Micro 11: Mostly Normal Micro (Day 4)

[ProsecutorGodot]

VOTE: Zabriel

For voting the last to confirm

[ProsecutorGodot]

As of this stage, I'm not exactly sure what to think of lucky. I'm putting him down as null-but-keeping-my-eyes-on-him-because-he-looked-kinda-scummy-there-for-a-minute. Since there's no need for this random vote,

UNVOTE: Zabriel

I think #15 is an appropriately dismissive response to a weak/RVS vote. Weak-town read on Lucky.

UNVOTE: Mehdi
VOTE: Salamence

Let's see where this goes.

Yes, let's.

VOTE: borkjerkfin

[ProsecutorGodot]

The thing about it is that bork called lucky's Post 15 a weak town tell, then goes ahead and votes with him. I'd file lucky as leaning scum for now, but only ever so slightly since what I can pull from what he wants to see about Sala could lead us to believe either way. I'll see how Sala goes with his response before I make any judgments there, but I think bork's statement in that post "Let's see where this goes" comes off as eager to start a wagon. He looks ready to push someone, and I'm not sure it's safe thinking to get bloodthirsty so soon.

[ProsecutorGodot]

I'd file lucky as leaning scum for now, but only ever so slightly since what I can pull from what

he wants to see about Sala

could lead us to believe either way.

You need to elaborate on this sentence - specifically, the bolded, before I make any further judgment on you.

Well yeah so i can look at any reaction he does with my vote if any.

Basically, I want lucky to make good on this before I can start forming a deeper opinion of him. One that uses a read outside of RVS.

Godot I can see what you mean, but at the same time where should he vote if he's town? Divide the votes further or vote with someone else?

I agree that we need a unified effort for pressure, but what I pointed out was the reason he gave us for getting on the Sala wagon.

I think #15 is an appropriately dismissive response to a weak/RVS vote. Weak-town read on Lucky.

UNVOTE: Mehdi
VOTE: Salamence

Let's see where this goes.

The last bit in particular disturbed me. He got on board because he wanted to see where the wagon would go. And yet, since that vote, he has not mentioned any further reason to believe Sala is scum despite the fact that his vote placed him at L-2. His quote at the start of this post furthers my thought that he's ready and willing to jump on another wagon. If he placed his non-RVS vote down for Sala, shouldn't he have given at least one reason other than what seems to be sheeping in the guise of pressure?

@Sala: Yeah, Mehdi's right. The chainsaw defense is attacking someone else's attacker. And since he voted for Ben, there hasn't been a chainsaw in this game.

UNTIL NOW

[ProsecutorGodot]

1. What timezone do you live in? Central Time
2. Do you consider yourself an investigator or an analyzer? Ie. Do you actively ask questions in order to draw out scum or do you sit back and analyse everything that is said? I'm more of an analyzer, but if needed, I will investigate and start asking questions.
3. What was your first impression of Sal's first post and Djd's eventual proclamation that Sal is town? I was in the last game they played together (Open 438) and understand there is a rivalry between the two of them. I don't think Sala's first post sets off any tells either way. DJD's eventual proclamation that Sala is town, however, does come as strange to me since Mehdi first gave the reason that Sala's reaction to L-2 was town. That and in 438, Sala was scum and said one of my better analyses made me town, only to flip scum and trigger a speedlynch on me. That just kinda puts me on alert.

I don't mind if we wagon someone quickly. I'd just prefer that we not set ourselves up for scum to hammer. The sooner they can get mislynches and move out of our two NK-free days, the better for them. As such, I'm becoming wary of the Bub wagon, too. He's now at L-1, and we're almost 24 hours into this game. We really should slow down. I know it's a micro game, but that shouldn't affect how we use our time (or if we use our time). Speedwagons don't allow us to exchange information in a calmer, less delicate situation.

Here, it's at the point where anyone who wants to be an idiot and sprint in for the kill can. If someone does hammer soon, then we'll have to take a good, LONG look at Bub's flip D2 and see what we can put together. This is definitely not a point in the game to rush someone to the gallows. We have this gift of two lynches without fear of the scum returning fire. Let's use it and not speedwagon anyone.

[ProsecutorGodot]

@Mod: Mr_Ree's vote was simply removed, not placed on Mehdi.

Bork, now that you have more information, what is your judgment?

Fixed, thanks for pointing that out.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Clarification: Has it changed any since your vote on Mehdi?

[ProsecutorGodot]

Actually, you're right. I'm confusing this with an Open game that just started, and it's Semi-Nightless. Maybe after these games end, I won't take on this many games. Or at least not let them blur together.

I said I don't mind wagoning quickly. I would hate it if we lynched quickly. The difference is that wagons don't always lead to lynches. If we have to put someone on the spot, we can wagon them in a heartbeat, but we should only lynch once we're sure enough. Since it's day 1, yes, we likely could lynch town. Yes, we'll get reads from those on the wagon and those who offered their thoughts about the lynched. That doesn't mean we lynch someone right here, right now. I'll clarify that statement and say I don't think we should speedlynch or set ourselves up so that a careless/scum player can hammer on the slightest provocation.

I'm leaning town on bork now. His questioning of me as he did is a valid towntell and his vote on Sala right now seems to wants answers, not lynches.

UNVOTE: borkjerfkin

[ProsecutorGodot]

Godot -- I'm having a lot of trouble reading him. He never actually answered my question about why his vote was on me earlier, and his most recent response to me (just taking it off) smells of backing down under scrutiny.

I'll clarify, then. I voted you earlier because your comment "Let's see where this [Sala's wagon] goes" seemed fishy. I didn't know whether it meant you wanted a wagon on someone fast to get answers or if you wanted a lynch in a hurry so you could carry out your agenda N1. When we talked some more, it became apparent that it was more likely you wanted the wagon than the lynch. Hence why I unvoted you because a speedwagon isn't bad until it becomes a speedlynch and you seemed to want Sala to talk more and not rally the town on-the-spot to run for the gallows.

I'll be back later today with more reads.

[ProsecutorGodot]

I promised reads and here they are:

DJD: Leans town. Questioning of Mr_Ree's RQS looks to have a healthy dose of suspicion. I don't see much harm in asking when we're on (as I've collected a wagon in my sleep once) but DJD could be on to something with the other two. I see how Mr_Ree could use his second question to drum up a wagon by saying "This isn't how (s)he said (s)he played when I asked 'analyst or investigator!' LYNCH WAGON, GOGOGO!"

Bub: Leans town. Also takes Mr_Ree's RQS and vote on him with a little skepticism. I'm curious about how Ree jumped off the Bub wagon as soon as he was on it. I think it was scum-careful play and, at this point, clears Bub for the most part.

Bork: Leans town. At first, I thought him eager to start a wagon and run it through to end the day. However, upon further exchange with him, he seems to be playing the town way in wagoning for answers first rather than speedlynches. Also shares healthy questioning of Ree's "RQS" with the above town reads.

Lucky: Null. Acted scummy at first with explaining more on his random vote, but in his last post, brought up a valid point that zabriel's put up a bit of filler. I don't necessarily think it's too much filler to be town, but that is something we should note that we don't get much in the way of reasoning until zabriel's latest post. Null since he puts zabriel's filler ahead of Ree's stronger tells, but there is always the possibility someone is hitting scum that we're not.

Mr_Ree: Leans scum, top priority. As I explained in DJD's read, the second question in his "RQS" looks to fish for an answer that he can later use to say "This guy's playstyle is off from what he answered earlier, let's lynch him!" when it would be misguided to go off of self-meta. At best, he looks to get an idea of weaknesses in this false dichotomy as there is a sliding scale in between and possibly other playstyles to consider. Also points out that there are lurkers about, a favorite mislynch target for scum.

zabriel: Null. The amount of fluff itself isn't scummy, but fluff exists. His reads in Post 88 do make sense, but his bit saying "I'll throw a vote on when I decide who I like less" makes me raise an eyebrow at it. He could just mean who he likes least as a townie, but mafia's not a game about who you like the least (though no one will blame you for hopping on someone's wagon when they piss off town and scum alike).

Sala: Leans town. Seems to give honest reactions about people questioning his deal with DJD, though I'm not sure about him asking me what the deal was with Mehdi. My tell on Mehdi keeps him out of the null category.

Mehdi: Null-leaning-kinda-scum. His play is active, no doubt, but I have no idea why he called Bub's L-1 quickwagon a town tell. This sounds like it can carry a darker agenda should Mehdi flip scum and Bub live to the following day. Is only kinda scummy because I'm only seeing a few situations where scum would be on another scum's wagon at this stage.

Since he is my scummiest read at the moment, I want to help put pressure on Ree so we have the upper hand in questioning. Until he gives us something else, I don't want this to form into a rallying cry to lynch him. We've already wagoned two players to L-2 or L-1 so far. The third time might be the charm, but let's approach this with intent to get answers.

VOTE: Mr_Ree

[ProsecutorGodot]

There is the slight issue of mixing up games.

If there is in fact no night kill for the first two nights

, we should seriously think about getting rid of Godot.

My vote stays for this. This statement looks like he could be coaching his scumbuddy. If not today, then I think Ree would be even more so a valid lynch candidate D2 should scum refuse their NK N1. I'm in another game that's semi-nightless. That's all there is to it. This looks to set up a future mislynch. Though I like how you seem to be thinking long-term, this looks more like a signal to a scumbuddy than a read.

[ProsecutorGodot]

LOL. I like your train of though but

would it really make sense for scum to skip 2 night kills just to get you? How does that help them?

Not that I would really mind too much if they did try that. Two free days without a nk would be freaking awesome. What you did just there creates a wifom situation which results in my death tomorrow if the nightkill gets roleblocked or refused.

It was far less likely that there would be no kills for 2 days.

Then why bring it up at all if it's not likely or sensible?

[ProsecutorGodot]

I called DJD's post scummy, not because of the town read, because of the conviction to it.

He didn't say he had a town read, he said that he

IS

town

. Big difference, especially at this point in the game.

Salamence

is

town because I have DJD as scum.

The only reason I can see for DJD to give Sal a golden ticket was to keep him off his back. Right now that's my main focal point to this game. WHY WAS HE SO SURE??? Even with the answer about the 2 game Meta, it still bugs the crap out of me. Like I said, there are only three people playing that know each townies alignment for sure, the player themselves, and the two mafia.

While I'm looking at this ISO, I would like to know what changed your opinion on calling someone else town with the word "is" and not anything along the lines of "probably."

[ProsecutorGodot]

Ree why is salamence town?

Your paragraph on him makes him sound more scum then town (I still think he's town and he didn't seem to over react to the votes, but focused more on the discussion).

UNVOTE: Mr_Ree
VOTE: Mehdi2277

I poked at Mr_Ree's case just that little bit more, and look what's finally come of it. Ree's right. You are reaching a bit far considering the form of your own question.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Ree why is salamence town? Your paragraph on him makes him sound more scum then town (I still think he's town and he didn't seem to over react to the votes, but focused more on the discussion).

Beyond that the read post definitely sounds genuine (and the only scum read I disagree with is bub). Still wary of him, but less so now.

And yet, with more information now than then, you said yourself,

I don't think it's a major reason to suspect you, but multiple minor things together make you the most suspicious to me and it's one of the minor things.

I think giving someone a "golden ticket" is a pretty major point to put up in calling someone scum. Especially referring back to this same exchange, where you say his read sounds genuine. And apparently, you still see it that way bringing up the bit about the rest of that quote. But how can that be if he's scum as you and your vote say he is? How can that be when you will slug out this minor thing in proving Ree's likelihood of being scum?

[ProsecutorGodot]

No, they don't act scummy in every post. But scum have a natural tendency to lie. So what you're telling me is that you think Ree is scum. That, by default, means he should be lying about his reads for one reason or another.

And yet, from what you said, I'm getting that you would rather not pursue that line of questioning. Most of his reads sound genuine enough. Multiple things point to him being scum, but his reads are okay? I don't buy it.

If this isn't you trying to cover your scum hide, it's certainly not helping us get any closer to lynching Ree. We've pointed out things from a lot of his posts that sound scummy, but according to your statement that scum don't act scummy all the time, we've got it all wrong. We're wasting our time nitpicking someone we shouldn't be after.

And I'm really not liking this defensive reaction. Especially not in combination with recent passive plays. You say you'll wait for reads rather than put the pressure on Mr_Ree and give us better reasons to believe we should lynch him. You've even said he's starting to look null. Who else is there if not him? You look like you're starting to play carefully. I don't mind refuting reasons for other wagons, but it looks like the Ree lynch has left your scope. Yet you remain on him and still want us to believe he's scum. This is no time to keep defending supposed townies. What we need is scumhunting. Highest post count out of all of us and you don't appear to have anyone you REALLY want to lynch.

And as such, this, for now, is why I vote Mehdi.

[ProsecutorGodot]

If you think he's scum you should be fine getting him lynched (and it helps plenty if he flips scum which at the time you suspected him). Not all quick lynches are wrong.

But a good majority of them are in the inherent fact that D1 is a very important informational phase. This lets us give reads and look at connections when most of us don't know who is town or not. If we just kill someone D1, then the scum can just kill someone N1 and then play around that when we don't have very many impressions. If we talk it out, then it's surprising what scum can let slip D1 that we pull back up later in the game. If we think someone is scum, it's fine that we lynch them, but we should talk about it to make sure everyone's getting their input and that we have everyone's input to read after the lynch. You even said yourself that Bub's fast L-1 was a towntell, and now you're here saying Ree should've stayed on so any reckless fool could hammer a player you later said was town because the lynch fell through?

I think this point about Ree hopping off as soon as he hopped on could be considered WIFOM, but I also think at this point, getting off Bub's wagon when he did is more of a towntell. Now that I think his RQS points have become moot, there are more town motivations to retract that kind of vote. A lynch that fast with so few impressions could have set a dangerously fast pace of lynches that only benefit scum since lack of information flow is good for them. The faster we lynch, the faster they can NK. A lynch like that would have also allowed the scum to build their arguments to lynch those on the wagon and try to set themselves up as those against a townie's lynch. Scum aren't stupid enough to hammer that fast, but had Ree stayed on, they wouldn't have to risk being the idiot who rushed in for the hammer.

Not all quicklynches are wrong, but I don't think there was a substantial-enough case on Bub to off him right then and there without running several risks later on in the game. We would have needed a HUGE slip or case to get him so quickly. If we have time, we need to use it. We don't have that kind of room for mistakes. If we are going to mislynch, we still need as much information as we can get in order to get a better idea of what that mislynch means. Our chances are slimmer that we hit scum with a quicklynch. Yes, Ree would have stood to gain a great deal of towncred if the wagon hit scum, but the dangers outweigh the benefits. His unvote looked less like playing carefully and more like playing smart.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Godot/ree what's your overall opinion on lucky right now?

I don't like that Lucky was so quick to agree with me at the time I was onto Ree with the conversation about whether or not scum would NK the first two nights and whether or not it was a viable tell. He even asked where the idea of no NKs for 2 nights came from when it was already mentioned and discussed. That gives me an uneasy feeling of not reading carefully. Honestly, I don't see any level of scum passing up their chance for 2 free kills just to get 1 lynch they have to contest the rest of the town for. I also don't see how Lucky could so quickly agree that the scum would do that just to have it out for any one townie. Not as town, at least. I'm starting to lean scum on him. He said he's reading, so I would like to see what he wants to tell us.

[ProsecutorGodot]

If it was between the two of them, I'd take sparing Zab over Lucky. His clarification of the point I mentioned about him really doesn't satisfy since we discussed the point that it was unlikely that Ree would intentionally miss out on two NKs just to have it out for someone, especially now that we brought it up. He would just be setting up for his own lynch if that happened rather than mine. Zab is more likely town since he seems to be taking what I'm saying with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Godot's last post actually shifted him back in my mind since the only reason a night kill would be skipped at this point (at least as far as I can see) is to cast suspicion on Ree. Lucky being a fan of it is a little sketchy too. Not a fan.

I agree on the point that Lucky's agreement with me is slightly disturbing. I did make a bit of a jump at that, so I'm wondering why Lucky was not among those questioning me.

FoS: Lucky

[ProsecutorGodot]

Hmm...strongest town reads right now, in order, are bork, Bub and Ree. All three have responded well to wagons and/or questioning. Null reads right now are Joh, Zab and Sala. Joh's leaning town the most in this category due to the fact that Sala insists on perpetually attacking the slot until he dies, but both of them carry on this conversation to say the other is scummy. Might be distancing, but I've played with Sala before. He is that determined to get his lynch scum or not. That leaves Lucky and Mehdi as the two I'm thinking is the scum team. Lucky has started to seem a bit jittery in his responses to our questions and Mehdi seemed to back off the attack when I pushed the town reasons Ree likely had to step off of Bub's wagon. What happened to all those other reasons? Ree's jump on and off of Bub was just one of the ones he gave. Even if it was a big reason, he said he had several minor reasons to believe Ree was scum and stepping off of Ree's wagon seems like he's appeasing to me. How does he suddenly go from "lynch this scumbag" to "null-leaning-town?"

Tl;dr version: Here's this scale:

Town

>>>Null>>>

Scum

Bork

>

Bub

>

Ree

>Joh>Zab>Sala>

Lucky

>

Mehdi

[ProsecutorGodot]

From what I'm reading as of right now, there were 3 town and 1 scum on Bub's wagon when he hit L-1.

Right now, we really don't have much of a major wagon. We have 4 wagons with 2 votes each and a 5th with only 1. We are less than 5 days away from the deadline. I suggest at this stage, we narrow down our choices and start voting accordingly. We need to start coming to a consensus soon if we're going to lynch someone today.

My top 3 lynch candidates are Mehdi, Lucky and Sala. Out of them, right now, I have my vote on Mehdi, but that read has started giving way to favoring a Lucky lynch. As for Sala, maybe later.

[ProsecutorGodot]

EBWDP: Let's start winding this down now.

UNVOTE: Mehdi2277
VOTE: luckyjt

[ProsecutorGodot]

I'm declaring intent to hammer. Claim time is now.

P-edit @Sala: Then go read again.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Well, so much for that wagon.

Now, then, looking at that wagon with the claim. Unless we turn around and lynch Mehdi, the good news is that if the claim is true, we have time to piece scum together for him to try to roleblock N3.

I've noted that Ree once again was on to make it L-1 and off to negate my intent to hammer. Just a slight bit odd that he would do that a second time, but the weirder part about that is before he voted, he declared intent to hammer with 3 votes on Mehdi and 5 needed for majority. If there was time to look and check the vote count before you said that, why didn't you do it then? Finding it weird, but not really scummy.

Bork started the wagon, which I don't see him leaning scum. It's a null-tell at worst since we get into WIFOM if we start debating town vs scum motivations for starting up a wagon.

Joh looks like he's settling for Mehdi's lynch instead of keeping on Sala. This looks kinda scummy, but not enough to pull him out of null for my reads.

Zab joined in on the wagon 3rd in line, which increased the wagon's momentum and, for whatever reason at the time, gave Ree the belief that he was about to hammer. His wishy-washy comment about saying

It's a possibility, and it's actually looking like a viable lynch. I don't feel as good about Lucky as I used to, I don't have enough information to decide on Johhog/Salamance for sure. Some of the others are feeling good about it, and I wouldn't mind seeing you go, so I'm willing to see what happens here.

looks like an even bigger "I'll settle for this lynch" slip than Joh's.

UNVOTE: luckyjt
VOTE: Zabriel

[ProsecutorGodot]

@Ree: Fair enough as I just now looked back to realize Zab is at L-1 with my vote.

[ProsecutorGodot]

I thought Mehdi had voted me before since Mehdi had me as his top scum read. I wasnt sure if anyone else had voted, I was just trying to post in case I had been lynched to post before the mod ended the day or if I was at l-1 before someone hammered.

Anyways I am VT

which is why Im not too worried about being lynched. With my flip it will allow you guys to get some reads based on voting patterns. So Mehdi you can go ahead and hammer me if you want or you guys can use the rest of the day phase. i will not be hammering myself since I have done that in the past as town and the town where mad at me for doing so and ending the day quickly. SO its up to you guys now. Anyways I will most likely not be around until tomorrow and dont have a lot of time today which is why i have been on and off, so if you guys want to hold off for a little so I can give my final thoughts on everyone in order to make sure i have everything down I want to say.

There's his claim.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Sum of reads on Sala:

Ticked that he's been on the DJD/Johhog slot the entire game and hasn't really helped us sort out our main wagons. Looks scummy as this seems like he wants to distract us from our main wagons. In response, at this stage of the game, I prefer to look into Zab as he is within the hammer's reach.

[ProsecutorGodot]

I'll trust you on this one, though I still have my doubts about Zab. Looking back again to make sure, he checks out as null-leaning-town. Didn't like how he reacted to the speedwagon on Mehdi, but we'll save him for another day.

UNVOTE: Zabriel

But we really need to decide on someone if we're going to lynch. We have about 66 hours from the time of this post to reach a concurrence or the scum get to draw first blood. We've burned through Lucky (VT, null on claim but checks out alright) and Mehdi (Jailkeeper, no CCs) by claims. I'm thinking we should put Zab in our back pocket as a lynch candidate for now. I think I've already stated my case for Sala as scum as one focused on one slot's death at the expense of our main line of questioning and distraction from the main wagon. He's been reactionary to Joh's moves most of the day, which is not helpful to us at all. Especially not this comment that came with his vote for Zab:

mainly this has been (JOH vs Sala) and (Lucky vs Zabriel) and everybody else.

Again, believing lucky because he is in the same hole I am, town players getting outsmarted by smarter players.

UNVOTE: JOHHOG
VOTE: Zabriel

Not buying it. As much as I wanted to believe you are town, I'm just not convinced anymore. I dislike when someone plays the "Oh, woe is me" card (like you did in Open 438) and that doesn't draw any sympathy from me. Only this:

VOTE: Salamence20

L-1. Declare intent, claim your role, you know the drill.

[Ongoing game content deleted-DCL]

[ProsecutorGodot]

I expected such a reaction because you self-voted in both of those games as a way to make yourself look like a surrendering townie. I just wanted to be sure we wouldn't get that here and you wouldn't cut off our chance to get final thoughts before you left. I wanted to be sure we would get every last read we could out of you.

Additional note: You called me outright town in 438 as scum. You call me outright town now while Bork has the hammer at the ready. I'm staying right where I am because I'm not falling for getting comfortable with your town call on me again.

Bork, if you want to hammer now, step right up. Wait if you must, but I don't suggest you wait too long.

[ProsecutorGodot]

I'm definitely suspecting scum on the Sala wagon. From completed games I've read from him (and the one I played with him) he's an easy lynch target D1. I wouldn't doubt opportunistic scum taking the easy way out of D1.

I'm more embarrassed that I made the move to declare intent and force our jailer to claim. But now, we make up for it by continuing the hunt. I'm looking at both the wagon that led to Mehdi's claim and Sala's wagon for links between the two. Both of them happened pretty quickly in succession, so I wouldn't be surprised to find opportunistic scum to run for either mislynch.

Mehdi's near-lynch and Sala's mislynch have a couple of common denominators: Zabriel and Johhog. Zab was 3rd on Mehdi's wagon and 2nd on Sala's lynch. Joh was 2nd on Mehdi's wagon, which happened after Mehdi said "Why wait for a wagon to appear before you vote on it?" and Bork opened that door by placing the 1st vote, and was also 3rd on Sala's lynch (which is no surprise considering the battle between Sala and that slot) I'd say those two are my top suspects, but this could take a bit of ISOing in addition to hearing their responses to the flips before probing further into one of them.

[ProsecutorGodot]

This was basically Sala's reasoning behind what separated Lucky and Zab:

Because this game is unbelievably slow....

mainly this has been (JOH vs Sala) and (Lucky vs Zabriel) and everybody else.

Again, believing lucky because he is in the same hole I am, town players getting outsmarted by smarter players.

UNVOTE: JOHHOG
VOTE: Zabriel

A bit misguided that it was just these two bouts, but in this, Sala said himself he was "a sucker for the AtE." He saw Zab's wagon as town-guided and for that reason, he cast down his vote on Zab. I honestly think that assumed too much at the time, especially considering he was trying to shed a vote or two from his wagon to redirect the main lynch, and seemed like a move to line up a lynch. Yes, he flipped town, but we actually venture into WIFOM territory going down that path since that tells us he was doing thoughtful guesswork.

That and he isn't alive to use this nugget of insight courtesy of Bork. Lucky chose now to pull a 180 and start clarifying things. It seems artificial. Up until his wagon died, he was all but resigned to the lynch. Combine this with what he did yesterday (agreement with my reaching during the NK debate, AtE for us to pity the unskilled newb) and I'm getting the idea that Lucky's turnaround was the product of a N1 pep talk.

Lucky, I would like to know what changed your play.

[ProsecutorGodot]

@Godot: what are you trying to say here:

That and he isn't alive to use this nugget of insight courtesy of Bork.

What I'm saying is that I think he would reconsider his stance on Lucky if he was still in and that I'm not taking his townLucky read as entirely accurate just because he flipped town. Just a reminder to not take his town reads as Word of Mod.

@Lucky: I think if you're about to be lynched, you spill about everyone ASAP in a more particular order than alphabetically and before you submit yourself to a lynch. That discussion about Zabriel looks very important to your case considering you voted for him at the end of Day 1 and still believe he is scum. I think he should have been the very first person you talked about and you should have talked about him right after you realized you were at L-1.

Speaking of which, your "just lynch me" speech looked to passively self-hammer. It doesn't make sense for you to do it as town, but it makes a lot of sense for you to do it as scum because it would have denied us the information we put out there after. Compared to what you told us about Zab, yesterday's discussion of reads seemed reluctant considering the list was in pieces the way it was. It just seems all too convenient that you would miss talking about Zab, your number one scum read, until today after he was already on a mislynch. If you were bogged down with 4 or 5 games at a time, then Zab should have been one of the first reads you put out there so it was there as soon as possible. Again, this seems artificial and timed for the situation.

VOTE: Luckyjt

Just out of curiosity, if you were going in alphabetical order, why'd you not mention me?

[ProsecutorGodot]

On that list now that I'm here.

From strongest town to "lynch this sucker":

Bork>Bub>Ree>Joh/Zab(will look further into stronger read)>Lucky

[ProsecutorGodot]

I don't think Joh's case is looking all too well right now as we sit and wait and do nothing while he waits on his mystery read to show up.

[ProsecutorGodot]

If it'll motivate you any to do something about presenting your case, Joh, I do find a couple of things you put out in your first wall to still hold some truth. Ree's slip of saying "Sala is town because DJD is scum" was one thing that bothered me, but the other that I think was bigger was when he tried making the NK deal into a scumtell straight off even after he said there was probably no way scum would skip out on two NKs.

If you would care to continue your case, we're all anticipating it. But I do have a stronger suspicion about you. If you wanted Ree lynched by now, then "when I feel like it" should have been the next opportunity you got. I don't like how you wasted that chance laying out a precursor to a grudge match.

I think there's scum between Joh and Ree, but that's not to say we should lynch them both one after another. If we're wrong today, tomorrow's LyLo assuming the scum kill is successful. Not the ideal situation to line up lynches. As of this stage, my stronger suspicion is Joh since he continued the fight with Sala where DJD left off and here he is now going for whoever has the most votes. Picking fights with the target of the main wagon doesn't reflect well. It looks like he's taking the easy way out. Considering he was 3rd then and is 3rd now REALLY disturbs me. That he begins his case on Ree and stops halfway through to not even finish it gives me the suspicion that whoever brings down the hammer on Ree will fall into a trap. One that will bring about the losing mislynch tomorrow if we get it wrong today.

Since we honestly should get this game back into a discussion rather than wait on whoever Joh is waiting on:

To everyone else: What are your thoughts on the Joh/Ree dispute?

[ProsecutorGodot]

While we wait, does anyone want to point out anything unrelated to the Joh/ree votes?

@Godot: what makes Lucky a better Lynch target than anyone else? His play today is much stronger and more involved. While I agree that there are some points we have both made that support the scum theory, he has completely dropped off my radar for the time being. The post you made outlining the major players in yesterday's fiasco was, to me, far more telling. The fact that all 3 of them are currently on the same wagon again today should be an eye opener to everyone.

I wouldn't doubt that there's scum among them assuming you are town. Lucky has picked up his play on a more consistent basis at this stage. Plus, his self-restraint from declaring intent shows enough honest concern without seeming careful.

UNVOTE: Luckyjt

Bub...I don't know what to make of him. Hasn't been much of an influence in reads.

Joh has some good points, though. Ree's townplay that was there D1 has started to come undone. I'm still not doubting scum between Joh and Ree. I think we should keep going a little further with discussion. Please don't declare intent to hammer yet. We don't have to make a decision here and now. Even if we're wrong, whoever out of us is left will still have a lot more to look back on when it gets down to the wire. We have one mislynch left before another ends the game. According to the mod's latest votecount, we have just under 6 days' time before deadline. Plenty of time to keep probing.

Lucky's a bit more clear town now. I'll need to see about Bub and Joh some more before deciding on Zab as he still could be the scum (if not just one of them) pushing the Ree wagon assuming townRee. Bork's still my strongest town read.

I think Joh made a decent analysis, but with the time we have and LyLo impending if we're wrong, I think we should continue hearing Ree.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Tried-and-true scumtell versus AtE with a threat of blacklist. It makes a lot of sense with how Joh's lashing out at this stage. It looks like a breakdown with a decisive stage of the day coming to a close.

I've never liked AtE, the threat just about voids it and I don't make deals, especially not with the mafia. This does give us a few ideas for what to ask if we end up in LyLo because of this, but the last page has me convinced Ree's town.

Don't even try to lynch someone else tomorrow.... really, if you let him live after this (which is just as bad as if you would let me live after a hypothetical townflip on Ree) I'll blacklist you instantly. I'm connected with Ree. One of us are scum. You don't know who yet. But just make sure that you lynch us until you hit scum.

Looks like a gambit. Too WIFOMy for me to tell.

You're welcome to continue discussion, but I think this bout has produced an agreeable lynch for today.

VOTE: Johhog

[ProsecutorGodot]

So that's what "mostly normal" doesn't cover. And with Mehdi's reasoning about the 2:7 setup against 2:1:6, I think Zab was town.

I'm gonna go take a walk down memory lane as well.

@Ree: We'll eat more than that if we're wrong today. It's LyLo.

[ProsecutorGodot]

So, here are my thoughts at this stage:

Bub's latest post makes me think "Really? What use was there in saying that?" WIFOM like that and that's all you have to say? Despite this offhand comment, he's made some good points throughout the game prior to that. But I don't like that he looks a bit like he's trying to gain towncred. He got on board with me and Bork being town and repeated that Joh was town, which we got to find out and if he's scum, he already knew. Looks like a play to attach me or Bork to himself should he die and flip scum.

Ree's a bit suspect because his claim could easily be feigned, supported by the fact that I didn't get a message telling me who he was. That could mean either a roleblocker got him that night or he's lying scum. Either way, Ree, you should out your other target since I can't confirm you on that alone. His play throughout the game has seemed sincere and in the active scumhunt. Might be surprised if he's scum.

I was sure that there was scum between Ree and Joh, but with Joh dead and this to look back on and PoE, I'm not so sure about following Joh's directive. As I said with Sala, town =/= correct. Town = honest, but also uninformed about everyone else's alignment.

Lucky 180'ed yesterday after fumbling around on Day 1. His look at the game today has been good as well, but I can't shake the thought that it looks scripted. Again, this comes after he threw himself at the town's mercy. It looks like a gambit that worked as he is still among us. His "I'm still alive?" comment from Day 1 reeks as well.

Bork has had maybe a couple of moments, but I still think he's town through and through. His and Sala's questioning of Mehdi's questions seemed strange, especially now given that he was town going out onto the floor to talk. I thought that for a while and thought we could have gotten somewhere with a claim from Mehdi, which is why I declared intent to hammer. He has seemed active in the scumhunt throughout the game regardless. I thought the N2 scum target would have been me or him. I'll ask about why Zab died after the game.

In conclusion, I think the most likely scumteam is Lucky and Bub. Mostly by PoE and preponderance of the evidence. Let's keep talking until we need to lynch, though.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Actually, the kill is the last action that resolves each night. Says so on the wiki under Natural Action Resolution. JK modifies your action, then whatever other effects took place, then the kill comes last.

[ProsecutorGodot]

So now that I'm back and thought about that point for a bit, Ree's claim makes a lot of sense and the fact that I didn't ever get a message to clear him outright doesn't mean we need to lynch him. Mehdi had continual suspicion of Ree throughout the first day. I think in order to try to prevent that night's kill (or at least counter whichever scum may have had a PR) he jailed Ree, hence why I didn't get any special message. Zab died last night, which was a surprise even for me considering our discussion about his scumminess for the first two days, which, assuming that Ree is telling the truth, is why his message last night didn't go through for us to see.

Another read through has made me conflicted between Bork and Lucky. Picking through Bork's D1 play got me to thinking that, early on, he seemed careful when arguing his case for his Sala vote against my Bork vote at that time. He later (but not too far later) started thinking somewhat alike with me. Looking at Lucky, he has picked up since his good D2 post to start off and reacted well enough when I questioned him about it. And I am a bit wary of Bork. He's been with me on most everything since we clashed on D1. The same thing happened in my first game on this site, Newbie 1259. Turns out I was thinking the same thing scum was thinking.

I still think Bub's scum. It'll be quite the head-scratcher if we lose by giving him the rope.

I would not doubt the possibility of Bork/Bub scumteam.

[ProsecutorGodot]

@Godot: Your reads are matching mine right now even though you don't have any solid proof that I'm town. What have you noticed from Bub? What are your current thoughts on Lucky? How do you feel about Bork's reaction when I voted him and claimed?

I think at this stage, I'm more or less in a townhunt. Strange things have happened this game with all three of those remaining that I think could be scum.

Bub: The L-1 wagon that got onto him at the start of the game, then everyone backing down from it looked innocent enough on Bub. His reads list on Post 424 plus his final comment of Day 2 (Post 492) both looked to keep someone around who flat-out said "screw you all" and try to take out a scummy option at the same time for towncred.

About Lucky: My current thoughts on him are that the pair of flips we got from Phase 1 may have been a huge help for him to use in his posts from Day 2 on. His Day 1 play gave me an impression that his opening post the next day was somehow scripted, but he's been more consistent since then. Both ways are entirely possible, but I think he was able to better collect his thoughts once we had two down. His latest post looks like he's trying to write off the entire case for the Friendly Neighbor claim as coincidence that scum can use, but I think that there's just too much coincidence for it to be scummy. As I said before, Mehdi kept pushing that Ree looked scummy to him throughout day 1 and I didn't that Zab, who also looked scummy, would be the mafia's NK choice last night.

Bork's reaction: In light of 1) the breadcrumb explained after your claim, 2) the fact I didn't get the message and 3) Mehdi's suspicion making it highly likely you were jailed Night 1, I believe your claim. You have to keep in mind this is a closed, unusual setup. We've already seen one effect that I haven't ever seen in a game before. There's a possibility that another unusual role is among us.

So, one of these guys is not like the others. I've got it down to Bub, Bork and Lucky by PoE, reading back a bit and the validity of Ree's claim.

To answer your question, Lucky, I would not be willing to vote Ree today because too many pieces fit into place in my understanding of his alignment.

[ProsecutorGodot]

As I said before, Mehdi kept pushing that Ree looked scummy to him throughout day 1 and I didn't

think

that Zab, who also looked scummy, would be the mafia's NK choice last night.

FTFY

[ProsecutorGodot]

All you're saying is that if we believe you're scum we're better off lynching you then trying to guess the scumteam. Derp.

So you would rather just write it off as scum slipping rather than enlighten us as to how Ree is wrong. Uh-huh...

An ISO review on Ree reconfirms my thoughts about him now that I recall the earlier phases of the game. If he hasn't been the strongest town leader in this game, he's been up there. The last bit from Bork looks like a poor attempt at debunking someone who has been leading.

Ree/Lucky scumteam is out of the question. They would have simply hopped aboard Bub's vote on Bork since both of them posted after that and the game would be theirs by now. Ree has a way to back up his claim should we make it to the next day regardless of whether he is alive or not. With that and how Ree's had legitimate suspicions about Bub, that team's out as well. Lucky's D2 play has suggested town, but I really don't get his latest reasons for going after Ree. Smells of fear mongering. 3 of the remaining 4 teams in my understanding have one common denominator: Bork.

HoS: Bork
FoS: Bub

@Bork: Why do you see Bub as town? Looking back through your ISO, I saw your read list putting Bub as your strongest town read on Post 418 because he hadn't done anything scummy after the RVS quickwagon. Care to give us a little more insight on that now? Perhaps what has confirmed him more since then?

[ProsecutorGodot]

Ree/Lucky scumteam is out of the question. They would have simply hopped aboard Bub's vote on Bork since both of them posted after that and the game would be theirs by now.

Is this a "I know scum have daytalk" slip? How else would they be able to coordinate a double quickhammer (neither of them had voted yet) ?

Look at where the votes are now.

Unofficial count:
Bork (1)- Bub
Ree (1)- Bork
Not voting (3)- Ree, Lucky, Godot

If the Ree/Lucky scumteam was real, they wouldn't have had to coordinate a single thing. It's understood that if victory is within your reach, you grab it. Bub would have handed it to them on a silver platter in broad daylight, which is why maintaining a vote like this is anti-town. The fact that we're still going like this doesn't tell me much about how you are town. Both of them have posted at least twice since Bub's vote and he has not posted to retract said vote since. With that, it would have been as simple as both of them typing "Vote: Bork" in one of their recent posts to end it.

The fact that neither of them have voted in this situation is exactly the reason they can't be together as the scumteam.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Just so I have this clear,

VOTE: Bub

For being the last to confirm.

Totally right.

vote: Bub Bidderskins

I hate those holdouts.

Bub, you did this back at the beginning of the game. Care to explain why you didn't go straight into your comment on Lucky?

[ProsecutorGodot]

They could have just as easily made sure that there was a time where there would be very little chance that both of them would not be on at a certain time. The point that daytalk is the only way to guarantee that the game can end in scum's favor with a double quickhammer on the spot is void. There was no guarantee that Bub wouldn't pull back his vote in the middle of his last two comments, but you ignore that there was still ample opportunity for it to happen regardless.

I thought that it would be simple logic to agree that a Ree/Lucky scumteam is not possible given today's play. What I would have expected to happen if they were the scumteam did not and still has not. All this talk of daytalk is irrelevant unless someone can give us better proof of its existence. If the scum have daytalk, why should they have not utilized it throughout the entire game? Wouldn't there have been even a small slip about that earlier?

@Bork: What went on earlier in the game that shows us the possibility of daytalk?

P-edit: There would have been a quickhammer if you are town regardless of which of the other three is town. That would leave Bub, Ree and Lucky to lynch you without further discussion with two of them to have clinched victory. Again, there has been a page-long window for them to do you in. If you and Bub are town as you say, that leaves Ree and Lucky as scum. All of this talk and action before then, however, has served to prove that because both of them have not ended the game at this point despite a page's worth of chances to do it, they can't be scum together. They would have followed Bub, voted you and the game would be over. The uncertainty of Bub's return is irrelevant, especially given that Bub did not retract his vote. That leaves scum among you and Bub if you aren't both scum.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Below be the wall of summaries:

Bork

Town case:

Kept calm and on-track when I voted him after his vote on Sala. Started making good points throughout the first two days and looked to make an honest effort in questioning.

Scum case

: Brings out the possibility of daytalk on day 3 when surely someone would have slipped that by now. If Ree/Lucky was the scumteam and they did have daytalk, you would have thought Lucky wouldn't have been playing the way he was for ALL of day 1. Now starts looking to get the remainder of the town to mistrust his attackers. Lashing out today when he had me down as town for a while doesn't help that out. Conducting the Mehdi quickwagon near the end of day 1 seems possible that it could have been to draw out his claim if not get a lynch.

Bub

Town case:

L-1 out of the gate looked like scum was taking a gamble on getting out of the first day entirely. Day 1 is an important informational phase and the sooner someone gets lynched, the better for them. Makes a valid point that Lucky explained his early-stage vote a little much. D3 post about Lucky does have merit to it as 524 seems passive-aggressive. Not going in for the hammer in spite of the Amish tell seems reasonable enough. Transitions look smooth enough. This even connects with his current scumteam read:

That leaves my non-wagoning scum pool as [

Sal

, Bork, Lucky].

Scum case:

Self-vote at the start doesn't help us out and I don't think is ever justified regardless of flavor. It also looked like intentionally introducing a moot point in 503 and I had to resist the urge to answer back.

Ree

Town case:

Has stuck his neck out and given a lot of reads from and on himself for a lot of the game. Friendly neighbor claim makes a lot of sense going back and reading. Transitions seem natural from point to point. Comments and reads are pretty clear and let me get quite a bit from what he's saying.

Scum case:

Hole-poking in Mehdi's play Day 1 seemed odd. Friendly neighbor could have been a scum gambit, but is a lesser possibility. Nabbing Joh on the Amish tell could have been a scum move to mislynch on more solid grounds. Trying to turn the NK point into a tell seemed strange as well.

Lucky

Town case:

Posts were strange on D1. D2 turnaround seemed artificial at first, but began looking more genuine as the day went on. D1 play seemed more like wrong reasoning than scummy misleading at the time.

Scum case:

Playing the "I'm an easy lynch" card in LyLo on Day 3 is worse than his attempt to play it day 1. Then turns around and pursues someone who has also been on the lynch table for most of the game. His play helped us out day 2, but it seems someone hit the switch again (or he chose to do well yesterday so he wouldn't be brought up as a major option today) Seems to push too hard that he doesn't want to be the lynch. Yes, if he is town, his lynch means game over, but I think that should be understood rather than forced, especially where that becomes a focal point alongside his primary scumread. Not liking how he's trying to write off PoE as reasoning just because he has someone on him. All in all, D3 play seems very defensive.

To conclude:

I'm reconsidering who else is scum with Bork.

HoS: Bork
FoS: Lucky

[ProsecutorGodot]

297 and 312 is where you basically say "I'm still alive?"

Also, you're right. You played it yesterday. 414 is where you brought it up before. Among several oddities (such as the non-falsifiable statement where you considered a self-hammer and your wrong comment about the ISO function (which goes in chronological order of the user's last post, not necessarily in alphabetical order)) there is this:

Now my final point if Im just going to be a lynch you guys are going to keep coming too then please lynch me today. I dont want to get lynched today. I was fine with being lynched yesterday but with two town flips already I dont think its the best choice, but if you guys will come back to lynching me tomorrow just get rid of me today.

I will always be that easy lynch because of my way of handling pressure where I crumble in anger.

Because I can be sure as hell I will be a target for the lynch tomorrow if I am not lynched today or killed tonight.

There are no guarantees that we can take you at your word at this stage.

Also, I read again. I looked back at what you said earlier. I looked back at what you've said today. This continued defensiveness certainly doesn't help me believe you're town. Also, you look like you're flailing at this point. You say you're tunneling on Ree with the likely possibility of Bork as his partner, then you turn around about a page later and say that I could be scum with Bub. Where's the transition to that conclusion? Nowhere since, according to you, nothing happened between then and now other than Bub's accusation. If nothing happened, how can you possibly take Reescum out of your reads? Where's your argument about your concluded possibility?

158: I reached on that point and you agreed. Still didn't see a good reason why since it doesn't ever make sense scum would set up anything on one person at the expense of two kills. That math never adds up. Never.
209: The classic pursuit of lurkers. Scum delicacies. He was acting strange and scummy (he usually does from my experience playing with him and reading some of his other games) and lurking was the best you could come up with?
297, 312: This appeals to the emotion that triggers my desire to vote someone who uses that at all. Only reason I didn't vote you was because I saw Sala as a better lynch at that time.
512: Why does removing one's self from the lynch table sound strange to you when you've tried to do it since yesterday and pushed artificially hard for yourself to stay off today? It should be easy to see from his perspective--if he's not going to lynch himself and he's not going to push for my lynch, that doesn't leave much anyone else who is still alive, yourself included.
516: Of course he would claim, given what his role is, especially since a) this will help us going into N3 should we lynch correctly today and b) it makes a lot of sense in the context of the game. Plus, bussing doesn't make a lot of sense to do right out of the start of the day. We all knew Ree would be in the spotlight today given what happened between him and Joh. He has explained his moves with his votes since then.
534: What happened to your comment at the end? Why haven't you mentioned anything about Bork's and Bub's votes since this? The rest of it is WIFOM with no basis to show any possibility of truth.

All in all, your play today reeks of tearing holes in logic without patching them. I'm not inclined to believe you're on to anything except an attempt to go with Bork's flow so the day (and game) can end ASAP.

[ProsecutorGodot]

I dont understand what you mean by defensiveness. Of course I have to defend myself when someone thinks Im scum. Im not going to let them lynch me. How does make me scum?

Bork, Godot, and Bub all of you are passivley saying I am scum yet I havnt gotten votes from any of you. Its funny how my biggest scum read Ree is the only one who is thinking im town at the moment.

Based on the recent event Godot is by far the most scummy from these three. WHy? Because he flip flopped his reads on me based on what others think. Godot says Im scum, then Ree says Im town, Godot starts saying I am looking more towny than before, a couple post later Bub says I am scum and now Godot says I am scum. ????

Anyone else see this flip flop? The only problem with this is that I dont think a Godot Ree team is possible so I am sonfused.

And godot it is very proveable that i will vote myself when I am angry. Ask Bub in our open game were I was a town cop/role cop and I voted myself at like L-3 because I felt the town was acting dumb.

You post defensiveness to the exclusion of reading the game for what it is. You don't seem to look past your attackers. That makes some sense, but not when this is the bulk of your reasoning. And we haven't voted yet because we're trying to get as much information as we possibly can before we have to end the day with a lynch. Once again, you fail to see the point of prolonging the day. We still have about 4 and a half RL days before we must lynch. For now, we're still going in the HoS/FoS format for the most part. Besides, you said we shouldn't cast down votes until you found Ree's supposed scumpartner.

Now I suggest we dont vote yet in order to see if we can find his partner for tomorrow if we decide to lynch Ree.

I am having a very hard time figuring this out. I want everyone to answer me this question. Would you be willing to vote Ree. If yes why, if not why not and who do you see as scum over him. I want everyone's thoughts down so It can help me decide who his partner is. I have a nose for telling who's answers is fake-smelling.

I don't see where that's happened. You call me a flip-flop and here you are first saying "Don't vote until I find Ree's partner" and then asking "Why haven't you voted me if I'm so scummy?"

And calm down. I don't care much to hear why you vote for yourself or the fact that you do because it seems like you're playing a gambit based on meta. Again, you accuse Ree of taking himself off the lynch table without reason or merit and here you are forcing the point home to where if any of us dares think you, of all people, are scum, you'll ragequit. It's a game. Yes, we pour ourselves into it, but if it aggravates you that much, step back from the computer.

And again, you try to tear holes in reasoning, but where are the facts that close those gaps?

[ProsecutorGodot]

No lynch is not an option.

VOTE: Luckyjt

Today, Lucky has told us a lot about how we have him made out wrong, but not proportionally as much about why we should lynch who he wants to lynch. Speaking of, there are so many possibilities open from what he has said and yet not much is out there to narrow the field down for us to read. Bury it in some WIFOM and we have someone trying too hard to not die. Of course we know you don't want to die. That should be implied given the situation and not forced down our throats.

[ProsecutorGodot]

Bork had been bothering me at the start of D3 because of an experience in my first newbie game (1259) where the player who shared my reasoning and thoughts was scum. I didn't learn about that until after I was dead and she was lynched the next day to end it. This was also why Lucky came off as suspicious D1.

Lucky played fearfully on D3, which was a huge turnaround from his willingness to "die for our sake" D1.

Ree, Bub, it was good getting to work with you this game. Nice job in finishing things up in our favor.

Mehdi, your play was very effective even after your death. It helped us out in piecing the claim together and doubling as scumbait.

Sala, Joh, DJD, it was still pretty fun with you around.

Zab, I think you did a decent job as well. Thought you were iffy in places, but you helped keep the ball in our court.

DCLXVI/666, this was a good, fun setup. I like how the janitor messed things up in clearing Ree at first and it took a timely jail N1 to sort that out. Even then, it was an educated guess at best. FN turned out interesting as well. Jailer was a nice addition as well and I don't think it tipped the balance enough to throw gaming the system into question.

D1 and D2 weren't the best days in the world, but were necessary to get to hanging scum.

Overall, this was a fun and interesting game to play. Even in the low points, this was still a fun time. I hope to get to play with some of you in the future (and with a couple of you, I'm already doing just that)