Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over

[Eleison]

Guys, I'm apologizing for my lack of posting for the past few days. I took my kids to Disney (we flew out here this past Friday, and we return home this coming Friday. I never announced my V/LA, by sheer accident of being an overwhelmed parent keeping track of 2 children for disney. I am keeping up though, so when I can access a pc, or get time to dedicate to here, I will.
sorry again everyone.

[qwints]

Guys, I'm apologizing for my lack of posting for the past few days. I took my kids to Disney (we flew out here this past Friday, and we return home this coming Friday. I never announced my V/LA, by sheer accident of being an overwhelmed parent keeping track of 2 children for disney. I am keeping up though, so when I can access a pc, or get time to dedicate to here, I will.
sorry again everyone.

Well have fun and stay sane. It would be really helpful if you could opine on three wagons: Shinori, Jun and Maenara - if you get the chance.

[dividizzle]

Why did you consider the wagon scum-driven? Who do you think was driving it?

It was more than one post delayed. It could be interpreted as if you were deliberately postponing voting to allow picking a target more likely to get lynched. That is scummy.

I found it perculiar that you would make a case against me in that way without really following up on it. It could be interpreted as if you were testing if others were willingly buying it before placing your vote. Avoidance of placing votes could be scummy because it allows for it not to be too "locked", which would lead to missing out on other lynching opportunities.

I think it's important that we get a clear answer from Hiraki soon regarding Shinori.

It was the fact that town had just driven a mistaken lynch in Pirate Mollie and while I was feeling hesitant, others seemed very willing to quickly load up on another wagon. As I just pointed out, it surprised me to go back and see that both masons (whose claim I am trusting for the moment) were on it.

It was one of MY posts delayed, perhaps you were unclear about that. And it occurred after all that stupid arguing that derailed a lot of things. Then I did look at voting and rather than making a ‘case’ against you, I pointed out something interesting.

[mykonian]

votecount

maenara (5): jun, eleison, NJAC, dividizzle, shinori
jun (4): smashbard, theomoaner, combinatorialEnigma, 10506670
shinori (2): buldermar, qwints
combinatorialEnigma (1): Telo
NJAC (1): maenara

not voting (1): hiraki

With 14 players it is 8 to lynch (7 to no lynch)

Deadline is on the 13th of october

[Maenara]

Oh, bloody. I forgot to unvote.

Sorry.

UNVOTE: NJAC

With that out of the way ...

The Chronicles of the Terminally Insecure, Or
"Why We Need To Lynch Dividizzle":

Members of town, bussing scum, and Buldermar - Allow me to present a humble case on why Dividizzle has not been doing anything pro-town in this game, and why I'd appreciate it if he'd just lay down and die. "But surely Dividizzle has done nothing to deserve such a cruel fate," I hear you cry. But hasn't he? Truly, I had not considered him overly much, during the course of the game, but he recently caught my eye, and since then, my estimation of him has only turned worse.

Let me guide you through the infernal plains of his posts:

I'm not convinced by Eleison's plan either. @Eleison, you say you don't want to reveal your town reads but you also tell Mae and Mollie to stop intown bickering. Does that imply that you have a town read on them both?

A few posts into the game, Dividizzle is already busy looking for the reads of townies, the better to exploit them later, and align himself with fruitful wagons.

Unvote
Vote: Eleison

Sorry if this has already been mentioned as I read a little bit briefly while catching up but I am suspicious of Eleison's firm approval of Maenara's scum, town, inactivity list, given the fact that he is listed as number two on that list.

@Eleison: if you like those lists, how do you explain you appearing as scum to him?

Creating dissent within town, fishing for further elaboration and trying to make people slip up. Considering that we now know that Eleison is overwhelmingly likely to be town, this does not reflect too well on him.

After doing my reread, my initial reaction is that my two favored scum targets are NJAC and themoaner. Now I know that isn't terribly surprising because they have both drawn suspicion already but I want to point out a couple exchanges that made me question them.
In post 148, NJAC references themoaner and says he can’t tell if he’s scummy or not, keeping both distance and a lack of suspicion on him, then voting for someone else.
In post 183 he once again acknowledges that he had initial scum reactions to themoaner but then backs out.
Finally in post 242, NJAC questions why the wagon on themoaner died but quickly switches attention and places a vote on Slandaar for dubious reasons. It is worth noting that in the previous two posts he claimed that the wagon on themoaner didn’t look good, and then changed his mind to wonder why it didn’t go further.

I can’t tell if this is the play of a couple scum interacting. It raised suspicion with me because it just seemed very phony, as if placing some blame would distance him but not enough to actually cause themoaner any danger. Thoughts?

Also, just to add my opinions on two of the other most argued over players, I think both Pirate Mollie and Jun are giving me town vibes, albeit not in normal ways.

Picking targets already chosen by others, stokes the fire but refuses to commit. "I can't tell if this is the play of a couple of scum interacting" - then why say anything at all?

Lumping together a town member and a scumbuddy in the end, too, defending them both very vaguely, and trying to make town associate them with one another.

I agree that Mcstab's iso looks sketchy. Care to elaborate on why you wouldn't want a vote on him Slandaar?

An attempt to get people to focus on McStab; trying to start a wagon without committing on his own.

I just did a reread of Mollie's iso and here are some thoughts:

- I'm not as concerned about her wild scumhunting as themoaner is. While she does do quite a bit of jumping around, it strikes me as overzealous but not overtly suspicious.

- The references to the other mafia site do seem mildly scummy. I am not as held up over her self-description as new or not but she does use the other site and its different setup to deflect criticism or suspicion at times.

- The most town-leaning point for me is that Mollie and I have had some overlap in other scum suspicions. obviously this could mean that I have been incorrect, but it is hard to view Mollie as scum for that reason.

- I do agree that she has reacted poorly to pressure from votes.

@Slandaar: You seem confident about this vote but haven't articulated a case against Mollie, why do you find her so scummy?

"I think Mollie is town-like, only she's scummy, only she's a bit town-like, but she's still scummy." - Making sure to have plenty of options later on, eh? Also, in the end, "Please, Slandaar, tell me what you think so I can fit my views into that."

I could support a Mcstab lynch. Although the fact that we now know he has requested replacement means in theory we should give the replacement a chance to say hello.

Also @Slandaar: in reference to you saying that if we lynch a lurker it should be PMysterious, I think the case against NJAC goes beyond just lurking. I detailed the beginning of it in an earlier post and when i get more time tonight, I can state it more.

"Hey, I'm still totally in favour of you people lynching McStab, but I don't really want to commit to it, you know? Also, I can totally argue for why others are scum, so don't focus on the fence I'm sitting on, please?"

I would like to see what NJAC and PMysterious have to say in their return before I get behind the lynch of numberguy.

@NJAC and PMysterious: please thoughts on what has happened and on suspicion of your inactivity?

"Hey, uhm, yah. I'm still careful. Please say something so you can dig your own grave, instead of me shooting you."

@Smash: Usually scumslips scare me in terms of being a rationale for quicklynch because they seem like they are often toeing the line between damning and trivial. I also have just found that D1 is harder for me because I like to rely on analyzing a person's overall actions/interactions. I have to leave but more to post this afternoon.

Here he then goes on to explain that no, he totally can't be held responsible for what he's doing on D1, because hey, it's not like he has the same things as his disposal as everyone else. Get a grip, Div.

Sorry guys, had some technical difficulties yesterday. I have been set back by the recent replacing and returning. A couple things I think though:

buldemar's claim that any town player (regarding mollie) would have read previous games strikes me strangely. I still don't think I can get behind a Mollie lynch but I could get behind a numbersguy lynch and I agree that could give us a lot of information about Mollie as well.

As for numbers guy, I don't think the 'scumslip' was incredibly telling (as previously stated) but I do think his reaction has been poor, focusing on the issue and continuing to try to talk around it. I feel like town would have acknowledged that something they said was construed as scummy instead of backing into a wall and taking a me vs. them attitude.

Unvote
Vote: 10506670

And here he finally thinks he's found a wagon which can be lead into a mislynch without him appearing culpable. The part about not believing the scumslip (Note that it's "As previously stated" - Making sure to seem very consistent) is especially brilliant - He can then, after a mislynch, argue that it was totally Numbers' fault for reacting poorly, as well as all the people who started the wagon for using a false tell.

Mollie I agree that we shouldn't lynch over the scumslip itself but I think his defense has been poor. His play has seemed more scummy to me than Thurhame was.

Still making sure to not seem culpable after a mislynch...

I don't like the speed at which Shinori got votes, though I will say his defense was less than convincing. Also, the "die"/didn't know it was hammer seems very suspicious to me.

Also, just to point out, theomoaner arguing with telo seems almost similar to his argument with Mollie (in manner not necessarily in content) on the first day and that didn't turn out well (lynching Mollie the townie).

I think I look at some voting things.

And here we have another wagon which he'd like to have succeed without appearing responsible. He follows his standard procedure of declaring the person somewhat scummy for minor reasons, but still condemning others for their actions, so as to have others to lynch in retribution once it flips town.

He then goes on to sow discord 'round Theomoaner, while defending the person he sees as an easy target. The latter is always popular amongst scum, because hey, there's a good chance they'll die, and that means extra town-cred.

I have never played with masons before either, but clearly they were in contact so the other option is that they are mafia, which could explain the day 2 start. This doesn't seem reasonable because one would suspect that mafia would target a claimed mason with a night kill.

So anyway, it's interesting that Eleison notes Maenara and Hiraki switching votes to his wagon because on the original Mollie wagon they constitute the beginning impetus. Maenara goes as far to point out L-5, implying for the first time a lynch really coming. It is interesting to note that Maenara was not on the final Mollie wagon, though both were on Shinori at its peak.

Also should be pointed out, that aside from Smash and Eleison, the two that were on the final Mollie wagon as well as the Shinori wagon that rapidly gained steam were buldemar and hiraki. Buldemar is on the Mollie wagon despite not really having too much fault with Mollie (correct me if I'm wrong), but he states that he'd rather see a Mollie lynch than no lynch. Then on day 2 proceeds to go right after shinori. I may be grasping at straws but that seems like blaming shinori for an incorrect mollie lynch that he participated on but distanced himself from.

Alright, I need to go to bed, I will puzzle over this a bit more and i'll be on tomorrow.

Also, just to note, this hinges on the fact that the Mollie lynch killed a town and that the Shinori wagon gained steam a little bit too quickly for my suspicion.

Sowing a lot of discord, stoking a lot of fires, but ultimately settling on absolutely nothing.

It's not ideal that we claimed so early, as the original plan was to bread crumb our roles with the whole first letter of every post Day 2 thing, then refer back to Day 2 to confirm the surviving mason if one of us should die. But other circumstances have arisen, which gives me red flags on quite a few players behaviors. More on that once I've had a chance to analyze Mollies Day 1 wagon, Slandaars interactions & Shinori's day 2 wagon.

I feel like I am missing something simple here. Why would that be a better scenario? Wouldn't it be better to have two confirmed town than one after the other dies?
I also missed the reason why you had to claim so early, if not for the one post I remember seeing in which you stated you had good reason to believe eleison was town, but then more conversation went on after that.


I'm not 100% convinced by the argument that it would make no sense for a mafia group of more than 2 to declare 2 of their members to be mason partners. Why would they be leaving their other members in the dust? They would be in the exact same position as before. If two of their mafia could develop town cred, it would be extremely beneficial to them.

Trying to appear suspicious yet reasonable about the masons claim. Damn those Masons, eh, Dividizzle? So pesky with their confirmed town-ness.

Vote: Maenara

I think Maenara is the scummiest player right now. I am also much more comfortable with a Maenara lynch than a Jun lynch. Jun has made some strange comments but not particularly scummy in my eyes. As for the case on maenara, aside from what I was already suspicious of, I think qwints reason #2 in post 814 is telling. Looking at Maenara's ISO and focusing on analysis of mollie, he jumps from all sides of the spectrum. He also shows, in my opinion, way too much pleasure in lynching someone he very well admits could be town.

"Aside from what I was already suspicious of, which I won't mention, of course, I'll totally follow this wall-driven bandwagon, as it seems to have an impenetrable line of reasoning, and also, my past tactics don't seem to have worked, and I want the day to end."

Why did you consider the wagon scum-driven? Who do you think was driving it?

It was more than one post delayed. It could be interpreted as if you were deliberately postponing voting to allow picking a target more likely to get lynched. That is scummy.

I found it perculiar that you would make a case against me in that way without really following up on it. It could be interpreted as if you were testing if others were willingly buying it before placing your vote. Avoidance of placing votes could be scummy because it allows for it not to be too "locked", which would lead to missing out on other lynching opportunities.

I think it's important that we get a clear answer from Hiraki soon regarding Shinori.

It was the fact that town had just driven a mistaken lynch in Pirate Mollie and while I was feeling hesitant, others seemed very willing to quickly load up on another wagon. As I just pointed out, it surprised me to go back and see that both masons (whose claim I am trusting for the moment) were on it.

It was one of MY posts delayed, perhaps you were unclear about that. And it occurred after all that stupid arguing that derailed a lot of things. Then I did look at voting and rather than making a ‘case’ against you, I pointed out something interesting.

Whose claim he's trusting for the moment? Oh, hell no, he's not. This so doesn't fit with what he said only a few posts ago. He can't both be like this, and claim to be suspicious about them earlier on. There's no way that's consistent.

Oh, and he's trying to make excuses for his past fence-sitting. Too little, too late, scumdizzle.

VOTE: Dividizze

Also, Buldermar, are you a serial killer?

[qwints]

Maenara if you're looking at "Jun/Dividizzle/CombinatorialEnigma/Buldermar" as anti-town, why try to start a wagon on dividizzle rather than join the already existing one on Jun?

[Maenara]

Because I think that one has the potential to end the day too early. By all means, I want the pressure to stay on him, too, but he's already been in the spotlight, and there's no way he's gonna succeed in slipping by after this. The same can't be said for Dividizzle.

[NJAC]

Not able to post too much on weekends, be posting asap.

[Telo]

VOTE: Jun

[qwints]

VOTE: Jun

I thought you were replacing out.

[Hiraki]

Alright, seriously. Today I will have something up. I've just been a bit busy with work and shit just keeps popping up. I have started this, it's just that I haven't ended it.

[qwints]

Hiraki, I find the delaying posts worrying given that you're active elsewhere on the sight.

[buldermar]

Also, Buldermar, are you a serial killer?

Yes.

Oh wait, you mean online?

[buldermar]

I am still missing answers to questions posed in post 904 from 10506670, combinatorial Enigma, Hiraki, Jun, Maenara and NJAC. Please answer when you get the chance.

[Maenara]

It was a big wall. I forgot the question by the time I hit bottom.

Q: Will you be willing to lynch Shinori? What do you think about Shinori ignoring me? What in Shinori's defense did you find particularly town-like?

Answer: 1) Ambivalent on that one. Can I say "Yes, but I'd rather lynch someone else"? He's annoying, but I think there's greater chance of hitting scum elsewhere. 2) A weak scum-tell. Also, very consistent with his behaviour, sadly. 3) Uh, not quite sure. Mostly a gut read, really. It felt like he'd previously just been messing around, and now finally decided to actually go and help the rest of town. Given that my main beef with him was him acting like a useless, tunneling, apathetic arse, it didn't take much to persuade me to switch the vote to someone else I found suspicious, once he started looking like he was actually going to do something for a change.

[qwints]

I'm seriously reconsidering my Maenara scum read. I'll re-read later.

[theomoaner]

Because I think that one has the potential to end the day too early. By all means, I want the pressure to stay on him, too, but he's already been in the spotlight, and there's no way he's gonna succeed in slipping by after this. The same can't be said for Dividizzle.

Why are you so concerned about the day ending early?

[Maenara]

Because I think that one has the potential to end the day too early. By all means, I want the pressure to stay on him, too, but he's already been in the spotlight, and there's no way he's gonna succeed in slipping by after this. The same can't be said for Dividizzle.

Why are you so concerned about the day ending early?

Because short day = bad for town.

[buldermar]

It was a big wall. I forgot the question by the time I hit bottom.

Q: Will you be willing to lynch Shinori? What do you think about Shinori ignoring me? What in Shinori's defense did you find particularly town-like?

Answer: 1) Ambivalent on that one. Can I say "Yes, but I'd rather lynch someone else"? He's annoying, but I think there's greater chance of hitting scum elsewhere. 2) A weak scum-tell. Also, very consistent with his behaviour, sadly. 3) Uh, not quite sure. Mostly a gut read, really. It felt like he'd previously just been messing around, and now finally decided to actually go and help the rest of town. Given that my main beef with him was him acting like a useless, tunneling, apathetic arse, it didn't take much to persuade me to switch the vote to someone else I found suspicious, once he started looking like he was actually going to do something for a change.

Would you agree that he is not doing anything actively to progress the game at the moment and has not been doing so since the majority of the votes placed on him were removed?

If no, what has he been doing? (quote posts please)

If yes, why are you ambivalent on lynching him now when you were not before?

What do you think he has been doing that helped the rest of town specifically? (quote posts please)

Thanks you for answering my questions.

[Maenara]

He's not doing it anymore, and I wouldn't mind seeing him vigged or something, but I'm ambivalent on lynching him at current time when I have people who are scumreads rather than badtownreads.

[qwints]

UNVOTE: Shinori
VOTE: Maenara
I am now firmly back on the Maenara=scum wagon. I see no way of reconciling the "motivations" behind these posts.

The problem, in this game, with automatically declaring all lurkers scum is that, no matter how you put it, we have a lot of bad players. Yes, I'm amongst them, big surprise. Doesn't change that fact. And we've got people doing things they really shouldn't have. The only real activity is the Combi/Telo shouting match, Smash venting at everyone for doing nothing, and Theo bitching at everyone for doing nothing.

Yeah, we need to do something, but if this game is to get anywhere, lynching the worst offenders (I'm looking at Shinori here), would make it more readable

and

give us some info do actually analyze.

to these posts

Because short day = bad for town.

He's not doing it anymore, and I wouldn't mind seeing him vigged or something, but I'm ambivalent on lynching him at current time when I have people who are scumreads rather than badtownreads.

[Maenara]

I didn't have any proper reads back there. It was all a huge freaking mess of everyone doing nothing, and everything grinding to a halt. This day, we're getting something useful done, which is why I think we should keep doing that. Granted, half of it is a wagon on me, which isn't exactly as useful as I'd like, but it still promotes useful scumhunting and such.

[Jun]

@buldermar

Q: I need to know if you are or are not okay with lynching Shinori (no middle ground).

After the mason reveal, I am ok with lynching Shinori.

[Telo]

[]

VOTE: Jun

I thought you were replacing out.

So did I since last week. I asked the mod why he replaced the other guy even though I asked first. He said it was so he didn't have to change his sig. I have gotten crap over replacing out of this game and I haven't even been replaced so.
VOTE: maenara

[Hiraki]

Buldermars at the bottom because I originally had this guy pegged as town. But his recent drop in activity since the decline of the Shinori wagon is particularly disheartening.

Refresh me. Without an vote analysis, what are your reads?

I'm starting to see, especially with NJAC now, that people I start to lead on are wagoned on quickly, excluding theo, and it seems like an odd coincidence.

Why did you join the shinori wagon and why did you get off?

To get him/her to talk. I'm seeing that it really failed. Next time, which is dawning near, I'm going all the way.

Yeah NJAC is actually doing shit in 877 and 878 so my read is off on him to a null.

I don't think I want Maenara but if the deadline gets closer, I'll hammer.

Unvote, Vote: Shinori