Open 624 Fire and Ice - Fire Mafia Wins

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Masquerade
Obviously hiding something.

[Something_Smart]

I find it weird how Shinobi comes in with an RVS vote, followed by bashing everyone's RVS votes, followed by another RVS vote.
I can understand trying to get out of RVS early, but that wasn't what he was doing. But I think it would be unusual for scum to call attention to themselves that early.
I also find it weird how Viva meta'd Shinobi right away and spit back his profile information. I think this is more likely to be scum than Shinobi, seeing as it's an early push for a reason that seems NAI to me.

[Something_Smart]

@Viva:
I think there was no need to meta him to find that it was weird. You're certainly not going to find that he always does it as scum but never as town, that's ridiculous.
I think your push was out of place and trying too hard to paint his behavior as scummy.
And of course it's NAI. What would scum gain from doing it?

[Something_Smart]

You are trying too hard to attack NAI behavior. There are inconsistencies in your play. You have shown that Shinobi knows how to do RVS. So obviously, if he wanted to act normally, he could have. But then you're saying that he doesn't realize that's not normal?
I can't tell if you're scum already pushing someone for a bad reason or town who actually believes what you're saying. But for now I'm leaning toward the former.

[Something_Smart]

SS.
Shinobi asked me what my other scum reads when half the game hadn't posted and what had been said was all RVS.
How ELSE do I interpret it?

So obviously, if he wanted to act normally, he could have.

Why couldn't I be right and he could have slipped up and made a poor play while trying too hard to look town?
Everyone's played well as scum before. Why can't any scummy thing by Shinobi be written off as "oh obviously if he wanted to act towny he could have"?
Why is it not likely that Shinobi wanted to present himself as trying hard to scumhunt before it was an appropriate reaction to the game state?
If you're saying that that was a reaction test, what reactions was Shinobi looking for? Why hasn't he followed up on it?

I don't know why he did it. You don't know why he did it. You may be right, but you DON'T KNOW. Stop acting like you do.
And stop misrepresenting me. I didn't say that he always knows how to look town, but that he knows how to look town in RVS.
And by the way, the one trying to present himself as trying hard to scumhunt before it's an appropriate reaction to the game state is you, not him.

[Something_Smart]

Oh lol there's two SS's.
Aristo, do you think Viva is scum? Or do you just want to pressure him?
I don't think that logic was necessarily scum logic, but it was bad, so I'm okay with this.
VOTE: Viva

[Something_Smart]

I care because Aristo did not say he was scumreading you, he just said the page was "dumb". So I wanted to clarify.
And nobody's going to get autolynched. I don't even think Shinobi's town; I have him at null right now because he's done nothing but challenge people.

[Something_Smart]

If Shinobi was trying to avoid being suspected, why would he enter in a provocative way rather than RVSing like normal?

[Something_Smart]

Okay I really don't like Viva right now. I already explained a few of the reasons but there are even more now: calling Shinobi's page one play a slip, which is a great way to push a bad lynch without much evidence; thinking about NK's and LYLO on day 1; and moving his vote around without good reasons.

[Something_Smart]

Explain to me the difference between a slip and a slip up please?

[Something_Smart]

It sounds like the same thing. Or similar enough that it doesn't matter to me which one you called it.

[Something_Smart]

So a slip is something that reveals your alignment as scum.
A slip-

up

is where you make a mistake.
To reveal that you are scum is obviously a mistake. Therefore, a slip is a slip-up.
Scum want to conceal their alignments. Therefore, a slip-up made by scum is alignment-revealing, therefore it is a slip.
I'm sorry if I am misunderstanding you here.

Regardless of semantics, the one goal all alignments share is to avoid being lynched. One of the biggest mistakes any player can make (and certainly the biggest that applies to both alignments) is to allow themself to be lynched.
So your argument is, he did something that made him easier to lynch, therefore we should lynch him?

[Something_Smart]

You colossally slipped up on page 1 and the rest of your play has been an incredibly forced attempt to look like a good boy scumhunter.
Where do you think you get off asking people what their 'other townreads' are and criticizing RVS votes on the first page?
Riddle me this batman.

Okay I'm sorry I misunderstood this then. I thought Viva was pushing Shinobi based on his "colossal slip up".

[Something_Smart]

Beeboy do you think I knew the difference between slip and slip up but purposely confused them?
I guess now Viva is pushing Shinobi because he did a dumb thing and tried to cover it up in a scummy way. But I still don't like the way he is doing it.

[Something_Smart]

Hi droog

[Something_Smart]

I can understand trying to get out of RVS early, but that wasn't what he was doing.

i actually think thats exactly
what he was doing
why do you think differencly/

'Cause right after criticizing everyone's RVS he placed another RVS vote.

[Something_Smart]

I have decent townleans on beeboy and masquerade.
Slight townleans on shadow, supreme, snarky and aristo.
Not sure about the rest.

[Something_Smart]

My only real scumlean is viva; possibly cobalting as well. Still thinking about Shinobi and droog, and waiting on ika and BEF.

[Something_Smart]

@Masquerade: I've already explained Viva. As for you, I really liked how you responded to pressure, particularly 123.
@Supreme: it's not just that Cobalting's thrown out unexplained readlists, but it's also that they've done little actual playing in the game. (My point about planning for LYLO also applies.)

[Something_Smart]

Beeboy that's a good point but wifom so idk

[Something_Smart]

Viva is scum mostly because his reaction to Shinobi on the first few pages is terrible. His logic is awful, especially since he's saying "only scum do weird stuff early" when he does weird things like looking up and posting Shinobi's profile. He's scum by his own logic.
Cobalting has made an effort to avoid analyzing anything. It makes them hard to read, which makes them lean scum.
@beeboy why are you scumreading Snarky?

[Something_Smart]

@people who've played with ika before: does he frequently ask to be voted?
Beeboy why are you scumreading ika? Lack of content?

[Something_Smart]

So ika doesn't like day 1, but his lack of content is not due to that and instead because he is scum?
What about his reaction was scummy?

[Something_Smart]

It also means he'll have more to respond to. He should be the first to respond to Wolf.
And why does that make him harder to question?

[Something_Smart]

Ika and Beeboy are probably both town.

this

Gotta see what ika says but for now I agree.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: cobalting
I can back the "explain your reads" sentiment.

This is a bad vote.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: cobalting
I can back the "explain your reads" sentiment.

This is a bad vote.

What's that supposed to mean?

Several people have indicated that Ranger does exactly this all the time. Even if you do want her reads explained, it doesn't follow that you think she's scum. This is opportunism.

[Something_Smart]

Just because nothing precludes someone from being scum, it doesn't make them scum.
You voted for a reason, but on closer examination that reason is crap. It was basically an excuse to join the leading wagon without strongly committing.

[Something_Smart]

So it's OMGUS?

[Something_Smart]

I'm pretty committed to this wagon - I don't know why you think I'm not.

Yeah, you tell him you are tunneling. #ROASTED

I don't get it

Shinobi if you're so committed why don't you make a case on Cobalting?

[Something_Smart]

You say you're committed, but your actions don't reflect that. You haven't pushed the wagon at all, nor given any compelling reasons. Therefore, until you actually do what you say you are doing, I will continue to call you opportunistic.

[Something_Smart]

This just in: voting is noncommittal.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm pretty committed to this wagon - I don't know why you think I'm not.

...

[Something_Smart]

what does that mean...

[Something_Smart]

what does that mean...

That was the sound of that joke going over your head.

your point?
are you committed or not?

[Something_Smart]

Then why don't you have any real reasons?

[Something_Smart]

My reasons are plenty real, tyvm.

Then why don't you share them?

[Something_Smart]

Whoa that wagon happened fast. Those last few votes in particular could be scumvotes. I'm intending to see Shinobi's reaction before I vote. (He said he had real reasons for voting Cobalting, so unless he gives them and a valid explanation for not sharing them, he's probably scum.)
@Supreme yeah ika's vote wasn't great either, but I think it was just ika being ika. Also it wasn't onto a wagon.

[Something_Smart]

Spoiler: lol nope

{beeboy}
{Snarky Snowman, Aristophanes}
{ika}
{Something_Smart, Shinobi}
{Viva la Gloria}

Because?

I dislike how you pushed it mostly.
What was the point of quoting her profile?

I'm a man.

I'd pl shinobi if I had to

-pc

Why?

{beeboy}
{Snarky Snowman, Aristophanes}
{ika}
{Something_Smart, Shinobi}
{Viva la Gloria}

Because?

I dislike how you pushed it mostly.
What was the point of quoting her profile?

I'm a man.

I'd pl shinobi if I had to

-pc

Why?

I don't want you in lylo by your first impression

-pc

Reads like a garbage excuse to me.

VOTE: cobalting
I can back the "explain your reads" sentiment.

These are all the times you mentioned Cobalting before the vote. If this is all, then it's a very weak and opportunistic vote. Your explanation after the fact is a variant of OMGUS: "they're scumreading me and they won't say why" which is a scum mindset.
I'm fine with this.
VOTE: Shinobi

[Something_Smart]

Town can be wrong, too. If somebody isn't explaining a scumread on you, especially when it's their meta to do so, they may simply be wrong. But you, who knows they're right, are upset by this, and try to discredit them.
Also, nice AtE.

[Something_Smart]

Not "you're wrong."
Just "you're bad."
Lol.

[Something_Smart]

Nope.

[Something_Smart]

Nope.

Then what's the comment about me being me?

I've read some of your games and I've seen how you act around SW, and it's a lot easier to see that a vote is idiosyncratic rather than scummy if it's not on a major wagon.

[Something_Smart]

I think it's better to lynch scum, idk about you man...

[Something_Smart]

Shinobi's probably not scum though?
And even if he is he's an awful day one lynch.
Vote someone who is trying to stay under the radar, like Shadow.

Stop changing your story. First he's scum and deserves to be lynched, then he's scum who SHOULDN'T be lynched (?), now he's probably not scum. And you haven't explained any of it.

I think it's better to lynch scum, idk about you man...

Dumb statements are dumb.

Actually, I think the dumb statement is Viva trying to lynch based on activity rather than scumminess. The Shadow lynch is basically a PL.

VOTE: the_shadow
I can do a shadow lynch.

Oh look! More opportunism!
We are absolutely lynching Shinobi today. This is unacceptable.

[Something_Smart]

So your vote is OMGUS because you're annoyed that he's right?

[Something_Smart]

My argument is that Shinobi is scummy whereas Shadow is null and lurking. Lurking is not alignment indicative because rl.

Shinobi's snark is flailing.

Aristo! Vote Shinobi with me!

[Something_Smart]

Shit, Viva is probably town.

No, Viva is probably Shinobi's scumbuddy.
(Which would make the other team {Supreme Overlord, Something_Smart} if I'm right on my reads. I'll check that in a bit. Need to get caught up first.)

You think Viva and Shinobi are a team after Viva's big push on Shinobi early in the day?

[Something_Smart]

Please tell me why shinobi is scum

Several opportunistic votes without real reasons. Couldn't give reasons, even when pressed. Became upset after being wagoned, but in a flail-y "that wasn't supposed to happen" way and not a towny "yikes I'm being mislynched" way (it's hard to explain, but read the last few pages and you'll see it). Using angry and scathing AtE as a last-ditch effort (to scare people off his wagon maybe?) and personal insults (never acceptable btw).

[Something_Smart]

You don't think scum would get frustrated at L-1?

[Something_Smart]

Wow, 450 was good. But I still think Shinobi's scum.
The most remarkable thing about it is that he managed to control his flailing, which is harder as scum. But it's still possible, especially when even scum can be doing genuine scumhunting.
Just because he was able to control his flailing does not negate that he did it in the first place, and all of my reasons still apply. The whole part about how town is stupid and I am either scum or dense really seems more telling of alignment than any number of well-explained reads. Especially since he is townreading me now so I wonder if he even thought I was scum at one point, because he showed no sign of changing his mind between then and now.

[Something_Smart]

The shadow lynch feels like a compromise lynch.
Why lynch a lurker when you can lynch a scummy player, I wonder? I don't think you should let Shinobi's reads post fool you.
If you're just voting Shadow to encourage him to play, that's understandable, but it's too easy for scum to say "oh it's just pressure" but then "forget" about that and allow a hammer.
I'm much more comfortable wagoning Shinobi here.

[Something_Smart]

why did we stop this lynch?

oh well idc

Why did you push so much for a hammer then?

[Something_Smart]

I still don't see what is scummier about Shadow and I'm afraid there is nothing. You just want to lynch a somewhat-scummy lurker rather than a scummier active player, when lurking is not indicative of alignment. We can't expect the scum to do our job for us and kill the people we want dead.

[Something_Smart]

Can somebody present an actual case on Shadow instead of just saying "he's lurker scum"?

[Something_Smart]

We can do better, and rushing a lynch with 4 days left is scummy. We had the votes to lynch Shinobi.
If there is absolutely no way we can lynch Shinobi, I will be ok with a Shadow lynch. But I still think a Shinobi lynch is preferable and attainable.

[Something_Smart]

Who do you think is a better lynch then?

[Something_Smart]

People might listen to you more if you actually gave reasons for what you say.

[Something_Smart]

ika was that the hammer
Guess we'll see what happens.

[Something_Smart]

I don't believe so. Thanks for the reminder!

It's too late for a case on shadow...
VOTE: Shinobi
Still want to lynch this.

[Something_Smart]

Ika, we're not all graced by your incredible ability to sort silver. Could you explain yourself please?

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: ika

Yeah no. This is scum. I'm 90% sure.

This is buddying you?

[Something_Smart]

SO's Ika vote seems kinda lazy.
Ika/SW thing is a little weird. Not sure how to react to it.

575 was bad. Didn't expect a hammer? From ika? You put Shadow at L-1 anyway (which was also bad)!
And why are you so concerned with who has or hasn't mentioned whom? Feels like manufacturing reasons.
The whole Shadow wagon was bad. Viva's and SO's votes were the worst. I get the feeling that Viva and Shinobi are opposing scum, and SO could be partners with either. Plus this wagon is more likely to go somewhere than Shinobi's.
VOTE: Supreme Overlord

[Something_Smart]

1. Even if you weren't expecting a hammer, didn't you want one? You put him at L-1 and he had already claimed, so why would you vote him for doing something that you knowingly made possible?
2. A lot of people have not mentioned others and it doesn't mean that they can't form opinions on them. You are not entitled to whine about every accusation that you didn't see coming a mile away. In fact, setting up future lynches is something scum do, whereas town are more likely to have sudden changes of opinion.
3. However, this is a good point. I would like to see Snarky actually explain something he does for once.

[Something_Smart]

Ika why don't you vote SO with me?

[Something_Smart]

Ika: I read SW's ISO in that one and this one and tbh I'm not seeing the similarity. SO is a better vote.

[Something_Smart]

I would recommend stating intent to L-1 because ika may hammer.

[Something_Smart]

His reasoning feels weak and forced, his voting patterns are opportunistic (especially the Shadow vote), his whole "has/hasn't mentioned" thing pings me wrong, and his case on ika for hammering after he himself put Shadow at L-1 is hypocritical.

[Something_Smart]

He said it himself that he wanted Shadow hammered...
While he's voting ika for hammering...

[Something_Smart]

Looking solely at interactions between SW and SO and living players, this is where I stand as far as partners are concerned. This doesn't incorporate individual reads which I am still working on.
Aristophanes:

Likely

Possible

Firebringer:

Likely

Unlikely

Masquerade:

Possible

Likely

Shinobi:

Unlikely

Unlikely

SnarkySnowman:

Possible

Likely

Viva La Gloria:

Unlikely

Likely

[Something_Smart]

There's a lack of interaction between you and SO. You were also defending him.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Firebringer
Probably ice, not sure what Viva was thinking, interactions with SO are terrible.
I'd also probably be ok lynching masq or snarky.

@Mod: I will be away until Tuesday. I will probably have access but there's a chance I won't and so I'm declaring V/LA just in case.

[Something_Smart]

Hey, I'm here, my connection will be inconsistent for the next few days.
@Aristo: How many scum do you think were on Shadow's and SO's lynches?
@Viva: I kind of see what you mean, but after Fire replaced in he did scumread and interact with SW, whereas he soft defended SO and dropped it when his wagon became serious.
@Fire: why do you think it is snarky and masq?

[Something_Smart]

Everyone seems to be absent...

Hopefully this game picks back up after the weekend, because we are in good shape to bring this home!

Ugh this is awful.

[Something_Smart]

Your post... the game is nowhere near solved and stuff like that gives me the chills.

[Something_Smart]

Hi, I'm back.
Aristo and Viva are likely town. Both are honestly scumhunting and are not just hunting one scum, either.
Shinobi I still don't like but his interactions with SO and SW were very likely not scum-scum, so I do think he's town.
Snarky's near impossible to read, on purpose I think, so he very well could be scum. (Fire, given his stance on SO.)
Masq is mild town, as he is doing some real scumhunting, but I could see him being Fire, as he is only hunting Ice.
Firebringer is probably Ice, given his lack of good interaction with SO and his general defensiveness.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, defensiveness is a scum trait.
I feel like the Shinobi-SO interactions are probably not partners, because SO voted Shinobi pretty early on. I'll have to look again but I'm pretty sure scumbuddies wouldn't do this.
Fire, who are your scumreads?
Viva, do you really think Shinobi would be so obvious as to leave his buddy off his readlist? And then you think his buddy would point it out?

[Something_Smart]

Why are you rushing this we have 9 days.
How about you consolidate?

[Something_Smart]

Fire is Ice. (Lol.)
Let's see:
Droog did very little all of day 1. The only vote he placed was an "experiment" which he unvoted later without ever explaining. He only gave out a few reads and only took a strong stance on beeboy.

Aero also did little. He socialized with Silver and pulled out a scumread on Shinobi and Masq based on the first four pages.

Then Fire comes in. He is immediately defensive (612) and immediately starts defending SO (625). He doubtcasts my case on SO in 627 and 629, and tries to get somebody to unvote in 633 and 635. Then he argues with ika for a while, putting out a mild scumread on Silver. All this time he is barely mentioning SO and SO is barely mentioning him.

Silver is killed by the Ice. Fire "knew something was up" (664) and proceeds to be defensive (675) and salty (680) and even claims not to be fire (681). He contributes unsupported scumreads (683), claims not fire again (699), and still has not explained any of his reads.

So yeah, Aristo, that's where your vote should be. I don't have as clear an idea who the Fire is (thinking Snarky or Masq probably), but I'm pretty sure about this.

[Something_Smart]

Masq, who are you more sure on? Fire or Shinobi?
Do you think Aristo's case on you is fake? Do you think he is scum?

Pedit: I think Shinobi is not a good lynch today. He's definitely not Fire and he's probably not Ice, since Fire is a lot more likely to be Ice. (Lol I just can't get over this )

[Something_Smart]

@Shinobi: what would be more enlightening then? And why are you voting him?
@Viva: vote Fire then. The interactions seem fairly straightforward, we have 2 scum flips...

[Something_Smart]

Snarky, that is horrible. Your reasons don't follow logically from the thread, and your reads don't follow logically from your reasons. Your vote on Viva indicates that you have not read for content, only for associations, and they only tell part of the story.
Then, when Viva is incredulous, you change it to make him feel better.
It doesn't look like you can make good cases... why don't you sheep somebody else's (like mine). Go back and read Fire and SO and tell me how they could possibly not be buddies.

[Something_Smart]

Snarky, that is horrible. Your reasons don't follow logically from the thread, and your reads don't follow logically from your reasons. Your vote on Viva indicates that you have not read for content, only for associations, and they only tell part of the story.
Then, when Viva is incredulous, you change it to make him feel better.
It doesn't look like you can make good cases... why don't you sheep somebody else's (like mine). Go back and read Fire and SO and tell me how they could possibly not be buddies.

This sort of assumes that he's town.

Why?

I'm assuming that he would try to act like he's town. It doesn't particularly feel like a scumcase, just a bad one.

[Something_Smart]

Viva earlier you said the Snarky was likely Fire unlikely Ice. Do you still think that?

[Something_Smart]

I've lost a significant amount of faith in voting Aristo.
I'm feeling much better about this - both for SS's reasoning and for my own, earlier analysis on the slot's prior occupant.

It seems like the only faith you had in voting him was that he was using the fact that you were the only non-confirmed-town D1 wagon to push you... except he wasn't even voting you.
Did you ever have faith in him being scum? Iirc you voted him as pressure because you wanted him to explain his thoughts.

[Something_Smart]

You voted him because there was a nonzero chance he was scum?

[Something_Smart]

Shinobi what I mean is it doesn't seem like you ever actually scumread Aristo, but now you're saying you did. Which is true? Did you vote him for pressure or because you thought he was scum?

[Something_Smart]

What?

[Something_Smart]

I would be ok with this if a Fire lynch isn't possible.
Viva (I already knew you were RC), why are you townreading Fire?
Snarky, same question.
Viva, do you think Snarky is Ice or Fire? In my opinion, Snarky is likely Fire given the push on SO, and it feels like you're ignoring my case on Fire and only hunting one scumteam.

[Something_Smart]

Here are my thoughts.
Aristo- probably town. Feels genuine and honest in responses and scumhunting, and isn't focusing on one scumteam.
Firebringer- very likely Ice. He's done very little apart from being defensive and his interactions with SO are worse than nonexistent.
Masquerade- probably Fire. Hasn't done much actual scumhunting, and has jumped around a lot with their vote. By PoE this is likely Fire.
Shinobi- probably town just based on interactions. There's a chance that he's Ice but the interactions are a lot more favorable for him than for Firebringer.
SnarkySnowman- Gotta be doctor since any cc is suicide for scum.
Viva La Gloria- probably town. Doing a lot of honest hunting of both factions, and is not afraid to make enemies. Though he still hasn't unvoted Snarky for some reason.

In conclusion, I won't lynch anyone but Fire or Masq today. (Or maaaaaybe Shinobi.)

[Something_Smart]

I have no problem with Aristo voting scum.
I also have no problem with him scumreading you for your lack of interactions with and chainsaw defense of SO, although I don't think that's what it was.
I don't think you have it right why he is scumreading you.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Masquerade

GET HER!

Kill this with fire, which will be particularly effective in this case

[Something_Smart]

@Fire: do you actually have a case on Masq or is it pure survivalism?
@Masq: Do you think Fire is town? If so, why? If not, why not vote him? (sounds like an exam question )

[Something_Smart]

You seem to be dodging discussion of Firebringer. You said you'd discuss my case after Shinobi responded. He did, and you still haven't. I want you to take a stance, and if you think he's scum then hammer him.

[Something_Smart]

you need to read more thoroughly

[Something_Smart]

Snarky you think I'm Ice?

[Something_Smart]

By PoE if Masq isn't Fire then it almost has to be Viva. We should not let a potential Fire candidate hunt for Fire, we need to lynch scum today. There is solid evidence on Firebringer that there really isn't for anyone who could be Fire.
We should lynch Firebringer today. Then, possibly, I would be okay with Viva's plan.

Pedit: scum would rather lynch town and kill off scum, so it very well could be that Masq is not hammering because he/she is Fire and actually believes you are Ice.

[Something_Smart]

Bah I can't make my mind up on Firebringer. Starting to lean town on him again. I retract my intent to hammer for now. Will look into things again tonight when I get home.

This is probably Fire.
Scum want a town lynch because then they will only have to get one more mislynch. Masq has never expressed a reason for townreading Fire, so I'm assuming they plan to kill him tonight.
Town-Masq would hammer Fire here most likely.

[Something_Smart]

Viva, if I were Fire why would I be trying to lynch Ice, when it would then be 4:1, rather than trying to nightkill them, leading to 3:1? Compare my push on Firebringer to Masquerade, who appears to be scumreading him but won't admit it, because they don't want to lynch Ice, and tell me how Masq is town here.

[Something_Smart]

What did Aero do that makes him not make sense as Ice? I see why for Fire, but he literally never mentioned SO.

[Something_Smart]

Aero doesn't make sense as ice because his replace out was tactical? Not following why that makes him not Ice.
Plus, who makes more sense as Ice?

[Something_Smart]

@Masq: What has Fire said that was towny enough to make you townread him after he defended SO?
I'm assuming you think Aristo is Ice. Why? Do you think he bussed SO?

[Something_Smart]

Just noticed our timeline. We have intent, right?

Why am I being scum read btw?
I believe I've been fairly towny all game.

Masq retracted intent. Masq, if you don't hammer, you're almost confirmed Fire.

Aristo, I agree with you being towny and this feels like a town mindset. I think Masq is scumreading you to avoid lynching Firebringer.

[Something_Smart]

Or you could be nice and protown and hammer yourself

Pedit: No, I think Masq's Aristo scumread is phony.

[Something_Smart]

I'm insulted
You're not town so self-hammering is protown. Of course it's also against your wincon but whatever.

[Something_Smart]

Can we please lynch Smart? I'd rather no-lynch than lynch Firebringer I think.

I actually like Aristo and Smart for the remaining scum.

Why?

[Something_Smart]

Because if you're not lynched you'll be nightkilled, so you'll lose regardless?
...or did you want to invent a reason town!you would say that?

This is absolutely scum. Masquerade, please hammer.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Masquerade
Obviously a Firebringer lynch will never happen today, and I'm confident on this now too. I may not be available again before deadline, so:
Snarky- conftown.
Viva- probably town, Fire if Masquerade isn't. His "let's try to lynch Fire and lynch me if I'm wrong" does not make sense as any alignment.
Masquerade- probably Fire, as that's the best explanation for their as yet unexplained townread on Firebringer after I repeatedly asked them to hammer.
Aristo- just feels incredibly genuine and honest in his posts. Could possibly be Ice, given the weak late vote on SO, but unlikely.
Shinobi- also probably town, because his interactions with the scum mostly clear him and he seems to be reasonably attempting to figure things out.
Firebringer- Ice, and I have no idea why people are randomly townreading him when all his interactions with SO amount to saying "why are we lynching SO? He isn't really that scummy."

[Something_Smart]

Firebringer is Ice, Viva is Fire.
VOTE: Viva

[Something_Smart]

Fire is clearly between me and Viva.
We lynch Viva today. From my POV, he will flip scum. But from yours, if I were scum, I would definitely die tonight. I would of course take my best shot for the Ice (likely at Firebringer) but I would lose nonetheless.
My plan would lead to an auto loss for me if I were scum.

[Something_Smart]

I still think you/SW is more likely, but I could see Ari/SW (though Ari has felt town to me all game). Shinobi is absolutely not Fire and I seriously doubt that Firebringer is Fire.
A few questions:
What do you think of Ari's "Get a room!" in regards to SW and ika?
Do you think the Cobalting kill was an attempt to kill town or scum?

[Something_Smart]

Wait a minute.
Viva is reacting exactly how I would expect him to if he's Fire.
His only hope is to lynch out of the two of us and hope the Ice shoots me.

I would be much more comfortable lynching Viva today.

[Something_Smart]

Your logic makes sense, however, it also makes sense for scum, and I'm running around in circles trying to find one clear motivation in your posts.
I'm still leaning scum on you because your interactions with SW are the sketchiest, but I want to see a case on who you think is Fire.

@Ari, Shinobi, Fire: Who are your top Fire and Ice candidates?

[Something_Smart]

Yeah I'm going to have to do some rereading to see if the world where Viva is town makes any sense. I think Aristo is Fire in that world, so I'll see if that makes sense, too.

[Something_Smart]

I've reread all of day 1 so far, and I came across this which happened in twilight.

The shadow lynch feels like a compromise lynch.

Eh, screw it. I'm taking you out of my preferred lynch pool. Who needs to go in replacing you, I don't know, but I wouldn't feel comfortable lynching you. This is true. Shadow is, very much, a compromise lynch, guaranteed to hit town.

Whatever. I'll settle for a Shadow lynch.
VOTE: Shadow
I'm tired.

This is, by

far

, the worst vote in the entire game.

VOTE: Viva La Gloria.

Given that Aristo was a townread of Cobalting's all day and Viva was a scumread, I am confident atm in lynching Viva today. I will continue to read and post my full thoughts when I'm done.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not saying we should trust Ranger's reads (though she is a good player)
I'm saying scum-Ari would have kept her alive, whereas scum-you would have wanted to get rid of her.

[Something_Smart]

I reread Viva's ISO.

Spoiler: Viva

A Shinobi wagon is a place that you want to be.

Your vote will help you get there.

I have a bit of experience with RC and this feels like a thing scum-him would do. RC usually tries to act super confident in his reads as scum. That combined with how he has switched his read on Shinobi multiple times does not feel genuine.

I find it weird how Shinobi comes in with an RVS vote, followed by bashing everyone's RVS votes, followed by another RVS vote.
I can understand trying to get out of RVS early, but that wasn't what he was doing. But I think it would be unusual for scum to call attention to themselves that early.
I also find it weird how Viva meta'd Shinobi right away and spit back his profile information. I think this is more likely to be scum than Shinobi, seeing as it's an early push for a reason that seems NAI to me.

So you agree that Shinobi's entrance was weird.
You think that my making the effort to meta him to discover whether said opening is scummy though?
Plus, why would an early push for ANY reason be scummy? And how is Shinobi's hypocritical and bizarre calling people out for rvsing and asking for scumreads on the first page of the game not alignment indicative? That's bologna.

Again, overconfidence in a read 2 pages in.

Yeah, Masquerade's response was pretty awful.
But I'm still pretty damn sure Shinobi is scum.
You guys can be different scumteams mmk?

VOTE: Masquerade

This is just bad. For someone expressing a super strong read on Shinobi, he switches awfully quickly based just on one post. The "different scumteams" feels like an afterthought to dissuade accusations of inconsistency.

VOTE: Masquerade

Shinobi will be useful regardless of alignment I feel, and is highly likely to be crosskilled if he's scum.
I'd be seriously mad if he is left alive to LyLo but I still like this wagon and am good following it.

This is a scum mindset.

For everyone who missed my explanation of my scumread on Shinobi please reread here:

It's not the way he entered but how he dealt with the questions that he got about it. To me it seems more like he wanted to look useful with his questions, rather than reaction testing. Trying to look town by getting us out ofo RVS asap. When he got called out on that his responses were awkward imo.

Avoid being suspected by looking useful getting us out of RVS quickly. I'm saying Shinobi wanted to gain some towncred trying to launch us out of RVS. When he got questioned about them instead of backed up, he panicked and got awkward.

I sometimes choose my words a little poorly, but what I was saying is that by gaining towncred of getting us out of RVS he would have (most likely) avoided suspicion at least for this phase.

I still do agree and I think that you're probably town and Shinobi scum, but I feel like Shinobi can be left alive for a while because he's actively participating in scumhunting.
My opinion is that correct play in multiball is to go for the players who are both likely to be scum and unlikely to be cross killed; Shinobi doesn't exactly fit what I'm looking for in a day 1 lynch.
I think Cobalting needs to be forced to explain their reads lists right now.

Also a scum mindset. And the switch on Masquerade is questionable.

Please can we do like SO or Cobalting?
I'm willing to vote either of them over Shinobi today.
I'm getting really bad feelings about this wagon and think that Shinobi's probably town now.
His frustration seems genuine, the way he reacted to me pressuring him felt really genuine, he never tried to omgus me when I looked like a doable lynch and I was deathtunneling him at the beginning of the day.
Please reconsider your votes.

After all that tunneling, RC switches his read because Shinobi felt "genuine". This again feels like him being super confident to appear town.

Whatever. I'll settle for a Shadow lynch.

VOTE: Shadow

I'm tired.

This needs no words.

@Ika
I'm not sure. I just think it's weird.
SO is an obvious scumfuck and the Cobalting kill proves it so bye.

I guess it was too tempting to blame your own kill on another player. In fact the Cobalting kill points more to the people who were scumreading them than the ones they were scumreading... like Viva.

Like the associatives between SO and Shinobi are perfect for scumpartners but I really can't shake the feeling I've had all game that he's town.

Let's just lynch for Fire and I'll let the night actions handle him.

We can't trust the scum to kill the people we want. The only ones who can are scum.

So the Silverwolf kill was likely a deliberate attempt to cross kill, since she didn't have any clear scumreads besides Shinobi / Fire, which means that last Ice is probably someone who was scumreading her.
(And Shinobi/Fire fit in that category as well.)
I'm going to go through some ISOs.

So much discussing of night kills... probably means he was thinking about them a lot.

Alright.
So I think that it's pretty obvious that the Fire kill N2 was made to protect Silverwolf.
Cobalting is a little iffier to pinpoint because none of Ranger's scumreads were Fire scum and the only one that was correct was SO who was ice.
So we don't really get anything from NKA.

Aristophanes:
likely ice, extremely unlikely fire:
I think that Aristophanes is one of my top scum picks for Ice here and I'm questioning why a lot of people are townreading him. I absolutely hate the way he conducted himself day 1; I feel like in particular he's been doing way too much IIOA and way too little scumhunting. He spent an entire post picking apart why me 'vote jumping' was scummy and bad instead of actually scumhunting. His reads, especially on me, have basically followed crowd mentality; he was townreading me in the early day, moved to scumreading me when the pack did, and then started townreading me again when everyone else did again. I really don't think that he's fire though; when the SO wagon was getting steam he tried to derail it and said that we should be dealing with the Ika/SW situation instead. That just seems ridiculously unlikely to come from Fire scum given that Ika was virtually unlynchable and fairly universally townread. He makes a lot more sense as Ice; he did L-1 SO but the wagon was inevitable at that point and I could easily see him as a bussing scumbuddy who felt that he couldn't stop it.

Shinobi:
Possible ice, extremely unlikely fire:
So he was one of my big scumreads early because of his . I think he's fairly clearly not partnered with SW given that SW spent half the game trying to lynch him, and I don't think that a bus would be particularly likely to that extent in a multiball setup. He could absolutely be Ice;

SnarkySnowman:
Possible ice, very likely fire:

Masquerade:
Fairly likely ice, fairly likely fire:

Firebringer:
Unlikely ice, unlikely fire:

Something_Smart:

Oh shut the fuck up cancel all this.

VOTE: Shinobi

TheShadow: Scum - doesn't show up when his top lynch is at L-1. His top scumread is one that is completely unexplained. Obvious scum, should be lynched ASAP. Calling him a lurker and letting him slide is just bad.

Cobalt: Also scum - doesn't explain their reads under any circumstances, instead relying on generic lines like "they sound worse with every post - they look like scum scumhunting, not town scumhunting," without having any way to back up their statements. Relied on calling my slot a "policy lynch" without explaining why. It's bullshit but apparently everyone is okay with that because lolmeta.

Aeronaut: My third pick for scum - has been on site and posting elsewhere in yet doesn't care enough to show up despite the fact that the day is at an end and he isn't nearly caught up enough to make an informed decision. His only catchup post was centered on smearing scum on obvious things like people responding to questions and centering his scumreads on them being scum rather than the reasoning as to why they actually are. I think I confused him with beeboy earlier but I don't know what that says about beeboy.

Beeboy: null - has been posting but I can't really remember them having much impact on anything. He just sorta jumped on my bandwagon at the last second for...Reacting to something? His logic didn't really hold up since

Ika: town and someone I hope I never play with again. iirc he tends to be kind of spacey in regards to early game and tends to just hammer people whenever regardless of his alignment. It's annoying having him show up to play with me just so he can muck about and do nothing while I get lynched.

Silverwolf: null - I have no idea where to start here. I flip my read on her every 10 minutes. I'm fully aware my bias against people who tunnel me could be coloring my read but I genuinely have no idea.

Masq: probably town - I hated his early jump and am genuinely angry about it, but at least he's giving me some time to do stuff before he inevitably hammers me for what the fuck ever.

Something_Smart: possibly town? He's irrational and impossible to deal with but I can sort of see his posts coming from town, despite how misguided he is.

Aristo: possibly town? He said a bunch of stuff I liked earlier but he's nowhere to be found. I feel like he should be more interested than he is but it's plausible that he's just mia.

SnarkySnowman: probably town - I don't see a reason for scum to stick up for me here? But I'd really like to see his reasoning on why he likes me enough to start being vocal about disliking my wagon considering it's the only thing that defines him in this game thus far.

VLG: probably town - I thought his earlier push was hard to mimic for scum considering how much force he put behind it. Again, I see little reason for scum to call attention to themselves by proposing a variety of lynches and then trying to back me at EoD.

This is ice. The ONLY person he forgot on his reads list was the other Ice dude.

Explaining the Fire kill. And switching his read on Shinobi again, for a questionable reason.

I feel like I never want to play multiball again.

Trying to keep track of two factions is killing me.

It hasn't been all that hard for me. Seems like it would be a lot harder if you were part of one of them.

Your reads are fake as shit, your push on me is awful, you had to retract your entire readslist when I called you out on it, and there's no visible thought process that leads to your asinine conclusions.

If you're not scum then you're a fairly awful player.

Ad hominem is bad, and scum tend to attack players but say "if you're town" a lot.

Well, maybe wait and see what others say. Tell me why you're not scum, other than because I'm "a fairly awful player".

I'm not getting lynched. You might though!
You've given no reasons to scumread me and the people who are actually scumhunting are fairly universally townreading me.
No one thinks that I'm likely to be Ice in particular, and thinking that I'm more likely to be Ice than, say, Aristo makes absolutely no sense.
I don't even have a case to answer to try to get us on the same page because you frankly haven't made a case. You just declared me scum with no reasoning.
Like I'm pretty fine lynching you at this point. If you're town then you me an asston of explanation.

Again, the annoying overconfidence.

Alright so fire is definitely one of

{S_S, Masq} but more likely S_S.

Ice is

{Aristo, Masq, maybe Shin}

The way S_S assumed that SS was town when he said scummy shit strikes me as scum knowing that he wasn't fire and trying to lynch the other faction here (ice) which makes me think that he's scum over Masq, plus the fact that he's just been generally scummier in general and the fact that Masq legitimately does not discuss SW at any point seems unlikely from scumpartners because I'd think they'd at least -try- to distance at some point, so the minimal contact between S_S and SW is more likely to be scum.

Aristo is still my biggest pick for ice for the reasons I've already explained but Masq also makes a ton of sense as ice.

This is really what makes me dislike Viva's play today. He would have no reason to reconsider his read on me (indeed I would be his only candidate), except that it is suicide for him because he is scum.
Also, switching on Shinobi again.

So yeah, I'm ok lynching Viva today.
I will also reread Fire's slot at some point, but I think we should lynch him tomorrow unconditionally.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: SS

We're doing this 1v1 today actually, but not for the reasons you guys will think.
I think that SS is actually Ice and not Fire. Aristophanes is the fire.
But, I don't think that I can muster the votes to lynch after today.
So, we're lynching him today.

I might be wrong and he might just be fire and this whole thing could be a waste of time, but this is where my head's at right now.

This is... what even? Your saying I hard bussed my partner in multiball and Cobalting was killed by two people whom they were townreading and who were townreading them.
I'm totally okay with this 1v1. You've realized that it's suicidal not to enter it but you've already called me not Fire so you need to come up with any ridiculous reason to call me scum.

The other good option is that we can NL.
Hopefully at least one scum will follow my reads and a flip will help us with the next lynch.
It's better than the alternative at this point I think.

And this is incredibly scum motivated. I already mentioned in my analysis that directing the nightkill is scum indicative, because the only scum who will follow your reads is you.

[Something_Smart]

My read on Aristo is partly PoE, partly gut, but after reading him it is weaker than I thought. His play seems very similar to in this game, where he was town and was scumread by half the players and considered obvtown by the other half. Most of the gut read is due to his efforts to advance the game and discover motivation, specifically his lack of interest in being townread.
Viva is almost definitely Fire after 1042 and 1043 (and the Cobalting kill makes absolutely no sense for a SW/Aristo team), but there is a possibility Aristo is Ice. Still leaning toward Fire on being Ice, due to his awful interactions with SO.

Spoiler: Aristo

Viva, why are you townreading Something Smart?
Cobalt ing, why are you scum reading them?

Trying to advance the game, figure out motivation.

It sounds like masquerade's giant post follows the sort of thing you're talking about in yet you haven't commented on it. Why?

I don't know if you mean you on masquerade or masquerade on you.

For you on masquerade, I wouldn't call 2 votes and an opinion tunneling and making it easy on scum to fit in.

For masquerade on you, I don't see people voting you a problem the statement that you are trying to hard to look town is bad in the sense that there is no evidence to back that up which doesn't indicate scum just a lazy claim unless Masq can't follow up with evidence to support that claim. There is a difference between stealing ideas to fit in and having your own opinion on someone currently being pressured.

Beeboy/Masq scumteam? Cool!

VOTE: Beeboy

Viva, will you quit it with the vote jumping!
I already don't care where it lands because it has no weight.
You know how if you say a word too many times it starts to lose meaning? Yeah, that's what's happening with your vote.

I had a feeling Chevy Cobalt was Ford Ranger.
Unexplained lists =/= scum in this case.

A slip up is a screw up or a blunder or a misplay; I think Shinobi misplayed on page 1 because he felt pressured as scum to try to look like he was scumhunting hard.
A slip is revealing some sort of secret that confirms alignment.

Shinobi did the former, not the latter.

Slip = Scum revealing info accidentally/revealing themselves as scum.
Slip-up = any general mistake, misfooting, or bad play.
@Something Smart, not a hard concept.
It feeld like you're discrediting Viva right now. Why is that?
A slip is a slip-up, but a slip-up isn't a slip.

Yeah, I don't like Beeboy at all.

@Beeboy,
Is bullheadedness exclusively a scum trait?
Can town not be wrong yet insist they are right, or misunderstand a point and argue it fruitlessly?

This is scumhunting and trying to advance the game as well.

I need to reread droog as well - I don't like that Aero post.

Really?
I liked it...

Also, Aero, I am awkward a lot.
Just sayin'

I like this. It's basically saying, "This is what I do and I don't care if you think it's scummy."

I'll read SO's ISO, Viva, and get back to you. I haven't really interacted with the slot much.

This in particular seems really bold for someone to say about his partner. Given that he's almost certainly not Fire, this makes me think he is town.

I know we have 10 days and I want to give Fire time to catch up, but I totally agree with this lynch on a reread.

All of their questions seem to be at the game rather than in the game. Which is weird I know, my explanations suck.

Aaand I got called in to work while typing. Basically, they feel off and unengaged and are probably scum.

VOTE: SO

This is L-1

This could be a bus. Of all the SO votes, this felt most like one at the time. But bussing in this setup seems pretty stupid, and I wonder if Aristo would have been this awkward if he were bussing (he probably would have put more effort into the post).

That's okay. They're probably the last Fire goon anyway.

Why do you think SS is fire goon anyways?

Looking again at the VCA (which I'll take some time and transcribe onto the forum soon. It's in a word document atm.) I noticed they avoided early major wagons, instead staying on Viva. That is, until they found L-1 on the Shinobi wagon. They then stayed there until the day ended, despite the wagon's crumbling. Her votes here are contrary to Silver for the most part.

D2 she follows SW onto So and stays there for the day.

Their ISO is almost devoid of any mentions of SW as well.

All of their votes are without much reasoning, and the insistence on voting Shinobi shows they weren't thinking critically, but sticking with their previous scum read. This stagnation happens because of faked scumreads and a fear of looking inconsistent.

This is good motivation searching. It's wrong, of course, but it's good that he pointed it out.

Just noticed our timeline. We have intent, right?

Why am I being scum read btw?
I believe I've been fairly towny all game.

This may be just me, but I have to keep myself from saying things like this as town a lot. I get the feeling of "where on earth is that scumread on me coming from?" that's hard for scum to fake.

So, my reads are here:
Viva- Fire
Fire- probably Ice
Aristo- probably town, possibly Ice
Shinobi- likely town, maaaaybe Ice

[Something_Smart]

From your POV, Fire is in {S_S, Viva} and Ice is in {Fire, Aristo}, right?
So the town will have to decide between each at some point. Even if Firebringer is lynched today, you or Ari will have to choose between me and Viva tomorrow and I'm far less confident in that going well. So vote Viva today, and Fire tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

I will vote Aristo on the condition that if I'm not alive in endgame everyone speedvotes SS.

I'm positive that SS is ice mafia.

Shinobi, we need to lynch this today. I do think it's wise to sort Fire/Ari before we lynch, but Viva is definitely scum. Besides playing exactly like scum would (i.e. saying blatantly antitown things like this), he's playing to his scum meta and he's flailing.

I really need to see more from Fire and Ari today before I can effectively sort them, however.

[Something_Smart]

I will vote Aristo on the condition that if I'm not alive in endgame everyone speedvotes SS.

I'm positive that SS is ice mafia.

Shinobi, we need to lynch this today. I do think it's wise to sort Fire/Ari before we lynch, but Viva is definitely scum. Besides playing exactly like scum would (i.e. saying blatantly antitown things like this), he's playing to his scum meta and he's flailing.

I really need to see more from Fire and Ari today before I can effectively sort them, however.

I don't really see how that can be construed as antitown.

How exactly is he playing to his scum meta? Forgive me if I missed it.

Suggesting speedlynching in LYLO is antitown.

RC's scum meta is to pick arbitrary reads and be super confident on them. You can see it best in Open 623, where he whiteknighted the crap out of me and then tunneled Titus to death. His play regarding you here reminds me of that, as although he's flipped multiple times on you he's always seemed super confident, way more that he should be.

No lynching does not feel like the correct option here. The odds that the scum kill each other are fairly low, and besides that the best case is just 3p LYLO which we could reach almost guaranteed by lynching Viva, except we have less control over who is in it. If both scum shoot town, the best play for them is probably to lynch the townie and get a draw.

Fire, what are your reads?

[Something_Smart]

Shinobi, what is your read on Viva? Who is your top Fire candidate?

[Something_Smart]

If I were the other scum I'd be putting in a lot more scumhunting effort as I'd be worried about looking towny.

But okay.

Okay, reads then.

I think you are frustrated town.
I don't scumread Viva.

So I think Scum is in SS and FB.

Therefore,
VOTE: SS

Yeah I am not voting, especially when everyone thinks I am a scum. lol. Shows me they are either scum or just wrong so following them. Not the best idea.

[Something_Smart]

If I were the other scum I'd be putting in a lot more scumhunting effort as I'd be worried about looking towny.

But okay.

Okay, reads then.

I think you are frustrated town.
I don't scumread Viva.

So I think Scum is in SS and FB.

Therefore,
VOTE: SS

Yeah I am not voting, especially when everyone thinks I am a scum. lol. Shows me they are either scum or just wrong so following them. Not the best idea.

Oops. Accidentally hit submit instead of reply

Ari is feeling more and more like apathetic scum who can't bring anything new to the discussion. But so is Firebringer... in particular this post. You must have some reads, why don't you vote on them?
I'm not following Ari's reads progression either. What makes Viva town? What do you think of my case?

[Something_Smart]

If you really want a no lynch then vote no lynch.
But I've already said that a no lynch is a bad idea for town.

[Something_Smart]

This game isn't about odds, it's about scumhunting. We should be lynching Viva today.

The thing about no lynch that troubles me is that we have no control over who lives to the final 3. I am confident that the scum are Viva and probably Firebringer (and maybe Aristo), but that doesn't mean that the scum will agree with my reads enough to shoot correctly.

The thing that pings me about the case for no lynching is that if two town get shot then town loses. So to be confident in a no lynch, you have to be confident that at least one scum will shoot your scumreads, and only scum can be sure of that.

@Firebringer, Aristo, Shinobi: what is your read on Viva? Could you give some quotes or reasons to explain it?

[Something_Smart]

V/LA through Sunday

Sorry! I'll be back in time for deadline, I promise.

[Something_Smart]

I'm back. I didn't miss much, I see

No, vote No Lynch or you are claiming scum.

Lol the scare tactic is real. But it's ok because he already claimed scum.

I'd NL if I thought scum would shoot properly. I expect both scum to shoot town.

This is bad. There's no particular reason to believe it, and I think it's in response to my comment that it's scummy to assume that the scum will shoot who you want them to.

Ugh.

I'll hammer a NL if it comes to it with my reads list.

You'll hammer NL at deadline to avoid a... oh wait. So what is the point of this if not trying to appease Firebringer?

You're probably just scum gloating about how he doesn't have to do anything to win.

This.

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart ran into the cave, breathless. He could practically hear the Fire Goon behind him. Furiously, he began to whip up a freezing wind that would neutralize the fire. The wind and snow whipped around his head, clouding his vision. Just as he thought he saw a dark figure at the entrance, he released the winds upon the intruder. But it was only a shadow, a figment of his imagination. The winds whipped around the cave and reflected, encircling him, and he realized he had made a grave error. He could feel the cold seeping into his body, and although he struggled, he knew there was nothing he could do.

How ironic,

he thought,

that I should go like this, after all the freezing pain I inflicted on others.

The howling winds echoed around the caves, but he was silent. Suddenly a strange peace seized him, and he became relaxed.

"I regret it! I regret it all!", he cried. "I'm sorry, beeboy. I'm sorry, SilverWolf. I'm sorry, Masquerade." He could feel the cold freezing his heart and slowing his pulse to a crawl. "I'm sorry..." he whispered before finally going still, a frozen statue for all of eternity.

Something_Smart, Ice Mafia Goon, froze himself and and ruined his perfect scum record Night 4.