Greater Idea Mafia (Endgame)
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
In post 1809, Luna Fox wrote:With those cards from G1 and G3 tho, do you think it was Sala or Frogger calling the shots there.
I already said I called the shots."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Joined: April 2, 2015
Alright I'm here.
First
In post 1793, Kthxbye wrote:I do not buy that Mafia Compulsive Hider was an option for them in G2 AND G3 with myself also having the option of Mafia Compulsive Hider on G3 as well. I don't know what the odds of this happening randomly, but looking at the list of options that could have been rolled, it's fucking super low....low enough to warrant today's lynch.
This is the stupidest fucking argument.
hi
The probability of rolling three (or more) mafia hiders in 123 rolls (instead of 126, because I'm assuming if you roll mafia compulsive hider in one game, the moderator won't let you roll the same role twice in the same game...otherwise if this is allowable it's 126, but I'm using the lowest probability odds for kthxbye's sake) with 146 different possible choices is given by the binomial distribution.
I could write out the formula, but instead I'll just say go here to calculate it for yourself:
http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html
I've done that, and here are the results...
(note: n = number of rolls, k = 3 rolls or more being Maf Comp Hid, p = 1/146)
This says there is a 5.3% chance of there being at least 3 Mafia Compulsive Hiders in 126 rolls.
If we want to limit it to only half the rolls (so 3 in 63 rolls = 3*21 players), then the probability is 0.9%. Hardly impossible. And that's for one individual role. If we consider there are 117 roles where this could happen, then the odds of seeing at least ONE of these pop up three times is given again by the binomial probability where n = 117, k = 1, p = 0.009. Calculate that and you get 65%.
So yes, there is a 65% chance of seeing one of the unique roles rolled 3 times or more in 63 rolls.
Also - I am a statistician for a living."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
In post 2055, Kthxbye wrote:Assuming there are two, three person anti town factions
Why are you assuming this?"I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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In post 2080, Fro99er wrote:If we want to limit it to only half the rolls (so 3 in 63 rolls = 3*21 players), then the probability is 0.9%. Hardly impossible. And that's for one individual role. If we consider there are 117 roles where this could happen, then the odds of seeing at least ONE of these pop up three times is given again by the binomial probability where n = 117, k = 1, p = 0.009. Calculate that and you get 65%.
So yes, there is a 65% chance of seeing one of the unique roles rolled 3 times or more in 63 rolls.
Whoops...I want to use exactly one, not 1 or more, because to have more than 1 means then the probability is less than 0.9% for the rest because you'll need it to appear 3 in 60 rolls, etc.
But yeah, for exactly one...it's still 36.9%...still, it's hardly improbable that we see at least one of the unique roles rolled three times."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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In post 1834, hiplop wrote:Anti you really think rabble is most likely scum over fro9 and luna?
What changed your mind in those 40 posts?"I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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In post 2029, hiplop wrote:5 deaths?!?!? LOL
Not a town reaction."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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In post 2065, hiplop wrote:like give me some time holy shit its not like ive been lurking this game like you
How much time should we give you? Your iso is complete crap. No analysis in there whatsoever. Just "this guy is scum" or "that guys is scum".
And a whole bunch of other fluff."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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In post 2090, T S O wrote:I don't want hiplop on the table today - it won't happen, and that's the end of it. Frogger, you can camp your vote there if you want, my opinion of your slot couldn't be any worse in terms of alignment.
What, as third party?"I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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I assure you it's the latter. And as mentioned, I was essentially site V/LA last weekend and then when I came in to play I found out my hydra partner was kicked out of the game."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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Hiplop, if you'll notice, I already mentioned I was V/LA last weekend then the lynch happened Monday. I've provided far more content than you today.
@TSO - you'll see I'm town in due time. I'll get to Shiro/Rabble soon"I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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In post 2106, Shiro wrote:Froggy do you retract sala's 3p claim ?
Yes.
His claim was purely to avoid being NK'd whil I was supposed to town up the slot just enough to avoid being lynched. So that I we could prove our towniness in due time with our power."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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In post 2108, T S O wrote:Shiro - your Saulus comments are rather damning. Unless you address them, you will either be lynched today or tomorrow.
You should do that.
Today.
Now."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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I think if he's not a lone wolf then it's L 1-1.
I pushed ank D1 when I was here. Obviously I could have bussed if I was his buddy (I'm not) but just go read for yourself and form your own opinion on my ank push."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Survivor
- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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Fro99er Survivor
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The reason my post count has been low is I have the most apathy inducing role there is. I should have taken the scum role instead, but I told Sala I prefer town. I had never played as an unlynchable before and it just makes me not want to try. That and Sala's whole early ordeal while I was V/LA just put me off from even caring about this game all that much.
Go ahead and lynch me. It won't go through because I'm 1-shot unlynchable."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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Whatever.
I'm Saulus. W9 is likely my mafia buddy because I do not have a NK (I only get a NK if I'm last remaining scum). Hiplop's stance on me all game leads me to believe he is another scum faction but not mafia. Also, his claim is super safe.
VOTE: frogger
That is a hammer. I am now conftown."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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And yes, Sala actually believed Titus was scum. We have no clue who is mafia as Saulus, so we had no idea Titus was also Saulus."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Survivor
- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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Then who's the other scum beside W9?
Kthx Vedith or Shiro?"I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Joined: April 2, 2015
Also, kthx wasn't really suspected D1. According to his sig that means probscum...especially for getting me to out/self. Can't believe I fell for that."I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend-
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Fro99er Survivor
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- Posts: 16952
- Joined: April 2, 2015
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Fro99er Survivor
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Sorry I lost that game for either team I cold have been (mafia/town)
Didn't really have fun this game. Mainly because of my hydra partner's shenanigans and dominating the way we would play our role without really consulting with me in hydra PT.
Didn't really notice the modding, which I guess means it was was fine for me. Probably because I didn't give two shits about the game so I didn't care one way or the other how the modding worked (not a slam on ika at all. A slam on my own personal enjoyment of the game)"I officially announce Fro99er the king of guilties because this is the second time he has guiltied a slot I was really unsure about.
Heil King Froggo.
Ribbit ribbit." -Transcend
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