I've been reading along, but obviously fell behind after I went V/LA. What page was I on? Think it was 22, or something around that.
NY135: Sexy Sedilla Semi-Open - Town Wins
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Whoah. Replacing?!? Oh, boy.Ythan
I've been reading along, but obviously fell behind after I went V/LA. What page was I on? Think it was 22, or something around that.My academy.
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Further than I thought. 27. Caught up, now. But, uh, will need to reread to get stronger, well, reads. I had thoughts in my head about certain interactions, but I've forgotten them. (Rereading tends to jumpstart said thoughts.)
Unvote, Vote: Untrod Tripod.
The reason why is in my notes, so I'll explain after I've done a reread to see if what I caught onto is valid.My academy.
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'Cause the scumteam is obviously Quillford (Emp), Ythan (M2), Mask (Sap), and Para (Yos), duh!My academy.
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(*is working*)My academy.
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I'm working on the assumption of four scum--does this number seem wrong to anyone?
*Is working on a little bit of setup speculation*My academy.
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He's one of the Masons. Confirmed town.
On a side-note, I'm treating this game essentially as a Mini (just with one extra scum). Thirteen suspects, when you do the math.My academy.
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I'm gonna try something.
-Read first five pages.
-Read last five pages.
-Read through The Haystack. (ISO predecessor.)
-Read through the IOSs of my suspects. (Since by this point, I should have the thirteen narrowed down to about half of that.)
-Read the whole thread.
In that order. That ought to get me fully into the game. Switch from Spectator Mode to Player Mode.My academy.
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Ironically enough, by the way, this is exactly what I was saying in my notes.Ythan wrote:Chair wrote:Vote: The Mask
Cause obviously scum cover their faces. Also first on the list!
The Mask wrote:Since we're voting in circles,vote: Parabollocks....... uh oes.
Unnecessary amount of explanation for RVs. Eeny, meeny, miny,vote The Mask
Gotta love replacing someone who has reads similar to your own.My academy.
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Heh. It couldn't be that easy, could it?
Having done only THREE pages, I can tell you:
Îdher and Swag are both likely town. Para (and therefore Yosarian2) is town. Oversoul and Quillford are both town, too.
That narrows the scum list down to this:
01. saporovirus The Mask (replaced out D1)
05. Knight of Cydonia
06. kanyeknowsbest
08. Hiraki
09. SpyreX
12. Untrod Tripod x
13. Chair (implosion + Misder)
16. kunkstar7
These eight names contain our scum. And narrowing it down a little further...
-Weak town-read on Hiraki.
-Scum reads on UT (strong), Kayne (weak), KoC (weak), Mask/Sapo (mid), and Chair (mid-strong).
(Which, if you do the math, translates to the remaining two names--kunkstar7 and SpyreX--as being null.)My academy.
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Oh, and for the record. The two weak reads (KoC and Kayne) are created through two different methods. KoC is pretty much pure Gut. Kayne is a little more logical. (Well...Mastin Logical, at least. )My academy.
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By the end of four, I'm more confident in Hiraki as town, and also am thinking logically (again, this is "Mastin Logic" >_<) that KoC is town.
I'm also of the belief that {KoC, Kayne} are of mutually exclusive alignments. (Which, therefore, means my scumread on Kayne grows as my scumread in KoC is reversed.)My academy.
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Done with first five. Tempting to read further, but I'm going to stick with the plan. 24-29. (30 is pretty much all me. ) Predecessor. Suspects. Full game. Maybe VCA after that.
This game is going to be fun.My academy.
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Actually, I'll go back a page further. 23.
Additionally--while I'm far from positive about this--I believe either Yosarian2 or Empking are our lead wagons. (Possible both are.) This does not amuse me. (See: my town-reads on their predecessors.)My academy.
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Eventually?
I kinda am, in a way. I have raw thoughts in my notes. I then post the conclusions from said raw notes. The conclusion from the conclusion is likely what you're wanting. And I think that--now that the first five (most important, by the way) pages are out of the way, for the moment--I'll be posting less.My academy.
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I don't wall, T-Bone. Not consciously, anyway. (Refer to my sig. )
I'm still workin'.My academy.
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^Why do I get the impression Empking is scum waiting to guess correctly? >_<You are a Mafia #-shot Bookie!
Your teammates are (PLAYERNAMES). Each night, you may select a player. If that player is lynched the next day, you may perform an extra kill in addition to your factional the following night.
Have read page 33, but I haven't finished my notes, nor am caught up. Will get back to you within a couple hours.My academy.
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Kayne wrote:youre joking right? you honestly believe that empking just happened to "forget" his kill especially with his town confirmation depending on it? thats impossible. there are two possibilities: empking is town (not a vig) pulling some sort of gambit, or hes scum who thought his lynch was imminent and decided to guarantee his lynch the next day by fakeclaiming something he knew would get him lynched. further, it doesn't make any sense to me that scum would not have killed him last night if his claim had any chance of being true due to fear that he may have been fibbing about how many shots he had.Vote: Kayne.
Might change after I stop slacking off, but I'm a bit preoccupied at the moment.
I haven't read Kayne-Chair. But my gut is telling me it's not townVtown. My reads yesterday said it was scumVscum. I really need to finish things. My head's not in the game, yet, and I know for a fact that when I get my head into the game, I pwn scum.My academy.
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Oops. Coulda SWORN I had posted...My academy.
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Yeah, he's scum.My academy.
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And not the Bookie, but the scum DO have a Bookie. Who targeted him.
This stuff all becomes obvious within five seconds of seeing Empking's hammer.
Also, Hiraki's town.My academy.
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I maintain 1-2 scum are in
01. saporovirus The Mask (replaced out D1)
05. Knight of Cydonia
06. kanyeknowsbest x
^Those names.
It wouldn't surprise me if Empking had all (or all minus one) of his scumteam on him.My academy.
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Hiraki, do you hate newbs?
They seem to frequently be your top suspects.
Oversoul's obv-town.My academy.
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On my desktop right now, so I'm away from my notes. (They're on my laptop.) Will return and consult the notes. But for the moment? {SpyreX, Chair}, and {Kayne, Yosarian} looks like it's one scum in each group.
Definitely 1-2 scum in those four.My academy.
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Yos, I want to believe you. So,Vote: Kayne.My academy.
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Dunno. My notes say simply, "Oversoul and Quilford are both town, by the way." Nothing more.That being said; can you explain why you thought Quilford was town on day 1, Mastin?
If I had to guess, it's likely an early post or two from Quilford. That's generally the kind of thing which makes me say that sort of statement.My academy.
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It could be 42/43, the way they confirmed which did it. (Tone.) Might have been 69. Could be overall play from them. (Like Oversoul's 49 didn't look like a scum move.) Heck, it could have been gut. (Almost certainly not, but possible.)
Quite frankly, I don't remember.
I do think it was early-game, though. Likely first five pages.My academy.
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Then vote.
Also,Mod: V/LA Friday until Monday.My academy.
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I'd be willing to wagon Chair.My academy.
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Kayne has three votes by my count right now.
Chair has two.
Is there anyone here who strongly disagrees with one of those two being our lynch today?My academy.
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Indeed. (Sucks. I wanna play in some games, but can't because, well, y'know, overstretching is bad.) It'll be happening again, for the record, pretty soon. (Less so, in that I'll have access every day. Just said access will be from 10 PM until 6 AM, so I'll be posting at the times nobody is on.)Zepher wrote:I feel like Mastin has been awfully quiet this game, but he’s also been quite V/LA soooo…. /null opinion
Skimming the P40 walls, since I'm just now back. I maintain SpyreX/Chair isn't townVtown (small chance of scumVscum, even). Not sure about Yos2/Zepher. Gut says Zepher is town for mistakenly thinking two scumteams, if I'm reading the "scum, other scum" part of his post correctly.
[broken record]/Will be giving more when I have access to my notes.[/broken record]My academy.
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MrZepher wrote:Scum: Saporovirus, Mastin, Yosarian
Other scum: Kanye, Idher, Kunkstar
Null: Spyrex, Chair
Townier than null: KoC, Oversoul
^That.My academy.
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Like I said. It's obviously wrong, but unless I misread it, it's a town-slip. (Since scum obviously would know there weren't two scumteams.)My academy.
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Lines like these are why you're not on my town-list, Spy.SpyreX wrote:I'd lean that way too but its soo strange it bothers me intrinsically (like the Idher business).
...And quite frankly are in the suspect list. (See: "Chair/Spy not townVtown".)My academy.
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Tone, Spy.
It's off for you.
Your tone, doesn't seem right.My academy.
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I suppose.My academy.
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"I'm looking into it tonight."
"I'm looking into it."
"I'll get back to you after I look into it."
...How many people are actually paying attention to this game?!? >_< (I realize I am theoretically among those names. )
Still think Zepher's town, though not as much as before.My academy.
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^That's what I meant.Mastin wrote:{SpyreX,Chair}, and {Kayne, Yosarian} looks like it's one scum in each group.
I disagree with Kunk. Generally, scum tend to spread the names out as evenly as possible. One in scum (theoretically, Yos2, possibly Kunk--but it is possible this one's all town), one in null (If Yos2 is town, Chair. My second guess, Kayne), and one in town. (Let's include "really town" as well. My guess here is either KoC or Spy, but it's depending on the lower tier of Null. Chair-->more likely KoC, Kayne-->more likely Spy.)
Additionally, I still maintain that the Emp lynch probably contained two scum. (Potentially three, but doubtful that they'd risk it all.)
{SpyreX, Knight of Cydonia,T-Bone, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2,Oversoul, Hiraki, saporovirus}
And 'coincidentally', pretty much all of my suspects are in there, too. The only one absent is Chair.My academy.
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Put briefly:
TOWN:
02. MrZepher x Swag136 (force-replaced and blacklisted D1)
07. Îdher (Amrun + Ether hydra) x | x
15. Oversoul x
NULL
01. saporovirus x | x The Mask (replaced out D1) (town-lean)
16. kunkstar7 x (?)
SUSPECT:
05. Magister Ludi Knight of Cydonia (replaced out D3) (.)FormerlyMutually exclusive with Kayne
06. kanyeknowsbest x (.)FormerlyMutually exclusive with Ludi/KoC;Mutually exclusive with Yosarian2Currently
09. SpyreX (Mutually exclusive with Chair.)
13. Chair (implosion + Misder) (Mutually exclusive with SpyreX.)
17. Yosarian2 x Parabollocks (replaced out D1) (Town Lean;Mutually exclusive with Kayne.)
Three names are scum. Spy/Chair is one. Kayne/KoC-Ludi/Yos2 is two. (Potentially [but doubtfully] three.) The third is likely one of my null reads. (It depends on whether {Kayne, KoC/Ludi, Yos2} contains one or two scum.)My academy.
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I don't.Magister Ludi wrote:Mastin, why do you think the scum were all on the empking wagon, as opposed to all off, or a mixture?
I think two were on, one was off.
The scum knew he was getting lynched, they wanted to get the bookie shot. Additionally, lynching Empking is (theoretically) free town-cred.
It's the same thing with SK/Opposite Scumfaction Lynches when you think about it. Lynching the SK/OSF looks pro-town, right? It's something nobody's supposed to be suspicious of; you helped lynch scum! Thing is, I've found SK/OSF Lynches to contain a significantly higher percentage of scum than normal.
Same thing applies to here--confirmed scum; NOT lynching Empking would be considered scummy, right? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight?
(No. For the multiple reasons outlined in-thread. But they didn't think that at the time.)
Why WOULDN'T there be more than one scum on the wagon? There should be two.
While theoretically possible to be three, like I said, I don't think they'd risk all three.
Two, on the other hand, is perfectly acceptable.My academy.
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You read that wrong. KoC was mutually exclusive with you. As in, I read that one of you was town, the other scum. I'm less convinced of this now, and need to look into it some more.Kayne wrote:Why do you think Ludi and I are mutually exclusive with Yos? Also can you explain your Zepher town read?
Currently, I believe that you and Yosarian2 are mutually exclusive alignments, and that one of you is scum and the other is town.
Swag was obv-town. Simple as that. Zepher's play seemed to be town as well. I didn't see scum Motivation in his moves. I didn't see scum Tone in his posts. I didn't see any condemning interactions from him. And speaking in more traditional scumhunting terms, I don't see any real evidence against him. The same applies to his predecessor, only moreso. The guy's obv-town.Also can you explain your Zepher town read?My academy.
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Magister Ludi wrote:Mastin, it looks to me like you are trying to chain a grip of lynches and scum reads around an event that was apparently going to be happening no matter what: that being the empking scum lynch.
^For the record.
Lines like these are beginning to tip the scales in Ludi's direction.
As in, making Ludi scum.My academy.
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No, Ludi. Just no.
It doesn't work that way.
If I were scum, I'd be saying exactly what happened in the game, since that's what my biased viewpoint says would look the most likely.
In other words, if I were scum, there'd be two scum on the wagon and I'd be the scum off.
If you meant in general, well, I'm seeing pretty much equal numbers of people push "scum on" as "scum off". If anything, there's a slight margin in favor of "scum off", which pretty much guarantees the correct answer is "scum on". (What? Makes sense to ME! )My academy.
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Among many other reasons, this is one of the things, too.SpyreX wrote:Zephyr coming in and correcting you mastin, more than anything, makes me think town.My academy.
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...Oh. I mis-remembered. I was thinking I had Mask as a previous town-read.
BLASTED MEMORY!(It always lies...)My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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That re-orders the Null list. Sapo moves below Kunk (dead-on null, and I suspect will remain dead-on null the entire game. [Which probably means Kunk's town. ]) Sapo is Null, heavy (HEAVY) scum-lean.
Scratch that. Sapo's scum. Kunk's town.
{Kayne, Yos2, KoC/Ludi} contains 1 scum. (80% sure of that, now. 19% being 2 scum. A gratuitous 1% for all-town, which quite frankly I find pretty much impossible.)
{SpyreX, Chair} contains 1 scum.
{SpyreX, Knight of Cydonia, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2, saporovirus}
Sapo's one of the scum. Since all three of KoC, Kayne, and Yos2 are on the wagon, that means that SpyreX is more likely town, which makes Chair looking far more likely scum.
Yeah, this is looking nice. Real nice.
Let's take a stab at the dark.
I'll be checking into this further, but for now?
.Calling It: The scumteam is Saporovirus, Chair, and Magister Ludi.
Unvote, Vote: ChairMy academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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([/leaving]. Will be back in a couple hours or so.)My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Call me paranoid, but both of my other scumreads going against Sapo is making me doubt that scumread.
Meh, we'll get around to it after both of my scumreads are dead and figure out the WIFOM then.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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I've really seen nothing convincing me my reads are even remotely wrong.
Ludi, Chair, they're bleeding scumtells in all their posts.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Nah, they just got stronger.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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*yawns*
This game's boring once you figure out the scumteam. It kinda robs all of the fun out of the game when you know you're right. I skipped pretty much all of Ludi's BS wall, since Ludi's scum and there's no point in really reading it.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Why do you think I tend not to bother making them, anymore?
(I really do hate building walls.)My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Spoiler: ramblingMy academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Me, less so.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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(Lynching your third scumread, your tertiary suspect, is far inferior to lynching your primary or secondary suspect. I think Sapo's scum, sure--but I'm less sure of it than my other two scumreads, especially with one of them supporting the lynch. If any of my reads are to be wrong, Sapo's the one most likely to be it.
That's not a good lynch to me. Not yet, anyway.)My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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(Oh, and Ludi weakly supports the wagon, too.)My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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What's your pick for the scumteam again, Ether? I remember only a Sapo suspicion off the top of my head.
What are your thoughts on--for example--Ludi?My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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If people aren't voting Chair due to V/LA.Kunk wrote:With Chair V/LA, I see that wagon stalling due to responses
I.
Will.
Hunt.
Them.
Down.
In.
Real.
Life.
And.
STRANGLE THEM!
(You realize how much I hate seeing a wagon fall apart because the player's V/LA, right? What would you think if Sapo were to go V/LA for two weeks? "Oh, we'll wagon Sapo when Sapo gets back."? HECK NO.)My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Also,
^That is why I'm not hammering. Both my other scumspects have Sapo suspicion, for instance. It could be weak bussing, but the wagon is unnerving me.Mastin wrote:If any of my reads are to be wrong, Sapo's the one most likely to be it.
Like I said. I definitely want Sapo dead due to the significant chance of being scum, preferably well before lylo--it's just, I don't want Sapo dead now; I want to lynch Chair and Ludi first and work out from there whether Sapo's scum or not.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Should announce it here, as well. It won't be a problem (since I have internet access--just really slow, at a really unfortunate time, with access to my game-notes being extremely inconvenient), butV/LA from 7/16 'til 7/22.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Hey, what'd I mi--
*reads thread*
Right, like I wasn't even gone. Hi, useless posts! It's Mastin, here, on vacation. No offense, but I'm hoping you die in a fire, soon, because we kinda need a lynch right now, and preferably not Sapo(/replacement).My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Dang it. With all the (admittedly weak) town-tells from Lamb, I'm beginning to doubt the scum-read on that slot. >_< (There's also the whole, "Ludi and Chair both support it" thing.)
Can we please lynch Chair instead?My academy.
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