Mini 2110: I hate Mafia (Day 8)

[chkflip]

Who's got cliff notes for ol' chk?

[chkflip]

I'm not down for an Enter lynch after an ISO of that slot. Gut says nah fam.

Pedit: Thank you. I got the gist of that from my dive into you.

So it's (Wake), (Rauth, Enter, Venmar, Farkran, Hectic, DrD), (Everyone Else). Minus a flip or two or a replacement or two because I imagine post 224 was several phases ago and I'm not looking back to see who died or replaced since then.

Righteous.

[chkflip]

Wait most of group 2 has been lynched homie.

How have you at all followed the plan?

[chkflip]

My brain flipped it around with the vig stuff. I thought it was tradesies either way. Okay. Ughhh so that's you, Fark, or DrD.

A ponder.

Pedit: word, word.

But the likelihood of zero mimes being there aren't great, Bob.

[chkflip]

The whole coming out as a mime, using "I'm a mime" as a defense/joke, assuring someone that it is a joke and that he's not a mime, then falling back on "I'm a mime" later just... I don't like it. That's probably not EXACTLY how it went down in real time and I may be misconstruing intent there (of the purpose of acting like that at the time I mean), likely, but I'd save that for last if I'm to follow the plan and lynch out of that group.

If there are no mimes in that group I'll make a YouTube video of me eating a hat. That's just absurdly unlikely.

Pedit: my only non-obvtown read rn is you, Enter. But your ISO is the only one I've dipped into so far. We don't have time for me to do the same with the other two so I'll just say that I'm conditionally okay with voting them over you.

[chkflip]

VOTE: Varkran

I'm good going this way.

[chkflip]

YEAH, WELL, YOU'RE STUPID.



I thought that was the third name still alive.

[chkflip]

Ohhh no I didn't mean Venmar.

I meant

VOTE: Farkran

I see the confusion though.

[chkflip]

Huh. Maybe I was wrong.

[chkflip]

Waiting for flip. Then re-voting Farkran in the event Enter flips town. Though it wasn't my read on them, the posts leading up to the self-hammer read town to me.

[chkflip]

Ehhh my pause on Dolittle was associateassociated with my wrongbadpoop read on Enter.

I will L-1 if nobody wants to drag this out to discuss Gamime Emerald.

[chkflip]

VOTE: DDL

I have a Goddamn PLAN, Arthur.

[chkflip]

If it's Pine I'm going to give him a very hard time in post.

[chkflip]

Because this game should've gone much differently if he were.

[chkflip]

How would his presence change things???

Because he's better than that?

VOTE: Farkran

I'm much more comfortable with lynching Farkran and saving Wake's bullet for a more suitable time like, for example, the unlikely mime flip.

[chkflip]

Vote Farkran.

[chkflip]

3 1/2 days...

[chkflip]

MapWolf hammered Farkran. Pretty sure that's a town flip. Moving on, we need one more town lynch and that can be Wake88 and we win, right?

5:3 -> 4:3 if Farkran flips town -> 3:3 with Wake88's lynch.

If Farkran flips town, we've won the game.

If it goes 5:3 -> 5:2 with Farkran as a mime, we'd then obviously need THREE MORE GODDAMN TOWN LYNCHES and fucking chaos ensues.

[chkflip]

Guess I'm fucking reading now.

[chkflip]

That's adorable. Walk me through it.

[chkflip]

Okay what’s this regarding scum being narrowed down here?

Vote Farkran.

No I saw something I want explained.

You really wanna talk about what looks like baiting for townpoints with me?

[chkflip]

Ez win: all vigs reveal and say who u shoot

How about no
Imo vig should wait for when town needs an extra kick, prolly close to LYWin

Here's another "townread plz" bullshit post.

I was gonna keep going, because out of our collective ISOs yours is fucking R I P E with them, but lookie what I just stumbled upon.

As for the strategy I was fine with it before I realized there’s not much of a point where it would be wise to stop besides when the second mine dies

What might be interesting is if there is a group with 1 mime we select, and that mime is lynched last out of their group, because that puts us close to a win with a whole untouched group

Actually having brought that up I feel like 6 alive would be a good time to re-evaluate that strategy. I wouldn’t say to outright stop, more to see if and how scum has been working to manipulate the strategy. If they try to devalue it that probably means it hurts them, but if they try to steer it a specific way it probably is at least not kryptonite for them

HOLY FUCKING FORESHADOWING, BATMAN.

[chkflip]

On wagon, I don't believe the entire wagon (sans Farkran) was town.

Therefore, it's one on and one off. That means, to me, both Creature and Map Wolf cannot both be town. It also means all of Nikos, Pine, and Gamma cannot be town.

Yesterday's lynch wasn't particularly difficult to obtain; however, neither has any lynch since I've joined this game.

Therefore, to me, the speed cannot be alignment indicative.

The only person I KNOW to be town is Wake88 and I still resign to the logic that he will see this game to the absolute end with having never used his shot. It is the most pro-town strategy to go by due to a misfire making this situation much worse than Farkran's flip has already made it. IIoA here, but bear with me.

-IF- Creature/Map Wolf is the way I see it, I cannot lynch there today without having solidified an undoubtable read on one or the other in one way or the other. 50/50 is a coin flip, not a mafia game.

That leaves Nikos, Pine (now Chemist - hello! without dread), and Gamma Emerald. That's 33/33/33 just on odds -IF I'M CORRECT- which still leaves a lot to be desired.

Without further ado, I state this all to say that I don't think I'll be voting toDay if I don't get a solid townread before deadline.

[chkflip]

Yep, gg. This setup was a bit townsided to start with, but rauth strategy was actually very well thought and laid out. If i were a mime i probably wouldn't volunteer either, given the premise of not being lynched ever. The lack of a factional kill, and having a town wincon that makes it unnecessary to actually scumhunt are hard to overcome i guess. Still, it feels good to win two games in a row on the same day

Who was scum by the way? At some point i thought creature was trying to derail rauth strategy, and so did map wolf - but both are voting me right now so... was my most recent read close to the actual solve? Gamma, Pine and... pyrrha, i guess?

I’m not really liking how you keep flipflopping on me. First you think I’m scum, then town, now scum again? Like why? Why are you being so waffley on my slot?

Not willing to concede? I can respect that, but you have been PoEd hard. If creature, map wolf and chk aren't town they are literally throwing now. No chance.

This further solidifies my point.

Farkran, optimally, doesn't put their entire team in either group.

Or Do ThEy!?

201, 204, and Map Wolf's weird vote change are what give me the greatest pause and bring me to my previous post.

Optimal =/= that's what a mime team absolutely did here, though.

inb4 I'm only shading the two people that just consecutively called me scum.

[chkflip]

I never thought I'd say this, but I really like Creature rn.

[chkflip]

Lol nice one, that’s another reason why I suspect you as Fark’s partner
And like sure call it foreshadowing when it requires a whole ton of luck and/or skill for that to pan out.

I love that you're verbally patting yourself on the back already. Super fucking cute.

On point: "that's another reason" -- what is? My insistence to get the wagon through? Use your words. You can't say "that's another reason" and not state what the fucking reason is.

Interesting you declare it HAS TO BE one on one off, what makes you certain MW and Creature aren’t scum?

I literally spent sentence after sentence reiterating that thus was my thought process, not what the game absolutely is or is not. The only absolute is Wake88. That's the only thing that post is concrete on. This wave of discredit attempts is absolutely pathetic but not surprising.

However, I'll still answer your question.

I do not believe that Creature and Map Wolf are on the same team because I do not believe they're playing from the same mindset. They do not BOTH read like they're uninformed in the same way. They just don't. It's also statistically unlikely that the entire mime team happily hopped on the last wagon of the Rauth plan KNOWING what was about to happen. That's just bad play. I went over this in the post, but you're skimming and looking for any little reason to discredit my voice because you're tunneling from one alignment or the other. Which is unimportant as this juncture because I've got four other players to sort.

People should start generating reads lists.

Chemist, I don't expect you to read the entire game. I do, however, expect you to read enough of it to find a person you're comfortable with sheeping for the time being while you do so. You have the gift of coming from a completely blank and worthless slot. Please use that properly.

[chkflip]

Wasn’t that your brilliant idea Chk, that we lynch Farkran instead? If a mime had to die, wouldn’t a vig shot have been a lot better, because then we could have safely lynched Wake without him losing his shot?

Not in so many words. I was (and still am) of the opinion that we shouldn't anchor the game on Wake shooting town so we "instantly win" because reads can be bad and them shooting mime yesterday would've been equally as bad as us lynching Farkran who has now flipped mime.

I mean, sure, it's arguable that having a Wake shot hitting mime and us lynching Wake afterward would but as at 4:2 toDay; however, it's equally likely of us to arrive there tomorrow without having used the shot at all.

I can say that him using it today is probably the more optimal play than any other day moving forward since it's statistically less likely to hit mime than town. But I still stand by him not using it yesterday.

Finally having a mime flip might actually be pretty beneficial, all things considered.

More people need to be active, though, for anything to happen for town.

[chkflip]

VOTE: Creature

Let's burn this candle.

[chkflip]

AW MAN YOU WERE WRONG ONE TIME EAT SHIT FOREVER

Fuck off homie I was following the plan you all laid out over several day phases. Holding that against me is incredibly silly.

[chkflip]

Like, if it's because my reads are off, why aren't you pointing out the fact that my Enter read was wrong, too? Or the fact that I doubled down on that wrong read and voted Farkran that day when Enter voted DDL?

It's fucking lazy and I'm disappointed in you and Gamma if that's all you're doing to push people against me. We've done almost nothing in almost two days. I'm pushing conversation. Shit or get off the pot.

Pedit: except... it was? Farkran was the last name in the group the entire town followed in the plan Rautherdir laid out.

Try again.

[chkflip]

I'm generating conversation after watching this game do nothing for almost two days. Enter's vig idea came daaaaaays after we had been following the plan laid out by Rautherdir. Simple. As. Almost everyone (very clearly except me, which only teetered toDay) has had one idea or another about when and who and where Wake should shoot.

I want content. There is no rush and you acting like two votes is some big time play and oh panic oh panic is so Goddamn laughably forced.

I

Want

Content

I want people in this game to do something. Anything. I'm not super excited about your posting either, lady, so harumph all you want.

Reads would be GREAT. Except... nobody is giving any. So I did a thing. By no means does that make me a leader. It just makes me the center of attention for a little bit. Good. People need to get it together and move.

[chkflip]

I'm fine with lynching any of chkflip and/or Pyrrha

So you're town-reading both of us?

But instead of your highly suspicious shade on me, why not just answer the question I asked you, re: Map auto sheeping you. Why do you have 0 reaction to that after claiming either he or Creature were mime on Farkran wagon?

@chk

/yawn

I'm going to wait for outside input first.

Thought that was kind of obvious. My bad.

[chkflip]

We're only going to have one day left after the holiday.

WhY aRe YoU rUsHiNg

[chkflip]

Gamma is running with the vanilla "I'm so town" thought process that Wake's best use of their ability is when we only need 2 more town lynches. It's under the caveat that Wake hits town, we lynch Wake, and town wins.

I'm vehemently against this plan as previously stated.

[chkflip]

To restate, I'm of the opinion that Wake shoots today (because he has a higher chance of hitting town) and we KEEP HIM ALIVE as a pseudo-IC until lynching him wins us the game.

[chkflip]

AFAIK or can tell, Gamma wants them to holster until we lynch town again. I do not. We may have similar reasons but our outlooks and outcomes are polarizingly opposite.

[chkflip]

What does woat mean?

[chkflip]

Oh it's rude. That's cool.

I want Wake to shoot today. Like asap. Then we save his lynch for last.

Gamma wants Wake to not shoot today. He wants them to shoot after another town lynch.

I want to keep Wake alive until lynching him wins.

Gamma wants to lynch Wake immediately.

Idk how tf that's still confusing.

[chkflip]

3 days if you tack on the 2 day extension GIF gave us to the opening vote count of this phase.

[chkflip]

Wake, what are your reads?

[chkflip]

Agreed. Who's his shot, then?

[chkflip]

Wake shoots _x_ (someone else heavily considered as town), lynch Creature, lynch Wake.

This is, obviously, assuming _x_ is town.

[chkflip]

Wait, no, fuck.

7.1 has the extension included. <1d left y'all.

[chkflip]

Oh it's rude. That's cool.

I want Wake to shoot today. Like asap. Then we save his lynch for last.

Gamma wants Wake to not shoot today. He wants them to shoot after another town lynch.

I want to keep Wake alive until lynching him wins.

Gamma wants to lynch Wake immediately.

Idk how tf that's still confusing.

[chkflip]

Currently we have 7 people alive. At five alive with no further mime deaths, we hit LyWin, where one more town lynch wins the game.

If we do vig into lynch Wake NOW, we merely hit LyWin versus winning the game. I assume you’re trying to propose a final win here which wouldn’t be possible rn

I don't see how this means literally anything else other than what I'm saying, so excuse my... ignorance? I'm woat after all. I also EXPLICITLY SAID the same thing not that many posts ago and you said, quote:

Gamma is running with the vanilla "I'm so town" thought process that Wake's best use of their ability is when we only need 2 more town lynches. It's under the caveat that Wake hits town, we lynch Wake, and town wins.

I'm vehemently against this plan as previously stated.

I’m not running it specifically but see no reason not to. Pyrrha seems to be lobbying for it at this moment without realizing doing it right now is not a win.

So excuse me while I walk over there to lolwut

[chkflip]

I think, maybe, you're reading the second to last line and misinterpreting it? I don't mean anything other than you have expressed a desire for Wake to shoot tomorrow after another town lynch (which is basically our only choice at this point, grats) and THEN be lynched.

I guess arguably we want him lynched at the same time. We were just disagreeing on when he should've shot.

Pedit: that, unremarkably, doesn't surprise me at all.

[chkflip]

Creature is L-1. We have 16 hours of phase left.

Creature thinks you should shoot either myself of Pyrrha.

When Creature is hammered (and Lord bless us he fucking flips town) he asks we go that direction. We can talk about all that shit later.

Please

hammer

Creature since we've already agreed that he looks the most town. Don't waste your shot on him.

[chkflip]

FUCK YEAH BABY

Wake, fmpov don't shoot map wolf. I figure one mime on the Farkran wagon and one off. Means M-Dubbs is the one.

No fucking clue which of Gamms/Chemist/Pyrrha is the one off, but if I had to choose gun-to-my-head I'd wager Pyrrha isn't the one off?

Creature's town reads were myself and Pyrrha.

I don't think Gamma or Chem really have reads? If they do they haven't shared (In Chem's case being at all, in Gamma's case being in the last two day phases at least).

Also unsure if Pyrrha just thinks I'm dumb scum or dumb town. She has only expressed that she thinks I'm dumb.

Do you have reads, Wake?

Pedit:

I would suggest not holding or otherwise coding said votes, though. For the mod's sake.

[chkflip]

EBWODP: not holding should say not bolding.

[chkflip]

savage af

[chkflip]

Or just voice opinions.

I submit myself for tribute.

[chkflip]

We still need two more town deaths to win. So Wake's (town) kill, then Wake.

[chkflip]

That's been my MO since the Farkran flip.

Thanks for catching up.

[chkflip]

I'm talking about post 846.

[chkflip]

Which I guess doesn't make sense from your PoV but I'm just trying to clarify my argument

T'was I who was confused. I skimmed and thought you were parroting me. I know you weren't here, but the timing of the wagon is why I believe it to be 1 on 1 off.

That's been my MO since the Farkran flip.

Thanks for catching up.

Oh and arguing no lynch over lynching Wake is promime, so I’m seriously wondering if you still adhere to this view?

I've never advocated no lynch?

Shooting is not really all that important. It's easier to just have a lynch.

Choose a townie and vote.

[chkflip]

Said I wasn't gonna vote, then almost immediately advocated and pushed through a Creature lynch. So the "chk no lynch" angle is a false narrative though I don't think you did that on purpose.

I'm thinking mime is Map and Gamma.

[chkflip]

You're saying I advocated a no lynch.

I didn't. I'm only talking about MY vote. Which I then fairly soon after used.

I'm honestly confused as to how this is even a pushable angle at all but okay.

[chkflip]

I spent exactly 0 posts advocating a no lynch.

I actually did the opposite in there somewhere.

I don't understand why you're vehemently ignoring that.

[chkflip]

Potentially contributing to a problem

and

ACTUALLY contributing to a problem

Two different things.

Which one did I do? WeLl By StAtInG tHaT -- no, I didn't contribute to any problem. I actually vocally said no lynching is not an option. Cool thanks fucking move on.

[chkflip]

Jesus fucking Christ are you trying to "accidentally" lynch the fucking vigilante?

Unvote.

[chkflip]

It's pretty clear what I'm implying.

[chkflip]

Nah. I'm gonna wait for Wake and pray to God he makes the right decision here.

[chkflip]

What does this read like to you, Wake?

Make a decision.

[chkflip]

Very flailing and shading. Much convoluted. Wow.

[chkflip]

Look at that complete meltdown and tell me it's town, Wake, and I'll follow you.

I just don't see it. At all.

Chemist attaching to it seems sketch af too.

[chkflip]

m e t a i s t r a s h

[chkflip]

I'm not letting go of Map being the one on, per se, but I can't tell if you're attaching yourself to this to make her look bad or if it's just my read of Map is wrong and their (Map's) overall play has been bad.

There's also the option that you're both town and I'm letting Map/Gamma (my initial call) lurksack away and we're all just hatefucking ourselves into Paranoiaville, population: 3.

But I'm distancing myself pretty heavily from all of Nikos' tunneling because I knew after several interactions that it just wasn't going to get town anywhere good (if we're both town, which was my mentality at one point in the conversation).

I'm just kind lost rn and I want Wake to fucking shoot somebody so we can hopefully solve and end this train wreck.

[chkflip]

I'm completely comfortable with seeing this game to the bitter 2:1 lylo end and being the deciding vote (if neither vote me). I'm confident I could make the right call in that situation. But we need Wake to shoot so we can exhaust the one town power we have before we lynch that slot and absolve him from the game.

[chkflip]

I don't have to redact a Goddamn thing and will not apologize for being non-responsive to your implosion. kthxbai

[chkflip]

I'm not asking Wake for a read.

I'm asking Wake to shoot somebody.

[chkflip]

I'm absolutely not lynching town's only power without it being used.

That's fucking dumb.

[chkflip]

Lynching literally anyone else? More flips means more information. So even in the off chance we hit another mime there's literally no way that second mime has perfectly distanced themselves from both Farkran AND the third mime.

I'm fully confident we find the third mime before endgame.

Pedit: I think the caveat is they need two in a row, right? I might be wrong there I haven't checked the game specific rules on that one.

[chkflip]

Bah nope it's two mislynches period.

[chkflip]

Well with only three of us fucking active rn it kinda looks like Map/Gamma are maybe lurking it out? Idk. We NEED Wake one way or the other methinks.

[chkflip]

two mislynches = two no lynches obv. Derpadoo.

[chkflip]

HOLY SHIT, SOLDIER.

This town isn't going to make the decision for you.

I think the closest is Nikos at 3 votes if you include Creature.

Soo... fuckin shoot somebody.

[chkflip]

Closest is Nikos at 3 (Creature, Nikos, Chemist)

Fuck it I'll hammer that.

Shoot Nikos bro.

[chkflip]

Otherwise you're asking us to come to a majority we literally can't come to because, minus you, it's 3 town 2 scum. The 2 scum would objectively only want to have themselves shot (Map has only asked to have himself shot, for example).

[chkflip]

I

really

fucking hope they're town. Let's end this madness boys.

[chkflip]

Im alright with that. So that clears me and we know Wake isn't a mime. The only realistic mimes left are Gamma or Map and I honestly don't believe for a second 0 mimes were on the Farkran wagon. But I'll have to look deeper into it to see if it was a weird gambit or if it's simply that Nikos was off-wagon gambitting and Chemist was just MIA because Pine.

Pedit: to be fair, you weren't going to shoot anybody because there wasn't a concensus. It helps to read the game you're playing in and I just had Nikos flailing in every direction. All you had to do was read.

Pedit2: now I know you're not reading.

[chkflip]

NOW TO ANALYZE

VC 1.2

Rautherdir: Venmar, Map Wolf, Farkran, Creature, DrDolittle, PN
Venmar: Enter, Hectic

Deadline: (expired on 2019-12-11 16:10:35)

VC 2.1

Hectic: Enter, Map Wolf, Venmar, Pyrrha Nikos, Gyro Zeppeli, Farkran, Hectic
Farkran: Gamma Emerald, DrDolittle

With 12 alive, 7 to vote

Venmar is being replaced.

To be more specific about my mod error Day 1, yes I flipped with 5 votes because for some reason I thought this game as a micro (Micro D1 = 5 to lynch). Once again, terribly sorry about this slip up.

VC 3.1

gobbledygook - Creature, Pyrrha Nikos, Enter, Map Wolf, Wake88, gobbledygook

gobbledygook was

Vanilla Townie

.

Game is frozen until I find a replacement.

VC 4.3

Enter: Farkran, Map Wolf, DrDolittle, Pyrrha Nikos, Creature, Enter
DrDolittle: Enter
Farkran: chkflip

10 alive, 6 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2019-12-18 13:16:59)

VC 5.1

DrDolittle - Creature, Farkran, Pyrrha Nikos, DrDolittle, chkflip

DrDolittle was

Vanilla Townie

Day 6 deadline: (expired on 2019-12-23 00:01:35)

.

VC 7.1

Creature: chkflip, Map Wolf, Creature, Chemist1422

Deadline: (expired on 2019-12-28 14:38:53)

Creature was

Vanilla Townie

.

Day 8 deadline: (expired on 2020-01-02 00:03:08)

[chkflip]

Still no desktop VC yadda yadda

Farkran - chkflip, Creature, Wake88, Farkran, Map Wolf

Farkran was lynched!
Farkran was a

Mime

.

Game is frozen until rep is found

Missed this one somehow. Mentally place it between the last two.

Pine was MIA, so Chemist only being on one town wagon and no other wagons is unfortunately NAI.

Gamma is seen as being on the Farkran wagon D2 and 0 town wagons at all. Not on Farkran wagon.

I'm on the Farkran wagon D4, hammered Dolittle D5, pushed the Farkran wagon D6, then pushed the Creature wagon D7.

Map Wolf is followed by or follows Farkran or Nikos onto every wagon.

[chkflip]

Unless you read the spat for the last several pages as MvM, that should indicate something to you about my slot. I'll leave that to you all to discuss. I will happily go unvoted into lylo. Idgaf.

Analytically, to me, it has to be Map Wolf with an off-shot chance at it being Gamma and an equally likely off-shot chance at it being Chemist. Though their being off all wagons is NAI, the weird stance with Nikos over the last several pages sits incredibly strangely with me.

[chkflip]

Wake, I assume you're still not going to read at all.

Is that an accurate assessment?

[chkflip]

So, really, if I can get some Goddamn discussion going with Gamma and Chemist I'm pretty sure town can still get this shit done.

[chkflip]

Do you really think I'd follow both mimes if I was a mime? I mostly just vote what other people do.

viewtopic.php?t=67827&f=56&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

You absolutely would.

Here you are, D3, following two of your partners on the same wagon over the entirety of a day phase. Then one of them died and it exposed you.

WHAT. ARE. THE. ODDS.

[chkflip]

It was more IIoA followed by my thoughts of it. I'm a former journalism major, so I like to present the facts as they are so everybody is on the same-ish page.

Why do I feel that makes you most likely to be scum?

You're playing the long game. You have a solid excuse for being there. It's just the placement of you versus the two flipped mimes that gets me going HMMMM.

That being said, I'm still mindfucking myself over who the remaining mime really is knowing full well I'm not going any-fucking-where because I spearheaded the Farkran wagon over two phases and just asked the vigilante to shoot Nikos. Who I knew just a page beforehand was a mime.

So I'm just a voice and a vote and hoping I can help sort this out.

Pedit: what after that, then? A bunch of NO U mass paranoia? What's the game plan moving forward from lynching the one known townsperson?

[chkflip]

Fucking read the game.

[chkflip]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[chkflip]

We have 12 hours.

[chkflip]

I don't even give a shit at this point. Mime?

[chkflip]

Good riddance to this clusterfuck.

[chkflip]

Tight deadlines means the playerlist kind of has to care.

I refuse to do that shit by myself forever.

gg

[chkflip]

Reading would've helped, maybe?

[chkflip]

Hahahaha

I'm sorry, have you ever moderated a game?

Don't shit on something you don't understand.