ABR
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292 - Fluff question to Scarab (PK) about if I am manipulating BBT or if he is manipulating me.
306 - Banter with Scarab (PK) : "Did I stutter"
667 - Asks me why I am singling out Zoros.
670 - Banter with PK about RC flipping town. Asks him to write him a case on BBT so "I don't have to"
672 - More banter with PK.
674 - Asks me if he votes PK will I help him out tomorrow.
681 - Votes pk
754 - More banter with pk
834 - points out that I am "singling out Zoronod"
894 - tells pk that BBT isn't bad, just scum and his flip will be telling.
921 - asks bbt if we lynch pk, juls, pb in that order will we win.
960 - summary of reads entering day 4 : juls is 'worst', pk and I have similar leanings and on Prolapse wagon, pb has been bad and he and zoro have been at odds, zoro is consistent with his pb read and a newbie
974 - banter with pb and pk
977 - notes pk's scum group is ABR, zoro, Juls
995 - tells equi it needs to be pk or juls today
996 - hedges that pk and juls could be town but will do what he promised bbt
1012 - votes pk.
1017 - unvotes pk (3 min later)
1020 - asks pk to unvote him.
1023 - begs pk to unvote him.
1027 - says he thinks pk is scum and is in step with me.
1033 - blames me and pk for bbt lynch
1034 - again says me and pk are in step
1036 - responds to pk saying its obvious that bbt was town in twilight
1045 - asks pk who he wants to lynch besides abr and juls
1051 - says he didn't like Zoro popping in with his "hey guys I'm here" post
PB
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115 - votes scarab (pk)
120 - unvotes scarab, votes juls
149 - responds to zoro who claims pb said asking someone to play serious is scummy. Pb says he didn't call him scum.
151 - more discussion with zoro about the calling clusk scum.
156 - zoro questions him about why he felt clusk was town and he explains that it was consistent with town who respond to his pushes.
157 - calls zoros town
158 - tells zoros to check him out as SKOT
160 - responds to scarab (pk) asking him if he still hammers at L-1.
274 - responds to a post by scarab (pk) and asserts zoros is town.
352 - banter with scarab (pk).
378 - brushed off abr/bbt fight as a weak one.
732 - responds to zoros saying pb hasn't had substantive scum hunting by saying show him someone who has. Says zoros effort is weak.
734 - asks zoros what he is basing his scum reading of pb on.
735 - responds to zoros case on him.
736 - summary of reads: ABR: no idea, pk: cant sort, zoro: flipping back and forth
741 - says pk's scum reads are weak
743 - banters with pk who said he cant sort pb.
822 - new summary of reads pk probably town, abr concerning, zoro uninvolved, tunneling, and parking.
861 - accuses zoros of tunneling
938 - suspects are zoro, juls, abr
955 - says pk slipped his mind and is why he didn't include him in his suspicions
961 - asks abr why zoro and equi are town (?)
1058 - says zoros is stupid and dumb ass play, locked in on him with confirmation bias
1059 - more arguing with zoro, cause he has reduced it to abr/pb
1060 - more arguing with zoros, compliments his thought process but calls it weak
1085 - throws an insult at zoros
1100 - trying to 'break through stubborn perspective" of zoros
Scarab/pk
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11 - votes ABR
22 - unvotes ABR, calls PB his/her strongest town read
159 - friendly banter with PB. Responds to zoro defending his page 1 post
226 - says ABRs day opening post was 'beautiful'
264 - votes Zoros for defending him/her.
271 - long explanation of why he/she voted Zoros using PB in hypothetical
287 - unvotes Zoros after liking his explanation of his Scarab read
305 - expresses confusion at ABR asking him/her about me and BBT
310 - says he/she doesn't think either BBT/Juls are manipulating the other in response to ABR
402 - response to RC defending 'sheeping' of ABR
405 - gets a town read on pb from page 5 can't really explain though
406 - doesn't like pb 139 but...probably not a tell. Admits to skimming Zoro
pk replace in....
568 - pk notes ABR vs BBT is interesting
571 - agrees with Sotty's 237 by having a null town read on pb
573 - defends ABR from BBT suggesting ABR was deflecting onto Sotty
740 - Juls/PB are his 'fluffy' scum reads
749 - tells ABR he should vote BBT
920 - asks BBT whats the difference between ABR as lurkertown vs. lurkerscum
923 - asks ABR why he is now scumreading him
927 - says ABR is trying to cover for his hammer
940 - Scum suspects are Zoro, Juls and one of ABR/PB.
963 - says ABR is suddenly active since hammering BBT
976 - would vote Zoros or Juls
978 - reiterates order (Zoro, Juls, on of ABR/PB)
980 - says he isn't going to vote ABR when he can vote somebody he knows is scum
1010 - says ABR is carrying cross for BBT (sarcasm)
1013 - votes ABR for 'bleeding heart bullshit'
1014 - asks GC to join him voting ABR
1024 - unvotes ABR 8 minutes after he votes him
1026 - asks Zoro why we are going to lynch PB today
1044 - says PB is lurking, Juls is active lurking
1047 - tells ABR he is infuriating (for not reading?)
1048 - not a fan of PBs lurking
1049 - says ABR lurked midgame until BBT-hammer
1094 - votes Juls
Zoronos
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68 - Asks Sotty why she picked out Scarab (pk)'s 22 specifically to question
98 - Defense of scarab (pk) as making a dumb joke
100 - More defense of scarab (pk) to Sotty
148 - tells pb that telling someone to play serious is not scummy
150 - asks what pb learned from his interactions with clusk
155 - responds to skolds vote of pb and says he isn't ready to pass judgement yet
240 - not willing to vote Scarab (pk) at this time. Expresses suspicion of skold voting pb in the middle of his questioning of him.
284 - explains to scarab (pk) why he thinks he/she is town. (that scarab said he/she was glad Garmr died)
285 - asks Skold to expand on his reasons for thinking ABR is scum
330 - asks ABR to talk to him (about Skold, anyone else)
386 - recognizes RCs reason for suspecting Scarab (pk) but still likes his town read on him.
420 - asks Skold to explain why ABR is scum.
428 - explains why he is reluctant to vote Scarab (pk) (scarab's reaction to Garmr's death and he/she attacked him because of the read)
445 - sees RC's point about scarab but doesn't think its the most likely chain of events
451 - Asks RC for a compromise choice not including SKold/Scarab
499 - +1'd a comment of Sotty's asking for Skold to explain why ABR is scum.
510 - again states he thinks pk is town.
530 - asks for further clarification from Skold on ABR being scum
534 - insinuates ABR is playing badly but not scum
537 - points out a post from ABR that he thinks is town
548 - explains his viewpoint of Skold vs ABR
694 - still thinks Scarab (pk) is town, votes PB
714 - liked scarab more than pk, notes pk as being a revisionist after RC died but still likes for town
824 - mentions ABR was blaming me for Prolapse lynch, not BBT
867 - a little explanation of his peace read to BBT but doesn't really say anything definitive
868 - long explanation of PB-scum read. boils down to back tracking and deflecting
945 - says he is either wrong about Scarab (pk) or its me, ABR, pb
971 - wants to vote peace, had thought ABR, PK, PB after analysis but ABRs response to ? changed his mind
984 - Juls/ABR link, peace is the lynch least likely to lose
986 - explanation of why PB is least likely to lose lynch.
993 - tells GC he has to change his mind and asks if ABR/Juls are bussing pk
1053 - response to me (misunderstood question). Insinuates he will have to make a peace vs. ABR choice (I presume in 3-way LYLO)?
1056 - explains to pk why he wants to vote pb
1083 - asks Pk what he thinks of his pb case
1086 - chastises PB for personal attacks
1099 - begs pk to work with him
1108 - implores pb to change his mind if he is town
So I only focused on interactions and mentions of the four suspects amongst each other. Here are my findings:
ABR has 26 posts in which he is interacting with/mentioning the other 3. Of those, a massive 22 are interactions with PK. That is unnatural. Compare that with only 4 for Zoro and 3 with PB. The interactions with Zoro are benign, not really interacting at all, more simple acknowledgements of other peoples (mine) comments on him. The pb interactions are even worse because he banters with him once, and has him in reads list the other two.
PB's interactions are mostly with Scarab/PK and Zoros. The interactions with scarab are mostly fluff (see 115, 120, 160, 352, 743). Only once does he mention scarab/pk in a game context (741) where he says Scarab's reads are weak. Two things really caught my attention in PB's interactions though. First, was his summary of reads in 736. On the 3 other suspects his reads are "don't know", "can't sort", and "flipping back and forth". This really reads as keeping his options open to jump which ever way that day swings. Second, and the most damning for me, is in 1100. He has been calling Zoro scum for most of the day but he says "I am just trying to break through your stubborn perspective". That's a slip. He is acknowledging that he KNOWS Zoros is town but that he is being stubborn. When I read this, my 75% certainty jumped to 99.9% certainty.
Scarab/PK was a little hard to go through admittedly without OMGUS but I tried to be impartial. I've already mentioned all the interactions with ABR. The biggest thing that struck me with him is the evolution (or more apt, lack there of) of his reads. On Day 3, post 740, he says me and PB are is scum reads. He starts the day with his scum suspects as Zoro, Juls, ABR/PB in that order (post 940). He reiterates in 976 he will vote Zoros/Juls. Reiterates again in 978, same order. Where did his scum read of PB go? In 980 he says he isn't going to vote ABR when he can vote someone he knows is scum. Then he votes ABR in 1013 and unvotes him 8 minutes later in 1024. Similarly, ABR votes (post 1012) and unvotes pk (post 1017) within 5 minutes. It all reads as setup. He quickly drops all suspicion of ABR and starts talking about me once GC indicates he will vote me. He only mentions PBs lurking but never indicates his willingness to vote. The drop off of Zoros is the only thing that gives me a connection here (and Zoros calling him town most of the game which I will get to next).
Lastly, Zoros. As far as interactions with the other 3, they are mostly with Scarab/PK and PB. He asks a few times for Skold to explain his suspcions of ABR and asks ABR to talk to him at one point but thats pretty much it. With Scarab, Zoros spends several posts defending scarab in the early game and kinda keeps that town read throughout the entire game. The only note of frustration with PK comes in 1083 and 1086 where he is asking pk to respond to his case on pb. He has held a suspicion of pb since around 868 (maybe earlier?).
So if I had to break it down by most to least likely partners, it would be:
ABR--->PK, PB, Zoros
PB --->PK, Zoros, ABR
PK --->ABR, PB, Zoros
Zoros--->PK, PB, ABR
If you want to break that down by points (3 to highest propability , 1 to lowest) you have:
PK (3+3+3) = 9
PB (2+2+2) = 6
ABR (3+1+1) = 5
Zoros (1+2+1) = 4
That's all I got, do with it what you will. GC, I ask that you at least read it. And you too Equinox. I'd love some feedback.
VOTE: PK
