Mini 1671 - Eclipse Mafia - Total Eclipse (Game Over)

[pisskop]

umm no I just came off a lose because I got too jumpy in lylo.

[pisskop]

Alrighty, who do you want to vote?

I'd vote Zoro or Juls. Let's go down the list.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Your scumgroup is me, zoro and Juls?

[pisskop]

Nope.

[pisskop]

Zoro, Juls, and you or PB.

[pisskop]

I'm not going to vote for you when I coul vote for somebody I know is scumz.

[pisskop]

#JungleRepublic2

[Green Crayons]

Sotty thoughts:

Juls, (PK or ABR), (Zoro or PB)

Sotty harbored Scarab/PK suspicions the longest. But she wanted a Juls lynch the most right before night concluded.



I think it's interesting that Juls showed up on everyone's list of 3 scum, but nobody wants to lynch her. I dunno if that's worth anything, though.


I'm inclined to vote Juls unless if Equinox has some mind shattering insight. Which he might! So I'll wait.

[Green Crayons]

Juls, (PK or ABR), (Zoro or PB)

Interestingly, PK/ABR and Zoro/PB have sort of set themselves up for 1v1s. So Sotty did a good job pairing off!

That leaves Juls as the lone scum without a pairing.

[Zoronos]

Juls has an ABR pair. That's why Peacebringer is the lynch least likely to lose here.
I'm working on turning my jumble of thoughts into something digestible.

[Juls]

So I am on everyone's scum list and that makes me scum? Why wouldn't it be the other way around? Only 1 of the people saying that is ACTUALLY town you realize?

[Zoronos]

(This is a little rough, so please bear with me. The underlying idea is sound, I think.)

From my seat, the lynch that is least likely to lose the game outright is Peace. It would require an ABR / Juls / Pisskop scum team. Which means 2/3 of the scum team is bussing, and Pisskop is on a 50/50. They might all be waiting for me to wrongvote Peace, but if that's the case we're already hosed since Peace and I cross-suspect each other.

Before ABR's post, I thought the scum team were going direct and trying for the mislynch today. That meant it was a coin flip between Juls and Piss for the town slot. (Either Piss is wrong and scum will follow on his vote, or Juls is wrong and scum will follow on the PK vote). The reason ABR was scum in the direct case is that ABR-town would require a Peace / PK / Juls scum team. That would mean Juls was busing her entire team on D2 and is busing again now, which if scum are going direct can't be the case. After doing a full re-read I was leaning towards Juls as the town slot in this scenario.

ABR's post against PK wrong-footed that. Unless there are only two scum, there's no way that both Juls and ABR are town. That means it's two coin flips; [Juls | ABR] vs PK and if PK flips scum Juls vs ABR. If PK isn't town, at least one scum must be busing right now, but I don't have a good feel for if it's ABR or Juls. If he is town, then ABR and Juls are going direct (which just puts me back into the earlier PK vs Juls case), with Peace as the follow on. But in none of those scenarios is Peace town.

I think the right vote here is Peace.

[Green Crayons]

So I am on everyone's scum list and that makes me scum? Why wouldn't it be the other way around? Only 1 of the people saying that is ACTUALLY town you realize?

Sotty + Me + 1 other town + who knows what Equinox thinks of you > 1 person

Also, it's not just that you're on everyone's list. It's that you're on everyone's list but nobody said that they want to vote you. It's the best of both worlds for scum.

[Green Crayons]

(This is a little rough, so please bear with me. The underlying idea is sound, I think.)

From my seat, the lynch that is least likely to lose the game outright is Peace. It would require an ABR / Juls / Pisskop scum team. Which means 2/3 of the scum team is bussing, and Pisskop is on a 50/50. They might all be waiting for me to wrongvote Peace, but if that's the case we're already hosed since Peace and I cross-suspect each other.

Before ABR's post, I thought the scum team were going direct and trying for the mislynch today. That meant it was a coin flip between Juls and Piss for the town slot. (Either Piss is wrong and scum will follow on his vote, or Juls is wrong and scum will follow on the PK vote). The reason ABR was scum in the direct case is that ABR-town would require a Peace / PK / Juls scum team. That would mean Juls was busing her entire team on D2 and is busing again now, which if scum are going direct can't be the case. After doing a full re-read I was leaning towards Juls as the town slot in this scenario.

ABR's post against PK wrong-footed that. Unless there are only two scum, there's no way that both Juls and ABR are town. That means it's two coin flips; [Juls | ABR] vs PK and if PK flips scum Juls vs ABR. If PK isn't town, at least one scum must be busing right now, but I don't have a good feel for if it's ABR or Juls. If he is town, then ABR and Juls are going direct (which just puts me back into the earlier PK vs Juls case), with Peace as the follow on. But in none of those scenarios is Peace town.

I think the right vote here is Peace.

If it's Zoro v. PB, I assure you I'm not voting PB.

[Green Crayons]

It would require an ABR / Juls / Pisskop scum team.

ABR & Juls want to vote PK.

I don't see an ABR/Juls/PK team, I agree.

I do think you have a good chance at being scum, though.

[Zoronos]

If it's Zoro v. PB, I assure you I'm not voting PB.

Then we lose.

[Green Crayons]

Well then don't make it Zoro v. PB.

[Zoronos]

Well then don't make it Zoro v. PB.

What circumstance, if any, would make you change your mind on this read?

(I don't need you to answer in thread, but I need you to think about it and make sure that answer exists. Otherwise we can't win.)

[Zoronos]

Because I don't see a way to reduce the game state to anything other than PB vs Zor.
So that means I must find a way to change your mind, and so far my cases just get ignored.

Are ABR and Juls both bussing Pisskop?

[Equinox]

I'm inclined to vote Juls unless if Equinox has some mind shattering insight. Which he might! So I'll wait.

It's not likely, at least with regards to Juls, since I was depending on Sotty7's meta knowledge of Juls. I'm curious, though; what did she say that led to her wanting to lynch Juls the most?

Anyway, with Green Crayons out of the way, I'm getting worried now that the scum team are a bunch of people who do not have reason to be overly concerned about their survival. Either that, or they're so concerned that they're killing people who suspect them, but it's still really weird to me that they're leaving confirmed town alive. It might be because of my power lurking, though!

[Albert B. Rampage]

Equinox, no more waffling around. Pisskop or Juls today, alright? Choose someone before the votes pile in and we lose. Not making a decision is a decision in itself in this situation.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Personally, do I think they could still be town? Yeah, there's a chance. That said, I'm going to vote the way I promised BBT I was yesterday, and if we lose then we lose with some good players that were wrong and I can't fight against dead confirmed town who aren't here to argue their points after I've been wrong, again and again and again. I rather get this over with and forget this game happened. You don't understand how embarassing my performance has been here. Please. Juls or Pisskop.

[Juls]

ABR, we have two confirmed town alive. You aren't dictating any lynch. I am fine with GC and Equinox making the decision. If that decision is to lynch me, so be it, we lose but at least it will be town driven.

[Albert B. Rampage]

If you're town you should defend yourself better. Show us you're town. I don't see any personal responsibility whatsoever from you. I don't see any will to survive. I'll vote you, don't think I won't.

[Green Crayons]

I'm curious, though; what did she say that led to her wanting to lynch Juls the most?

I'll just give you the full rundown.

D1 convo:

- Sotty: Sotty has played a lot with Juls, and although she forgets Juls's scumgame, Juls's questioning/probing looks town

D2 convo:

- Sotty: Juls is suspicious because (1) was on Skold flash wagon, (2) pushed Gamr for attacking Juls, (3) voted PB with little/no justification

- Sotty later included Juls in a 3-scum group

- Sotty then started to lean town a bit on Juls, but that began to wither because Sotty was voting Juls at that time to try to force Juls to commit and vote someone, which Juls just wasn't doing

- Sotty, later still, was open to a Juls lynch; said Juls had a fishy record, but Juls replacing out could come from town or scum

- Sotty, later still x2, puts Juls as weak town in full reads list

D3 convo:

- Sotty keeps Juls as weak town in full reads list, but notes she has two scum reads, and so offers Juls as a possible third scum

- Sotty: Juls/PK/BBT are scum because she doesn't see how her town reads could be scum

- Sotty thought BBT v. Juls was scum bickering (tbf, so did I)

N3 convo:

- Thinks 2 scum out of PK, PB, Juls, ABR, because they were on Skold and BBT wagon

- Me: I suspect Juls the most

- Sotty in response to my comment:
+ Sotty agreed, but with some qualifying langauge
+ Sotty thought that Juls might be the best lynch to generate info because connections to both Zoro and ABR
+ Sotty voiced some conerns about a meta thing about whether Juls would replace back into a scum role, but said she was ignoring that because she could just go around and around in circiles