Mini Normal 2277 - Frog Images (Game Over)

[Ausuka]

Votecount 2.6

Eiralox (4)

- schadd_, Klick, T3, redcardinal

KittyTacky (1)

- Seanzie

Klick (1)

- Haschel Cedricson

redcardinal (1)

- Enchant

schadd_ (1)

- Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (3)

- Eiralox, KittyTacky, Malakittens

With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to decide an elimination. Deadline is in (expired on 2022-08-08 12:11:33).

Mod notes

Please let me know if you notice any errors!

Eiralox is at E-2.

Malakittens was prodded.

[Gamma Emerald]

ok like i think im worn for now but ill continue this.

what i'll say is despite many things i'll place schadd_ above two others for now, cos my hunch rn for the scum team is redcardinal/klick.

but...... like im only at post 224 atm so honest truth this is subject to change. i have other avenues but rn this is the pairing my instincts are leading me to. and this pairing is really something I want Haschel to weigh in on cos like haschel shading is interwined with eira shading among both redcardinal and klick slots as far as im seeing it.

What are you seeing from UD/Klick rn that makes you think this?

[Malakittens]

VOTE: Schadd

[Seanzie]

This Schadd push is interesting. I don't hate it, but I do worry that players like KT/Eira being unresolved will cause issues down the line, but I suppose if Eira can keep up what they've been doing, they can get out of that "hard to read, low content, PoE" area, and also a Schadd scum flip would probably look good for Eira since Schadd has kept a sustained push on them pretty much all game (I'd have to look closely to make sure it isn't just continual distancing, but at least from a superficial level it feels like wolf!Schadd would townspew Eira.

Hopefully town roleblocker will just resolve themself, or minimally now that KT doesn't have a reason to "act scummy" or however they put it anymore, I will be able to find them if they are town.

[redcardinal]

VOTE: schadd

[redcardinal]

I feel day 1 cleared me and to think otherwise looks inherently scummy. but reading the past couple pages, my heart says something else.

[redcardinal]

I am very polite and friendly eiralox thank you for noticing

[Enchant]

I feel day 1 cleared me and to think otherwise looks inherently scummy. but reading the past couple pages, my heart says something else.

Hahahahahahahahah

[redcardinal]

I'm here all week

[redcardinal]

I feel day 1 cleared me and to think otherwise looks inherently scummy. but reading the past couple pages, my heart says something else.

Hahahahahahahahah

did you even ever read d1 enchant

[Enchant]

Of course no

[redcardinal]

ah I see well that makes sense then, carry on

[Enchant]

bruh

[redcardinal]

how do you feel about gamma

[schadd_]

there's two things about casing eiralox for me here. the first is that i'm just a person trying to make deductions here and i have an unavoidably huge chance of being wrong regardless of how convinced i am (which i kind of am). this means that i have to confront this chance that i somehow convince people to go with eiralox today, it turns out that they've been doing all this stuff while town, and then i have to play maybe the most grueling d3 of my life, in which everything i write here becomes fuel for not only the obvious eager wolves but also townies that wanna let the outcome of the game be someone else's fault. that day almost surely ends in me getting executed but i still have a responsibility to play it out, which i will hate doing so much its unreal. i have to be honest and say this is the thing that is most present in my emotional mind, just because in my mafia history it feels there is so few times i've successfully been part of a wolf hunt that panned out & so many times i've felt that i'm just playing to survive and can't count on my reads being good at all. i'd say the reason i'm playing this game is because i like ausuka & i feel like i haven't replaced into games often, but because of the thoughts i've had in the last half hour i think i'm ready to call this game a reason for me not to continue playing mafia.

there's also another thing, which is that i have no fucking idea whether anybody would engage with a post i'm making in this way. i made 1101 which is shorter and whatever & several people indicated that they just dont seem to have any interest in it. so of course there's that constant threat of just like wasting an hour of my life or whatever.

anyway, i think it needs to be said that i'm a bad candidate for execution today. there's one mega-reason which is that i'm town, and if i flip d2 instead of somebody who's mafia (i'll propose eiralox as a pleasant option!), then kittytacky (if he's town) gets killed tomorrow and then town ev shoots down by idk like 30%.

there's one other reason which is that i have been targeted by kittytacky. anybody remember that? in the business they call that a partial innocent. let's consider several cases. one is that kittytacky is lying and i am his partner. i can only assure you that town does not struggle to win the game eventually in that case. kittytacky claimed roleblocker, which is (possibly) confirmable, and in any case makes the game extremely hard for him if he's the only one left, and in that case i wouldnt be a deep enough wolf to prevent him from getting to that point. in the other cases, i got freakin roleblocked! which means if i'm mafia, that means i had to not be the one who did the kill (or kitty's action failed). in something like half of cases, that just means the team had to be less worried that i'd get tracked or blocked or whatever and maybe that doesn't happen very often, i'll leave that up to you the reader. but in another half of cases it's just a matter of which member of the mafia doesn't have a non-multitasking secondary ability. galron didn't flip with one of those, so if one exists they're still alive. moreover if we see a mafia goon flip that is a stronger sign of me being town (idk if that last point means people should approach my slot any differently but if you feel like it does: please don't vote me!)

anyway, i do think eiralox is mafia. i kind of don't wanna settle on a number for the probability. in my mind its been like 60-70%, reading thru their iso just now there's a few statements they've made that counter the reasoning i've idly had in my mind so i guess i would dampen the number or something but it mostly just makes me not want to adhere to one.

let's start with d1, how they talked about galron. there are three such posts:

yeah schadd_ whatever tbh. there's still plenty of time this game im not gonna sheep some1 on sheanzie or galron just to create the illusion that i think there is enough evidence for one of them being scum this early. i'll speak when i have something to say, rn i don't

UNVOTE: Fancy Pants

don't really think i should unvote, but maybe the replace is gonna have more to say than pants did. im out 4 now.

i'll start by saying that i've never felt all that good about interaction-based reads like this. it slightly occurs to me to say that its interesting they put galron second in that list in spite of galron comfortably being the louder wagon but idt thats really anything.

Spoiler: talking abt galron more

also I want literally everyone's take on galron before we even get within one vote of it happening

specifically eateroftime, fancypants replacement, eiralox, and kirigiri. post your hot takes to be rated. no rush eiralox, but I am looking closely at you on this one.

galron is low effort low info low input. i don't see it advancing the game, but i don't see it as scum either this early. it just is and only if it is still is so some days from now will i have any real reason to speak about it. garlon doesn't seem that miffed about the wagon on 'em, i would be active personally if i were at -2 but i would also be wholly dismissive if such a large wagon formed on me so early. i'm also low input low effort rn and it seems from various responses to me low info, so rn meh galron is galron? i never meta so i have no other input i guess.

p-edit: but garlon after logging in now seems to be going after the wagoneers so yeah we'll see i guess.

hmmmmm........ ok for the record i never defended Galron with cres and sean. merely stated that galron is, as hershcel so eloquently put it, a landscape of rainbows ior whatver. does what garlon has done so far seem scummy? yup. Do I, this early in the game, scumread them for it? hell no. i've seen far scummier behavior in early games from other players, so rn, this early, i'm still more than willing to give Galron some rope, even if they end up hanging themselves with it. basically the low input monicker applied to Galron here i'll apply equally to MalaKittens, KittyTacky, UltimateDetectiveKiri, myself and undoubtedly EATEROFTIME. So i'm not planning to jump onto this wagon anytime soon.

And in terms of actual reads: Hell, I still got none. I have one player who, inexplicably, feels scum to me rn, but this is 100% gut and i got no evidence so i won't expand on it rn.

Basically the whole Galron thing.... I think crescent approaches this correctly by analyzing it from the gamma then the lower-posters angle. If you put someone at -2 this early you have to be more proactive in defending why this early imo. Like i stated previously i don't mind lower posters this early, and from experience don't mind them late-game either depending on my feel on them. rn i feel i've invested way too much time on this forum since re-joining so while ill be active and ill try my best i dont think ill be as obsessive as my usual self, not for now at least.

The whole Galron thing begins after Gamma hard scumread Gal on.... page 1? And hard townread Kitty on the same page, with Kitty later voting Gal, hard scumming them iirc. anyway, i would love to see whether galron is gonna deliver on above promises, right now RE: gal im still where i was at, that im not gonna support putting someone at -1 this early. am i defending? no, i'm being prudent and stating why i won't be voting there anytime soon unless something major pings me(which so far hasn't happened, Galron seems disconnected but that can still swing either way in my mind. )

idk, they talked about him a lot and didnt land anywhere. really the only thing that would be scummy about this is that they just seem very compelled to explain why they're not voting him which is a slightly obvious tmi piece regarding one's partner but it kinda makes sense that a given person would want to say a bunch of things abt galron. i guess its also just kind of scummy to think a lot and then not land on a read at that point (i had a similar thought as haschels 260) but it feels like we have more to work with

Spoiler: explicit softball to galron

@Galron

I'm not pressuring u into something here, i just would appreciate some commentary regarding these three below posts, and what you think of the posters themselves considering their behavior throughout the day. I think, seeing as these three are not currently voting you but do seem open to the idea, that your survival is likely at stake here. so ur choice tbh

Galton made 7 posts in a row and they all said absolutely nothing, then he proceeded to.. "lol" when asked to give actual content?

Galton is exuding quite an impressive level of don't give a shit here. People have brought up other games of his: Is there any precedent for him acting this way?

Galron’s not giving a shit is just very fake and it seems like Galron is scum desperately trying to shake the ‘deer in headlights’ label that Gamma gave him. Just saying ‘Lol’ when asked to give reads is obviously not pro-town. The town thing to do here is to actually try and find reads?

I can't tell if gamma is confbiasing or wolf. Seems he decided I was scum after fewer than 10 words.

Not the first time though.

I really, really, really dislike Galron’s tone here. Like there’s not much of an attempt to defend himself, he just brushes it off while trying to not seem like he’s cracking under pressure.

I see Galron as someone who barely cares about the game already. Posting 10 vague comments at once with sprinklings of content is a pretty easy way to build up a post count without doing much (He's now #4 in the game but not much in the way of actual content).

But I also question the train because 3 of the 5 people in his vote don't really have any particularly strong reason to be there, and two of those people are semi-inactive at best. One hasn't even posted in over 24 hours.


It would be kinda fun to just hop on and throw caution to the wind for once, I guess, but I am generally not a rash player at all.

the thing about it is i have this sinking feeling that this is like a townie who is thinking of punishing everyone for voting a low content slot, or like otherwise proceeding out of spite. one does have to consider that openly refusing to budge on or really address the large amt of people voting them, but (just to articulate it for myself!) i do get the strong feeling that they're scum who doesn't know where to go from here, maybe thinks something like "once i start having to pretend to scumhunt everybody is gonna use terms like 'TMI' and 'fake' at me and its gonna suck so bad". galron if youre scum that is probably true yes. and then also you just vote out people who dont play mafia

i dont make much of this either (i think its reasonable from either town or mafia) but it's one of a lot of things they dont ever really follow up on. but also it just seemed like they didnt really have a lot of time to do that in this case, they just posted once after seeing the next time he came back.

they make a few more posts that i'd say boil down to farting around and being present. it occurs to me to say that there's a tmi element of knowing that the flip is going to be important and just wanting to be present for it one way or another.

ok so Galron as at elim -1 again? sorry i'm tied up with other stuff and really haven't analyzed these past pages thus far. what i'll say is, meh, i hope Galron is scum.

p-edit: nvm that seems to be a hammer lol. ugh let's see what fate decrees then.

this post in particular read as scummy to me, although it was a little more so when i hadnt noticed that they did say "yes i think galron is scummy by play but i don't think thats enough to go on yet", because "i hope galron is scum" just doesnt make sense to say unless you like think its a significant possibility, but it is something you want to say if your goal is to be like "wahaha look at me idk how this flip is gonna go".


ok, onto what i think is the main thing here which is the way they have invisibly changed some stances. the thing that i've talked about and is naturally most glaring to me is their bizarre reading of my slot.

Spoiler:

in particular i'd say eiralox feels a lot like how i'd play scum, especially when i wasn't feeling comfortable with it, which is just kind of placing down statements in a vacuum and hoping to avoid having to follow up on them or talk about them in context. the thing with 826 and 836 is a lot like that, like theoretically there is truth to the first statement that they go badger mode (maybe when they are town!) but when people pressed them to talk about how it might apply in reality to this game they pretty clearly seemed to just duck the question

heres reality: theres been no push on me. u like to delude urself that u did but all uve basically dun is call me wolf for my low levelz of giving a fuck, with a lot of words but basically saying the same thing, wheras seanzie is being similar but mostly approaching it from a passive aggressive angle with my vote on em ,,,,,, so u wanna see my badger mode so badly game up and get me to -2. otherwise i dont see why i have to waste time on weakwater gossip-garnering. and i aint gonna. im glacially coming to a point where i can place a few folk in the totem cubbies i got carved out . thats not on ur schedule, or the way u want it. its my way, my terms. aint happy? 2 bad.

i dont duck shit lines of inquiry, instead i utterly avoid em. no point. u voted me.... what? page 2? 1? rvs after fancypants vote. any1 can go through ur iso and see, what ur saying here, me walking in the dark or being uncomf. or whatver..... yeah thats me dumb eira the obv scum who's begging for sweet release lol. like i would totally be voting seanzie here as scum right?

i never saw a push from u on me that was in any way impressive. throughout day1 you dodged and dived past and through the galron thing but kept that vote on me, nice and tidy, no heavy push on eira but soft hintings and whispering and so on. ur d1, for me at least, and even taking into account my own disengagemnet, is a boat loada nothing 2 me. only now d2 r u vaguely becoming more townish but heck out of a lot of folk i wont mind hunting u as scum. but rn i got nothing solid. so ...... i'm out.

this is their first time really addressing my push on them. two things stand out, which is that they claim my reasons for voting them are ridiculous, "shit lines of inquiry". the second thing is that they sort of bite back by criticizing the way that i voted them instead of galron. apparently at some point during d1 they thought that the way i was playing it was wolfy but if you take away the fact that ostensibly as town they wouldn't know galron was a wolf, it's just the fact that i was voting them, and they don't seem to have anything else to say.

three more people vote them, and then later we have these

like i think ur a loon for tunneling me since page 1 but rn i got bigger fish to fry. maybe ill vote u if u get annoying enough again ; )

the only vote on me that il humor rn and say doesnt feel full scum is Schadd_'s cos at least they have the excuse that theyve been building to it. not that i townread schadd more than u.

it's like an inkling of a re-evaluation that i don't know where it comes from. town are allowed to re-evaluate reads, yes. but as they said i was being annoying. if they're town they're in a frustrating position of having someone tunnel them, and they seemed very convinced that that person's reasons were poorly conceived, which is something it's like hard to dislodge in one's mind in my experience. and then they just flip on that very notion, and go further:

There are only two worthy votes on me: T3 and Schadd_ . Both have valid reasons and I townread them for it.

schadd_'s analysis of me is 80% tru excepting them tunneling me as wolf, so im ok with that vote

and like looking at what they said in the interim 48 hours it's hard to find the thoughts behind this transformation. and it's not even clear exactly what changed. as i said 1089 is like bizarreㅡit seemed like they ended up being fine with the fact that i was voting them d1, but then it seemed like they saw something that was consistent with something they said earlier that opens up the possibility of them getting to vote me and then win.

in my mind what happened is something that's odd to do as town and could reasonably come from the difficulty as scum in dealing with a tunnel on you that seems to be landing, and a desire to try different things that would make it stop as well as leave open options. what i don't really get is a progression that makes sense to me.

i'm gonna click post here but probably keep writing. mostly this thing above is something that i havent seen anyone address and i wonder if there's a way it makes more sense to people and i'm just misreading it by being on the receiving end or something

[Enchant]

Achoo~

Ah, damn that allergy on big messages

[Enchant]

I THINK GAMMA TOWN

[T3]

I THINK GAMMA TOWN

Why?

[T3]

I do agree that Eiralox’s progression on me and schadd is pretty terrible but I did like their recent posting. When I’ve slept for more than a few hours I’ll analyze Eiralox’s posts more in depth.

[redcardinal]

if it helps schadd I read your post and the one you mentioned. your words matter and have an impact here, going to reread later today when I have more time and give some thoughts

[redcardinal]

notably I forgot kt said he roleblocked you

[T3]

schadd does seem awfully calm for someone 30% sure they’re going to play a nightmarish day 3.

[schadd_]

and like looking at what they said in the interim 48 hours it's hard to find the thoughts behind this transformation. and it's not even clear exactly what changed.

in the more recent pieces from the quote walls:

i do also think eiralox is a wolf, who i'm voting rn

this late in, still the rvs vote, thinks im scum. fair maybe, like follow ur heart or whatever,

[...]

umm they really didnt do any scumhunting

hmmm ok reasonable but also a very lazy read imo. i was low effort d1 so rn im declining 2 comment in a substantial manner.

these are just like things that they would have had to think about already in order to get to their thoughts on how i was voting them d1. but like the wording and the inconclusiveness doesn't reflect that.

just another piece regarding the quote walls: if the posts themselves simply seem townie i guess i wouldnt have a way to argue with it & wouldn't be primed to pick up on it if it were true. it looks like they come up with a few novel ideas and stuff. but chatting about old posts is a pretty safe way to just get some stuff out when you're mafia. old posts don't fight back. you sort of have permission to look at them in a vacuum and not be required to build up grander progressions and sophisticated thoughts about them. the thing both gamma & t3 said abt them (1106 & 1124) is that they dont have an agenda, but idk, town has agendas. and it seemed like they came away from the posts with like a scumread they already had (on klick) and a new (?) scumread on redcardinal (the redcardinal thing seemed like it was based partly on galron-independent stuff, and at the time those posts were taken from it seemed like they thought there was a dearth of read-generative content per 201. there's a lot of possible explanations for that though and it also seemed like they were just busy at the start of the game)

just tangentially, i know that whenever you case someone like this you hold them to a higher standard of e.g. consistency and like Doing Town Stuff and i really wouldnt mind criticisms of my thinking along those lines

[schadd_]

if it helps schadd I read your post and the one you mentioned. your words matter and have an impact here, going to reread later today when I have more time and give some thoughts

thanks. i guess i ended up being less steamed than at the beginning

schadd does seem awfully calm for someone 30% sure they’re going to play a nightmarish day 3.

well, i was planning a section where i complain about the people that voted me but i wanted to start talking about eiralox to get the thoughts down and then got to the part where i clicked post. i got really pissed off at mala voting me.

[schadd_]

i guess theres this other thing which is that, if i'm mafia then presumably i have a 100% chance of having a nightmarish d3, or maybe i'm like bussing my partner to get that all done with a stray roleblocker around. or maybe you're just saying i'm pretending with the whole thing. Im not