Micro 295: Cowardly Hider Mafia (Game Over)
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Howdo, GiF?
Claims are pointless,
Not doing RVS,
Confirming myself as town,
Yattai-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Oh. ooooh. Shit, you're correct.
I dunno if Notsci is the right guy to come out the gate swinging on. Dude's always difficult for me to read, and his flails always trip me up.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Oh nvm, I get it. D:
I also think claims aren't reliable due to game mode. Scum have all the info.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
I think if everyone claims all at once, it'd make it more difficult for scum to hide.
S'bout our best bet as far as brokering off of claims go.
P-EDIT:
Dunno how to feel about you town-reading me ever again.
Guess I take it with a grain of salt?-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
So are we going to stick with a massclaim or not?
It'd be supes awkward if only like three people claimed.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
UNVOTE: GuyInFreezer
I want other people to get in here.
Other people, get in here.
I'm not convinced that Bubba's reasoning on Xay in 33 makes sense. Well, I mean, it does, but it's a stretch. I think that Xay's confusion about RVS is logical as any alignment because until his posts it was just me and GiF going back and forth.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Crumbs can help anyone. The problem is that now that we've talked about crumbs, scum can just comb for them. Not cool and stuff.
BRO, please don't shoot me.
I get what GiF means with massclaiming and coming up with lynch pools.
That's the kind of thing I typically do.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
You guuuuys
We need to work together.
Meta is rubbish, by the way!
VOTE: BRO
Why the push on Ghat?-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
If you hide and hit scum, you die (unless scum commutes).
You can't claim that you hid behind someone and that it therefore clears them because scum can lie about this AND scum can commute.
So, really, why would anyone hide behind anyone ever?
It's a thousand times easier if we all just never hide and try to pin scum through lynches.
I say we forget the mechanics entirely. Too scum-based. Too easily for scum to kill multiple town one night. Results mean nothing too.
We minimize town deaths by never hiding.
Easymode engaged.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Of course, this requires everyone to play a truly vanilla game of Mafia.
Terrifying.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
I've been thinking about it for awhile and I'm pretty sure that's the optimal game strategy.
There's literally no reason to hide behind someone.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
I think that if you hide behind someone and scum tries to kill you, then you will not die.
The problem is:
If you hide behind scum, you die.
If the person you are hiding behind is killed, you die too.
If you and another hider hide behind each other, nothing happens and so you can still get shot and die.
Cons outweigh the benefits easily, as there's just too many ways for scum to get extra kills out of it.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
So if no one hides, then we don't have to worry about...
Scum getting multiple kills,
Hider-based WIFOM (fake-claims, lynching based on claimed actions, WIFOMing night deaths, etc).-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Wiki says it makes it to where you can't be targeted if you use your commute night action.
I played a game before where there was a commuter but he could only commute every other night.
Basically, in this game, if you hide behind someone and live, then you could 'confirm' them as town,
but that's useless since scum can commute, and therefore make it so your hide wouldn't kill you,
so Hide can't confirm anyone as town in this game, because Commute exists.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
(It's okay, I had to look up the roles, too. Even then, we might have variant roles, since Cabd's sample role PM for scum says 'The details of your abilities and scum-only info are in your QuickTopic', so maybe scum can't commute every day or they have some other stipulations? I'm just going to assume they are straight up Commuters capable of doing a night-kill if they don't commute.)-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Also, there's this:
P-EDIT:2: All night actions are optional. There is no requirement to kill, commute, or hide.
@Ghato: And if that townread is scum, then you die.
If that town-read is killed, you also die.
In fact, if there's a town player that doesn't seem like they'll be killed, then wouldn't scum target them, hoping to find a bunch of hiders clinging to them?
Too risky.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Let's say you hide behind someone N1 and you don't die.
That still does nothing for you, because if that person could be scum using a commute.
The only way we can reliably make hiding less anti-town is if we get the scum down to 1.
Even at that point, if scum was smart with their kills/commutes then it'd be a WIFOM-to-Death situation before they found 'em.
Hiding just doesn't help town.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
I've been looking at iterations of EVERYONE HIDING and they're all terrible.
The more hiders present, the worse the swing is.
Too much chance of hitting scum and dying.
Too much chance of a hider chain getting obliterated by a lucky night kill.
Literally no info gained, either.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
If we play this vanilla, then you only have a 1/7 or a 1/6 chance of dying N1, depending on if scum or town is lynched.
If you hide behind someone, then you pick up a 1/7 or a 1/6 chance of bulletproof, but then you ALSO pick up a 2/9 or 1/9 chance of dying because of hiding behind scum on top of a 1/7 or 1/6 chance of dying because the person you hid behind was shot.
The bulletproofiness doesn't outweight the chance of death.
If we all don't use hide at all, we drastically increase our chances of survival.
On top of that, scum can't hide in the results or WIFOM claims and bullshit to victory.
Check. And it'll be damn near check-mate the second we catch the first scum with a lynch.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
So, from a cynical, survivalist perspective, you're more likely to die with a slight gamble of negating the night kill (but not other deaths because other hiders exist and one of them might hide on scum).
From a communal perspective, hiding is absolutely anti-town.
Why are you so concerned with staying alive anyway?-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Your chance of being bulletproof is instantly negated by the same probability of your hide-target being shot, and then you pick up the extra chance of you just dying because you targeted the wrong person with your hide.
Hiding makes YOU more likely to die just for doing it, and enables multiple kills at night.
You're right. Scum aren't shooting randomly--they're making an informed decision. They have all the information, too. They know how many hiders there are. They'll be able to make the same inferences that anyone else could make about who is likely to be shot, hid behind, etc. If anything, this improves their chance of getting multiple kills at night, and if the scum-team is internally WIFOMing it, they can just random number generate to avoid that entire mental game altogether.
If my death helps catch scum, I'll die right now.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
The way I see it, there's way more town than scum. I'm expendable. I'll gladly throw myself into danger if it means I can catch scum in the process.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
In post 211, BROseidon wrote:
Hence my plan to use that to secure scum lynches...In post 179, Varsoon wrote:If you hide behind scum, you die.
Both of these are moot points because the scum has daychat AND they can commute, which meansIn post 213, GuyInFreezer wrote:Theres one way to go with the setup, and that is to divide the players to 3~4 subgroups based on claims after massclaiming at the same time and make the hider from the group check one of the other group.
Didnt really wanted to out this plan until the massclaim happened, but since we can't get everyone to massclaim, might as well out it.
1. Results mean nothing.
2. Scum can claim safely and use commute/kills to make their claims seems legit.
Massclaiming only gives scum MORE info, since it informs scum WHO the hiders are, which further informs night kills on VTs.
Hiding is useless and anti-town.
If people keep pushing for some mass-hiding strategy or something of the like, I will scum-read them.
Hiding enables multiple town deaths with no tangible benefits.
If no one hides, there can only be one town death every night.
If no one hides, then we don't have to worry about bullshit hider-commuter WIFOM.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
The hole is that you would never know if scum tampered with them or not, because WIFOM on commutes and kills and claims.
Info gained is unreliable info,
which is bad info,
which is what scum want.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
In post 292, GuyInFreezer wrote:And I think it's about time we get a readlist out of BRO.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
I spent an acceptable amount of time developing the optimal strategy. :3
penguin_alien - Null-town, lacks the usual sketchiness I see from the slot as scum. Hasn't contributed enough for me to solid-read.
Xayzeck - Null-scum. Needs to get in the game. Feels distant.
GuyInFreezer - Null. Paranoid about how quick GiF is to read me without strident interaction. GiF has been really tripping me out in the last few games we've been in.
Varsoon - Town.
BROseidon - Scum. Feels dodgy and hasn't latched on to anyone like I'm used to town-BRO.
bubbajack8 - Null-scum. No presence. Feels like he's avoiding attention.
Ghatokaca - Town. Interactions are geniune and read strong to me.
notscience - Null. Impossible for me to read. Don't like recent play.
Jessica - Scum. Don't like any interaction from this slot. Seems contrived.
List Form:
TOWN
Varsoon
Ghato
Penguin
GiF
Notsci
Xay
Bubba
Jessica
BRO
SCUM
I think that covers it.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
I spent an acceptable amount of time developing the optimal strategy. :3
penguin_alien - Null-town, lacks the usual sketchiness I see from the slot as scum. Hasn't contributed enough for me to solid-read.
Xayzeck - Null-scum. Needs to get in the game. Feels distant.
GuyInFreezer - Null. Paranoid about how quick GiF is to read me without strident interaction. GiF has been really tripping me out in the last few games we've been in.
Varsoon - Town.
BROseidon - Scum. Feels dodgy and hasn't latched on to anyone like I'm used to town-BRO.
bubbajack8 - Null-scum. No presence. Feels like he's avoiding attention.
Ghatokaca - Town. Interactions are geniune and read strong to me.
notscience - Null. Impossible for me to read. Don't like recent play.
Jessica - Scum. Don't like any interaction from this slot. Seems contrived.
List Form:
TOWN
Varsoon
Ghato
Penguin
GiF
Notsci
Xay
Bubba
Jessica
BRO
SCUM
I think that covers it.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
I thought you were scum against me awhile ago. Maybe I'm trippin'.
As for Notsci, recent stuff feels less genuine to me. It's mostly a gut-null. Players like that are hard for me to read.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
:3
Wanted to see your reaction to me calling you scum.
You're really more around the null-scum area, although your response was pretty solid.
Town-minded justifications, and a response that lacked the typical venom/malice/attempt at casting me down that I usually get from scum-reading scum-players.
I'm really iffy about this playerbase. The problem is that all you guys are good, and you've all fooled me at one point in the past. Either that or I don't know you at all and the input here isn't substantive enough for me to really dig in.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
So you guys spammed the thread and killed BRO off before I even got to reply to anything. ;_; I copied my post into Word and saved it for today, so here is:
@GiF: You've always been the biggest anomaly for me. You're a strong player, it's tough for me to read you (I almost always default town you), and you've fooled me since I began. You have this intricate knowledge of me (like that one time you said you knew my average times of being online, etc) and I always feel really exposed around you. At first I was like, "So long as GiF townreads me in my town games, I'll know I'm cleared!" but then that quickly changed because I realized you would scum-read me in your scum games if you ever wanted me dead. Between Nacho and Bauss, you've become one of my favorite/most challenging players to play against. I've got to stay on my toes around you, and I feel like it's foolish to ever declare you absolutely scum or absolutely town.
@BRO: So, Ghato and GiF are scum now? D:
@Jessica: I'd be down for a NotSci lynch, but I don't think it'd be as worthwhile as one on another player with more interactions. Still, if it's scum, it's scum.
@Bubba: That's the problem! You've posted things, but when I think about you I'm always like, "What did that guy post?" Maybe I'm just an amnesiac or something. Seriously, though, your ISO doesn't have really hard scum-hunting rolling into its votes and your other comments on the game feel like they don't really put you at risk or anything.
;_;
Now Bubba can't contribute.
But I am happy to see that no one else died! At the very least, I can take pleasure in the chance that maybe everyone listened to me and didn't hide at all!-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
I'm noided as fuck.
I still think Ghato is town, but I don't know how to feel about GiF.
@Jessica: 'cus there's a chance he's not scum and then we get nothing out of it and we're fucked.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Probably, since BRO always carries the shit out of his town games. Or, at least, always brags about carrying the shit out of his town games.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Gotta figure that it's one or more of...
1- Scum figured out he was a VT.
2- He was a threat to Scum.
3- Scum thought people would be hiding behind him.
I think that I was too obvious of a target. With a lot of people town-reading me, it seems like people would avoid hiding behind me because of the danger of me getting shot. Alternatively, if scum are aiming their shots to try to catch hiders, then choosing someone like Bubba (who a hider might try to hide behind in order to soft-cop) makes more sense than choosing someone that's less likely to draw hider attention. Again, this is why I said that hiders shouldn't hide--it denies scum the ability to get multiple kills through kill-strategy.
What bothers me right now are a few things:
BRO dies damning GiF and Ghato. They're both still alive.
I'm left alive--which means my reads are probably shit.
Bubba is killed, which feels like a red herring/killing someone outside of the BRO/GiF/Ghato trinity and outside of the NotSci/Jessica push.
We're too set up for a mislynch, which is why I'm holding my vote close to my chest.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Staying off the GiF wagon, I feel too conflicted about it.
On one hand, I can't trust GiF and the hammer/BRO's last few posts really get to me.
On the other, I'm still alive and I know if I put my vote somewhere, town will likely follow, so I feel like I'm getting duped.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Yesterday Jessica was pushing for a NotSci lynch, and the game throttled into the BRO lynch instead.
Today, NotScience is town-reading me and both the people that BRO damned while dying are both alive.
Feels like I'm being set up to push on GiF (or Ghato, even) and diverted from the yesterday-building wagon on NotSci.
Of course, that all could be a ruse, too, and maybe that's why NotScience was left alive, because there were people FoS'ing him at the end of D1.
Which is why, despite him being my highest scum-read, I'm hesitant.
Pretty much all my reads are/were nulls ;_;-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
It really bothers me that all the strongest town players are left alive and all the most FoS'd players of yesterday were also left alive.
There's something I'm missing. I guess I'll stare at the VCs for awhile.-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Scum'll do anything. That's how they win. The second you're like, "Oh man, scum wouldn't do that", that's when you're letting scum hide behind reason and logic.
GiF, can you give me some input on things that are not-BRO?-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
Thoughts on the outburst of votes on daystart?
What makes you think Ghato wasn't just scum destroying BRO on D1?
How do I know you're the real GiF?
You can't fake-claim Jailkeeper, either. :3-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
In post 397, Xayzeck wrote:VOTE: Ghato
I can't do ISOs right now, I'm putting my vote back where it was for now. If you have questions for me I'll get to them in about 12 hours.
Within 20 posts of each other, first three within half an hour of each other.In post 410, Xayzeck wrote:I think scum were expecting the hiders not to hide, since it's pretty established already that hiding only helps scum. And of all the people, bubba?
I don't like how GiF just hammered Bro without hesitation though. Though I doubt scum would do something that dumb, I'll call it scummy.
VOTE: GiF-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
-
-
Varsoon Scatman
- Scatman
- Scatman
- Posts: 18738
- Joined: February 18, 2013
D:In post 464, Ghatokaca wrote:Varsoon, please don't pull dumb shit like that ever again.
I thought it'd flip scum and everyone would be like "Varsoon so best" and then we'd win
And with GiF dead and town I'm pretty much lost so
Gonna spend forever internally waffling before doing anything ever again.