Micro 1039: The Coalition [game over!]

[Looker]

Do you feel that ProHawk is trying to distract now that he's in a coalition and doesn't have to push his partner into one?

[mc esther]

i dont know. i know ive explicitly scumread him once and implied it a few other times, but there are problems with scum!prohawk (basically, "this almost seems too blatant for scum"). my point with that last comment was more to (a) snap him out of it if he's town, and (b) make it very clear to any players not following too closely that it's simply not true.

if he's scum, i dont think he's certain of his place, and i also believe him when he says he'd try to coalesce with his buddy as scum — im not really sure what play i would expect from this mental model of scum!prohawk. this is part of why im struggling to read him, he's probably the player with the least similar approach to this game from me.

[mc esther]

based on "would try to coalesce with his buddy", i was almost certainly wrong when i called him a potential t3 buddy earlier.

[Umlaut]

We might as well just vote for people at this point, no one is going to come to a consensus.

VOTE: Enchant

we almost literally have galron/looker/enchant locked in — galron imo is clearly gonna come back around on looker, and umlaut's said theyll probably come around on enchant, that's five. the "there's no consensus we cant do it" line of thought only benefits scum here.

Esther calling out what I saw before I could say it.

UNVOTE:
I feel like we have a strong chance of winning this by coalitioning correctly.

[mc esther]

Do you feel that ProHawk is trying to distract now that he's in a coalition and doesn't have to push his partner into one?

i think scum!prohawk is far more likely trying to discourage coalition at all because he sees himself getting locked out of an otherwise all-town coalition, than he is distracting from coalition-building having secured his place. like, again, he hasnt really secured it; he's on three lists, but mbot and t3 are pretty fringe lists that imo arent going to factor into coalition-building. it's hard for me to say for sure that prohawk recognizes this, the things i think are obviously true are things which prohawk borders on disbelieving entirely; but idk lol i think he recognizes this.

[mc esther]

assuming umlaut's also in (bit of an assumption, i admit!) the only real source of friction i see is the fifth slot. looker probably wont let me in, i likely wont let t3/andante/prohawk in, and im pretty sure mbot is gonna be a generally hard sell.

[Looker]

How do you view players whose contributions drop off after they've been coalitioned? Is it alignment-indicative?

[mc esther]

isnt that just, galron?

i dont really view it as alignment-indicative from him, he had some pretty lurky phases as town last game i played with him too. there's a slight difference there in that he made specific complaints about the gamethread in that case, but i dont think that's a huge alignment-differentiating difference.

[T3]

HURT: everyone
HEAL: esther, looker, enchant, umlaut, prohawk
this is where i'm at.

[ProHawk]

I'm pretty sure no one is locked into a coalition until 5 of us heal exactly the same.

[Galron]

vla through 11 January

[Galron]

tbh i wish galron was here so i could sheep him

Sorry! Trying to catch up. Had a long drive yesterday and today.

[Galron]

First of all, Enchant, you are pretty.

Secondly, Looker's theory for not voting himself makes sense. To answer ProHawk, I booted him because in the likely case we don't have a town coalition, we're probably going to start limming within the coalition next phase and I think he's town and he's good at end game. So it was more a safety play than anything. That's one of the things I think we run into here. Getting a town coalition is just a little better than 50% > rand, and I place it higher with the work put into it, but not much higher, so my thinking is even if a town!Looker, a town!Enchant or a Town!t3 gets left out, that's not the end of the world. (I don't really know anyone else) I haven't seen T3's end game as town, but I've seen it as scum and it's pretty strong. So I don't mind leaving two of those three out in the hopes that at least one of them is town. And maybe that's where T3 is going with his coalition proposal by not voting himself in? Enchant, your thoughts on that would be good.

Also what happened to Andante?

[Galron]

I do want to see a VC to see where we're at because a lot of movement has happened since the last one. I think we're going to have to do some negotiating.

[Galron]

isnt that just, galron?

i dont really view it as alignment-indicative from him, he had some pretty lurky phases as town last game i played with him too. there's a slight difference there in that he made specific complaints about the gamethread in that case, but i dont think that's a huge alignment-differentiating difference.

Remind me which game that was. Sorry I don't remember off the top of my head. I do tend to have 2,3,4 days of activity then several with very little because of work kicking my ass.

[mc esther]

cop killer, you kinda dipped out after lickety and roden got fighting

[Galron]

Ahh, yes. In that case that was a part of why I dipped for awhile.

[Galron]

I haven't seen T3's end game as town, but I've seen it as scum and it's pretty strong.

I should've added in here that I assume since he's got a good scum end game he's got a good town end game.

[Galron]

Maybe you then explain, because there's no sense in collecting coalition which will bark off and dismantle from accusations.

yeah, I'll explain eventually, gotta test the waters off what I think, then if it feels like I'm right, I stay where I am and convince you all to sheep me

Well, the water's warm, so...

[mc esther]

i also believe him when he says he'd try to coalesce with his buddy as scum

HEAL: Andante
HEAL: Umlaut
HEAL: MBot
HEAL: ProHawk

Prohawk - Worse than I am on posting and I call BS. I don't buy this “too inebriated to post” nonsense. Maybe its just being retaliatory from 73 but the previous T3 - Superficial posts and grasping at straws. In response to 80 and 81 I was going for those who were not pulling the trigger too soon on alliances. Feels like trolling to me but why?

Why would you not want to be in a coalition with your scum partner?

I would think scum would try to distance at this point to avoid later vote/heal analysis. I could be wrong, which I normally am.

enchant's reaction wasnt great from a "keeping the thread chill" perspective, but i cant see scum in it. like, do you think theyre feigning their frustrations? t3 thinks youre plainly wrong too, why is he not scum?

Ever see scum caught for the wrong reasons?

sorry for quoting that last post in full, but i wanted to emphasize that it does not contain a reason for the prohawk townread.

Yes, YOU. It's ok. Not this game though *patpat*

VOTE: mbot
oh that right okay

This makes it so hard to TR you because there has yet to be a reason. I think its yet another fixation but you do you. The one and only game I played on this site was with T3 and Looker. I'm very obviously a newb and still getting used to figuring out reads without flavor or anything but dialog to go off of. Confidence is not there because when I have been so sure in the past, I'm wrong. Sneaky mafia. All I can do is throw out my gut feels to share where I'm at on reads. I don't often post just to throw out a comment unless I have a valid thought behind it that Id like to share but when I do sit down at a computer, I try to compile it all into posts that will actually share what my thoughts are.

VOTE: Enchant

I'm not liking the posts recently. Gut read SR but whatever. Post 156 didn't make sense to me seeing how the coalitions will be in flux with the more content to use. That should happen since original heals were based on very little. Maybe I get triggered by early "I'm town." statements because.. well.. why? Town knows their town and stating you are town never makes sense to me. Not the best reasoning with the only scum would say they're ok with not being in a coalition. Why in the world would they choose not to try to fudge up more coalition options and keep everyone guessing? The odds of us getting the coalition right is slim. Fingers crossed that we get it right and its game over but with 9 players and only 5 in a coalition, there will obviously be two town at least left out.

HEAL: Mbot
HEAL: Prohawk
HEAL: Looker
HEAL: Umlaut
HEAL: Mc Esther

If T3 could stop being a turd and make actual content posts, that'd be great.

[mc esther]

uh, i meant to add "sorry for quoting that last post in full, but i wanted to emphasize that it does not contain a reason for the prohawk townread." to the end of the message, but somehow accidentally inserted it into the middle of the long quote.

[mc esther]

scum sometimes want to avoid self-healing to avoid being in coalition with their buddy. i dont think that's happened this game though.

Why would you not want to be in a coalition with your scum partner?

because if people start out eliminating within the coalition, both scum in coalition means scum probably gets eliminated d1. they perhaps benefit a little from the ensuring wifom as people ask "so, where's the second? surely they didnt?", but idk lol you really wanna play 1:6?

Unless they hit one and go for outside the coalition next? Yes it increases the first chance of getting caught inside the coalition but then what?

just, for reference on what i was referring to in #251

to expand on the others on prohawk's heallist: umlaut doesnt townread or heal prohawk. i missed that andante does have a similarly arbitrary townread on prohawk, but she also had a townread on prohawk really early in the game, where mbot kinda soft-180s ("soft" in that she stops short of an explicit scumreads, she's just generally pretty skeptical of him; it wasnt hard-scumread to hard-townread). mbot's vote is the one that needs an explanation, which these posts provide; andante's is internally consistent (but vague).

[mc esther]

HURT: everyone
HEAL: Galron, mc esther, Umlaut, Looker, T3

it's umlaut's heal list, i'd prefer enchant over t3, but it doesnt include prohawk/mbot or andante, so i'll take it.

obvs if this goes through, t3 is my vote, though i kinda suspect votes wont matter. i think if he flips scum, it kinda clears prohawk. if we take enchant instead, idk, i'll probably vote umlaut, but it'll be a much harder discussion.

i'd accept enchant over myself or umlaut too.

[Datisi]

prodding Andante.

[Datisi]

~