In post 1865, mastina wrote: In post 0, Jingle wrote:Radical Rat
Amy Dunne
mastina
MegAzumarill
Dwlee99
Dunnstral
Almost50
RCEnigma
CheekyTeeky
Lady Chloe
Ircher
House
T3
I am basically town in all three games.
Lady Chloe, Almost50, and CheekyTeeky, if any of them are scum frankly I'll just let them win the game because they're the players who'd have earned it via just being town.
RCEnigma is proven town in game 1 and is almost certainly town in game 2 as well.
So that leaves for scum candidates in both games:
Radical Rat
Amy Dunne
Dwlee99 (probably town in game 1 but confscum in game 2)
Dunnstral
House
T3
6 names for 3 scum in both games.
In game 2, from CheekyTeeky, we know there is an alignment change between House and me, me and CheekyTeeky, and a third at some point which makes Dwlee scum at the end.
The fourth can
only
be the Demon Lord, because there's no combination which can generate 4 changes otherwise.
House<1>
mastina
<2>
CheekyTeeky
<hypo-3>T3<hypo-4>RR<hypo-5>
Dwlee
is a change too many.
House<1>
mastina
<2>
CheekyTeeky
<hypo-0 change>T3<hypo-3>RR<hypo-4>
Dwlee
is impossible because Dwlee has admitted that they're scum.
House<1>
mastina
<2>
CheekyTeeky
<hypo-3>T3<hypo-0 change>RR<hypo-4>
Dwlee
is impossible because Dwlee has admitted that they're scum.
The
only
possibility is the Demon Lord counting as a change;
House<2>
mastina
<3>
CheekyTeeky
<hypo-0 change>T3<hypo-0 change>RR<hypo-4>
Dwlee
is possible, but it means there's two scum off the wagon.
If we take {A50, Lady Chloe, RCE} to be town, and IF we take the above combo to be the correct one, that means the 2/3 possible scum off the wagon are PRECISELY:
{Amy Dunne, Dunnstral}.
House<2>
mastina
<3>
CheekyTeeky
<hypo-0 change>T3<hypo-4>RR<hypo-0 change>
Dwlee
is possible, and means that Radical Rat would be scum.
It would also mean that 1/2 of {Amy Dunne, Dunnstral} would be scum and the other would be town.
House<2>
mastina
<3>
CheekyTeeky
<hypo-4>T3<hypo-0 change>RR<hypo-0 change>
Dwlee
is possible, and means that Radical Rat would be scum,
in addition to
T3
also
being scum.
This is the only scenario in which both of {Amy Dunne, Dunnstral} are town.
@AMY DUNNE:
@DUNNSTRAL:
From your perspectives, in game #2, Radical Rat should be literally confirmed scum to you. As in, 100% cannot be town by mechanics if you yourself are town.
For Game #1, it's unfortunately more difficult to solve. It's
probably
not Dwlee.
I doubt that Radical Rat is scum in all three games, so if he's scum in game #2 (which is highly likely as the only way he's not scum in game 2 is if both Amy Dunne and Dunnstral are scum and I doubt that), he's probably also town in game #1 like Dwlee.
Which leaves the
probable
scum in game #1 as:
{Amy Dunne, Dunnstral, House, T3}.
T3 is probably scum in 1/2 games.
If Amy Dunne and Dunnstral are both town in game #2, then T3 would probably be town in game #1 by virtue of being scum in game #2.
But if only 1/2 of Amy Dunne and Dunnstral are town in game #2, then T3 would probably be scum in game #1 by virtue of being town in game #2.
In other words, T3 is town in either game 1 or game 2, Amy Dunne and Dunnstral must have one game they are town in and one
Not deleting the above but striking it as I realized that while RR is probably not scum in all 3 games, there is a reasonable chance
T3
could in fact be scum in all 3 games, so the above thought process I abandoned once I realized it.
Still, though, regardless of T3 being scum in one game or both games, that means that there's a minimum of 2 scum in {Amy Dunne, Dunnstral, House} in game 1.
Which means that:
@AMY DUNNE:
@DUNNSTRAL:
From your perspectives, in game #1, the other of you should be literally confirmed scum to you. As in, 99*% cannot be town by mechanics if you yourself are town.
*The 1% is RR being scum in all three games.
You know what that also means?
Unless the scumteam for game #1 is precisely {Amy Dunne, Dunnstral, T3} (or RR is scum in all 3 games, I guess, but again, that isn't very likely imo), House would be scum in game #1.
(I should add: it's technically possible for House to be scum in game #2 as there's no distinguishing between town and scum for him, but House is probably not scum in all three games the same way RR probably isn't, and the math for RR being basically confscum to Amy Dunne/Dunnstral remains true.)