Large Normal 228: Bananas - Game Over

[gobbledygook]

VC 2.5

Fenraiser (2) - Titus, fwogcarf
NorwegianboyEE (1) - SirCakez
ManateeDude
Black Ranger (1) - Nahdia
Wake88 (2)- NorwegianBoyEE, Umlaut
fwogcarf
Umlaut
Titus
LuckyLuciano
SirCakez (1) - ManateeDude
Nahdia (2) - Black Ranger, Fenraiser

Not Voting

(2) - Wake88, LuckyLuciano

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to remove someone from the town.


LuckyLuciano replaces CantLynchAPuppy!
48 hours have been added to the deadline.
ManateeDude has been prodded.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-06-24 08:00:00)[/color]

[Umlaut]

@mod The VC shows Black Ranger voting Wake88; Black Ranger is voting Nahdia

(though I'd prefer he be voting Wake)

fixed. thank you, Umlaut!

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack.

So I didn't keep up with the game after replacing out. I was too sick for that or I would have stayed in. The only strong vibes I had at the time of replacing out were that Fwog and Ranger were town and that Cakez was mafia. I'm going to reread the game from the beginning and will post my reads when done.

[Titus]

Who is down for quicklynching? 3 days left and our largest wagon is at 2.

[Umlaut]

Wake has enough support to get to at least L-1 assuming he's still in your lynchpool, Titus.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm still catching up. I'd like to not quicklynch before I give my thoughts later tonight.

[SirCakez]

VOTE: wake
This game needs a flip so badly let's progress

[LuckyLuciano]

Cakez, you have mentioned several times that the game is dead. Do you feel that you have given your thoughts on everything that's worth talking about? Do you think that without a flip that there is no more meaningful discussion to be had? I understand that other players may not be active, what questions do you have for them when they check in?

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm ~450 posts into my catchup. I'm going to get some sleep. I'm free all day tomorrow and will finish first thing in the morning. Here's where I'm at so far.

Lucky

Titus

fwogcarf

NorwegianboyEE

Black Ranger

Nahdia

ManateeDude

Wake88

Umlaut

Fenraiser

SirCakez

I think I'm most willing to re-evaluate Ranger from the town pile, although at this point in my catch-up he feels more town than some other players. Manatee should maybe be up higher on the list. They were aggro early on both Drew and Cakez. Drew turned out to be mafia, and I think Cakez is scum. Wake could be mafia but he's never SK. I think we always lynch off-wagon today, as I think there's at least 1 scum off-wagon and I know one of the off-wagon slots (mine) is town. That leaves, {Cakez, Ranger, Wake}. I have more in-depth thoughts but I want to think over them a bit more when I'm not so tired.

[Black Ranger]

If this is 3:1:10 getting rid of the SK has high utility for us because it increases the chances that Titus goes to late game.

I guess that's a good point.
Is Wake your only SK read?

It's not really a good point if you read my next post. If the SK makes it to night the mafia then have a dilemma in weighing whether the nurse was more like a UB and whether there's a town doc (if they have a maf doc) vs shooting titus vs believing the sk will do it for them. Now that I revealed my suspicions the SK will also calculate this in reverse, but with less information available to them, if they haven't already.

Wake is my only SK read because I don't think it's productive to SK hunt. I don't think anything is unique to this setup where they could have slipped SK, so something like Wake's comments are the best that we have (in particular baiting the mafia kill to sidestep any accusations of acting like an antitown bp later in the game). That assumes that the SK was

designed

to be bulletproof and is a big assumption, but they often are.

[Black Ranger]

Cakez I think Norwegian is close to a consensus read here. Isn't it possible for town to sheep me and why are you narrowing the pool of a bus vote squarely to where Norwegian is?

[Black Ranger]

I think Wake is an acceptable lynch.

I don't really want to power through one without hearing what Manatee has to say. I still want him to level up his slot.

Luciano is redeeming Puppy's weak play today. I don't think it's incredibly likely that Drew was power bussed into the ground, but a 1-1 on/off distribution is very reasonable with how the end of day played out. If we flip scum from earlier in the wagon I would say that Nahdia would be a possible 2-0.

Luciano: any particular reason against sk!wake?

[Black Ranger]

I mean, if Manatee wants to flake for three days I'm happy to write him off as some kind of scum I guess.

[Black Ranger]

Nahdia: am I your highest scumread and why?

[Black Ranger]

Not really sure where I stand on Fen. His votes look agenday and I'm not sure how unfortunate it is that they happen to be largely the same as Drew or if that was the idea.

I think Manatee is probably town.

I don't get this read when he revised Manatee to probscum based on Drew's eod. If someone wants to pocket read fwog as scum that's ok I guess, but he never gave a real reason against someone with 100+ posts in the game.

{Fwog, Cakez, Manatee, Nahdia}

Cakez was also town for him day 1, but he cites 390 for the reason for his read to change. I'm not sure what the flip does to change that, beyond Fen pointing out that Drew backed Cakez in the exchange against Norwegian, but Drew had a hard on for Norwegian so I'm not sure whether it matters who said what if it was aimed at Norwegian.

He wants Fwog because Drew never interacted with him, but I feel like he started shitting town yesterday and if scum know someone is town and shitting it all over the thread, it really doesn't surprise me that Drew avoided him. Nahdia is a scumread for:

Your posts about Nahdia reminded me about my earlier push on them during D1 that I dropped due to Umlaut's take that I agreed with (that Nahdia was trying to find a way to get in the game) and I wanted more pressure on her today. Kinda also liked her responses too though.

Meanwhile he voted me before he voted Nahdia presumably because Umlaut dropped that quote out of context, but if myself and Umlaut are both "cleared" as of start of day, why didn't he laser focus on my read on Nahdia, who he already read as scum, when he had me as town? Even if you think Umlaut is town, it's on you to double check his work, but he didn't do that, and didn't care to check my work on our mutual SR.

Titus, what's going on in your gut?

[Black Ranger]

Meh

I was thinking he was taking Cakez' side up until he wasn't (today)

but he seemed to diffuse cakez vs norwegian day 1 in this post 540

this excerpt in particular -

"This game is so dead so I hope the day ends soon." is something I resonate with. Even Cakez pointed it out that this game was slow as "molasses". Going off on 486, Norwee connecting ending the day and eagerness to solve via flips is a good look when you take into account that this game has been going pretty slow and the most "loud" thing has been in pages 1-12 (Around there) with Bob v Osuka that didn't do shit for everyone else (sorry you two it was horrible to read).

I think a more accurate take of 369 is shown in 386 and 387 which I believe from Norwee is a townie thing to say. Why? Scum wouldn't push Cakez this hard if they were really satisfied with the game state. And his push seems genuine. I hope I'm not reaching too much here but the votes on Norwee are grosser than Bob v Osuka.

also this reminds me

why has this game died so hard?

mmk I just think it's Norwe anyways

hey cakez what the fuck

[Umlaut]

Let's get Wake up to L-1 for lurking and then fastwagon someone else at the last second, that usually works pretty well.

[Black Ranger]

Yeah fuck that guy in particular.

VOTE: Wake

[Umlaut]

It's not really a good point if you read my next post. If the SK makes it to night the mafia then have a dilemma in weighing whether the nurse was more like a UB and whether there's a town doc (if they have a maf doc) vs shooting titus vs believing the sk will do it for them. Now that I revealed my suspicions the SK will also calculate this in reverse, but with less information available to them, if they haven't already.

Where are you getting maf doc from? Not saying it's impossible but it's a weird thing to assume.

(It's not obvious to me there's a doctor at all, having a nurse without a doctor is not really that unheard of. Recently played a game that had both a nurse and a deputy with neither a doctor nor a cop.)

[Black Ranger]

I feel like it's a good role to have vs sk and has an inno against town investigative. There's been some drama about named townies lately. I think this would be more in line with what I expect from FL+RC rather than a named townie.

[Black Ranger]

of course i'm sure this setup was made before the drama came up in MD but i trust them to notice trends and in general the "pieces of the puzzle" approach with fantastic dual purpose power against town and the solo player is very much in the style of the reviewers.

[ManateeDude]

Apologies for my inactivity I was being killed by culminating work.. but I'm here and ready to dedicate all my time to the game again. I dont like Fenraiser wagon as of now but I'll go more into detail on that tmrw as well as other things but for now I need some sleep

[Titus]

VOTE: Wake

[Umlaut]

That's L-1

[Titus]

I feel like scum are deliberately not whining to avoid VCA and town are lurking hoping that I will carry them