Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over
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Derangement Goon
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Oh gosh.
For a moment there, I thought this was an OMGUS, until I realised which onion had posted.
This is going to be an interesting game.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 11, GuyInFreezer wrote:In post 10, Derangement wrote:
Oh gosh.
For a moment there, I thought this was an OMGUS, until I realised which onion had posted.
This is going to be an interesting game.
What were you gonna do if onion bubs omgus'd you?
VOTE: TTH
I'd have called him out on it, to see what he'd have to say aboutthat.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 22, Equinox wrote:In post 21, Onion Bubs wrote:Can I just check something with you Equinox? That comment you made about LlamaFluff probably rolling scum given your history; was that just an RVS reason for your vote or were you actually making that as a serious argument for him being scum?
It's a serious vote!
Just to clarify:
You're saying your vote is a serious one, because you think one of the scum has played with CES before, and out of those people, Llama is the one who was scum the most often, when he played with you?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 24, Equinox wrote:Essentially, yes. Cogito Ergo Sum is a known quantity, but he hasn't played in a while; I doubt an all-newbie scum team would have gone for him when we have more prolific veterans in this game. To make it extra clear, though, LlamaFluff and I have been opposite alignments in 4 of the 6 games that we've played together.
Where are you going with this?
I was both making sure you weren't being ironic when you said you were serious, and hoping to get a better idea of what the history you mentioned between the two of you was.
The added explanation ofwhyyou think the scum team has at least one of those people helps, too, since I didn't realise he was not active as of late.
Thanks for clearing that up, on all counts.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 28, prawneater wrote:Because L-3 is pretty far away from lynch. L-2 is much better.
Would you also have voted if he'd been at L-2, before your post?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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Heads up! This puts LlamaFluff at L-1
I know we're not in a newbie game, but I'd still like to point it out, just in case someone decides to 'accidentally' drop a hammer without declaring intent first.
In post 36, Untrod Tripod wrote:can we please lynch LlamaFluff before he even posts that would just make my fucking year
How is this a good idea?
I literally can't seeanyupside to that kind of play, and don't think town should base a lynch on statistics for someone's roles in previous games alone.
UNVOTE: Onion Bubs
VOTE: Untrod TripodYour friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 37, onion wrote:we're really going to need a method to this madness, otherwise terrible stuff is surely going to happen. I'd prefer to do it 'I am onion, he is Bubs' but if that's unacceptable we could totally do something else like giving someone a dumb nickname such as 'i am onion, he is stupidpants'. So long as we pick a method early and stick to it without changing, we might stand a chance.
Good idea!
His signature says we can call him Bubs, so I think I'll do that from now on, to make our lives easier.
I usually prefer to write a player's full name when voting/unvoting, but in this case, I'll make an exception for the sake of all our (hypothetical) sanities.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 39, Untrod Tripod wrote:holy SHIT how dense are you
I'm pretty dense, apparently.
If you're trying to say that only scum votes someone who's at L-1, then I disagree.
I have already witnessed town derp-hammering before, so now I try and make sure that doesn't happen (whenever it does, if the lynchee flips town, the next day is an almost guaranteed mislynch).
Did I miss something?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 44, Untrod Tripod wrote:if anyone outside of a newbie game derphammers someone WHO HASN'T EVEN POSTED then they deserve to die and I hope they burn in hell
See, I agree with this!
What bothers me is that you assume any player worth their salt will know not to derphammer, but put Llama at L-1 anyway, hoping to catch scum who do.
I don't think intelligence (or its absence) is alignment indicative.
The way I see it, you created an opportunity for an accident to happen.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 46, Onion Bubs wrote:Dear everyone who disagrees with me when I say that three votes is enough pressure:
<snipped gif>Why?</snip>
How much pressure is enough is a subjective thing.
Personally, I think that unless people raiseverycompelling arguments about why someone is scum, or a wagon grows enough to threaten a lynch if just a few more people join it, accused scum can give staggered, vague, or incomplete answers in hopes that people get distracted by something else before there's anyrealdanger.
Three votes puts Llama at only L-3: Enough to know people suspect him, but still some wiggle room.
L-2, on the other hand, presents a very solid motivation to address people's concerns.
I feel the need to point out, however, that I amnotcomfortable with an L-1 this early, especially on someone who hadn't posted yet.
In post 46, Onion Bubs wrote:PS: Expect more of these animated gifs in the future as long as I am alive.
Haha, fun to know!
Just please keep in mind that, due to severe limitations on my mobile data plan, I might have images turned off while browsing somewhere without a WiFi network (like when I'm commuting).
Please try to ensure any important messages aren't image-only, or I might accidentally miss them.
Thanks!Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 51, Untrod Tripod wrote:In post 45, Derangement wrote:What bothers me is that you assume any player worth their salt will know not to derphammer, but put Llama at L-1 anyway, hoping to catch scum who do
it's called reaction fishing and you ruined it
Sorry!
Derphammers, or their suggested possibility, are probably a bit of a touchy subject for me.
I'll try to keep in mind that everyone around's grown-up, but I'm still not a fan of how you did it.
And yes, I'm still going to make L-1s easy to notice, if the person who created them doesn't point it out.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 60, Equinox wrote:In post 26, Derangement wrote:I was both making sure you weren't being ironic when you said you were serious, and hoping to get a better idea of what the history you mentioned between the two of you was.
Why did you need to make sure? If I had been joking around, what would that have told you?
I thought you were joking because the maths-person in me doesn't believe in previous random outcomes (like which factions someone was in previous games) as reliable indicators of future random outcomes (like which faction someone is now).
Still, since your point about the people who played with CES has merit, I felt I'd make sure and ask.
If a wagon had formed on Llama before you answered, it'd have been a lot harder to tell why the people who jumped on it did so, and anyone with scummy intentions could try to chalk the whole thing up to a misunderstanding later, and back out if they felt it benefited them.
This way, we've removed a lot of the ambiguity that scum could make use of,andI now have a good idea that you wanted the RVS to be over as quickly as possible.
Had you been joking around, I'd know to watch out for more irony from you in the future, and I'd need to give any people on the wagon a much closer look.
I don't think it' healthy for RVS votes to grow into RVS L-2 (or bigger) wagons.
In post 60, Equinox wrote:In post 53, prawneater wrote:I wasn't crazy about it. What exactly did you like?
What didyouthink about LlamaFluff's reaction?
First impressions tell me that either he simply doesn't put any stock in an early L-1 wagon on him turning into a lynch, and goes about business as usual (regardless of alignment), or he's scum who's keeping his posts short to avoid accidentally adding more fuel to the wagon.
I don't agree with his interpretation that Guy In Freezer was denying having played with CES before.
The accusationcouldbe an attempt at deflecting heat from himsef.
The first half of his Post 59, however, builds up around that in a way that appears to come from a town mindset.
I'm not very fond of UT's early L-1 vote either, but it's an easy thing to not like.
All in all, I need to see more of Llama to form a satisfactory read.
For the time being, gut is pinging him as null/town, mostly because ofhowhe's looking into GIF.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 61, Untrod Tripod wrote:In post 59, LlamaFluff wrote:"Reaction testing" is a cop out to allow yourself to get away with scummy stuff.
hadn't said it was reaction testing yet
Actually, you had.
In post 51, Untrod Tripod wrote:In post 45, Derangement wrote:What bothers me is that you assume any player worth their salt will know not to derphammer, but put Llama at L-1 anyway, hoping to catch scum who do
it's called reaction fishing and you ruined it
Care to revise your answer?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 67, Untrod Tripod wrote:reading is tech, bruh
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p6600966
care you revise YOUR answer?
I misunderstood which post you were referring to with your #61.
Consider me corrected!
I still stand by everything else I said about your L-1 vote.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 83, Untrod Tripod wrote:can't help but notice that the main thrust of the argument we're hearing from Llama is "this play is suboptimal" not "you're about to lynch town"
Maybe it's just me, but as far as I can tell, saying "you're about to lynch town" is as unconvincing an argument for one's innocence as it is easy to type.
Would you really have been appeased if he'd said that, instead of actually trying to build a case on the people who he thinks are scum?
I'd also like to ask you not to simply ignore the points Llama is bringing up about you, if that's okay.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 88, Untrod Tripod wrote:like, this right here is mafia, guys. figuring out perspectives and alignments based on the types of arguments people make.
no one is going to walk in here and hand you an alignment, and this shit is subtler than "yeah only mafia would ever put someone at L-1 early"
christ almighty why are you people trying to figure this shit out on black and white tells? those DON'T EXIST outside of newbie games.
Rest assured, I respect my fellow players enough to not expect any dead giveaway scumtells (though wishful thinking remains ).
If I bring up something I see as possibly scummy, it's because I want the person who did it to talk to us about it, and hopefully elaborate onwhythey did it.
The more people share about the thoughts behind their play, the better our understanding of their alignment.
Right now, I'm not sure I can buy the idea that you would be certain enough of your scum-read on Llama to L-1 him again the way you did.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 107, Untrod Tripod wrote:what's the end game, exactly, as scum, if that was my strategy?
Are you saying that, if llama is town and you're scum, a quickhammer mislynch now, followed by a mislynch on whoever dropped the first hammer,isn'tsomething you'd want?
Come day three, you'd give us with the exact same arguments you're using now.
Maybe you'd get lynched (and maybe scum could get town cred for bussing you).
Maybe you'd NK the right people and manage to convince the rest of us of your innocence, or WIFOM your way out of a lynch, making it evenbetterfor you!
Whatever the case, you'd be shortcutting your team right into an easier endgame.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 111, Untrod Tripod wrote:In post 110, Derangement wrote:Are you saying that, if llama is town and you're scum, a quickhammer mislynch now, followed by a mislynch on whoever dropped the first hammer, isn't something you'd want?
uh, no
Then whatareyou saying?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 114, Untrod Tripod wrote:knowingly pushing a mislynch like that, in that way, does nothing but drawn attention to me and allows for big bright spotlight associative tells around the wagon
there's no upshot to doing that
This could very well be WIFOM on your part, but you're right: itdoesdraw a lot of attention to you, regardless of the outcome.
Now to figure out how likely you are to try this kind of stunt as either alignment...Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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Okay, so I did some background reading.
A skim of several of Tripod's games tells me that he would definitely do stuff like this as town.
As scum, I've also seen him do some risky things, so it's not as clear cut as I'd hoped.
I'm not sure of my scumread on him, now, but am still suspicious of anyone who plays like this.
Tangentially related to the whole L-1 thing:
In post 52, Untrod Tripod wrote:the goal is not to catch llama or catch a scum who derphammers but to SEE HOW PEOPLE REACT TO IT
I guess I got one strong townread out of it and one weak one, so that's nice I guess
I'd like Tripod to clarify who the second person he's talking about here is, please. :3Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 131, onion wrote:"The Cogito List Case"
Cogito was not an active player apparently, and the scum would have NK'd someone they knew, thus scum ought to be someone who played with Cogito (017), and that list is: CBD, GIF, Llama, Tripod.I've removed Equinox from this list because he posted the list.GIF doubted the list (018).
Nooo. Onion, why?
Why would you do something like this?
In post 131, onion wrote:I really like everything Derangement and Bubs have posted. They are being useful to the town, and helping us get good reads on them. This is Pro-town and should be encouraged.
<snip>
Sidenote: Bubs voted Prawn (026) because he voted Llama, and he voted Tripod (062) because he voted Llama. >_>
Please be specific about what you think Bubs' alignment is, and explain how that last part contributes or disagrees with your read.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 144, ChannelDelibird wrote:I don't think much of Derangement's #26; it recognises why Equinox's nightkill analysis exists but does not act upon it either way. Dee should really be reconsidering their random vote in light of this. I also think it's weird that Llama picks out GIF for alleged ignoring of the actual consequences of said analysis but didn't mention Derangement doing the same, when GIF had a better excuse for his own response.
Dee, which pronoun do you prefer?
At the time of my #26, I was inclined to consider Equinox's premise that one of those five likely had a say in picking CES for the night kill, but wasn't well-enough acquainted with any of these players to swap my random vote for just a slightly less random one.
I'd rather wait a little longer and make every vote important, by using it on someone I distrust more than the rest.
Especially when L-2s happen on page 2.
As for pronouns, I'm comfortable with pretty much any of them.
Feel free to use whichever you prefer, you can't go wrong.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 159, TellTaleHeart wrote:Also, I'm operating under the assumption of two scum in the game.
I'm inclined to agree with this.
Town would need to be on steroids to handle three of them in what is effectively an 11p game, and I'm just not seeing it right now.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 161, onion wrote:question where's the question? which questions are directed at me?- In post 141, Derangement wrote:In post 131, onion wrote:"The Cogito List Case"
Cogito was not an active player apparently, and the scum would have NK'd someone they knew, thus scum ought to be someone who played with Cogito (017), and that list is: CBD, GIF, Llama, Tripod.I've removed Equinox from this list because he posted the list.GIF doubted the list (018).
Nooo. Onion, why?
Why would you do something like this?
Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 170, Untrod Tripod wrote:that being said, we know almost nothing about this setup, so let's keep the setup speculation to an absolute minimum until we have more info
Good call.
We can worry about this kind of thing when it becomes relevant.
I'm comfortable with just the uneducated guess at scum numbers, for now, if it means we make their job that much harder.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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Onion...
I think you're putting way, way too much stock in what is or isn't scummy by trying to apply generic formulas, rather than actually looking at people's motivations.
Scum can start wagons. Scum can hammer. Scum can and will do town-looking things, because trying to blend in with town is their job.
Similarly, if town never occupied the middle slots of a wagon, scum would never get lynched.
What I'm seeing is scum!onion relying on textbook signs for his reads, because he's having trouble finding scum motivation where he knows there is none.
The same can be said about instantly dropping suspicion of Equinox for writing the Cogito list, especially if you're going to hold onto the list like a guide on where to find scum.
If it were this easy to conftown someone, there'd be a lot less mislynches in all mafia games.
The only way you can safely rule out Equinox from being scum is if youknowhis alignment.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 191, LlamaFluff wrote:onion is also town for 181 unless something major changes in what I think is going on.
Oh, huh.
Hadn't thought about itthatway!
This is a pretty great catch.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 196, onion wrote:Also Also, i was totally confused about llamafluff and derangement are talking about in my 181 post and i realize that you might be reading it as a breadcrumb or something. it really isn't that, it really is a drunk housemate shenanigan. it really happened and doesn't have anything to do with any power role anyone may or may not have. I mean sure its nice to have people thing i'm town, but yall misinterpreting this is very close to me lying to the town, which isn't pro-town. so yeah. Sorry for the confusion, that isn't the breadcrumb you are looking for.
Please drop any discussion about what roles you may or may not have.
The less scum knows about the setup, the better.
I appreciate your concern for not getting anyone confused with what you said, so I'll go ahead and reassure you that Idobelieve you have a housemate, who was drunk, probably never played Mafia, and blindly pointed those three people out as his guess, using nothing more than inebriated intuition.
You can thank him for us, even if he's probably off on how many scum there are in the game.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 199, Untrod Tripod wrote:it's all WIFOM though and should be ignored
on the other hand, Llama prooooooooooobably wouldn't want to clear you if he was scum?
It'd be WIFOM if I believed scum!onion could think of something like this.
At the moment, I'm thinking he wouldn't.
What makes you say that about Llama, though?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 201, Untrod Tripod wrote:what's the upshot to scum of trying to take someone out of the mislynch pool?
re: onion
I think you should ALWAYS assume that people can think of something like that
I can see scum doing it for town cred, if they think someone else would also notice the reason, anyway.
What I can't understand is why you're shooting down Llama's argument due to WIFOM, but still treating him like you might if he'd presented a reasonyou'd see as solid.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 203, Untrod Tripod wrote:I'm saying it's an observation I see much more likely as coming from TOWN than SCUM
it affects my read of Llama, not necessarily my read of onion
do you get what I'm saying?
Oh!
So even though you don't agree with it, you still thinkLlamabelieves it's valid?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 209, Marquis wrote:Hi! Who's scumreading my slot? Who's townreading my slot? Bye!
Hiya!
Your slot has two posts so far, not counting yours, both devoid of content.
That means I'mnotmanaging to read your slot, and would like that to change.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 212, Onion Bubs wrote:I hope you don't mind me using that format ChannelDelibird. It looks like a really good way to format a post where you talk about several different things but you want to avoid scaring everyone with a great wall of text.
I personally like text walls, but don't mind it when people spoiler stuff to make it easier on the eyes either.
Just make sure that anything really important isn't spoilered, so we'll see it every time we re-read or skim the thread, and you're golden!
In post 212, Onion Bubs wrote:
I like the sentiment that helpful stuff should be encouraged and harmful stuff should be discouraged, but it would be more helpful if you were a bit more specific about how Derangement and I are helping the town.
I'd rather Onion use his time trying to hunt scum, and not explaining the things that most people seem to agree on, unless it is to add something no one else pointed out yet.
Why do you want to hear more about why he thinks either of us is being helpful?
In post 212, Onion Bubs wrote:
Are you saying that, if Untrod Tripod's previous town games showed him playing more cautiously, then you would've been dead certain that he is scum? Or that if his scum games showed him playing more cautiously, then you would've decided that he must be townie in this one?In post 133, Derangement wrote:Okay, so I did some background reading.
A skim of several of Tripod's games tells me that he would definitely do stuff like this as town.
As scum, I've also seen him do some risky things, so it's not as clear cut as I'd hoped.
That'd be silly of me to assume.
Ill only be certain of someone's alignment if they scum-claim, if they fail to do something that'd instantly give one of the factions a win, or when Word of Mod reveals it.
That doesn't mean I won't see certain actions as more likely to come from scum, and others more likely to come from town, and weight my reads accordingly.
What made you imply full certainty in your question?
In post 212, Onion Bubs wrote:
Even if you do manage to spot a pattern where they exhibit one particular behaviour only as town or something like that, how do you know that the game you're currently in with them isn't the game where they (consciously or otherwise) break the pattern?
Idon'tknow.
Which is why I use meta as a gauge for how suspicious I should initially be, just like I do with a bunch of other unreliable stuff like activity, mood, or even gut.
I then go and look into what everyone's doing, and try to figure out why they're doing it.
I'll look closer at people whom I suspect the most, unless I happen to have enough free time to be super thorough with everyone.
In post 212, Onion Bubs wrote:Why do you not feel the need to justify your votes when you make them?
My vote has two uses: figuring out who is or isn't scum (by forcing people to react to being one step closer to a lynch), and lynching those that I think are scum.
If I do not make it obvious why I'm voting someone, then that is because either:- I think that sharing my reasons at that timewould alert scum to something that I'd rather they remain oblivious of, so they can keep playing poorly;
- I'm more interested in determining someone's alignment than I am in convincing everyone else of my current read on them;
- I had already voted for this person before, and don't have anything new to add about them. My vote is probably due to a changed read on someone else.
Similarly, if I unvote someone without much fanfare (which will be a large majority of the time), that means I'm still considering, to some degree, that they might be scum after all.
Unless I have anEureka!moment where one of my scum reads does a full 180°, or a town read becomes significantly stronger, I'd rather let each player defend themselves instead.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 221, Marquis wrote:Actually, I thought Derangement was the mastin alt. Even after they denied being an alt when I asked during our last meetup.
I'm reading now. Commenting later after class.
I haven't met Mastin yet, but am willing to sign up or replace into one of the games they're in, after this one, if it helps prove I'm not an alt.
In post 222, Untrod Tripod wrote:onion does the long posts and wonky theory arguments though
derangement doesn't act like mastin imo
The long posts will probably come, eventually, if I ever have a lot to say to/about someone.
Sorry!Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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Derangement Goon
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Any progress in catching up?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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What's happening?
LlamaFluff, ChannelDelibird and Prawneater haven't posted in two days.
GuyInFreezer pretty much prod-dodged with an unvote after promising to catch up...
Of these people, only llama hasn't been posting anywhere on the site.
@mod: how long can a player go without posting in thread before we can ask for prods?
If it's 48h, I'd like to order three, please.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 241, GuyInFreezer wrote:I bet everyone missed my 194.
I saw it, but thank you for pointing it out again, for those who might have missed it the first time.
I just expected a follow-up up on this:
Did I misunderstand you when I thought you hadn't finished analysing the thread at the time, and would post your thoughts about the rest soon?In post 238, GuyInFreezer wrote:========This is the point where I'm seeing walls and will stop until tomorrow=======Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 233, petroleumjelly wrote:In post 232, Derangement wrote:@mod: how long can a player go without posting in thread before we can ask for prods?
If it's 48h, I'd like to order three, please.
You may ask for a prod at any time. I generally give a player three days before prodding unless a deadline is imminent, in which case waiting only two days may be appropriate. On the whole, activity in this game has been very healthy.
Okie dokie!
Thanks for the guidelines.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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@GIF: Could you please clarify on whether or not you're now caught up on everything that came after Post 144?
If you are, I'd also like to ask why you chose not to elaborate on that as much as you did in your quote-stripping Post 194, if that's okay.
Thanks!Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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Alright, fair enough!
I was looking forward to another chunk of awesome like the first, but I can accept this answer for now.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 253, Marquis wrote:oh equinox is a common townread? news to me
hint: i haven't read anything but pages 1 and part of 9/10
maybe i'll actually follow up on my promises after lunch! ciao
I understand that you've replaced in, and there's a bunch of stuff to read through, but this kind of thing strikes me as stalling.
Maybe I'm just being paranoid, but I'm getting a feeling that if multiple people are waiting on a player, delays like this tend to reduce their interest in a game, leading to only half-hearted scum hunting later.
Only scum benefits from remaining an unknown quantity for as long as they can, while everyone else suspects each other.
In post 209, Marquis wrote:Hi! Who's scumreading my slot? Who's townreading my slot? Bye!
Reading this again, it strikes me as gauging how much lurking you can safely get away with.
UNVOTE: GuyInFreezer
VOTE: MarquisYour friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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As a side note, my initial apprehension of Bubs for the things I've asked him in Post 223 is making me not feel good about him taking this long to clarify what should be a simple matter of sharing his reasoning, if he's town.
Especially if we keep in mind that (stalker powers activate! ):- #223 was posted on Thu, 19/Feb/2015 01:12:28;
- Onion Bubs visited the site multiple times since then, the last one being on Sat, 21/Feb/2015 01:26:51;
- It is now approximately Sat, 21/Feb/2015 08:40:00
I know, I'm reading a lot into everyone's timing.
While it can be due to any number of reasons, I still can't help but suspect those who, being aware of questions directed at them, take their time to think of a good reply while other votes and accusations get thrown around.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 269, Onion Bubs wrote:
I'm blaming this delay on the bank for blocking my card when I tried to renew my car insurance because that got me angry and I wanted to avoid having another angry post. So let's see what it was you wanted me to answer.
Welcome back, and sorry to hear about your bank woes.
Hope it gets better soon.
In post 269, Onion Bubs wrote:In post 223, Derangement wrote:
If I do not make it obvious why I'm voting someone, then that is because either:- <snip>
- I'm more interested in determining someone's alignment than I am in convincing everyone else of my current read on them;
- <snip>
- Couldn't you do this without use of a vote, at least to begin with? Give the players some stuff for them to respond to (such as the questions you asked me), and then if you think their responses aren't as townie as they should be, thenput a vote on them. At that point, you have a reason to believe they deserve the vote, plus you can then compare the way they behave under pressure to the way they behave ... erm ... not under pressure.
I often do just that.
However, there are also the occasional times when I'll want to gauge whether the thing that made me suspect someone was done on purpose.
Or even if I'm just reading too much into things that are actually innocent.
I believe we can get just as useful information fromwhichissues are brought up in a person's defence, as we can from what is said to placate those accusations.
In post 269, Onion Bubs wrote:
I have a question for both of you and for anyone else who agrees with these posts. Scum will try to do pro-town stuff because it makes them look more townie and thus they are less likely to get lynched, right? Well what's the townie's motivation to do anti-town stuff? If you can't answer that, then why, for all intents and purposes, should "anti-town" be treated any differently to "scummy"?
First and foremost, I feel the need to point out that there is an important difference between scummy-looking null actions (whichfeeliffy, but upon close inspection don't actually seem to benefit either faction), and actual anti-town posting (which actually seems to make things worse for town, or better for scum).
The former is mostly a matter of play-style, and isn't a reliable indicator either way.
The latter, however, can be because of any of the following:- Scum did it.
Lynch this.
- A town player did it on accident.
Avoid being this guy at all costs.
- The town player's reason for doing it arrives at a different conclusion than yourreasoning does.
One of the two is probably wrong in their logic.
- If you're wrong, then this action was not really anti-town.
The sooner others help you realise this, the faster you can go back to finding actual scum.
- If the other player's wrong, then they need to be made to see this before they cost town the game by making further bad plays.
- If you're wrong, then this action was not really anti-town.
- A town player made a gamble, believing that the potential for a good outcome out-weighted the price town had to pay if it backfired.
Ideally, one should avoid gambling if it would gain less than one stands to lose, after accounting for how likely one thinks each outcome is.
- A town player knows something the others don't, and their action was actually safer than it appeared to be.
The distinction between scummy and anti-town comes from which of these scenarios you're looking at.
Problem's telling (a) apart from (b) through (e).Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 271, Untrod Tripod wrote:
why are you bothering to vote for prawneater when you're expressing an interest to vote for Marquis with the game in its current state?In post 269, Onion Bubs wrote:I will move my vote to him in 24 hours unless he posts something of substance in that time period.
I'm not necessarily scumreading you, but that point reaaaaaaaaaaaally feels like coaching
I'll second the question, with sprinkles on top:
What was your reason for doing things the way you did, andannouncingintent to vote later?
If you can, please explain why this is preferable to voting Marquis now, and moving your vote to Prawneater later if Marquis posts something to your liking.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 275, onion wrote:
I'm not at all convinced that Tripod is just really terrible town and not scum, but i feel that lynching Llama would give us more information about Tripod than lynching Tripod would give us information on Llama.
Ireallydon't like this.
You're outright proposing we chain lynches on these two players, depending on their flips.
This alone is already catastrophic ifbothof them happen to be town.
But then, here's the implications you're assuming:
- In post 275, onion wrote:Llamascum would go a long way towards town-reading Tripod, at which point i'd be happy to minimize his harmful effects by ignoring him. it would prove him terrible but harmless, which is a big improvement.scum!Llama=>town!Tripod, which (by contraposition) is equivalent to:
town!Llama<=scum!Tripod
- In post 275, onion wrote:Llamatown would cast even more suspicion than we already have on Tripod, and i could easily see me voting for him the next day because of it. it would show that he really is both idiotic and dangerous, having L-1'd a townie with a possible power role on page 2.town!Llama=>scum!Tripod, which is also equivalent to:
scum!Llama<=town!Tripod
Add both A and B together, and you're assuming that there isexactly one scumin {Llama, Tripod}.
Your conclusions would be undesirable (town-read on a mafioso) if both were scum, and outright catastrophic (two mislynches) if both were town.
Why, then, do you assume only A, and specifically decline to accept premise B when you say this:In post 275, onion wrote:
However, if we swapped over and tried to lynch Tripod to get information on Llama, it wouldn't work as well i don't think. Sure scum-Tripod would clear Llama of most suspicions, but town-Tripod wouldn't do anything.
So, if Tripod is town, Llama can be town after all?
Why does the order in which you choose to lynch change how many scum you think there are among those two players?
Also:
I can't stress enough how bad an idea it is to try and actively figure out who has or doesn't have a power role, at this point in the game.In post 275, onion wrote:Llamatown would cast even more suspicion than we already have on Tripod, and i could easily see me voting for him the next day because of it. it would show that he really is both idiotic and dangerous, having L-1'da townie with a possible power roleon page 2.
In post 275, onion wrote:
Vote: Llamabecause he's on the Cogito List, because lynching him will provide valuable information about Tripod, and because he avoid justifying himself until severely pressed, and even then does so minimally, because he's blendy, and because llamas make terrible war mounts.
Normally, I love light-hearted banter, but there's such a thing as too much of it, if it gets in the way of scum-hunting by cluttering arguments with fluff.
RVS-like arguments have no reason to appear outside of the RVS stage like this.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 283, ChannelDelibird wrote:Hello, I'm here - an afternoon of board games turned into a full day unexpectedly. Full catch up tomorrow or lynch meIn post 285, Marquis wrote:hi. it's snowing really hard. i'm cold. so i'm inside all day.
i have some business to take care of rn. then after that, i'll try my best to devote some time to mafia. thanks and maybe!cya later tonight.
Thankies!Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 267, TellTaleHeart wrote:Does he prefer to play town or scum? (CDB, you can answer this if you see it first.)
Would it make a difference?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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Allow me to clarify why I don't like the plan Onion's proposing.
In post 295, onion wrote:If tripod flipped scum then sure it would bonify Llama, but if Tripod flipped town, that wouldn't tell us much about Llama. So a towny L-1'd someone on page 2. what does that say about llama? not much. that's why we should do it in the other direction.
This states that the possible scenarios are:- Town!TripodvotedScum!Llamainto L-1;
- Scum!TripodvotedTown!Llamainto L-1;
- Town!TripodvotedTown!Llamainto L-1.
In post 295, onion wrote:If Llama flipped scum, it would bonify Tripod and we shouldn't lynch him probably ever. If Llama flipped town, it would be another strike against Tripod and, added to other cases, might mean we lynch him, or we might not.
This argues that the most likely scenarios are:- Town!TripodvotedScum!Llamainto L-1;
- Scum!TripodvotedTown!Llamainto L-1.
Why is scenario C missing from this list?
To me, it feels like an unwritten assumption that Tripod is more likely to be scum than not.
Which makes the vote for Llama feelwrong.
Like Onion's doing it to gather reasons to (maybe) lynch Tripod later, and not because he actually thinks Onion's the scummiest of the two and needs to hang.
In post 295, onion wrote:
Its hard to see them both being town, but i suppose its possible. the Cogito list also contains CBD and GIF, both of which are by no means being town-read. But none of those people got L-1'd on page 2, so lynching them produces less data at this moment.
I urge anyone to use caution when using the Cogito list as a guide to finding scum.
Having played with CESisthe simplest explanation for why he was NK'd, but it's not the only one.
It's fine to use it as a starting point, but don't let it become a crutch that prevents you from accepting a scum-team with no members in it, if you think there's evidence towards that. :3Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 296, prawneater wrote:
In other news: I'm fine with killing one of the onions for sanity's sake.
We should just have a poll on which onion we think is scummier and lynch that one.
Onion Bubs is the scummier of the two imo.
Sanity is for the weak!
I'm not going to try and lynch someone, if I simply see them as bad-town right now.
I'd rather try and correct their ways while there's still time, and focus on lynching scum.
Now, if someonedoeslook scummy, they'd better have a good explanation for why they did what they did.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 303, LlamaFluff wrote:Anyone else realize that onion is basically basing his vote on the fact that he thinks that if I was scum it would mean UT is probably town and if I am town is a small tell against UT (which is something I could say for about half a dozen pairs). Also (maybe?) him not understanding my votes - note this isn't not liking reasoning but its not understanding which as far as I can tell he is the only player who actually doesn't understand it. Times like this is where its nice that he basically made posts that are basically town slips.
I'd have been voting him right now, if not for those slips.
As it is, I'm struggling with myself, trying to decide how likely scum!Onion would be to purposefully townslip like that.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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I think I get where the disconnect is coming from, now.
I'll spoiler the following bit, because it's mostly logic theory, and not actual scum-hunting.
Spoiler: How implication works
With this in mind, we can look at Onion's premises.
Spoiler: Onion's presented argument
Why does the strength of Onion's belief that at least one of Llama/Tripod is scum depend on the order in which we learn their alignments?
The only way this makes sense to me, is if he believes (or is pretending to believe) that Tripod is more likely to be scum than Llama, and is mistakenly carrying this bias into how much a town-flip of one of them would reveal about the other's alignment.
I seriously recommend that Onion meditate a little on how certain he is of there being at least one scum between Llama/Tripod and build his case with that assumption in mindat all points, or pick a different line of thought altogether.
Choosing whom to lynch based on how much we might learn from a mislynch, especially when the logic behind why we'd learn different things is faulty, isnotbeneficial to town.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 310, onion wrote::/ one of us is confused and i sure hope it isn't me.
A --> B aka IF A is true, then B is true.
is logically equivalent to
!(A AND !B) aka Never is A true and B false.
is logically equivalent to
!A IOR B aka A is false, B is true, or neither.
Those are the only equivalents. none of these say anything about A with a known B. you are thinking about biconditionals (<-->) which might crop up later down the line if we keep arguing this way.
A <--> B is equivalent to B <--> A.
so i'm pretty sure you are wrong. here, have a wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Material_conditional
I am, in fact, speaking of implication (---->), and not of equivalence (<-->).
If you'd read my proof, step-by-step, you'd understandwhyI say those things are equivalent.
Here, have another two, in hopes you'll see the light this time.
Spoiler: Logic Theorem
Spoiler: Truth TableYour friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 312, Derangement wrote:I am, in fact, speaking of implication (---->), and not of equivalence (<-->).
If you'd read my proof, step-by-step, you'd understandwhyI say those things are equivalent.
EBWOP: and by those things, I mean (X ----> Y), and (Not Y ----> Not X) are equivalent.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 269, Onion Bubs wrote:
In the meantime, Marquis needs to start making himself useful with some more thoughts about the game besides a town read based on a single post.
<snip>
I will move my vote to him in 24 hours unless he posts something of substance in that time period.
Add this to the list of unfulfilled promises.
Time for your randomly scheduled, friendly neighbourhood stalker report:- Post #269 was written on Sat, 21/Feb/2015 14:59:39
- Onion Bubs last logged in on Sun, 22/Feb/2015 20:48:46
- The post you're currently reading (#318) was written approximately on Mon, 23/Feb/2015 23:00:00
Seriously, what's going on?Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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In post 319, Onion Bubs wrote:
In the meantime, how are you getting that information Derangement? Every time I try to find out when someone last came onto the forums all I get is "Last visited: - "
Exactly the same way you are.
The problem is that some players show nothing, like you pointed out, and you need to see what posts they make to stalk them.
Others, like you, actually show up a date and time.
I think it's a forum profile/login preferences thing, if I remember correctly.Your friendly neighbourhood Derangement, or Dee for short.
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