Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[LlamaFluff]

Vote GIF

His response to Equinox putting him in the group that has played with CES and calling him scum was to question him being in there. Not trying to actually question the validity of it but concerned with being a part of it.

Would also vote UT

[LlamaFluff]

Question validity... of what?

It seems odd to me that you acknowledge the existence of a list of players Equinox listed as having played with CES before by acting surprised that you were a part of it, and then ignored any merits or lack thereof. I could understand just ignoring it, but you indirectly mention it.

Also why UT

"Reaction testing" is a cop out to allow yourself to get away with scummy stuff.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama forgoes analysis of UT's posting or a vote for UT for a glib sentence about being willing to vote him. This is strange since UT has a lot more content to analyze and already has a vote on him. If you really did think UT was scum, that seems like it would be the logical place to start.

So I should vote the player that posted more because they have posted more? The part of what Equinox posted that GIF latched onto makes more sense to make scum feel uneasy than it makes for town to feel uneasy, especially when you pair it that he basically ignored the post otherwise. UT has no real posts that read as scum or town except for trying to leave me at L-1 and immediately shift blame if I was hammered. I don't really care at all about him calling a couple of people town, its not alignment indicative at all.

UT I would vote because he should know better than to do what he did, but a lot of people just like to do reckless things because they apparently find doing reckless things fun or something like that. If it was someone that is super conservative as a player and takes little to no risks, I would have jumped on it hard. UT is more of a "does whatever" type who will just do scummy things that they think is justified or thinks aren't scummy when a majority of the players will think it is. I do think he is more likely scum than just about anyone else because of it, but at the same time GIF is scummier.

[LlamaFluff]

If UT is a "does whatever" player that tends to go against the grain, why would him putting you at L-1 be scummy?

Because its at best a dumb move. I think all of us who have been around long enough have seen a player get hammered because someone wasn't paying attention to what the votecount was. Yeah he isn't a textbook player, but even then he should know its not a smart move to make so I am calling it scummy even though I could see him think that whatever he did there was good to "get reactions" or whatever he tried to justify his play as.

[LlamaFluff]

talk down at me much? I don't have to justify jack

When you are doing something you absolutely should know better than to do if you are town: yes

You are a better player than to put someone at L-1 on the second page of a game and act like you did, so you bet I am going to call you out on doing something stupid. The more you setup the possibility for someone else to screw stuff up the more likely it might happen, and when you setup the blame to be placed on someone else before it even happens and try and chalk it up to "reaction testing", that makes you a good scum pick instead of just aloof town as well.

[LlamaFluff]

- "gif town would be smart enough to not show his surprise and ignore so he avoids useless suspicion but gif scum would be dumb enough to not do the same"- "UT town would be smart enough to not lolvote someone to L-1 but UT scum would be dumb enough to do so."

Both not quite

I think if you were town, your reaction would be a "why are you coming to this conclusion" as opposed to "why am I in this list" or at least a mix of the two
For UT I think he could have done it as either alignment, but willfully null to scum play is more likely to come from scum although it does somewhat often come from reckless town.

That's my reaction more than scum is dumb... its scum is more likely to be willfully ignorant/make suboptimal play that benefits scum if they think they can get away with it

[LlamaFluff]

@UT - So I am supposed to add "and I am town" to every post from now on? If you really want me to I will say "he put me at L-1 and tried to immediately pawn off anyone accidently hammering on them and I am town so that is scummy" each time I talk about it. Heck for that matter why don't I just call you scum because you automatically assumed that anyone who hammered me when you put me at L-1 the first time would be scum. That makes the solid assumption that I am town from your point.

Yes. INTENTIONALLY suboptimal play is scum play. Period. Town will not do things on purpose that actually hurt their chances on winning, and that is absolutely what you are doing. You either did something as town that I know you are smarter than to do, or you are scum. Like if a newbie did it, not as much of an issue because you have to assume they don't know better. You doing it, issue.

Are you saying you'll let people get away with scummy shit because of their past? Are you saying you're OK with his recklessness because it's a thing with him? That you're fine with him potentially fucking things up for the town because it's how he rolls?

I am saying that there are people on this site who will make bad moves on purpose because they don't know any better or because they prefer to play loose feeling it helps keep people off balance and every one in a while it completely nukes the town if they are town. Normally these are the types of players I also don't mind lynching because they are borderline liabilities. I know UT is more of a loose player but not as much of a liability to be playing as he is, so I think its a good chance he is scum.

Vote UT

Putting me at L-1 and immediately trying to pawn off any accidental hammer on others (and I am town) which shows him willfully playing suboptimal as he knows better than that
The fact that he tried to shift blame makes the assumption that I would flip town as only blame would occur if I flipped town
Him oversimplifying my saying he is playing suboptimal in order to not respond to the points I am making
Requesting hammer without a claim
Requesting a hammer with two votes on the wagon being RVS votes and one other not have posted any content
He is calling people scum for unvoting to wait to hear more content from aforementioned people

[LlamaFluff]

Heck for that matter why don't I just call you scum because you automatically assumed that anyone who hammered me when you put me at L-1 the first time would be scum

hey, wiseguy, I wasn't expecting anyone to hammer you. pack that shit up it's fucking stupid and useless.

But if it did, you made the assumption I was town. Like I already covered, people do get hammered accidently at times, and you enabled it and even came to a conclusion of how you would react to it that included what you expected my alignment to be.

what really seals the deal for me is that he didn't start pushing on me until after he waited to see if he could get some other people willing to run with it first

if it was a real read it wouldn't have been a throwaway "oh I guess I could vote him too" initially

this some classic scum OMGUS right here

Or its that GIF backing off both wagons was something that I liked a bit and then you started asking for a hammer with a quarter of the game not posting content and a third of my votes being RVS votes made you more scum than him.

[LlamaFluff]

hey yo llama before we keep arguing, can we go out of character for a second:

am I being too abrasive or whatever? I'm not trying to be a dick, so if you want me to tone it back I will

No. If someone crosses that line it becomes very obvious from my immediate reaction to the post.

what's the end game, exactly, as scum, if that was my strategy?

Creates general unease in the game and in the offchance that town does something really dumb you basically have a night start with a complete wash for day one play to boot. I guess the counter to that argument is if town what was your real strategy there? It doesn't make much sense for either alignment to pull, but if you look at possible results it more benefits scum.

Also I absolutely could see scum be that cheeky if they think they can get away with it.

Again though, why were you pushing for a hammer with a third of the wagon being RVS votes and quarter of the game not having posted any content? Pushing to a lynch quickly is something that at least from what I have done is almost always a scum move when a situation emerges where the more time town has to think the better they will likely end up.

[LlamaFluff]

So your read on me is such that you want a lynch with easily a quarter of the game (closer to half) having contributed absolutely nothing?

[LlamaFluff]

What I don't like about LF's play is he seems more concerned with saving his skin and making a counter-wagon than figuring out the game. He responds to attacks but he doesn't ask many questions or comment on any other happenings.

What point would that be? The point that I voted someone who had no votes when I was at L-1 or the point where after the player made responses I moved to a player who had become more scummy and had already made it clear was a suspect before that?

You even say here that UT you can see someone seeing as scum, and then you immediately say that I am scum because I vote him (at least I think that is what you are trying to say). So you basically have lined up your read on me that apparently anyone who I vote that is not a consensus town read for the rest of the game is me trying to make a counter wagon

@onion - Do you want me to just repost what I said on UT and GIF before? Points are still pretty much the same on the two of them. I could literally quote the posts if you want me to because the reasoning hasn't changed

onion is also town for 181 unless something major changes in what I think is going on.

[LlamaFluff]

no llama, i want you to write a paragraph or two rephrasing what you think.

I disliked the reaction from GIF. My reaction was more of a "so what" one to myself when I saw that list. I could see scum interpreting it as more of an attack, and taking more of a "why" reaction as GIF did. That and actually bringing up the list without questioning its validity give the feeling that he is more concerned with being on the list than if the list has any merits or not.

UT is taking intentional and unnecessary risks that he should know better than to do as town. There is applying pressure and there is setting town up to take a major hit if someone is not paying attention in the first few pages. Then there was the asking to hammer (seemingly serious) when most of the game and wagon were RVS votes or had no content attached, which as he said himself "you can never be that sure about things D1" which while ironically not true in a night start game, goes against him trying to end the day. Something he still never responded about.

Little short on time right now, will be until late Sunday. Able to read but not give time I need to make decent sized posts.

[LlamaFluff]

so what you are saying is that you placed your vote on GIF in 047 entirely because of him doubting Equinox's List in 018? If that's the case, why were you also ready to vote for Tripod. What suspicions of him did you hold at the time?

Yes that is why I voted GIF. Also I literally just said why I was calling UT scum last time I posted. That still is true.

And then Tripod's antics happened and you voted for him in 100. Did you stop scumreading GIF? If so, what made you think he wasn't scum anymore? You explained plenty about why Tripod is scummy, but what about GIF? please don't avoid the question.

GIF I still have a scumread on. Its not like I can really add much to that since he hasn't been posting content. Still have a hard time believing town only reacts in a "I played with him?" statement than anything else. Again I really just said why he is scum. If you don't accept that fine, but don't keep asking it again and again.

Also, you've kept that vote on Tripod ever since. Do you still think he's scum? Or are you just backing the counterwagon to yours? what are your current thoughts about GIF?

Yes. What counter wagon? I could move my vote to three other people and they would have the same number of votes as UT has now. You are using the same poor argument prawn is using where you set it up to no matter who I vote I am apparently voting in self-preservation because its not the only vote for the player. GIF is still a good scum bet.

look post links! they aren't so bad once i got the hang of em.

Quickest way to make me skim a post at least... seriously just quote it so we don't have to keep opening tabs to actually read what you are referencing.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama, the question was what suspicions did you have of him AT THE TIME. i know Tripod is scummy as fuck now, but mind you that you indicated your willingness to vote for Tripod in 047, BEFORE most of his anti-town shenanigans. What were your reasons at the time?

Again.

Because he put me at L-1 on page two, before I had even posted. When you have been around as long as I have and he has you know people at times will just vote in RVS without reading anything or paying attention to the vote count. Its inviting a mistake that is going to set town way back.

"you can never be that sure about things D1" which while ironically not true in a night start game

oh really

tell me about all those associated reads we have re: CES

I'll wait

We had a N0. Some roles could have acted. Not talking about NK speculation.

[LlamaFluff]

Anyone else realize that onion is basically basing his vote on the fact that he thinks that if I was scum it would mean UT is probably town and if I am town is a small tell against UT (which is something I could say for about half a dozen pairs). Also (maybe?) him not understanding my votes - note this isn't not liking reasoning but its not understanding which as far as I can tell he is the only player who actually doesn't understand it. Times like this is where its nice that he basically made posts that are basically town slips.

Vote Prawn

Again. You basically made statements that no matter who I was voting I was scum because it would be a "preservation vote" unless I was voting a player with no votes. The reaction of actually being concerned about how you are being read meta wise concerns me as if you are town, there would really be no concern about what you are doing.

[LlamaFluff]

I've played with Marquis recently.

His lack of play is not alignment indicative, but if he doesn't improve or replace out, he's a fine lynch.

So you actually haven't said anything remotely game related in over a week at this point, unless you want to say "hey POE OB and Marquis might be scum" as something substantial. Sorta ignored what I asked you, what I called you scum for, what happened to your onion/onion bulb policy lynch... you know... things related to the game.

Prawn wagon needs to happen, quite a bit more likely than Marquis. Both players are lurking in their own way (prawn barely posting, Marquis posting more) but are not posting content. Yet prawn gets no votes? If one of Marquis/Prawn are scum its probably Prawn right just on the merits on him somehow getting away with being able to lurk this one out while people are interested in Marquis.

[LlamaFluff]

Can we PLEASE lynch prawn?

He literally just responded to my push on him saying its OMGUS while basically ignoring everything else. Also that he is now apparently saying I am "more concerned about making a counter wagon" does not mean "self-preservation". His whole point there just made a huge left turn when he got called on it. He went from A and B to when I called out one of his points not actually being a point "Just B - you are scum for thinking I also said A"

This guy is doing NOTHING and yet no one pays attention to him. When he does decide to actually do something, its scummy. Dismissing a case as OMGUS, changing reasoning behind votes afterwards, lurking, the whole onion thing which immediately changed to "reaction testing" when called on it. He needs to be dead here. The last thing game related thing he has said is "Marquis lurking is not indicative of alignment - I would lynch them for it". I mean, that's literally saying "I would lynch this player over something that my own meta says is a null tell" while having avoided raising a case on anyone for over a week.

[LlamaFluff]

why not marquis?

Because all anyone has on them is that they are lurking. Also don't think with any other wagon struggling to find traction with a week until deadline scum will just lurk their way to a VT claim and continue to just bugger off. Feels more like town who just doesn't care, think scum would at least have come in with a "hey I will do something" and actually do it or at least a fakeclaim to try and get a wagon off of them.

Basically doing a little and it always being scummy is more likely scum than constantly saying they are going to catch up. For that matter why is posting about once a day saying you are going to catch up more of a tell than posting once every three or four days with nothing game related? If Marquis was going to strategically lurk as scum wouldn't they actually lurk instead of constantly reminding the entire game they are lurking?

[LlamaFluff]

I would also appreciate it if just for a bit someone took Marquis off L-1 before Prawn just hammers him out of fear of getting lynched himself.

[LlamaFluff]

Prawn again contributing nothing everyone.

For a second time he is massively backpedaling (this time on Marquis being a good lynch) when called on it though. Really should be lynched here. Seriously, he went from "they are a good lynch if they don't post" to "they are probably town" when all that happened in between is they made a whole bunch of null posts (which is why Marquis was a good vote to him) and I called him out of bad logic. Im guessing this was another "reaction test" though like the onion thing. You know where he does something really scummy then immediately says it was a reaction test as an excuse.

[LlamaFluff]

think scum would at least have come in with a "hey I will do something" and actually do it or at least a fakeclaim to try and get a wagon off of them.

Right, what's this based on?

Patterns of behavior over time. Disinterest is more of a town thing than a scum thing. Especially disinterest with no other wagons and then claiming VT, even putting aside VT claim theory.

[LlamaFluff]

When did you call me out on bad logic? In post 303? I responded to that in 340. Is that the first backpedal?

Where you said that we should lynch one of the onion players (then called it a reaction test immediately after people called you scum for it) and then saying Marquis is null but a good lynch that leads to...

As for the 2nd backpedal, I'm not allowed to change my read from null to town for Marquis? He made a post of substance, he's talking about the game. Do scum regularly buddy with unpopular posters?

Apparently him catching up through page three (of almost a 20 page game) and calling you null-town and then not posting anything else really for 48 hours is big town tell to you?

So yes. Two things you did that were scummy, each time you immediately back off on it when called. Onion thing turns into a "reaction test" and Marquis apparently voting almost the minimum amount of content possible is enough to move him from a "good lynch" to "town" which coincidently coincides with people saying that was a very scummy stance.

[LlamaFluff]

Llamafluff is scum TL;DR: he's not trying to figure out the game, he's just trying to push wagons with whatever bad logic he can muster.

Is this why you have the second most votes in the game with a few others actively calling you scummy?

Notice how Prawn immediately dismissed (again) my push on him by saying that only I saw things as scummy. Which apart from being a blatant lie (Equinox voted him for similar things, UT appears to have as well, CDB, onion and OB have been calling him scum for the same things) is just a way of actually again dismissing my attacks without really answering them.

Like how he apparently thinks that Marquis catching up through page three and saying he is kinda town is a strong town tell for Marquis, immediately after saying that him lurking was something to lynch him for. Not really going to buy that someone catching up through not even 20% of the game and giving no substantial reads is a town tell, sure you can get a "strong townread" off a player for a post, but even the reason contradicts what he is dismissing my attacks over.

Basically look at it this way: Prawn says I was the only one calling him scum for a couple of posts so that apparently invalidates me calling him scum. Then he says Marquis calling him town is a towntell (after being called out on intent to hammer Marquis on bad reasoning) because he is an unpopular player. Those two things don't add up, unless he thinks that me calling him scum (remember - according to him no one agrees with me) makes him super unpopular or something like that.

[LlamaFluff]

Do you think a townie came to the conclusion LF did?

You are using the exact same reason to call me scum that I used to call GIF scum. So either you are scum for saying "I don't see town doing this" or your tell works, which simultaneously invalidates your tell on me since its what you are calling me scum for.

I am unpopular because of the votes on me. But just because people are voting me doesn't mean they share or understand your crazy views. They have their own reasons which will come to light soon enough.

You were unpopular when you said it made Marquis town and there were two (?) votes on you? Also Equinox voted you for a post I am calling you scum for, and UT pretty blatantly sheeped me so.... you may be in for a bit of a shock coming up here soon.

[LlamaFluff]

What is this "exact same reason"? What tell am I using?

You said that I am scum because "you don't think town comes to his conclusion". I said that GIF was scum because "I don't think town responds like that". Both are essentially saying the exact same thing. Why is it wrong to you for me to say that I GIFs reaction to a situation is not something town would think, but apparently my reaction to his reaction is to you, something that town would not think.

Its the same thing each way just worded slightly differently is it not?

[LlamaFluff]

Looked back and saw this:

Now that I think about it, it doesn't matter how I interacted with CES. I would just want to do a quick re-read of the game because other people are probably reading it for meta.

Why would town care about trying to figure out what their meta was in a past game? The only alignment that should be at all concerned with their meta is scum who want to be playing differently (if they were scum) or that they should try and match past play (if they were town).

Town should just assume their meta would be the same in both games.

Also can we please not vote onion. Remember the whole town tell from him where to be scum he would have had to make up that a friend came in and picked three players (ignoring that this is probably just two scum) and then posted it and not made a "nah I am" comment? That level of faking town slips just seems genuine instead of manufactured.

[LlamaFluff]

Seriously we need to just lynch Prawn.

We are not lynching NJAC because of the VT claim. That one is easy to sort out.
We are not lynching onion because of the whole three scum + what their friend apparently told him. Even if he was scum I really doubt he had the idea to post that in thread to apparently fake town slip or something
We are not lynching me for the same reason we are keeping NJAC alive
We are not lynching anyone else (particularly GIF) because I don't think a wagon can form fast enough

Its going to be a prawn lynch or no lynch here, basically guaranteed. Check out how he is trying to justify a lynch of another null read now too:

Also, his gifs kinda annoyed me. That said, I never found bubs particularly scummy, which is why there's no case.

Then he basically just tacks on "OMGUS on sns". I seriously think every scum read of his is someone who called him scum first or was lurking (Marquis). Literally the entire case on sns from Prawn is "I don't like his read and he called me scum and I don't agree with that"

[LlamaFluff]

We are not lynching onion because of the whole three scum + what their friend apparently told him. Even if he was scum I really doubt he had the idea to post that in thread to apparently fake town slip or something

so...because wifom

Townslips are real things. You also get the part of that post as why Prawn wagon needs to happen right? Even if Prawn is town there is next to zero way he is astute enough to figure it out, but you and a few others should be able to understand it.

@Prawn - You literally voted sns because he made a list you didn't like. He makes a list, you complain about it and vote him. Every single player who doesn't have the reads you do end up getting a "they make no sense and are scum" read.

@onion - Where do I ever OMGUS prawn? If what you are calling OMGUS is really OMGUS, its basically a scum tell to ever vote someone who voted you first for any reason. Also me being the first one to vote prawn and actively shutting down justification to vote basically every other major wagon is trying to vote everyone? Really?

I can basically guarantee that Prawn is going to be lynched today its just a matter of if anything else is going to also happen.

[LlamaFluff]

I can basically guarantee that Prawn is going to be lynched today

saying things like this make me want to lynch the person who said it

Its true though. Im betting you are pretty sure of the reason im saying it too.

Also PJ using a SK? Im pretty sure I remember him not liking third party roles. Nah this is all weak PRs and probably two scum. Im almost surprised town has as much as we do.

Do you like sns' list?
What do you think of sns?

Its fine. I don't agree with all of it but I actually don't think anyone who has a different read than me is scum.
Mild town. Liked OB, no real problem with sns and liked his response to you when you basically insulted all his work.

[LlamaFluff]

@onion - About half the game was voting for me at that point. Again is it automatically OMGUS if I vote for anyone who is voting for me? In that case wouldn't Prawn be scum because he voted for me after moving to sns?

first of all, I didn't say we had an sk and I wasn't trying to do the setup spec thing, I was just giving an example involving an sk for why the standard town wincon is worded the way it is

Im just saying. Half the reason I joined this game is because the chance of multi-scum is essentially zero. Don't want anyone to even be going down that road. PJ putting a SK in the game would be like me using a vig shot, something huge would have to have happened for it to be true.

seriously?

Seriously but maybe not to the extent you are thinking. Its more of a "everyone else is town or at very least a player to keep alive for our benefit". If I am thinking what you are thinking

[LlamaFluff]

@LF do you have more reads you can share with us?

What more do you want than you are scum and NJAC and onion are town? Those are my three strongest reads right now, trying to do anything else is just going to be a distraction this close to deadline.

Would you mind replying to CDB's 458 and TTH's 462?

Its not like these are complicated questions that the answer isn't in either my iso or their iso...

CDB expressed interest in you and Marquis in 343

Im not answering 462 because apparently TTH is the only one who doesn't get that post, you even responded to that post. If everyone else appears to get it and I have explained it multiple times its either a tell that TTH actually is unable to comprehend or something along those lines

Also, are you softclaiming executioner?

That's not a normal role. If I do have any power along those lines though you are absolutely dying, don't think anything could change that because even if you are town, its not like it will be a big loss.

[LlamaFluff]

This is really all you have?

What part of "trying to push things in a new direction near deadline is bad" do you not get? Nothing else matters right now.

Also, if you are town, I think I've played a better town game than you.

If you are town the majority of your game and been whining about you not liking my case and whining about others attacking you so...

Can we seriously just lynch Prawn?

If nothing else for the fact that he has twice done something scummy and then immediately backed up on it and tried to call me scum for catching him doing it. Saying we should lynch one of the onion players, which became a reaction test later. Saying we should lynch Marquis for lurking which he said was a null tell, and then Marquis called him slight town from about three pages of catching up, and I called Prawn scum for his stance on Marquis, and then Marquis was probably town because he was buddying up to Prawn... by calling him slight town about 15% of the way through a catchup. That feels like fishing for a reason to ditch a null read that looked bad. Not to mention the fact that later he seems to take a swipe at onion for calling Marquis out on lurking, saying that Marquis did that as town last he saw him... which would seem to fly a bit in the fact of Marquis being an acceptable lynch for lurking.

He keeps doing these scummy things then trying to loophole his way out of them while players like onion just wall post and get in semantics arguments and drown him out.

Prawn is done. Its just a matter of how much other stuff needs to happen first.

[LlamaFluff]

Do you realize that I said Marquis is a good lynch IF he doesn't improve or he replaces out? I got him to replace out. Now I don't want to lynch him. What is hard to understand about that?

Revisionist history again?

You called him town in 384, because he called you town. He didn't replace until a few pages later. Changing the reason for your actions when I call them odd again? Because it sure wasn't changed because he replaced out, you wouldn't have been calling him town that early if that was your reason.

If you VT-claimed, I missed it. (and why would you

do

that, when no one expressed intent to hammer?)
If you didn't... then what reason

are

you giving to promote your own survival?

Its some more unusual theory but it works, basically I want him alive tonight because of something else that I don't want to alert scum to if they didn't see it. I haven't claimed yet. No reason to.

@mod

- Can you confirm deadline? You have it listed as March 5th but deadline clock says March 6th

[LlamaFluff]

Scum are just going to stall this one to deadline it seems.

Will just claim then. I am a one shot tracker. That is why I have been trying to keep Marquis slot alive so much. My entire plan from the start was to try and either keep a VT claim alive day one or have a strong VT read, track them, and if it was a went nowhere try and depending on gamestate just open it up with two confirmed town who had no utility PR wise leaving scum stuck if any other PRs existed. That's why I have been pretty insistent on town being weak, mod isn't going to have a lot of PRs and then three scum, why I reacted more to onions odd post which mentioned three scum than most (I have been expecting two scum since getting my role) and why I went out of my way to mention N0 directly to UT earlier when confidence was being discussed.

So lets lynch Prawn. Seriously.

*His call to lynch an onion player which turned into "well it was a reaction test"
*His want to lynch Marquis for lurking until Marquis called him town
*His change of reasoning to not want to lynch Marquis when I pointed out his meta read on lurking Marquis didn't match with his treatment of them (which he hasn't responded to - will love to hear this one)

Guy does scummy and inconsistent things, gets called on him, and then changes the reason and calls people who noticed it scum.

Prawn is scum. NJAC and onion are town. Other scum I would probably say one of: GIF/Derange (who has been bugging me on a gut level). Apart from UT/TTH I have varying level of town reads on rest of game.

Seriously. Prawn lynch, lets go. Doing this with 24 hours to spare on purpose here

[LlamaFluff]

I don't buy it.

So if Prawn flips scum you instantly lynch TTH for future reference.

[LlamaFluff]

That's fine because I don't think he would.

This is said with a very odd assurance that what I said is coming from town. If you thought I was scum it seems the logical response would have been "well you are scum so..." and not "well you are wrong so..."

Again. Prawn is probably scum here. If he is TTH should die next.

[LlamaFluff]

aye aye capn

You just going to skirt everything really going on here? And you seriously think there are three scum?

Either way, if I get lynched today power lynch Prawn tomorrow. He is probably scum, worst case he is town who cant keep a story straight and will likely OMGUS vote town who looks at him funny in lylo. Either way, you want him nowhere near the late game.

Prawn/TTH

Thats your scum team.

[LlamaFluff]

from what i can understand of the Llamaspeek, his plan was to find someone who was very probably VT and track them N1, then roleclaim D2, revealing 2 town-aligned people without active PRs. Isn't that bad for town for the same reasons me and derangement were discussing? Revealing VTs to the scum lets them know who not to target. it seems like a bad plan to me.

Yeah this game is going to be weak in PRs. Looking at my role I expected at most two others, and if scum has no roles, I am it. If it looked right to claim D2 (dead scum, lots of prob town players, result on a player getting votes) I absolutely would have claimed right there.

The argument for tracking VT that has claimed, especially if I am reading number of scum right, is that if scum (before all this happened) they would be most likely to submit a kill as the player who is already claimed is usually the "expendable" one, and just statistically in a two scum setup the chance of getting a "false positive" meaning hitting scum who didn't act is low enough to justify a significant town tell. That and if they are scum with a role, they would be dead in the water. The fact that UT doesn't understand the strength of a "no action" on a VT claim from a tracker is REALLY concerning to me. Tracking a player who goes nowhere is a little below the lines of a cop clear, especially if there are two scum because there would be literally only one role that generates a false positive in that case.

Basically assuming a target lives through the night and went nowhere is about 12% more likely to be town than an average player. As tracker you want to be shooting for a player who should give you a "went nowhere" result, what better role to do that then claimed VT?

In the all, it basically produces two players scum would need to nightkill to get rid of. Which is going to limit their ability to get rid of whoever they want to each night as priorities emerge

@onion - You really think Prawn as town makes the onion comment, only says its a reaction test after Equinox and I said he was scum for it. Then calls Marquis null for lurking and says he would hammer. Then calls Marquis town after Marquis called Prawn slight town. Then decided that what he thought Marquis was town for was something that happened multiple pages AFTER Prawn called him town? He literally changed his reasoning as to why a player was town from a shifty reason to something that doesn't line up with the timeline of the game.

[LlamaFluff]

I disagree with the method, but I can see how he would think it would be a good idea. I'm just mulling over how likely it is that he would use his shot on Night 2 (technically 1, but you get the idea) because I remember him being extremely conservative with vigilante shots, but I don't know if that also holds true, even if it's a lesser extent, for investigative shots.

Tracker is a role that gets greatly magnified in power if you get a better grip on the game. Hitting a VT (or claimed) is what you are going for, especially if you are one shot because if you hit town PR night one, you basically have wasted your role.

Also for vigs its not conservative, its that vigs shouldn't shoot. Town have a lower win percent when vigs are present - meaning they have at best far lower utility role than people think they are. Also at least last I ran the numbers they are inaccurate to a level where if you just shot and random you would have a better chance of hitting scum than using the role normal.

This post came out of nowhere and didn't make sense at the time, but now we can see it's a setup for the roleclaim. Scummy premeditation imo.

Would you rather me go back and point out where I assumed two scum (because of my role in part) directly mentioned investigation roles when discussing theory, or the part where I snap hard at keeping a VT claim alive because that is clearly the best player to track?

Plus I like how you are digging in saying that the buddying by Marquis isn't what made you change your opinion. Its very explicitly is what made it change, even if you want to claim something else added to it you very clearly use that post as the point that your read on them changed. If you are town you really need to stop lying about things.

[LlamaFluff]

WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT

YOUR GOAL SHOULD BE TO TRACK SCUM TO A DEAD PLAYER

NOT TRACKING A PLAYER TO NOWHERE

Lets say a VT died and CES was only other PR. That means I would have possibility of:

6 VT
1 PR
1 Scum not killing
1 Scum killing

Lets say I remove the VT claim from the pool. I have results of:

5x VT going nowhere (good)
1x Scum killing (very good)
1x Scum going nowhere (very bad)
1x PR (very bad)

If I target the VT I get one of

*VT going no where
*Scum killing
*Scum going nowhere

It eliminated the very bad and increases the good chance. Less bad results, and you can argue if the VT is a fake claim an increase of the very good option. If VT was real, chance of very good is gone, but its still a towntell. Risk management.

that just seems like a reeeeeeeeeeeeeeal cute maneuver to me

I am all about cute moves that seem pretty odd looking, but at their core do provide slight advantages. Usually they get met by a bit of a freakout too because of how counterintuitive they are.

[LlamaFluff]

Tracked UT nowhere which confirms something I saw that basically should make UT unlynchable. Need to reread a bit with that confirmed and GIF flip

[LlamaFluff]

VOTE: LlamaFluff

If you were going to vote me regardless of what my result was why did you move to the mislynch yesterday?

[LlamaFluff]

Why on earth would you track me

LLAMA

PLS

Because I saw what I figured was an accidental VT claim that also used a type of tell I really doubt people would buy into because its odd.

Also because it would probably help stop a mislynch if onion was still alive and trying to throw up that logic. It would really help if the two of you weren't trying to kill each other.

VOTE: LlamaFluff

If you were going to vote me regardless of what my result was why did you move to the mislynch yesterday?

This a question with an answer that would be obvious had you read yesterday and it's worded in the most slanderous way possible.

You're full of it.

No, you are just now paying off your move of getting in a NJAC mislynch due to a deadline scramble. If you were going to vote me no matter what happened, moving off my wagon to a mislynch is incredibly scummy. Is your first instinct

Vote TTH

Way to be useless and not even follow the instructions such that we might get info out of your entirely shitty anti town actions. I'm not sure why I expected anything better out of you.

VOTE: LlamaFLuff

Your plan was to put it quite simply; bordering between dumb and pointless. The only way I would at all slow play my claim was if I actually got a result that had worth. Anything else would either risk giving away extra information if I actually was scum, which is all your plan did. Increased the chance of me actually being able to do damage if I was scum and didn't decide to give a fake guilty result. If your intent was to try and trap a fake tracker claim, you just have them claim the result and if its wrong then it gets countered.

I mean really, lets say UT was a PR and I was scum. I say "well I tracked UT", he claims an action, and then cool, I caught a PR. Sure I probably get lynched but hey, I found us a PR. If he says "I went nowhere" then boy, he just solved my action for me. Literally the only way I do something like that is if I had tracked whoever submitted the kill, then I would just have opened with "I tracked someone visiting the dead player - anyone want to claim that" and hope scum thought it was a gambit.

[LlamaFluff]

Because I saw what I figured was an accidental VT claim that also used a type of tell I really doubt people would buy into because its odd.

show me

In retrospect this:

without cop results, anyone who is 100% sure of anything on day 1 is deluding themselves

is a VT claim. There was a N0, so there obviously could be roles that are sure of something to start the game. CES would have been, I could have been, the fact that you didn't really seem to register this makes me think VT as a PR or mafia would have much more likely NOT said something like this because they would have realized its not true due to having to had think about it already.

Wanted to just hammer that home with what I was assuming was a negative track result because that type of attack borders into the "ignorance of setup" tell that I like in open setups that is a strong town tell, but at times is very hard to actually get people to buy into at times.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not sure where you're getting "I was going to vote you no matter what." You're bringing that.

Given that lack of anything else, im going to assume that is what you are thinking until you provide anything that could be remotely interpreted as anything else.

I would have said that regardless of alignment or role, actually. it's more indicative of "understanding mafia" than it is "a vt softclaim"

you'll note I'm not confirming VT as my role

Wording sounded like you are VT there, so I made the track choice based on that since there was only one other slot I was reading as not PR. Either way, that post is primary reason for my track.

[LlamaFluff]

Tracked UT nowhere which confirms something I saw that basically should make UT unlynchable.

If that's all right, I'd like to ask you to clarify what exactly you mean with unlynchable.
Yesterday, you could

guarantee

a prawn lynch, and that did not happen.

Went nowhere + other tell I was talking about is why UT should be basically unlynchable in this game. Two fairly solid town tells from a single slot. Also figured the game would move to prawn instead of the likely town VT claim slot who was basically a lurker lynch, I still don't get that one.

[LlamaFluff]

Given that lack of anything else, im going to assume that is what you are thinking until you provide anything that could be remotely interpreted as anything else.

There's a track. Not that you care since you're admittedly making shit up.
Post 676 and Post 677

So because I didn't magically track a certain player I am scum?

Look if you want to try and weakly justify a vote you have to be able to do better than that. What part is wrong? The part where I said he is most likely to be VT? The part where I said getting that result might stop onion attacking him if I get mislynched? The part where I said the tell on him I thought was strong but is the type people have a hard time buying?

You are scum. After the claim you back off my lynch, I explicitly state that I am going to be aiming for a VT player, you say you can see that logic, then you revote me because I did exactly what I was saying to do after you get an easy mislynch on a lurker.

Next time don't get greedy and try to pick up a free mislynch.

[LlamaFluff]

@TTH - I was looking back at your posts, why did you ever support a NJAC wagon? You really just seem to be more upset with Marquis for lurking, but at best you call him (maybe?) scum for when he was in the very early stages of catching up agreed with a consensus read (which is scummy because?). Then PoE... that apparently never changed over about ten pages?

[LlamaFluff]

Just to make sure we're on the same page, do you still think that scum were most likely to send the scummiest-read of them to do the NK, because that's already the most likely one to get lynched?
How does that affect the (unlikely) scenario where UT is scum?

Scum can do a bunch of different things. The correctly play tends to be make what is most likely to be good, or what is least likely to create a poor result scenario. Basically UT is town. That one comment I pointed out regarding N0 stuff, the negative track, and you could easily argue that him hammering and ending up on a mislynch when we didn't need a majority are all reasons he is town.

have you re-read the thing you wanted to re-read, and if so, would you like to share any insights you may or may not have gotten out of it?

Still need to full reread. Still sitting on UT and onion are town, CDB mild town. Rest are null at best.

Speaking of reads that don't look legit, you are completely content to let go of your tirade against prawneater who hasn't showed up yet.

He is still a scum read. You are just far more scummy now that NJAC is confirmed town. That and I really don't see NJAC wagon being entirely town

So you are saying my action was bad because of

1) WIFOM of if I follow my theory of trying to target VT
2) That I didn't try and track a PR... which basically means that I would out another town PR if I found one... which sounds like a bad thing to me (maybe good for scum like you though)
3) Didn't try to catch scum (so trying to confirm town is by something that can possibly catch scum is bad?)

I do love that you are trying to stop UT from being considered clear though. Are you that desperate to try and find mislynches already? What part of my arguing UT is town is wrong?

So what is your reason for NJAC slot being scum? Please be more specific than "it doesn't look legit" which is basically "stuff". Explain. With words that someone else can actually understand.

[LlamaFluff]

if i was town in llama's position i would have went for broke and tried to track scum. i'd have targeted my best scumread and crossed my fingers. it probably wouldn't have worked, but there's a chance i'd track scum, and that would blow this whole thing wide open. that'd be pretty good.

Why is there no chance that UT was scum? Also why is trying to clear town bad? Especially when if I get lynched a player that you would try and call scum?

if i were scum trying to pull of a tracker claim, i'd use a negative result. it is far more likely in most games for a player to not go anywhere at night than it is for them to visit. there are usually more VT's than there are town power roles, and there's usually at least as many sleeping scum as there are visiting ones. its simple math that negative tracking results are just more common.

Why use a negative result for one? Also... yeah... if you wanted to try and fake a result "went nowhere" is going to be best because its the most likely result. To the extent where if I have the setup right there are no more PRs... so unless I hit scum submitting the kill every other player will give the exact same result.

the problem is that track results are almost always useless. as a tracker i'd think it'd be better to gamble than to produce safe results, because the safe results aren't worth anything, and the gambling isn't worth less in the worst case, and a hell of a lot more in the best case

That's a theory difference. I would rather have a player that I can consider essentially confirmed town than hope to get lucky on not only having a correct scum read but also pick the correct scum that is submitting the kill. Safe is good for PRs, minimize the risk of not being that useful.

[LlamaFluff]

So, my thoughts on Llama? His game reads like scum who's more interested in making others look scummy than figuring the game out.

Define "figuring the game out".

Do you think that prawn, regardless of alignment, actually hasn't been lying about certain things this game? Like how his reason for unvoting Marquis according to him happened a couple of pages AFTER he unvoted him? I will gladly subscribe to lynch all liars in those types of situations.

Do you think its at all suspicious that TTH backed off voting me to move to a mislynch that he never really justified a vote for beyond essentially "gut"?

Side note on sns: Why do you think that scum votes NJAC there when NJAC not only had already enough votes for a mislynch (meaning he could easily avoid being on a mislynch be stalling) but also would put me as a PR closer to a lynch. It seems like a vote geared at keeping me alive, which is something that I don't really see scum trying to do in that situation when you could just stall and see what happens.

Its a big reason I like one of TTH/Derange as scum. I don't see that wagon as pure town, GIF flipped town, UT and onion are going to be town as well. As I keep going back on it I like sns a bit for town just because of the timing of the vote. All he has to do as scum there is nothing and chances of lynching a PR increases.

So yeah TTH with the whole "you are scum because of mainly WIFOM reasons" is a great scum pick and trying to say that differences in theory is a scumtell. I really could care less if I didn't do the super aggressive track because its more likely to screw town over if I made that move. Lets say I decided to track player X who has a PR. Well then I really cant claim anything without outing a role and even then it would only prove role and not alignment. I made what is to me the right track. It semi-clears UT and with the way onion (who again, assuming two scum is going to be town) has been playing probably keeps those two away from each other later on. Not even the whole TTH is trying to undercut the track and say it doesn't have much of anything on how likely UT is to be town. Then really the "you should have tried to track a PR" response, which is the absolute worst role I could track (but it benefits scum quite a bit).

[LlamaFluff]

i would have targeted my best scumread, not a null or town read. there's totally a chance that tripod is scum, but you described your reasoning for targeting him to include you believing him town. you decreased your chances of finding scum.

And I am saying that's a fundamentally flawed idea because it increases your chance of a really bad result (a went somewhere without that spot being NKed player). I play conservatively with roles. Make the plays that have the lowest chance of "very bad" as the result, which is exactly what I did.

My feelings on Llama are currently that him flipping either way would provide plenty of useful information, so we should do it.

That's dumb. What could you possibly get from my flip either way? You think that I actually make sense as scum with UT? Would you actually lynch Prawn when I flip town? (and if I get lynched you are lynching TTH the next day - prawn can wait but probably should be dead before the game is over)

@prawn - In your opinion there are only two scum in this game: Yes or no?

[LlamaFluff]

What that basically says to me is that my flip actually means nothing to you. Either way you see UT as more town than not, and either way you don't really see Prawn as scum. So lets just throw out that justification for my lynch since apparently drunk you doesn't really see it as helping with either of those reads much.

Also don't start that "well he might have been scum dodging a result" thing, it would almost be like saying "there might be a GF so lets not trust the cop result". Not quite that bad, but the only way UT is scum is if he is scum who did not submit the kill (likely 1/9 odds) or if scum has a direct counter to a tracker. There is a point where you have to make a few leaps of faith, and this is one of those.

[LlamaFluff]

Now that Derangement doesn't buy the claim she's magically scum too. Isn't it funny how these things work out?

Ive been calling them a scum since the same post I claimed in so... that really doesn't add up.

Try harder.

[LlamaFluff]

I see no lie, no inconsistency, and definitely no after-the-unvote change of reasoning.Please clarify exactly what you think Prawn lied about.

Pretty simple

Most folk are townreads so I'm willing to POE lynch Onion Bubs or Marquis.

His recent buddying of me seems town though. I think I'm pretty unpopular at the moment and him putting his neck out supporting me doesn't seem to serve hypothetical scum-Marquis.

Do you realize that I said Marquis is a good lynch IF he doesn't improve or he replaces out? I got him to replace out. Now I don't want to lynch him. What is hard to understand about that?

Marquis replaced out Feb 26th. So Prawn is claiming the reason he decided Marquis was town came after him publicly saying such.

Funny part is the Feb 25th post flys in the face of why TTH wanted Marquis lynched too. Remember how TTH said that the reads he was giving were useless? The same reads that Prawn appears to have said Marquis was enough to change his mind.

I still don't think that TTH has actually elaborated on the whole "doesn't look legit" for why he wanted Marquis lynched. In fact he never even said WHAT "doesn't look legit" and is really ducking that question.

Its probably because he just jumped the wagon on that reasoning as scum trying to ride a general unpopularness of the slot.

[LlamaFluff]

Do you think all power roles in this game are one-shot?

Yes. But to answer the question I can see coming from you the correct time to use each type of night action differs, and tracking a player who doesn't have any more actions while not as bad, still outs a PR

@Equinox - Yeah that concerns me a bit too, especially as the "player I cant find a reason to call town but im not reading as scum" is usually the "competent scum" in the game from my experience. Not sure if that comes from you being quiet this game or not.

[LlamaFluff]

Do you think all power roles in this game are one-shot?

Yes. But to answer the question I can see coming from you the correct time to use each type of night action differs, and tracking a player who doesn't have any more actions while not as bad, still outs a PR

Glad you and I think alike there.

My question is, then,

why

would outing a spent PR be a bad thing?
Aren't they like a confirmed Vanilla?

1) It would require my assumption about the setup to be correct
2) If they were confirmed by their own actions why would I out them earlier than needed?

Anyone else notice TTH still has not actually explained why they voted NJAC yesterday? Beyond "didn't feel legit" that is... which may as well mean that their entire reason for lynching town yesterday was "gut". After three weeks of play.

[LlamaFluff]

@LF What are your feelings on sns?

@Llamafluff, I'd like an answer please.

I continue to have no real problems with the slot. Its pretty solidly in the null to slight town area.

I notice TTH continues to actually not respond to the request for asking why they voted NJAC. We are now over a week since the vote with no justification but quite a bit of ignoring the question.

Also onion is still town. I don't see him making that "my friend said these three are scum" as scum because it just reads so genuine on a few levels. First it would probably be true and his response to a friend was not "lol its really me" but instead "I will post that to look town". That and I still don't think scum is going to fake the number of scum in the setup, and unless a massclaim really changes things there are only two scum.

I think regardless of alignment most of that GC is attacking onion for is actually something that he would be doing as either alignment.

Out of curiosity does anyone actually know why TTH voted NJAC?

[LlamaFluff]

Out of curiosity does anyone actually know why TTH voted NJAC?

I might be wrong, but the impression I have is that she did not like the slot's brief reads, when Marquis posted them, nor the extended lurking from all involved.

Lets try to follow it up with "what parts"... which I have been trying to get out of him for awhile now yet he cant explain. Funny part is that the exact thing that TTH is calling NJAC slot scum for is the exact same thing Prawn called NJAC town for... so something needs explaining.

caaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan we lynch onion now and stop pussyfooting around

No.

[LlamaFluff]

It has now been two weeks since TTH voted NJAC and they STILL haven't explained the vote. Just for the record.

[LlamaFluff]

For instance, literally everything Llama is hammering on about NJAC, where everyone has the benefit of hindsight and he doesn't want to admit it.

You shouldn't need the benefit of hindsight to tell us WHY YOU VOTED HIM.

How is this a hard request? Why did you vote someone for a reason that transcends essentially "gut"? Instead you continue to just dance around the issue.

Again, TTH either wont tell us what parts of Marquis posting was "not genuine" and why, or cant because the reason never actually existed.

i also played in Spies 7, which was ultra mafia and probably the coolest thing ever. 50ish people, subforums, multiple alignments, games and activities, twas very cool.

Only 7 or others too?

[LlamaFluff]

Oh and again, for the record we have gone the entire game day without TTH being able to answer that question. It seems that town should be able to answer "why did you vote for X?" with something other than "they weren't genuine" and proceeding to give no examples or reasons for thinking that, or with "you are asking that with hindsight".

Basically her entire day could be summarized in a few points

1) I am scum because she doesn't like my target
2) UT is not likely town given the result
3) Ducking answering why she voted NJAC
4) Completely dropping incorrect attacks when pointed out

[LlamaFluff]

I'm willing to be surprised, if she can pull it off.
Not likely, but hey!

Keep in mind deadline is in about 30 hours

[LlamaFluff]

Llama suspecting GIF super early on, then changing to like him due to bad reasons is suspicious.

So I am scum because my town tell (which was true) is something you don't think is a tell... okay...

Llama suspecting Tripod, then moving his vote to Prawn in 303, and we never hear a peep about tripod again, is suspicious.

Really? Im pretty sure I continued to call him a secondary suspect the entire day. I actually called him a good scum pick at the end of the day.

Llama invented the 'preservation vote' thing, then used it as evidence against Prawn.

Same meaning, different wording. Do you consider "backing counterwagons to yours" self-preservation or is it something else to you? That sure sounds like the same thing to me.

in 421, Llama pushes Prawn, but doesn't actually ask questions or anything. its not scumhunting.

Its still scumhunting. Are cases and scumhunting two different things to you?

Also, he claimed and did that terrible plan of his, making the claim un-provable. that's how a scum would do it.

So unless I hit scum submitting the kill or a PR I am scum for my action... THAT makes perfect sense. Its called basic strategy for a tracker, its literally what you balance the game for, you are looking to make a role that is going to get a result for a fairly solid town tell.

If you don't understand that I don't know what to tell you, but most information roles are balanced to find town, not scum, because that is what they are most likely to target. Its like if you are looking at a cop, when designing the role you should be far more interested in the scenario where they are alive D3 with two clear players, than what happens if they catch scum N1.

Also also, good info on from the flip either way!

I thought you already admitted that my flip doesn't really effect your reads either way.

TTH is again noted that she is refusing to respond as to why she voted NJAC. Again, its because there was no reason. Literally no one here can name why you voted him NO ONE. The fact that not a single player can say why you voted someone besides "gut" is a joke. A complete joke. Your reason keeps shifting as why you aren't saying it too. First its that it was obvious, then its your hindsight excuse (again way to drop a defunct point) and now its that its useless.

Are you saying its perfectly acceptable to vote only based on gut?

[LlamaFluff]

1) I am scum because she doesn't like my target
2) UT is not likely town given the result
3) Ducking answering why she voted NJAC
4) Completely dropping incorrect attacks when pointed out

I seriously think if you add in

5) Random read with no backing
6) Contentless post

You have every single post that TTH made today in one of those

[LlamaFluff]

I think its still TTH + Prawn.

Did you know this is the first time Prawn has mentioned TTH in any context of having a read on them since Page 17? Which was only repeating something that they liked from post 71 (literally just looks like messing up a quote from page 3 but am not sure)

Just quicklynch TTH tomorrow. Its not like they will post content either way, they have gone into the turtling scum tactic of just trying to wait it out and worst case give off no associative tells.

@Prawn - So what happened post 71 (you know... a month ago) and your last post to change your read on TTH? Because you didn't mention them between those two.

[LlamaFluff]

For some additional context, I won against him when I was scum, and, if I remember correctly, he did not read me as scum; he should be acting on that paranoia, not sitting there grumbling about 2-3 other people.

For what its worth I have no idea what game you are talking about. Last one I remember with you is Science and that I think was about a year ago.

Does this mean you are also quick lynching TTH tomorrow? Because that is happening if I get lynched today. I think nearly every time I get mislynched scum over commit themselves to my wagon for it to happen. You do realize that TTH has done nothing productive today, and prawn (probable partner) went from being ambivalent to me and ignoring TTH to suddenly somewhat scum reading TTH (after mentioning him for the first time in a month) yet jumping on my wagon right?

TTH + Prawn. Those are your two.

[LlamaFluff]

For what its worth I have no idea what game you are talking about. Last one I remember with you is Science and that I think was about a year ago.

Mini 1326: Mansion Mafia

Not sure why you are discounting the few year old meta from onion when that one is close to three and me playing as an alt but okay. Really I don't remember that one much. Alt personas tend to split a bit in certain areas regardless of anything else at least for me.

[LlamaFluff]

You still haven't answered post 835.

Simply put - negative track result. I treat that as a pretty decent town tell, especially if there are only two scum like I think.