Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over


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Post Post #798 (isolation #0) » Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:41 pm

Post by qwints »

Hey everyone, reading now.
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Post Post #799 (isolation #1) » Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:02 pm

Post by qwints »

Maenara and Telo are scum. Thurhame/10506670 is suspicious. Maenara is the best player of the bunch, so:

VOTE: vote: Maenara

Also, what the hell's with the Mason claim?
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Post Post #800 (isolation #2) » Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:03 pm

Post by qwints »

Damn, first time using the new tag. In case it's needed for a parser:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Maenara

nope, doing everything manually. Feel free to use your favorite tag
Last edited by mykonian on Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #801 (isolation #3) » Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:51 pm

Post by qwints »

In post 180, Maenara wrote:
Why, then, do I vote for Pirate Mollie? Because she's bad for town. Like, terribad. In all seriousness, I don't get why she's allowed to continue to exist. She's slinging around accusations based on concepts she clearly doesn't understand, she was straight up lying, concerning me "fading", and she's trying to game the mod. It's just not something we should allow to continue. If not a lynch, I plead for any hypothetical vigilante or similar to put her out of our misery - I know that some might say that her flailing will allow us to determine her alignment on a later day, but all too often, on other sites, I've seen hordes of people with play so bad that one cannot possibly tell their scum from their town, because both are just that anti-town. She really is the typical VI.


In post 199, Maenara wrote:We love you too, Hiraki.

But fine, the overwhelming consesus has persuaded me to believe that Pirate Mollie is probably just NewbTown. Even so, if there is a vig or something, I don't think Eleison or Pirate Mollie would be the worst target.


In post 343, Maenara wrote:Hell, I mainly switched
off
Mollie because she seemed unlynchable. I'd say my read has since muddled, but that'd be a bit of a lie - It never was clear to start with; I just think she's a severely harmful VI who should be policy lynched. If she is scum, not lynching her today will give her basically free reins the rest of the game, because, hey, what can top this? If she's town, she'll continue to clutter up the thread with nonsense, the way she has been, which will distract us from the actual scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Pirate Mollie

L-5.

In post 454, Maenara wrote:Jun, stop defending people via month-old meta. It's not solid enough.

We would get tons of valuable information via a Mollie-lynch, but seeing as that won't happen...

UNVOTE: pirate mollie
VOTE: 10506670

Slandaar for president, Numbers for death! Gogo, scum-lynch the scum-slip.

In post 598, Maenara wrote:Yadda yadda. Yes, I'm not adding much to the game, much in the same way as I generally try to refrain from building houses on top of active volcanoes.

Would everyone be so kind as to
post your top-three lynch list, or your reasons for not releasing this
, as your very next post. That way, we might actually settle on an agreement, rather than just letting the mudslinging continue into day 2? Thank you.

This thread is a hassle to read, and we need a new day.

Personal list, no particular order:

Pirate Mollie
Shinori
Telo


These are the posts that make me suspect Maenara. I can't find a way to reconcile the proposition that Pirate is newb town with Maenara's actions.
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Post Post #814 (isolation #4) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:06 am

Post by qwints »

Maenara:
The activity and pressure you were generating didn't help town, but it made you appear to be an active player. You took far too few risks in applying pressure for your play to be very helpful.

1) Early policy lynches are a scum goldmine - you get a wagon based on people thinking someone is stupid rather than scummy.
2) You gave inconsistent reasons for wanting a molly lynch: lynching a VI does not normally yield "tons of valuable information"
3) You haven't followed up, at all, on the Molly lynch, despite being one of the most consistent advocates of it.

So, please answer the following questions:
What "valuable information" did we learn from lynching mollie?; and
Is there a reason to not connect you and Telo?
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Post Post #816 (isolation #5) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:06 am

Post by qwints »

In post 809, Smashbard wrote:
We were bread-crumbing our masonic claim to reference day 2 later in the game in case one of us ate a nightkill in order to prevent Mafia from being able to counter claim as the dead masons partner. ...

Elieson had already piled on half the number of votes needed to lynch them. I made a rash, last minute decision to save them from any further votes. I saw how quickly the Shinori lynch piled up. It wasn't too far of a stretch for me to believe that if I didn't act then, Elieson could very well be dead before dessert.


So, was the fact that you hadn't finished bread crumbing relevant? Or were you afraid Elieson would get lynched before either of you had an opportunity to claim?
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Post Post #817 (isolation #6) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:07 am

Post by qwints »

As as aside, it's hysterical that Smashbard misspelled "Eleison" in his posts and his bread crumbing.
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Post Post #819 (isolation #7) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 3:47 am

Post by qwints »

First, sorry for the burst of posts - I'm trying to get caught up, and I don't like doing the whole omnibus post thing.

In post 775, Maenara wrote:Assuming three scum and a SK (That'd be a reasonable distribution, no?) ... This would, of course, necessitate a blocked kill this night, but that too is a possibility.


In post 796, Maenara wrote:Three anti-town roles in a 16-player game is too few. Whether or not one is a SK is not what matters.


In post 804, Maenara wrote:Everyone can see that it's
virtually guaranteed
there'd be at least 4 anti-town players, and I'm guessing that there's a SK or similar because
I find that most
16-man games would probably have some sort of 3rd party.


This sequence is also strange to me. Maenara, who "no likey" theory discussion (post 12) and is surrounded by "more experienced" players (post 91) assumes that there is a third part involved based on her experience with 16-man games - despite her only other games being 2 newbie games and 1 large theme. Set-up speculation at this stage seems unhelpful given the fact the only info we have is 2 flipped townies and 2 claimed masons.

An amateur player who dislikes theory discussion performing premature setup speculation SCREAMS hidden information to me. The roles aware of a blocked night kill would be:
1)any mafia member if the mafia kill didn't go through;
2)a serial killer whose kill didn't go through; or
3)a town power role who somehow gained hidden information (no one should speculate on this at this point for obvious reasons)

So, a cumulative list of my outstanding questions for

Maenara:
Q: What "valuable information" did we learn from lynching mollie?
Q: Is there a reason to not connect you and Telo?
Q: What was the point of post 775?

Smashbard:
Q: Did you claim because you were worried about not finishing bread-crumbing, or just because you worried about a Elieson speed-lynch?

Telo's replacement:
Q: How do you react to me saying I think you're scum alongside Maenara?

Jun:
Q: Are you bussing Maenara?
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Post Post #821 (isolation #8) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:22 am

Post by qwints »

Maenara, you said "We would get tons of valuable information via a Mollie-lynch," in post 454. There was a mollie-lynch. Now you're backing off that earlier statement by saying it's too soon to say, but that others probably think scum voted for a lynch. That's not good enough. What information, if any, do
you
believe we learned from lynching Pirate Mollie?
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Post Post #824 (isolation #9) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:27 am

Post by qwints »

In post 822, Maenara wrote:I'm not certain yet.

There. Is that clear enough?


Clear enough to convince me you're my top target.
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Post Post #827 (isolation #10) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:42 am

Post by qwints »

In post 825, Maenara wrote:Then there is not very much I can do to convince you otherwise.


Sure there is. Either tell us what information we gained from a lynch you said would gain information or tell us what changed that made your previous statement incorrect. Alternatively, argue that the question is premature or irrelevant. This is the first time you've been under any scrutiny. React!

dividizzle: You said Maenara's behavior "is interesting" in 773. Do you think she's scum? Should we lynch her?

NJAC: Pick a target. All you've done on Day 2 is label Shinori as "incredibly anti-town" before backing off that claim in your very next post. Who should we lynch?
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Post Post #837 (isolation #11) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:47 am

Post by qwints »

Okay, I'm convinced mason claim is legit, though I think it was unnecessary. Look at Smashbard's early post defending Eliesen:
In post 15, Smashbard wrote:
Trying to get Eleison to elaborate on his motives is either panicked rolefishing on your part or reasonable pressure for answers. I'm leaning towards town motivations for you, because I agree that trying to hold secrets out loud this early in the game is not needed.

Follow that up with further defenses in posts 292, 297, 321, 350. Combine that with Elison's clumsy bread-crumb at the beginning, and the premature mason claim, and you've got either the boldest scum I've ever seen or actual masons with one being a little panicky.

Bumping my unanswered questions:

dividizzle: You said Maenara's behavior "is interesting" in 773. Do you think she's scum? Should we lynch her?

NJAC: Pick a target. All you've done on Day 2 is label Shinori as "incredibly anti-town" before backing off that claim in your very next post. Who should we lynch?
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Post Post #840 (isolation #12) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:22 am

Post by qwints »

Smashbard, remember that even though Maenara wasn't on the final Mollie wagon, she was pushing it quite hard. See my 801.
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Post Post #844 (isolation #13) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:36 am

Post by qwints »

Maenara, who are your top 3 scum-candidates if you flip town after we lynch you?
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Post Post #850 (isolation #14) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:24 am

Post by qwints »

Re-reading to evaluate Jun-Hiraki-Telo connections. I feel like you've overstating the number of players Hiraki yelled at.
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Post Post #858 (isolation #15) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:37 pm

Post by qwints »

Broadly speaking, telo has basically spent the entire game without really accusing anyone else of scummy behavior. She's spent her time being defensive, advocating policy lynches on lurkers and complementing other people on their play. That seems scummy. Since I also think Maenara is scummy I looked for connections, and found a couple posts.


In post 127, Telo wrote:I get suspicious of vote trading. So I'm keeping an eye on maenara/pirate mollie and theomaoaner/jun.


This sort of non-committal suspicion without a vote is scummy. It gives you room to come back and say, oh I was against them from the beginning without actually applying pressure. It's also painting with a broad bush, allowing you to pick whatever wagon you want later. Note the inclusion of maenara.

In post 466, Telo wrote:
In post 464, Maenara wrote:Reread the latest page(s) and rewrite, please. Your [data regarding Mollie] is outdated.

I don't feel that it is Maenara, especially in light of her last post where she reiterates that she will not fight her lynch. I don't like the wagon on her and really don't want to jump on it so I'm going to hang back for a minute and see if I can get anymore to go on.
In post 465, pirate mollie wrote:who is standing out to you right now?

I'm still liking Mysterious. He says he'll give out reads after page six and still nothing. I placed my vote on him and all I got was "I'm still here" in response.

That's not good enough for me. I'd much rather leave my vote on him than move it to you but I don't think my lone vote is enough pressure.
For now I'm going to stick with my reads as well. My vote will remain on Mysterious and I'll keep watching your wagon for developments.


This post is bizarre given her post right before it. She was willing to vote Mollie, but suddenly doesn't like the wagon. Telo said "I'm going to change my vote." Maenara says something to Telo, and then Telo doesn't change her vote. That's my primary evidence for a link.
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Post Post #861 (isolation #16) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:46 pm

Post by qwints »

10506670, if you think Jun is the most scummy, why not vote him?
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Post Post #866 (isolation #17) » Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:50 am

Post by qwints »

In post 862, buldermar wrote:I think that the other people who went along with your assessment and jumped to the conclusion that I'm sheeping without 1) asking me questions and/or 2) ISO'ing me, has their alignments skewed towards scum for this reason.


Who, if anyone, did this?

Rereading Hiraki in iso, I don't see a pattern of global abuse. Posters who were abused (insulted or cursed at) include:

  • EPM (now qwints)
    PMy (now combinatorialEnigma)
    Mcstab (now buldermar)
    Pirate Molly
    Theomoaner
    Smashbard
    Maemara


So 7 of the 15 players who could have been abused were attacked. Now, he interacted with 5 others - Elieson, NJAC, Slandaar, Shinori and Jun - but I wouldn't label those posts as attacks or abuse. That leave thurhame (now 10506670), telo, and dividizzle. Dividizzle is never mentioned, but he has been lurking a lot. Hiraki lightly defends both (thurhame/10506670) in 408 and Telo in 145 and 681. In addition, there are a lot of comments that grudgingly complement on their play or find it understandable.

While I do see your argument for a Hiraki-Telo-Jun connection given that Hiraki has 'defended' Telo and Jun by calling them inexperienced, Hiraki has done something similar for (thurhame/(now 10506670)). Hirkai also criticized Jun in 168. So, I think that there is some good evidence about connections between players here, but I'm reluctant to draw conclusions until we flip one of the group. I could certainly be persuaded to switch my vote to 10506670 or Telo since I think both of them have been scummy.
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Post Post #868 (isolation #18) » Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:03 am

Post by qwints »

OK. I thought you were saying people who had followed Sham after the post you cited (838). Do you still think Shinori is the most likely scum? What do you think of hiraki and maenara being last on/first on the shinori wagon?
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Post Post #869 (isolation #19) » Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:05 am

Post by qwints »

EBWOP "followed Smashbard"

Actually, let me direct that last question to hiraki and maenara:

Why did you join the shinori wagon and why did you get off?
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Post Post #872 (isolation #20) » Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:28 am

Post by qwints »

In post 870, NJAC wrote:
I see your point on Telo, but still think Mae is a better lynch. Actually without a replacement there's nothing we can get from Telo's slot, so I'm not sure a wagon makes sense here.


I'm assuming someone replaces Telo before the day ends, and I find having some replace in to a game where there's already a wagon on them generates all sorts of useful information.

I'd like to see your case on Thurhame/numbers, is that the whole "scumslip/scumtell" thing?


It's weakest which is why I only called him suspicious. I don't find the "scumslip" thing persuasive, but I do find the death of Slandaar a data point worth remembering.

In post 131, Thurhame wrote:@theomoaner:
Jun's temporary pressure vote on evilpacman isn't a scumtell. He did the same thing in my last game.


Defending a player early on is scummy to me, especially when it's using meta rather than attacking the accuser.


In post 191, Thurhame wrote:
I think my previous Townread on Jun was bias from last game where he was Town. He can be null for now. I still don't see much in the arguments against him.


This may be the most non-committal post of the game. Non-committal posts are scummy.

In post 447, 10506670 wrote:

That being said, I am willing to move the game forward to some more interesting discussions by voting Pirate Mollie. And I will do so:

VOTE: pirate mollie


The replacement continues waffling. He votes "to move the game forward" rather than because he thinks someone is scummy.

In post 714, 10506670 wrote:

We're in big trouble if this keeps up though. Anti-town behavior is distracting us from any real scum discussion. Hoping that we can move past that next day.

VOTE: Shinori


Another vote for policy reasons father than because he thinks the target is scummy.
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Post Post #879 (isolation #21) » Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:24 am

Post by qwints »

Maenara, you need to give us more - make a case or be lynched. Also, let's talk about your scum list from yesterday:

In post 598, Maenara wrote:
Pirate Mollie
Shinori
Telo


Pirate Mollie flipped town, and Shinori now seems "genuinely seemed town-like" (Post 871). But instead of dealing with Telo
at all
, you moved on to Eleison and NJAC. You had mentioned both day 1, trying to get Eleison lynched for bread-crumbing (scummy) and NJAC lynched for active lurking.

So, I want you to:
1) Make a case against your top suspect
2) List who you think is associated with that suspect
3) Explain why you've dropped Telo as a suspect

Until then, my vote stays.
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Post Post #882 (isolation #22) » Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:44 am

Post by qwints »

In post 880, Maenara wrote:stop looking for by-the-book tells for a moment


So you admit you're giving off by-the-book tells?
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Post Post #886 (isolation #23) » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:07 am

Post by qwints »

Maenara, here are they key points I've made against you:

  • Maenara said she, thought Pirate Mollie was newb town but encouraged a lynch while staying off the wagon.
    You've responded by saying you loathed Mollie's play style.


  • Maenara said a PM lynch would generate info, but now says she hasn't learned any information.
    You've said the lynch happened differently than you thought it would. You've cleared the only person you seem to think the lynch generated negative information on: Shinori (829 then 871)


  • Maenara's weird assumption about the set-up.
    You've said you were making assumptions for the sake of the argument.


  • Maenara's inconsistency regarding her scum lists.
    You've said you don't remember why, and that it was a mistake.


I don't find these to be persuasive defenses, and you've responded to pressure by saying things like "Then there is not very much I can do to convince you otherwise." You've also claimed that your wagon is going too easily, but I think it's actually been more difficult to generate pressure on you than at least the Shinori wagon. You're at L-3 with a counter-wagon being pushed fairly hard (though it does have at least a mason I'm treating as confirmed town).
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Post Post #888 (isolation #24) » Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:27 am

Post by qwints »

Hiraki, why are you still voting a mason?
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Post Post #890 (isolation #25) » Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:01 pm

Post by qwints »

A claimed mason who shoulg not be lynched today?
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Post Post #903 (isolation #26) » Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:18 am

Post by qwints »

Based on buldermar's legitimate point on my question to Hiraki -Hiraki, why is your vote on a claimed mason? I think the claim is plausible enough that we shouldn't lynch Eleison or Smashbard today, do you disgree?

I am really reluctant to use someone replacing out as a tell for two reasons. First, I worry that, whether people use it as a scum tell or town tell, it might create a meta that discourages people from requesting replacement. I would much rather have someone request replacement than flake out or tune out because they found another player intolerable. Second, there are enough real life reasons and sensitivities that I'd rather take people who replace out at their word rather than pile onto someone who's doing the responsible thing. Once someone says, "I'm out" that should be the end of analyzing that player - though, of course, not of analyzing their slot.

In post 896, theomoaner wrote:]I could maybe accept Maenara as a Vig, SK or other anti-town third party.


Would you mind clarifying this phrase? I feel that something is wrong with it. I'd like no one else to comment on this point until theo rephrases.

In post 896, theomoaner wrote:
I can't see [Maenara] as scum at the moment because I can't see her fitting in with the rest of my scum-reads.


So, per 849, your current scum read is Jun, Hiraki and Telo. But in 865, you pointed out a post(89) where Hiraki praised Maenara for calling out a breadcrumb rather than attacking her. Why did you point that out if you didn't think it established a connection between Hiraki and Maenara?
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Post Post #907 (isolation #27) » Sat Oct 06, 2012 4:06 am

Post by qwints »

Sorry for the incoming wall, but it's a pretty major shift in my thinking and I wanted to get it all out there.

UNVOTE: Maenara
VOTE: Shinori

In post 904, buldermar wrote:
Q: What is your read on me? You seem to be warry about most but didn't comment on me at all. Will you be willing to lynch Shinori? What is your read on Shinori? How do you think Maenara flipping scum would affect the alignment of Shinori, and vice versa?


Your slot's activity level is low enough I don't have a good read on you yet. You've done two things that bother me a little: 1) I feel like you slightly misrepresented the situation where shashbard accused you of sheeping by quoting people who had attacked you before the Shashbard post you quoted; 2) Lightly pressuring people who taken the claimed masons as town. Specifically, correcting (accurately) my question to Hirakia and asking NJAC why he thinks masons should lead. But neither of these are very solid evidence against you.

Yes, I would be willing to lynch Shinori. The "I won't hammer myself" post combined with the self-meta defense seem scummy to me. It seems like someone who believes that not self-hammering clears himself, and thus he could be subverting his meta there. The massive stampede away from Shinori to Eleison after one defensive post also make me believe that the first few off (Hiraki, NJAC and Maenara) could share Shinori's alignment. Of course, since the alternative wagon was Eleison, who I'm currently treating as confirmed town, they might have been indifferent between two mislynches and maybe thought they might find a PR.

Specifically, if shinori is scum, I would expect the three who were first on/first off to be scum - NJAC looks the scummiest of the three for being last on, second off. Especially given the paucity of reasoning in the unvote. If shinori is town, I would expect those three to be slightly less likely to be scum - tempered by the wagon they moved onto. If shinori is town, and Eleison later flips scum for some reason, I think the three are practically confirmed town.

Maenara, however, has a confounding factor. That confounding factor is post 562, which I hadn't fully considered in context yet. The last vote count read in part:

In post 551, mykonian wrote:
votecount


10506670 (5): maenara, smashbard, theomoaner, eleison, dividizzle
pirate mollie (3): Hiraki, jun, slandaar
shinori (1): pirate mollie


theomoaner then jumped from 10506670 to Mollie in 553. Giving each 4 votes. Then maenara makes this post:

In post 562, Maenara wrote:
In post 561, theomoaner wrote:I'm seeing a pattern here.


So am I. Namely, this game isn't going anywhere.

Now, I haven't been here a lot. There are a number of reasons for that, chief of which are physical illness, bad mood, and a serious wish to avoid having to read through this. Now that the former two are mostly gone, I had to do away with the third as well.

You people sure don't make it easy.

What we need, right now, if this game is to get anywhere, is a lynch. Not just any lynch, of course, but not because anyone is particularly indispensable - Only because we wouldn't be able to get just any lynch through. Whenever we find something legitimately scummy - and we have, multiple times - we split into damned fractions and get nowhere. Let's face it, a lot of us are bad players. For most of us who are, it's because we're new, but that doesn't change the facts. And so we tunnel on certain individuals, so we refuse to follow their leads, or those of the people who agree with them.

And we'll never get anywhere like that.

There's been a lot of activity already, there honestly has. It hasn't been a full Day 1 yet, but it's gotten a bit of the way. But we're stalling, because this is turning into a quagmire. So we need a target we can all agree on. Not necessarily the most scummy to any given person, but someone we can all agree that we need to remove.

That person is, of course,
Shinori
.

I don't want to lynch him the most. There are others who I find legitimately scummy. He's not so much one of them. But he is terrible. He has done nothing to move the game forward, what-so-ever, he has tunnelled almost solely on two players, and worst of all? He's said that he doesn't care if we lynch him.

No town ever says that when they're not in danger.

He's not the lynch Gotham wants, but he's the lynch Gotham needs.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shinori


Maenara unvotes from 10506670 (a "scum slip" vote) and votes for Shinori. She is the second person voting for Shinori after Pirate Mollie. My theory has been that Maenara is scum who is opportunistic but cautious. She was on a lot of wagons, but avoided making strong cases against anyone. I had counted this one as similar because of the fact that she's making a policy lynch argument. BUT WHY NOT SWITCH TO MOLLIE? There was a move away from 10506670 after his explanations for the scum slip and a move to mollie - who she had voted before and who was annoying a lot of people. A mollie vote makes mollie the only viable wagon. Instead she votes for Shinori, who only has a mollie vote that mollie diavowed in post 545. After this, smashbard confirms his willingness for a shinori lynch, but suggests other targets. Jun, in 572, says "I refuse to vote for numbers guy or shinori." Theo dismisses a shinori lynch as near-deadline panic. And mollie seals her fate with dramatically stupid posting. Maenara then lists pirate mollie on the top of a "in no particular order" scumlist along with shinori and telo, but doesn't change her vote. [post 598 is one of the biggest reasons I think Maenara is scum]

I've got a lot of questions about this now, and it's making me re-evaluate my Maenara=scum read. Why didn't Maenara raise this in her own defense when being attacked for being opportunistic? Is it possible (If shinori is scum) Maenara was insulating herself against a connection with Shinori while thinking Shinoria was safe? Alternatively, (If shinori is town), could Maenara have been laying the groundwork for another VI lynch on D2? Those are the only two things I can think of where the Shinori vote day 1 is not a town tell.

The Shinori wagon dissolved too easliy, Shinori's meta defense could be a scum ploy, and Shinori has basically vanished since the attention on him disappeared. I'm now thrown off enough by reviewing Maenara's play to change my vote.
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Post Post #909 (isolation #28) » Sat Oct 06, 2012 4:41 am

Post by qwints »

Hiraki, I want to be sure this question doesn't get lost:

Why is your vote still on a claimed mason?
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Post Post #912 (isolation #29) » Sat Oct 06, 2012 5:05 am

Post by qwints »

In post 910, Hiraki wrote:
Unvote


Should've done that before. Not sure why everyone's at arms toward it. Not like I was going to lynch with one vote.


You hadn't commented at all on the mason claim. I wasn't sure if you were taking the position that we should lynch anyway or that you didn't believe the claim.
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Post Post #915 (isolation #30) » Sat Oct 06, 2012 6:31 am

Post by qwints »

You're right, 10506670 was the L-1 vote, not NJAC. Doesn't change the analysis that much since NJAC still jumped on a competing wagon really fast. So, if Shinori town - NJAC is likely to be town, and if Shinori scum - NJAC is likely to be scum.

In shinori-scum world, I think that Shinori's partners jumped away as soon as they had an excuse. Thus Hiraki felt he had to bus (last on), and tried to save Shinori as soon as Shinori gave him an excuse (first off.) In shinori-town world, I think that Hiraki is trying to force activity from Shinori and gets off ASAP to avoid a scum-hammer. Of course that motivation could be true even if Shinori is scum.

I switched to a Shinori vote because I think I've gotten all Maenara going to give us in her defense (which does not speak well of her), and because I think you're correct about a second Shinori wagon giving more information. I'm now unsure enough of Maenara after reviewing her first Shinori vote to go along with this, and after examination, Shinori's self-meta seems really scummy.
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Post Post #917 (isolation #31) » Sat Oct 06, 2012 6:50 am

Post by qwints »

We certainly shouldn't assume the entire set of scum was on the Shinori wagon.
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Post Post #924 (isolation #32) » Sun Oct 07, 2012 3:17 am

Post by qwints »

In post 921, Shinori wrote:
##Vote: Maenara


I'm fine with this lynch.


Care to specify what reasons make you think she's scum? It seems really scummy to join a wagon for no reason once you've received a little pressure. You're making me feel a lot better about my vote.
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Post Post #926 (isolation #33) » Sun Oct 07, 2012 3:22 am

Post by qwints »

In post 925, Eleison wrote:Guys, I'm apologizing for my lack of posting for the past few days. I took my kids to Disney (we flew out here this past Friday, and we return home this coming Friday. I never announced my V/LA, by sheer accident of being an overwhelmed parent keeping track of 2 children for disney. I am keeping up though, so when I can access a pc, or get time to dedicate to here, I will.
sorry again everyone.


Well have fun and stay sane. It would be really helpful if you could opine on three wagons: Shinori, Jun and Maenara - if you get the chance.
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Post Post #930 (isolation #34) » Sun Oct 07, 2012 6:04 am

Post by qwints »

Maenara if you're looking at "Jun/Dividizzle/CombinatorialEnigma/Buldermar" as anti-town, why try to start a wagon on dividizzle rather than join the already existing one on Jun?
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Post Post #934 (isolation #35) » Sun Oct 07, 2012 7:00 am

Post by qwints »

In post 933, Telo wrote:VOTE: Jun

I thought you were replacing out.
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Post Post #936 (isolation #36) » Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:40 am

Post by qwints »

Hiraki, I find the delaying posts worrying given that you're active elsewhere on the sight.
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Post Post #940 (isolation #37) » Sun Oct 07, 2012 10:11 am

Post by qwints »

I'm seriously reconsidering my Maenara scum read. I'll re-read later.
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Post Post #945 (isolation #38) » Sun Oct 07, 2012 12:16 pm

Post by qwints »

UNVOTE: Shinori
VOTE: Maenara
I am now firmly back on the Maenara=scum wagon. I see no way of reconciling the "motivations" behind these posts.

In post 698, Maenara wrote:The problem, in this game, with automatically declaring all lurkers scum is that, no matter how you put it, we have a lot of bad players. Yes, I'm amongst them, big surprise. Doesn't change that fact. And we've got people doing things they really shouldn't have. The only real activity is the Combi/Telo shouting match, Smash venting at everyone for doing nothing, and Theo bitching at everyone for doing nothing.

Yeah, we need to do something, but if this game is to get anywhere, lynching the worst offenders (I'm looking at Shinori here), would make it more readable
and
give us some info do actually analyze.


to these posts

In post 942, Maenara wrote:

Because short day = bad for town.


In post 944, Maenara wrote:He's not doing it anymore, and I wouldn't mind seeing him vigged or something, but I'm ambivalent on lynching him at current time when I have people who are scumreads rather than badtownreads.
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Post Post #950 (isolation #39) » Sun Oct 07, 2012 5:24 pm

Post by qwints »

Hiraki, you've only voted Shinori and Eleison today? Who else do you think is scummy?
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Post Post #971 (isolation #40) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 1:53 am

Post by qwints »

In post 951, Shinori wrote:
##Vote: Maenara.


My thoughts.

And yeah My main scum read is a supposed mason, However I still feel people on my wagon are the scum. Because easy misslynch would be amazing for scum.


Were you trying to fake hammer here?
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Post Post #974 (isolation #41) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:21 am

Post by qwints »

I'd like a lot more - "here are my reads on everyone" and a lot less "please don't kill me"
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Post Post #975 (isolation #42) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:22 am

Post by qwints »

In post 973, Maenara wrote:
Don't iso me. Rather, read my actions in context. Look at when I said what I said, and how things were(n't) proceeding.


But guys, I was being opportunistic!
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Post Post #979 (isolation #43) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 4:58 am

Post by qwints »

UNVOTE: Maenara

Ok, Hiraki. I'll listen to you for today. Back to Shinori wagon!

VOTE: Shinori

On a side note, I was re-reading an old game which had a scum mason. Can both masons confirm that they know that their partner is town?
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Post Post #980 (isolation #44) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:01 am

Post by qwints »

Actually wait, I can't find any breadcrumbs, at all, suggesting you're a PR with knowledge that Maenara is town. So, you're going to have to explain your post, but I'll leave my vote on Shinori to avoid a hammer until you do.
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Post Post #984 (isolation #45) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:18 am

Post by qwints »

Thanks, I'm glad that rule got added. A scum mason lost the game for town in Mafia 83.
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Post Post #987 (isolation #46) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:23 am

Post by qwints »

Hiraki, what has Maenara done that has changed your mind from being willing to hammer to actively fighting against her lynch?

Three cheers for Thebuttonmen!
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Post Post #996 (isolation #47) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:58 am

Post by qwints »

In post 949, Hiraki wrote:
I don't think I want Maenara but if the deadline gets closer, I'll hammer.


In post 978, Hiraki wrote:Maenara isn't scum and lynching him would be a bad idea.


In post 986, Hiraki wrote:
Maenara isn't scummy and I don't want to type a load but I generally agree with most of his views and can accept his logic when we differ.

He's not scum.


I really don't see what I was supposed to read that explains why you were willing to hammer in 949, but said "Maenara isn't scum" in 978 and 986. What, specifically, changed your mind?
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Post Post #1002 (isolation #48) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:27 am

Post by qwints »

Why would you ever hammer if you're "pretty damn sure" she's town?
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Post Post #1006 (isolation #49) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:54 pm

Post by qwints »

I thought he was making a PR claim. I backed off after re-reading, and his denial of that. I am currently planning on revoting Maenara as soon the TBM ways in, as I don't want a lynch without TBM making clear whether he supports his slot's current vote or not.
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Post Post #1014 (isolation #50) » Tue Oct 09, 2012 2:01 am

Post by qwints »

TBM, your vote is on Maenara - are you ok with that?
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #51) » Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:18 pm

Post by qwints »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Maenara

This thread has slowed too much to wait on TBM to change his vote. I'm presuming he knew where his vote was and chose to leave it there. Maenara's my scummiest read and there is where my vote belongs.
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Post Post #1022 (isolation #52) » Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:52 am

Post by qwints »

No one hammer without announcing intent to hammer.
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #53) » Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:01 am

Post by qwints »

Buldermar, could you please point out your defense of Maenara - all I can see is that you said you thought the case on her being opportunistic was thin, and that you thought it was more important to have a long day 2 than day 1.
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Post Post #1033 (isolation #54) » Wed Oct 10, 2012 3:46 am

Post by qwints »

Dammit Maenara, you keep throwing off my reads.

UNVOTE: Maenara while I review.

Buldermar, I don't think someone saying "this a more useful lynch" is saying that the other lynch is a bad lynch.
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Post Post #1036 (isolation #55) » Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:27 am

Post by qwints »

I'm focusing on lynching who I think is scummiest rather than trying to focus on who generates the most information. I'm surprised that you and Hiraki are defending her so much, and that she jumped on the Jun wagon. I also don't like who else was on the wagon. I'll re-read when I get a chance to try and figure this out.
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Post Post #1039 (isolation #56) » Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:46 am

Post by qwints »

I really don't like Jun's disappearance at this point. His drop in activity makes me think scum who's happy he can let townies tear themselves apart. He's really content to let others push the Maenara case without sticking his neck out.

VOTE: Jun[/unvote]
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Post Post #1040 (isolation #57) » Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:46 am

Post by qwints »

EBWOP:

VOTE: Jun
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Post Post #1049 (isolation #58) » Wed Oct 10, 2012 6:52 am

Post by qwints »

Look at Jun's iso, especially the silence before he became the leading wagon just now, and tell me how much more lurkish he could be today.
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Post Post #1059 (isolation #59) » Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:00 am

Post by qwints »

Because it didn't fit with my read of Maenara, and that's all I'll say about it for the moment. The wagon I referred to was the Maenara wagon - Eleison is the only one I feel good about. Right now I have town reads on the masons, theo and buldermar - and that's about it.
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Post Post #1086 (isolation #60) » Thu Oct 11, 2012 1:57 am

Post by qwints »

So apparently the only way to get meaningful activity out of Jun or Shinori is to put them close to a lynch. Let's see if it works on Enigma.

UNVOTE: Jun
VOTE: combinatorialEnigma
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Post Post #1089 (isolation #61) » Thu Oct 11, 2012 4:02 am

Post by qwints »

Enigma, why would you volunteer to claim with 2 votes on you? There are three other players who have more votes than you right now (I think).
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Post Post #1091 (isolation #62) » Thu Oct 11, 2012 4:12 am

Post by qwints »

Deadline is October 13th. I am not asking you to claim at this point, I would not make such a request until L-2 at the earliest (6 votes right now) or if there was an extenuating circumstance.
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Post Post #1095 (isolation #63) » Thu Oct 11, 2012 5:00 am

Post by qwints »

In post 1088, Hiraki wrote:Enigma replaced PMysterious.

Stop playing these silly games.


I don't understand what the point of this post is.
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Post Post #1098 (isolation #64) » Thu Oct 11, 2012 5:42 am

Post by qwints »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shinori
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Post Post #1108 (isolation #65) » Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:51 am

Post by qwints »

No, maenara counted correctly.

Mod, there are 7 names voting for Shinori currently
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #66) » Thu Oct 11, 2012 7:33 am

Post by qwints »

He's in Disneyland. He said he'd be back Friday.
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Post Post #1957 (isolation #67) » Mon Nov 12, 2012 5:57 pm

Post by qwints »

Brilliant performance is scum. Re-reading my iso is painful for how many times I pressed Hiraki on stuff without ever suspecting him.

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