Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

[iraonavp]

VOTE: BirdythePhoenix

I'd prefer my cinnamon rolls remained unburnt, please refrain from igniting them.

[iraonavp]

hawkleader3's opening was awkward as hell and how he immediately backed off was terribad.

These were my immediate thoughts when I read the page 1 exchange between hawkleader3 and Syndesis. In particular, I disliked 20, as Syndesis did not give what was in my opinion an adequate reason for voting him. It felt as if hawkleader3 over-anticipated the validity of Syndesis' push, due to knowledge of his own scum alignment!

Additionally, in 64, I do not agree with his assessment of MoosyDoosy's trio of posts. It appears he is finding poor excuses to place a vote, which is consistent with his earlier awkward stances around voting.

VOTE: hawkleader3



Indeed, I also dislike Metrion's 65. His RV seems out of place considering that there is currently a serious wagon already taking place.

Anyway, exactly what is scummy about having a chipper first post, Tool?

This soft defense of hawkleader3 is unaccompanied by any kind of clarification of his stance.

I feel that, especially if hawkleader3 is scum-aligned, Metrion is likely to be scum-aligned!



I believe both MoosyDoosy and Syndesis to be town-aligned, their posts seem easygoing and to represent a casual train-of-thought process which is more likely to come from town.

Toolenduso seems guarded, as if he has something to hide.

[iraonavp]

Then there's the fact that we're in RVS, which also explains his entrance.

Just to clarify, you're referring to being in RVS at the time of the posts which are now being analyzed, right?
Most would say that we're talking about motivations and analysis now, which would mean it isn't random any more -- though there may still be pockets of quirk.

What do you think about Swordsworth's entrance, does it make him likely to be scum-aligned or town-aligned?

Personally, I think it makes him likely to be town-aligned. The idea of him trying to participate in RVS while not understanding how it is beneficial worries me at first, but 46 sounds very genuine. I feel that if Swordsworth was scum-aligned, he would be afraid to admit that he didn't understand why RVS (a site custom) was used.

[iraonavp]

That looks like L-2?

Yes, I believe so!

[iraonavp]

Even put aside the possibility that hawk is lying about his claim, and just think about this. His claim is more likely than not going to be verified one way or another within the next day phase or two. We could get a counterclaim, or he could be NK'ed, or he could prevent a NK, or somebody could get a result on him, or so on and so forth. Him being NK'ed is probably the most likely.

So why lynch him?

I essentially agree with this. While there are a few things that stand out to me as suspicious about hawkleader3's claim, I expect it to resolve itself soon enough that it's not worth taking the risk of lynching him in case he's town-aligned.

UNVOTE: hawkleader3

[iraonavp]

Open498 - A total of four posts before replacement. Fire Goon. Punctuation is different, phrasing is different, etc. Latest game before leaving the site. No introduction post.
Micro280 - 12 posts before replacement. Town aligned.

Hello guys, I always like to give a short introduction of myself at the start of the game because I feel weird not doing it. I am hawkleader3, but you may call me by any name that pops into your head at the moment or whatever is easiest to type (Hawk, HL3, Hawkleader, Confucius, etc.). I have played a total of 3.5 newbie games (.5 was when I replaced in as scum but the town got a perfect win. The game ended in a week), but since then, I have been off of this site for a good 6 months, so this could be considered my return. This is my first micro game thus also being my first game using this setup (which I think I will like BTW) and I wish everyone the best of luck.

Game lines up.
N1360(SE) - 26 posts. Town. Survived to endgame. Another introduction post. asdf asdf asdf too bored


===

Hawk, you've been on mobile for much of this game, I presume? I'd keep going but I'm damn lazy. Everything lines up with town!hawk. I'd recommend an unvote.

I'm not entirely sure what aspect of this analysis made you think hawkleader3 was likely to be town-aligned, would you mind explaining in greater detail?

In particular it bothers me how your stance seems to change from thinking that he is most likely scum-aligned, to thinking that he is most likely town-aligned, with what seems like vacuous reasoning in the interim. I also question the relevance of hawkleader3's typing speed, but I can see where you were coming from in terms of determining whether or not he pretyped his post.

[iraonavp]

Yes we should lynch hawk when he was un CC'd. Just the fact that Mafia will make him a target off the bat gives us more incentive to kill him ASAP.

That sounds awfully reckless, I do not endorse this plan!

I would consider voting Metrion at this point, as I believed him to be scum-aligned from his entrance post and I would like to hear more from him. Unfortunately he appears to be V / LA until Friday.



VOTE: FA_Q2

I prefer this vote, instead.

Respond to what?

He has not constructed a 'push.' Just a rather naked vote and a post that says 'this.' Neither is something that is possible to respond to until he actually gives a reason or a case for the vote.

Here, FA_Q2 expresses indignation towards Syndesis' vote. I feel this is likely to originate from a scum-aligned player feeling that their own play is sound and getting frustrated at an unexplained (and in their opinion unjustified) vote.

By all means - construct a case.

He wants Syndesis to give more reasoning behind her push, perhaps because he is uncomfortable with the unexplained vote despite it carrying little weight at this point. Scum-aligned players may be less at-ease with votes on themselves as they have more incentive to survive. He wants Syndesis to attack him with arguments that he can defuse, as he is eager to release even the slightest pressure of a single vote!

[iraonavp]

I mean, I get frustrated when people push me without a case as either alignment, so that might be just null. That said, scum caught for the wrong reasons also tend to get frustrated, but I've seen no sign of that so far.

I feel that his response has constituted more than just frustration, in particular premature defensiveness. His repeated insistence that you explain your vote, and that an unexplained accusation cannot be responded to, show how much he wants to answer your accusation to prevent his wagon from progressing any further.

You should but you are going to need more than a naked vote to do so.

By all means - construct a case.

Additionally, in posts like this tone is somewhat passive-aggressive, and I believe he is attempting to hide his frustration. This makes me think that FA_Q2 is perhaps trying to hide his fear of being voted which is even greater than he is letting on.

[iraonavp]

I mean, I get frustrated when people push me without a case as either alignment, so that might be just null. That said, scum caught for the wrong reasons also tend to get frustrated, but I've seen no sign of that so far.

I feel that his response has constituted more than just frustration, in particular premature defensiveness. His repeated insistence that you explain your vote, and that an unexplained accusation cannot be responded to, show how much he wants to answer your accusation to prevent his wagon from progressing any further.

You should but you are going to need more than a naked vote to do so.

By all means - construct a case.

Additionally, in posts like this tone is somewhat passive-aggressive, and I believe he is attempting to hide his frustration. This makes me think that FA_Q2 is perhaps trying to hide his fear of being voted which is even greater than he is letting on.

Strange considering that there is zero frustration in that post at all. I expect everyone to explain their votes. Naked votes are more than worthless - they are scummy. They completely avoid purpose and reasoning - things you use later in the game to find scum.

Further, I was directly asked to address the vote. I responded. Considering that I called out hawk for ignoring pressure on him I don't see how you would expect me to act otherwise.

Apologies, I believe I may have read more into the tone of your posts than was actually there. And I can see how the question you were asked about the vote was not exactly a good one.

There's something else... a difficult to describe feeling bothering me with your posts which I can't really define, but I will unvote for now as I believe my previous vote to have lost most of its basis.

UNVOTE: FA_Q2

[iraonavp]

Being wrong doesn't make someone scum, unless they're scum being wrong on purpose to try to make people think they're not scum.

What is this in reference to? I must have missed some context here.

[iraonavp]

I feel that Moosy's sarcastic posts and self-votes are more likely to come from a town-aligned player frustrated with accusations leveled at them. I simply do not see a scum-aligned player placing a vote on themselves or playing so... suicidally. While I do not think that this is a beneficial outlet or good play, I do not think it is worth lynching them simply to make them change their behavior.

[iraonavp]

davesaz, thoughts on iranoavp?

He might have difficulty answering that question, considering how "iranoavp" is not a player in this game! Although it appears he worked it out.

[iraonavp]

Given that I am town, your attempt to discredit my scumhunting could mean you're scum.

I would say that this is another (nicely placed) example of what toolenduso has previously described as "sowing seeds of doubt".

How confident is your belief that toolenduso's alleged attempt to discredit your scumhunting is likely to come from a scum-aligned player?

[iraonavp]

Your utter inability to understand what I'm saying might be because you're town.

I'll have to consider that a little further though.

I do not exactly understand this perspective. In this example, how would davesaz's utter inability to understand what you're saying make him more likely to be town-aligned?

I would think that town-aligned players could misunderstand as easily as scum-aligned players, and I'm not sure if your post was some kind of offhand and sarcastic comment.

[iraonavp]

davesaz, thoughts on iranoavp?

I noticed many of his posts have "I feel like" or similar language, which struck me as strange. Not much if any questioning of things, more commentary on things. It makes me want to go back and reread it all with more context to see if any of those feels were controversial or if it's an attempt to blend in.

There's nothing to be inferred from the words I use, I assure you! I would agree with your assessment that I have posted more commentary than questions. What conclusion have you drawn from these observations?

[iraonavp]

That makes no sense. Scum can make up reasons just as easily as town could, and they'll often look better because they're paying attention to how people read them.

Placement of the votes and motivation matter a hundred times more than reason.

I don't like this post one bit.

You cast doubt on Dave's statement but fail to complete your statement. If placement mattered so much more then why did you not bother to address those that jumped on where you consider scummy placement? I would also state you are completely incorrect. Placement matters but scum can just as easily manipulate that as they can come up with reasoning. Reasoning is a powerful tool for town - as the game rolls on scum tend to reveal themselves with inconsistent reasoning and in the motivations behind those reasons.

Speaking of which:

VOTE: toolendeuso

You uh

Wanna expand on that thought?

not really but i probably have to later

No, you really need to now. A vote is worthless without something behind it to get more people to vote.

I disagree with this post on a theory level. If all the scum-aligned players just gave reasons for their votes (not a difficult thing to do), then on this basis they'd be indistinguishable from the town-aligned players! If you use such a rigid rubric for determining a player's alignment, I feel you will more frequently entrap players of any alignment who simply don't feel like playing by the rules or giving reasons for their votes.

With that said, VOTE: Metrion! Let's turn this into a fun game where Metrion flounders about and continues to post scummy things in an attempt to grasp how iraonavp worked out his alignment, while votes pile up on him!

[iraonavp]

iranoavp or whatever his name is needs to be looked at again. And by that, I mean his ISO. I said he was no-lynch pile for today but that may change. His vote onto hawkleader3 might have been an opportunity to jump onto an easy wagon and his subsequent jump onto the next popular wagon with terrible reasoning was highly suspect.

I would agree with you that hawkleader3 was an "easy wagon", but what about this makes me likely to be scum-aligned? I would consider easy wagons as those on players who appear scum-aligned, where else would I be expected to vote if you were to consider me likely to be town-aligned?

I do not think that my subsequent jump was onto "the next popular wagon", it had but one vote before I jumped. I would agree with you that my reasoning was less than impressive, this was why I unvoted!

[iraonavp]

I disagree with this post on a theory level. If all the scum-aligned players just gave reasons for their votes (not a difficult thing to do), then on this basis they'd be indistinguishable from the town-aligned players! If you use such a rigid rubric for determining a player's alignment, I feel you will more frequently entrap players of any alignment who simply don't feel like playing by the rules or giving reasons for their votes.

It is not a matter of rigidity and I don't know where you are pulling that from. They are not indistinguishable because you can analyze their reasoning. Random voting is impossible to analyze and makes determining alignment impossible.

Yes, but what I am trying to convey is that this analysis is ultimately pointless. Perhaps you may determine how logical they are, but you won't determine whether or not they are scum-aligned.

If it entraps more players who 'don't feel like giving reasons' then that is a site meta problem. Meta that would need to be addressed anyway considering that it gimps town hardcore.

I would not consider poor "site meta" a rebuttal for this counterargument. We aren't all cyborgs, and as such perfect play will be rarely achieved. Far from it, in fact, I would expect players to play with a variety of playstyles and skill levels!

Theory analysis really is a distraction though.

I agree, there doesn't seem to be much point in further discussion of this topic considering how we appear to disagree fundamentally. Let it be made clear however that I do not endorse your suspicion of players who vote without reason, but I (somewhat ironically) do not think that you are scum for what I consider this poor reasoning.

[iraonavp]

Oh, I nearly forgot that I was playing in this game! It's lucky I haven't been prodded yet, I am catching up now.

I'm not sure if this is town frustration or scum just wanting someone FoSing them out of the game. Either way I don't find the strange style Moosy adopted to be alignment indicative, it's different which initially made me lean town really, but apparently they've admitted their capable of doing this as scum so I just haven't dwelled on it when considering their alignment.

Is there any other aspect of Moosy's play which you think gives hints to their alignment, or do you have absolutely no clue either way?

[iraonavp]

"Free of responsibility" is the kind of wording you would use when indicating that you would be in trouble. Which implies that moosy would be flipping town, no?

Responsibility boils down to, at the flip, whatever his alignment is, the people on the wagon will typically answer to it. The general idea being that whoever votes for the person being lynched has a higher chance of being scum because a) they're bussing for town cred, or b) they're aiding in a mislynch. You should know that. You do know that.

I still don't quite understand this. Someone not voting on the lynch could be held responsible for ignoring the wagon, even if it was on either town or scum. I mean, you might as well not play if you want to be completely free of this kind of "responsibility"!

[iraonavp]

Yup, lots of accusations of scumminess, not a lot of good articulate reasons. Matched with the activity level of a koala. Legendary game underway here.

Taking action to remedy the problem rather than complaining is the way to fix this.

I'd like at least Iraonavp to post more, it's not fair to put on your theatrics then leave the audience waiting.

My sincerest apologies.

CN & FA are interesting at least.

How is FA_Q2 "interesting"?

Speaking of:

Chaotic may seem a bit more Town after that last post? It looks like he didn't fully get Tool's inference that he scum slipped by assuming Moosy would flip town, or at least didn't answer that explicitly instead droning on about why scum go on lynches. The inference itself was garbage because the scenario painted that he was responded to was that Moosy was "lynchbait" and that's how I expected a scum response to be because they'd most likely be full well aware of that.

Or maybe he genuinely didn't get it.

I believe that Chaotic Neutrality's response to toolenduso's post did show understanding of toolenduso's point. I don't think I even understand what you're trying to say here in some parts...

[iraonavp]

I would still like Metrion lynched today!

He's reaching for reasons to defend Chaotic Neutrality in posts like 334 and 346. 334 is just babbling that makes very little sense and then he magically claims to believe that Chaotic Neutrality is town-aligned at the end. I really don't like 346 because it seems an indirect response to who the vote was on.

That said, I don't actually think that Chaotic Neutrality is likely to be scum-aligned, and I would not vote to lynch him. I feel that his responses to pressure looked like genuine town irritation. I don't support his retaliative push on toolenduso, but I think it came from a town-aligned thought process (from reasoning of toolenduso is wrong, therefore he's scum-aligned, which despite being wrong doesn't make Chaotic Neutrality more likely to be scum-aligned). I don't see why a scum-aligned player would push their accuser (if toolenduso was town-aligned, which I feel is likely to be true), since all that would do is convince their accuser that they were more likely to be scum-aligned.

[iraonavp]

Your vote is in a singularly useless place right now. I'm hoping we will soon hear the popping sound that designates your head being pulled out of a dark place.
You really need to at least be playing to your wincon.

Oh wow, Dave is scum.

Is this a serious comment, and if so, how does this post make davesaz scum?

[iraonavp]

Is this a serious comment, and if so, how does this post make davesaz scum?

How does Dave know Moosy's alignment when he asks him to play for his wincon? If Moosy's scum, his wincon isn't to help town.
I admit that this is a bold statement but holy cow (sorry, Cow) it does look like scumslip to me.

As dave saz (heh), Moosy wouldn't be playing to his alignment as scum either in his current state! Although this is debatable, I think that that was the intention of what he said, and that his comment was not a scumslip.

[iraonavp]

"Free of responsibility" is the kind of wording you would use when indicating that you would be in trouble. Which implies that moosy would be flipping town, no?

Responsibility boils down to, at the flip, whatever his alignment is, the people on the wagon will typically answer to it. The general idea being that whoever votes for the person being lynched has a higher chance of being scum because a) they're bussing for town cred, or b) they're aiding in a mislynch. You should know that. You do know that.

I still don't quite understand this. Someone not voting on the lynch could be held responsible for ignoring the wagon, even if it was on either town or scum. I mean, you might as well not play if you want to be completely free of this kind of "responsibility"!

Yes, I also found the fallacy very quickly. But is taking this position alignment indicative?

No, I do not think so.

[iraonavp]

UNVOTE: Metrion
VOTE: FA_Q2

While I remain no less convinced that Metrion is scum-aligned, there is not much time left and I would like to lynch someone today! In its current position, my vote is all but useless. I believe that of the current wagons, FA_Q2 is most likely to be scum-aligned, toolenduso is most likely to be town-aligned, and Chaotic Neutrality is still reasonably likely to be town-aligned.

Metrion, I intend to respond to your post when I get the chance (I am currently rather busy).

[iraonavp]

Oh, I nearly forgot that I was playing in this game! It's lucky I haven't been prodded yet, I am catching up now.

I'm not sure if this is town frustration or scum just wanting someone FoSing them out of the game. Either way I don't find the strange style Moosy adopted to be alignment indicative, it's different which initially made me lean town really, but apparently they've admitted their capable of doing this as scum so I just haven't dwelled on it when considering their alignment.

Is there any other aspect of Moosy's play which you think gives hints to their alignment, or do you have absolutely no clue either way?

When you refer to play are you referring to over-arching style/methodology, or current pushes/reactions/etc?

Why not both? Actually more the second, since the first seems to imply playstyle.

I don't have a firm grasp on them either way, really. Not on my lynch list today if anything.

This strikes me as suspicious, considering how "I haven't dwelled on it when considering their alignment" implies that you have, at least, attempted to grasp Moosy's alignment.

Yup, lots of accusations of scumminess, not a lot of good articulate reasons. Matched with the activity level of a koala. Legendary game underway here.

Taking action to remedy the problem rather than complaining is the way to fix this.

Um yeah, that's why that isn't the only line in that post?

I'm just trying to point out that you don't seem to be active enough to criticize the game's activity without being hypocritical.

CN & FA are interesting at least.

How is FA_Q2 "interesting"?

Why didn't you ask why CN is interesting?

Because in that post you continued on to explain some of your thoughts on CN but not FA.

Speaking of:

Chaotic may seem a bit more Town after that last post? It looks like he didn't fully get Tool's inference that he scum slipped by assuming Moosy would flip town, or at least didn't answer that explicitly instead droning on about why scum go on lynches. The inference itself was garbage because the scenario painted that he was responded to was that Moosy was "lynchbait" and that's how I expected a scum response to be because they'd most likely be full well aware of that.

Or maybe he genuinely didn't get it.

I believe that Chaotic Neutrality's response to toolenduso's post did show understanding of toolenduso's point. I don't think I even understand what you're trying to say here in some parts...

Well Tool himself had no qualms with the statement that CN didn't get his point. Reasoning supplied would be useful for why you think he did, and actually telling me what part you don't understand would be helpful too.

Well, toolenduso basically said that CN was assuming / had hidden knowledge that Moosy was town-aligned due to the phrase "free of responsibility" [from Moosy's lynch]. Then CN responded saying that even if Moosy turned out to be scum-aligned then he could still bear some responsibility in terms of being accused of bussing. I don't believe CN misunderstood what toolenduso was saying at all.

The emote accurately describes how I feel about most of that post from a logical perspective.

I would still like Metrion lynched today!

He's reaching for reasons to defend Chaotic Neutrality in posts like 334 and 346. 334 is just babbling that makes very little sense and then he magically claims to believe that Chaotic Neutrality is town-aligned at the end. I really don't like 346 because it seems an indirect response to who the vote was on.

That said, I don't actually think that Chaotic Neutrality is likely to be scum-aligned, and I would not vote to lynch him. I feel that his responses to pressure looked like genuine town irritation. I don't support his retaliative push on toolenduso, but I think it came from a town-aligned thought process (from reasoning of toolenduso is wrong, therefore he's scum-aligned, which despite being wrong doesn't make Chaotic Neutrality more likely to be scum-aligned). I don't see why a scum-aligned player would push their accuser (if toolenduso was town-aligned, which I feel is likely to be true), since all that would do is convince their accuser that they were more likely to be scum-aligned.

Chaotic may seem a bit more Town after that last post?

The above, for those wishing to know my exact words and not the twisted versions being depicted of declaring him strongly Town aligned only because of that reaction.

No, that is not what I am attempting to convey! You are not stating your convictions up-front, and it seems your defense of CN is subtle and underhanded. I never depicted you as declaring him strongly town-aligned. The way you declare him "a bit more Town" appears to me "magical" as the reasoning behind it makes no sense to me.

Saying we shouldn't waste discussion is reaching to defend a player, I think that's some poor word choice right there.

It constitutes reaching in my opinion because you appear to be resorting to this extremely odd argument to combat a vote on CN, rather than addressing why you think CN is likely to be town-aligned. I strongly doubt you actually are this concerned about a few days of discussion time, especially considering your abysmal opinion of how we've used this time so far.

Reaching implies struggling to make a congruent case. There simply isn't a case at all...Semantics aside, it's lame reasoning to

really not like

(where-ever that arbitrary scaling system places that). Reasoning being that there simply isn't anything scummy about it.

I believe that, from reading between the lines, you are attempting to push an agenda of making CN appear town-aligned. It is "scummy" (as you call it) to play below the radar and be opaque about your motivations and opinions.

(Note: You later go on to state that you read CN as town-aligned, this marks the start of the creation of this congruent case.)

Unless you want to suggest that rushing into things is better for town,

Trying to consolidate a lynch target with 5 remaining days simply does not constitute "rushing into things", whatever way you look at it.

or that asking for more time in any sense is scummy

Not in any sense, but I would argue that the way in which you requested more time makes you more likely to be scum-aligned. This is not worth examining further at this point, so I suggest you do not debate with me here yet.

especially when the person that is circumstantially being defended is read by that player to be town.

I expected this, to some extent. I would like for you to elaborate further on this point. Are there any other reasons why you believe CN is likely to be town-aligned, other than your strange post about him misinterpreting something?

You have implied earlier that you believed that CN was scum-aligned until he posted a certain thing, and not said a whole lot about him looking town-aligned otherwise. Really, from looking at your posts, I get mixed messages. Some parts feel like you think he's scum-aligned and your opinion softened just slightly, yet I got the impression that you were subtly trying to push a town-aligned read on him. My suspicions were confirmed by the above quote.

Back to semantics, that accusation right there, against me for 346, is reaching.

Slander!

[iraonavp]

3 days till deadline, with many people going to be V/LA either stated or not.

While a true statement, it adds nothing to actually moving forward with the game in general. From a player that almost always asks questions, I find this statement rather odd...

I could understand this if davesaz did nothing but make posts like these, but you even acknowledge that he has moved the game forward previously.

You are placing the slightest sliver of suspicion onto davesaz for something that really shouldn't be warranting even this. Even so, this kind of throwing shade is inherently unwarranted because it is usually irrelevant and serves little purpose other than to discredit. I find this action suspicious and become happier with my compromise vote on you.

[iraonavp]

UNVOTE: Metrion
VOTE: FA_Q2

While I remain no less convinced that Metrion is scum-aligned, there is not much time left and I would like to lynch someone today! In its current position, my vote is all but useless. I believe that of the current wagons, FA_Q2 is most likely to be scum-aligned, toolenduso is most likely to be town-aligned,

and Chaotic Neutrality is still reasonably likely to be town-aligned.

Metrion, I intend to respond to your post when I get the chance (I am currently rather busy).

Why?

I explained this previously in 372!

[iraonavp]

3 days till deadline, with many people going to be V/LA either stated or not.

While a true statement, it adds nothing to actually moving forward with the game in general. From a player that almost always asks questions, I find this statement rather odd...

I could understand this if davesaz did nothing but make posts like these, but you even acknowledge that he has moved the game forward previously.

You are placing the slightest sliver of suspicion onto davesaz for something that really shouldn't be warranting even this. Even so, this kind of throwing shade is inherently unwarranted because it is usually irrelevant and serves little purpose other than to discredit. I find this action suspicious and become happier with my compromise vote on you.

Absolutely, asking questions and pointing out inconsistencies in a players posting certainly is scummy, right.

You didn't ask any questions in 412. The fact that you pointed out inconsistencies in davesaz's posting does not make you look more like a scum-aligned player to me. The fact that you approached it in such a subtle and doubtful way (his comment is "odd", not "scummy", or even "null" as I would consider it) makes you look scum-aligned.

A town player would just sit down and not point anything out because that is just so good for town.
/sarcasm

I think this is an example of what I dislike about your posts' tone.

[iraonavp]

I very much do not want a nolynch, so despite reading him as town-aligned I will reluctantly vote for Chaotic Neutrality (or any wagoned player, really) closer to the deadline if we are at risk of a nolynch.

[iraonavp]

I would rather lynch any player other than myself in preference to a nolynch.

hawkleader3, toolenduso, Syndesis are people who would be my least preferred lynches.

I would consider a policy lynch on MoosyDoosy, but I don't think it's likely that he'll flip scum.

[iraonavp]

Can you give some details on the Syndesis read?

They... seem town-aligned? Their posts are genuine and train-of-thought, s that what you want to hear? I am not good at town-aligned reads. Let's say it is a "gut read", if that makes it easier.

This sounds like you have no true scum reads at all?

I don't understand where you're getting this from. I read Metrion, FA_Q2, TheCow and you as scum-aligned to various degrees. The deadline is forcing a compromise lynch.

[iraonavp]

You didn't ask any questions in 412. The fact that you pointed out inconsistencies in davesaz's posting does not make you look more like a scum-aligned player to me. The fact that you approached it in such a subtle and doubtful way (his comment is "odd", not "scummy", or even "null" as I would consider it) makes you look scum-aligned.

That is because his comment is not 'scummy' in and of itself. It was simply odd or out of character from what I consider dave's normal posting.

Then why mention it at all then? I don't believe that you were motivated by pure and innocent curiousity, it seemed intended to cast doubt on davesaz.

I see that pointing out oddities is a problem with you. If town feels the need to lynch me over it then so be it.

I do feel the need!

UNVOTE: Metrion
VOTE: FA_Q2

While I remain no less convinced that Metrion is scum-aligned, there is not much time left and I would like to lynch someone today! In its current position, my vote is all but useless. I believe that of the current wagons, FA_Q2 is most likely to be scum-aligned, toolenduso is most likely to be town-aligned,

and Chaotic Neutrality is still reasonably likely to be town-aligned.

Metrion, I intend to respond to your post when I get the chance (I am currently rather busy).

Why?

I explained this previously in 372!

Your explanation is rather vapid. You point out that his response to being pushed was towny. What response? He has simply ignored being pushed. When has ignoring things been towny?

By his response I mean posts such as 352 and 355. I think that he shows an apathetic town response to being wagoned. I don't see why ignoring things can't be "towny" simply as a matter of principle.

[iraonavp]

Can you give some details on the Syndesis read?

They... seem town-aligned? Their posts are genuine and train-of-thought, s that what you want to hear? I am not good at town-aligned reads. Let's say it is a "gut read", if that makes it easier.

This sounds like you have no true scum reads at all?

I don't understand where you're getting this from. I read Metrion, FA_Q2, TheCow and you as scum-aligned to various degrees. The deadline is forcing a compromise lynch.

How is this a compromise lynch? You want to lynch me and I am one of the leading wagons.

A compromise lynch because Metrion would be my first pick for today's lynch.

[iraonavp]

Hmm, I'm having a problem finding your initial reason for scum reading Metrion.

In my second post, I said that he looked scum-aligned from even his first few posts. His further responses convinced me that I was right. Maybe I didn't elaborate on it as much as I thought I did, but he's really scummy and you should be able to see how anyway.

[iraonavp]

Ugh, sorry everybody, I really should have taken a V/LA. Holiday dinner after holiday dinner after holiday dinner... *shudder*

Oh...what is this, Chaotic? Better him than you?

And why is that, necessarily?

That's quite a bad question, and I think I can answer for him! It is better for any player to have someone else lynched than to be themselves lynched.

Please place a vote (preferably on FA_Q2), we don't have much time left.

[iraonavp]

I may not be around at deadline but I should be here for another 4-ish hours at least. Will anyone be around closer to deadline to hammer?

I should be around closer to deadline!

[iraonavp]

Well, here we have it!

Usually it is customary to request a claim before hammering, so please do not do that again, Swordsworth. I can understand that you might be new to mafia and not know that, though.

[iraonavp]

VOTE: Metrion

[iraonavp]

@iraonavp, what's your read on Metrion right now?

^^ probably like the most prevalent question right now.

Scum-aligned, it was not altered very much by Chaotic Neutrality being revealed as scum-aligned. The soft defense of Chaotic Neutrality makes me suspect Metrion to an even greater extent since Chaotic Neutrality was actually scum-aligned. It makes more sense to me that I was wrong about thinking CN was town-aligned but right about thinking Metrion was scum-aligned.

Also, I can't say I've read all of toolenduso's post, but who can disagree with all those words?!

[iraonavp]

-

@ira, 372

: Could you clarify? Why would scum reach to defend, especially to defend town?

So they look better after Chaotic Neutrality flips town-aligned (I thought that Chaotic Neutrality was town-aligned at that point). That's not relevant after Chaotic Neutrality flipped a scum-aligned role, though.

[iraonavp]

Woops sorry about that.

With swords dead I ran out of scum reads so I've been reading ISO's more. davesaz seems more scummy the more I look at him

1) He's literally only voted twice
2) Most of his posts are just questions and not much else
3) When he actually goes into any real analysis, it's generally when he's defending himself or something he's said with the CN wagon being the exception
4) His vote on CN is very likely to be bussing scum I feel. 427 is a very brief explanation of CN's scumminess, and then 428 and 431 are going into why the people

on CN's wagon are town

, which seems rather, appeasy, for lack of a better word

VOTE: davesaz

I do not endorse this vote.

I did have a few qualms about davesaz previously, but I have come to the conclusion that questioning people intensively is the way he plays to find out people's alignments. Perhaps 4 is the only point that carries any real weight, the way he suddenly gets his vote into action on Chaotic Neutrality is slightly suspicious. But I believe that this is offset by the rest of his play.

[iraonavp]

VOTE: iraonavp

It would really help a lot if you would say why.

I am personally somewhat frustrated at being the main wagon at this point. I feel it is a direct result of me being incorrect (and the most vocally so) about Chaotic Neutrality's alignment.

[iraonavp]

I'll explain later, right now I'm off to eat.

This never happened!

[iraonavp]

Well, here we have it!

Usually it is customary to request a claim before hammering

, so please do not do that again, Swordsworth. I can understand that you might be new to mafia and not know that, though.

Did you really expect a claim from CN at that point in time?

Yes, I've read other games and isn't that usually what happens? Put someone to L-1, then someone else states intent to hammer, then they ask for a claim.

[iraonavp]

Well, here we have it!

Usually it is customary to request a claim before hammering

, so please do not do that again, Swordsworth. I can understand that you might be new to mafia and not know that, though.

Did you really expect a claim from CN at that point in time?

Yes, I've read other games and isn't that usually what happens? Put someone to L-1, then someone else states intent to hammer, then they ask for a claim.

Wasn't deadline within...a couple of hours at that point? It was very likely CN wouldn't get a chance to claim.

That's a good point, I actually did not consider that! I can see where you're getting at with this line of questioning, but no, I would definitely have hammered Chaotic Neutrality even without a claim if the deadline loomed. I would have much preferred a lynch on someone I considered town-aligned than a nolynch. Probably how it would have gone was:

Me: "intent to hammer pls claim cn"
CN: *is afk*
You: "cn is afk"
Me: "k, ]v[]cnVOTE: [v/]"

[iraonavp]

I am personally somewhat frustrated at being the main wagon at this point. I feel it is a direct result of

me being incorrect (and the most vocally so) about Chaotic Neutrality's alignment

.

Do you think this

isn't

scummy?

No, I think scum-aligned players would be subtly supporting Chaotic Neutrality or having inconsistent stances. I was simply wrong, and town-aligned players can be wrong sometimes since they don't much information.

[iraonavp]

@iraonavp, what's your read on Metrion right now?

^^ probably like the most prevalent question right now.

Scum-aligned, it was not altered very much by Chaotic Neutrality being revealed as scum-aligned. The soft defense of Chaotic Neutrality makes me suspect Metrion to an even greater extent since Chaotic Neutrality was actually scum-aligned. It makes more sense to me that I was wrong about thinking CN was town-aligned but right about thinking Metrion was scum-aligned.

Also, I can't say I've read all of toolenduso's post, but who can disagree with all those words?!

So a town read flipping scum actually reinforced your original scum read?

UNVOTE:

I find this very scummy as scum have a reason to avoid looking inconstant. A scum flip on a town read *should* cause you to re-evaluate your original positions, not entrench them. Point out those soft defense posts you infer about. I believe this is the first time you mention them.

That's a large generalization, this is entirely dependent on situation. On d1, I don't try to resolve inconsistencies among my reads (e.g. [x] and [y] probably aren't both scum together but I read them as scum individually). This means that when a read is wrong, it doesn't make the others all wrong too.

Also:

Can you give some details on the Syndesis read?

They... seem town-aligned? Their posts are genuine and train-of-thought, s that what you want to hear? I am not good at town-aligned reads. Let's say it is a "gut read", if that makes it easier.

This sounds like you have no true scum reads at all?

I don't understand where you're getting this from. I read Metrion, FA_Q2, TheCow and you as scum-aligned to various degrees. The deadline is forcing a compromise lynch.

How is this a compromise lynch? You want to lynch me and I am one of the leading wagons.

A compromise lynch because Metrion would be my first pick for today's lynch.

I am reminded about this scummy post. Here you are claiming that one of your scum picks (me) is a 'compromise lynch' which is a false claim IMHO. You labeled me as scum - not as a maybe. I notice that you did not even include any maybes in your statement. You cannot compromise by lynching one of your top scum picks. It really looks like you were positioning yourself for my flip. Considering you were pushing for me at the end I certainly do not see your vote on my wagon as a 'compromise.'

It was a compromise lynch because I considered Metrion more likely to flip scum than you. This is just nitpicky and terrible, I don't see how it could be at all indicative even if I used the wrong term to describe it.

Lastly, the town read on CN was not just wrong - it was completely uncalled for. Had you went with CN as a PL and a bad idea I could have bought that (though I clearly disagreed). There was nothing at all that gave an indication of town on CN.

That's your personal opinion, and I disagree. Of course you aren't going to be able to see indications of CN being town-aligned after he's flipped scum-aligned. But from my perspective yesterday, he appeared town-aligned.

I know you mentioned:

VOTE: iraonavp

It would really help a lot if you would say why.

I am personally somewhat frustrated at being the main wagon at this point. I feel it is a direct result of me being incorrect (and the most vocally so) about Chaotic Neutrality's alignment.

And I understand being frustrated in this circumstance if you really are town. However, it is obvious that you, defending CN far more than CN himself, would be the number one candidate out the gate this day for many people. I can say that your position on CN is simply a part of why I am having issues with your slot.

That's shallow. It makes me a much easier mislynch, since most of this town seems to have difficulty getting past my defending of a scum-aligned player.

I'm also not surprised that Metrion hasn't voted me yet. My town-aligned flip will reflect very badly on him, and he's scared to play a part in it.

[iraonavp]

hawkleader3's opening was awkward as hell and how he immediately backed off was terribad.

These were my immediate thoughts when I read the page 1 exchange between hawkleader3 and Syndesis. In particular, I disliked 20, as Syndesis did not give what was in my opinion an adequate reason for voting him. It felt as if hawkleader3 over-anticipated the validity of Syndesis' push, due to knowledge of his own scum alignment!

Additionally, in 64, I do not agree with his assessment of MoosyDoosy's trio of posts. It appears he is finding poor excuses to place a vote, which is consistent with his earlier awkward stances around voting.

VOTE: hawkleader3



Indeed, I also dislike Metrion's 65. His RV seems out of place considering that there is currently a serious wagon already taking place.

Anyway, exactly what is scummy about having a chipper first post, Tool?

This soft defense of hawkleader3 is unaccompanied by any kind of clarification of his stance.

I feel that, especially if hawkleader3 is scum-aligned, Metrion is likely to be scum-aligned!

I believe both MoosyDoosy and Syndesis to be town-aligned, their posts seem easygoing and to represent a casual train-of-thought process which is more likely to come from town.

Toolenduso seems guarded, as if he has something to hide.

VOTE: Metrion

Thoughts?

I don't get the implication here. I haven't said "if hawk flips town metrion is 1000000% clear conftown", and that isn't implied at all by what I've said.

Metrion was subtly whiteknighting a town member here to avoid awkwardly joining the wagon and looking bad after the flip, rather than trying to dissolve the wagon on his partner.

It's also a very small part of my scum-aligned read on Metrion and in the infancy of my suspicion of him.

[iraonavp]

Well, here we have it!

Usually it is customary to request a claim before hammering

, so please do not do that again, Swordsworth. I can understand that you might be new to mafia and not know that, though.

Did you really expect a claim from CN at that point in time?

Yes, I've read other games and isn't that usually what happens? Put someone to L-1, then someone else states intent to hammer, then they ask for a claim.

Wasn't deadline within...a couple of hours at that point? It was very likely CN wouldn't get a chance to claim.

That's a good point, I actually did not consider that! I can see where you're getting at with this line of questioning, but no, I would definitely have hammered Chaotic Neutrality even without a claim if the deadline loomed. I would have much preferred a lynch on someone I considered town-aligned than a nolynch. Probably how it would have gone was:

Me: "intent to hammer pls claim cn"
CN: *is afk*
You: "cn is afk"
Me: "k, ]v[]cnVOTE: [v/]"

Also, I seriously can't believe no one pointed this out. It's basically caught scum. Only reason why he would know CN was going to claim was if they meditated between each other in the scum chat that CN would claim if it looked like he would be hammered. Him saying that he didn't consider it is just a cover-up for it. Literally just hammer this man down.

Or if I thought he was town-aligned..? People being hammered before they claim is definitely not the norm.

[iraonavp]

So a town read flipping scum actually reinforced your original scum read?

I find this very scummy as scum have a reason to avoid looking inconstant. A scum flip on a town read *should* cause you to re-evaluate your original positions, not entrench them. Point out those soft defense posts you infer about. I believe this is the first time you mention them.

...

Here you are claiming that one of your scum picks (me) is a 'compromise lynch' which is a false claim IMHO. You labeled me as scum - not as a maybe. I notice that you did not even include any maybes in your statement. You cannot compromise by lynching one of your top scum picks. It really looks like you were positioning yourself for my flip. Considering you were pushing for me at the end I certainly do not see your vote on my wagon as a 'compromise.'

These are good points.

No, they're terrible points. ;-;

[iraonavp]

Let's do some pseudo-VCA while I painstakingly reread! How likely is it that...

...CN was bussed?
...scum was setting up to bus CN but did not get a vote on the wagon?
...there's scum on FA's wagon?
...there's scum off both wagons?

I cannot tell. In my opinion, this type of general analysis is less useful than actually considering individual players and their stances, for example what toolenduso did in 477.

[iraonavp]

Kill iraonavp !!

There is no need for such vehemence!

[iraonavp]

That's a large generalization, this is entirely dependent on situation. On d1, I don't try to resolve inconsistencies among my reads (e.g. [x] and [y] probably aren't both scum together but I read them as scum individually). This means that when a read is wrong, it doesn't make the others all wrong too.

And that really misses the point. You are being very defensive of the read itself. What interested me is the fact that you didn't even hesitate and entrenched your read rather than even look at the single positive scum slot and what that might mean. I don't see anything from you about the CN flip in general.

But I did look at what Chaotic Neutrality's scum-aligned flip meant, in my first post of the day!

@iraonavp, what's your read on Metrion right now?

^^ probably like the most prevalent question right now.

Scum-aligned, it was not altered very much by Chaotic Neutrality being revealed as scum-aligned. The soft defense of Chaotic Neutrality makes me suspect Metrion to an even greater extent since Chaotic Neutrality was actually scum-aligned. It makes more sense to me that I was wrong about thinking CN was town-aligned but right about thinking Metrion was scum-aligned.

I am perhaps being defensive of my read because I feel your criticism is unwarranted.

Also:

Can you give some details on the Syndesis read?

They... seem town-aligned? Their posts are genuine and train-of-thought, s that what you want to hear? I am not good at town-aligned reads. Let's say it is a "gut read", if that makes it easier.

This sounds like you have no true scum reads at all?

I don't understand where you're getting this from. I read Metrion, FA_Q2, TheCow and you as scum-aligned to various degrees. The deadline is forcing a compromise lynch.

How is this a compromise lynch? You want to lynch me and I am one of the leading wagons.

A compromise lynch because Metrion would be my first pick for today's lynch.

I am reminded about this scummy post. Here you are claiming that one of your scum picks (me) is a 'compromise lynch' which is a false claim IMHO. You labeled me as scum - not as a maybe. I notice that you did not even include any maybes in your statement. You cannot compromise by lynching one of your top scum picks. It really looks like you were positioning yourself for my flip. Considering you were pushing for me at the end I certainly do not see your vote on my wagon as a 'compromise.'

It was a compromise lynch because I considered Metrion more likely to flip scum than you. This is just nitpicky and terrible, I don't see how it could be at all indicative even if I used the wrong term to describe it.

It's not 'nitpicky' and it has nothing to do with using the 'wrong term.' It has to do with positioning.

I feel I have made it clear enough in my explanations that what I meant to convey was that I still read you as scum-aligned, but would prefer to lynch Metrion. The awkwardness you perceive in my positioning comes only from perceived misuse of the term "compromise lynch", of which it has been established that we interpret it in different ways.

You do scummy things and then demand that they really are not scummy.

That is generally how one responds to inherently flawed accusations.

Lastly, the town read on CN was not just wrong - it was completely uncalled for. Had you went with CN as a PL and a bad idea I could have bought that (though I clearly disagreed). There was nothing at all that gave an indication of town on CN.

That's your personal opinion, and I disagree. Of course you aren't going to be able to see indications of CN being town-aligned after he's flipped scum-aligned. But from my perspective yesterday, he appeared town-aligned.

I cant see 'indications' because his ISO was essentially blank.

That said, I don't actually think that Chaotic Neutrality is likely to be scum-aligned, and I would not vote to lynch him. I feel that his responses to pressure looked like genuine town irritation. I don't support his retaliative push on toolenduso, but I think it came from a town-aligned thought process (from reasoning of toolenduso is wrong, therefore he's scum-aligned, which despite being wrong doesn't make Chaotic Neutrality more likely to be scum-aligned). I don't see why a scum-aligned player would push their accuser (if toolenduso was town-aligned, which I feel is likely to be true), since all that would do is convince their accuser that they were more likely to be scum-aligned.

For reference, this was why I did not support the lynching of Chaotic Neutrality. Even if you do not agree with these reasons, you cannot deny that they exist.

[iraonavp]

Huh. I just realized that I'm more or less townreading everybody on the ira wagon.

Same here, other than TheCow.

[iraonavp]

Seeing as to how early game was me and hawkleader as primary suspicions and CN was pushing onto me, the other Mafia was likely on hawkleader. Which means that someone who gave me an early town read was likely the other Mafia. Just giving me an early town read makes no sense in the first place to be honest.

^^ So looking at the people that town read me, iraonavp looks worse.

That's literally my entire argument for voting him but it makes sense when you think about it.

I don't get this sort of "one of the people with [x] stance is scum-aligned" reasoning, in the same way that I don't really get the "how many scum-aligned players were on the wagon?" kinda thing. It's rather bland PoE, and you could very easily be thrown off by people doing things you don't expect.

I really don't know what to say about reading you as town-aligned, either. I've made efforts to convey my ideas transparently (most of the time), so I don't see what else you'd expect me to say if I really read you that way. Your earlier play seemed like a surefire way to lose credibility and mark yourself down as a policy lynch or a policy vigilante shot, and I don't see that coming from a scum-aligned player.

[iraonavp]

@Moosey iraon doesn't look that bad tbh. Shaky earlygame but his near-deadline and day 2 posts are alright.

I personally disliked Raskolnikov's entrance and eir somewhat dismissive mention of my wagon. While I know that I am town-aligned, I can't shake the notion that e is trying to fight against a wagon which has already progressed reasonably far, to make emself look better if I end up being lynched and flip town-aligned. I think it's a reasonable possibility that e is attempting to "bus" Metrion while not expecting Metrion to actually be lynched today.

The way e mentions Metrion in 572 with an understanding of who Metrion voted for (presumably e looked through Metrion's ISO for this, I'm not sure one would notice that simply from looking through vote counts), and then follows up with an implication that e read Metrion's ISO and got a new perspective on him in 590 bothers me more than perhaps it should.

[iraonavp]

THIS WAGON WILL HIT MAFIA BOYS LET'S GO

I seem to remember you having a similar confidence in hawkleader3 being scum-aligned, and he flipped town!

[iraonavp]

The way e mentions Metrion in 572 with an understanding of who Metrion voted for (presumably e looked through Metrion's ISO for this, I'm not sure one would notice that simply from looking through vote counts), and then follows up with an implication that e read Metrion's ISO and got a new perspective on him in 590 bothers me more than perhaps it should.

Don't be absurd. Why would you think it's a new perspective? I thought it was rather obvious what happened but I'll point it out for you anyways. When I first arrived I had first impressions and skimmed a few people's isos including you, but nothing too thorough. Just to get some notion of the main events and the context for what's happening day 2. Later, before actually voting, I re-read things in more detail to see if I got the wrong feelings from my first impressions. But when it comes to scummiest there wasn't really a difficult choice. Okay maybe you would do things differently but don't pretend what I did was weird when it wasn't.

I don't see why anyone would play this way, but it's a plausible enough explanation to make me reconsider that point as null.

[iraonavp]

aghaghagh this game is so slow. Like literally at this point it's semantics argument between FA_Q2 and iraonvap, ppl just talking random stuff, etc, etc.

Please speed things up and put iraonavp in L-1. iraonvap give a list of reads on everyone in thread and explain your scum reads only. Let's do this boi's.

toolenduso, Syndesis, MoosyDoosy

FA_Q2, raskolnikov, Soapbar, TheCow

Metrion
iraonavp

Really, these reads seem mostly correct to me and mirror my perspective on the game, apart from me being scum-aligned.

Starting with most likely to be scum-aligned:

I have already given detail on how Metrion is scum-aligned, more people should really start seeing this.

I disliked TheCow's plastic scumhunting earlier on d1 (the word speed argument), and I thought that his meta read of hawkleader3 in 140 was all for show and drew no concrete conclusions. He was never able to satisfactorily describe what aspects of hawkleader3's play in other games made him think hawkleader3 was town-aligned.

lolbabe doesn't really address CN's wagon, the soft CN town-aligned read in 378 is awkward. She seems a likely candidate for pushing a counterwagon.

While I have been reading FA_Q2 as scum-aligned for reasons I have previously explained, I don't think both wagons d1 would be on scum-aligned players. I wouldn't lynch him unless it was much later in the game and there weren't many other players alive.

Soapbar doesn't stick out for me. While I disagree with his vote on davesaz and his d1 votes seemed a bit out-of-place, it shows at least that he has an independent perspective. Most of his ISO is absent of content, so it's difficult to read him.

[iraonavp]

THIS WAGON WILL HIT MAFIA BOYS LET'S GO

I seem to remember you having a similar confidence in hawkleader3 being scum-aligned, and he flipped town!

Sorry I'm busy. But can someone check whether iraonavp knew I was being sarcastic on hawkleader or not? ^^

Posts like these were clearly sarcastic:

bro I'm clearly scum that made a slip up trying to continue to push onto hawk which is why I'm trying to cover up for it with obstinateness. This is very clear right now.

hawk is right. D1 is an incredibly good time to deal with Moosy.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: MoosyDoosy

You're telling me that posts like these were not serious either?

I still kinda wanna lynch hawk tbh. Mainly because I want to see if he's scum or town.

Because it is definitely the absolute right move to kill hawk.

It appears my opinion of your playstyle has fallen to previously unknown depths.

[iraonavp]

After he claimed, hawkleader went straight off my radar and I never seriously considered killing him. P sure I made that obvious with my heavy sarcasm. Which makes it strange that iraonavp here is trying to make the argument that I was trying to get hawk killed after he claimed. mMmmm...

This was not very obvious, as shown by 169, 174 and 189. Although on reflection Syndesis did notice it in 181. It is often difficult to convey sarcasm through text!

Therefore... there isn't evidence in this game to suggest that your excessive confidence leads to bad results? Good for you, I guess.

[iraonavp]

We should wait for Metrion's replacement before lynching him though, to prevent the (extremely unlikely) chance that he ends up flipping innocent child or something. We have nothing to lose by being patient.

[iraonavp]

@Everybody on the ira wagon: Why is ira a better lynch than Metrion?

Ira was the most vocal defender of CN. Metrion didn't stick out. I'm not so sure now, though.

Because people who are vocal and defend scum are always scum

This has been discussed, it doesn't seem like you have read the thread in much detail since Syndesis says on this very page that she agrees with the point you have raised.

[iraonavp]

One scum if not both in TheCow/Burning_Earth, Metrion/Flubbernugget, and iraonavp lmao.

What makes you think there are 2 scum-aligned players currently left alive? I ask because you didn't seem so sure in 575.

[iraonavp]

Okay. Because of the deadline and the fact that if I actually read the whole game I'm just going to go "uhhh I dunno" I was going to hope that my cw was more competitive than it was. I was trying to fake a softclaim to absorb an nk on a slot you guys probably aren't going to be able to read

The game state does not match my hopes. This isn't going to work.

It goes without saying then that I a vt

Nice try, I guess? I feel good about this lynch.

Syndesis, you haven't been sounding very sure of yourself lately. What concerns you?

[iraonavp]

Is it bad if I'm only townreading ~2 slots?

Well, yes, considering that there are probably only 2 scum-aligned players remaining!

[iraonavp]

I'm a little worried about Flubber's whole "hey guys I'm hinting that I'm a PR! but actually I'm not tho" thing. Wondered at first why scum wouldn't just claim a PR knowing that they would get lynched.

I think he just tried something different as a last-ditch attempt. Maybe he read some of this thread (or the mafia thread) and saw what hawkleader3 did, and considered how that sets a precedent or something? There's really not much he can do to save himself from this situation so yeah.

[iraonavp]

Christ, okay. Metrion was town-aligned, and this is worrying. It's important that we reconsider our reads because I get the feeling that we're doing something wrong here, and this game could go downhill very quickly for the town if we mislynch today!

I did notice for a bit how fast and painlessly everyone moved from one wagon to the next, but disregarded it thinking that Metrion was scum-aligned. With the knowledge that both wagons were on town-aligned players, I definitely think there was scum-aligned influence here.

I think the "tipping point" at which everyone moved off my wagon and onto the Metrion wagon was when toolenduso expressed doubt towards lynching me, and was pushing Metrion instead (and reasonably hard). As we can now see, he was killed, but it was pretty obvious (to me at least) that he was town-aligned from this.

FA, which of the current wagons do you prefer?

Currently I like metslot more than ira. I do not like the complete lack of voting and soft pushing that he did. He replaced out before giving us any real reaction on this as well and that does not sit well with me.

FA_Q2's reaction to the whole thing was reasonably suspicious. He doesn't go all in on the idea of Metrion being scum-aligned in the same way he was doing for me earlier, with the nitpicking / asking questions thing. The hammer felt a perfunctory and most of 721 feels like he's isolating himself from performing the hammer vote and showing how it's unlikely anyone other than Flubber would be lynched at this point, almost as if he knows Flubber is town-aligned.

Being stuck for so long isn't helping us find the scum.
VOTE: Metrion

I really do not like davesaz's suggestion here that he is voting Metrion pretty much "for the sake of the gamestate". It's raw opportunism behind a thin veil of town-aligned motive, similar to TheCow's vote earlier.

I realize it's still new years weekend and all, but we need to pick it up.

VOTE: iraonavp

I didn't even remember this, but looking back through his ISO it's the same thing, he votes me opportunistically before voting Metrion later as if he's trying to "help the gamestate" or some such nonsense. As if the reason for his vote is "picking things up" rather than because he actually thinks I am scum-aligned.

toolenduso, Syndesis, MoosyDoosy

FA_Q2, raskolnikov, Soapbar, TheCow

Metrion
iraonavp

Looking at this too, he's opportunistically opened himself up to vote either of two town-aligned players widely read as scum-aligned. Even the way that they are grouped in a separate category close together suggests that he can easily swap votes between the two. If he pushes "i want either metrion or iraonavp lynched today", then he's going to get a mislynch.

Syndesis's uncertainty around the lynch, while possibly indicative of a scum-aligned player unwilling to push either wagon knowing that they were mislynches, felt pretty genuine and was possibly her just seeing indications that there was something wrong (?). I really think that even if Syndesis was scum-aligned, it would still be a non-indicative trait of her play.

I think Moosy is town-aligned because his switching across to the Metrion wagon is based on the reasoning that he sees from toolenduso (in 586 and 645), rather than just "oh everyone is moving votes k". He seems like he's actively trying to solve the game and he has not been very opportunistic.

Soapbar doesn't really address the situation yesterday other than by saying that he would rather lynch Metrion than me. There isn't any opportunistic stance manipulation because he hasn't given a read on me earlier and wasn't voting me earlier. That could be indicative of a scum-aligned player trying to stay out of the situation and then place pressure whenever necessary, but I would be hesitant to lynch Soapbar based on this alone. Also considering his earlier push on davesaz which was not at all opportunistic.

Similar with Burning_Earth, he comes in at the perfect time to place pressure on Metrion. He doesn't justify his stance at all and just votes blindly. I really did not like TheCow either, and I think that Burning_Earth is scum-aligned.

Raskolnikov's actions regarding the lynch make me think he was town-aligned. He comes in and pushes Metrion before several other people bandwagon onto the lynch, no real opportunism (but he wasn't in the game therefore not voting me before so perhaps idk?). I think he would've pushed me if he was scum-aligned, since there were already several votes on me and about 2 on Metrion iirc. There's no reason to push for a Metrion mislynch in that situation if I'm much more readily available, he can't have foreseen everyone switching onto Metrion.



So in conclusion, I think davesaz, FA_Q2 and Burning_Earth are very likely to be scum-aligned.

VOTE: davesaz

I think I've been reading his questioning style wrong, and it's non-indicative. It seems like an easy think to fake as a scum-aligned player, it's also easy to manipulate logic to reach incorrect conclusions. The main thing preventing me from voting FA_Q2 is his hard pushing of Chaotic Neutrality on d1, and I don't want to vote Burning_Earth because I don't think I'll get much out of my vote in terms of a response.

[iraonavp]

Do you know I want to push onto you iraonavp?

You made it clear that you wanted to push on me yesterday! I would presume you still feel similarly, since Metrion flipped town-aligned and I was his counterwagon. It's important that we lynch correctly today, so I intend to put in more effort to defend myself from accusations and vote scum-aligned players.

[iraonavp]

@iraonavp: Nice story but completely wrong. My preferred lynch was you, but I thought Metrion was scum. Hindsight shows it wasn't so, but that does not change what I thought.
Someone enticed me off you onto him. That looks to be a good place to go for answers.

I'm presuming toolenduso? He died and flipped town-aligned, I don't see us getting many answers from him! You might mean me, actually, to which I respond:

Firstly, I am displeased at your attempt to deflect some nebulous concept of "responsibility" for a mislynch onto me.

But sure, I thought Metrion was scum-aligned, just like you claim. I was wrong, just like you claim. But your posts don't make me feel like you really thought this. For example: posts 689, 710 and 719, in which you continue to make trivial and perfunctory pushes against Flubbernugget while he's at L-1. The purpose of those posts is to make it look like you're attempting to discern Flubbernugget's alignment when you in fact aren't, because you're already voting him and he's going to be hammered soon.

[iraonavp]

It's important that we lynch correctly today

Why?

Because if we mislynch today, we'll be left at MyLo d4 with few splintery suspects. I predict that town loses if we lynch incorrectly today, we've gone the entirety of d2 focusing on two players who were both town-aligned, and no offense but I doubt that the potentially remaining players have the capacity to turn such a situation around.

[iraonavp]

That brings me right back to moosey and rask.

VOTE: moosey

I tire of this slot getting a pass for no reason. Mossey was also off the one scum we lynched and on the one town we lynched.

What changed your mind on ira?

Nothing really. Those 2 slots are more scummy at this point IMHO.

When I first read this, I was a bit taken aback because from memory I thought you had a strong scum-aligned read on me. When I look at your posts however, you were arguing with me a lot yesterday and pointed out several posts you found indicative of a scum-aligned player, yet you never actually vote me at any point and continue to push others. So while that allays any concerns of your forgetting your read on me or something, it makes me notice and find suspicious how your scumhunting focus isn't followed by your votes.

Also, you don't seem to have learnt anything from Metrion's flip and are pushing the same players. I remember you accusing me of doing that on d2, but I actually think it applies a lot more here!

[iraonavp]

Syndesis, I really am not feeling your Raskolnikov vote at all, and you haven't made much of an attempt to explain why you think he's scum-aligned. I don't know what you expect to happen with that vote but it's not doing anything. If you showed your working here perhaps the game could move forward and maybe we could even make an actual wagon somewhere!

It's also frustrating that most of my scum-aligned reads are not posting!

[iraonavp]

Syndesis, I really am not feeling your Raskolnikov vote at all, and you haven't made much of an attempt to explain why you think he's scum-aligned. I don't know what you expect to happen with that vote but it's not doing anything. If you showed your working here perhaps the game could move forward and maybe we could even make an actual wagon somewhere!

You and Ras are moving with disconcerting sync.

Will case shortly.

Yeah, I actually noticed that as well and it's a bit weird. It's not intentional or anything, I think we're just mostly agreeing on stuff!

That hard townread between ira and Ras mmmm

I don't have such a hard townread on him as he apparently does me. Do you find something about this suspicious?

[iraonavp]

Spoiler: Quotewall on lolbabe/Ras

Please note, it's not a clumsy town slip, i could've asked the same being scum. I just didn't see any setup information in the first posts.

Mmmh this sounds so self-conscious.

Oh wow, Dave is scum.

This quote is here to represent the whole "scumslip" business, which, as I've said, sounds contrived.

[misc. counterwagoning CN]

It's really bad that Swords was killed as after the hammer

he, FA and Syndesis

were pretty much confirmed town players. It could be not so, but it's not the time for paranoia.

[...]

I also want to point out that CN was a very probable lynch so

I doubt his buddy defended him really much

so we should look among those who were uncertain about him, placed their vote on someone else or did not vote at all.

Bolded bits just feel a bit uncomfortable.

What's interesting about it? It would be weird of me to try to defend my predecessor and so I'm just sort of low hanging fruit for mislynch at this point. I'm not sure you'll even be able to analyse the wagon around it very much because I haven't been here that long. Ugh.

Feel free to call it bad or good but please don't pretend it's "more interesting".

I find it odd you see yourself as "low hanging fruit" and that you says there's little to be gleaned from your wagon.

Same sentence, my friend. If you want to lynch based on lolbade you are essentially prosecuting an absentee, which I think is inarguably rather easy to do.

Untrue. Should I just disregard your predecessor's posts?

Why are you even speculating that if you think I'm scum?

This is not really a good response.

I'm not sure about today. I know the metrion wagon was legit because me and tools are/were town so

it's not like scum counterwagoned

, in other words iranvp isn't necessarily scum.

It takes 6 to make a wagon.

In respect to this, I feel that most of what you've said about lolbabe is accurate, that is: I didn't like the davesaz scumslipping nitpicking business, and I think what you pointed out in 492 is notable. But I am liking Raskolnikov more, and I think you're falling victim to confirmation bias in regards to some of the posts you have quoted of his.

[iraonavp]

Davesaz voters, why do you think he would choose to vote his buddy over a wagon of equal momentum?

Because he didn't want to look bad if FA_Q2 flipped town-aligned and CN would be lynched d2 most likely if FA_Q2 was lynched. CN wasn't doing himself any favors, and davesaz may have thought that it was possible that CN would be lynched d1 even with his pushing of FA_Q2, since CN was simply being so uncooperative. He may have not wanted to deal with CN since he wasn't helping the scum to achieve their wincon. All of these are hypothetical of course, but I'm not going to let my reads get held up on one event, we have more than that to work from.

[iraonavp]

That brings me right back to moosey and rask.

VOTE: moosey

I tire of this slot getting a pass for no reason. Mossey was also off the one scum we lynched and on the one town we lynched.

What changed your mind on ira?

Nothing really. Those 2 slots are more scummy at this point IMHO.

When I first read this, I was a bit taken aback because from memory I thought you had a strong scum-aligned read on me. When I look at your posts however, you were arguing with me a lot yesterday and pointed out several posts you found indicative of a scum-aligned player, yet you never actually vote me at any point and continue to push others. So while that allays any concerns of your forgetting your read on me or something, it makes me notice and find suspicious how your scumhunting focus isn't followed by your votes.

Also, you don't seem to have learnt anything from Metrion's flip and are pushing the same players. I remember you accusing me of doing that on d2,

but I actually think it applies a lot more here!

Explain.

When you accused me of pushing the same reads without considering what the flip meant, I actually had considered what the flip meant in 504. Where as you have just returned to your previous vote on Moosy without even acknowledging Metrion's flip at all.

I find this very scummy as scum have a reason to avoid looking inconstant. A scum flip on a town read *should* cause you to re-evaluate your original positions, not entrench them. Point out those soft defense posts you infer about. I believe this is the first time you mention them.

But actually yeah, whatever. When I look back I don't think it's particularly alignment indicative here or in relation to me on d2, I think I just pointed it out to fuel a petty argument about "faq2 is such hipocrat!!" or something.

[iraonavp]

That brings me right back to moosey and rask.

VOTE: moosey

I tire of this slot getting a pass for no reason. Mossey was also off the one scum we lynched and on the one town we lynched.

What changed your mind on ira?

Nothing really. Those 2 slots are more scummy at this point IMHO.

When I first read this, I was a bit taken aback because from memory I thought you had a strong scum-aligned read on me. When I look at your posts however, you were arguing with me a lot yesterday and pointed out several posts you found indicative of a scum-aligned player, yet you never actually vote me at any point and continue to push others. So while that allays any concerns of your forgetting your read on me or something, it makes me notice and find suspicious how your scumhunting focus isn't followed by your votes.

Also, you don't seem to have learnt anything from Metrion's flip and are pushing the same players. I remember you accusing me of doing that on d2,

but I actually think it applies a lot more here!

Explain.

When you accused me of pushing the same reads without considering what the flip meant, I actually had considered what the flip meant in 504. Where as you have just returned to your previous vote on Moosy without even acknowledging Metrion's flip at all.

I find this very scummy as scum have a reason to avoid looking inconstant. A scum flip on a town read *should* cause you to re-evaluate your original positions, not entrench them. Point out those soft defense posts you infer about. I believe this is the first time you mention them.

But actually yeah, whatever. When I look back I don't think it's particularly alignment indicative here or in relation to me on d2, I think I just pointed it out to fuel a petty argument about "faq2 is such hipocrat!!" or something.

Pure reactionary to discredit me. And you wonder why I peg you as possibly scum.

You see, you reinforced your scum reads after a SCUM slip - a scum slip that you had a town read on. Somehow that had no bearing on your scum reads and interactions were rather meaningless to you. Further, I scum read rak, moosey and you, three players that were both off the scum lynch and on the town lynch. Why would that particular town read change my scum read on the three of you? You have been wrong about everything thus far ira - everything. And you don't seem to even notice.

You reinforced your scum-aligned reads after someone you were reading as scum-aligned flipped town-aligned, so that evidently had no bearing on your perception of the game either. You gave no indication that you went through the process of thinking that, but still. Look at what I said in 504 and compare it to what you're saying here! Chaotic Neutrality flipping scum-aligned made my scum-aligned read on Metrion make more sense, just like how Metrion flipping town-aligned makes your scum-aligned reads on Rask, Moosy and I make more sense.

[iraonavp]

I tend to lean town on players like that.

That's an odd choice of words. Would "players like that tend to be town" fit better in this context?

[iraonavp]

On the one hand, FA's push looks like a bit like opportunism.

On the other hand, Ras's reaction is rather defensive wow.

I don't find FA's push particularly opportunistic considering how he has already claimed to read Rask and Moosy as scum-aligned and nothing was happening with his Moosy vote. I think his case against Rask is weak, but I have little issue with the timing of his vote.

I also don't think that Rask's reaction to pressure has been very defensive...

[iraonavp]

To get this out of the way: my phrasing in my ISO read on dave wasn't the greatest. I said he was trying to make people look scummy -- more like "hint that people might be scum in order to undermine townreads."

I think you're missing the point of what I'm doing.

A calls B town for no reason or a bad reason.
I point out to A that their reasoning is bad.

This does not mean I think B isn't town, nor does it mean I'm trying to convince A that B isn't town.
I'm pointing out that A might be scum because they're using bad reasoning to townread B. And trying to do it in a way that engages A to explain further, so I can sort A.

Now, go back through that again and see if you understand...

This is a good post. Dave going down on the "hope he's dead" meter.

It's literally just theory, I don't see how that could be very indicative..? Davesaz doesn't even address the point that toolenduso is making here. Are you saying that you think what toolenduso said in 263 applies?

[iraonavp]

Can you give some details on the Syndesis read?

They... seem town-aligned? Their posts are genuine and train-of-thought, s that what you want to hear? I am not good at town-aligned reads. Let's say it is a "gut read", if that makes it easier.

This sounds like you have no true scum reads at all?

I don't understand where you're getting this from. I read Metrion, FA_Q2, TheCow and you as scum-aligned to various degrees. The deadline is forcing a compromise lynch.

How is this a compromise lynch? You want to lynch me and I am one of the leading wagons.

A compromise lynch because Metrion would be my first pick for today's lynch.

Wait. Where the actual fuck did this just come from? I could be wrong here, but I don't think I remember this ever being said before. Now, at deadline suddenly the top lynch choice is a lurker who is not one of the 2 main wagons who I don't recall you making a case on before?

Come again?

I mentioned Metrion in 76, 372 and 416. I also had my vote placed on him previously... I often try and keep track of my feelings about players in my head and don't post all my thoughts, so I can see how you might've missed my scum-aligned read on Metrion.

I missed that in my skim but went back and you're right. I still don't like the push, and actually reading the early posts I like it even less. Especially considering the fact that he said a large part of his reasoning for why he thought met was scum was because he thought it was trying to distract from the hawk wagon, a wagon that we now know was town, which didn't seem to deter him at all.

Okay then.

In response to your concern here which has already been raised:

Metrion was subtly whiteknighting a town member here to avoid awkwardly joining the wagon and looking bad after the flip, rather than trying to dissolve the wagon on his partner.

It's also a very small part of my scum-aligned read on Metrion and in the infancy of my suspicion of him.

[iraonavp]

D1 end. Nice job town!

That makes my previous post all the more important. Throwing a wrench into the lynch equation when a scummy is on the chopping block makes trying to derail a buddy a real possibility. Especially because the post literally made me do a double take.

at hawkeyes fake claim as town.

I fucking hate that. Even if it worked this time.

I mean maybe you have a point about the counterwagon thing, this has been discussed at length, but note that FA_Q2 was the counterwagon not Metrion. I'm not convinced from your blind notes of d1 that you would've voted CN over FA_Q2 here either.

[iraonavp]

All caught up.

vote: iraonavp

Reasoning is in 836 and 837.

DIE SUCK DIE DIE DIE SUCK DIE SCUM SUCK DIE

Anything else? We have a lot more than just d1 to work with here.

[iraonavp]

Page 20. Has lolbabe taken a strong stance on literally anything this entire game?

What do you think of this slot (lolbabe was replaced by Raskolnikov)? This is the only mention I see of lolbabe / Raskolnikov, and you haven't included them in your list of scum-aligned reads.

[iraonavp]

Page 26. Not a huge fan of the metrion lynch because a) it seems to have been pulled out of some asses b) those asses seem to be working in concert and c) those asses all belong to people who I am reading as scum.

Are you referring to more than just me and FA_Q2 here, and if so, who? I got the feeling that the scum were supporting either my or Metrion's lynch and were willing to switch momentum at the slightest whim.

(Also, sorry for attacking you with such a barrage of questions but it's great to finally have more activity in the thread and an opportunity to pressure your slot!)

[iraonavp]

A soulread is like a gut read but

deeper

Glimpse of towniness is 767 but even looking at it now I'm not sure it's something I can townread.

How did you get a read of any kind on cow?

I got a scum-aligned read from TheCow's earlier posting regarding hawkleader3's typing speed, the dubious meta read, and "wagoning for the sake of the gamestate". You found him completely unreadable, despite his 33 posts? Please.

I don't get all the Cow hate TBH.

TheCow's tone was also weird as fuck and kept switching so when I just try to read his posts and get a general feel for his alignment I start to think he's hiding something. Maybe it's just a personality thing though, because I'm feeling more okay with Thestatusquo's blind catchup.

[iraonavp]

@Thestatusquo, what do you think of dave's mechanical posting in general? Town or scum?

What do you mean by mechanical? Do you perhaps mean logical?

Why do you feel the need to respond to a question that is not directed at you?

I agree with this to some extent, I don't really mind people butting in on questions but the way he did it sucked. Obviously davesaz doesn't believe that Moosy actually meant "logical", this seems uncharacteristically snarky for davesaz and I don't like it at all.

I did however dislike how Thestatusquo ended up having danced around the question that Moosy originally asked. I thought it was a good question since Thestatusquo claims not to have a strong read on davesaz.

[iraonavp]

What catalyzed your vote?

Could be related to him going V/LA? In which case I find it a convenient excuse to place a vote without having to explain it until he comes back.

Also not liking in 906 acknowledgement that Soapbar's post is scummy but voting Raskolnikov anyway despite claiming to read both slots as scum-aligned.

So yeah, I'm still good with my vote. If we got closer to deadline and I'm still the only one on davesaz, I could realisitically go with FA_Q2 or Soapbar as well.

[iraonavp]

toolenduso, Syndesis, MoosyDoosy

FA_Q2, raskolnikov, Soapbar, TheCow

Metrion
iraonavp

davesaz

, who's scum?

Two out of Soapbar, Raskolnikov, Cow slot. If only one in that set then the other is most likely Moosy. I'm having a really hard time getting any traction.

Also, what the hell happened to davesaz's scum-aligned read on me?

It seems to have conveniently vanished after I started accusing him, because I honestly don't see how Metrion's flip could've changed his opinion on me for the better.

[iraonavp]

Well, go ahead and lynch me then. Clearly town does not give a fuck anymore.
Ras is scummy as hell. TSQ really is not any better. Your read on me is shit. Soaps last actions was scummy as well and he has not done much for town this game at all.

I think a likely pair is Ras TSQ - Ras has been feeling me out as a possible lynch for awhile now and I think it has to do with seeing how much traction they can get. I can concive both scum playing together at this point because it would be devistating to lose a second scum partner at this stage to many town players to be down to a single scum.

I feel mixed here.

Bad in this post: prematurely timed and feels exaggerated (surely he does not detect apathy to such an extreme extent?!).
Good in this post: giving reads as if to aid the town going forward, I think this is quite an accurate tell actually.

I think this post would be more conclusively indicative if it was posted closer to L-1, it's unclear if FA_Q2 actually thinks his lynch is inevitable or is trying Appeal to Emotion in fear of his lynch becoming inevitable!

[iraonavp]

we only have 1 mislynch left

Slip or nah?

how could you possibly think we only have one mislynch left?

1 mislynch left: 2 would lose. 8 players, 2 scum. 1 mislynch puts us at 4 town/2 scum which is MYLO -> Lylo. 3:2 lylo is a pretty bad situation and I think odds are pretty bad if we get there.

That is an unconventional way of cpnsidering things, but I don't see how it could constitute a slip.

[iraonavp]

Looking at FA's 922, it

is

reminiscent of frustrated town. (I said this about CN too, so take that with a grain of salt. ) However...I'm not sure what it is about it that's bothering me, but

something

is. Could just be tonal, though.

And that sums the ENTIRE argument used against me up.

SOMETHING - no one anywhere seems to know - is wrong with FA's posts. The words to describe that will likely get me banned so I wont state them.

Well...

Perhaps this very post exemplifies an aspect of your tone, with the whole indignance-that-feels-unwarranted-and-overdefensive thing I am detecting. When you say that it's the "ENTIRE" argument against you, it's like that's really clearly not true and exaggeratory but you almost want us to think that you're just really stubborn and think that? I barely passed English poetry analysis crap many years ago so sorry I can't be more clear.

[iraonavp]

Welcome, RadiantCowbells! Sorry, but I don't smile very often.

I'm back from the mountain but walking on snow took a lot out of me.

Good to see you're back.

Could you explain what happened to your scum-aligned read on me?

Do you have a read on TheCow's slot (Thestatusquo replaced him) now?

[iraonavp]

Can you give some more detail on that vote? How is he your strongest scumread(if he is) when he has the least content to base a read on.

I second this request.

Realistically, you can't expect us to vote Soapbar with about 2.5 days left if you don't even give us a case. I can potentially see you reading him as scum-aligned for him not placing a vote yet as well as the weird unvote on FA_Q2, but that wouldn't be enough to warrant the confidence that you seem to have.

On another note, do you think davesaz is town-aligned?

[iraonavp]

That looks disconcertingly like rolefishing.

I don't think it necessarily is, though.

It is an odd post. I don't see why davesaz (as any alignment, really) would even feel the need to say that at all, an investigative role with a guilty result would've almost surely revealed earlier than this.

[iraonavp]

Why are you scumreading Ras? What catalyzed your vote?

Outstanding question for

dave

!

Of the 3 people with 2 votes at the time I saw him as scummiest.

I'm town. Pull your heads out of your asses or lose, it's as simple as that.
If you don't like Ras for a lynch then push someone other than me and I'll happily join in.
And I

really

need to find someone I'm confident is town. So far, not happening. Really sad. Literally, the way you're all bouncing along like jumping beans, scum could be anyone.

But haven't you like... supposedly... made reads while you were playing the game...

Also, just saying, this reminds me of CN's "better him than me" comment.

[iraonavp]

Why are you scumreading Ras? What catalyzed your vote?

Outstanding question for

dave

!

Of the 3 people with 2 votes at the time I saw him as scummiest.

I'm town. Pull your heads out of your asses or lose, it's as simple as that.
If you don't like Ras for a lynch then push someone other than me and I'll happily join in.
And I

really

need to find someone I'm confident is town. So far, not happening. Really sad. Literally, the way you're all bouncing along like jumping beans, scum could be anyone.

But haven't you like... supposedly... made reads while you were playing the game...

Actually nevermind this, I misread "confident is town" as "confident is scum".

[iraonavp]

Why are you completely ignoring me when I restate my question and even Raskolnikov restates it, but you're talking to Syndesis?! ._.

[iraonavp]

Why are you scumreading Ras? What catalyzed your vote?

Outstanding question for

dave

!

Of the 3 people with 2 votes at the time I saw him as scummiest.

Gut. I don't really have a reason. Scum would

make up something

. I

never

do that as town. If I get stuck in a game where I don't have solid reads on people I go with gut and it's right more often than not.

Get off my back and lynch someone, we have a little over a day left.

But that's just WIFOM, my God what are you even saying?

[iraonavp]

ayyyy let's lynch Soapbar please.

I'm not good at convincing you all but I think it's the best lynch.

Really, this is just frustrating. Maybe you think he's scum-aligned. Maybe you might even be right. I can kinda see where you're coming from but davesaz is so much worse, I just can't know what you're thinking. At this state of the game, do you really expect anyone to follow your vote if you just repeat "we should vote soapbar" over and over again?

I preferred Moosy to be quite honest.

[iraonavp]

Sigh...

I really want davesaz dead now. I understand that it's generally considered best play to nolynch at MyLo though, so we should probably do that to be most prudent.

davesaz, for the fourth or something time,

please

just give some explanation as to why your read on me is so flimsy and inconsistent. Even just acknowledge me, I'm getting really tired of your dodging bullshit and the more you ignore me the more I know I'm asking the right questions.

[iraonavp]

Hmm... who have you been guarding? I'm inherently suspicious of a bodyguard claim who has survived to day 4...

Do you really think a jailkeeper and a bodyguard would be in the same setup? Because you never counterclaimed hawkleader3, and you treat him as if he's town-aligned here:

We've had a good amount of fireworks with the Hawk runup and claim. I think we should onto that wagon.

I guess the rest of 980 makes sense with you trying to get an investigative role to claim, so you can guard them. But really, crumbs are almost meaningless if you do them under pressure and not early in the game.

[iraonavp]

My entire purpose in life has been to identify a PR so that I could save him/her.

Actually, what the fuck? How about the guy who

literally claimed a PR

, ever thought of saving him?

Yeah, you're scum-aligned.

[iraonavp]

I am not sure about this.

Iraon's points make sense.

In addition to that, I think a bodyguard in addition to a jailkeeper in addition to my role is too much power for the setup maybe.

There isn't actually a jailkeeper, hawkleader3 was a vanilla townie who fakeclaimed jailkeeper and got killed on night 1.

There was, however, an even-night commuter, which can stop kills. The JOAT probably had some kind of protection ability too.

[iraonavp]

But really, setup speculation is far less telling than the fact that davesaz didn't die in the place of hawkleader3 on night 1.

[iraonavp]

Let's just massclaim, why not.

I'm a vanilla townie.

[iraonavp]

At this point a mass claim is not a bad idea. Particularly considering that several PR's already outed themselves. If we popcorn it seems as though ira went first so you need to pick the next one.

I think you should claim next!

[iraonavp]

If you're telling the truth, which I deem fairly likely, then that means the scum-aligned team is davesaz / Soapbar. I don't think you're lying because of how I would expect an investigative role in the setup.

davesaz is obviously scum-aligned from his poor fakeclaim. I'm town-aligned, and I've been pushing davesaz as an alternative to Raskolnikov since yesterday. Do you really see me doing this as a scum-aligned player, when I could've easily pushed Raskolnikov instead? The davesaz wagon did gain traction at times.

It's not so unlikely for Soapbar to have fakeclaimed that role as you make it sound. He could be a rolecop and have checked you, or he might've just guessed that there was a cop in the setup (it's a common role). Claiming an enabler for a non-existent role wouldn't even be so bad for him, since some moderators put those useless kinds of roles into a setup. He might also be a scum-aligned cop enabler.

After that claim I honestly think we should lynch davesaz today, since what will 99% be you dying tonight gives us hardly any information and leaves us with one less town voice.

[iraonavp]

Sure. His claim is more believable than davesaz's, though.

[iraonavp]

There could be a scum-aligned roleblocker which could screw everything up, so that's not actually a foolproof plan.

Davesaz is confirmed to be scum-aligned at this point, honestly. He still hasn't even given night results and would've obviously protected hawkleader3. Nolynching here is just letting an all but confirmed town-aligned player die.

VOTE: davesaz

[iraonavp]

Q: why not save hawk
A: because you expect a cop and save it for the higher value pr

But you couldn't have known who the cop was.

You still haven't claimed your targets from each night, holy shit.

not to mention I guessed correctly that it was fake in the first place

Where? I noticed only that you treated hawkleader3 as if he was town-aligned.

I see no reason for scum Dave to fakeclaim BG.

So he doesn't get lynched? A sort of "just let me live one more night so i can potentially confirm myself as town by dying!!" thing. Which also explains why he's been stalling constantly, he knows he's getting lynched sooner or later.

Can we seriously just lynch davesaz, it's fucking

embarrassing

to have to go through these flawed contingency plans for if he's miraculously town-aligned when he's so blindingly obviously scum-aligned.

[iraonavp]

There could be a scum-aligned roleblocker which could screw everything up, so that's not actually a foolproof plan.

So? What is your damn point? There is no such thing as a foolproof plan.

The problem is what I see happening if we follow that plan. Making the assumption that I am scum-aligned with davesaz and nolynching will cost the town the game.

Either you die, davesaz is lynched the next day, it's me vs. Soapbar after that.
Or you live, davesaz is lynched the next day after showing red to your check, you die, it's me vs. Soapbar after that.

That's not a position I relish being in.

But unless you are claiming that there is greater than a 33% chance that there is one (the chance of picking a player at random of the three who could be scum) this hand wringing is fucking stupid and rings hollow.

I am 99% sure davesaz is scum-aligned at this point. He claims to be a bodyguard trying to get himself killed in the place of a PR, yet hasn't protected a claimed PR. That's more enough to confirm him as scum-aligned.

[iraonavp]

Actually, I just noticed some pretty strong evidence for Soapbar / davesaz at this point anyway.

Cop enabler is a scum role.

He assumes that Soapbar is telling the truth about his claim here, which could be a slight tell.

The fact that he was voting him before, misses the claim, and then unvotes after he sees Soapbar's claim suggests the following interpretation:

Davesaz didn't expect Soapbar (scum-aligned cop enabler) to claim town-aligned cop enabler. Davesaz wanted to lynch Soapbar to disable Thestatusquo's ability, meaning that he doesn't have to deal with the awkward situation of being confirmed as scum-aligned if he kills Thestatusquo, he can just leave him alone.

[iraonavp]

Thestatusquo, I suggest that you cop either Soapbar or I tonight rather than davesaz. Davesaz is already all-but confirmed as scum-aligned, so copping him gives you little information. Saying you intend to cop either me or Soapbar forces davesaz to kill you tonight, or else his second partner will be found.

Otherwise, if you cop davesaz, he can kill someone else, get revealed as scum-aligned, lynched, and then you die the next night leaving me vs. Soapbar.

[iraonavp]

Alright. If Soapbar is a scum cop enabler, do you think this has implications in terms of associatives?

I'm more than 80% sure it's soap & ira.

I'm more than 80% sure that if you were town-aligned, you would be 100% sure, since Thestatusquo's results already confirmed that 2 / 3 of davesaz / iraonavp / Soapbar are scum-aligned!

[iraonavp]

But whatever, I guess we can win this without lynching davesaz today.

UNVOTE: davesaz

[iraonavp]

Davesaz didn't expect Soapbar (scum-aligned cop enabler) to claim town-aligned cop enabler.

What.

This is what I consider the most likely possibility based on their behavior. I think you may have missed some context!

I will cop whomever I want to. I will not make it easy for scum to predict who I am going to investigate.

Have it your way then. I don't think you're making optimal decisions, but we'll probably win anyway.

[iraonavp]

how can you possibly know if I'm making an optimal decision without knowing what decision I will make?

Because you've already stated that you don't want to lynch davesaz.

This is what I consider the most likely possibility based on their behavior. I think you may have missed some context!

Is any scumteam so dysfunctional that they don't plan out claims beforehand?

It this case, perhaps.

[iraonavp]

VOTE: no lynch

[iraonavp]

Hmmm, okay.

I was really expecting Thestatusquo to have been attacked last night. I think that was sub-optimal play from davesaz by choosing not to kill the cop, although he didn't have much of a chance anyway.

Thestatusquo, what result did you get or were you roleblocked?

[iraonavp]

That's a relief, Thestatusquo. I trust you over both davesaz and Soapbar, I think we're right here.

No reason to drag this out longer than necessary, 1267 is just trash.

VOTE: davesaz

p-edit: Don't worry, we'll lynch your cop enabler tomorrow!

[iraonavp]

I'll admit, I am slightly thrown off by how Thestatusquo was neither killed nor roleblocked.

I think that this is a last-ditch WIFOM attempt to get Thestatusquo lynched or discredited, since if they killed him at night he already had innocent results on 2 players, which is already not great for the scum. Otherwise, if taken as genuine, today Thestatusquo's cop action has found both scum-aligned players by PoE.

There's still a chance that Thestatusquo is scum-aligned, but it's pretty remote at this point considering how his reads reflected his result on Syndesis and the act of checking FA_Q2. We can deal with it tomorrow (if he lives), anyway.

It's still impossible to ignore the fact that davesaz didn't protect hawkleader3.

[iraonavp]

Go ahead and release the Mafia PT, that's fine.

I enjoyed this game for the most part, thanks for modding!

I think a lot of my confidence in this game came from incorrectly believing that certain players were cops with innocent results on me. I first thought that Raskolnikov and then davesaz (after a few times of repeating the question in 916, it suddenly occurred to me that he could be a cop) were cops, but they in fact weren't. It was very close near the end there, if Thestatusquo had checked anyone other than me then we probably would've lost.