Also tonight I'll confirm whether or not I was pinned all three nights or if Cakez is probably a true ascetic. If I do get a clear, I won't claim it until necessary
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
Supoose that you're right, that Skygazer is unlikely to fakeclaim neighbor.
How does this relate to her being town? She may be more likely to be town, yes, but as you yourself have shown with Jacob, unlikely things can and do happen.
Unfortunately for you, the team what wants to vote you out
Also, and maybe this is a Drew read(err, Asclepius read), but it feels to me that this wagon kinda stagnating and even people hopping off makes me feel like scum thought the wagon would naturally dissipate.......but lack of activity these past few days have forced the hand of the members of scum to leave the wagon to make sure their buddy is not limmed.
Like, usually an early day wagon doesn't stick, so no need for scum to worry too much.......but this one has stuck, with no real counter wagon.
This obviously is only relevant if Sky is Team Scumbutt, but just was something I was thinking about at work today.
-Asclepius
How is this a sticky wagon? It formed like a day ago
I feel like there is usually a point in Sky's town games where she buckles down and really starts to think critically about the game. I haven't seen that at all here. She's just coasting
Like I think sky posts reactively a lot but when she's town there's usually a moment where she feels guilty about not doing anything and then starts to be proactive for a bit before she slides off into obscurity again. I've seen it after her being pushed before but she got to e-1 and she's still just lurking around
In post 1403, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
How does this relate to her being town? She may be more likely to be town, yes, but as you yourself have shown with Jacob, unlikely things can and do happen.
I believe Skygazer is town and I'm seeing my strongest town-read disagree completely with me so I'm talking about it. I can't convince her that I'm right (or her convince me that she's right) if we just throw the weight of the entire case at each other because we're both independently biased, that doesn't work. So I'm trying to pull it apart as best I can
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
In post 1403, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
How does this relate to her being town? She may be more likely to be town, yes, but as you yourself have shown with Jacob, unlikely things can and do happen.
I believe Skygazer is town and I'm seeing my strongest town-read disagree completely with me so I'm talking about it. I can't convince her that I'm right (or her convince me that she's right) if we just throw the weight of the entire case at each other because we're both independently biased, that doesn't work. So I'm trying to pull it apart as best I can
Adding to this. She believes it's scum!AI when I disagree so I'm talking about it
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
I was so scared that I would do all that math and counting the roles thread, for a hammer to just be placed and have me delete all the work I was doing lmfao
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
Wrong. Jackson correctly calculated the odds of a particular person being a neighbor of a certain alignment (I assume, I didn't double-check the specific math) and then kept spinning the numbers into the overall odds of drawing a neighbor role using the total number of players, which is irrelevant here. We're not talking about the odds of
someone
in the game getting a neighbor role, we're talking about the odds of
Skygazer
getting one as a certain alignment. Which apparently is 3/86 as town, 2/26 as Mafia OR 1/25 as Werewolf. So like I said, notably higher likelihood of it being Mafia.
In post 1403, Jake The Wolfie wrote:
How does this relate to her being town? She may be more likely to be town, yes, but as you yourself have shown with Jacob, unlikely things can and do happen.
I believe Skygazer is town and I'm seeing my strongest town-read disagree completely with me so I'm talking about it. I can't convince her that I'm right (or her convince me that she's right) if we just throw the weight of the entire case at each other because we're both independently biased, that doesn't work. So I'm trying to pull it apart as best I can
Adding to this. She believes it's scum!AI when I disagree so I'm talking about it
I don't think the claim is scum indicative, I was just wondering why it had to be a true claim. I thought there were scum exclusive roles so if she is scum and has one then she would have to fake claim something, but I could be wrong. I can't look at the list atm
In post 1414, Argonauts wrote:
And frankly the "odds don't matter, oh no a hammer intent waaaaaait stop let me calculate the odds!!!" comes off pretty desperate.
-Atalanta
Bitch please, I was excited and didn't want that to go nowhere
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
In post 1414, Argonauts wrote:
And frankly the "odds don't matter, oh no a hammer intent waaaaaait stop let me calculate the odds!!!" comes off pretty desperate.
-Atalanta
I could see Jackson scum if sky flips scum. It's more of a tinfoil though
Wrong. Jackson correctly calculated the odds of a particular person being a neighbor of a certain alignment (I assume, I didn't double-check the specific math) and then kept spinning the numbers into the overall odds of drawing a neighbor role using the total number of players, which is irrelevant here. We're not talking about the odds of
someone
in the game getting a neighbor role, we're talking about the odds of
Skygazer
getting one as a certain alignment. Which apparently is 3/86 as town, 2/26 as Mafia OR 1/25 as Werewolf. So like I said, notably higher likelihood of it being Mafia.
-Atalanta
Care to explain why it's irrelevant? Because I disagree entirely, the raw chances are shown better when taken into consideration repeated events. Sure, the odds are great and all but like does 3/86 mean anything to you? There's no equal comparison there because the amount of roles in each faction are so different from each other, so I made them equal and fair based on the amount of roles possible AND the amount of roles that we're dealing with (10v3v1)
"Am I a ghost like you, caught between the seams of two intertwining melodies?"
I don't see how Skygazer fake claims neighbor as SK, sure. It would be very risky.
But as mafia? There are three public claims on the thread and if he is mafia, he mostly knows their viability. He could have a partner who is a sole neighbor as mafia. He could be a mafia PR who knows the roles of other town players. He could've just rolled the dice and taken the odds no one is a neighbor. Or he could be town.
The claim is NAI. Rest is all WIFOM and an easy point for scum to deflect/push the wagon. And where the fuck is Shaddow?
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile")
