UK Meet 2015 Invitational (Game Over)

[ChannelDelibird]

Statistics warrant a VOTE: Porochaz.

Also, hello!

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, so you're statistically the most likely to be scum, but even if we lynch you and you're town it doesn't matter because you'll probably win anyway?

[ChannelDelibird]

Why you gotta hate on the Prozac wagon?

[ChannelDelibird]

Nexus's alignment should be pretty definitive within four or five pages so not that worried about him right now.

I'm way town, though!

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB how do you feel about this game right now?

A little sad that not everyone has yet turned up but excited to get going! The stats joke might not have been the best way to start the game (if nothing else, I have a feeling I did the same gag in last year's invitational) but there's probably less need for arbitrary votes in a game where we all know each other so I don't think there was another vote that better needed making.

[ChannelDelibird]

UNVOTE: Porochaz
VOTE: inspiratieloos

[ChannelDelibird]

bad cdb

Why?

[ChannelDelibird]

OK! Let's wagon inspie!

[ChannelDelibird]

Feel a bit awkward. Honestly kinda understand the votes on me and am rather self-conscious at the moment as a result so I don't want to force anything but inspie's entrance was kinda bad, yo.

[ChannelDelibird]

You're right. I'm scum and I decided to confess. I've never been flustered by a wagon on me as town before. Certainly not at the very meet which thus we celebrate.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yeah but you also get flustered as scum.

Sure. Doesn't make Nexus right.

Why are you flustered over a small wagon?

Well, it's irrational, but here's the thought process, more or less:

1) So I say something awkward/recognise that people think I said something awkward
2) Aware that if I say something else awkward, maybe it'll snowball and I'll get lynched (as has happened before)
3) Aware that nothing else is happening in this game right now so people are going to be particularly keen to get things going, looks like that's going to be on me
4) Because nothing else is happening in this game right now, there's not a lot about which I can think other than how people are thinking about me

I mean, ultimately I'm reasonably confident that after a bit of pressure people should realise that I'm town, and of course the game has to start somewhere, but right now the game's set up for me to be very self-conscious, so here I am. I guess this is what early votes are for? It's just more helpful to me when they poke at people whose alignments I don't already know.

[ChannelDelibird]

Feel a bit awkward. Honestly kinda understand the votes on me and am rather self-conscious at the moment as a result so I don't want to force anything but inspie's entrance was kinda bad, yo.

I had to put some reason for voting Poro.

As for you, I'm not really seeing the problem, you did something notable in RVS so people voted you. The only thing I don't get is why you went off Poro just when his wagon might go somewhere.

If you wanted Prozac to maybe get flustered by the votes on him, wouldn't a naked vote have been more likely to accomplish that than jumping on the stats thing, which makes it look more like a joke?

[ChannelDelibird]

'way town' was a comment on my alignment, not a judgement on my own posts

[ChannelDelibird]

AV's vote seemed townish, I thought.

[ChannelDelibird]

I've just re-read and now I feel like I have a bit more of a handle on this game...

In what way?

[ChannelDelibird]

Yay! Fences are town!

[ChannelDelibird]

Now let's get this inspie wagon choo-chooing.

[ChannelDelibird]

Nexus's alignment should be pretty definitive within four or five pages so not that worried about him right now.

Town, for the record.

[ChannelDelibird]

I certainly didn't mean to make you uncomfortable! It was 100% a joke vote.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hello! I got prodded. Mostly been ill last few days so not felt like saying much but have been reading. I'm not averse to an AVote but I still prefer inspie as likeliest scum. Not really that interested in a Prozac vote at the moment.

[ChannelDelibird]

Not sure how I forgot to post here but oops, let me check I didn't miss anything.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB: you have inspi as most scummy, neutral on AVox, and Poro as not voteworthy. What are your reasons for these reads, please?

Inspie isn't anything that I haven't said in thread but I feel like his entrance was empty and unhelpful, and his subsequent justification of it seemed like he was making it up a bit after the fact. I liked your #77 in that regard.

AVox is probably up from neutral to scummy now. I thought his first couple of posts were pretty nondescriptly Avoxy and was waiting to get a bit more input but his interactions with you on Wednesday don't look great. The fact that his last posts are asking a couple of clarificationy questions on which he never followed up doesn't sit well to me - looks more like scum posting to be seen posting rather than town actually trying to get answers to figure out anything.

Prozac just seems pretty town. He's here, and he's making some kind of effort even if he's admittedly struggling to get into things at times. His reads are maybe not meshing with others' perfectly and he's had some heat with which to deal but he doesn't strike me as particularly rattled by it.

[ChannelDelibird]

If it's a direct choice between the two:

VOTE: AurorusVox

[ChannelDelibird]

What does give me pause is that AV did a better job of faking engagement with the game and scumhunting when he was scum in the Scumdon invitational.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hooray for hito! Bit of a prod-dodge but you'll hear from me later this evening.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hang on, let me stuff a pizza in the oven and then figure out what's up in this game.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm rereading some of the end of Day 1 that I mostly missed (apologies for that 'n' stuff). Hito kill strikes me as odd; I might have been prepared to go after him for some of his AV push. I guess scum were pushing for activity kills and, if they were, I would have thought that Ampersand were a more obvtown option.

This could get invalided next post I read but wanted to post it so it's obvious that I'm not just dodging tonight.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, caught up now. Follow-up to previous post: I think hito dying over Ampersand might make a bit more sense if Shanba is scum.

CDB, specifically, you voted AV because you thought Prozac looked fairly town; what do you think about Shanba, and his reasons in #104? In retrospect, I would've expected you to press him on that.

I found Shanba's #104 re: Prozac pretty dry and uninteresting; it certainly didn't do anything to persuade me at the time. Now I'm rereading it just after thinking 'I wonder if hito was right about Shanba' so there's a bit of bias coming into the read, but it does feel a little like motions are being gone through. It's not obvious why Shanba seems to frame it as if he must choose between Nexus and Prozac right now. His reasons for the Prozac vote are ... yeah, dry. Like, he's pointing out behaviour that is not what anyone would call ideal, I guess, but I don't really feel like it's anything out of the ordinary.

VOTE: Shanba

I still think that Nexus is town. Ampersand and Primate are also pretty strong townreads. Shanba + one of Elmo/Prozac? Maybe. I'm probably going to concentrate on getting one before I start worrying about partners too much.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hito kill strikes me as odd; I might have been prepared to go after him for some of his AV push.

Is this true? Did you think hito came off as scummy for pushing the AV lynch, and if so, in what way?

Bear in mind that I only really read anything of hito's after his death, so I knew he was town, but I definitely thought that he was making some real stretches re: AV as scum here and here, and it occurred to me that I might have accused him of overelaborately trying to build himself into a position from which he could hammer AVtown and have it look earned. It's possible that elements of that were actually true, but obviously not due to a scum motivation. But I did think that it was odd that he wasn't alive.

I still think that Nexus is town.

Can you elaborate on this? CES is trusting you on this read, but I'd like to know more about where it's coming from.

Uh, kinda? Usually I can basically just tell whether or not he's putting on a persona; it's kind of hard to explain. But one thing I can point out is that I think, when Nexus is scum, he struggles to replicate the belief in less popular opinions that he sometimes has. He's more likely to aggressively go with the crowd than convincingly push something alternative which he believes is right. This post, in which he rejected talk of inspie-scum, when he had three votes at the time and probably could have been pushed further, strikes me as more likely to come from him as town than scum and is when I solidified my townread on him.

More broadly, I think Nexus has been consistently and visibly invested in the game and in trying to make things happen, and looks extremely honest. He's the scummer whom I can most accurately read and, at this point, I'd be really surprised if he were scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

Need to think about some things but that felt very town from Shanba. Hmmm

UNVOTE: Shanba

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm here! Skimming up a bit. I have no reason to doubt Prozac's claim.

[ChannelDelibird]

Not voting Nexus. If I had to vote right now, it'd be Elmo, but that's more a function of townreads elsewhere, at least one of which must be wrong. Will reread a bit this afternoon and see what shakes out.

[ChannelDelibird]

I have no reason to doubt Prozac's claim.

This is me saying that a tracker wouldn't have seen me visit anyone last Night.

Mafia tracker is a thing but Prozac feels town, and the track on me seems reasonable for either alignment.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hello Tammy, thanks for replacing in!

Sorry for the continued blips of activity, guys; I've let myself get really distracted from the site over the last few days for reasons unclear to me.

People questioning my Nexus read is pretty incredibly meh, though. I don't even understand it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Gonna read over some stuff during work this evening.

[ChannelDelibird]

Read is actually happening right this minute. Don't worry about me re: deadline and stuff. Just got this page left to finish off.

[ChannelDelibird]

My impression is that CDB doesn't strongly bus that often. And seems like it kinda has been working? But this still feels like I'm being dumb. Basically I need someone to tell me why my theory is stupid so I can stop considering it.

Last time that I was scumbuddies with Nexus, I bussed him into a volcano.

[ChannelDelibird]

<snip>

The reasonings for these feel like they should be closer in your reads than farther apart.

I don't really see what you mean.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB having that many town reads seems off at this point.

Why? Ampersand, at least, are on record as feeling similarly. And I acknowledged that something must be wrong with my townreads because I have too many of them, anyway.

Hey, CDB, what's your read on Primate/Tammy now, and why?

I thought Primate was pretty solidly town throughout for just general stuff (I've obviously been distracted, so I don't really remember much of how it formed other than that he just struck me as town). I'm used to other people providing most of my Tammy reads for me, I think, but nothing that she's said so far specifically damages that read, but really I've got nothing on her either way so far. I'm not sure that this is a playerlist likely to push her into extreme readability as others are.

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, let's organise a few reads as things stand.

STRONG TOWN - I would be very surprised if any of these were scum and I can remember why I feel so strongly

Nexus
Ampersand

LEAN TOWN

Prozac - probably not worth lynching based on claim? Think he's seemed relatively OK in terms of honesty as well
Elmo - investment level seems to have risen lately while others fall, suggests protown actually wanting us to pull together a good lynch rather than slide into a crap one via inactivity

LEAN/ED TOWN BUT KINDA FORGOT WHY

Tammy - Might have to consider this possibility, I guess? Maybe I should be worrying about the replace-out. But I did think Primate was town

HAS HAD TOWN MOMENTS

Shanba - Reasonably likely to have been complicit in the hitokill but I did think that one post I mentioned earlier sounded very town. But probably not as town as the others

I guess I kinda forgot that this game was quite as small as it is. Knowing that two of those reads are wrong, now that I actually write them all down in front of my own face, is pretty concerning.

VOTE: Shanba is probably where I feel most comfortable but I ought to look again at Tammy's slot, Prozac and Elmo before deadline.

[ChannelDelibird]

Here and keeping an eye on this during work.

I feel conflicted about a Shanba lynch but I don't think that there's any option with which I'd be completely comfortable. Given that, lynching the VT claim seems sensible enough.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB - your read on Nexus was based on his engagement and activity in early game. Does his lack of activity on Day 2 do nothing to modify that read?

No more than anyone else's lack of activity has.

[ChannelDelibird]

You'd say it's no different? I might not have been amazingly active, but I have definitely read every part of the game as it's happened, and commented on it.

And you're possibly the only person who could say as much. We don't have six scum. And Nexus tends to burn brightly before starting to fade a bit anyway.

How confident would you say you are in your Nexus-read? Like, how accurate do you think it is, how surprised would you be to be wrong, how likely would you be to put money on it if that were an option. (Note: not asking you to actually put any money on it, no rule-breaking, but this is a metric that I personally use to judge how certain I am on a lynch.)

To my memory, the only time when I have been wrong about Nexus's alignment as town on the forum is when I ended up second-guessing myself in Red Wedding Mafia, having correctly identified him as town early on Day 1 in that game and vociferously backing that read for several Days. I put a lot of stock into my read on him. I won't say I'm 100% but really the only reason why there's any doubt at all in my mind is because there are a handful of people expressing suspicion of him and maybe he's just suddenly really good at fooling me somehow. But I don't really see how he would become so good at obfuscating his alignment to me in a way that tips off other people to him being scum. I would put money on him being town, yes.

Feel free to provide this information in comparison to your other reads, too.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7044777

I would probably put money on you guys being town as well but, if I only had one bet, it would be on Nexus. I am not sure enough to say the same about anyone else.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB - do you think you know what role this is? I'm not looking for the role itself, just your thoughts.

I have a guess but I'm not as sure on that part as I should be. I'm pretty sure that he's told me before but that I've forgotten the specific conversation. He prefers town to scum.

[ChannelDelibird]

Shanba voting no-votes-Elmo with less than 3 hours to deadline is so WTF that it seems like an odd kind of towntell, because what kind of scum tries to not-die by doing that? Tempted to move to Prozac.

[ChannelDelibird]

what do you make of nexus doing the same on no-votes everyone thinks they're town ampersand?

a) he actually seems to have some conviction about his Ampersand suspicion
b) he immediately realised that it was :nothelpful: and stopped

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: Porochaz

[ChannelDelibird]

Would someone please claim scum

Thanks

[ChannelDelibird]

Fuck it. Anyone wanna vote Tammy?

[ChannelDelibird]

Nexus is hanging around on Skype so is at least at a computer with internet

[ChannelDelibird]

People who are around: I'm trying to figure out who is mutually suspected by those who could swing this at deadline.

From memory:

CDB would not vote [CDB/Nexus/Ampersand] would vote [Tammy/Prozac/Elmo/Shanba]
Ampersand would not vote [Ampersand/CDB/Elmo/Nexus] would vote [Shanba/Prozac/Tammy]
Shanba would not vote [Shanba/CDB/Nexus] would vote [Prozac/Ampersand/Elmo/Tammy]
Nexus would not vote [Nexus/CDB/Ampersand/Tammy/Elmo] would vote [Shanba/Prozac]~
Prozac would note vote [Prozac/?] would vote [Ampersand/?]

Prozac, could you spell out a bit more?

[ChannelDelibird]

What about Tammy or Elmo, Prozac? For purposes of the exercise I'm going binary

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB would not vote [CDB/Nexus/Ampersand] would vote [Tammy/Prozac/Elmo/Shanba]
Ampersand would not vote [Ampersand/CDB/Elmo/Nexus] would vote [Shanba/Prozac/Tammy]
Shanba would not vote [Shanba/CDB/Nexus] would vote [Prozac/Ampersand/Elmo/Tammy]
Nexus would not vote [Nexus/CDB/Tammy/Elmo] would vote [Shanba/Ampersand/Prozac]~
Prozac would note vote [Prozac/CDB/Nexus/Tammy] would vote [Ampersand/Shanba/Elmo]

Prozac 4
Shanba 4
Tammy 3
Elmo 3
Ampersand 3

Looks like our best chance of getting a lynch with which we can live is on Prozac or Shanba. Of the two, Shanba gives me much townier vibes Today. I prefer the Prozac vote.

[ChannelDelibird]

Only way I'm voting Ampersand is if it's two minutes to deadline and they're L-1.

[ChannelDelibird]

tho you didn't respond to my "if ur scum u'll break my heart"

I think it was one of about five PEDIT posts while I was doing the would/would not thing. <3 4eva

[ChannelDelibird]

I am a tracker. I am going to die tonight anyway! Or if not you are going to run me up tomorrow. For me, this is a no win if I am scum!

Loads of roles in the deck that could fuck with your results to prevent useful info + set you up for mislynch Tomorrow. It is not as clear-cut as you seem to think.

[ChannelDelibird]

We have an hour, Prozac, not five minutes

[ChannelDelibird]

Shanba (2) -- Ampersand, Prozac
ChannelDelibird (1) -- Elmo
Porochaz (2) -- CDB, Shanba

Not voting: Tammy, Nexus

Unofficial vote count

[ChannelDelibird]

Last vote count was just after 6pm, said 3 hours

but UNVOTE: prozac VOTE: Shanba in case

[ChannelDelibird]

I pretty much think that Shanba would flip town, but I'm at varying stages of that with everyone.

Frankly Tammy would be my vanity last-minute deadline lynch.

[ChannelDelibird]

But either way I'm kind of OK with just getting this out of the way and doing other things with my evening. I don't think I'll be truly satisfied with whoever we lynch, unless and until one of them surprises me by flipping scum.

So if we're going to lynch Shanba, let's just do it with apologies, I guess?

[ChannelDelibird]

Why Tammy?

Wondering if Tammy's sudden burst of activity upon replacing in was scum enjoying the challenge of trying to overcome a pretty barren predecessor's iso and earn some big towncred by injecting some life into a slow game. It's really not much, but Primate looks less town in iso than I remembered him being.

[ChannelDelibird]

Well, I don't really see this going anywhere else.

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB - sorry if you've already said, but what's your read on Elmo?

If Tammy is scum, who do you think she's most likely scum with?

- Fenchurch

thought his investment level Today suggested town

dunno. prozac? i'm confused tbh

[ChannelDelibird]

Tammy first is my preference as well.

[ChannelDelibird]

Not sure which way round his affects your thoughts but I was the tracker in TM.

I'm a VT.

Elmo is next.

[ChannelDelibird]

I believe the Tourist claim fairly unequivocally for balance reasons unless Nexus has a surprise coming.

Those reasons for your role implicating me reeeeeally would have to be supremely convoluted, but the tracker result on me also means nothing anyway so I guess it's a wash.

What did you expect from Tammy? Why is Nexus so town to you that he's not in your plausible scumteams? My first instinct coming into Today was to doubt my biggest reads, though Tammy/Elmo is necessarily my most likely pair now, especially after your claim.

[ChannelDelibird]

If Fences are lying, our town power is Tracker and a lone Mason. Not completely implausible, but I think it likely that there'd be at least something other than the nightkill for the tracker to track, and that other thing potentially being a scum power doesn't really seem to solve that satisfyingly. Tourist is low-powered enough to stop this game feeling like anything particularly madcap, could create doubt for the tracker, and has nice synergy with a reflexive doctor, which strikes as a good scum power for such a game.

I was ready to come into Today to seriously revisit Ampersand in case I was wrong on them but the claim really just makes me think that I was right.

I think it's Tammy and Elmo, basically.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why do we think we have a reflexive doctor again? I must've missed something.

Nothing definitive, but that's definitely the scum power that I would pick if I were designing a game with a tracker and a lone mason and a tourist as the town's power. It's also very possibly the one that I would pick even without a tourist, but think the tourist makes for a better setup. It makes the mason sorta mean something, it makes the tourist potentially mean something, it gives the tracker a chance to not die. It feels like the right amount of protection in a nine-player game. And I'm pretty sure that it's a role of which Patrick is a fan in general.

I don't think that the above makes it more likely that we'd be able to find scum based on who might be a mafia reflexive doctor but, if I had to bet on the setup, that'd be my punt.

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh ffs I completely forgot about this. Hang on

[ChannelDelibird]

Why is Nexus so town to you that he's not in your plausible scumteams? My first instinct coming into Today was to doubt my biggest reads, though Tammy/Elmo is necessarily my most likely pair now, especially after your claim.

If their claim reads town to you, and you've had nexus as a town read all game, and from your perspective it's me/Elmo, then why are you concerned about their town read on nexus?

Because questions are healthy. I can find their claim highly plausible and still want to check up on anything that looks weird.

[ChannelDelibird]

I still think it's CDB, partly due to PoE and partly because for a while Nexus has done pretty much the opposite of his stated reason for the town read but he hasn't even questioned it. I'm not sure exactly what it means but there's something unnatural about it.

I've addressed the fact that Nexus tends to tail off. Nothing about his play in this game deviates from what I'd expect of him as town.

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: Tammy

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi Bookie!

[ChannelDelibird]

I am not completely 100% ready to say that Ampersand are definitively town but I'm ready to say it about Nexus, and I really don't see a scumgroup not including Tammy. I'm concerned about what happens Tomorrow as, whichever of the two is the buddy, I'm being set up as the final lynch, but those of you who still think it's me/Tammy can at least get half the job done now and we'll figure out changing minds as we go.

[ChannelDelibird]

Will provide examples later. Gonna take a brief look at CDB

Assuming we lynch Tammyscum, you're almost certainly dead Tomorrow. I need you to get past the paranoia and actually seriously read me before the end of the Day.

[ChannelDelibird]

EBWOP: *dead Tonight

[ChannelDelibird]

Assuming we lynch Tammyscum, you're almost certainly dead Tomorrow. I need you to get past the paranoia and actually seriously read me before the end of the Day.

CDB, what makes you say that Nexus would be the kill tonight? Also, why are you only appealing to Nexus here and nobody else?

- Fenchurch

Seems obvious to me. Asssuming Tammyscum dies Today, both you/Elmo thinks I'm the buddy (still thinking as if Elmo's in, but I agree that I've not had as much opportunity to be obviously emotionally readable as I often do so I'm not necessarily expecting a townread from Bookitty), and I still townread Nexus more than you. Scum don't kill you no matter what if they have a reflexive doctor. If Nexus were alive with me tomorrow I wouldn't hesitate to vote the actual scum; without him I'd dither and therefore appear scum waiting for a misvote. Seems fairly obvious from my POV.

I'm appealing to Nexus as he's the one least far down the rabbit hole of scumreading me right now, and he's also the person who knows me the best. It's more out of hope than expectation because his read on me doesn't often rise above the paranoia but, as I day, I expect him to be confirmed town by Tomorrow and if he can figure out that I'm not bullshitting then that's valuable.

[ChannelDelibird]

I don't deny that I've been in and out of this game but, by and large, we all have. May I remind you that lurking is NOT a scumtell for me. Consider the pattern of this game - excitement and activity Day 1, slower and bursts of activity later. You've seen what happens when I post frequently and expect regular interaction in this game, it's that things like my early consciousness of perhaps looking off happen. But when we get to days like this, when the only thing I was really waiting on for a while was Tammy input to see if I was going to second-guess myself, and that doesn't arrive quickly, my urgency is naturally going to decrease.

More later, have to get to work

[ChannelDelibird]

Agreed that Tammy does not seem as much as if she's on a mission in this game as in that; though the stakes here are lower. Her play seems to match that of someone trying to do damage control with a couple of big bursts of posts after replacing into a scum slot with few posts.

[ChannelDelibird]

What part of my readiness to vote isn't super obvious, though? I think Nexus is town by play. I think you're town by role and somewhat by play. That only leaves me with Tammy/Elmo if I'm happy with those reads and, while people are concerned about the possibility of Tammy/me, I'm making them put money where their mouths are. Think it's us? Fine, start with her. That I found Elmo townier than Tammy was a secondary factor but a less relevant one than showing that it's not me/Tammy trying to latch onto a misvote elsewhere.

[ChannelDelibird]

I mean, this game gets a lot easier with two strong townreads. A lot.

[ChannelDelibird]

Whee, I've read stuff since I last posted but been out most of today/yesterday. Reading over some stuff before bed

[ChannelDelibird]

Well, I read stuff. There isn't really anything that makes me feel like I need to respond to it, which is why I was reading without posting before. It feels like we're going to get a Tammy lynch. Good. She'll flip scum.

Tammy accusing Ampersand of giving the game to me because we're friends feels like an appeal to emotion that's more likely to be used on town than scum, actually. So I think it's Tammy-Bookitty, more strongly than I already did

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh yeah i just read page 23 as that's where the posts I hadn't already read began

CDB, I'm pretty sure you also said that Elmo's replace out post seemed pretty town.

Who do you think has looked more town this game out of you and Elmo?

I remembernot replying to this immediately mostly because I thought it was a silly question with no good answer. I've had more obviously town games, I guess, but I don't tend to read Elmo with laser precision on the forums. I think he seemed townish at times, which can be found in my iso because I can't remember what those times were right now. I'm probably more readable but BIAS.

What have you done that you think you wouldn't have done as scum?

- Fenchurch

Prolly woulda claimed a PR as scum

Dunno if I would have agonised so much over the lynch yesterday either

[ChannelDelibird]

Could you state read on me before you hammer please

[ChannelDelibird]

CDB, I'm not sure if it's

as

relevant now, but the other thing I was hoping you'd comment on was the multi-factions thing.

- Fenchurch

Oh, sure. It's silly. I'd eat my hat if there were a second non-town alignment in this game save for maaaaaybe an Underdog.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yes they would.

[ChannelDelibird]

That was a fun read! Anyway, goodnight.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yes they would.

Says scum already tasting his victory.

No, you're just objectively wrong. Fenchurch is always extremely keen on patience and things being done right. It's suggestions like the otherwise that show that you're trying to throw anything that might sound bad at Ampersand because we're the only scum pair that you could now argue, implausible as it is.

[ChannelDelibird]

If you want to wait for Bookitty to post, why the hell have you left Tammy at L-1? Bookitty can literally come in and vote Tammy and then end the game if she [bookitty] is scum.

I don't really see how risking a Bookitty hammer is a good thing?

Fenchurch has indicated that her decision is on who is Tammy's buddy, not on whether or not her vote is in the right place. So there is no risk if they believe that.

[ChannelDelibird]

I mean, if people are actually thinking of buying into what Tammy is selling here, just reread this:

I'm here! Skimming up a bit. I have no reason to doubt Prozac's claim.

Of course he didn't. That's because he's scum and knew that Prozac was town and not lying.

Besides why would he question it when it semi cleared him from a no action standpoint and gave him a clear from the lynch that most likely would have happened/should have happened day two.

This is the formula for every one of Tammy's recent posts. "I have to argue that CDB is scum" leads to "here is something he did that is completely alignment-neutral, IT'S BECAUSE HE'S SCUM".

If anyone's still worried that it might be me and Tammy, this should be the proof against. Bussing is good because you know that you can find things that your buddy has done that are scum-motivated, but Tammy is dredging up things that have no bias towards either possible motivation and trying to paint me as scum for them.

[ChannelDelibird]

I feel like Bookitty is just trying to get me onside for LyLo Tomorrow.

[ChannelDelibird]

Also feel like I ought to point out that the person who was killed on Night 1 thought I was pretty obvtown and intended to dig deeper into Primate on Day 2.

[ChannelDelibird]

Nexus, Tammy and I can't both be town, if you assume that Bookitty would have checked enough before that last post to hammer for what would be a win for Amp-Bookitty. If you think I'm town, Tammy is scum. That should help clear things up a bit.

[ChannelDelibird]

Also FAO Nexus, I still feel that this is important re: your qualms with Ampersand

[ChannelDelibird]

Except it doesn't take into account the fact that they might be scum, obviously.

Yeah but I don't get what the scum motivation is supposed to be. It's a pretty clearly expressed thought process which obviously they would hold as town and, if scum, have no reason not to say the same thing anyway. It seems more like you're just confused by the notion of patience and not unvoting at the same time than it does anything that makes them more likely scum than town.

[ChannelDelibird]

Not sure if I'll be here when the hammer comes so, in case of my death: I'm confident that Bookitty is the partner.

[ChannelDelibird]

uh-oh

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh I knew it was an honest mistake but all good!

Hooray for a scum lynch!

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi Nacho!

VOTE: Nacho

Nexus is town. Feel better soon, Bookitty!

[ChannelDelibird]

I'll look over old Elmo/Bookitty stuff laterif you needme to but I would refer you to Tammy's behaviour Yesterday as disproving me as a buddy for her.

[ChannelDelibird]

The main thing I'm pointing out is that if this slot were actually scum, there is no way in hell CDB would be alive in this lylo. It makes no sense for bookitty to kill ampersand when you had paranoia there and ampersand wasn't townreading you as hard as cdb was.

With both Ampersand and I solidly calling her the buddy, Bookitty's only option to make something different happen was to make a WIFOM kill.

[ChannelDelibird]

Also, Ampersand were by far the most likely to spend two full weeks making extensive posts to figure out the game and prove their alignment, while being incredibly emotionally readable in the process. Whereas my activity has been spottier and Nexus has been plenty paranoid of me. I'm mislynchable, especially when a nightkill on someone he thought was the last scum is likely to make Nexus question his reads.

[ChannelDelibird]

You're right in as much as you could argue multiple options for Bookitty to kill, however you could do just the same with me. By your own logic, scum!CDB should have killed Bookitty for an Ampersand LyLo win. In fact, I probably would have, just to spare her the activity frustrations. But you can argue pretty much any of the options for either of us.

It comes down to play and I think it's pretty obvious that you're the buddy. Remember Tammy's dreadful attempt to sling mud at me when a buddy would have been much better able to paint me in a bad light. Remember Bookitty weakly calling me town when I was getting confident in my (since proven correct) sorting of the game, even when actual town players weren't so convinced of my alignment. That's play that suggests that Bookitty needed to change my mind in LyLo. Remember how the scum slots have both complained about my persistent and insistent townread on Nexus, because it has more or less shut down a potential avenue of mislynch for a long time and focused me just when town reached a perilous position. Remember how hito and Ampersand, both killed on Nights where scum didn't have an obvious power role to remove, townread me and suspected the scum slots.

[ChannelDelibird]

More likely that Bookitty was trying to cover the possibility of needing me to vote Ampersand in LyLo before my townread there solidified. Most importantly, trying to gain my trust by townreading me when town weren't to try to change the direction of Yesterday from two town players homing in on the right answers.

[ChannelDelibird]

I know that Nacho can't do very much until Tuesday, Nexus, but remember that part of the reason why he can only nitpick someone who's trying to unpack decisions made by someone whom I now know to be scum, instead of showing how my being scum influenced my play over this game, is because doing the latter isn't possible.

[ChannelDelibird]

Remember when you brought up this point and I pointed out that Tammy most likely wouldn't have wanted to get you lynched? And then you never responded? I do!

I didn't respond because it only makes sense if you already operate under the theory that I am scum. Of course Tammy wanted to get me lynched; it would have won her the game.

[ChannelDelibird]

Remember how the scum slots have both complained about my persistent and insistent townread on Nexus, because it has more or less shut down a potential avenue of mislynch for a long time and focused me just when town reached a perilous position.

And yet somehow you're still here in LyLo with that person you've had a persistent and insistent townread on. Seems like a situation scum want to avoid, doesn't it?

I'm pretty sure that Bookitty knew she was going to have to 1v1 somebody with a strong townread on the other townie Today. Killing Nexus over Ampersand, for example, doesn't change that. Killing me doesn't even do that, given how Ampersand were feeling. This is really only a factor if both players have a hard townread on each other, and Nexus has been significantly more paranoid and indecisive than Ampersand or I were.

[ChannelDelibird]

I know that Nacho can't do very much until Tuesday, Nexus, but remember that part of the reason why he can only nitpick someone who's trying to unpack decisions made by someone whom I now know to be scum, instead of showing how my being scum influenced my play over this game, is because doing the latter isn't possible.

I really wouldn't say something like this before I even go through your old posts and don't really understand why you did: you know that I'm not going to go through old posts when I'm on a phone and on vacation and instead this just comes across like a weak plea to explain why I'm utterly crushing you right now.

Nexus, this shows that Nacho is posturing rather than actually in tune with what's happening. In the post before this, he climbs down from something that he tried to throw at me, then says he's "utterly crushing" me. Town, having just had to admit that something wasn't the slam-dunk they wanted, gets paranoid that their arguments might be looking bad, rather than double-down on confidence. The only reason why Nacho is saying this is because he's hoping that you'll believe it by osmosis.

[ChannelDelibird]

Addendum to that point: I do think that Nacho is playing this about as well as he could, and it makes me a little worried that you'll make the wrong choice because he's trying to make me say things that might make me look bad, but ultimately I think that you should be able to see through what's happening here.

[ChannelDelibird]

Nexus, if you get an opportunity to engage a bit more with anything that you think is particularly relevant, I'd appreciate it*. It's pretty tiring to go back and forth with somebody who is obliged to reject everything that you say.

*

I'd prefer for you to just get it over with.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yo, Nexus, talk to me in between wincing at no-balls.

[ChannelDelibird]

I mean...I'm still paranoid at your uber town read at me from the start - could you explain it in FULL DETAIL please?

There is no FULL DETAIL, really. I just think your mindset tends to be pretty obvious. Here's where I've explained as best I can in the past. You were invested, particularly in the early game trying to make things happen, but without knowing all the alignments your certainty faded and paranoia increased, all exactly in the pattern that I would expect from you. You have no reason to be paranoid of this because you

know

that townreading you hard and early is

not

a scumtell for me. I did it as town in Red Wedding Mafia, in the 2013 UK Meet Invitational and in Mafiascum Fantasy Camp 2.

If that is the ONLY thing that makes you fear that I might be the scum rather than Nacho, then it is objectively not a good enough reason to change your mind from the start of the Day.

As for your second post, yes, I'm somewhat checked out in as much as I don't really have the energy to keep arguing with somebody who's obliged to reject and twist everything that I say. I'm around if you want to talk over other stuff (although obviously we're both going to be a bit V/LA over the next few days anyway) but I don't really have much more to say to Nacho. I think I've made my point, both Today and Yesterday, as to why he's much more likely to be the buddy than me, and you seemed to be already on board with that as of the start of Today. If you are concerned by something that he's said since then, then say so! Talk to me about it! But I don't really know what else you want on current course.

[ChannelDelibird]

FWIW, yet another reason why this is the LyLo that Bookitty chose:

I mean...I'm still paranoid at your uber town read at me from the start

[ChannelDelibird]

Yaaaay!

Thank you Nacho for a good fight in LyLo - thanks to all the replacements, in fact! And to Patrick for modding!