it a few days ago but I've been thinking about it since then and I think I get it now.

[Plotinus]

we're massclaiming PR or VT (no more details than that) and it's your turn. after you you go, you pick someone that hasn't already claimed. but do read the last few pages.

[Plotinus]

I also initially thought there would be a Fire doc, earth doc, water doc. I was also expecting there to be flavour in the kills so we'd know that someone died of fire or water or earth and for the flips to show which mafia were which, but I read on the wiki that it explicitly said the mafia elements weren't supposed to be revealed on flips and there's probably some balance or outguessing-the-mod related reason for that.

but from a flavour perspective it would have been nice.

[Plotinus]

UNVOTE: I am also happy to wait until everyone checks in

[Plotinus]

UNVOTE: WrongSong

[Plotinus]

She was at L-6 so she wasn't in much danger of being lynched, but my vote was no longer where I wanted it.

[Plotinus]

i'm not changing my claim. I'm VT.

I'm townreading FA, but I'm okay with Farside -- spent a while with their combined ISO with flubber and papi yesterday.

VOTE: Farside

[Plotinus]

I read it. I'd like to see FA_Q2's response to it. I read FA_Q2's ISO yesterday myself because I realised I hadn't interacted with their slot very much yet and I was hoping to find something to ask them about or talk to them about to get a better read on their slot but instead I ended up townreading them without having anything much to say. But basically:

I liked FA_Q2's early push on flubber in 112.

The confusion about how many people were voting flubber at the time seemed genuine and it seemed like a good thing to be cautious about.

I liked how FA_Q2 had been interacting with a variety of slots and trying to scumhunt. They seemed to be paying attention and their responses often pointed things out about other players that I had missed. I have never played with them before so I don't know if they're always like this regardless of alignment or not, but their scumhunting seems genuine to me.

In 510, FA_Q2 says that flubber is slightly scummy but not as scummy as the person they're voting and someone else, which is a reasonable reason to be voting where they are.

I liked 610.

The way I see it, FA_Q2 spent day 1 pushing on a number of different slots, including papi and flubber but also conman and madman and some others. I guess I read 892 as being a hindsight thing. FA_Q2 pushed on flubber some early on but then pursued other targets but then looked back and saw that flubber was scummy all along. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm wrong a lot lately. FA_Q2 did hammer though and I do still think a doublebus is less likely than the third mafia being off the wagon.

I'd still like to see FA_Q2's response to your points though.

[Plotinus]

VOTE: The Reverend choo choo

[Plotinus]

no, just giddy that we're nailing our third scum on day 2

[Plotinus]

and I know nothing about SK hunting either. I played an offsite game with 3 SKs and no mafia that completed a while ago and the SKs didn't know each other (there was a weird mechanic for picking who would kill each night), and after the game they all said they chose their kill based on whoever couldn't be tied to them: no one who was suspicious of them and nobody they thought could potentially be another of the SKs. it was weird. anyway that's literally all I know about SKs and I'm not even sure it counts.

[Plotinus]

oh, that's clever. what you'd get from people's reactions is who the other power roles are, isn't it?

[Plotinus]

(my motivation for 1514: my second newbie game just ended and as a town powerrole I derphammered the other town powerrole on day 1. his reaction to something that both of us seem to have interpreted as a crumb for a role that we knew wasn't in our setup could have clued me in that he was the other one, but it didn't. My head is still kinda in that game and I'm thinking about things I could have noticed but didn't)

[Plotinus]

@FA: I think we're still discussing strategy for hunting the SK tomorrow and how exactly the tracker should be protected tonight (what elements the docs should protect to make sure she's fully covered) but the reverend is obviously today's lynch.

[Plotinus]

just say what element you're protecting Bella (the tracker) with (not water someone else is doing water) first, I think that's all we're waiting for?

[Plotinus]

and sorry to hear about your job and I hope you end up finding a better one, that really sucks.

[Plotinus]

ohhhh. Sorry I am very literal minded.

[Plotinus]

If the docs think I'm the best choice to be tracked that's fine but I think we should also consider the chance that I'll end up innocent: I'm worried that becoming conftown (as I will be if I'm tracked, don't go anywhere, and yet there is a kill) will degrade my (beginner-level) ability to develop reads. It may be more valuable to the town to have stronger, better players to be confirmed as town or determined guilty.

If this statement makes all of you want me tracked all the more then go ahead: maybe we'll get lucky with tomorrow's lynch or tomorrow night's track and maybe it will be a good learning experience for me anyway.

[Plotinus]

I just think "conftown + strong town leader" is a winning combination.

[Plotinus]

I just think "conftown + strong town leader" is a winning combination.

What makes you think bbt is not the SK?

I know that BBT is good at being a townleader. If BBT were contown that would be great. If BBT were the SK, he would be caught. Tracking BBT or another strong player = win/win. Either he's town and become a stronger asset or he's scum and yay we lynch them yay town win.

There are other players like myself and I don't want to name names because that sounds mean that if you track us and we're guilty then yay town win but if we're innocent then we're still going to be bumbling around.

The flaw in this plan is that the SK might start nightkilling in the conftown pool instead of the PR pool but I don't think they can afford that for a few days; they need to try to get rid of some of the docs and then the tracker first.

[Plotinus]

We can trust that conftown players have town motivations in their posts. We can't trust them to be correct or especially observant or great at scumhunting or anything else.

[Plotinus]

went through and made a list of people (aside from confscum or dead conftown) who mentioned SKs on day 1.

VTs:
farside: 347, 448 (pushing flubber)
BBT: 371 (in response to reverend pushing lane for SK)
me: 446 (in response to BBT pushing reverend)
senator: 772 832 (pushing BBT), 845 (kinda)

so I guess this is the short list of people who should be tracked.

[Plotinus]

I did ctrl f on " SK" (the space to keep me from catching the sk in "ask" which would have driven me crazy). any other mentions were not caught.

[Plotinus]

trust your gut bella. you'll do fine.

[Plotinus]

I did ctrl f on " SK" (the space to keep me from catching the sk in "ask" which would have driven me crazy). any other mentions were not caught.

Oh do capitals matter? When I looked at flubber-associations I always searched flub, not Flub. I might be not too accurate anymore bah. Doesn't matter much because mafia is caught now so phew.

Well, sleep tight almost everyone.
Rev, have fun in the afterlife.

depends on your browser. Mine isn't case sensitive, but including a space before sk meant it only found words that started with sk instead of finding the letters sk in the middle of a word like ask. It just made searching all those pages go a little faster. lane was right that I should have looked for third and 3rd too but didn't think to.

@Bella: even confirming someone as town gives us something to work with. hope for a guilty but an inno is okay too.

[Plotinus]

Is 1617 the reason why not farside?

preview-edit: I prefer farside to senator.

[Plotinus]

VOTE: Farside

docs should protect Bella again tonight like before.

[Plotinus]

what do you think of this flashwagon thing, wanderer?

[Plotinus]

I hope you feel better soon, Wanderer.

I think talking to each other won't hurt anything. We don't have to worry about the SK finding out who the power roles are because they already know. maybe talking to each other will help. The SK wants us to mislynch today, they have that much in common with regular scum at least.

I think the cross section between the people who were talking about the SK on day 1 and the people who claimed VT might be fruitful (especially if we take context into account -- for example I think it was scummier of Reverend to be SK hunting early in the thread than it was for BBT to say Reverend might be scum because he was talking about the SK early in the thread. They both mentioned the SK but the one was a reaction to the other. Farside was SK hunting on page 14. (post 347)

[Plotinus]

yeah. a perfect town win would be nice after the 2 perfect scum wins that are my completed games (i was town both times).

SK is probably going to kill from the PR pool because eventually the SK wants to be able to hit the tracker, no?

[Plotinus]

I can think of a way for the SK to still win this but maybe I shouldn't say what it is on the off chance that I'm not wrong -- no need to give them ideas if they haven't thought of it themselves. I think it's unlikely for the SK to win but I don't think it's impossible.

preview-edit: senator, then I guess. or BBT.

I'm okay with being mislynched I just don't want to be mislynched toDay when we still have a chance of a perfect town victory.

preview-edit again: VOTE: Senator

[Plotinus]

yeah, I think I was wrong about farside too. i misremembered who it was that suggested this breaking strategy. sorry farside!

[Plotinus]

I'm not. I don't know why you feel that way about me aside from the fact that I'm in the VT lynch pool and I'm not sure what if anything I can do to change your mind. Is there anything I can do, though?

[Plotinus]

like, I feel like your read on me has been flip flopping a bit this game and I'm not really sure why.

[Plotinus]

oh, ok. It does make sense to look everywhere. Thanks for explaining.

[Plotinus]

Burden of proficiency on day 2?

[Plotinus]

FA's theory is right -- I was wrong last night. It was too late for me to be thinking clearly. I did the same numbers that FA did and came to the opposite conclusion because I was tired and wasn't thinking what conftown meant. What I was thinking doesn't work, we will win regardless what the SK does.

[Plotinus]

YAY! Good game everyone!

[Plotinus]

*twitching*

BBT can we talk about this sometime now that you know that I was town here because I think sometimes I say dumb things and I want to say less dumb things.

My motive for what I said was: I really was wrong yesterday. My being wrong yesterday might have given the SK false hope. If I take away that false hope now maybe the SK will just give up like they should have done yesterday.

[Plotinus]

Is there anything that can be done to punish town for massclaiming, or to make town less likely to do it?

[Plotinus]

yeah, you guys were great! Also farside did good with the strategy and FA_Q2 with the maths.

btw I was totally sheeping BBT before he joined this game; some of my earliest posts in this game were based on some posts that BBT made in my recently completed second newbie game on day 1.

[Plotinus]

would flavour text relating to what element was used make the game more townsided? because if not it would have been fun to see what elements were being used during the day.

what if there was a rock paper scissors mechanic where instead of holding the element water meaning protected from water and killing with water it would mean killing fire and being protected from earth.

[Plotinus]

fire beats earth, earth beats water, water beats fire? but i think tha tmakes it harder to kill the sk actually because only 1 element can kill him each night instead of 2 so maybe it was a bad idea. idk it's past my bedtime

[Plotinus]

Being nightkilled is an honour as a townie! You should be proud Ricastle -- it means scum was scared of you so you were doing something right!

[Plotinus]

Thanks for explaining! I read on the wiki or something that mastin said you should indicate how sure you are of your thoughts so that if you're nightkilled people won't mistake your scumlean on someone for a strong scumread, but I might take it too far. I do try to telegraph exactly how certain or uncertain I am at any given time but I think I take it too far sometimes because I've been accused of wishywashiness before. I think I'll develop confidence over time with more experience.

I think we all played well together but we were kind of all coasting a bit until you replaced in and told us to lynch Papi, or at least that's how I felt about my own play.

I agree that it's good to check every avenue when scumhunting. I've correctly townread wanderer three times now but she'll be scum eventually and then I'll have to not townread her by habit.


I'm glad we had a perfect townwin. It also would have been nice to play longer and get to know everyone more, though. Still it's nice to be able to finally tick the "be on the lynching wagon of a scum player" achievement in my 3rd game, and it wasn't for lack of voting in my previou games

[Plotinus]

bah, my kingdom for an edit button