Mini 1752: Back to December (Game Over)

[OceanWind]

VOTE: Supreme Overlord

[OceanWind]

I agree. I was trying to decide between him and Supreme Overlord for my first vote. Supreme's fluff in Post 33 rubbed me the wrong way.

[OceanWind]

Sorry for the lack of posting guys. I'm feeling really sick and sweating at night, not sure what that means yet.

@Mod, I'll be V/LA for a couple of days.

[OceanWind]

A few quick things off the top of my head - I have slight townreads on MattP and curiouskarmadog. Possibly petroleumjelly. Not a fan of most other posters but some of them have recent join dates and I'll sort through those when I get back.

--
@Matt - Mind if I answer through PM since it has nothing to do with the game?

[OceanWind]

I don't have a fever. I ate something I had delivered from a restaurant and then felt nauseus for a couple of days and then the night sweats started. But yeah, I'll probably see a doc.

[OceanWind]

1.)

TKoE, what prompted you to sign up for this game?

What did you get out of this question and response?

---

@Aj The Epic -

1. Why does it matter whether Alchemist addressed Elyse first or whether he finished his conversation with MattP before bringing up Elyse's post?
2. You keep saying that Alchemist demanding logic from MattP all but decimated the chances of a Llamafluff RVS wagon forming. So what? Why is a reasonless RVS wagon the only way to get out of RVS?

scum-elyse is a shade-thrower over an active accuser

3. Justify this in detail. What games have you played with Elyse in the past? Can you bring up examples where you felt she "threw shade" and how exactly you define "shade-throwing" and also point to the places in this game where you saw Elyse "actively accusing" in a way she doesn't when she's mafia.

You also twice said Elyse was "wrong" rather than mafia. Once in Post 97, and once in Post 131. You don't really agree with much of what Elyse is saying so I want a lot of justification for this read.

4. Why do you rail against curiouskarmadog for his Elyse vote even though you state that he is correct in his accusation? If difference in theory is a poor reason for a vote, your first vote on Alchemist doesn't make sense because Alchemist could simply have different views of RVS than you do.

---

@Alchemist (Post 94) -

This entire post is a huge stretch. In a nutshell, you are saying that Elyse is town because: If Elyse were mafia, she's be on the MattP wagon as opposed to the Supreme Overlord wagon because the MattP wagon is "easier" and she had better reasons for scumreading MattP than Supreme Overlord.

I find this whole read rather silly. Elyse is doing something that doesn't make sense. Instead of asking Elyse why she's voting Supreme Overlord over MattP, you wifom a convoluted series of scenarios why it wouldn't make sense for her to do as mafia and call her town for it. Other issues with it:

1. Elyse had voted Supreme Overlord pages ago and simply may not have thought to actively change her vote.
2. I disagree that MattP would be an easier wagon than Supreme Overlord. In fact, Elyse states in Post 92 that she believes MattP to be a strong player which in her eyes makes him a harder target to lynch.

While we're on the subject of bad townreads, correct me if I'm wrong but your townread on MattP comes down to the following: MattP is town because a) if he left Llamafluff alive to frame him, he wouldn't be the first to bring it up. b) You also don't believe that MattP would do this to a partner. Part a is one of many possibilities - it is perfectly plausible for mafia to push people they intended to frame right off the bat. Part b is an unjustified assumption. A hypothetical MattP/Llamafluff scumteam could easily have MattP opening the way he did just to kick up some chaos and fun.

My biggest problem here is that two of your most significant townreads (Elyse and MattP) involve you jumping through convoluted hoops of wifom to justify them.

Edit: I got to Post 137. So, what do you think of MattP's posts since the opening?

---

Is being over-defensive really not alignment indicative guys?

How much experience do you have playing mafia elsewhere? Have you read mafia games or the mafiawiki before joining? Judging by your posts so far, it seems you have at least some experience and have played mafia and scumhunted before. So why do you ask us whether it is alignment-indicative rather than argue your belief that it is?

Elyse vs SO is meh, probably TvT.

Explain in detail why "TvT."

---

I have zero read on OceanWind (which unfortunately won't change anytime soon, it looks), though of course I don't like that he voted for me.

1. Why are you so antsy about my vote on you? This entire sentence was completely unnecessary to write. It is understandable if you don't have a read on me. Who cares? I made 3-4 short posts so far. No one asked you about your read on me.

2. Explain your read on Raskolnikov as "newb-town."

Possible outcomes included Llama responding to Matt making that declaration, or Llama not playing strong town, which should lead to Matt calling him out as scummy

I still don't understand how the question "Llama, do you feel under any pressure at being considered something as a 'town power player'?" was useful. Llamafluff didn't respond. Why didn't you follow-up if you thought it useful? Llamafluff not playing strongly would be apparent whether or not you asked that question. Whether or not Llamafluff responded to MattP isn't affected by your question.

With that said, the reads on Elyse and TKoE have some depth which moves my read on Supreme Overlord slightly townward.

---

You still didn't really answer why you decided to vote there instead of your previous vote (or even why you voted Alch).

I actually see it as a mild towntell for Raskolnikov that he voted Alchemist right after Aj The Epic voted Alchemist and MattP called out Aj for casting an easy vote. I think mafia would have been a bit hesitant to cast what could be considered "easy votes" by vocal members of the town. Why do you think it is potentially scummy?

---

UNVOTE: Supreme Overlord
VOTE: Aj The Epic

That's L-2. Biggest reasons I want this lynch is that Aj The Epic started off with some really "set-in-stone" type stilted scumhunting (Alchemist is mafia because he derailed an RVS wagon which is anti-town and therefore worthy of a vote). I wondered if that was just playstyle or whether he's mafia trying to shoehorn reads. As the game progressed though, the way he develops reads is a lot different. He doesn't think curiouskarmadog should be attacking Elyse over a difference in what he perceives as theory. He goes through the Elyse wagon when it had three votes and does a wagon analysis without really any follow-up. I agree with Llamafluff's point on his question to Elyse regarding buddying. When I'm mafia, a lot of the time when a "townread" pushes or questions me, I tend to turn it around on them if I think I have smoother rhetoric because it strategically makes a lot of sense, but usually as town I'd double down on the townread, get annoyed, call them dumb or what not, and explain the read. The questioning of Elyse doesn't make sense considering that prior to her accusation, he seemed to have her as fairly town.

[OceanWind]

Leaning towards lynching Aj the Epic after discussing other stuff. The posts petroleumjelly brought up are a really good find. Beyond that, AJ doesn't seem to have the passion of a townie about to be lynched, or a desire to put his reads out there, and the analysis of his wagon looked very mechanical.

@Aj the Epic -

Give me a list of your reads with reasons on everyone in the game, not just your wagon or related to your wagon.

---

@Elyse -

What do you mean by "The wagon speed in concurrence with AJ's posts seems natural" as you said in Post 181? Did you find petroleumjelly's jump onto the AJ wagon notable or worthy of comment? Because in Post 178, you ask TKoE and AJ why they called out Raskolnikov's post but not petroleumjelly's, yet in Post 181, you say the only scummy jump was Raskolnikov's.

If I understand correctly, you are scumreading both MattP and AJ. What do you make of MattP's initial attack on AJ (starting from Post 38)?

What specifically in my Post 175 did you agree with? What made you abandon your two seemingly strong scumreads (Supreme Overlord and MattP) to hop onto the AJ wagon?

---

@Alchemist21 -

Wifom aside, what's your read on Elyse? Are you townreading her purely because she had stronger reasons to vote MattP but kept her vote on Supreme Overlord?

---

@Raskolnikov -

There a couple of questions waiting for you in Post 175. Any reason you glossed over them while you answered others?

I didn't like [Aj The Epic's] 143 153 158 and especially 163. Too much meta, wifom, and trying to overcomplicate things. You had so much energy and put almost none of it into your scumhunt (of Tkoe at the time).

What is your issue with Aj The Epic defending himself against accusations? It is not like every post he makes is going to be a case on his scumread. If in your mind, "too much meta" is scummy, why did you never comment on MattP's references to his own meta?

---

@Llamafluff -

When you are finished, I'd like you to expand on what you gained from your questioning of Raskolnikov and where you intended to go with it:

You still didn't really answer why you decided to vote there instead of your previous vote (or even why you voted Alch).

I actually see it as a mild towntell for Raskolnikov that he voted Alchemist right after Aj The Epic voted Alchemist and MattP called out Aj for casting an easy vote. I think mafia would have been a bit hesitant to cast what could be considered "easy votes" by vocal members of the town. Why do you think it is potentially scummy?

[OceanWind]

Town: MattP, Supreme, Llama, Elyse
Town Lean: Ocean Wind
Null: Alchemist, TKoE, CKD
Scum: Rask, PJ

Explain your Llama townread. All you said about Supreme was "

Generally I don't like people waiting to L-1 to start defending them if they're going to do it. It's generally in the area of WK material. However, considering he was prodded there's not much to do with that. Also, his reasons are agreeable so I'd consider him as town. I disagree with both his Elyse and Matt reads.

" What exactly made you townread him here?

How did Alchemist move to null?

Is your petroleumjelly scumread mostly based on the unexplained hop on to your wagon or is there something else?

---

Ocean wind, you ask Aj a bunch of questions in 175 and then vote him (which I guess is okay). He answered the questions but you do not appear to acknowledge this. What were the purpose of the questions and what do you think of this answers?

I wanted to see if any of his answers changed my mind and whether he had some deeper basis for his pushes that I missed. His responses basically restated what he said earlier and I didn't get anything interesting out of them.

[OceanWind]

Skimmed some posts which I'll get to later.

Aj The Epic - You say in a game where you are town that it's not necessary to explain all votes:

I don't feel it necessary to explain all votes. Silverwolf should know that we don't necessary have to explain votes either. Obviously reaction votes generally use little reason, and other instances (sheeping/pressure, gut reads) don't require it either.

In this instance, I WAS looking for a reaction. I do think he's my best bet at scum right now simply due to low content and his content post (130) being highly counter-intuitive to what I see.

His two reads (Silver!town and purple!scum) are in slight disagreement with my own. I feel Purple's early post shows a looseness and ease with the game that beginner scum aren't going to show. Silver/myself/bastion have all been talking a lot of theory. We're NOT going to lie about theory. No one does this in any game because it's provable and written. We're simply teaching. I don't necessarily disagree with the read, I think the reasoning is weak.

Lastly, the reaction was kinda shot but the one thing I noted on gbiddle was it drew a post even without necessarily needing to. For both votes on him, HTZ has responded promptly. Which may seem okay/normal but bothering with every vote shows too much concern for the status of them on him.

Your view in this game in order to support your scumreads on petroleumjelly and to some extent Raskolnikov has been that unexplained votes are in general bad.

In the context of your vote on me, I see both votes from your slot are lacking any real reason. 'Reason-less votes aren't bad' isn't an excuse. Reasonless votes should be explained with solid reasons. Again, in RVS the vote for Elyse is fine, even if the reasons are... subpar. However, it stuck for so long for no reason.

Elaborate more on your priniciples about reasonless votes here. Why are they a problem here when in a different game, you seemed fine with them?

[OceanWind]

As to where I'm currently at, I think petroleumjelly, curiouskarmadog, MattP, and Llamafluff are town although the last one is a bit shaky. That still leaves me with a potential scumpool of six which I'm not totally happy with. I'll re-ISO them and figure out what my thoughts on each of them are tonight and pick a direction to go in.

[OceanWind]

I'm talking about petroleumjelly's vote. He was the second vote on your wagon so there weren't a lot of votes on you. What's wrong with voting you to generate reactions?

In the other game, you list out several scenarios where it is okay to vote without reason which looks to me like you fully understand the benefits of voting without reasoning. But here you are making an issue of votes that were cast without reasoning. That fits in with a scum motive of attacking what looks like the easiest target but doesn't seem to line up with your beliefs.

[OceanWind]

Welcome Xtoxm. Regarding my play, I'm playing differently from Mutant mafia because the playerlist is different. The difference in skill level is pretty stark and I think that should be obvious to someone who was following the endgame and I know you were. I knew town would not win Mutant mafia unless I imposed myself on the town and strongarmed lynches on my own scumreads. I don't feel that way here. Normally, I try to be more collaborative in better playerlists.

Can you explain your read on Llamafluff a bit more independent of Aj?

[OceanWind]

UNVOTE: Aj The Epic
VOTE: LlamaFluff

First time this game I'm feeling really good about a scumread.

[OceanWind]

Xtoxm is town so I don't know what curiouskarmadog's vote is doing there. I like how against-the-grain his reads were - he attacked two players (me and Llamafluff) neither of who received much suspicion before he replaced in. His meta of me while flawed is actually something I think town would legitimately believe. He's also made a lot more waves than I'd normally expect from mafia by arguing against the current wagons and suggesting many more of his own.

[OceanWind]

Reading through, current top suspects for me are Llamafluff are TKoE. The latter mostly because of lack of content. I'm going to try and elaborate on both tomorrow but that's where I'd like the lynch today to be.

[OceanWind]

TKoE's content has been very under-the-radar. He didn't make much of an impression on me and reading back, the way he attacked MattP looked scummy. Your content has been more aggressive so I preferred it. I didn't like your recent vote on Xtoxm or accusation that me and Aj the Epic are scum together though.

Your argument is that I was bussing Aj The Epic throughout the day, kept my vote on him despite the claim, and when Llamafluff made a case, suddenly backed off and went for Llamafluff instead?

[OceanWind]

I wanted to wait for Aj The Epic to post before deconstructing Llama's case but we have a day and thirteen hours so I'm going to go ahead with it.

[OceanWind]

Re-read the case. The first bit is actually fine so I'll start from the second part.

I think it was a bad vote. While it will help in a future case, I'm not going to say you're scum because

This REALLY bugs me. I don't really think in terms of "I can use this down the road" as town, more of "that's somewhat scummy". As scum, I absolutely am noting things that I can use down the road from all players, so I can position myself accordingly.

The problem with this is that when mafia "note things" to use later, they rarely just spill it out in thread and keep it private. It looks like Llamafluff was just using some awkward wording from Aj The Epic in order to drive a lynch through.

Additionally his response to getting put at L-1 is more to attack those who are voting him just in a single post (PJ and Rask) instead of trying to get players to unvote him. That type of a reaction seems far more desperate as its trying to forcibly change things with more of an OMGUS type attack instead of trying to prove that you are town.

How is he supposed to "prove that he's town" and "get people to unvote?" The most straightforward way to do that is to scumhunt. This seems a lot like the "overdefensiveness" attack that Llama hates because it's subjective and "prove that you are town" isn't really something anyone can do on demand.

---

Actually, going over this case in detail bit by bit, it isn't as bad as I originally thought and actually made some good points. I had a strong gut reaction that this was a propped-up case made by mafia to just drive the Aj The Epic lynch through.

I need to re-evaluate what I think this means for Xtoxm and curiouskarmadog.

[OceanWind]

Aj The Epic was active yesterday and this morning but didn't post despite the game reaching a crucial stage and deadline approaching. The more I think about it, the more I just don't think it is random chance that the first person we ran up claimed doctor.

The one thing I saw as a towntell initially was this:

You're beating a dead horse: I'm going to die tonight so you might as well not waste your time after getting caught up over something I do all the time.

The mentality that he would die tonight anyways and that this was a waste of time. But as time passed, his lack of attention to the game doesn't make any sense if he felt his time was limited (either by lynch or nightkill) so I'd be expecting a lot more involvement.

[OceanWind]

Xtoxm still reads town to me. The one thing I was uncertain about when he replaced in was because before he replaced in, he PM'd me to ask if I was cool with playing with him again after Mutant. That leads me to believe he was following this game and was possibly going to replace in. That means his initial thoughts on the game are probably coming from an uninformed perspective regardless of what his alignment is. For instance, if he genuinely thought I was playing differently from Mutant, he could have opened with suspicion on me even after drawing mafia. It's his later posts that would be more telling.

Even then, I have a hard time seeing him arguing against all of the current wagons and suggesting several new ones when as mafia, he could have just picked whichever one he wanted.

There's also his suspicion of Llamafluff and Aj The Epic together which is a bit of a stretch but something I don't see much scum motive for. If he was mafia with Llamafluff, I don't see why he'd just want to tie him to someone else pointlessly. I don't think he's mafia with Aj The Epic as tying his likely-to-be-lynched partner to Llamafluff so blatantly would be dangerous territory as mafia.

Finally, there's the push to wagon me. I was obvtown in Mutant Mafia (the game Xtoxm played with me). So, if Xtoxm knows I can be obvtown and difficult to lynch, why wouldn't he as mafia just settle into townreading me especially when no one else was suspecting me? Unless he genuinely suspected me while following along uninformed and once he replaced in thought it would be a good place to push for towncred because I would acknowledge that I'm playing differently from Mutant mafia. I still think overall that this is less likely.

The question at the back of my mind was what made him think it was improbable that Llamafluff was town and right about Aj.

Xtoxm -

Is Llamafluff normally known to bus?

I think town Llama would not be willing to risk lynching a doc like the rest of us

What makes you think this?

Llamafluff -

Is this reasonable for Xtoxm to assume based on his past experience with you.

[OceanWind]

Adding onto that, MattP was pretty town. He did get inactive later on but he replaced out so there would have been a genuine reason for that inactivity.

Coming to curiouskarmadog. I can see him agreeing with Llamafluff and his general posting still comes across like he believes it. I do want the vote on Xtoxm explained though. Both that vote and the vote on me are weak. I don't see what of Xtoxm's posting would have caused someone to react by voting him. The one concern I had was that his last two votes were both on people who accused Llamafluff (the supposed "best player in the game" at least by virtue of MattP expecting him to be the N0 kill), so I'm concerned it might be a high-level manipulation tactic but that's somewhat of a paranoid theory.

@curiouskarmadog -

Can you explain your vote on Xtoxm?

[OceanWind]

This is a mess.

We need to consolidate on a wagon.

We do and I'm still thinking about where I want to go.

[OceanWind]

@Ocean: That was 2am for me, so my posts were really short and not very informative. Not what's needed here.

Here's my problem: Llamafluff made the case the yesterday evening. You were online and posting last night. You were online and posting this morning and yet you made no posts until I called you out.

You respond very passionately to Llamafluff calling his points "bullshit" and in general using strong language. So, if mafia was bullshitting a case on you that caused this type of passionate response, wouldn't you immediately respond to it rather than deciding "what's happening in Back to December? Oh, scum made a case on me. I'm going to sleep and will address this tomorrow." That doesn't feel right considering how you responded to it.

[OceanWind]

UNVOTE: Llamafluff
VOTE: Aj The Epic

I'm willing to take that risk lynching a doc claim.

[OceanWind]

OceanWind is now a solid Townread for me.

I'd still like Rask lynched. My vote in him was about him not explaining his votes, not having little content overall, and that he thought that's why I'm scumreading him makes me think that long post of his was meant to make us think he can provide more content and make us more hesitant to lynch him.

TKoE would be my second choice. His scumminess goes way up if Rask is scum, but it's still suspicious that he was trying to draw out an early claim from me.

Some of the recent cases on Llama make sense to me and are good enough that I'd vote here

if I absolutely had to.

Can you expand a bit more here? What "cases" on Llama made sense to you specifically? Why am I solid townread? Was it because I went through Llamafluff's Aj The Epic case and attacked him for it? Because I had a strong initial reaction that his case was scummy but going back and looking at it, I changed my mind because he does make some good points and the bad points aren't as bad.

Can you explain the context of the bolded part? Why do you phrase it that way? What was your read on Llamafluff before and what is it now?

What is your read on Aj The Epic?

[OceanWind]

You respond very passionately to Llamafluff calling his points "bullshit" and in general using strong language. So, if mafia was bullshitting a case on you that caused this type of passionate response, wouldn't you immediately respond to it rather than deciding "what's happening in Back to December? Oh, scum made a case on me. I'm going to sleep and will address this tomorrow." That doesn't feel right considering how you responded to it.

Because I didn't read the game until this morning. I didn't feel like getting worked up before bed.

Okay, your response here:

@Ocean: That was 2am for me, so my posts were really short and not very informative. Not what's needed here.

seemed like you read the game and decided that you needed to make longer posts here so you were going to wait until it wasn't 2am. But in your more recent post above you say you didn't read the game until this morning. So, how would you know you needed to make longer posts here?

[OceanWind]

I was curious before you switched to me as I mentioned in Post 306. Why would it have mattered even if I didn't?

[OceanWind]

I expected you to respond and discuss it with me naturally. Your lack of response told me you were the type of player who just skims, responds to what he wants and ignores stuff that doesn't capture his interest. So, I asked directly.

[OceanWind]

I'm not townreading Llamafluff. I'm still thinking about whether I want to switch or not.

[OceanWind]

In the off chance he is actually town that would change quite a few reads.

What are your reads now? You haven't actually talked much at all about anyone other Aj The Epic nor commented on recent events i.e. Xtoxm coming in and accusing you of bussing, me voting you etc.

[OceanWind]

Yeah, you know what, let's go for it.

UNVOTE: Aj The Epic
VOTE: Llamafluff

They're both scummy but this is the safer play. Llama's case and push just isn't resonating with me as much as it should considering I was voting Aj when he made that case. I don't like that once you came in and accused him of being partners with Aj, he ignores that and starts off with this single-minded, dedicated push on Aj and puts everything else to the side. Aj at least was offering reads and opinions on the game.

[OceanWind]

I dislike that Llama's suspects are basically people who voted him. But TKoE was actually pretty bad. His read going from "slight town" to "moderate scum" is almost funny.

Do we have time to switch over?

[OceanWind]

To TKoE I mean.

[OceanWind]

Going to do a quick re-read in the next couple of hours and figure out whether I want to switch. In the meantime:

If somehow a TKoE wagon happened I'd go there, but there's only 12 hours left so I doubt it.

Intent to Hammer Llama

Was there a reason you didn't vote Llamafluff when you posted a picture yesterday?

[OceanWind]

ISO'd TKoE and I'm still on the fence. He hasn't said anything at all about Llama before voting him and only mentioned the "Llama was slight town, now he's leaning scum" read in the post where he voted him so it isn't as opportunistic as it initially seemed to me. I still think his suspicions are either reactionary or go-with-the-flow which I don't like. The MattP push was based on Matt saying his scumgame sucks. The FOS on Aj The Epic came up when Aj was being wagoned and said he suspected TKoE. The Supreme Overlord vote and suspicion came up when Supreme Overlord pushed him so it was an omgus reaction essentially. The Alchemist vote and request for a claim seemed to have come out of nowhere. The Llama vote also came out of nowhere. I think there's a good chance he's mafia.

I'm going to re-read Llamafluff again in depth.

[OceanWind]

One of my issues with Llamafluff is how he's selectively applying the "overdefensive" tell. Essentially, his position is that using "overdefensive" as a tell is scummy because it gives the target nothing to defend against and is subjective and vague. I don't agree but I searched through Llamafluff's games and he does indeed believe this as town. He's used it both as town and mafia in the past.

So, when TKoE makes a big deal about how MattP is overdefensive (Post 167) and then flat-out calls Aj The Epic overdefensive in the same post, Llama doesn't take note at all. But he does when it applies to Aj The Epic.

I still don't like the single-minded focus on Aj The Epic. He wasn't so certain until Xtoxm replaced in and accused them both of being partners. Completely ignoring it looked like he wanted to brush it under the rug and not turn it into the big discussion of the day. That way if he led a lynch on Aj The Epic and killed Xtoxm, that would be buried.

The VT claim actually doesn't make him more likely town if he's partnered with Aj The Epic. If there are two mafia which is a good estimate and his partner already claimed a PR, his only shot would be to make a last appeal, soft VT and hope the wagon switches over. He can't claim a PR now and limit his own life expectancy. The post where he claimed did look genuine though.

Leaning towards keeping my vote here but I'm going to finish the rest of his ISO first.

[OceanWind]

The other thing concerning about Llamafluff is that his suspicions pretty much switched around based on who suspected him. Raskolnikov was a pretty big suspect of his but now that Raskolnikov is supporting him and on his side, the suspicion disappeared entirely. Although if he was so certain that Aj The Epic is mafia, it would make sense to think that someone voting him was town and those voting in essence the counterwagon (Llamafluff) contain likely mafia. I want to see how he reacts to pressure as town and mafia so I'll take a quick look at his past games.

[OceanWind]

In Mini 1647, Llamafluff got mislyched D2 as a town tracked. He spent much of the time before his lynch telling the town who to lynch after him which matches up with his posting here. Differences from there to here is that there he seemed a lot more active and passionate and willing to explain his reads. Here his posting is minimal and has a 1-2 post per day routine and he doesn't seem as invested in the game.

The one thing giving me pause is if Llamafluff is a reputable player, I'd expect him to be able to manipulate the town well enough to not get wagoned D1 but his posts don't actually betray an agenda.

@petroleumjelly -

You modded the game I linked above. Do you have any comments on how Llamafluff reacted to an impending lynch there as opposed to here. What is your read on Llamafluff?

The last thing I want to do is read through a scumgame or two before deciding whether to jump to TKoE but I can't find any.

@Llamafluff -

if you have links to your most recent scumgames, I'd appreciate it. I'll try and look for them but for a listmod who locks all the open game threads, finding games is really hard.

[OceanWind]

Okay, just got caught up. Don't hammer yet. I think I want to switch to TKoE. Something that petroleumjelly brought up made me want to go back and check for associations between Aj The Epic and TKoE. I want to lynch TKoE first because it's the safer move for town. I'm not comfortable with the Llamafluff lynch.

[OceanWind]

Alright, here are the relevant posts what TKoE has made about Aj The Epic:

Post 167 - He quotes a few posts of Aj The Epic, calls them scummy, and says that while MattP is the better target, Aj The Epic "

better straighten up and fly right, because he's looking all kinds of suspicious at the moment, And I could easily see myself switching over otherwise

."

Then he FOSses Aj The Epic. This looked suspicious to me at the time because Aj The Epic was receiving a lot of pressure. In hindsight, it could be a move by newb-mafia that didn't want to be left behind when their partner is on the chopping block and reacted in panic.

Ninja'd

VOTE: AJ L-3

... really? You just pop in and throw a vote on Aj without another word? Dude... I know he is not exactly acting like a paragon of Townly virtue but that's not one at all.

Then immediately in the next post, he tries to divert attention onto the most awkward-looking voter of Aj The Epic.

Next post (Post 173) is defense. Not entirely sure what to make of it.

So, Aj claims Doc and saves himself from the lynch. I sure hope he's telling the truth or we'll be kicking ourselves later.
Having said that, I find it a little suspicious how quickly that wagon rose and fell. No further comment at the moment.

This is a rather odd comment considering he quickly throws it out there and then attempts to cast suspicion on others because the wagon "fell."

I'm also now suspicious of your defense of Aj, it's rather vehement. A buddy trying desperately to cast doubt on anyone but their partner perhaps?

This part to Supreme Overlord really fits in with a newb-mafia trying to tie partners to townies. Fuzzylogic tried it in Mutant mafia as well. I mean, TKoE could have been suspicious of scum-Supreme Overlord defending a town-Aj The Epic, but his immediate thought is "partners!" which I think comes from the mentality of "this guy defended my partner so there's a pretty juicy association."

His reaction to the claim is pretty ordinary (Aj The Epic is mafia but don't want to risk the doc which I would actually agree with).

---

So, I realize I wrote an entire case with unflipped associatives but as I pointed out before, TKoE is independently scummy and under-the-radar with or without the link to Aj The Epic. But I wanted to see how these fit in as a team. They actually fit in better than Llamafluff/Aj The Epic.

[OceanWind]

VOTE: TKoE

Glanced through Aj The Epic's posting. I have no idea why he voted TKoE and I think someone talked about this before as well.

[OceanWind]

Unless of course we want to surge on OW

Hi. We were in the middle of a conversation before you stopped posting earlier.

Why does it matter to you when I asked you about the vote on Xtoxm? You also didn't answer my actual question as to why you voted Xtoxm in the first place.

Have you caught up with the thread?

[OceanWind]

I'm not sure who will be online at deadline. I will definitely be online all the way to deadline so if anyone wants, I'll unvote and they can place their vote on the wagon. I'll hammer 20 minutes before deadline if TKoE doesn't show up to claim.

[OceanWind]

UNVOTE:

[OceanWind]

@TKoE -

if you are a commuter, did you not think that two roles that prevent mafia from getting killed (commuter and doctor) were unlikely to be in a game together? If you did, why didn't you push harder for the Aj The Epic lynch?

Did you crumb your role? Do you normally crumb?

Where did you play mafia offsite? Can you give me a link to two towngames, two scumgames and your username? I want to go over them quickly.

[OceanWind]

What is weird about your role? Claim how many shots you have.

[OceanWind]

I can only make myself unkillable, like a x-shot bulletproof, doesn't seem like it'd clash with a Doc?

Do other actions still affect you or does it just stop you from being killed?

What are your reads?

[OceanWind]

Yeah, that's what I thought too. It just seemed like an odd claim for mafia to pull out.

I'm trying to figure out how this setup works though. Eleven is a weird number of players to have. We're looking at either two mafia who have an uphill battle of getting four mislynches to win. Or we're looking at three mafia and multiple town protective roles.

[OceanWind]

I still think it's unlikely he chose commuter of all things to fake-claim. Commuter isn't any more likely to get people to back off of him than VT.

I suppose he could be a mafia commuter and there could be town or third party killing roles. Or he could be a commuter serial killer. Thoughts on how an effective eleven player setup would work?

[OceanWind]

Rask confuses me, his playstyle is slightly obnoxious (sorry...) but I don't really get a scum vibe from it.
Elyse I like, though there are some slight scummy undertones
Xtomx I've explained seems very town
Alchemist I'm wary of. Mostly just a gut feeling though
Overlord is playing within his meta and seems obv-town
Aj ... well if he's not dead tonight he's certain Scum
Llama seems the most scummy other than Aj
PT I got nothing
Ocean you seems reasonably town.
CKD is absent more than not.

Why is Xtoxm town? You seem very sure about this despite having MattP as a scumread before but said that he was oozing town all over.

You spent a lot of time pushing Supreme Overlord. At what point did you realize that he was town, obv-town, even? Describe what his town and scum meta look like in a few sentences.

Why is Llama the second scummiest?

[OceanWind]

TKoE, did you use your commuter shot N0?

[OceanWind]

I don't know if we have the numbers to lynch anyone other than TKoE at this point though.

Supreme Overlord, petroleumjelly,

are you still online and watching?

[OceanWind]

I'll hammer after he explains his reads.

The person I really think is mafia though is curiouskarmadog. Those last posts were pretty bad. He stuck his vote on me when the rest of us were trying hard to figure out who to lynch. I asked him a bunch of questions about his reads to which he didn't respond but when Xtoxm pointed out his lack of contribution, he posted pretty immediately to talk about how he's posting from a phone. I also posted a lot of content since his vote on me so his lack of engagement with anything and simply popping up asking if people were willing to blitz me (which no one really was) seemed off. Using Xtoxm and Alchemist as reference points, I felt I was contributing quite a bit earlier although wasn't obvtown. I do think my play in the last few days went beyond what I'd do as mafia and the

timing

of Xtoxm's and Alchemist's townreads make a whole lot of sense. curiouskarmadog seemed a bit oblivious to that and just keeps chugging along without really doing anything.

Pedit: I was trying to get more information from TKoE.

[OceanWind]

TKoE, were you town? Pretty sure I haven't seen a mod that disallowed the lynched players from talking so I think that's fine.

[OceanWind]

Xtoxm, and LlamaFluff are strong townreads. Leaning town on Alchemist21, Elyse, Raskolnikov, and Supreme Overlord for how they jumped onto the TKOE wagon without hesitation - I'm going to give the thread a good once-over to confirm I'm not missing anything with these four.

That leaves us with curiouskarmadog and Aj The Epic. Despite the connection case I made towards the end of D1, I'm leaning towards it being curiouskarmadog. If Aj The Epic was town, petroleumjelly would be mafia's top target. He was universally townread except by Aj The Epic who had him as a scumread which means he wasn't getting doc protection. If Aj The Epic were mafia, there seemed better tactical options like me, Llamafluff, or Xtoxm. Or even Elyse due to Llamafluff calling out a towntell. Killing someone he scumread seems like an odd move.

VOTE: curiouskarmadog

He knows to show up when called out (Post 367) but has been dodging my questions. I haven't taken Aj The Epic off the table but I want to see more contribution from this slot. Don't care if he's posting from a phone. He has the second most posts in the thread. He seems to be following along just fine.

[OceanWind]

So, curiouskarmadog, my strategy when one of my partners was doomed into fake-claiming doc was to... bus the other one?

[OceanWind]

First off, I'm not clearing anyone because they didn't hammer Llamafluff. a) Hammering before I caught up and discussion subsided would have looked suspicious to some degree, and b) they could have been expecting someone else to hammer so they don't have to take responsibility.

Perhaps I'm too skeptical of curiouskarmadog but I do want some contribution out of that slot and to see some coherent scumhunting rather than letting him skate by.

if it hadn't been for CKD's hammer on TKoE then he might not have been lynched given how people were viewing the commuter claim. I don't think CKD is scum in that situation.

The hammer on TKoE was a done deal. I was online and posting and had already committed to hammering. No other lynch was going to happen D1 so it's null. I dislike that he interrupted a conversation I was having with TKoE though.

---

@curiouskarmadog -

you got a pass for another day since we're not lynching outside of Aj The Epic and Raskolnikov today. I suggest you use the time to convince me why I shouldn't hang you tomorrow.

For whoever asked my OW case is based in his interaction with Aj (who I think is scum). He denies one exists but coming into today his scum "reads" were Aj and myself. Aj a claimed doc that wasn't killed last night. But he chooses to vote me over Aj? Bullshit.

I had two suspects, you and Aj The Epic. You were the stronger read so I voted you. I have a hard time believing that you think my best play when one of my partners got caught is to lynch the other one (TKoE).

You voted me when I had fifteen posts. Now I have fifty-four and several of them have impacted the game in very strong ways. You are coming across to me like you can't find new suspects and are tunneling because you know I won't get lynched and this is giving you something to do.

---

I agree with traitor is definitely a possibility and actually makes sense considering the eleven player setup. Alchemist is a stronger townread for the push on Raskolnikov as well as his posting towards the end of the day. Elyse is also a stronger townread for that paranoia of petroleumjelly - I had similar thoughts during the night phase.

I'm not discounting Raskolnikov bussing but I'm switching to Aj The Epic. Reasoning being that I don't see a scum-Raskolnikov counterclaiming a doomed townie (Aj The Epic) and putting himself on the line for no reason at all. But I

could

see him bus a doomed partner. So, Aj The Epic is the right lynch. In the event that Raskolnikov is town, Aj The Epic is still the right lynch.

BUT, I don't want this day to end without a full discussion first. I especially want more content from curiouskarmadog.

@Raskolnikov -

I want to see a full claim and night action results.

---

@OceanWind, how did Llama become a strong townread?

I found TKoE's L-1 vote on him opportunistic. He had never said anything about Llamafluff before but suddenly hopped on once Xtoxm prodded him on it. While the possibility of bussing exists, the way he slinked on the wagon and the reasoning he gave looks like he wanted to hop on inconspicuously. Llamafluff's posts towards the end also looked very genuine and were a good part of why I didn't want to lynch him.

[OceanWind]

I had been reading CKD as town, but that dropped off somewhat by the end of the day (though the hammer was good, IMO).

No, it wasn't. It was anti-town. I was getting information from TKoE (who wasn't going to not get lynched as deadline approached) and curiouskarmadog shut off that conversation and hammered all of a sudden.

My hesitation is that he could just be anti-town as town. I just finished a game where another player acted in the most anti-town manner possible and actually winded up being town.

[OceanWind]

You bussed who again?

Also you know where you can stick that pass right? Why would I care to convince you of anything?

TKoE wouldn't have been lynched if I a) not brought up the possibility of swapping our votes from Llamafluff to TKoE, and b) intervened at the last moment when Llamafluff was just about to be hammered.

It's clear you haven't read the thread. Read it. I'm town. And you should care about convincing me not to lynch you because if you are town, getting mislynched isn't a pro-town move.

[OceanWind]

The best way to convince me is to explain yourself and your actions clearly. ISO me and answer all the questions that you missed.

[OceanWind]

Also bottom line. That hammer means jack. As scum I would have hammered him too. Also someone had said they would have hammered so.... What you be red to look at is doesn't make since given what is on the table that I a scum vs OW. Look at his actions versus what he is saying. If Aj flips scum and we are still here, this is your remaining scum

The hammer means jack I agree. Some others townread you for it.

What I don't like is that you hammered before the discussion was over and we could have gotten more info out of TKoE.

[OceanWind]

Also Captain Slips you seem pretty confident you and I will be around tomorrow. Why is that?

Yeah thought you would ignore this.

I ignored it because it was a pointless question. You'll be alive because you are either mafia or anti-town. I'll likely be alive because either mafia would want us to get distracted as a TvT or because you think killing me would paint a target on your back.

Now answer my questions.

[OceanWind]

1. Post 324
2. Post 338
3. Also want an explanation for your vote on me in Post 315.

[OceanWind]

Okay, and what was this research that you did in order to find out that your role and Aj The Epic's won't co-exist?

[OceanWind]

I don't think bodyguard + doc in the same setup is viable. Aj The Epic claimed at L-1. Raskolnikov softed on D1 and counterclaimed today. It's pretty obviously Aj The Epic is the scum here.

UNVOTE: curiouskarmadog
VOTE: Aj The Epic

That's L-1.

curiouskarmadog disappeared the minute I pointed out the questions he missed (as expected) so I'm not convinced he's town. He can hang tomorrow if the game is still going on.

[OceanWind]

Supreme Overlord is the only other player I could see being potentially mafia. There's an outside chance Raskolnikov is bussing but if it is, it was very well done. Everyone else is varying degrees of town.

[OceanWind]

I am on my fucking phone asshat. I said I would post more when I can get to a computer. If you REALLY a wanted answer why did you put someone at -1. More bullshit from you. Aj will hang today what is the hurry? Did I all of the sudden stop looking like scum to you? Actions > words.

I changed my mind about wanting an answer. It's clear that you have no intention of answering so I've made up my mind to lynch Aj The Epic, then lynch you.

Phone posting is not an excuse when you could have answered the questions instead of posting what you just did. Instead of answering, you decide to complain about being on a phone, talk about something else, and call me an asshat.

You are welcome to answer (if you want), but I gave you enough chances to convince me that you are town. You blew them all.

[OceanWind]

The most annoying part is the possibility that you are town. If I were 100% on you being being scum, I'd just lynch you and get it over with. But you are acting like a version of Pisskop from Mutant Mafia - anti-town and useless.

[OceanWind]

Those are not answers. How did you manage to post those on a phone but couldn't answer my questions?

Sorry, not convinced. You can hang tomorrow.

[OceanWind]

This is my final reach-out to you if you are actually somehow town here: I'm town. It's obvious to everyone with a brain. I pushed the idea of lynching TKoE, and at the last minute intervened before a hammer on Llamafluff was cast turning the D1 lynch from a likely town lynch to a scum one.

Aj The Epic is getting lynched today. My remaining pool of non-townreads are (curiouskarmadog, Supreme Overlord, Raskolnikov). I have reservations on both of the last two being scum.

If you want to avoid being lynched tomorrow, focus on convincing me that I'm wrong. Consistently ignoring my questions isn't doing that.

An intelligent human being shouldn't need to be asked five or six times to answer the same questions. So, what's wrong with you?

[OceanWind]

I don't buy that curiouskarmadog is as dumb as the show he's putting on. This seems more like an effort to try to get townread by attacking someone no one else suspects and create a distraction. That would hopefully give off the impression that he truly believes what he's saying.

There are five obvtown players in the game: me, Xtoxm, Llamafluff, Alchemist, and Elyse. With nine alive, that's a majority. Mafia cannot win unless they do something outrageous and curiouskarmadog's behavior fits the bill.

His play towards the end of D1 falls under that mold as well. He's been non-useful for most of the day phase, doesn't vote any wagon until the very last minute at which point he cuts off conversation to hammer TKoE. The rest of play is weak and forgettable especially considering he has the second most posts in the game.

[OceanWind]

I think he's not answering my questions on purpose in order to create a distraction about them. It won't take long or necessitate a computer to explain "I voted Xtoxm because ___," I voted OceanWind early in the game because _____."

[OceanWind]

@Xtoxm -

can you help me figure out curiouskarmadog here? At some points in the game, I'm getting a similar feel from him as I did from Varsoon in Mutant Mafia. It seems like he's being annoying on purpose because he thinks he can create a distraction. I can't see why he's able to post so much content but not answer three simple questions unless he's doing it to be a distraction on purpose like what Varsoon claimed to do in Mutant. Where's your head at re: curiouskarmadog? No one else really makes sense as an Aj The Epic partner either so that just strengthens my read.

[OceanWind]

@OW
Why is Alchemist town?

Play around TKoE lynch. Llamafluff was nearly hammered but he stayed to switch. That's the sort of the thing scum find hard to do because if you nearly have a mislynch set in stone, you don't want to give it away. It was at a time where he would know that if he switched, TKoE was really going to get lynched.

That and I thought his reason for townreading me was pretty accurate and the timing as well.

Do you disagree or you just wanted to get my reasoning out there?

[OceanWind]

@Elyse -

This post?

Was your lack of a N0 target intentional or due to "forgetfulness?"

I really don't believe this claim, not only because of the lack of a N0 target but because he claims to have protected the very same player he was trying to lynch without having to counterclaim. If a bodyguard had been NK'd it probably would have been an autolynch for AJ since nobody would believe a doc and bodyguard are in the same game.

I do think that a bodyguard in this setup using their N1 is unwise and I disagree that Raskolnikov is scummy at all - I don't see the motive to counterclaim Aj The Epic considering Aj was going down anyways (unless Rask and Aj are partners).

But Alchemist is right that Rask screwed up protecting Aj. I just don't think it makes Rask scum.

[OceanWind]

* That should read "bodyguard using their protect N0 is unwise."

[OceanWind]

While you are here, mind going over your read on curiouskarmadog?

[OceanWind]

I imagine your questions will require me to look back at shit.

You could have said this the first time and saved a lot of useless arguments. You have time so get to it when you can.

Also, re-read the thread again.

[OceanWind]

And again if you really think I am scum as you want everyone to believe why are you urging me to reread the thread? It doesn't make since.

Why are you acting like a newb? I don't

know

your alignment. I've been trying pretty hard to figure you out here. I want to see whether your suspicion of me is based on honestly not reading the thread or scum that locked in on one person and has trouble organically changing their reads. Your suspicion of me when I had fifteen posts is one thing. Your continued suspicion after the rest of my posting as well as my role in TKoE's lynch strains of bounds of credibility.

Your actual reasons are ridiculous. Like the above quote. Anyone who's played mafia long enough knows that nothing is definite. Yes, I think you are scum. Yes, I want you to read the thread so I can refine my read on you in case I'm wrong. I'm giving you a chance here.

[OceanWind]

The problem I have is that you think some really stupid things are scumtells. I read Porochaz's large theme game and you accused someone of being scum because they have many townreads. I just don't know if a similar thing is happening here or whether you are actually mafia faking it.

[OceanWind]

The fact that a commuter even exists means there is a role that scum is trying to counter unless its a complete red herring (doubtful).

Mind elaborating on this? I'm not clear as to what you are saying.

---

Undecided on massclaim. I see Xtoxm's point but there's also the fact that PRs claiming now means the bodyguard has solid target(s). Not claiming could mean that the mafia may have picked up on PR tells that the bodyguard didn't, giving them an advantage.

I'll sleep on it.

[OceanWind]

Townreading Xtoxm, Eylse and Llama to varying extents. Alchemist is really stubborn tunneling town and his actions would be ridiculously bold from scum (and would screw him if his wagon on me actually went through).
I'm not sure about OW and CKD, and SO I was scumreading yesterday and hasn't changed much today.

What makes things difficult is that all 3 of SO OW and CKD were on similar positions with the TKoE wagon.
OW brought TKoE to L-1 then unvoted, SO then brought TkoE to L-1 and finally CKD hammered about an hour before the deadline. I expect a scum to late-hop on for towncred if it looks like the lynch will 100% go through on their scumbuddy. I think CKD looks good from the last minute hammer as I think scum might risk waiting that tiny bit of time (~1h?) for the chance of no lynch; OW and SO are looking worse from their involvement. Only one of them can actually be scum though, and I'm not sure how to narrow it down yet.

You are looking at votes without reading what the momentum of the thread looks like.

1. The wagon on Llamafluff switched to TKoE only after I brought up the possibility of lynching him. It's not the position on the wagon that matters but how discussion evolved.
2. I unvoted because I was going to be there at deadline to hammer whereas other people may be asleep or not present. So, I had Supreme Overlord place his vote there so he could leave while I waited for the claim before hammering.
3. curiouskarmadog's last minute hammer was redundant. I already said I would hammer. Llamafluff also said it. There was no possibility of a no lynch.

I'm not sure how you could possibly come to these conclusions if you read the thread thoroughly. Please read it again and post your thoughts especially towards the end of D1.

[OceanWind]

Raskolnikov, read the thread very carefully from Post 378 onwards until the end of the day (Post 432) and let me know your updated thoughts.

Your analysis was extremely shallow and missing a lot of nuances and I want to check if it's coming simply from missing things because you didn't follow the thread.

[OceanWind]

First off, curiouskarmadog better hang for that hammer no matter what Aj The Epic flips especially if a power role is killed tonight. We were discussing the possibility of a mass-claim and hadn't made a decision yet and he cuts off conversation

in a similar way

he did D1.

Him pretending as if he was "right" about TKoE stretches credibility. He made a passing comment in Post 257 that he never followed up on and suddenly hammered out of nowhere when I was trying to get additional information out of TKoE AND two intents to hammer had already been posted so it seems more like a desire to be on the wagon.

His continued insistence that I'm mafia while ignoring the big picture of what happened yesterday around the TKoE lynch is the most compelling evidence against him. A great tool I use to figure out mafia: ridiculous hard-headedness. I wasn't obvtown at the beginning of the game. Xtoxm suspected me. Alchemist probably had no read on me. But when I reacted in a town way, both of their reads evolved. When I helped swing the Llamafluff lynch to TKoE, many other people's reads evolved. Finally, when Raskolnikov suspected me and I pointed out what he missed, his read evolved. That's how I figured the first two were town and that Rask was probably town.

curiouskarmadog is not taking in information and processing it despite it being presented to him. He just ignored all the points I brought up and just continues pushing that I'm mafia. That's how I know he has no interest in actually reading me or figuring out the game.

@Raskolnikov -

considering we didn't massclaim, I suggest protecting obvtown that's also on top of the game like Xtoxm.

[OceanWind]

he is either scum or tunneling.

This part is inaccurate as I've given curiouskarmadog multiple chances to change my mind. I told him

exactly

what to do if he was town to show me that he's indeed town and that is to answer my questions. All he was able to say was "gut" regarding his Xtoxm vote and no answer as to his initial vote on me. He's not taking the chances I'm giving him and instead complaining that I'm tunneling.

He's trying to put up an act of "let me tunnel on obvious town, people will think I actually believe what I'm saying and might dismiss the argument as TvT and no one's going to follow the details." I hope that in this playerlist, people are thorough enough to go through everything that we've said and lynch curiouskarmadog tomorrow.

Scum who aren't very skilled have a hard time organically changing their reads. curiouskarmadog fits that mold perfectly. He doesn't know where else to attack so he sticks with his D1 read despite all evidence to the contrary.

I probably won't get killed because that'll point a shining light on curiouskarmadog. Besides killing me means he has to fake new reads.

However,

if by some chance I do get killed tonight, please look into curiouskarmadog, don't let him get away.

[OceanWind]

Good game everyone. I enjoyed playing this one. I was pretty sure there was a third mafia so the endgame was a pleasant surprise. Especially liked petroleumjelly's analysis towards the end of D1 as it made me go back and look for interactions. Making a case using pre-flip associatives and winding up being right is fulfilling. Xtoxm was as accurate as usual and I'm glad we switched over from Llamafluff in the nick of time. Was going back and forth several times towards the end of D1. Found this to be an enjoyable playerlist in general. Hope to see many of guys again.

[OceanWind]

@Equinox -

could you explain the idea behind the setup numbers a bit more? Why eleven rather than thirteen or nine? At a glance, it seems like eleven players with two mafia is townsided by default. Typically, I see nine player games with two mafia so right away there's an extra lynch that the mafia need to get through. For most of the game, I was speculating about either a third mafia, or a serial killer, or a traitor. I'm also not sure if any scumteam could have gotten four mislynches but that's probably a result of this town being very competent.

[OceanWind]

Can we see the mafia private topic?