Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[Bingle]

Page get

[Umlaut]

I really like this idea, I'm in. I'm gonna let the math champs confirm what list each of us should do before I start

Maybe Merlyn is just scum? I'm not sure I even like this idea and I'm the one who thought of it (but is now dreading actually doing all this homework).

[Merlyn]

I just like being told what to do

[Merlyn]

A bit more seriously: it is a good idea,some sleuthing actually based in fact, and if the only pushback is laziness, I'd still rather do it. I don't really get how it's a ton of work- it's reading 12 convos.

[Datisi]

vote count 3.01

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2023-07-18 14:00:00).

yeet

Doctor Drew [1]:

Radical Rat

Umlaut [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

not voting [7]:

Invisibility, Ausuka, Doctor Drew, Merlyn, Firebringer, Umlaut, Bingle

mod notes

this is a mod note.

flavour

[Bingle]

A bit more seriously: it is a good idea,some sleuthing actually based in fact, and if the only pushback is laziness, I'd still rather do it. I don't really get how it's a ton of work- it's reading 12 convos.

Done properly it’s a bit more. You want to look at voting records, the pressure level on the players while they were having conversations, etc. my usual modus operandi when doing this is read thread, read the scummiest iso, read joint iso of scummiest and first, etc. it also helps against bias to do it that way since your weakest scumreads will have the strongest recency bias.

[Umlaut]

I just like being told what to do

Have to admit I really like this response though. I know townreading flippancy is facile but it's hard to just turn off.

[Firebringer]

@mod: V/LA for next 2 days. Currently sick

[Ausuka]

uwu

idk i think invis is probably the most likely candidate but i'm really not confident in anything lmao

[Ausuka]

I was instinctively opposed to the scumteams idea but actually like, whatever I don't have anything better and maybe I will have some new epiphany when I read.

Briefly covering the scumteams I have


Invisibility/umlaut - 141 can be a team, i think scum are likely to do early kind-of-distancing stuff. Could the stuff about invis asking bella why she suspects invis and umlaut be a scumteam? Eh maybe, i just had a game where scum literally claimed their partner on page 1 so. 1293 is arguably not a scumteam but if i'm an invisibility/umlaut scumteam in this situation i think 'fuck it we bus' is a pretty reasonable approach to take and hope people realise umlaut has no partners? Overall, it is possible this scumteam exists but there's not that much compelling evidence for it

Invisibility/radical rat - There isn't really much here. I guess rat going out of their way to deconstruct the idea from Drew that invis is scum-signalling is like... Probably less likely to be teamed because I think it's at least counterintuitive to do that.

invisibility/sheep - sheep townreading invis and then trying to kill her towards the end of day 1 is kinda the opposite of the trajectory i'm looking for, I don't see this as a likely team right now

invisibility/bingle - the interactions between these two don't look great. invis votes bingle sporadically but near deadline would rather do merlyn. Bingle really does not want to kill invis. this could be a team but shrug i don't really think bingle is scum. Even so if bingle is scum i would bet it's probably with exactly invis

drew/merlyn - "Merlyn, I hope you are here.....you voted me but really haven't mentioned me as of late." this can be a scumteam line. The merlyn push on drew also seems pretty scum-team-able since the drew pushing didn't really happen in the business end of d1. Seems pretty dubious of merlyn d1 but doesn't vote her during the whole WAGON MERLYN moment. Dctively goes out of his way to push her d2 and merlyn is also like "Drew is sooooo sus guys" but meh again if you're drew and merlyn I can kind of see that approach as a sort of hail mary. This is another 'can be the team' moment

drew/sheep - the way drew is really insistent he doesn't know who sheep replaced makes these two easier to see as partners. Drew hard townreading sheep seems like a fairly reasonable approach to take, doesn't want to vote cook. On the other hand sheep's 'park on drew' moment towards the end of day 1 is pretty unpartnered - iirc there was a genuine threat to drew in this time and the push feels pretty genuine to me - so I don't think this is it?

drew/fb - GeorgeBailey? the drew iso doesn't have much, but fb insisting drew is town and then softing out of it at the end of day 1 and pledging to vote drew if the cards fall that way (by saying he wants to vote drew or black) doesn't really feel like something scum would do; i think he can get away with just not pretending he's willing to vote drew - it's not like drew is ever going to flip without him - and i think firebringer as a player is too bold to hedge on that when it hurts him in this situation.


drew/rat - My gut says the way drew townreads rat doesn't really feel like pocketing, particularly 463 and the violence with which rat has pushed drew makes very little sense coming from partners; it's not much use distancing if you lose the game as soon as drew dies, and rat like... doesn't really need to do this? like, if i'm in rat's position, i never push drew like they have, so shrug this is the first one i'm comfortable ruling out.

ok i'm done whee. I feel like marginally better informed

[Bingle]

I theoretically could do the thing and do this tonight, but I found out my schedule for the near future is 5 tens a week and then stayed two hours after I was supposed to clock out. Also the weather is in the triple digits. I'm gonna play some Viva Pinata and chill, deal with it nerds.

[Datisi]

prodding Invisibility, sheepsaysmeep, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew.

apologies for slow mod action, i'm currently battling a stomach flu.

[Invisibility]

hi guys what's up
I only did a little bit of my homework and I'm going to get an F in fire and more fire class
VOTE: Drew I don't townread this slot and I think we need to like threaten someone for scum to not just be satisfied letting town stew in its ennui

[Doctor Drew]

Sorry about that, been having a few mental health days, be back in a few hours.

[Radical Rat]

I'm here, sorry. Don't really have much to say until I can get to my computer, which was supposed to be today, but is apparently not anymore.

If it takes too much longer, I'll try to do it from my phone anyway, but it might be sloppily formatted

[Radical Rat]

For context, my air conditioner is broken, and I live in Texas. So it's been upwards of 90 degrees inside my home, including the room that holds my computer, and that's just... not happening, for both my safety and my computer's. We bought a portable air conditioner to cool off a room and make it survivable, but that room is not my room.

[Merlyn]

Christ that sounds intolerable. Stay safe RR

[sheepsaysmeep]

prodding Invisibility, sheepsaysmeep, Radical Rat, Doctor Drew.

apologies for slow mod action, i'm currently battling a stomach flu.

get well soon

[Bingle]

I can't decide whether you should live or die

Game advancing content.

[Firebringer]

No one wished me to get better

[Firebringer]

{Doctor Drew, Merlyn}; {sheepsaysmeep, Umlaut}; {Merlyn, Bingle}; {Invisibility, Merlyn}; {sheepsaysmeep, Radical Rat}; {Ausuka, Merlyn}; {Invisibility, sheepsaysmeep}; {sheepsaysmeep, Bingle}

ill take a look at one of these pairings today.
DD and Melyn seem spicy lets iso them together and see what we find

[Doctor Drew]

No one wished me to get better

GEORGE BAILEY

[Bingle]

Invisibility
Firebringer
Ausuka
Radical Rat
sheepsaysmeep
Doctor Drew
Merlyn
Umlaut

Alright, I'm doing the thing. RR guilted me out over having access to AC.

Umlaut Pairs:

Vïzzy

Highly Implausible: I don't think 137 is a Umlaut/Vizzy team. If Merlyn read is fabricated, it's an awkward thing to be chainsawing this early. It's notable that Vizzy and Umlaut never really interact, even when discussing tangential things. They were expressing opposite opinions on the me/osuka dynamic concurrently, but didn't even talk to each other about why they had pretty much opposite reads of the situation. Could be intentional as a distancing tool, especially if Umlaut expected :this: from me, but probably not. This is just a strange way to treat your scumbuddy, and I don't think the 5D chess move of just hard ignoring your partner because only awkward newbscum would do that comes from Vizzy. 1047 is also pretty hard evidence that Umlaut isn't scum with Vizzy. Umlaut is setting up a lim pool of four people including Vizzy if I flip town, and I get the feeling Umlaut's townread on me here is genuine. It's an awkward thing to put your partner in a very shallow lim pool for functionally no reason. 1293 in the wake of a spur of activity from Umlaut that is definitely designed to generate towncred if scum is also just a super awkward way to get in the way of your partner. Additionally, there is a marked difference in the way these two interact between D1 and D2 which suggests to me that one party learned something about the other. The only thing that could have been learned was that the other was town.

GeorgeBaïley:

Unlikely- Umlaut ignoring FB and FB ignoring Umlaut is definitely something I would expect of them. Both would be reasonably sure the other would be able to cope with a light pressure and as such they wouldn't have to song and dance very hard. Taking up contradictory stances about me isn't outside of their wheelhouse either. I still don't think it particularly likely that Um tries to limit the lim pool to a group that contains his buddy, so that's a point in favor of dismissing this pair. 618 and 643 are like the same post (obviously not, but if you look at them you should pick up what I'm putting down) and scum doesn't usually borrow content from their buddy like that. They're usually pretty careful to make points that are legally distinct from their buddy. It's also a weird tack for a team to take for one of them to push me D1 and just kinda drop it D2 and the other to weak defend me D1 and turn it into a policy lim push D2. Like... It's just awkward. If Umlaut is scum, FB is probably a vote that was relied on for pushing through my lim on D2 easily and FB didn't have to not provide it.

Aüsuka

:nuh-uh.gif: 230 is kinda partnery here, actually. Umlaut is undermining Ausuka's push while still making AusukaIsTown noises. 407 could be a distancing shitpush, but I'm more inclined to believe it was an attempt to pocket me if it came from scum, particularly since there was actual follow through. Obligatory "Does Umlaut really put a group of 4 on the chopping block if one of those heads is his own?" callout. The page 38 back and forth doesn't feel partnery at all. Like... It's unnecessary and boring and pointless and I think usually theater has some kind of point behind it. Ausuka not being on me D2 when she could've been is another antipartner bit here, just like it was for Furbrunger earlier. 1280 takes it a step farther by undermining Umlaut's narrative. 1345 is very antipartner. I feel very confident that this is not an S/S.

Rät

The approaches to the me wagon here are complimentary af, but they never actually agree with the reasons the other gives to townread me. I could easily see this as a team that didn't want me gone in the case that I was scum, and I don't think either Rat or Umlaut is confident in their ability to pick out my scumgame in a lineup. 471 is like a textbook buddy read. "Hey, person is v town, but look at how I'm not townreading them b/c I'm PaRAnoID" is a very safe tack to take if you know the person you're potentially alienating by withholding the townread is gonna have your back. It also helps to build a "Player is town" feeling that doesn't necessarily trace back to you easily. And then they're back to talking around wagons. The E-2 on Umlaut in 1350 is hesitance and I should probably look deeper into whether that was a legitimate risk or a reasonable bus, but I'm already starting to burn out. I do see that it stopped fairly quickly.

Shïp
Dr:
Merlïn

I'll pick this up at Ratlout part 2 when I get less tired of doing this.

[Bingle]

No one wished me to get better

I hope you get worse, filthy dogbeast.

[Firebringer]

Spoiler: Boring analysis

So early game they don't talk a whole lot to each other. Which is fine.

My gut feeling when I do see an interaction like in 310 where meryln votes drew. This doesn't seem like a bussing vote to me, in fact if anything looks more likely a scum voting town giving easy out to move it and more like rvs.

And don't think they are teammates with 665 this took a long time but usually i don't call out a teammate vote on me like this, usually ignore it completely or address it right away, drew took awhile here.
666 again could see this being argued meryln voting townie or "meh" reading townie. Not very good partner interaction. Feel pretty confident in that right now

727 much more into the territory of scumreading drew from meryln with this one....I guess this one could give me pause to a small bussing attempt. It lowers my confidence by 2%

731 drew again interacting with meryln not how buddy would i think.

Theres a few more posts of them interacting but im good here saying this isn't the team and will get to another team i was assigned to tomorrow.

Conclusion: Not the

Father

Scum Team