Open 806: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[PenguinPower]

me either

[Not_Mafia]

Nice pagetop

[PenguinPower]

[Schiavetto]

Hope you all had a good sleep.
Red flip is nice. this is still scum.
VOTE: implosion

Cose da fare:
-reread both hydras, both of them keep doing things i like & things that make me go huh? &i need to make a more concerted effort to place them
-iso peta, not super thrilled w/ them since they subbed in

Most confident in t!peng & t!inf right now. I like dat less than i used to; i like isis more than i used to.

[Schiavetto]

Nice pagetop

I've thought a lot about this and i think you should change your pfp to Snubbull. Lmk what you think

[PenguinPower]

\o/

[Isis]

VOTE: implosion[/b]

[Isis]

VOTE: vote implosion /vote[/b]

[Datisi]

Actually, datisi, I need you to elaborate on your sechyd read. At the end of d1 you still seemed open to the possibility that they could be scum, and now you strongly believe that they're not even SK? And what about the gypyx head, which you had concerns about earlier?

where? the only thing even resembling a scumread of sechyd from me at eod1 that i remember/can find right now is that one line in 2204, and lemme tell you... that is not me "being open to the possibility they could be scum". like, literally in that same post, i say *twice* that i don't think they're scum/understand the scumreads on the slot.

yeah, i believe ico's play around shirou was both town!indicative and non-partner!indicative. i had one of those yesterday, i have both today. i don't think sk!ico plays that they way they did. and frankly, no offense to gypyx, but i don't actually care. unless gypyx starts utterly obvscumming (spoiler alert, he hasn't), i'm not gonna spend time reading that head when i could read a person i have a decent (and not sample-size-1) read record on.

[SirCakez]

Votecount 2.1

Implosion (3) - PenguinPower, Schiavetto, Isis
Petapan (1) - Bridgeburners
Bridgeburners (1) - Petapan
Infinity 324 (1) - Datisi
PenguinPower (1) - Implosion

Not voting (4) - Something_Smart, seCret hYdra, Not_Mafia, Infinity 324

(expired on 2021-03-04 21:52:00) remain until day end

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to reach a majority.

[Isis]

ok i'm actually reading up now

VOTE: BridgeBurners

There was no scum kill? But wasn't there two kills? And isn't there no guarantee of SK? i'm confused but pengu say "why don't people care about missing kills" and everyone is asking like kills are indeed missing

[Isis]

I guess I just read the lim and the NK back to back and perceived it as a red and green death for the night
Still isn't there like a 20% chance of no SK?

[Isis]

I'm frustrated for the 9th time that the setup isn't provided in thread

also if i was modding and someone whined like that i'd probably feel unable to interact with unbolded shit but also regretful and very irked so sorry cakez. ig

[Isis]

the odds of a serial killer is bounded by 40-60%, don't want to actually calculate coin flip distributions.
The odds of no vig is .9^7*0.5, 23%
77%*50% = ~38% chance that no one besides mafia is even trying to kill anybody anyways.

slightly lower i messed up how double K ensures vig, maybe like 33%
i think a bunch of you are SKslipping
i still want 2 redflips before I SKhunt tho

[Isis]

i think my cat pooped somewhere

[Isis]

Nice pagetop

I've thought a lot about this and i think you should change your pfp to Snubbull. Lmk what you think

Not_Mafia loves his avatar so much he thinks it should be illegal for other users not to use it.
You should keep your avatar, btw, though, Schi.

[Isis]

I voted Bridgeburners because Infinity slowpoked my

exact

scumread on them in his own words like 30 pages after i did and then the rest of the scumteam told him he's being dumb (i guess maybe there's not rest of the scumteam but whatever i think it justifies feeling even better about the read)

[implosion]

The a priori odds of an SK are exactly 50-50.

[implosion]

The odds of no vig is .9^7*0.5, 23%

A priori odds of no vig are (0.9 ^ 7) + (0.9 ^ 6 * 0.5) or about 75%. So actually even if we don't read in to who was shot at all and just go under the assumption that we know there's either a vig or an sk, it's probably an sk.

Probability of SK but no vig would be roughly 38%; probability of a vig but no SK would be roughly 12%; ergo from a Bayesian perspective, if we assume that there is either a vig or an SK but not both, the probability that there's an SK is about 75% (about 38 / (38 + 12)).

[Isis]

Ok

I feel like anytime it's above twenty and below 80 we should be asking "why is 'nobody cares enough about the missing kill' supposed to be a thing?"

[PenguinPower]

I guess I just read the lim and the NK back to back and perceived it as a red and green death for the night
Still isn't there like a 20% chance of no SK?

I don’t understand your point, Isis.

[Infinity 324]

I voted Bridgeburners because Infinity slowpoked my

exact

scumread on them in his own words like 30 pages after i did and then the rest of the scumteam told him he's being dumb (i guess maybe there's not rest of the scumteam but whatever i think it justifies feeling even better about the read)

I knew you would say this

VOTE: bridge

[Infinity 324]

@datisi Ok, 2204 didn't feel quite as strong as "<<<<rand SK", but makes sense

What changed since this post:

room temperature take: ico going after shirou wasn't scummy and it's lowkey what i'd expect of him regardless of alignment

[Isis]

I guess I just read the lim and the NK back to back and perceived it as a red and green death for the night
Still isn't there like a 20% chance of no SK?

I don’t understand your point, Isis.

My point is the number of kills for the night is pretty much meaningless and the discourse reaching "no kill" from S_S is stupid!

The only number of kills that would have had any meaning is 3, as it would have told us we're in the SK-vig setup exactly. Anything else is an ambiguous mix of different setup rands and kill prevention (and almost certainly not "no killing" since the scum would realize "only number of kills that would have any meaning is 3"

[Infinity 324]

The fact that shirou spent so long talking about the tracker claim and pushing to elim s_s is +scum for implo