Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[Dunhallym]

There is one thing i am confused about. What exactly would posting our picks confirm? What would they tell us that would advance the game?

Have you really not given it any thoughts when you signed up for the game?

I've tried to think about when we should reveal, how, etc... In the end, I agree with Tenchii and think we should scumhunt first. For the start of the game, the pairs will only be informative if they allow to rule out someone, which I think is unlikely (I'm not that good with probabilities so I've not done the math here). However we should not wait for day end, so I think that giving the picks around the middle of day 1 would be the best option, as it still leaves time to discuss afterwards.
I also think it's highly unlikely that we will get 16 different picks. As such, ZZZX's system seems quite clever at first look but I fail to see how it will be better once we go in to give our pairs. Althoug I may miss something.
However I think that the order for reveals is important, Which is why scumhunting first can be interesting as the most suspected players can then speak first.

[Dunhallym]

VOTE: Prohawk
I summon thee.

[Dunhallym]

This game setup seems pretty straight forward. Being able to lynch based off of probabilities is best and with a complete matrix of choices makes our odds of hitting scum that much better, not to mention clearing town when we nail scum in a pair. ZZZX, your method seems too convoluted when it doesn't need to be so. Lying doesn't seem to benefit scum from what I can tell, after all the only thing the matrix offers is probability and not absolutes, so there is that...

Scum Team can't be:

ZZZZX and Secret Agent Jin
OR
ArcAngel9 and Tenshii

I'm pretty sure scum wouldn't want the game to be "solved"...

VOTE: Dunhallym

This IS scum-hunting darling! Oh and if I am starting the popcorn. You are next! It's too bad I didn't get you in my picks, however someone else may have.

While I agree that having the full matrix will help us you have failed to show me why it is best to have it now.
I think OTOH that it is better to wait some for reasons already mentioned and because l think leaving scum in the dark for some time is more valuable than the knowledge having all the picks out right now would bring us.

[Dunhallym]

I will elaborate tomorrow when I get on a computer.
But days are long enough that I don't think time is that much of an issue. For the first days I intend to play as a normal mafia game.

[Dunhallym]

I suppose there is no point in me giving reasons why I think it was better to wait a few days.
Anyway, my picks were
Gamma Emerald and Secret Agent Jin

Tenshii and ZZZX

One repeat as well.

I'll have a few questions for some of you but it will have to wait until I get home.

[Dunhallym]

As promised a couple questions

ArcAngel9

You initially didn't comment on Jaack's post about claiming the picks. Then you come back and immediately join in with the crowd by giving your picks without commenting any on the discussion that's been going on before. And then you question what it brings.
If you don't see the worth of it, why did you rush to claim? Have you not given it any thoughts when you signed up for the game?

@Gamma

I don’t mind that much that you acknowledged good arguments on both sides as I’ve been going back and forth on what was the best strategy. What I don’t like is the impression that you didn’t try to come up with your own arguments, and agree with Prohawk that it looks like sheeping. And I dislike even more the way you jumped in right after SAJ had. You seemed to be weighing things up to this point, why did you then rush? Can you elaborate on what makes you think Prohawk is scummy?

@ZZZX:

only disadvantage of claiming (or advantage depending on how things are) would be making scum kills controlled. advantage is that they are wel... controlled.
disadvantage is that it disallows us from using hte claims system since the scum can get late game with barely any cleared pairs

I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying. Can you enlighten me?

@everyone

I've never played with any of you so my picks were "chosen" randomly. Did some of you really chose teams based on other factors and if yes what motivated your choices. No need to answer if you used random.

[Dunhallym]

One team was peopke I knew
One was people I didn't know

And for my other questions?

[Dunhallym]

Didn't you choose Scumteam Unpick. You got into the game without understanding rules? Are you serious ?

[Dunhallym]

That was directed to Arc.
More seriously can you answer my questions.
I'll address the rest when I have time.

[Dunhallym]

@ProHawk

I forgot the question I had for you yesterday night.
You said you suspected me because I wanted to postpone the claims. Yet you didn't say anything about Tenshii who gave the same thought. Why?

[Dunhallym]

@Jin
Since you've played with Arc before what do you think of her confusion?

[Dunhallym]

(Oh cool accident page top for good info)

As for analysis of our chart, I don't see any lynch that's just too valuable to pass up as nothing outright confirms town. It is cool that we only had three repeated picks, but the distribution is even enough that I don't see an easy path to a win, but just to check...

We need to catch at least one scum in the first three lynches.

If we were to use those three lynches on Dunhallym, Jin, and ArcAngel, that would cover all possible scumteams except Jaack/ZZZX, ProHawk/Tenshii, and Gamma/Tenshii. That's pretty good odds of getting, but just lynching one scum among them isn't going to win. If we were to rigidly lynch from those three ignoring flips altogether, town would win By D3 20% of the time, lose 20% of the time, and go to 3p lylo 60% of the time. Of course we probably wouldn't be rigid (if one of the first two we lynch flips scum our chances would be significantly better) but the odds aren't super in our favor.

I do think it's in our best interest to lynch the scummiest from {Dunhallym, Jin, ArcAngel} D1 and re-evaluate after a flip. I don't think we have enough info right now to force a win.

I don't really have a strong feeling on any of them yet so I don't have a preference at this time, but I will be focusing on those three players D1.

I'll try and clean up the chart to make it more small-screen friendly.

This is precisely the reason why I wanted discussion before naming the picks. Not because I'm in the most likely pool, as I had no way to know how it would go, but because I think that having a plan from the start of day 1 is bad for town, unless it's tightproof. As it is your analysis is correct but it also somewhat kills discussion. Discussion that is crucial to catch scum. And, assuming that one of Jin/Arc is scum (and they are not partners), I think it makes it easier for their partner to cover their tracks. Not to mention that from my POV, there is a 30% chance that neither is scum, and by following the plan (TM) we are giving them a free pass. Because one thing you forgot in your analysis is that each of us has additional information that allows to eliminate some scum teams.

My vision of the game is somewhat different from yours. I don't see it as playing by numbers, I see it as playing a regular mafia game where the additional information we have replaces PR we don't have and can help make choice, but doesn't drive the game.
So even if we end up following your plan in the end (and be assured I'll fight teeth and claws if you try to get me lynched) we need to play a game, which we have not yet started to do. Or at least which most players here have not started to do.

[Dunhallym]

@Jin
Since you've played with Arc before what do you think of her confusion?

That was directed to Arc.
More seriously can you answer my questions.
I'll address the rest when I have time.

Are you serious? How am I suppose to know if Jin was being sarcastic or serious. I hope you know that when it comes to reading, people interpret differently? And I genuinely thought Jin didn't know about the rules.

And for this you think Jin & I are scum? this looks like you're building a case over nothing.

You still do not answer my questions/ see here.
Your reaction is interesting. Can you point me where I've built a case on you and Jin being evil based on your early interaction? Would love to see it.
I simply redirected at you your own comment to Jin because from your questions it seems like you are the one who signed up for this game without thinking about its rules.
Now, I don't like the way you throw a half assed accusation my way but don't follow up on it with a vote so VOTE: Arcangel

You want discussion? Okay. Who or what do you want to talk about?

I think I'm going to start here:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Secret Agent Jin

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

@Dunhallym - I'm not really interested in getting into a more theory oriented discussion at this point (I agree that there are a lot of players not doing much) but I will respond to a few things.

First, I did not forget about how each of us knows we're clear. It's just not a fact that's particularly useful to discussion, particularly at this point, where no one's knowledge of their townness clears anyone else. Like I know personally that there is at least one scum among {Tenshii, Dunhallym, ArcAngel, Jin} but that's too vague to be useful even to me, let alone the other players.

And secondly, I am not fully committed to any plan beyond D1. There's no way to force a win with our allotted amount mislynches yet, but I do think that focusing our efforts on the most likely scum players is a productive use of time D1. D1 scum lynch rates are not significantly different from random selection and limiting the pool to those most likely to be scum based on game mechanics seems like a good idea to me.

Fine. I can see your POV and I agree that a theory discussion wouldn't bring much at this point.
As for discussion, I've tried to stimulate it some with my questions: apart from that I don't have a precise idea yet. I liked the way Prohawk engaged me early on, but I would like to see more from him. I don't like that Tenshii was also of the mind to scumhunt first but has not done much thus far. There are also things I dislike about Jin (I feel that he changed tone between the start of the game and now), Arcangel (see above) and Gamma (but his only possible partner from my POV is Tenshii). ZZZX and you have gained town points at the moment.
And on this, bed time for me.

[Dunhallym]

I probably won't have time for much today.
@ZZZX
Hint:of you read my previous posts you will know how I feel about your idea.

@Jin
what you said on Jack was more than a null read. See bold below.

I need Jaack to be in all my games from now on. Anyways, say those three people (myself included) are lynched, that leaves three groups which have your name in one of them.

IF you are scum then you are doing a good job of playing it out in public but i am convinced that you arent and that to me leaves only two groups.

Also, from my PoV it is easy to check off my name across the board which A) Still leaves the same amount of possibilities but i dont die and B) Saves a day lynch which we can use on someone else. I understand that it isn't going to happen as it doesnt help anything if my alignment is assumed and not public knowledge but it stops a mislynch. As far as i know there could be a scum within the other two proposed lynches but if i am lynched first then we start off with a mislynch D1.

IF you are scum then you are doing a good job of playing it out in public but i am convinced that you arent and that to me leaves only two groups.

Why?

Why am i convinced he is town?

I am basing that off of myself. If i was scum i wouldnt put myself out in public by making a chart and actively calculating the possible scumteams, i would let someone else make the chart and put themselves out there.

If he is scum then he is doing an oscar worthy portrayal of a town member.

[Dunhallym]

I know we still have plenty of time in the day but at the moment I feel that the only players in this game are Jaack, SAJ and me with the others picking their nose here and there.
So

to all of you

:
What do you think of Jaack’s plan and why? What are your views on the exchanges between Jaack and SAJ and between Arc and me?

@Arc

: once again I ask you: you are not a newb, and your initial comment to Jin suggested you had signed for this game with understanding of its specific mechanics. Yet you expressed confusion at the chart. Had you not thought of what the specific game design implied? Are you still confused and about what?

@Jin

: I agree with Jaack. His initial point was weak but you have to start somewhere. Your reaction was not that good but most of all I’m not buying your answer to me about your reversal on Jaack. What you expressed was a strong town read, not a weak town lean.

@Jaack

: what do you think of Arc? I’d also like your opinion on ZZZX.

@Prohawk

: see above question about Tenshii.

@ZZZX

: I previously awarded you town points but on the reread you don’t deserve them. You mentioned earlier that you had a plan but wanted to wait for the last pairs of unpick. What was this plan? You now say that we should scumhunt and use the chart as last resort yet you have not moved from your RVS vote and just made a quick non comital post that could pass as a half-assed justification to leave your vote on Jaack.

No further comment for Gamma or Tenshii yet, just the common questions and I’d like to hear more from you.

[Dunhallym]

More later but quickly for now

Hm.
Looking at the chart more ArcAngel is among the most likely scum, and has 2 repeated picks.
Interesting.

That's right but to be fair she had only one repeated pick when she posted hers. The second comes from me and I gave mine later.

@Tenshii I am curious about your other reads on players, you seem to word your reads well and i like the outlook you have when approaching reads.

It would be nice to see more activity from people, i think after the chart was made the conversations for most fizzled out. What are people thinking concerning the three players that Jaack said would be a good starting place.

@ProHawk That wasnt emotional or fear-mongering, that post was me stating that i WOULD flip town and it would be a wasted day phase. Its facts, nothing emotional about it. If Jaack flipped scum later, i would be upset. Wouldnt any town be upset at the fact that they had a scumread on scum and they got lynched instead of the scum?

Jin, do you really scumread Jaack ? If yes then why did you unvote him? Can you give a list of your reads from scum to town ?
Actually that could be a good thing for everyone.

[Dunhallym]

How does voting Jaack prevent you from looking at others? I could get it if he was at l-1 but is not the case so why remove vote if you still suspect him and have no better place to put it?
Also can you explain to me your town lean on ZZZX ?

[Dunhallym]

ArcAngel needs to post.

I didn't answer gamma 's question about ProHawk.
I generally agree with what he says. I also liked the aggressive way he started the game so town lean.

@Jin
Please tell me how you intend to catch scum or what you consider as AI.

[Dunhallym]

OK, so I have a lot to say/ask. Not sure how much I'll actually manage to get done as baby has been crying all day and it's already late. For the record, while we still have 6 days left, it's not that much for me especially as I have family visiting at the end of the week, meaning I'll be mostly V/LA from Thursday evening to Sunday night.
But let's start with the quick and easy parts:

@ZZZX

i have a plan in mind but we will need the last person to claim first now i think

I’ve already asked but didn’t see an answer. What was your plan?

For proHawk read I dont really have one. His posts have been "emotional" but still devoid of any real drive. Don't see any intentionals behind them yet.

What do you mean about prohawk’s posts being emotional?

[Dunhallym]

@ Gamma

I think Jaack/SAJ looks SvT or SvS (not looking at chart for this so I may be off)
Idrk about Arc and Dunhal but the think you're pushing isn't really AI

Interesting view. Can you elaborate on that? Your vote was initially on Jaack, so I guess if SvT, then you have Jaack as scum. What makes you think of potential SvS (it is possible BTW)?

[Dunhallym]

Hopefully now we can get some opinions from Arc.

@ Tenshii

I have a thought but first:

Can everyone please give a read on ProHawk?

Like slight town. I think the way he replied to my accusations on him implied confidence in the idea he's town

ONe question I dont get @tenshii and @jack. Why are you just so focused on his RVS vote? Am I missing something or wat.

His wagon was because of an RVS vote.

VOTE: ArcAngel9

Your vote partly answers questions I had for you. But I'd still like to point out some things:

I would've loved to see the Jaack vs Jin argument develop out more but I'll just put my thoughts into it since Dunhall is asking.

I think Jin doesn't see the value of RVS very much considering that he didn't participate in it. He even went to the extent of self voting. So I can see how Jin could interpret Jaack's vote on Jin as a shitty serious vote and return it with an OMGUS.

You want discussion? Okay. Who or what do you want to talk about?

I think I'm going to start here:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Secret Agent Jin

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

You are aware that A) My RVS vote was on myself and still is and B) I didnt walk anything back and i wasnt called out on anything. Jaacks whole post is weirdly defensive, or just plain weird.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Jaack

Also I'm not sure if it's because Jin keeps saying "I'm town" so much but I like the way Jin is speaking in his posts.

As far as Jaack goes, I can understand his mindset towards RVS. RVS is a tool to start discussion aka scumhunting. So Jaack's mindset is "Not participating in RVS is therefore scummy". Except it generally isn't. There are town who choose to not participate in RVS. Just like how there are town who are shitposty, or trolly, whatever. But if we go under the logic that Jaack basically just made an RVS vote then the vote is more than fine. Although I don't townread Jaack, I just think what he's done is pretty standard and NAI.

I'll come back to what I think of the Jin issue later on but a few comments:
1) the case on him started with RVS thing but is certainly not limited to it.
2) repeating over and over that you're town doesn't make it so. So I don't really understand the underlined part.
3) you earlier voted fro Jin because of what you interpreted as a "slip". Have you changed your mind on that?

[Dunhallym]

OK, so Jin. I'll make the short version now. If you want a full case with quotes and the like I won't have time tonight and to be honest I can't guarantee that I'll have time to do it before day end.
Basically my problem with Jin can boil down to two points.
1) His reaction to Jaack’s vote, and in particular the fact he denied his initial townread on Jaack.
2) His reaction to Jaack’s plan and lack of subsequent scumhunting. His initial reaction to Jaack’s plan is not clear. The comment on Jaack’s innocence and the rest of post 80 makes it look like he found the plan good, but he never really said so either. He later complains that Jaack is voting solely because of statistics, which I think is false. I’m not a fan of Jaack’s plan, and I’ve expressed why earlier on. But I also think that the best way to show you’re town is to find the real scum. And I think that so far Jin has done nothing to that purpose.
Now, Jin has made a couple posts that I really dislike. Prohawk already mentioned his AtE. I fully agree with that and I hate the vote removal from Jaack in the same post. If he really thinks Jaack is scum then why remove vote?
Last thing: if you look at Jin’s scum/town list: his scumleans are people who are voting for him. His townleans are people whoe are defending him. His nulls are the rest. If he was a newb, I'd think that he may be biased as I have made the same mistake of trusting people who defended me and distrusting people who accused me but here it makes me seriously doubt the reality of those reads.

To sum up my thoughts: I originally disliked Jaack's plan but Jin and Arc are my main suspects at the moment, with ZZZX as a runnerup.

[Dunhallym]

OK, so Jin. I'll make the short version now. If you want a full case with quotes and the like I won't have time tonight and to be honest I can't guarantee that I'll have time to do it before day end.
Basically my problem with Jin can boil down to two points.
1) His reaction to Jaack’s vote, and in particular the fact he denied his initial townread on Jaack.
2) His reaction to Jaack’s plan and lack of subsequent scumhunting. His initial reaction to Jaack’s plan is not clear. The comment on Jaack’s innocence and the rest of post 80 makes it look like he found the plan good, but he never really said so either. He later complains that Jaack is voting solely because of statistics, which I think is false. I’m not a fan of Jaack’s plan, and I’ve expressed why earlier on. But I also think that the best way to show you’re town is to find the real scum. And I think that so far Jin has done nothing to that purpose.
Now, Jin has made a couple posts that I really dislike. Prohawk already mentioned his AtE. I fully agree with that and I hate the vote removal from Jaack in the same post. If he really thinks Jaack is scum then why remove vote?
Last thing: if you look at Jin’s scum/town list: his scumleans are people who are voting for him. His townleans are people whoe are defending him. His nulls are the rest. If he was a newb, I'd think that he may be biased as I have made the same mistake of trusting people who defended me and distrusting people who accused me but here it makes me seriously doubt the reality of those reads.

To sum up my thoughts: I originally disliked Jaack's plan but Jin and Arc are my main suspects at the moment, with ZZZX as a runnerup.

1) I never townread Jaack, everybody thinks i did but all i said was that i didnt scumread him. That can be anywhere from a Null read to a Town read. After some posts by him my viewpoint changed and i began to read him as a scumlean.

That's what you said (underlined is mine):

IF you are scum then you are doing a good job of playing it out in public but i am convinced that you arent and that to me leaves only two groups.

Why?

Why am i convinced he is town?

I am basing that off of myself. If i was scum i wouldnt put myself out in public by making a chart and actively calculating the possible scumteams, i would let someone else make the chart and put themselves out there. If he is scum then he is doing an oscar worthy portrayal of a town member.

I don't have mind reading skills (shocking i know) so if you say A (I am convinced he's town) on the thread I'm going from the assumption that you think A. If what you meant is B (I have a null read on him) then don't question my reading skills but evaluate what you said.
I've already questioned you on the subject and here is what you answered me:

Right but i worded it that way because i dont think something would ask me why i think he is a null read.

Again, if someone is convinced i am scummy or a good enough place to put a vote then i will say that they are welcome to but it would be both a mislynch and a horrible choice. I have come to understand that i, in some ways, come off as scummy since i deal with a high volume of attention. All i can say for now is that either town or scum i tend to play this game a bit slimy/scummy. I havent done anything that is AI of scum and you certainly wont find any scumslips since i have to be scum to slip in that direction.

Again underlined is mine. I'm not sure I get what you say here because what I understand is that since Tenshii asked you about your read on Jaack you said you townread it because he wouldn't be interested in a null read?
No matter how I look at it it remains that you've lied, either on your initial read or in saying later that it was a null read.

2) You are entitled to your own opinions but, like i have explained before, the AtE was not an AtE and you will know if i ever post an AtE because it wont just be "im town, you are mislynching". That is a preemptive warning that you are wasting time on me. I also explained my vote removal on Jaack. I noticed the signs of myself getting ready to spend all D1 tunneling on Jaack and i stopped it so that i could resume the game normally.
Last Thing: I townread the people defending me because if i am town and someone defends me that tells me they arent scum. If there is a scum player and a townie is getting looked at as scum doesn't it make sense to let the townie get heat and become the lynchee instead of defending them? A scum player would just let a townie get the flak and stay neutral on the subject, Defending them is stupid. What are you saying concerning my townreads? That if my role was scum that my townreads are scum too? Are you saying that i am townreading people that defend me so they will give me town points? Do you think i am that stupid? If i was scum i would treat them normally. I would call my scum partners out on their BS and question them as i do others. I wouldnt buss ny partners or townread them for no reason.

You don't anser at all my second point. My second point is that you initially didn't give a real opinion on Jaack's plan: your first response suggests that you find it's a good plan but on the reread it's really ambiguous. But later on you complain about Jaack's choice of lynching you based on statistics. And then you didn't make any scumhunting effort. If you agreed with the plan, then it made sense to try and push me and/or Arc, which you have absolutely not done. And if you disagreed then you still had to push. Now, "preemptive warning that you are wasting time on me": seriously! Can scum please come forward and say they're scum, this will avoid us wasting our time looking for them. Thank you!
As for the last part: defending you is not necessarily stupid for scum. IF you are town and get lynched they look good for not hopping on your wagon. If you're town, then that list is awfully naive. If you're scum, its great advantage is that it doesn't give us any information to find your partner. I don't think you are that naive which is why I consider this list as an additional point to you being scum.
You want to convince me I'm wrong? then stop saying you're town and do something to prove it.

Now, my vote is still on Arcangel and will remain so until she gives us some input. Because the second point I made on you is also true of her AND she's disappeared under the radar.

[Dunhallym]

I have a thought but first:

Can everyone please give a read on ProHawk?

Like slight town. I think the way he replied to my accusations on him implied confidence in the idea he's town

ONe question I dont get @tenshii and @jack. Why are you just so focused on his RVS vote? Am I missing something or wat.

His wagon was because of an RVS vote.

VOTE: ArcAngel9

This doesn't make sense. Can you explain me once again.

Could you please grace us with your thoughts on the game?

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart
Your comments on Tenshii read matches some thoughts I had. I need to reread him.
Regarding Jin, the reason I pushed his reversal is because to me it made his initial read on Jaack look fake. I'm to tired to explain tonight but I'll try to do it tomorrow if required.

[Dunhallym]

OK so first UNVOTE: . I like SSmart much more than I did Arc and I need to carefully read all that has been said for reevaluation.

Regarding Prohawk's question on my read on ZZZX I already gave some reasons in previous posts (that is before the one you quoted). I've not reevaluated since based on answers i got from ZZZX so I need to do that. But it mostly stems from the fact that:
- ZZZX made the chart, which prompted people to reveal their picks, yet he gave his picks only later on
- ZZZX claimed to have a plan but never gave it. i asked him about it and he answered but on my first read i didn't understand at all what he meant so I need to reread that
- instead of giving said plan, ZZZX said "OK, let's scumhunt first and use the chart only later", which is what I had been saying just before; yet he proposed it as if it were a new idea and then disappeared and has not done much in the way of scumhunting.

If it still doesn't make sense: imagine that I gave 100 people each a 100-sided die and told them all to roll it. Then I asked them all what they got, except that one person was secretly told to lie. Suppose now that exactly one person claims to have rolled a 100. According to your logic, the chance of them actually rolling a 100 is only 1/100, so therefore there's a 99% chance that they're lying. Which is obviously not true.

Let me FTFY:
Without any other information from the above example, the chance of them actually having rolled the 100 they claim to have rolled is 99%, because 99 out of the 100 people that rolled the 100-sided die will tell the truth about what they rolled. Stop trying to wave this away, your location is making me think you're giving people bad math on purpose but I want to read Dunhallym first because they have more motivation to make their claim fake in the way that it was claimed

because

it makes someone else look more suspicious than them. Like I'm not sure if you're not following me or if you're intentionally twisting what I'm saying so please don't anymore. I'll show my process if you don't believe the numbers I arrived at.

I'll assume the probabilities you give are right but I fail to see how my claim could throw additional shade on Arc. Arc had no way of knowing what I would claim unless we are scumbuddies in which case I would certainly not want to throw shade on her. So she ended up in an unlikely situation but I fail to see how the fact she ended in that situation makes it more likely that she lied about her picks. Admittedly I've read your posts real fast and I need a more careful read but there is also a factor that you're not taking into account: not all of the picks were random.

I'll second prohawk's demand for a small extension. Having two players replaced now sucks, especially given the situation they replace in.

[Dunhallym]

I think I'm actually the one that pushed Arc the most. Which is why I'm somewhat surprised by your conclusion. Others that were voting Arc are Tenshii (cannot be my partner) and Gamma.
Now let's forget about maths for some time. As you said you're going to reread the thread, I'd like you to give your opinion on people independantly of any probability they have of being scum, like SSmart did.

[Dunhallym]

@ZZZX

Also @Dun I had a few things in mind but they werent valid anymore as I didnt get the picks I wanted as I told you. However I STILL have a mini plan but its not the time to reveal it yet. A Gambiteer reveals his cards when the time is right.

I've reread what you answered about your plan. From what I understand (but I'm not sure I understand correctly) you hoped that Tenshii's pick would give us a conftown? That's not really a "plan" then as it's not something you could control ?

@ssbm

The reason I asked you to give reads that were not related to probabilities is that it's much more difficult for scum to feign subjective reads than it is to discuss objective things like probabilities. I suspected Jin. And nearly all you had posted since replacing him was probabilities.
Now, I understand why having repeated picks can make me and Arc/SSmart (sorry I just can't call him SS, feels so wrong) look bad. But I still don't get how my claim could make Arc look even worse. This reasoning seems terribly convoluted; and a probability of 22% isn't that unlikely. I'll trust you on that one as it's too complicated for me.
Then let's take a look at the reasoning that led to your vote on me:
you go from the basis that we have to lynch in the pool of [me, you, SSmart] (Jaack's plan) as there is a great probability than at least one of us is scum. I don't entirely agree with that: if I had a strong townread on both of you I'd argue against it. But that's not the point. So you start by looking at me and conclude (quote is cropped so it doesn't get too long and underlined is mine):

I was expecting to see more of an aggressive push from dunhallym onto SS if their claim was fake and intended to cast suspicion on him.

Dunhallym still looks town after a reread

so if she was trying to frame him it's working for me so far. Optimal play is to lynch 2 of the 3 of us (me, SS, Dunhallym). My PoE leads me to this conclusion

VOTE: SomethingSmart

As mentioned above I was a bit surprised by your conclusion because I've been voting Arc for most of the day so you could consider that I pushed for her, even though I never did for the reasons you gave.

Now, let's look at the post where you change your mind and vote for me:

Alright I reread and took my notes. AA slot was definitely just confused about the setup I think probably because of words like "unpick" which may not make sense to someone who speaks English as a second language.

The only reason anyone should be voting them at this point is the probability business

that I was on about along with the Jaack plan of lynching the 3 of us to eliminate almost every scum team.

Arc has barely participated in the game. But what you say here amounts to a null read. You don't mention things that were raised against Arc (i-e the way she reacted to a "case" that never existed) nor do you mention things in favor of the slot like SSmart's post since he had replaced.
Then you on at length about ProHawk and try to link him to me:

What I said about Prohawk when I first came in is wrong in retrospect. If we were popcorning it would make a lot of sense for scum to start the chain and immediately call to their partner. They could both claim for free without having to worry about looking scummy for duping anything.

That makes sense. But you don't mention that I refused to go along with the plan and argued with ProHawk about it.

I think the way PH attacked Jin up until 172 was very unfair and if you look at the way Jin was talking up to that point you'll see that he did admit that he voted purely in reaction to Jaack's vote. I think PH doesn't have any kind of valid reason to vote Jin up until they present their 143, which was contrived. Still nothing solid here and Jin is showing signs of being ready to look for scum, he is just too focused on defending himself under the pressure PH is exerting.

I've only skimmed through your big post and I'm too tired to look at your arguments in details tonight but I know it didn't originally showk me and I was in agreement with most of what ProHawk posted.

If anyone were to pick up on ProHawk's 146 and get town rallied behind the idea it would be a lot of towncred to cash in when Dunhallym flipped scum, if they are partnered as I suspect. This isn't even the first time they brought it up (121). 120 looks like it could be distancing between them.

Assuming that we are indeed partners, how would it give towncred when I flipped scum? All he says is that if Gamma flips scum it's me or Tenshii, but if we are both scum then Gamma would flip town so... I don't get it

This is more of a me thing, but the way Dunhallym says "to be fair" in 163 looks scummy to me. It looks like a justification for why AA has 2 doubled unpicks but in actuality it could be a justification as for why Dunhallym's unpick was a duplicate.

Again I don't get the point: how does it justify anything on my pick?

I'm more suspicious of ProHawk than Dunhallym, for the record, but it does not make sense to me to lynch outside of [Something_Smart, Dunhallym] today and it should not make sense to town to lynch outside of [ssbm_Kyouko, Something_Smart, Dunhallym] today.

VOTE: Dunhallym

So in summary: you said earlier that you had a townread on me. Your initial comment on AA suggests that it's a null read. And you then go to vote me without really bringing arguments agaisnt me but using "connections" with a possibly scumProHawk.

I won't vote for you just now because I think that it would put you at l-1 and would want to see a vote count first but my heart is here.

And on this I'm off to bed.

I also need to say that as mentioned earlier I have family popping up tomorrow night so I won't be very active from now on and until sunday evening.

[Dunhallym]

Okay ssbm I'm finally starting to get what you're saying. I still think you're putting way too much stock in the probabilities, especially given that the benefit scum get from repeating picks is fairly small.
However, you arguing to lynch in a small pool that includes you would be a risky strategy as scum.

And ZZZX I played in Maths which you modded but I don't think I've ever played with you.

Just want to clarify that I agree with Jaack's pool of optimal lynches from 78: [Dunhallym, Something_Smart, ssbm_Kyouko] because we have the most possible scumteams which means that us dying eliminates the most possible scumteams.
However the pool I came up with of [Gamma, Something_Smart, Dunhallym] is because there is that 77.32% chance that one of you 3 has false picks.
Two players conveniently overlap both pools. Gamma has the least motivation to lie when he did of my pool as I concluded in my 249. Dunhallym has a lot to gain from claiming in the way she did if she's scum, and looks to be teamtelling with PH, who I have a non-mathematical reason to SR. This all points me to Dunhallym for today. I also think Tenshii is town so far so if Dunhallym dies and flips town I would be able to softly clear Gamma by extension for the day, leaving just Something_Smart as the player who lied, if any of you 3 did, and the chance of that being the case is 77.32%. If both of you are town I can still be lynched D3 and we are still following Jaack's plan.

I think this makes a lot of sense if we follow the guidance of

The Matrix™

If you cite Jaack correctly, he never said that we should lynch only from us 3, but that on day 1 he would select from this pool. If the lynchee flips scum then it's obvious, but even if the lynchee is town there will be something to be drawn from the lynch.

[Dunhallym]

From a completely neutral PoV odds that none of us are scum is 20% (3/15 possible teams).
From my PoV odds that neither of you are guilty is 30% (3/10).

Gamma my issue with SS had nothing to do with Shadow Step and everything with Schutzstaffel.

[Dunhallym]

Ssbm_Kyouko
I'm reading your ProHawk case as well as rereading the relevant part of the thread but from my understanding this

I could give you a play-by-play, but basically boils down to a lot of simple drive-by-posts mostly piggy-backing on other peoples ideas.

Was not about Jin but about gamma. ProHawk asked Tenshii about his gamma read. Tenshii answered town and asked why ProHawk was scumreading gamma and this was ProHawk answer.

[Dunhallym]

I'll try to find time later to finish the read. Right now I hav a question:
Prohawk, what are your thoughts on Tenshii?

[Dunhallym]

I don't have time to expand but the speed at which ssbm changes his plan from we have to lynch between ssmart and d'un to let's trust each other and lynch Tenshii whom he said was likely town in a previous post does nothing to convince me of his innocence. I think he's trying a desperate gambit.

[Dunhallym]

I don't have time to expand but the speed at which ssbm changes his plan from we have to lynch between ssmart and d'un to let's trust each other and lynch Tenshii whom he said was likely town in a previous post does nothing to convince me of his innocence. I think he's trying a desperate gambit.

Why aren't you voting me if you think I'm scum?

VOTE: Dunhallym

????
I was talking about ssbm.
But you are correct that I should vote.
VOTE: ssbm
That's l-1

[Dunhallym]

I won't be able to post detailed thoughts before tomorrow evening but here is where I stand.

From my PoV things look pretty straightforward. There are 6 possible teams, 3 of which contain Ssmart .
Atm I town read Jaack and ProHawk. Leaves me with ZZZX /SSmart or gamma/Tenshii.
So taking both into account gives SSmart as today's best lynch.
This being said day 2 is time to reevaluate. So I plan on having a look back at both ProHawk and Jaack. I partially did ProHawk yesterday.

SSmart a question for you : why do you think the post you quoted is bad? Tenshii misinterpreted it so I guess it wasn't very clear.

[Dunhallym]

Sorry I had a busier day than expected. I probably won't have time to do much before Tuesday evening.

[Dunhallym]

@Tenshii
Ssmart talked about me in 322. Il answer his points when I am on computer Tuesday most likely.
As for my town read on Jaack its mainly from the start of the game but I plan on a reread because there are a few things that start to bother me lately but again it will have to wait some.

[Dunhallym]

@Jaack
What are your thoughts on SSmart ?

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart

It's just a really shallow point being used to justify a mildly opportunistic read. Like, yes, he changed his mind abruptly. Yes, it might have been desperate. But he wasn't in so much danger that his lynch was nearly inevitable and as scum he definitely would have realized that doing a 180 with his reads and pushing a completely new person would not have been a good way to avoid being lynched. (Scum try to avoid being conspicuous, so a better plan as scum would have been to take his strongest scumread and start pushing it really hard.) In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out" whereas a scum thought process would be "How can I make this flailing townie look bad?"

There are 3 points I’d like to answer:
1) “It's just a really shallow point being used to justify a mildly opportunistic read. “
2) “he wasn't in so much danger that his lynch was nearly inevitable”
3) “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out" whereas a scum thought process would be "How can I make this flailing townie look bad?"

1) I had expressed suspicions on Jin/ssbm for a long time already and had stated in a previous post my intent to vote him, so no that was not a justification, I was simply stating that ssbm’s post hadn’t changed my mind. I won’t go back to my reasons to suspect him, reading my posts should be enough.
2) When ssbm made his post and the Tenshii vote he was at l-2. I had made it clear that I meant to vote him, and Gamma also had said that Jin was the best lynch. There was no real alternative up there was no real case against Arc, and my wagon never really took up. Besides, I thought there was a connection between you and ssbm. I never said so in the thread because I didn’t have the time to make the case and thought it was pretty pointless anyway before we had a scum flip.
3) You are correct that I probably didn’t give it enough thoughts. Truth is that my suspicion level had reached the point where I was tunneling in spite of my efforts to keep an open mind. But for the second part, why would scum me need to “make this flailing townie look bad”? First, he already looked bad, and I don’t see how my post made him look worse. Second, scum me would have known that he would turn town so why stick my neck out and risk to look bad when I could just have sat back? Especially since lynching Tenshii would actually have been even better for scum me than lynching ssbm (it left the original pool of 3 and Tenshii can’t be my partner).

Some questions for you:
- Since “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out”: what did you think ssbm was trying to achieve?
- You said Tenshii was your main suspect in your first catch up post(#210) but only voted for him in #311. Why did you wait that long before casting a vote?
- You said in your catch up that “I feel like there is exactly one scum in ProHawk/Jin.” What are your actual thoughts on Prohawk.

I'm currently making readings. I'm really tired this week so I will try to do a bit every night and then give full thoughts this week-end.
Gamma and ZZZX really need to contribute.

[Dunhallym]

It looks like ssbm is advocating a me/Dunhallym/Jaack townblock.

If we're going to do a townblock, the one I'd be most comfortable with right now is me/Gamma/Jaack. (Although I'm a bit less confident on Gamma, but I'll reread his posts and come to a definite conclusion before agreeing to this.) If we do agree to this townblock, then we have an automatic win by lynching Dunhallym. If Dunhallym is town, then ZZZX is cleared, and if Dunhallym is scum, then Tenshii is cleared, and either way we have 3 lynches and a suspect pool of 3.

If people don't agree to this, then we should lynch Tenshii, because I'm pretty sure Tenshii is scum (and I can make a case if necessary) and Tenshii flipping scum is auto win as well.

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

Right now I'm actually more confident in ssbm being town than in Dunhallym being town. I don't know if I'm confident enough in either one of them for ssbm's plan to work, but that doesn't matter yet because Tenshii is just scum.
VOTE: Tenshii

[Dunhallym]

Sorry wrong manipulation I didn't mean to post
@mod can you please edit those two posts?

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart

1) I had expressed suspicions on Jin/ssbm for a long time already and had stated in a previous post my intent to vote him, so no that was not a justification, I was simply stating that ssbm’s post hadn’t changed my mind. I won’t go back to my reasons to suspect him, reading my posts should be enough.

It wasn't necessary to post that if your whole point was that it didn't change your mind. You did, at the very least, use that post as an additional reason to suspect him, and a shallow reason at that.

Take a broader look. I had made a rather long post in which I expressed my intent to vote ssbm. Then I made a quick one asking Prohawk his thoughts on Tenshii. This could be seen as me expressing that I was considering switching to Tenshii. I actually thought that it was what had prompted ssbm to switch to Tenshii, because several people had expressed suspicions on Tenshii who looked lynchable. So I made this post to clarify what my position was.

2) When ssbm made his post and the Tenshii vote he was at l-2. I had made it clear that I meant to vote him, and Gamma also had said that Jin was the best lynch. There was no real alternative up there was no real case against Arc, and my wagon never really took up. Besides, I thought there was a connection between you and ssbm. I never said so in the thread because I didn’t have the time to make the case and thought it was pretty pointless anyway before we had a scum flip.

It was definitely looking likely that he would be lynched, but that doesn't mean that he had no shot at changing the lynch onto someone else. Your point was predicated on his action being something that scum would do as a desperate bid to avoid being lynched, which I suppose I understand how someone could think that but to me it seems like the exact opposite of what desperate scum would do.

You forget that there were two things in ssbm’s post: the push on Tenshii but most of all the whole “I see that my lynch is the best for town I’ll self-vote but let me make my big post beforehand…”. That’s what I called the “desperate gambit”.

3) You are correct that I probably didn’t give it enough thoughts. Truth is that my suspicion level had reached the point where I was tunneling in spite of my efforts to keep an open mind. But for the second part, why would scum me need to “make this flailing townie look bad”?

The most obvious reason that comes to mind is to make sure that your mislynch doesn't slip through your fingers. If you could drive home the idea of his reaction test being scum just completely losing it, then that would be the last nail in his coffin and it would likely destroy his credibility.

First, he already looked bad, and I don’t see how my post made him look worse. Second, scum me would have known that he would turn town so why stick my neck out and risk to look bad when I could just have sat back?

You don't see how you made him look worse? You accused him of being incoherent scum. And like I said, when momentum on scum's planned mislynch seems to be stalling, scum will often assume a much more active role out of fear that the wagon will disappear or switch.

He had already been incoherent when he voted me and I had already said so: he had said he thought me town in a prior post, then he came back, said there was no reason to vote Arc/you because Arc had done nothing suspicious (Arc hadn’t done much would be closer to the truth) which to me means null and voted me because he was suspicious of Prohawk and found possible links between us. This reversal is one of the things that made me suspect a link between you and ssbm.
Now, I don’t know for you but as scum I generally don’t have a “planned mislynch”. Sure I will push one or several people because I pick on things they say or do that look scummy but if another mislynch happens at the end of the day, why should I care? I can then complain on how everyone should have listened to me and that there’s surely scum on the mislynch that happened.

Especially since lynching Tenshii would actually have been even better for scum me than lynching ssbm (it left the original pool of 3 and Tenshii can’t be my partner).

This is a fair point. But just because it would be better in a vacuum doesn't mean it would be the better strategy; there are a lot of other factors to consider.

OK. What other factors are you thinking of in this particular situation?
I’ll cut my post to answer other points or it will be awfully long.

[Dunhallym]

Some questions for you:
- Since “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out”: what did you think ssbm was trying to achieve?

I thought that ssbm was more likely town due in part to how stupid that move would be as scum, and I thought that if town he would be trying to identify town and scum, and maybe save himself in the process.

Those are the three posts you made between ssbm post and his lynch:

Right now I'm actually more confident in ssbm being town than in Dunhallym being town. I don't know if I'm confident enough in either one of them for ssbm's plan to work, but that doesn't matter yet because Tenshii is just scum.
VOTE: Tenshii

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

It looks like ssbm is advocating a me/Dunhallym/Jaack townblock.

If we're going to do a townblock, the one I'd be most comfortable with right now is me/Gamma/Jaack. (Although I'm a bit less confident on Gamma, but I'll reread his posts and come to a definite conclusion before agreeing to this.) If we do agree to this townblock, then we have an automatic win by lynching Dunhallym. If Dunhallym is town, then ZZZX is cleared, and if Dunhallym is scum, then Tenshii is cleared, and either way we have 3 lynches and a suspect pool of 3.

If people don't agree to this, then we should lynch Tenshii, because I'm pretty sure Tenshii is scum (and I can make a case if necessary) and Tenshii flipping scum is auto win as well.

If you thought that ssbm was likely town and thought he was “trying to identify town and scum”, and you were really that sure that Tenshii was scum, then why didn’t you try to convince people, and in particular Jaack as you hard townread him, and Galmma, your other townread, who both voted ssbm at that time?

- You said Tenshii was your main suspect in your first catch up post(#210) but only voted for him in #311. Why did you wait that long before casting a vote?

I'm generally hesitant to vote, especially soon after replacing in because I know that my reads are often bad and sometimes change a lot. (In this case, Tenshii did very little in those hundred posts to change that read.) Besides, there's generally not much point to a single vote that nobody else agrees with, so I only voted Tenshii when it looked like an actual wagon might develop on him.

I was mistaken, you voted in #287, but it doesn’t really change my point.
I disagree with you. To me voting is committing to your read. It’s fine to go with FOS if you already have a vote somewhere else as you cannot vote two players at the same time, but you never had a vote on anyone. Town shouldn’t be concerned about going against the tide and I don’t remember you trying to push Tenshii to get a better read on him. BTW I’d love to see your case on Tenshii now (see #291 that I quoted above).

This said, I'm really considering voting you at this point (yeah you can call me a hypocrite after what I've just written) but I have a hard time sorting things out as to whether my suspicions come from the fact I know you're wrong or if it's deeper, and for this I need a full rererad.

[Dunhallym]

@Jaack, two questions for you:
what are your current thoughts on ZZZX? I agree that his absence makes it hard to gauge for relationships but you don't give an opinion on the player?
Since you think that Gamma/Tenshii is unlikely, why do you put Tenshii on the same level as Prohawk and me for today's lynch?

[Dunhallym]

.... I may need to do some re-evaluating...

[5] ssbm_Kyouko - Jaack, ProHawk, Gamma Emerald, Dunhallym, ssbm_Kyouko [LYNCH]

This wagon can't be ALL town can it?

You are right that it's unlikely but it happens. It did in my first game.

[Dunhallym]

EBWOP: in my first game here.

[Dunhallym]

@Jaack

You said the Gamma/Tenshii pair was unlikely because

Eh, this feels unlikely to me, mostly because Gamma has discussed lynching Dunhallym to confirm himself to Tenshii. But it's not out of the question.

can you point to me where you saw this discussion because I rapidly ISOed Gamma and can't find it.

@Gamma

You said yesterday that you thought Jaack's push on Jin was scummy. Do you still suspect Jaack or have you changed your mind and in both cases why?

@SSmart

Could you try to explain your townread on Gamma, i-e point specific things that you think make him likely town?

[Dunhallym]

@Tenshii

Okay nvm. I don't get why Jin flip flopped on his read on Jaack. It only makes sense if he was trying to cover up for himself.

VOTE: Jin/Kyouko

Can you explain what you meant by "cover up for himself"? Also why did you bring this argument at this specific point when it had been debated over and over for pages before?

[Dunhallym]

I have a few reads but as stated previously day 2 is reevaluating time. I do things little bit by little bit and will give full thoughts over the week end.
Why are you voting me now?

[Dunhallym]

The primary reason why you've been townread is because you're scumhunting in the sense of asking questions yet with all of the questions you ask I don't see you drawing any conclusions.

Also in a worst case scenario with you flipping town, a nightkill makes 5way lylo simpler to play because each person alive in 5way only has 1-2 combos.

Ok. So I'm not quick enough for your taste. So tell me what have YOU been doing? Or anyone for that matter? What are your reads?

[Dunhallym]

Ok. So I'm not quick enough for your taste. So tell me what have YOU been doing? Or anyone for that matter? What are your reads?

I don't know/remember. I don't think I've done much, if anything, but I don't care enough to reread my ISO to confirm

ProHawk Town - Because of how he interacted with me
SS Town - Articulates well and has unbiased thought processes from what I can tell
Jaack Null - Hes a wide townread but I don't really see it. If I had to force a read I'd say town mainly cuz everyone else isl
Gamma Null - P-Edit: So originally I had nothing on Gamma and was gonna put him down as a nullread but when I was typing this out I kinda had to force myself to think about it and then I remembered what (I think ZZZX) brought up about his posting style and it still holds true. I don't really remember him doing anything significant. So scumread.
ZZZX Null - Don't like his activity though
Dunhall Scum - Scumhunting without coming to conclusions.

So atm I think Gamma has a slightly better chance of flipping scum (off of reads) but off of statistics I think it's better to lynch Dunhall.

No you've not done much. Nor has anyone. From memory apart from SSmart's push on me and Prohawk voting ZZZX the only thing happening in the past two pages is me asking questions and people answering to them. So yeah, I'm kinda pissed off that you vote me because I've been doing what I had the time to do during the week when I had said from the start I wouldn't have time to give thoughts before the week-end.

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart

Some questions for you:
- Since “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out”: what did you think ssbm was trying to achieve?

I thought that ssbm was more likely town due in part to how stupid that move would be as scum, and I thought that if town he would be trying to identify town and scum, and maybe save himself in the process.

Those are the three posts you made between ssbm post and his lynch:

Right now I'm actually more confident in ssbm being town than in Dunhallym being town. I don't know if I'm confident enough in either one of them for ssbm's plan to work, but that doesn't matter yet because Tenshii is just scum.
VOTE: Tenshii

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

It looks like ssbm is advocating a me/Dunhallym/Jaack townblock.

If we're going to do a townblock, the one I'd be most comfortable with right now is me/Gamma/Jaack. (Although I'm a bit less confident on Gamma, but I'll reread his posts and come to a definite conclusion before agreeing to this.) If we do agree to this townblock, then we have an automatic win by lynching Dunhallym. If Dunhallym is town, then ZZZX is cleared, and if Dunhallym is scum, then Tenshii is cleared, and either way we have 3 lynches and a suspect pool of 3.

If people don't agree to this, then we should lynch Tenshii, because I'm pretty sure Tenshii is scum (and I can make a case if necessary) and Tenshii flipping scum is auto win as well.

If you thought that ssbm was likely town and thought he was “trying to identify town and scum”, and you were really that sure that Tenshii was scum, then why didn’t you try to convince people, and in particular Jaack as you hard townread him, and Galmma, your other townread, who both voted ssbm at that time?

Because they probably wouldn't have changed and deadline wagons usually aren't good anyway.
Because I don't usually have particular interest in convincing other people that I'm right, and I don't have a lot of faith in my reads anyway.
And also because I was busy and didn't want to waste the time considering the first two reasons.

ssbm did his post 2 days before the deadline, and you brought earlier against me the fact that he could have changed the tide and that it was not a desperate move. Besides, if you really suspected Tenshii then you cannot say that this particular deadline wagon was not good! The "I can make a case on Tenshii if necessary" is particularly bad IMO.
As for the part about not trying to convince others, either you are telling the truth and then either we have a really different idea of what mafia is about or you are being dishonest.

- You said Tenshii was your main suspect in your first catch up post(#210) but only voted for him in #311. Why did you wait that long before casting a vote?

I'm generally hesitant to vote, especially soon after replacing in because I know that my reads are often bad and sometimes change a lot. (In this case, Tenshii did very little in those hundred posts to change that read.) Besides, there's generally not much point to a single vote that nobody else agrees with, so I only voted Tenshii when it looked like an actual wagon might develop on him.

I was mistaken, you voted in #287, but it doesn’t really change my point.
I disagree with you. To me voting is committing to your read. It’s fine to go with FOS if you already have a vote somewhere else as you cannot vote two players at the same time, but you never had a vote on anyone. Town shouldn’t be concerned about going against the tide and I don’t remember you trying to push Tenshii to get a better read on him. BTW I’d love to see your case on Tenshii now (see #291 that I quoted above).

This said, I'm really considering voting you at this point (yeah you can call me a hypocrite after what I've just written) but I have a hard time sorting things out as to whether my suspicions come from the fact I know you're wrong or if it's deeper, and for this I need a full rererad.

Okay, it's how I play, you can play differently if you want.
It's not being concerned with going against the tide; it's literally common sense. A lynch can't happen with only one vote. And up until I voted, nobody else had shown any interest in voting there.
And I can still make a case on Tenshii if you want, but he's not my strongest scumread anymore.

Putting a single vote on someone who is not suspected just before the deadline is indeed not going to achieve anything. But this is not true earlier in the day, and IIRC you replaced 4 or 5 days before the deadline so if you really suspected Tenshii there was no reason not to vote. Besides I remember that I at least commented that I had had similar thoughts on Tenshii after your original post.
And yes, I want to see your case on Tenshii. The "I'd love" I used before was a polite way to say that. I don't care if he's not anymore your top scumread.

@ProHawk: would you be willing to vote Dunhallym if you think she has a good chance of being scum?

Is this a trick question?

No, it's not a trick question. Vote Dunhallym if you think she's scum. We're not lynching me or ZZZX today.

Why? Can you give me a good reason we are not voting any of you today? If it's based on numbers (IIRC you said yesterday "we're not lynching based on statistics" or something like that but whatever) then lynching you makes as much sense as lynching me: considering everyone's POV as town, for you and Jaack, I'm more likely to be scum, for Gamma and me, you are more likely and for the rest we are equivalent. If it's based on other elements, then tell me what has ZZZX done to be out of the scumpool?
Additional questions: if I'm today's lynch in your opinion, then why are you not voting me? If there are opther possibilities in your mind then who and why?

@SSmart

Could you try to explain your townread on Gamma, i-e point specific things that you think make him likely town?

I'll get to this when I have some time to reread (probably Sunday). It was mostly meta and gut having correctly gut-read him in a previous game.

OK.

So I've been waiting for your answer before making a decision but VOTE: SSmart
Part of the reasons are stated in this post but to clarify: you said yesterday that your main scumread was Tenshii but you never really tried to get him lynched or to move the tide to him. You now say that you understood that ssbm was trying to evaluate town/scum with his play but when I read your posts I don't get the impression that you saw anything else in his post than the "vote Tenshii".
Additionally, I feel that your push on me is more "Dun has a high probability of being scum, and I can use this post against her" rather than you really trying to get a feel on me. I had this impression from your first answer but sisn't want to vote on it as I'm obviously biased on the matter, but your lack of further answer confirms this impression.

[Dunhallym]

EBWOP: As for the part about not trying to convince others, either you are telling the truth and then we have a really different idea of what mafia is about or you are being dishonest.

there was one "either" too much

[Dunhallym]

OK, I won't have time for more now.
I've quickly reread Gamma/Tenshii (hence all the previous questions about them). I see Jaack's point. I have a hard time reading Gamma as he's the kind of player that I feel I'll always scumread, which is why I'm really interested in other's opinion. As for Tenshii, I dislike his vote hopping but he has also made some good points even though I'm kind of pissed at him right now.
So from my POV ZZZX/SSmart is the most likely, and my suspicions of SSmart do nothing to alleviate that.
I still need to reread Jaack and Prohawk though.

[Dunhallym]

Inactivity is killing this game.
Are you all having finals?

@Jaack are you short on time or are you deliberately keeping quiet to observe? And if the latter do you plan on giving thoughts/explaining things later on?

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart
OK for the Tenshii case and thanks for the Gamma points. About the first part of your post, just one thing I want to answer: maybe you're right on you being obviously town but this is my second game here and I've never played with any of you. So meta is not going to help me. I've tried to have a look at previous town or scum for a few of you but honestly I don't have the time or energy to do it seriously enough to get a real feel.
Other points I want to answer to:

It's not always the responsibility of town to convince others to vote with him. And it's weird that you say this when you scumread ssbm but didn't vote him until Tenshii "reminded" you that you ought to vote?

If you reread my ISO completely and are being honest, you'll see why I hadn't yet voted ssbm: I didn't want to put him at l-1 yet in the post where I said to consider my vote on him, then someone else (Tenshii IIRC) put him at l-1 and I didn't want to hammer yet either. I only voted after ssbm was back at l-2.

You now say that you understood that ssbm was trying to evaluate town/scum with his play but when I read your posts I don't get the impression that you saw anything else in his post than the "vote Tenshii".

This is either a massive reading comprehension failure or a flat-out lie.

I've quoted your three posts. You also talked about the "town block" idea, but I don't see anything that indicates you had guessed ssbm's true intents and not taken his post at face value (that's what I meant but didn't chose my words well). If I'm dumb or suck at English comprehension then so be it.

Additionally, I feel that your push on me is more "Dun has a high probability of being scum, and I can use this post against her" rather than you really trying to get a feel on me. I had this impression from your first answer but sisn't want to vote on it as I'm obviously biased on the matter, but your lack of further answer confirms this impression.

I mean, that basically is what it is. You do have a high probability of being scum, and you made a bad post, and I'm pressuring you because of it.

You miss my point here: I don't have a problem with you pressuring a post you think is bad. I have a problem because I think you are not using this pressure to evaluate me but rather that you found a pretext to suspect me and are using it.

Now, I'd like to hear what others think of our exchange because I have too many scumreads right now.
More to come

[Dunhallym]

So I said I'd do rereads on Prohawk and Jaack. Which I've done.
Prohawk first: I said earlier that I townread Prohawk. Reasons are: the agressive way he entered the game, the fact that I agree with his reasonings and the fact that he hasn't really done anything that leads me to believe he's scum. On the reread, I've not seen anything that changes my mind. So the only thing against him is his potential connexion to Tenshii. And yeah, I can see scumTenshii. But I also hate the idea of lynching someone on the basis of a possible connection to someone who looks scum.

And there is another issue. Which is the paranoia I've had since the beginning of the day about Jaack. I've not posted anything about it because I wanted to see if it held to time or if Jaack would do things to make me feel better. That’s why most of my questions were for him.
So the thing is this: I’ve townread Jaack for all of day 1 and on the reread I don’t see anything that suggests otherwise. To summarize: the way Jaack took charge and got the game forward. He gave a strategy then followed up with it. And then there is post 324:

Well I wanted some other people to add more, but waiting is lame.

The math leads me to believe Dunhallym is simply the best lynch. The odds are good and I think that SS's points in 322 are good enough that my townread there has faded. But I'm not locked in there.

1) The way Jaack changes his mind on me. Especially after his previous post: makes it seem like he was just looking for a reason to change his read and is quick to jump on SSmart’s.

Looking at the rest of the chart in case Dunhallym is town, that leaves the following pairs

ZZZX+SS
ZZZX has been a non-entity and thus difficult to gauge in terms of pairs. No lean here.

2) He says “no lean” but pretty much discards the pair in the rest of his analysis. If he had used his townread of SSmart (see his answer to me later) I’d feel better but here it seems like he just doesn’t want us to consider this pair. Which consists of his two only possible partners.

ZZZX+Jaack
I'm town

ProHawk+Tenshii
This looks pretty possible. In fact, I think it's the most likely single pair. Both players initially scumread eachother but have now faded those into townreads. Bussing your partner is especially bad in this setup, which is why neither could maintain those scumreads.

ProHawk+SS
Some similar feels to ProHwak+Tenshii, but SS's scumread on ProHawk seemed a lot more serious and genuine than either of the previous two.

3) Again disregards the pair with SSmart but doesn’t mention it being because of a townread on SSmart. Which is weird

Tenshii+Gamma Emerald
Eh, this feels unlikely to me, mostly because Gamma has discussed lynching Dunhallym to confirm himself to Tenshii. But it's not out of the question.

Something_Smart+Jaack
I'm Town

I think we need to lynch at least one of Tenshii and ProHawk either D2 or D3 just to clear up that pairing because I think there's a lot of evidence supporting it. But the math points pretty heavily towards Dunhallym. I could lynch anyone of those three tbh.[/quote]
4) I didn’t like that he put Tenshii on the same level as Prohawk even though if he thinks Gamma/Tenshii is unlikely then Tenshii/Prohawk is the only scumteam involving Tenshii while Prohawk can still be partnered with SSmart and me. I don’t like it because it feels as if Jaack doesn’t really believe in his own comments on the pairs. I also don’t like that jaack avoids giving any reads here.
And now he’s voting Prohawk but doesn’t give any thoughts on the other things that have been going in the thread.

So to summarize my thoughts:
I scumread Tenshii but not Prohawk. I can see why the pair makes sense but I also think it's easy to build associations or to be wrong about associations.
Jaack and SSmart both bring points against Tenshii/Gamma and there's no reason not to trust them on that. They can be town and wrong but the fact that they both make points in the same direction leads me to disregard this connection.
I've not reread ZZZX but I scumread him yesterday and Jaack's and SSmart's refusal to consider him raises all kind of flags.
I'm wavering on SSmart. His last post sounded more genuine than the previous one.
I have a huge paranoia attack on Jaack.

In other words I'm lost. And the inactivity is not helping me.
And on this good night.

[Dunhallym]

@ Tenshii, Prohawk
Could you both explain which points in your interaction with the other is leading to you having a townread on him?

[Dunhallym]

ZZZX hasn't posted for quite a while.
I want thoughts on the current lynch options when he returns.

What are your reads Gamma?
Not just on the "lynch options" (which are?) but on everyone.
And for that matter, can everyone give his reads? Not taking into account matrix or possible pairings or probabilities, just reads? Bonus points if they go with some explanations.

One more question: do you think it benefits scum to name their partner in his picks or not and why?

[Dunhallym]

Are you asking for individual reads? Or if I can tell you what Gamma's reads are?

individual reads.

[Dunhallym]

If you're wondering about my ProHawk, it just that I think that Tenshii-ProHawk pair is too likely to ignore at this point, and ProHawk is more likely to independently be scum.

Moar Please? All I can see is "I think Tenshii is scum, and ProHawk and Tenshii pair is the most likely combo so I am going to flip ProHawk first??"

I think that the pair of you and Tenshii is the most likely pair, and I believe I have already explained this.

Tenshii's only other possible scumpartner is Gamma, which isn't a pair that makes much sense to me.

You could be paired with SS or Dunhallym. Neither of these stick out to me as notably more likely than the average pair, but neither looks paticularly impossible.

PEdit for Dunhallym-

Independent of the chart my town to scum list would look something like
Something_Smart
Gamma
Dunhallym
ZZZX
ProHawk
Tenshii

I'm not sure if the last question is an everyone question or a gamma only question, but I'll answer it anyway.

Naming your partner in a scumpair is a relatively riskier move than not naming them. It probably makes them less likely to get lynched but should they get lynched, you'll have unintentionally confirmed someone as town. I think the net result is that it doesn't end up mattering much, but I can see scum taking a first look and assuming its beneficial.

You said at the beginning of the day that "you didn't scumread Prohawk". Has this read changed (and if so why) or does it mean that you consider all above Prohawk as leaning town?

[Dunhallym]

EBWOP: You said at the beginning of the day that you "didn't scumread Prohawk".
"" in a wrong position.

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart you said this

I thought that ssbm was more likely town due in part to how stupid that move would be as scum, and I thought that if town he would be trying to identify town and scum, and maybe save himself in the process.

I understood it as meaning that you had understood ssbm's post as a reaction test. That's why I made the point that to me your posts don't show that.

@ProHawk
You didn't give your reads list.

[Dunhallym]

@Jaack

Well it's true I wasn't scumreading ProHawk at that time, but by that point I was plenty aware of the Tenshii-ProHawk connection and wanted to get a bit more evidence before heading in that direction. I didn't want to put them on alert before I was ready so I worded my ProHawk read as friendly as possible.

I asked for reads outside of connections. You put ProHawk as the second scummiest. So this does not answer my question. What changed your mind on ProHawk between then and now or do you still have ProHawk as null independently of the Tenshii connection?

[Dunhallym]

@mod

As ZZZX has been absent for over 10 days on day 2 and lots of players seem to have been busy with finals resulting in general inactivity is it possible to get a small extension if other players agree? Thanks. I'll also be busy till Friday night as I have a project to work on.

@Jaack

to add to my previous question can you formalize the case on Prohawk and Prohawk/Tenshii?

@Prohawk

Thanks for the reads. I see what you say on ZZZX but a lot of the issues you mention come with his inactivity. I want to see more of him before I make a decision, and in particular I'd like him to explain to us all the plans he claimed he had but we never saw.

@ everyone

nobody has commented on the discussion I had with SSmart, and we both agree that would be helpful. Also, nobody has commented on what I said earlier about Jaack. I'd also like people to give their thoughts and jaack to comment on it.
Thanks

[Dunhallym]

Finished up to the bottom of page nine. I can't see any of Jaack, Gamma, or ZZZX flipping scum here. It's pretty much got to be two of Prohawk, Smart, or Dunhallym. Going to try and figure out which of them is town. I'm leaning towards lynching ProHawk though.

I can get Jaack at this point but can you explain gamma and ZZZZX ?

[Dunhallym]

then tell me what has ZZZX done to be out of the scumpool?

While its not a strong arguement I can see maybe him seeing me as a way for him to confirm late-game as I have only 2 scumparing inc/him which makes me easy to clear. Or just me having 2 pairings.

Or just having nothing to put me in the scumpool in the first place. Probably.

Yeah. In fact when I thought about it I could see the answer which SSmart gave later (as he hard town reads Jaack you can only be my partner from his PoV so no point in lynching you before me) but I still asked in case there was something else. Besides I disliked the peremptory tone he used as if there was no questioning it.

[Dunhallym]

I don't have time right now but hopefully I'll have tonight so please do not hammer yet.

[Dunhallym]

So here is where I am. When I posted this morning I was ready to vote Jaack because of this:

*snip*

I'm definitely willing to consider Dunhallym after ProHawk scumflip.

I sitll think that Tenshii's interactions with ProHawk look bad, but I have an open mind.

Because up until now, the only case Jaack had made on Prohawk is the relationship with Tenshii so the bolded part looked awful. After Jaack's last post I feel somewhat better.

So my thoughts are as follows:
I said earlier that I could see scum Tenshii. I still do, mostly because of his vote on Jin yesterday (not the fact he voted Jin but the way he flipped and the reason he gave for his vote). BV replacing has done nothing to assuage those feelings.I feel that he has misrepresented me, and I agree with Smart that his townreads are bothersome and fit really well with a Prohawk/BV team.

Yet I've not completely let down my Jaack/Smart suspicions (I think Jaack/ZZZX is much less likely). See above for the last installment of my worries on Jaack. Unfortunately, nobody has bothered to comment on the points I raised earlier. Not even Prohawk and Jaack.
Then Prohawk's case on Jaack doesn't really make sense as I agree I don't see why Jaack would need to get Prohawk lynched over other possibilities. But I also thought that some points Jin/ssbm made didn't make much sense.
I think what bothers me most and makes me feel we are being played is the lack of a case on Prohawk (independently of Tenshii).

And I feel that I don't make sense because I'm too tired to express myself properly.
In short, I oscillate between two completely incompatible positions, i-e Jaack/Smart and Tenshii/Prohawk. And each time I start leaning on one side something happens and makes me lean the other way.
I'll UNVOTE: for now.
Anyway I think it's best to wait for Gamma's replacement (sucks to have that many replacements). I should be able to work on the game this week-end.

[Dunhallym]

Ok. So as I said my biggest problem comes from the fact there is no case against Prohawk. Jack voted him because of the Tenshii connection and keeps voting for his reaction. Bv votes him by PoE. Smart is the only one who has claimed that Prohawk is scum by himself. So I'd like to see the case on ProHawk from smart. If Jaack or Bv want to make one too that would be great.
Similarly Prohawk I'd like to see your case on Jaack preferably based on in game stuff and not conspiracy theories.
Thanks a lot.

In the meanwhile ZZZZX has disappeared again. I'd really like his input. And where are we regardinggames games replacement?

[Dunhallym]

Il try to answer later today but baby is sick so not sure how much time I'll have.

[Dunhallym]

I'm going to continue later with game-relevant questions when I get home but I do want to get to know your playstyles a bit so I can get a baseline for both of you.

@Dunnhallym & Smart, can you talk about your playing history and playstyles as both alignments a bit. For example, how long you've been playing mafia, what alignment you prefer, your survival rate and winrate as mafia (approximation will do if you don't keep track), mislynch rate as town, and how accurate you think your reads are when you are town?

It'll help me profile you as players when I try to read you in-depth.

I've played only 1 other game on this site but used to play a lot on westeros/GOT mafia board back in the days. I've played a lot between 2006 and 2008, then I think I've played maybe a game every one or two years. My last attempt there in May convinced me that I didn't have the time anymore for fast paced games so that's why I finally decided to give it a go here.
I much prefer being town to scum as I prefer trying to solve the game. I was originally labelled "everdoubting Dunny". I managed to become more assertive as I played but since I stopped playing regularly I fell back in this old problem of mine as can be seen from my play yesterday. I seldom have good reads at the beginning of games. It generally gets better afterwards. I don't base myself on "tone": I'm not a native speaker and know I can sometimes sound weird because I need to translate my thoughts, and for the same reason I have a hard time reading whether a player's tone is genuine or not.
I've only be mislynched once as town in quite funny circumstances. Can't remember my win rate as town or scum and the wiki on GOT board has been down for a long time but I know that even though I was considered a rather good player I had a quite bad win rate. But there's WJ to take into account

[Dunhallym]

I'm leaning Dunhallym right now tbh.

The more I thought about it, the more I felt that ProHawk's attitude toward me felt like scum caught for the wrong reasons.

Two more points of interest:

1. Dunhallym and ProHawk had a minor bit of tnesion between them early game regarding whether unpicks should be announced immediately or not. A reread makes it feel a little like scum theatre.

2. Dunhallym seemed receptive to my scumread of Tenshii and receptive to my pairing of Tenshii+ProHawk, but didn't seem at all interested in ProHawk alone. It would be very beneficial for a scumteam of Dunhallym+ProHawk to let me turbolynch Tenshii, 'clear' ProHawk, and take the blame for 2 mislynches.

I should reread SS to make sure I'm not overlooking anything there, but these are my feels right now.

To answer your point 2: I didn't find Prohawk's play on day 1 suspicious and I've said why. I could see the Prohawk/Tenshii connection, mainly because their reason to hard town read each other seemed weak. But if I had meant for you to turbolynch Tenshii I wouldn't have asked you why Tenshii was on your lynchpool at the same level as me and Prohawk.

[Dunhallym]

Question to all:

The primary reason why you've been townread is because you're scumhunting in the sense of asking questions yet with all of the questions you ask I don't see you drawing any conclusions.

Anyone have thoughts on this? And the exchange that followed in #360, #361 and #363? Is Dun's response frustrated townie or is that scum deflecting?

I think Dunhallym's response is genuinely frustrated, but she strikes me as a player that would be frustrated with low activity as either town or scum.

I haven't really had much of an issue with what Dunhallym has been doing this game, to be honest. It's just that at the end of the day yesterday, I felt like she really didn't want ProHawk to get lynched, but was trying to look like she wasn't defending him.

I was frustrated at inactivity but I was mostly frustrated because I had spent time on the game when I was at work, which I shouldn't have done, and Tenshii was voting me on the basis that I hadn't yet given my conclusions.
As for your analysis on me you are both correct and wrong. I like an active game but as I have a hard time playing for RL reasons (i-e full work and young baby) inactivity upsets me less per se. However as town it upsets me as it's very hard to read an inactive player.

[Dunhallym]

I haven't really had much of an issue with what Dunhallym has been doing this game, to be honest. It's just that at the end of the day yesterday, I felt like she really didn't want ProHawk to get lynched, but was trying to look like she wasn't defending him.

That is pretty consistent with with my read. Just a few things to note:

#95 The early vote on AA9 made sense. Dun had a favorable view of PH here.

#374 – I understand paranoia in mafia. But I did found it odd here that she both had a town read on PH and a scum read on you. At least she admits the paranoia – that part felt towny.

I think that's where the "town read"/"scum read" expression have their limits. I never had a "scumread" on Jaack: I thought his day 1 was pretty town and all my issues with him came from 1 post and his subsequent absence, as I didn't see him actively try to sort between me, Prohawk and Tenshii.
As for PH, I also thought his day 1 was pretty town and he had been absent for most of day 2.

Tenshii did the same thing (Jaack = scum, PH = town). At least one of these is town. Now BV reversed that when he subbed in...and you were going hard after Tenshii, so town-Tenshii had a reason to be suspicious of you.

#466 and #469 may be attempts to buy time as scum - find some way to swing the tide. Not sure if I can buy that she thought there was a "lack of a case on Prohawk (independently of Tenshii)" or more so "the fact there is no case against Prohawk". At least not by that point in the game. Granted, I read most of D2 after knowing the flip, but I felt PH was starting to flounder towards the end of D2 (posts in the early - mid 400's).

Tenshii didn't have Jaack as scum. He didn't have him as town and asked us to say why we believed he was town, then he wrote him off as middle town "because everyone seems to think so" (I'm paraphrasing from memory, sorry baby is waking up and I don't have time to find the quote).
Regarding the lack of a case on Prohawk: Smart was the only one who said he scumread Prohawk for himself but never made a "case". The reason I asked Smart (and others) to make the case on Prohawk and Prohawk to make the case on Jaack was also a way to evaluate them and help me make up my mind. I agree Prohawk floundered but I also thought that from Jin/ssbm and was wrong. I spent some time on Saturday trying to look at prohawk's previous scum games to see if he was the kind of players that play like that as scum but found nothing conclusive.

One last thing before I stop with the defense part: If I'd been Prohawk's partner I'd have been more decisive. I'd either have cut the loss or made a hard push on someone else. Because from the start of the day the only real alternative to Prohawk was me.

Now, without doing any reread I think BV is more likely to be PH's partner than Smart. I'll try my best to do some work on the game before Thursday.

@mod

I'll be V/LA from Thursday night (GMT) to Friday or Saturday next week. I should be able to keep posting the first few days but will be without internet between Monday and Friday.Saturday next week.

[Dunhallym]

I had a look at camn apartment and ff7. He barely posted in the first one. As for the second he confessed at the end but it had 2 scum teams and he knew his team couldn't win anymore. So he didn't act in the same way he did in this game but I couldn't deduce much from it as circumstances were really different in both cases. I didn't have time to check further.

[Dunhallym]

I don't have time right now and I'm not sure how much time I'll have. Spent all afternoon yesterday at the ER so I have other priorities right now. I know I make the most sense as Prohawk's partner but unfortunately there's no way I can change my play from yesterday so all I can do is answer your questions. Which is why I don't ask for replacement yet because I can explain all my motivations which a replacement could not do.
Unlike you I know I'm town so it means that no matter if Prohawk's partner is Smart or BV he bussed. If you lynch me the remaining town outside of "BV/Smart" will have to sort this out tomorrow.
Look at the context. Not just ISO.
I'm leaning BV because at the moment he voted Prohawk, the main case against Prohawk was "Tenshii/prohawk". So by voting straight away for Prohawk, he disproved the case which could have been an effective way to turn the tide as it seemed it wasn't turning to me as Tenshii tried to do.
Smart's vote on Prohawk instead of me is part of what turned this tide, which is why I think he's less likely but all this is from memory.

Smart,one last thing: I see what you're refering to but all prohawk said in that post was that from his PoV ZZZX, you and me were the most likely scum based on probabilities, not that he scumread us. At least that's how I understood his post.

[Dunhallym]

I'll try to make a recap of yesterday's events i-e lynch options votes etc...
As I said atm I'm working on memory. Didn't have the chance to reread the thread yet so I just give my current thoughts.
I've tried also to make sense of Jaack being alive but I think you both had reasons to keep him around at least today. You because at the end of the day he started considering me as Prohawk partner and smart because he was town reading him.

[Dunhallym]

Dun, I didn't vote for Prohawk because of anyone else's case. It was a combination of POE and Prohawk's scummy play. Jaack was town obviously (you agreed as well). I explained why I townread ZZZX and Gamma. That just left you, Smart, and Prohawk. Smart was the towniest and Prohawk was the scummiest of the three of you. I found a lot of his arguments and stances to be fake. I didn't make a case on him because I thought I could get him lynched either way but if momentum had stalled, I would have written one out.

Smart may have voted before me but that was only because I was still catching up. I committed to voting Prohawk first. I've wondered if Smart saw that and put down a vote to look better than me in comparison. Anyways, I'm town and if you are, we've got today to explore the possibility of Smart being scum which I'm going to do when I re-read the thread.

OK I've reread Day 2 and here are my notes if you are interested.

Spoiler: day 2 notes

#311: Smart means to look at me
#313: Jaack says I have a 50% chance of being scum then asks Tenshii about Prohawk
#314-16: Tenshii doesn’t scumread Prohawk, wonders why Jaack said I’m 50% scum and asks
Smart about his scumread on him
#320: I give my current most probable teams based on townreading Jaack and Prohawk
#322: Smart doesn’t scumread Tenshii that much because he likes me less and less
#324: I’m the best lynch based on probabilities but no lock. Other lynches possible:
Prohawk and Tenshii
#332: Prohawk says ZZZX, Smart and me are the most likely scum and starts with a vote on
ZZZX
#338: Gamma votes Smart
#345: in response to my question Jaack acknowledges lynching Prohawk makes more sense as
more possible scumteams but wants to vote either as “they work well as a pair”
#347: Prohawk lists Jin’s lynchmob: [5] ssbm_Kyouko - Jaack, ProHawk, Gamma Emerald,
Dunhallym, ssbm_Kyouko [LYNCH] and says that « it can’t all be town »
#352: I call on Tenshii on his vote on Jin in #224  noted for future reference as I
really hated his vote
#356: Tenhsii votes me
#359: Tenshii is no longer Smart’s main scumread. But who is? It may seem like it’s me.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8603638
#361: Tenshii’s reads: town: Prohawk and Smart; null: Jaack and ZZZX; scum: Gamma and me
#364: I vote Smart
#368: Jaack votes Prohawk
#371: Jaack explains vote on Prohawk: “Tenshii/Prohawk seems very likely and Prohawk is
more likely scum”
#372: Smart says the lynch is me or Prohawk or mayyybe Gamma. Thinks my points against
him are bad and Gamma’s vote is bad. But also thinks that Prohawk/Tenshii seems more
likely. Surprisingly doesn’t propose Tenshii as a possible lynch.
#374: my “paranoia” post
Conclusion:
"I scumread Tenshii but not Prohawk. I can see why the pair makes sense but I also think
it's easy to build associations or to be wrong about associations.
Jaack and SSmart both bring points against Tenshii/Gamma and there's no reason not to
trust them on that. They can be town and wrong but the fact that they both make points
in the same direction leads me to disregard this connection.
I've not reread ZZZX but I scumread him yesterday and Jaack's and SSmart's refusal to
consider him raises all kind of flags.
I'm wavering on SSmart. His last post sounded more genuine than the previous one.
I have a huge paranoia attack on Jaack.
#375 Gamma townreads Prohawk
#381 Tenshii's reason for townreading Prohawk: "Uh long story short, when he replied back
to me with my scum case on him, it felt as if he was really confident in the idea he was
town. And his replies had the implication that my case didn't make logical sense, which
tbf fmpov I initially thought it did."
#382: Prohawk's reason for townreading Tenshii: "It was after the back and forth and him
changing his read on me based on actually reading and understanding my posts. If he were
scum pushing a mis-lynch, I would think he would have been a little less flexible in his
read and would have kept up his push."
#390 Jaack's reads list from town to scum: Smart, Gamma, Dun, ZZZX, PH, Tenshii
#397: Smart to Prohawk "ZZZX's only likely partner is Dunhallym so if you scumread ZZZX
lynch Dun". While that was true from Smart's PoV, that's not necessarily true from
anyone else's PoV, including Prohawk.
#409: Prohawk's reads. town: me and Tenshii; null leaning town: Gamma; null leaning
scum: Smart; scum: Jaack and ZZZX
#412: Jaack leans more scum on Prohawk but still mainly because of the Tenshii/Prohawk
connection
#413: Blackvoid replaces Tenshii
#417: Jaack makes the Prohawk/Tenshii case
#418: Blackvoid has read to the bottom of page 9: eliminates Jaack, Gamma and ZZZX as
town. Restricts the pool to Smart, me and Prohawk. Leans towards lynching Prohawk
#421: BV on page 12: thinks it's me and Prohawk, Smart may be guilty but less likely.
"Prohawk's reasoning on Jin was particularly bad" and "I was recycling some of Jaace he
was leaning
#425 ZZZX quotes Smart's post for future reference ???
#431: BV on PH, Smart and me. BV says he'll vote Prohawk. I don't get part of his
reasoning there... To look at in more details.
#432 Smart "feels better about me", thinks BV is trying to appeal to him by presenting
the same townreads and mentions his scumread on Prohawk which has reinforced. This is an
important post.
#444 that's where I feel BV misrepresents things when he says that PH and me townread
each other for inexplicable reasons.
#446 Jaack is willing to consider me after Prohawk scumflip
#450 BV votes Prohawk. Thinks it's me and Prohawk and Smart is the towniest.

So BV is correct: he indeed committed to vote Prohawk before Smart did. I also see that I had a somewhat wrong view of day 2: as most of the discussion was turning around Prohawk and Prohawk/Tenshii I thought that Prohawk's lynch looked much more likely than it really was when BV replaced in.
I see points in favor and against both connections.
I'm too tired to think properly now so I'll try to look at it tomorrow.

@Dun - I'm trying to be fair and look at all sides, but you being the other scum makes sense. If I'm right, you/PH got a raw deal the way the subs fell. Tenshii had PH as his strongest TR and Gamma seemed to be reading PH strong town as well on D2. Gamma's absence while awaiting a sub and BV subbing in did not play in your favor, which must be frustrating (if you are the remaining scum.)

In post #409 PH's read list appears to playing with the end in mind. His reads were:
Dun, Tenshii, Gamma - town
Smart, Jack, ZZZX - scum pool

If Dun is scum, PH attempts to pocket Gamma and Tenshii. Both are pro-PH. If he can convince them to vote on Smart, Jack, or ZZZX, then D3 is LYLO for town. BV subbing in for Tenshii potentially turned the table in town's favor. If Tenshii and Gamma remain in the game, a PH lynch seems unlikely.

If instead Tenshii was scum, PH was attempting to pocket Dun and Gamma. Both are pro-PH. As mentioned in my last post, I find it unlikely Tenshii's replacement would jump in and start playing against his partner. Possible, but hard to buy.

The remaining option: Smart is scum and PH places his partner in a fairly safe location - Smart might be scum but PH read the other two as scummier. Also possible. Smart's reaction to PH's vote on Jaack felt real and I'm generally reading him as town.

Smart and Tenshii were on the PH wagon, while Dun tried to prevent it. It's possible that one of these two are busing. However, Occam's razor points to Dun.

I have no doubt you are trying to look at things as fair as possible and if I have to blame anyone it's myself because my stupid paranoia made me blind to scum Prohawk and set me up as the perfect Prohawk partner. Everyone has me as the top lynch for today so all I can do apart from trying to defend myself is try to help for the final choice tomorrow.

[Dunhallym]

I'll try to answer your points. I'm on phone so apologies if I screw it up.

Finally got a chance to go over the game. Dun and Smart, if you could respond to stuff that's about you and clarify what you were talking about, that would be great. I'll do this in bits and pieces.

Game Review D1: Pages 1-4

9 - So, ArcAngel9 shows that she does know what the rules are. I'm not sure what her later confusion is about. I do get 53 but 55 seems a bit incoherent. 58 just seems to misunderstand Prohawk's wording as saying that neither player in his pairs is scum.

That was my first issue with ArcAngel: her initial post to Jin suggested she knew what she had signed for but her later confusion said otherwise so I really wondered if it was genuine or not and asked a few questions in that sense. In addition the way she joined in the claims was weird if she really didn't understand what was about.

23 - I'm intrigued by Dun's vote on Prohawk here. Is there a reason for picking him to vote?

IIRC I voted him as RVS because he was not in my picks and because he had not posted yet.

25 - Prohawk's vote back on Dun seems odd for it to be a co-incidence. I also want to note the mildly condescending tone ("this is scumhunting, darling") and regret that he didn't have her in his picks. Not sure what to make of it now but I'll see if there are any patterns. He's also condescending towards Tenshii in 27 so it might be nothing.

Since you asked the question later here is why I liked this post. There was discussion going on about when and how to post picks. Prohawk arrived and said fuck that here are my picks. It could have attracted bad attention on him which is something scum generally try to avoid. Then his vote on me and the aggressive and indeed condescending tone is something that could easily have antagonised me which again is something scum try to avoid. Plus it was the first serious vote.

33, 34, and 35 seem to be a theory discussion. I agree with Dun but since Jaack seemed to agree with Prohawk, I think it's not indicative of alignment. If Dun is scum, they have obviously been using that to have a "disagreement" early on in the game. I'm curious at Dun's lack of comment on Gamma joining her RVS wagon on Prohawk for serious reasons and whether her vote became serious at that point.

I remember asking gamma about his vote so not sure what you mean by lack of reaction. My vote didn't become serious but I generally don't remove a RVS vote unless there is a good reason to do so : i-e the player is in lynch danger or I have somewhere else to vote.

38 - Prohawk switches his vote to Gamma for sheeping. Potential excuse to leave a partner's wagon.

50 and 52 - Both ArcAngel9 and Dunhallym have repeats in their picks. I'm thinking about what the scum's best strategy here is. If I were scum, I would have an extensive discussion to decide what my fake picks would be and I probably would leave my buddy out of it entirely and pick two non-repeating townies so as to not arouse suspicion for repeats. AA9's repeat is a Prohawk pick which would be an odd choice.

57 - Prohawk's question to Gamma right after a VC was posted. He seems worried about Gamma's vote on but not Dunhallym's.

59 - Prohawk's reaction to AA9 is much calmer than how he interacts with Dun. This is a minor point but it points to AA9/Smart not being his partner.

60 - This is Dunhallym's first content post. The questions to AA9, ZZZX, and everyone are fine. The last bit does look like a town-motivated question. What I have a problem with is the question to Gamma. There are two sides to the issue: either claim pairs immediately, or scumhunt first and then claim midway through D1. Gamma first agreed that we should claim immediately. Then Dun suggested scumhunting first and he agreed with that. Then Jaack brought up the point that it gives scum less info to fake strategic picks if we do it before scumhunting and Gamma thought that was a good point and changed his mind again. Given he's sixteen and seems fairly inexperienced, I didn't see any of this as reason to be concerned. I'm not sure what original arguments Dun expected him to come up with here. It feels like a manufactured reason to go after him.

Tbh I didn't pay attention to Gamma age or experience back then. I thought that once we started giving picks scum would want to give theirs in the flow to look good. It was a minor point. I hesitated to ask Jin about it as well as our was Jin that started the flow but Jin had seemed confused before and it looked like he gave his picks once he understood what it meant. Since you also ask the question what i called Jin change of tone is that at the start of the game he looked confused at the unpicks and what it meant while shortly after he seemed to have fully grasped everything. The suddenness of the change made me question the genuineness of the initial confusion.

78 - Jaack lays out his intention to lynch from Jin, Dun, and AA9 here. Prohawk's partner is definitely in here so his reaction would be informative I think. We know it isn't Jin and Prohawk sheeps Jaack on Jin so not that helpful but I'll look into this more in a bit.

Once the picks are laid out, it became apparent that Prohawk's only partners could be Jin, Tenshii (my slot), AA9 (Smart's slot), and Dunhallym. I think whichever of them are scum would be laying out suspicions of the other three so they can get a lynch if Prohawk flips. This isn't concrete though since when I replaced in, my two other suspicions also winded up being people who could be Prohawk's partner.

87 - On that note, this could be an early setup by Dunhallym to link my slot with Prohawk.

Or a genuine question. When someone votes you for saying something but doesn't mention someone else doing the same it calls questions.

95 - Right after Jaack and Jin vote each, Dun votes AA9. The reasoning is somewhat weak (that AA9 accused her but didn't vote). As for the rest of your reads: What did you like about the way Prohawk engaged you early on? Can you go into specific posts and what you liked about them? I also don't understand what you mean by Jin "changing tone" so go into that as well.

I answered the last two in the post. Regarding my vote on arc the point I mention is the main reason I voted but it was backed up by what I explained above (i-e that I doubted her confusion was genuine) and by her overreaction to something that never existed (i-e the case linking her and Jin).

[Dunhallym]

Okay, that's fair. What changed your mind on Dun? Who do you think is the scumteam?

I might be able to find specifics if you wanted them, but the general way Dunhallym approached my pressure seemed like town trying simultaneously to defend against accusations and figure out the motivation of the person making them. She didn't really appeal to me at all, nor did she seem afraid that other people would catch on to what I was saying, as scum would be.

However, this then presents a quandary because I don't really see you or her particularly being ProHawk's partner, but I'm pretty confident that he is scum. (I guess if I had to lean one way, I'd lean you.)

Why did you say that you didn't see me as "particularly Prohawk partner" In that post and why we're you leaning BV then? What made you change your mind today as you now lean towards me?

No he isn't? He admitted that his case was weakened by his error (not lie!) but also that it brought up a new point.
Which is a valid point. Why didn't you ever call him out on the fact that he was wrong about you scumreading Tenshii?

Are you really this dense? THE LIE IS THAT HE IS SAYING I NEVER SCUMREAD TENSHII WHEN I POSTED THAT HE DID SOME SCUMMY STUFF WHICH IS WHERE HE SAID I HAD A "WEAK" SCUMREAD ON HIM.

So he's lying about a fact that makes his case weaker? And using that to push you?

Well, this is the second game in a row someone told me I was playing for the scum - with very similar wording even.

In that game, you were confirmed town. So that means that ProHawk is approaching you as if he knows you are town. Food for thought.

What thoughts does it bring?

[Dunhallym]

Ok. I'm really short on time today and I'll be V/LA from tonight to the end of next week. So in the case I don't have time to do it today and I'm lynched before I'm back: I think the key to decide between BV and smart is into 1. See what the lynch options were when they voted or committed to. 2. Try to break down what lylo would have been for each pairing if they succeeded to lynch town on day 2.
I've put in my recap of day 2 the lynch potions as presented by each player. From stats perspective Smart and me were the best options and as I And Gamma were voting Smart this could have been a valid option for Tenshii Prohawk yet they never looked like they were trying to go that way. Tenshii looked into Jaack at the beginning of the day then tried to push me. If the pairing is Smart Prohawk then Tenshii and me were the most valid options.
In both cases the issue is that the most valid options also removed a partner possibility for Prohawk. So you'll need to look at what it would have meant for day 3. Could they avoid the lynch of either of the partners on day 3 in which case bussing could have been the best option.

[Dunhallym]

Ebwop: the ending of my previous post makes no sense. It's of course if avoiding the lynch of either partner looked difficult on day 3 that bussing made sense.

[Dunhallym]

@Dun - I'm trying to be fair and look at all sides, but you being the other scum makes sense. If I'm right, you/PH got a raw deal the way the subs fell. Tenshii had PH as his strongest TR and Gamma seemed to be reading PH strong town as well on D2. Gamma's absence while awaiting a sub and BV subbing in did not play in your favor, which must be frustrating (if you are the remaining scum.)

In post #409 PH's read list appears to playing with the end in mind. His reads were:
Dun, Tenshii, Gamma - town
Smart, Jack, ZZZX - scum pool

If Dun is scum, PH attempts to pocket Gamma and Tenshii. Both are pro-PH. If he can convince them to vote on Smart, Jack, or ZZZX, then D3 is LYLO for town. BV subbing in for Tenshii potentially turned the table in town's favor. If Tenshii and Gamma remain in the game, a PH lynch seems unlikely.

If instead Tenshii was scum, PH was attempting to pocket Dun and Gamma. Both are pro-PH. As mentioned in my last post, I find it unlikely Tenshii's replacement would jump in and start playing against his partner. Possible, but hard to buy.

The remaining option: Smart is scum and PH places his partner in a fairly safe location - Smart might be scum but PH read the other two as scummier. Also possible. Smart's reaction to PH's vote on Jaack felt real and I'm generally reading him as town.

Smart and Tenshii were on the PH wagon, while Dun tried to prevent it. It's possible that one of these two are busing. However, Occam's razor points to Dun.

I've been thinking about what you said of Prohawk 409. I think there are some factors you forget to take into accounts that are thé possible teams. If Prohawk tr me and Tenshii, which he claimed doing from day 1, then he cannot suspect gamma.
Jaack smart ZZZX are another triangle of possible teams.

[Dunhallym]

Happy holidays too.

V/LA at least until next Friday, more probably Saturday. I should be able to post briefly and sporadically until Monday. Then I'll be without reliable Internet.

[Dunhallym]

@Smart

There are a few things I 'd like you to answer:
In #359 you said Tenshii was no longer your top scumread. I initially understood it as meaning me as your top scum read. Was it the case or were you thinking of one or several other players?

Then in #372 you say this about the lynch

I think right now it's down to you or ProHawk, or maaaaaybe Gamma pending a reread there.

and here is the explanation:

I agree with Jaack that Tenshii/ProHawk is very possible, and if I am wrong about Dunhallym then that's where I'd want to go. But some of Dunhallym's points on me are pretty bad and Gamma's vote on me isn't stellar either.

. Why did you consider Gamma but not Tenshii as a possible lynch since you previously had Gamma as likely town and Tenshii as likely scum?
And this is your vote in #432:

Okay, I might as well put my cards on the table. I feel better about Dunhallym after our exchange, and nothing much had happened to change my scumread on ProHawk until these quoted posts which were terrible. BlackVoid writing

Jaack, Gamma and ZZZX

off as town makes me more than a little uncomfortable, as

those are my townreads too

so I wonder if he's either trying to appeal to me or

keep me as a townbeard to protect his buddy Gamma

. But I think no matter how you slice it, it comes down to this, since a townflip would give us a ton of information and a scumflip would almost solve the game.
VOTE: ProHawk

underlined is mine. You say you townread Gamma but suspect BV of keeping you to protect his buddy Gamma? Yet you don't seem that interested in voting BV. Why?
Also, when did you go from scumreading me to this statement in your last post

Reading you is annoying because most of your posts sound fairly genuine and that's why I didn't want to see you as a ProHawk partner (and individually, I'd want to call you town more than BV).

?

[Dunhallym]

I'm back home. I'll try to read and answer later tonight or tomorrow.

[Dunhallym]

I have finally come to the conclusion that Smart is likely town too. Mainly because he didn't push Tenshii yesterday, which would have been the logical move for him if he had been Prohawk's partner given his previous suspicions and Jaack's initial post.
I have a lot to say about BV but first I'll answer some stuff. I start with that because 1) it's quicker and easier to do and I'm tired tonight. and 2) because some of my answers to his points are relevant to what makes him scum.

Time to get back into this....

I'm feeling pretty good about Dunhallym being scum still. I still think my original feelings about her play relating to ProHawk are accurate, but the real kicker on a reread of D3 is this:

One last thing before I stop with the defense part: If I'd been Prohawk's partner I'd have been more decisive. I'd either have cut the loss or made a hard push on someone else. Because from the start of the day the only real alternative to Prohawk was me.

One of my favorite scumtells is when someone overrates their own chance of getting lynched in retrospect. There was some level of interest in lynching basically anyone aside from me or Gamma in the early part of D2. Even if you were one of the more popular lynch choices early on (both SSmart and I were interested, don't remember if anyone else was) you it certainly wasn't down to you two from the start. In fact, for the first half of the day there was little interest in ProHawk at all.

The early part of day 2 was pretty inactive. You said you wanted to lynch between {Prohawk, Tenshii, me}. Smart pushed me. Prohawk gave his list of "most likely to be scum" which included me though that one would not have been a problem for scumMe; then Tenshii also voted me. ZZZW was awol and Gamma not much better. So my lynch appeared a likely possibility, which I would have taken into account in my interactions with my partner. Doubly so when the focus turned to Prohawk. That's the point I was making. I was the most active player yet I didn't try to push anyone, because all of the time I was debating my issue about you, trying to sort it out and asking myself whether I should speak it aloud or keep it quiet and bring it up only if we mislynched and you were still alive on day 3. If I had been scum, don't you think I would have tried harder to push another lynch? Especially Tenshii as his lynch would have cleared the Prohawk-Tenshii case? Instead I pointed to you that lynching Tenshii didn't make sense from your POV. Not a very smart move for scumMe when that left me and Prohawk as your targets.

[Dunhallym]

I said that BV's points and questions about me were relevant to the fact I think he's scum. The main point is that he seems to be twisting everything I said to make it look bad. That's not the way of doing of someone who is genuinely trying to find who's scum between me and Smart but of someone who wants to show I'm scum. I probably won't answer everything but point the major points.

Continuing with my review. This is until the point ssbm_kyouko and Smart replaced in. ArcAngel9 is pretty much a blank for me so I'm probably going to rely on Smart to read that slot once I get there.

Game Review D1: Pages 5-8

108 is a decent point from Dunhallym. What bothers me is that it seems opportunistic to hop onto the wagon as Jaack was pushing it and Tenshii hopped on.

I didn't vote for Jin at that point and IIRC I wasn't suspecting him much at that time. I wanted Jin to explain himself. So you saying I was "hopping on the wagon" is a misrepresentation.

119 - This post by Prohawk could go either way. He puts both Dunhallym and AA9 in the lean town group and so doesn't have to push either of them. The rest of it is obvious. He was buddying Jaack to push an SAJ lynch through but that isn't helpful.

I'm not sure how people came to the conclusion that Tenshii/Prohawk were the team. It could be my bias but the entirety of page six is Prohawk trying to convince Tenshii that SAJ was scum and Tenshii cutting through his read although conceding that SAJ's post could have been ATE. I guess it could look like two scum "disagreeing" in order to distance. I'll try and keep this in mind when looking at people's reasoning for linking my slot and Prohawk. Tenshii's reasoning for suspecting Prohawk was actually spot-on.

156 - Weak point but this looks like scum calling their buddy out asking them to do more.

163 - Here's another post I'm ambivalent about. I could see why Dun would think SAJ was scum for backtracking on his read of Jaack by unvoting. This post and the continued questioning of SAJ in 165 looks a lot like what I would do as scum though. In fact, my primary reason for suspecting Dun was that she reminded me of my scumgame and at a lot of points, she approached the game exactly as I have done as scum in the past even in my newbie scum game on this site. If I were scum in her place, I'd notice that Jaack was a vocal town voice and would probably get SAJ lynched so would be "questioning" SAJ, calling him out on his inconsistencies and backtracks and slide onto the wagon as the deadline approaches. That's exactly how Dun approached this game. She seems thorough enough to pick up on minor details and competent enough to analyze the game in-depth. I just wonder how it never occurred to her that SAJ could just be a town player that's new to mafia. It's even more concerning that she didn't back off of ssbm_kyouko because he towntold a whole lot more. I'm going to get to that later. This is also a note to read through Dun's completed newbie game as town to see if she picked up on things that were non-obvious at first glance. Should read Smart's games as well.

There's also the fact that Dun is subtly parroting Jaack which is another behavior that I can't help myself with when I'm scum and a vocal townie is pushing a mislynch. It's not so much a blatant "I agree with Jaack" which would be null but rephrasing Jaack's arguments in her own words. Take for example Jaack's 173 where he asks SAJ if anything he does is alignment indicative. Around three hours later, Dun makes 174 asking SAJ what he considers indicative of alignment which is such an empty question and just piggybacks off of Jaack's push. Didn't like the Prohawk townread either. Looked like an easy way to slot a partner as town.

It's not an empty question to me and it was also a different question from Jaack's. Jaack's question looked more rhetorical and frustrated than anything else to me. My question was aiming at making an idea of Jin's view on how to scumhunt. In fact a lot of the questions I asked Jin were aimed at pushing him to scumhunt, give his reads, etc... At that point I was starting to become more and more sure he was scum but I was still trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.

185 - These are all good, factual points from Dun but they also feel really mechanical and surface-level. I think I would have been bothered that SAJ said he never townread Jaack. I think Prohawk's ATE point is terrible but I guess I could see it from someone who doesn't read tone very well. I had the same impression when Dun grilled Tenshii on why he thought SAJ repeating that he was town was townish. Her last point on SAJ scumreading people who are voting him is weirdly phrased. I don't disagree that it's a good point but she said "

If he was a newb, I'd think that he may be biased as I have made the same mistake of trusting people who defended me and distrusting people who accused me but here it makes me seriously doubt the reality of those reads.

" But he is a newb. He joined a month ago. He was indeed biased and made the same mistake Dun claims to have made. So, why exactly is she doubting the reality of those reads even while acknowledging that they could come from town? The way he justified his reads in 186 tells me he is looking at the game from a very newbie-ish mentality that scum wouldn't defend town.

I didn't consider him as a newb simply because he said himself that he was not one. Underlined is mine:

I have come to understand that i, in some ways, come off as scummy since i deal with a high volume of attention.

Let me elaborate on this sentence i said before anyone takes it wrong. I meant that from the first game i had ever played of mafia/werewolf, i have noticed that people show me a lot of (mostly bad) attention for my gameplay.

Over the years, that has made me aware that i play a pretty scummy game no matter my alignment,

hence the warning in the previous post.

Since when is someone who has played mafia for years a newb? You're not the only one who missed it though as I recall Smart also bringing newbJin in his defense.
As for the mechanical and surface level part, you don't mention that it was a post where I did a short summary of the points against Jin and explicitely said so at the start.

I also don't quite understand why Dun keeps repeating that SAJ "hasn't done any scumhunting" and telling him to "stop saying that he's town and do something to prove it." How the hell do you do something to prove that you are town? He's a new player, getting grilled on his play, he's explaining himself but digging himself a bit deeper. It looks a lot like empty posturing. On that note, SAJ's 197 seemed really genuine although I doubt Dun was being evil enough to try and rile him up. It just seemed like she was using his inconsistencies as an excuse for looking like she's scumhunting and making a push she thinks is believable.

I'm never mean on intent. I can sometimes become "tranchante" (sorry I can't come with the right word in English) when I'm upset or because I'm short on time and want to go fast but I try to stay nice whatever my alignment. I was sorry to upset Jin. As for "showing you're town" it should be obvious from my posts, or so I think. The best way to show you're town is to try and find scum. Can you tell me where you think Jin did any scumhunting?

Dun's read on Prohawk isn't all that damning though. Tenshii and ZZZX both seemed to think that Prohawk's emotions and aggression looked town. So, this was mostly about Dun. I'm going to come back later and continue. Will have to see how the game changes upon ssbm_kyouko's and Smart's replace in.

[Dunhallym]

@Jaack, MsColumbo, Smart
If you don't have the courage or will to read all of this, please at least read my answer to BV's point on post 264. To me that's the most relevant point.

Game Review D1: Pages 9-13 (till end of D1)

210 - Smart enters the game pushing a Tenshii-Prohawk scumteam with SAJ as scum if Prohawk isn't. I think it makes sense if he's scumreading Tenshii since my slot could only be scum with Prohawk, SAJ, or Gamma. Smart seems very sure that Gamma is town and there was no reason to think Prohawk was bussing SAJ. So, I get the Gamma townread. I get the Jaack townread. I can understand ZZZX and Dun floating around in the null pile but since they can't be scum with Tenshii, I could see a town-Smart plausibly not zoning in on them initially. I think the big question is why you were scumreading Tenshii. I want to see if there is a good backing behind this read because I glanced through Tenshii's posts before I replaced in and was fairly convinced he was town. Let's go over Tenshii's twenty posts until you replaced in:

• 10 - He advocates scumhunting first and revealing picks later on. Since you suspected Dun for similar reasoning, you were at least consistent.
  
• 11 - Non serious RVS fluff.
  
• 72 - Reveals picks and says they were random.
  
• 73 - Talks about the matrix and Gamma.
  
• 74 - Disagrees with lynching based on probabilities.
  
• 76 - Follows up with Jaack on what his ideas were.
  
• 85 - Asks about SAJ's townread on Jaack.
  
• 99 - Pushes AA9 on why she was acting like Dun was tying her and Jin together. I agree with him. That post by AA9 just doesn't make any sense.
  
• 105 - Switches vote to Jin because of how he phrased his post. This was a weak argument by Tenshii.
  
• 127 - Explains why he's townreading both sides of the Jaack and Jin argument. This shows an evolving read on Jin.
  
• 128 - Changes vote from Jin to Prohawk based on Prohawk's pushes on Jin and Gamma. This was the post I thought was spot-on.
  
• 136, 140, 145, 149, 152, 157 - Engages Prohawk and his read evolves from scum to town.
  
• 181 - Declares townread on Prohawk and moves back to AA9, his previous scumread. Justifies it in 182.
  
• 184 - Defends SAJ.

So, he had solid reasons to think AA9 and Jin were scum. He then starts to townread Jin, moves onto Prohawk, interacts with him, comes away with a townread and returns to his original read on AA9. So, I don't understand what exactly you were scumreading here. He just came across as carefree and easygoing and his pushing and changing reads seemed natural. I'm actually very interested in seeing you justify this read because my read on you is mostly dependent on understanding why you had this scumread. All your other reads make perfect sense if you had Tenshii as solid scum. How was he avoiding scumhunting or commenting on the game? You've basically called both his evolving reads partner-reads, as if the only reason he would change his reads is if he was partnered with them. You explicitly said he was partnered with Jin and later implied that he could be partnered with Prohawk. What agendas was he pushing? His interactions are being guided by his mindset? What does that even mean?

Funny how ssbm_kyouko was so spot on about one of Dun or Smart being scum. I know it to be true at this point but it's completely unhelpful. I'm skimming over the math stuff between ssbm and Smart. Seems tangential and not relevant.

237 - This Prohawk post might point towards Smart being town just based on Prohawk's tone. Seemed more like he was bothered that Smart correctly nailed it down.

244 - I agree with his point about Prohawk's opportunistic push and I can see Smart not being entirely sure on SAJ but thinking Prohawk is clear if SAJ were scum.

248 - The unvote on Smart is something scum kind of has to do because of how much content Smart posted so I'm on the fence there. Not impressed with the ZZZX push based on the fact that he didn't have a plan.

Again you misrepresent things. I was not pushing ZZZX at that point but explaining my read (to Prohawk). That's minor. But you mention the lack of plan as the only point against ZZZX when it was part of a bigger picture: i-e ZZZX seeming to have ideas and be willing to do stuff then doing nothing.

252 - This post by ssbm is a pretty good one and the distancing vibes that he saw from Dun and Prohawk were similar to what I saw during my first catch up of the game. 261 is pretty kickass too. I love this guy.

259 - I like that Smart recognized some of the towntells ssbm was giving off. Something that Dun was apparently oblivious to.

264 - I don't like this Dun's post at all. First off, telling ssbm that he needs to post non-probability based reads is ridiculous because while he did make a few probability arguments, he also made a really stellar post on why Prohawk was scum which Dun seemed to have glossed over. I also think the way she reacted to being called out as a Prohawk partner was a bit too cautious and hesitant and does re-affirm my belief that it was the right call. She keeps insisting that there doesn't necessarily have to be scum in herself, ssbm, and Smart which is true but she also ignores that ssbm's perspective betrayed a very townish and non-survival oriented strategy. It's the thing Smart picked up on but Dun didn't. She then committed to voting ssbm which I could see as her wanting to eliminate someone who nailed the scumteam via lynch.

That's the worst of your misrepresentation yet.
1) the post where I asked ssbm to give non probability based reads was not that one but #250, that is before ssbm had made his "stellar post" (261?) on Prohawk. And until that post, (nearly) all of his posts were probability based. In the post you mention I explained why I was asking him to do that and I stand by what I had said there: discussion of probabilities is something that's IMO very easy to fake as scum because it's neutral. The main issue as scum is that you cannot come up with unbiased reads, so you need to mimick them, but math is naturally unbiased. 2) you say that I glossed over his case on Prohawk. I explicitely say so in my post and say I'll look at it in details later. Something that has "escaped" you. 3) the reason I commited to vote, in addition to all the previous things that I had raised about Jin in the thread before, was that ssbm voted me for a weak connection to someone he thought was scum (and I didn't) when he had said previously that he thought I was town. Once again you are twisting things.
Can you expand on how my reaction to ssbm drawing links between me and Prohawk was "too cautious and hesitant"?

283 - @Dun, could you go over why you asked this question at this particular point?

IIRC I was rereading Prohawk because of ssbm's post against him and noticed he had never mentioned his thoughts on Tenshii after his back and forth.

287 and 291 - This makes sense with Smart's reads and Smart is right that ssbm came off a whole lot more town than Dun. I don't entirely agree with ssbm's 306 because while Smart did jump on the Tenshii flashwagon idea, he had a strong solid scumread on Tenshii and it's only natural that he would hop on. In fact, if he didn't vote Tenshii at that point, I would have been more suspicious. Prohawk and Dun both doubled down and drove the ssbm_kyouko lynch through at this point which does make me think he nailed the scumteam and they reacted by getting him lynched. Smart's moves make perfect sense if his Tenshii read was genuine. The key is figuring out whether it is and for that I'll wait for his response.

So, after reading D1, I'm leaning

very

strongly towards Dunhallym as scum. I'm going to read the rest of the game tomorrow and see what I think and vote in the next couple of days. Hopefully Dun will be back too to respond to my points.

I don't have the time/courage to make my other points on BV tonight. I'll do so tomorrow.
But I'll still VOTE: BlackVoid

[Dunhallym]

Well then just lynch me now. I'm sick and tired.
Good luck for tomorrow.

[Dunhallym]

Just one thing @ BV:
as scum you don't need to prove I'm scum but you need to prove you're town because you know the game will not end with my lynch and next day against Smart will be much more difficult.

[Dunhallym]

Because I've reached the conclusion that you are most probably scum. Because jaack and ms Columbo seem to think so too so i trust whichever is still alive to make the right choice. And because I'm sick and tired and need to worry about other things than this game because even if i was absent I've been thinking about it a lot. As for rereads i did one. I gave my recap of day 2 earlier. It gave me doubts but looking back at it i think you make much more sense than smart.

[Dunhallym]

Sorry if I'm wrong but given my accuracy this game it shouldn't surprise anyone.

[Dunhallym]

OK. So after a good night's rest I feel slightly better. I'll try to do my best cause you are right that I shouldn't quit. It's not in character for me as either alignment. And I owe it to town to try my best. So I'll answer some things. I'd also like you to answer my points about you misrepresenting me.

@Dun - I don't need to show anyone that you are scum. Jaack, Columbo, and Smart have all agreed that you were scum and the only reason the day is being held up is because I want to make absolutely sure because if I'm wrong here, three-way is going to be tough and the outcome of the game will be out of my hands. I've detailed my thoughts in absurdly long walls so I can give you lots of stuff to respond to and potentially show me if I'm wrong. Normally, I try to be concise unless it is lylo.

Regarding your points, you say you wanted Jin to explain himself. But I'm trying to look at it from both angles. If you are scum, that's exactly the line of questioning I would expect you to make. The way you postured yourself during D1 is pretty much exactly how I would play when I was scum: see that Jaack was pushing hard on Jin, see Jin contradicting himself and latch onto that push. I don't think it's impossible for you to do it as town but I have to weigh whether Smart's play makes more sense as scum or whether yours does and on balance, I still think it's you.
Jin may not have been new but he was certainly biased - which was something you said you have been too in the past. I didn't think it was scummy of you to argue that Jin was pushing players that pushed him. It has more to do with how you phrased it - giving a possible reason why he would do it as town and then negating it. It didn't seem like you believed your argument.

Being biased as a newb is fine. But when you play "for years" you generally learn the hard way not to be that biased. Players that are always biased however are scum since they know things from the start. As for the way I phrased it, I had reached the point where I was convinced Jin was scum so this was just one more thing that went in that direction to me.

As far as Smart's Prohawk push on D2 is concerned, look at it from a Prohawk-partner perspective: Prohawk was under pressure on D2. There were only three people who could be his partner - you, me, and Smart. Whoever is Prohawk's partner would have to get both of the other two lynch in order to win. So, I don't think a hard-bus is out of the question here. The partner would have to make themselves look like the towniest of the three so I think powerbussing is one option that shouldn't be discounted. Of course, the more likely option is that they didn't and could have been caught off guard if they were townreading Prohawk hard.

It's not so much Smart's push on Prohawk that makes me think Smart's not Prohawk's partner than the rest of the day.
At the start of the day leader Jaack (he didn't lead that much in early day 2 but after day 1 I know I considered him as the effective leader) said he would lynch between me, Prohawk and Tenshii. Smart had expressed dtrong suspicions of Tenshii on day 1 so logical play for scumSmart as Prohawk partner would have been to keep pushing Tenshii. Instead he went after me and said he suspected Tenshii less because he suspected me more. Then later, as I questioned him on Prohawk he said he was leaning scum on Prohawk. Then he said the lynch was me or Prohawk (see questions I asked him above) before you replaced in, but he was not including Tenshii. I had a hard time understanding why which is why I asked. I still don't really get it for townSmart but for scumSmart it makes 0 sense. The way Smart answered me (i-e the fact he didn't question the motivation of my question and try to twist it to his advantage and / or to my disadvantage) is also a point in his favour.
If Prohawk and Smart had been the team the winning plan (Smart seems to be a believer in such plans) would have been to lynch Tenshii day 2 to kill Jaack's suspicions on Prohawk/Tenshii then get me lynched on day 3.
But the main thing that makes me think Smart's more likely town than you is his approach of today. I don't have issues with his reread like I have with yours.

I do have a question - you keep insisting that you could have bussed Prohawk but you had him as a weak townread. How could you have bussed convincingly without it looking like a weird as hell, last minute bus?

I said I would have taken a firmer stance one way or the other because I'm aware that staying in the middle of the river, i-e defending but not really, is the worst looking position you can take as a partner. You are right that I probably wouldn't have gone with bussing (assuming my initial stance on partner Prohawk had been the same at the end of day 1/start of day 2). But I would have firmly refused to lynch Prohawk. Since Gamma and Tenshii both had him as town, he couldn't get lynched without me. The right strategy IMO would have been to refuse to vote him and push an alternate lynch that wasn't me.

[Dunhallym]

Well, if you are town, we're pretty much headed towards a loss. Do get well soon. I'll finish reading up and look through both yours and Smart's previous games and see if I still lean towards you.

If you are town I think we have lost, that's true. Thanks for the west wishes.
I have only one completed game here. You can look at a very old town game of mine here
Don't remember that game at all honestly but it's one of the only ones that is still available on Ran's board, which is not alted and in which I played (most of the games that are still there are from after my big mafia period). It's also from the time I was playing best as I had a few games under my belt and was playing regularly, which hasn't been the case for years. You cannot ISO by player in a thread but I was killed night 1 so it shouldn't be too long. If you want to check other games, there are a couple on Soph's board but you'll need to register first. I still have admin powers so I can validate you quick if you wish.

[Dunhallym]

Okay, finally getting around to looking at some ISOs.

ProHawk/Dunhallym notable interactions:

Just noticed that Dunhallym and ProHawk RVS'ed each other; if anything that strikes me as RVS distancing, especially since ProHawk makes his vote out to sound serious but changes it to Gamma 13 posts later.

PH and Dun continue to debate about whether it's a good idea to share picks. It's very likely that scum discussed what stances they would take in the scum PT, and so this interaction is something that probably would have happened regardless of Dunhallym's alignment. (Although noteworthy is that Dunhallym promises to come back with a better argument but then instead of doing so changes her mind and shares her picks.)

Since everyone had already shared their picks I didn't see the point in explaining why I thought it was best to wait. I've given several reasons at other points in the thread. The argument I made when I said that it was better to leave scum in the dark was this: I wanted to look at interactions between players before scum knew who they could or couldn't be tied to. When a scum knows he has 2 or 3 potential partners it's much easier to try and obfuscate things to hide the real one among the others.
That's probably what Prohawk has been doing with me. the fact I townread him and had such an ambivalent position on his lynch all day made me a great target for such a thing.

Dunhallym's 87 is a point in favor of Dunhallym being town and BlackVoid being scum. It would be gutsy to Dunhallym to call out her partner for treating her differently from another player. On the other hand, it would make sense for a townie to call out one scum for ignoring their partner like that.

In 119, ProHawk townreads Dunhallym out of the blue, for reasons that amount to "she's scumhunting like town and she's genuine."

ProHawk then makes a whole bunch of posts, none of which mention Dunhallym. Dunhallym makes 174, where she calls ProHawk lean-town, and 176, which strikes me as a bit partner-defendy, especially since ZZZX made a comment that wasn't necessarily negative.

I honestly didn't understand what ZZZX meant which is why I asked the question. It was not meant as either attack or defense.
Some of my questions have ulterior motives, some are just because I don't get something. I generally don't explain which is which when I ask a question because sometimes even when a question is entirely innocent the answer can be very interesting.

After ssbm's lynch, Dunhallym's read on ProHawk graduates to a full-on townread in 320.

You are right. I realized at that point that while I had been careful at the start to label both Jaack and Prohawk as town leans, it slowly evolved to town reads. One of the reasons I wanted to reassess things.

Then begins the interaction that I think is the most critical; where ProHawk claims that Dunhallym has a good chance of being scum (332) and then fumbles when pushed to act on that.

As Dunhallym pointed out, it's likely that he just meant based purely on probabilities. But that doesn't make his reaction to my 339 any less awkward; clearly I misunderstood what he meant, but rather than correcting my misconception he tries to play my suggestion off as ridiculous in 348. I asked him again in 359, and he shrugged me off again.

In 374 Dunhallym still townreads ProHawk despite admitting a possible connection between him and Tenshii, saying that she doesn't want to lynch someone just on a partner connection.

She tries to figure out why Tenshii and ProHawk are townreading each other in 377 but never really followed up on it.

I thought the given reasons were weak, and it reinforced the possibility of a connection. Honestly if not for my paranoia (and on that note to all that were playing at that time: when someone repeatedly asks for others input it's nice to answer, no matter what you think of that player) I think I would have ended voting Prohawk.

402 is ProHawk's response to my 397, where I gave ProHawk an argument for why he should vote Dunhallym that was intentionally only valid from my POV. He didn't vote Dunhallym, nor did he show me why my logic wasn't valid. All I got was an "Uhmmm what? "

ProHawk calls Dunhallym the towniest player and begins his desperate crusade against Jaack.

As pressure on ProHawk grows, Dunhallym makes post 466, where she basically states that she has no solid scumreads and that she doesn't feel good about the lack of case on ProHawk, including asking me for one in 469, after which Grey comes in and hammers.


After reading this, I don't feel much better about Dunhallym than I did before. There's the way the two townread each other consistently, plus ProHawk's edginess and evasiveness when I asked him to vote Dunhallym, plus Dunhallym's continued defense of ProHawk, that make me think that Dunhallym is likely scum. 87 is the only interaction that I would call an unlikely partner interaction.

However, I still plan to look at the interactions between ProHawk and Tenshii/BlackVoid. That will probably come Saturday or Sunday.

Also, happy New Year's!

I completely forgot but Happy new year to you all !

[Dunhallym]

You should normally be able to see the board.
I've recently played only one game where I was town back in April-May: http://mafia.perendination.com/board/in ... topic=2035. I was killed night 1 and my play was less than stellar, especially as I never managed to keep up with the game. I was House Wayn.
I was scum in slow game 4. Not my most stellar one either. I'll check if the one we won with Mexal is on Soph's board but last time I was scum in a game was something like 4 years ago as I've played about 1 game every 2 years.

[Dunhallym]

Well, last game I was scum is game 88 from 2012. I was Nynaeve al-Meara. Problem is it's on ran's board and alts have been changed so it's now House Tyrell. Not sure if you'll be able to read it efficiently as none of the names will match. here is the link http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/t ... rn/&page=1. My fellow killers were Mat Cauthon and Moiraine Damodred. You can find the spoiler thread (where mods and dead players discuss the game) here.

[Dunhallym]

I promised I’d give my points on BV. Here it is.
First thing that bothered me was the way BV immediately cleared ZZZX and Gamma, leaving Prohawk, Smart and me as the possible scum. Jaack was fine as I could get it but I didn’t get the other too.
I asked him about it and here are his answers:

I can get Jaack at this point but can you explain gamma and ZZZZX ?

Sure.

ZZZX

1. My initial read there was gut. He just seemed very present in the game and looked like he was trying to move the game forward in a way that might be a bit hard for scum to fake naturally. His plan in 20 and 39 is an example of that. I don't agree with him but I got the impression that he's looking for ways to solve the game.
2. The townread on Prohawk despite breaking his plan shows that he's not just throwing out surface-level accusations but looking deeper into motivations. In the early game, it's hard to scum to make up convincing scumreads before people have settled into the game. Prohawk did something that ZZZX could have easily pushed on. But instead of going "Damn it Prohawk, you ruined my plan!" and using it as an excuse to have an early scumread, he looks deeper to analyze why scum would out their picks first, concludes that they wouldn't, and townreads Prohawk for it.
3. I agree with something_smart that 318 was genuine. I didn't find his surprise to be fake. I see it as a minor towntell since mafia have daytalk so they would have discussed this and planned accordingly.

Gamma

1. The scumread on Prohawk in 64 gives me slight townvibes because firstly I agree, and secondly, he doesn't seem able to explain it well. Early on in the game, he's taking initiative to develop reads even if he can't articulate them which I think scum is less likely to do.
2. I disagree with this scumread on Jaack in 102 but I understand where Gamma is coming from and it's actually a good point. I don't think what Jaack pointed out about Jin in 94 was alignment-indicative.
3. I agree with his 118 that your push on ArcAngel9 wasn't alignment-indcative and I liked that he pointed it out. I had been mildly scumreading your posts at that point.
4. Overall feel for Gamma is that the things he's pushing are stuff I can easily follow and understand and probably would have said if I was in the game. 160 is another post that makes sense to me and I did wonder what Arc was going on about there.
5. Although I don't agree with this point in 218, I don't really see the scum motive in trying to confirm Tenshii now I replaced in and know that it's a town slot.
6. I'm not sure I understand his Prohawk townread in 375 but given Prohawk is a potential lynch, I think if Gamma was scum, he'd be encouraging it rather than townreading Prohawk after Prohawk's intense desire to lynch him. It feels like an honestly wrong read (Gamma can't be scum with Prohawk so that option is out).

I don’t think the reasons were bad but I think they are too weak to justify a strong townread. And I think that there were more reasons to townread Smart than ZZZX for example (won’t comment on myself since I’m obviously biased).
So to me those looked like tailored reads. That’s the point where I almost voted Prohawk, and would have if not for my lingering doubts about Jaack/Smart.
My feeling is that as the tide looked like it may change to Prohawk (Jaack had voted him, Smart had him on his short list, I was hesitant and ZZZX was an unknown) BV chose to vote Prohawk mainly to try to disprove the Tenshii/Prohawk connection which was the bulk of the case. Once this was done, he could hope that Jaack would turn back to lynching me. Smart was already suspicious of me and I guess BV would have agreed to switch to another of his suspects, even if not his preferred one.
But most of all if Prohawk still got lynched BV would look much better than he previously did. In fact I think that bussing Prohawk was the only option he had left that could allow them to win the game.
Smart OTOH had other options, as I said in my previous post, which is why I think that Smart bussing Prohawk makes less sense.
Last but not least is the point I’ve already made that I think BV is twisting my posts.
With this I think I’ve said all I have to say.
I’ll still have some time tomorrow to answer things. I wish I could convince you to lynch BV first but I’m afraid it’s a lost battle.

[Dunhallym]

And I think that there were more reasons to townread Smart than ZZZX for example (won’t comment on myself since I’m obviously biased).

You had your vote on Smart for the entirety on D2 so this seems like bullshit.

On day 1 I think so. I'm not saying I town read him but I didn't town read ZZZX either. Main reason I left him alone on day 2 is 1)because he was awol and 2) because I became paranoid of Jaack mostly for the way Jaack left Smart out of his lynch pool.
I voted smart because of this, of probabilities and of the exchange we had on day 2.

[Dunhallym]

Thanks for the links Dun. I skimmed over your towngames and read some pages of your scumgame but didn't get much in the way of useful info. It seems like your play here is within the range of your play as either alignment but I'll finish reading Slow Game 4 and post my thoughts after this post.

Day 2 Review

324 - This is the first instance of someone (Jaack) calling a Prohawk/Tenshii team. I'll have to see who latches onto this. Before this point, Smart expressed suspicions of Dun and Dun said Smart was the best lynch, townread Prohawk and Jaack but said she'd have to look them over. So, the question is, how was Smart townier than Gamma and ZZZX if you were considering him as the best lynch? I assume you changed your mind in the few pages until the point I replaced in. Smart's 322 on Dun was pretty spot-on.

Overall, from the page fourteen interaction between Dun and Smart, I pretty much agree with nearly all of Smart's points. I do think Dun was piling on to ssbm_kyouko when he was getting lynched. I know you justified it by saying that you had suspected his slot for a long time. But the thing is, you never re-evaluated that read which I think town would do because ssbm was towntelling a lot. But it wouldn't be convenient for scum to back off especially when he was calling a Prohawk/Dun team.

If I'm being paranoid, I could see Smart and Prohawk making an elaborate ploy to make Dun look guilty by having Smart telling Prohawk to vote Dun and Prohawk dodging the question. But based on probability, I think it's more likely Smart just put him in an uncomfortable position by asking him to vote his partner. If Smart is scum, he's very, very good so that's something I'll have to check if that's the case when I read his games.

I've wondered the same thing about this interaction but while I think Prohawk's answer was made to make me look bad if he was lynched, I think that Smart's question was more likely genuine.

Smart's Tenshii case in 372 is okay. He does make a couple of good points and a couple of points which I disagree with pretty strongly. I do like the confidence that this is obviously his townplay. Dun's vote on Smart just looked like an elaborate omgus. I think there were a couple of points where Dun sounded town though especially when she kept telling us what she would do as scum. I think that level of wifom is something scum are less comfortable with. She has also highly active and made pushes on nearly everyone which is a bad strategy as scum in general. If I were scum, I'd be buddying someone and considering how similar I though Dun's play here was to my scumgame, this makes me second guess a bit. Also, the insistence on everyone giving reads.

374 - Dun's read on Prohawk is pretty bad here. She re-iterates her townread on Prohawk but says that she could see him being scum with Tenshii. This isn't an original idea. Jaack brought it up. Smart said he could see it. Then Dun was the last to latch onto it. Then she's careful to say that she doesn't want to lynch Prohawk just based on a possible connection but could see Tenshii as scum. As far as transparently scum-motivated posts go, this one takes the cake. I don't think it would have been so scummy if Dun drew the link herself but it seemed like she saw Jaack linking her partner to a townie and re-iterated that for the two most obvious reasons: lynching Tenshii after a Prohawk flip, or clearing Prohawk after a Tenshii flip. She also seems to subtly be guiding Jaack and Smart towards a Tenshii or Gamma lynch, indirectly telling Jaack that she won't help him on Prohawk but would on Tenshii, and lynching Tenshii would have been pretty advantageous for a Prohawk/Dun scumteam.

I can see how this looks bad with regards to Prohawk, but those were my thoughts. The main point to me in this post though was what I said on Jaack.

I like Smart's 397 because when he backed off of Dun, it seemed like he saw that posts seemed genuine. If Dun is scum, she's certainly gifted at "genuine" sounding posts somewhat like the EpicMafia players so making a note to look if that's present in her scumgame. Smart catching onto ZZZX's post about it being a nightless is another reason I like this post.

409 would be pretty cheeky if Prohawk and Dun are indeed scum. Don't know if I'd put it past Prohawk though given how cheeky his play has been in general.

432 by Smart is an interesting post. At this point, I replaced in and said that I would likely be voting Prohawk. ZZZX also expressed mild suspicion of Prohawk. Prohawk was being pretty obviously scummy and pushing Jaack based on weak reasoning. If Smart was scum, he'd know that if Prohawk goes down, he'd have to lynch me and Dun after. I seemed like a pretty sure next-lynch at that point after a Prohawk scumflip and he'd be looking to 1v1 Dun in lylo where he'd be able to use the fact that Dun and Prohawk hard-townread each other. On the other hand, I could see him thinking that a Prohawk townflip means that it's very likely me and Gamma.

This post was also a problem for me. Because what Smart says suggests he sees you as likely guilty but he votes Prohawk. tbh, that's the one that made me hesitate most about scumSmart as I could see him voting Prohawk to be safe while subtly pushing to lynch you instead. As if he were waiting for someone to call him on it and ask "if that's what you think then why Prohawk and not BV?". But I reconsidered mostly based on the fact that Smart didn't try at all to push for Tenshii on day 2 even though he could easily have done so without looking suspicious and to a better outcome.

Prohawk's 433 reads like caught scum more than a partner interaction. 434 and 437 just leaves me scratching my head about whether he's blatantly wifoming us or whether he wants to tie himself to a town player. Given he's got four and a half years of experience, I'd lean towards wifom, I think.

Dun's 466 is the second most super-scummy post of the game. She's been townreading Prohawk for the entirety of the game so she can't bus at the last minute without it looking exactly like a bus at the last minute. So, she then brings up me/Prohawk as a team right when Prohawk was about to get lynched. Funny thing is she "agrees with Smart" but that's not what Smart actually said. What he said was that he was paranoid that me and Gamma could be a team because if I were scum, I'd be hiding my partner as a townread.

you know what? Once I had made this post I hesitated to post it because I thought it looked really bad. But I decided to post it anyway because that was the way I felt. I'd never ever had posted that as scum. But like ZZZX said I put less filters as town.
As for the agreement with Smart, it was limited to the fact that your townreads made me uncomfortable. In fact, I was tired and hadn't read Smart's post properly so when I saw him say he felt bad about your reads I just thought that I agreed.
I've explained earlier why I felt uncomfortable about those reads.

468 - A couple of questions here: you said that I was the one more likely to be Prohawk's partner but then on D3, you said it was Dun. What changed your mind? Dun never made any significant posts in between that might have caused this. You also waited a while after D3 opened before you came into the thread to say that you thought it was Dun. Second question: you simultaneously said that Prohawk was approaching me as if he knows I'm town while calling me the most likely Prohawk partner. Can you reconcile these two thoughts?

Okay. I thought I'd be closer to making a decision but I'm not. Still leaning Dunhallym quite strongly but not to a point where I'm certain which I want to be before casting a vote. I'll look through 1) the scumgame Dun linked, 2) then Smart's previous games, 3) then D3 of this game to see if anything changes my mind. Hopefully, I'll feel good about voting then.

[Dunhallym]

So, I got around to reading that scumgame of yours Dun, and it just re-iterated my feeling that you're scum. All the things I found you scummy for here, you do there as well - like tying your partners to townies and only pushing the townie, not committing to positions, trying to find excuses to not push your partners, etc. Also, some of the things I thought were town from you seem to mostly be null because you replicate them in your scumplay as well - the genuineness, the resignation, the suggestion you be lynched. I also thought a few other players made a good point that you tunneled a lot which you certainly did here. I'm just wondering why if you were scum, you'd go to the extent of providing these games, even validating my account on that site when you know that it'll be damning for you. On another note, wish the site was still up. The game I was looking over had a lot of good analysis by many players and I I love mafia forums that emphasize that kind of play but no one's posted there for a year.

I'll just look over Smart's games now to see what I think. I really want Smart to post more today. Part of my hesitance is that he seems to not be trying to gamesolve as much, but I guess it makes sense even from town who's widely townread because if he lynches both me and Dun, he'd still win. I definitely want him to finish up his analysis and answer my questions though before we end the day.

Slow game 4 was a particularly bad scum game of mine. Don't remember the details, I just remember that I was awfully busy in RL and just not caring enough about the game to really play it and IIRC I wanted it to be over more than anything else at the end. That's not characteristic of me, as either alignment to be fair. Regarding tunneling, there's a difference between scum tunneling and town tunneling: as scum I tend to zero on a player for posting one scummy thing and push him to the end. In fact that's why I grew most suspicious of Smart yesterday: I felt that his push on me was more "I found something scummy let's use it to push Dun" rather than "this is scummy, let's investigate". As town I try to keep an open mind and ask questions to everyone like I've been doing, and the "tunnel" is more forming in my mind. My suspicion on Jin formed little by little but it reached a point where every post he made convinced me furhter of his guilt. As for Jaack, the issue is more that I kept the initial doubts to myself at the start and that the fact Jaack seemed to do nothing in the thread to sort out which of his suspects he wanted to push didn't help. I've already said so but I'll say it again, if people had at least commented/responded to it it would have helped me greatly.

On another note, there are still games from time to time there so if you're interested i'll drop a note to the next mod. be aware though that most games are fast games (i-e 32h/8h most of the time) as slow games never really took up; there are a few players from here that play or have played there more or less regulalry (Mina, Faraday, BBMolla, Nachomamma8, CityFace,...)

[Dunhallym]

Managed to glance through a couple of games of Smart's and I haven't found anything highly relevant. His townplay does seem somewhat similar to here though. Moving onto reviewing D3.

Day 3 Review

494 - So, you saw the connection between Tenshii and Prohawk because their reason to townread each other seemed weak but you were townreading Prohawk yourself and your reason wasn't particularly strong either.

you tend to always reduce reasoning to 1 thing when it's a combination of multiple factors. It was an important reason not the only one. As for my reason to townread Prohawk, I disagree with you but let's do a little test: what was/were my reason/s to townread him?

496 - This point on you being more decisive if you were Prohawk's partner doesn't take into account that you weren't here when Prohawk started attracting pressure. You were townreading Prohawk and then stopped posting because you were busy. When you came back, Prohawk was at L-1. You didn't actually have the opportunity to do much to either save him or bus him. You did say in 374 that "Jaack and SSmart both bring points against Tenshii/Gamma and there's no reason not to trust them on that." That looked like you were trying to nudge them into the direction of Tenshii/Gamma as opposed to Prohawk.

I'm talking about all the exchange I had with Jaack before that, when Prohawk had just the one vote (or even before, don't remember).
As for the second part I was stating the exact opposite of what you say. Tenshii/Gamma was one of the teams I had as likely at the beginning of the day and I spent some time looking over it to see if I could cross it. Both Smart (thinking Gamma was town) and Jaack (thinking the connection was unlikely) brought arguments against this connection, which is what I was stating. As there could be no ulterior motive to them doing it, I was stating that I was willing to follow them and cross out the Tenshii/Gamma team.

498 - If Dun is scum, she's pretty good at the game. Reading through a partner's previous games is a somewhat odd thing to do for scum. But it was an hour and a half after I asked the question so I wouldn't entirely rule out her quickly glancing through those games after I asked the question.

Why do you even bring it up then?

@Smart, I do want to know how you thought I was appealing to you by having the same townreads as you. I had you in my scumpool and if my intent was to appease you, I'd start by townreading you. This just seemed like a weird accusation. Can you elaborate?

513 - Smart's reaction test of Prohawk here makes me lean towards town. Regarding committing to vote, it's true that a hypothetical scum-me could have decided to vote elsewhere. But my point is that if you are scum, you saw that I was going to join Jaack on Prohawk, knew that if Prohawk was lynched, you needed me and Dun lynched as well to win the game, and quickly voted before I could so you'd look better than me by comparison. It just seemed like an odd co-incidence that your vote on Prohawk came after I replaced in and said I would vote him despite you suspecting him earlier.

536 - @Dun, I really don't understand your townread on Smart here for not pushing Tenshii yesterday. You are expecting scum to behave in a very narrow way and saying he's town for not doing that specific thing. I think a potential scum-Smart has several options for what he could do. For instance, push you the way he was doing. Pushing Tenshii would also give him away because he said Gamma was town and Tenshii could only be scum with Gamma or Prohawk. So, if he scumread Tenshii and Prohawk and townread Gamma, he'd HAVE to push to Prohawk. The option of pushing Tenshii didn't really exist unless he wanted to blatantly look like a Prohawk partner. So, why exactly is this a reason to townread him? Also, if Smart was town and scumreading Tenshii, I think it's perfectly reasonable for him to push Tenshii. I really don't get this townread at all for not pushing him.

Smart had had Tenshii as his top suspect from the moment he had replaced. In his post, Jaack put Tenshii and Prohawk as an equivalent lynch, even though he didn’t consider the tenshii/Gamma pairing as plausible, so I think that from scumSmart's PoV it made sense to push Tenshii. In addition he had already stated that his townread on Gamma was not that strong so he could have argued that I think. Thing is given his post 432 I don’t get why he didn’t gun for you as either alignment but it makes even less sense if he’s scum. Meanwhile I think that from your scumPoV voting Prohawk was the only viable strategy.
Now maybe I’m unfair to you here but tbh I just want to stop thinking about this game as I need to focus on other things. I’m getting lynched anyway so the one you’ll have to convince is not me.

Regarding your points about me apparently misrepresenting you, I'll try and list them out in point form.

In 537:
1. You say that I'm misrepresenting you by claiming that you "hopped on the wagon" when you hadn't yet as of 108. Maybe I should clarify: I was talking about this from a bird's eye view of knowing what happened D1. You started questioning Jin after Jaack pushed him so you were preparing to push Jin as well. You eventually did hop on the wagon. My point is that you saw him as a likely lynch because of Jaack's push and decided to back up that push.

Jaack’s initial reason to vote Jin was really weak and tenshii’s vote was not stellar either. So unless I have inhuman powers and guessed from the start how it would turn there was no wagon to hop on at this point. My point was valid and I can make a point without needing the assent of superior authorities thank you very much.
[/quote]

2. You say that Jin was not a newb because he was playing for years. Fair enough. But he still had a recent joindate and didn't look as though he was comfortable playing mafia based on how he was reacting to pressure. I did miss that bit though.

In 540:
3. You say that your suspicion of ZZZX was bigger than just lacking a plan - that he was seeming to have ideas and doing nothing. That looks like the same thing rephrased but I still don't find it a compelling argument. And it doesn't matter whether you were pushing for his lynch or explaining that read to Prohawk. My point was that I found that read unimpressive.

4. You asked ssbm_kyouko for non probability-based reads

before

he made the Prohawk case. In my re-read, I misremembered the timeline so I retract this point. You also did give him a blow-by-blow of his Prohawk case but you weren't taking into account how good it was and how town it made ssbm look. In short, you were on the wrong end of Prohawk vs ssbm and I feel that there was scum motivation behind that. ssbm thought you and Prohawk were the team and voted you based on probability and the fact that you fit into more scumteams than Prohawk. What's scummy about that?

I didn’t give a blow-by-blow on his Prohawk case as I hadn’t properly read it at that time. I gave a blow by blow answer to his points linking Prohawk and me. What I had found scummy was that ssbm had said earlier that he was townreading me, and consequently had his vote on Arc/Smart as he meant to vote based on probabilities. Then he changed his mind about Arc because there wasn’t really any reason to suspect her as she had done nothing, which I read as a null read on Arc and voted me for what I knew to be wrong connections to someone he found scummy. So he ended up voting a townread over a nullread for weak (and wrong) reasons. To me it looked like he didn’t believe in his own reads. I think I explained it already at that time. As for his case on Prohawk, when I finally got the chance to read it, I didn’t find it scummy per se but I didn’t agree with it. I was wrong.

549 - I still don't see why a scum-Smart is limited to mislynching Tenshii - and only Tenshii - on D2. Why can't he mislynch you on D2? Why can't he hard-bus Prohawk, look townier than both of us, and lynch us both for the win? Why are you acting like his *only* option was to mislynch Tenshii and because he didn't do that, he's town? And if you didn't understand why he wasn't including Tenshii in his lynch list, why are you dimissing that to call him town? Also, questioning the motivation for your question is something town should be doing because he should be trying to figure out your alignment. That's just a really weird read from you. You also say you would have firmly refused to lynch Prohawk because without Gamma and Tenshii, he couldn't get lynched if you didn't vote him. Except you pretty much said in 374 that you weren't going to lynch Prohawk. I replaced Tenshii so now we'd just need one more to lynch Prohawk. Then when it seemed like he was getting lynched, you start throwing around the possibility that he and I were a team setting up for my lynch the following day.

See what I said above on Smart/Tenshii.
I said that I hated the idea of lynching someone for a connection, not that I wouldn’t do it. tbh I thought my wording was more ambivalent than that as it was in my mind.

551 - You would have ended voting Prohawk? You seemed to be reading him as town throughout so explain?

Because if I had not been so focused on Jaack I would have seen how bad Prohawk’s last posts were; because Tenshii/Prohawk made a lot of sense. I said in 466 (I think) that I was oscillating between Tenshii/Prohawk and Jaack/Smart, so if you remove the one, only the other remains.

565 - I'm not sure I buy the distinction between your town tunneling and scum tunneling and that in the latter, you push based on a single reason. I think it's perfectly possible that you can come up with multiple reasons to tunnel someone as scum which is what you with Jin and later ssbm. ssbm did look town and it bothered me that you never picked up on this when Smart did. Smart also picked up on ZZZX's towntell on not knowing there wasn't a nightphase.

The point was not multiple reasons vs one reason to tunnel. The point is that I’ve constantly asked questions to lots of people, tried to look out of the box my tunneling provided. As for ssbm looking town, there are 2 other town players who didn’t pick on that either (Gamma and Jaack) or he wouldn’t have gotten lynched.

[Dunhallym]

(I kinda feel like I'm beating a dead horse at this point, and I also kind of like how DUnhallym played, especially D1, but she's scum and I also have to make posts until someone hammers.)

Because if I had not been so focused on Jaack I would have seen how bad Prohawk’s last posts were; because Tenshii/Prohawk made a lot of sense. I said in 466 (I think) that I was oscillating between Tenshii/Prohawk and Jaack/Smart, so if you remove the one, only the other remains.

This narrative doesn't fit all that well into the game I've been reading. While you do bring up these pairings towards the end D2 when ProHawk's lynch was all but inevitible, it doesn't really fit with how you were playing.

You never really formalized your doubts about me. It was always paranoia. And I never really felt you were all that focused on me in particular, to the point that you would overlook what ProHawk was doing completely.

While you are right that I should have been clearer on thread i fail to see the distinction you make between doubts and paranoia.

Furthermore, if you really were down to those two pairs, I don't think you would have been so insistent on me formalizing my case on ProHawk without talking about the pair. First of all, you didn't really seem concerned with me scumreading Tenshii, although I never really had very strong reasons outside of my concieved pairing of Tenshii+ProHawk. Secondly, if you really were down to those two, lynching ProHawk would have solved the game no matter the flip. If scum, you lynch Tenshii/BV, if town, then lynch me, because I would have spearheaded two different mislynches and made moderate amount of sense with both my possible partners (moreso SSmart than ZZZX, but still).

Well I did ask you to formalité the case on the pair and on Prohawk. You did on the pair but not on Prohawk. I didn't have that much on an issue on the Tenshii side because I also scum read Tenshii.
As for the last part maybe I saw you as a stronger player than you are and maybe I'm biased because I've played with people that are perfectly able to lead the game to doom but I certainly didn't see your lynch as inevitable if you lead a mislynch on Prohawk.
[/quote]

But yeah I'm guilty of having played an awful game day 2, of having thought about the game a lot when I hadn't necessarily the time to write down on the thread all that was in my head. Of having deliberately kept some of those thoughts to myself. And sincerely I wish this day would just end so I can stop thinking of other things and you can focus on the real scum. But no I won't self vote because in spite of what I said before (one more contradiction doesn't scare me) say one thing for Dunny say she never gives totally up.

[Dunhallym]

As Jaack stated that he didn't see my play coincidating with what he saw on thread here is my attempt to show you the thought process behind my day 2 posts:

I said earlier that I don't read tone all that well. It's more that I don't like relying on tone because 1) I know that I'm not that good at reading it due to language barrier and 2) I know that some people are good at feigning it and yes, BV rightly noted that it is my case. So I mainly rely on play for my reads. That's why I was initially leaning town on Jaack: because he had been moving the game forward. And similarly that's why I was originally leaning town on Prohawk: his agressivity and willingness to cut through the discussion at the start, the way he put the first serious vote, ... are things I generally associate with town. My first mistake was to be carried by words as town leans gradually became town reads. Those are not words I'm used to but we had the same problem in my original community when we started using expressions such as PI (probably innocent) and the like. That's also why I wanted to reevaluate those reads at the start of day 2, that was my post 320.
My huge problem with day 2 was inactivity. When you rely on the way people approach the game and nobody does anything (except Smart) it becomes really hard. I'll try to break down my day 2 so you understand my thoughts process as Jaack obviously doesn't get it and I can see how I made it difficult to get. I won’t include all the links, especially when I talk about near consecutive posts.

#320: I was not at all suspicious of Jaack in that one. I wrote Smart as the best lynch because 1) I had 2 likely pairs and lynching any of the 4 players was good and 2) independently of reads Smart had the best chance of being scum.
Then Jaack made his 324 and I started changing my mind on him as can be seen in my answer to Tenshii in 327: “As for my town read on Jaack its mainly from the start of the game but I plan on a reread because there are a few things that start to bother me lately but again it will have to wait some.”
#329 was the first of my questions designed to evaluate Jaack. If you read the issues I read in #374 you’ll see where those questions came from.
#335, #342 and #343 were me answering to Smart and trying to get a better read on him in the process.
#344 was the second one with questions for Jaack
In #349 I answered Prohawk about the lynch mob. Funnily, I thought Prohawk was going to come after me as I was the only player in his pool of 3 (ZZZX, Smart, me) who had been on ssbm’s lynch mob.
#351 was me trying to sort out whether I should still consider Tenshii/Gamma or whether I went with Jaack and Smart on that one. It was also me trying to get my head in another direction.
In #352 I asked Tenshii about what has been the main point against him in my book i-e his vote on Jin. I didn’t push it harder because this vote didn’t seem to answer the need of derailing another mob and because his vote change a few posts later somewhat disproved the wagon hopping point. However, it’s possible his partner pointed to him that the reasoning behind his vote was really bad and pushed him to change vote. At that point I was still in a Tenshii/Gamma reread.
In #357 I tell Tenshii that I have reads but that I won’t give full thoughts before the week-end. Thing is I had little time to post and I was working in my head on the Jaack thing but I expected to take a lot of fire when I posted it on thread so I wanted to have time to answer.
360-363 is me getting upset with Tenshii. Once I had chilled down that’s one more point that led me to suspect Tenshii and that made me consider more likely the prohawk/Tenshii connection. He never reevaluated that read, jumping on me at that time seemed like a good bet and most of all I felt his treatment of me was different from his treatment of Prohawk (see the reason he gave for townreading Prohawk).
#364 was my vote on Smart. I voted for the reasons I stated in the thread and more (see below)
#366: the part about Tenshii/Gamma was entirely genuine. The part about Smart not so much. I was at that point way more worried about Jaack/Smart than about Smart/ZZZX but I didn’t want to speak about that yet and especially not before I had reread Jaack.
#369 is keeping in line with my suspicions of Jaack. In retrospect I can see how this can be seen as a will to defend Prohawk but my issue with Jaack was that after he had stated his intent to lynch between {me, Prohawk, Tenshii} I didn’t see him doing anything to try and make up his mind, nor did he give reason to pick Prohawk over me.
#373-374 was me finally giving my thoughts. The most important part of it to me were the points about Jaack. When I made this post I was expecting a strong reaction from Jaack and from those who were strong-townreading him. The fact that everyone ignored it even after I repeatedly asked for other’s opinions on it really didn’t help at all. It’s probable that my expectations are linked to what I’m used to in similar situations on my home forum, and I approached it with those misconceptions. That was my second big mistake.
#377: now that I had spilled what had been bothering me up to this point and while waiting for reactions, I tried to take a closer look at Prohawk/Tenshii.
In #388 I was trying to get people to contribute more and my last question was because I noticed Prohawk had included Tenshii in his picks and Tenshii had included Gamma but not prohawk.
#392 and #408: remember how at the end of the day I said I had been oscillating? This was one such oscillation. After spilling the beans on Jaack in #374, I had been looking in the direction of Prohawk/Tenshii; then Jaack gives his read list and puts Prohawk as second scum. I questioned him because he had previously said he didn’t scumread Prohawk and I didn’t like his answer as I felt he was avoiding the question. Which led to me asking the Prohawk and Tenshii/Prohawk case in #411. I didn’t ask the Tenshii case because you had said from the start you suspected tenshii so it didn’t look like a reversal. The fact that you gave the Tenshii/Prohawk case but not an individual one on Prohawk bothered me for this reason.
#429 was when BV replaced in. I asked about his townreads on ZZZX and Gamma for reasons explained in previous posts today. That was another oscillation, leaning back to Prohawk/Tenshii because as I said earlier today I felt that a complete change of read was the only thing that could save the team. Given reactions to my questioning of Jaack I didn’t really think I’d get him lynched.
#430: I never mentioned it on thread but the few posts ZZZX made when he came back made me feel much better about him. As I had stated to prohawk in #411 a lot of my issues with ZZZX could be explained by his inactivity and the fact he had had a long V/LA justified that it was genuine inactivity. And I liked his posts: I liked in particular that he townread me “in spite of me going after him every occasion I got” (maybe not his exact wording).
#460 was another oscillation that I explain in #466: Jaack had always mentioned Tenshii/Prohawk as the main reason he wanted Prohawk lynched then he said he could see me/Prohawk. As stated in #466, he later explained it and his explanation made sense so it put back the scale on balance.
#469 was my last attempt to evaluate Jaack/Smart vs Prohawk.

I hope this helps you understand my mindset.

[Dunhallym]

You'll be sorely disappointed.

[Dunhallym]

Seriously this is getting ridiculous. Jaack and ms Columbo are so set on me being scum that I'm not even sure they read me anymore (read seriously I mean). The town in smart/BV is also set on me being scum so just end this. This way you can really start focusing on looking for the real scum.
BV I'm not set on Smart town. I just think you make more sense. I know I'm getting lynched today so tbh I'm just tired of wasting time and energy for naught. Besides given my accuracy this game I'm not sure my opinion is worth much even after I flip town. Sorry if type town and feel I'm unfair to you.

[Dunhallym]

Ebwop sorry if you're town and feel I'm unfair to you.
Stupid phone.

[Dunhallym]

I see what you mean. The reason I want the day to end is rl related, not in game. I could point you to a couple of games where I was scum and fought to the bitter even though I knew I was getting lynched. It's just that I'm still sick, tired, I've spent a couple nights where I couldn't find sleep because I was turning things over and over in my head. So I just want it to stop because I need to focus on my work.

[Dunhallym]

Yes that's what I've been turning over and over until I reached the conclusion that you make more sense.
But OK. I'll try to do some more work tomorrow night to see if i stick by m you or if I change my mind one again. Now is bed time.

[Dunhallym]

I'm not sure of anything. I mean there's a reason I've been labelled Everdoubting Dunny.
I'll do that tonight.

[Dunhallym]

Yay!
Congrats for turning the tide BV, and good job for making the right call Columbo !
Well played Smart and Prohawk. That was a really close one and you both played really well.

I'll make a few more comments when I have more time.

[Dunhallym]

I said I'd give more feedback when I had more time so here it is.
First, thanks mods for the game. I'm not very good at judging a game's balance but I don't think the setting is that townsided. In the beginning the matrix is helpful for town but scum can also exploit it and I think that Prohawk and Smart did some good job with that. Now, it depends a lot on players choices, the number of redundancies, that is random factors while with PR the player's skill factors more.
Several options to limit that random effect: let the players pick each one team and add a couple that you select. Or ask the FM team to select x pairs that town will know have not been selected. That way they can tweak it in a way that suits them. Or have the players select one team that cannot be picked and one that has a reduced probability of being selected (e.g. twice less likely). If 2 players pick the same team for the reduced probability then it will not be picked.
As I said I'm not very good with assessing game balance so those are just possibilities I see to change a bit the system while keeping the original idea, but it would require more thoughts in terms of balance.

[Dunhallym]

Now a few comments for players.
Prohawk, since you asked I'll start with you
The reasons I had you as likely town were your aggressive play and the fact I could easily follow your thought's process and agreed with most of the points you brought on the table. This is a weakness of mine that I tend to townread people when I agree with them and to scumread them when I don't get their thought's process. But there were 2 issues with your last posts: first the overreaction. ZZZX had called your posts emotional, I didn't find them so apart from the agressivity but this changed with your last posts on day 2. This is what prompted me to go and see your old games and check if it was in character for you as town or scum, which didn't teach me much but whatever. And second, your case on Jaack made no sense. You had been quite logical till that point, and it looked fake. I still gave you the benefit of the doubt because I had become really wary of Jaack at that point but it still raised flags, hence my attempt at getting a real case from you. Also, I think that your hard townread on me was well played, because I thought my play on the first part of day 2 was pretty obvtown and as much as I try not to townread people for tr me the fact you aknowledged that still factored in.

Jaack: I don't blame you or anyone for mislynching me. If I have one reproach for you it's day 2 : you completely ignored my paranoia on you and that didn't help, as well as your lack of comment on the Smart vs me argument in spite of the fact I asked several times for input.

I'll continue later.