NY135: Sexy Sedilla Semi-Open - Town Wins

[mastin2]

Whoah. Replacing

Ythan

?!? Oh, boy.

I've been reading along, but obviously fell behind after I went V/LA. What page was I on? Think it was 22, or something around that.

[mastin2]

Further than I thought. 27. Caught up, now. But, uh, will need to reread to get stronger, well, reads. I had thoughts in my head about certain interactions, but I've forgotten them. (Rereading tends to jumpstart said thoughts.)

Unvote, Vote: Untrod Tripod

.

The reason why is in my notes, so I'll explain after I've done a reread to see if what I caught onto is valid.

[mastin2]

'Cause the scumteam is obviously Quillford (Emp), Ythan (M2), Mask (Sap), and Para (Yos), duh!

[mastin2]

(*is working*)

[mastin2]

I'm working on the assumption of four scum--does this number seem wrong to anyone?
*Is working on a little bit of setup speculation*

[mastin2]

He's one of the Masons. Confirmed town.

On a side-note, I'm treating this game essentially as a Mini (just with one extra scum). Thirteen suspects, when you do the math.

[mastin2]

I'm gonna try something.

-Read first five pages.
-Read last five pages.
-Read through The Haystack. (ISO predecessor.)
-Read through the IOSs of my suspects. (Since by this point, I should have the thirteen narrowed down to about half of that.)
-Read the whole thread.

In that order. That ought to get me fully into the game. Switch from Spectator Mode to Player Mode.

[mastin2]

Vote: The Mask

Cause obviously scum cover their faces. Also first on the list!

Since we're voting in circles,

vote: Parabollocks

....... uh oes.

Unnecessary amount of explanation for RVs. Eeny, meeny, miny,

vote The Mask

Ironically enough, by the way, this is exactly what I was saying in my notes.
Gotta love replacing someone who has reads similar to your own.

[mastin2]

Heh. It couldn't be that easy, could it?

Having done only THREE pages, I can tell you:

Îdher and Swag are both likely town. Para (and therefore Yosarian2) is town. Oversoul and Quillford are both town, too.

That narrows the scum list down to this:

01. saporovirus The Mask (replaced out D1)
05. Knight of Cydonia
06. kanyeknowsbest
08. Hiraki
09. SpyreX
12. Untrod Tripod x
13. Chair (implosion + Misder)
16. kunkstar7

These eight names contain our scum. And narrowing it down a little further...

-Weak town-read on Hiraki.
-Scum reads on UT (strong), Kayne (weak), KoC (weak), Mask/Sapo (mid), and Chair (mid-strong).
(Which, if you do the math, translates to the remaining two names--kunkstar7 and SpyreX--as being null.)

[mastin2]

Oh, and for the record. The two weak reads (KoC and Kayne) are created through two different methods. KoC is pretty much pure Gut. Kayne is a little more logical. (Well...Mastin Logical, at least. )

[mastin2]

By the end of four, I'm more confident in Hiraki as town, and also am thinking logically (again, this is "Mastin Logic" >_<) that KoC is town.
I'm also of the belief that {KoC, Kayne} are of mutually exclusive alignments. (Which, therefore, means my scumread on Kayne grows as my scumread in KoC is reversed.)

[mastin2]

Done with first five. Tempting to read further, but I'm going to stick with the plan. 24-29. (30 is pretty much all me. ) Predecessor. Suspects. Full game. Maybe VCA after that.

This game is going to be fun.

[mastin2]

Actually, I'll go back a page further. 23.

Additionally--while I'm far from positive about this--I believe either Yosarian2 or Empking are our lead wagons. (Possible both are.) This does not amuse me. (See: my town-reads on their predecessors.)

[mastin2]

Eventually?

I kinda am, in a way. I have raw thoughts in my notes. I then post the conclusions from said raw notes. The conclusion from the conclusion is likely what you're wanting. And I think that--now that the first five (most important, by the way) pages are out of the way, for the moment--I'll be posting less.

[mastin2]

I don't wall, T-Bone. Not consciously, anyway. (Refer to my sig. )

I'm still workin'.

[mastin2]

You are a Mafia #-shot Bookie!

Your teammates are (PLAYERNAMES). Each night, you may select a player. If that player is lynched the next day, you may perform an extra kill in addition to your factional the following night.

^Why do I get the impression Empking is scum waiting to guess correctly? >_<

Have read page 33, but I haven't finished my notes, nor am caught up. Will get back to you within a couple hours.

[mastin2]

youre joking right? you honestly believe that empking just happened to "forget" his kill especially with his town confirmation depending on it? thats impossible. there are two possibilities: empking is town (not a vig) pulling some sort of gambit, or hes scum who thought his lynch was imminent and decided to guarantee his lynch the next day by fakeclaiming something he knew would get him lynched. further, it doesn't make any sense to me that scum would not have killed him last night if his claim had any chance of being true due to fear that he may have been fibbing about how many shots he had.

Vote: Kayne

.

Might change after I stop slacking off, but I'm a bit preoccupied at the moment.

I haven't read Kayne-Chair. But my gut is telling me it's not townVtown. My reads yesterday said it was scumVscum. I really need to finish things. My head's not in the game, yet, and I know for a fact that when I get my head into the game, I pwn scum.

[mastin2]

Oops. Coulda SWORN I had posted...

[mastin2]

Yeah, he's scum.

[mastin2]

And not the Bookie, but the scum DO have a Bookie. Who targeted him.

This stuff all becomes obvious within five seconds of seeing Empking's hammer.

Also, Hiraki's town.

[mastin2]

I maintain 1-2 scum are in
01. saporovirus The Mask (replaced out D1)
05. Knight of Cydonia
06. kanyeknowsbest x
^Those names.

It wouldn't surprise me if Empking had all (or all minus one) of his scumteam on him.

[mastin2]

Hiraki, do you hate newbs?

They seem to frequently be your top suspects.

Oversoul's obv-town.

[mastin2]

On my desktop right now, so I'm away from my notes. (They're on my laptop.) Will return and consult the notes. But for the moment? {SpyreX, Chair}, and {Kayne, Yosarian} looks like it's one scum in each group.

Definitely 1-2 scum in those four.

[mastin2]

Yos, I want to believe you. So,

Vote: Kayne

.

[mastin2]

That being said; can you explain why you thought Quilford was town on day 1, Mastin?

Dunno. My notes say simply, "Oversoul and Quilford are both town, by the way." Nothing more.

If I had to guess, it's likely an early post or two from Quilford. That's generally the kind of thing which makes me say that sort of statement.

[mastin2]

It could be 42/43, the way they confirmed which did it. (Tone.) Might have been 69. Could be overall play from them. (Like Oversoul's 49 didn't look like a scum move.) Heck, it could have been gut. (Almost certainly not, but possible.)

Quite frankly, I don't remember.

I do think it was early-game, though. Likely first five pages.

[mastin2]

Then vote.

Also,

Mod: V/LA Friday until Monday

.

[mastin2]

I'd be willing to wagon Chair.

[mastin2]

Kayne has three votes by my count right now.
Chair has two.

Is there anyone here who strongly disagrees with one of those two being our lynch today?

[mastin2]

I feel like Mastin has been awfully quiet this game, but he’s also been quite V/LA soooo…. /null opinion

Indeed. (Sucks. I wanna play in some games, but can't because, well, y'know, overstretching is bad.) It'll be happening again, for the record, pretty soon. (Less so, in that I'll have access every day. Just said access will be from 10 PM until 6 AM, so I'll be posting at the times nobody is on.)

Skimming the P40 walls, since I'm just now back. I maintain SpyreX/Chair isn't townVtown (small chance of scumVscum, even). Not sure about Yos2/Zepher. Gut says Zepher is town for mistakenly thinking two scumteams, if I'm reading the "scum, other scum" part of his post correctly.

[broken record]/Will be giving more when I have access to my notes.[/broken record]

[mastin2]

Scum: Saporovirus, Mastin, Yosarian
Other scum: Kanye, Idher, Kunkstar
Null: Spyrex, Chair
Townier than null: KoC, Oversoul

^That.

[mastin2]

Like I said. It's obviously wrong, but unless I misread it, it's a town-slip. (Since scum obviously would know there weren't two scumteams.)

[mastin2]

I'd lean that way too but its soo strange it bothers me intrinsically (like the Idher business).

Lines like these are why you're not on my town-list, Spy.

...And quite frankly are in the suspect list. (See: "Chair/Spy not townVtown".)

[mastin2]

Tone, Spy.
It's off for you.

Your tone, doesn't seem right.

[mastin2]

I suppose.

[mastin2]

"I'm looking into it tonight."
"I'm looking into it."
"I'll get back to you after I look into it."

...How many people are actually paying attention to this game?!? >_< (I realize I am theoretically among those names. )
Still think Zepher's town, though not as much as before.

[mastin2]

{SpyreX,

Chair

}, and {Kayne, Yosarian} looks like it's one scum in each group.

^That's what I meant.

I disagree with Kunk. Generally, scum tend to spread the names out as evenly as possible. One in scum (theoretically, Yos2, possibly Kunk--but it is possible this one's all town), one in null (If Yos2 is town, Chair. My second guess, Kayne), and one in town. (Let's include "really town" as well. My guess here is either KoC or Spy, but it's depending on the lower tier of Null. Chair-->more likely KoC, Kayne-->more likely Spy.)

Additionally, I still maintain that the Emp lynch probably contained two scum. (Potentially three, but doubtful that they'd risk it all.)
{SpyreX, Knight of Cydonia,

T-Bone

, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2,

Oversoul, Hiraki

, saporovirus}
And 'coincidentally', pretty much all of my suspects are in there, too. The only one absent is Chair.

[mastin2]

Put briefly:

TOWN:
02. MrZepher x Swag136 (force-replaced and blacklisted D1)
07. Îdher (Amrun + Ether hydra) x | x
15. Oversoul x

NULL
01. saporovirus x | x The Mask (replaced out D1) (town-lean)
16. kunkstar7 x (?)

SUSPECT:
05. Magister Ludi Knight of Cydonia (replaced out D3) (

Formerly

Mutually exclusive with Kayne

.)
06. kanyeknowsbest x (

Formerly

Mutually exclusive with Ludi/KoC;

Currently

Mutually exclusive with Yosarian2

.)
09. SpyreX (

Mutually exclusive with Chair

.)
13. Chair (implosion + Misder) (

Mutually exclusive with SpyreX

.)
17. Yosarian2 x Parabollocks (replaced out D1) (Town Lean;

Mutually exclusive with Kayne

.)

Three names are scum. Spy/Chair is one. Kayne/KoC-Ludi/Yos2 is two. (Potentially [but doubtfully] three.) The third is likely one of my null reads. (It depends on whether {Kayne, KoC/Ludi, Yos2} contains one or two scum.)

[mastin2]

Mastin, why do you think the scum were all on the empking wagon, as opposed to all off, or a mixture?

I don't.
I think two were on, one was off.

The scum knew he was getting lynched, they wanted to get the bookie shot. Additionally, lynching Empking is (theoretically) free town-cred.
It's the same thing with SK/Opposite Scumfaction Lynches when you think about it. Lynching the SK/OSF looks pro-town, right? It's something nobody's supposed to be suspicious of; you helped lynch scum! Thing is, I've found SK/OSF Lynches to contain a significantly higher percentage of scum than normal.

Same thing applies to here--confirmed scum; NOT lynching Empking would be considered scummy, right? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight?
(No. For the multiple reasons outlined in-thread. But they didn't think that at the time.)

Why WOULDN'T there be more than one scum on the wagon? There should be two.
While theoretically possible to be three, like I said, I don't think they'd risk all three.

Two, on the other hand, is perfectly acceptable.

[mastin2]

Why do you think Ludi and I are mutually exclusive with Yos? Also can you explain your Zepher town read?

You read that wrong. KoC was mutually exclusive with you. As in, I read that one of you was town, the other scum. I'm less convinced of this now, and need to look into it some more.

Currently, I believe that you and Yosarian2 are mutually exclusive alignments, and that one of you is scum and the other is town.

Also can you explain your Zepher town read?

Swag was obv-town. Simple as that. Zepher's play seemed to be town as well. I didn't see scum Motivation in his moves. I didn't see scum Tone in his posts. I didn't see any condemning interactions from him. And speaking in more traditional scumhunting terms, I don't see any real evidence against him. The same applies to his predecessor, only moreso. The guy's obv-town.

[mastin2]

Mastin, it looks to me like you are trying to chain a grip of lynches and scum reads around an event that was apparently going to be happening no matter what: that being the empking scum lynch.

^For the record.

Lines like these are beginning to tip the scales in Ludi's direction.

As in, making Ludi scum.

[mastin2]

No, Ludi. Just no.

It doesn't work that way.

If I were scum, I'd be saying exactly what happened in the game, since that's what my biased viewpoint says would look the most likely.

In other words, if I were scum, there'd be two scum on the wagon and I'd be the scum off.

If you meant in general, well, I'm seeing pretty much equal numbers of people push "scum on" as "scum off". If anything, there's a slight margin in favor of "scum off", which pretty much guarantees the correct answer is "scum on". (What? Makes sense to ME! )

[mastin2]

Zephyr coming in and correcting you mastin, more than anything, makes me think town.

Among many other reasons, this is one of the things, too.

[mastin2]

...Oh. I mis-remembered. I was thinking I had Mask as a previous town-read.

BLASTED MEMORY!

(It always lies...)

[mastin2]

That re-orders the Null list. Sapo moves below Kunk (dead-on null, and I suspect will remain dead-on null the entire game. [Which probably means Kunk's town. ]) Sapo is Null, heavy (HEAVY) scum-lean.

Scratch that. Sapo's scum. Kunk's town.
{Kayne, Yos2, KoC/Ludi} contains 1 scum. (80% sure of that, now. 19% being 2 scum. A gratuitous 1% for all-town, which quite frankly I find pretty much impossible.)

{SpyreX, Chair} contains 1 scum.

{SpyreX, Knight of Cydonia, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2, saporovirus}
Sapo's one of the scum. Since all three of KoC, Kayne, and Yos2 are on the wagon, that means that SpyreX is more likely town, which makes Chair looking far more likely scum.

Yeah, this is looking nice. Real nice.

Let's take a stab at the dark.

I'll be checking into this further, but for now?

Calling It

: The scumteam is Saporovirus, Chair, and Magister Ludi.

Unvote, Vote: Chair

.

[mastin2]

([/leaving]. Will be back in a couple hours or so.)

[mastin2]

Call me paranoid, but both of my other scumreads going against Sapo is making me doubt that scumread.

Meh, we'll get around to it after both of my scumreads are dead and figure out the WIFOM then.

[mastin2]

I've really seen nothing convincing me my reads are even remotely wrong.

Ludi, Chair, they're bleeding scumtells in all their posts.

[mastin2]

Nah, they just got stronger.

[mastin2]

*yawns*

This game's boring once you figure out the scumteam. It kinda robs all of the fun out of the game when you know you're right. I skipped pretty much all of Ludi's BS wall, since Ludi's scum and there's no point in really reading it.

[mastin2]

Why do you think I tend not to bother making them, anymore?

(I really do hate building walls.)

[mastin2]

Spoiler: rambling

As I explained elsewhere, it's not necessarily that I hate building walls. It's that I really hate the consequences building walls have. "Wallcaholic" is an accurate description.

Building walls consumes a lot of time and tires me out, so it sucks--but it also gives an incredible high, a feeling of intense pleasure to pour so much into something and watch the energy flow from it.

Then, the consequences of the walling hit me, and I realize that I unintentionally killed the game with constant walling.

Not a fun feeling, that.

So, the most accurate way to describe it?

Love walling (the feeling of enjoyment far outweighs the feeling of "this sucks"), hate the consequences.

[mastin2]

Me, less so.

[mastin2]

(Lynching your third scumread, your tertiary suspect, is far inferior to lynching your primary or secondary suspect. I think Sapo's scum, sure--but I'm less sure of it than my other two scumreads, especially with one of them supporting the lynch. If any of my reads are to be wrong, Sapo's the one most likely to be it.

That's not a good lynch to me. Not yet, anyway.)

[mastin2]

(Oh, and Ludi weakly supports the wagon, too.)

[mastin2]

What's your pick for the scumteam again, Ether? I remember only a Sapo suspicion off the top of my head.

What are your thoughts on--for example--Ludi?

[mastin2]

With Chair V/LA, I see that wagon stalling due to responses

If people aren't voting Chair due to V/LA.

I.

Will.

Hunt.

Them.

Down.

In.

Real.

Life.

And.

STRANGLE THEM!

(You realize how much I hate seeing a wagon fall apart because the player's V/LA, right? What would you think if Sapo were to go V/LA for two weeks? "Oh, we'll wagon Sapo when Sapo gets back."? HECK NO.)

[mastin2]

Also,

If any of my reads are to be wrong, Sapo's the one most likely to be it.

^That is why I'm not hammering. Both my other scumspects have Sapo suspicion, for instance. It could be weak bussing, but the wagon is unnerving me.

Like I said. I definitely want Sapo dead due to the significant chance of being scum, preferably well before lylo--it's just, I don't want Sapo dead now; I want to lynch Chair and Ludi first and work out from there whether Sapo's scum or not.

[mastin2]

Should announce it here, as well. It won't be a problem (since I have internet access--just really slow, at a really unfortunate time, with access to my game-notes being extremely inconvenient), but

V/LA from 7/16 'til 7/22

.

[mastin2]

Hey, what'd I mi--
*reads thread*
Right, like I wasn't even gone. Hi, useless posts! It's Mastin, here, on vacation. No offense, but I'm hoping you die in a fire, soon, because we kinda need a lynch right now, and preferably not Sapo(/replacement).

[mastin2]

Dang it. With all the (admittedly weak) town-tells from Lamb, I'm beginning to doubt the scum-read on that slot. >_< (There's also the whole, "Ludi and Chair both support it" thing.)

Can we please lynch Chair instead?

[mastin2]

Yup. Ludi's scum.

There was no town in 1259. No town tone, no town motive, no town interactions. It was my trifecta of scum-tells.

[mastin2]

My vote's not on Ludi because quite frankly, there's less support for a Ludi lynch than a Chair lynch.

I called a scumteam of Chair-Ludi-Sapo. The reads on Chair and Ludi are roughly equal in strength. (Kinda hard to say one's more scum than the other when they're both, well, quite frankly obv-scum.)

[mastin2]

It's yes AND no, Ludi.
Yes, Sapo's Slot is less of a suspicion from me now than it was.
No, I haven't backed out of thinking said slot is scum; I still think so, but I'm just FAR less convinced of it compared to what I used to be.

What's so hard to understand about that?

[mastin2]

Alright, I know I'm staying at a home with a horrible mouse infestation, but that doesn't make me the Rat-Guy!

(If you're not laughing, you have no sense of humor.)

Ludi's attempt to prove me scum, has actually only managed to convince me that he's scum, because both he and Chair were on UT's mislynch.
Also, I won't stop pushing Chair/Ludi. Settling for a tertiary suspect-->bad.

[mastin2]

LLD-Kunkstar interactions are both a waste of time and looking like definitely not townVtown.

We'll deal with LLD later.

Chair dies first. They're at L-1.
====[]

[mastin2]

Honestly, my refusal to answer is itself the answer. There's literally nothing in 1155 I see the need to answer. Your continued pushing of a garbage-post for me to answer is confirmation you're scum.

[mastin2]

Yup. Chair is flailing scum at last minute. Like I said.

There's nothing in 1155 for me to respond to.

I looked at it, and double-checked the numbers. Multiple times.
In fact, I did it every time you asked me about it.

And every time, I wondered. "...Is that really the post Chair wants me to respond to? That can't be right. There's nothing there I need to address!"

Your last-minute suspicion on me for my refusal to answer a junk-post and your sudden Spy-could-be-town outlook on things, makes you confirmed scum.

[mastin2]

So mastin. 1155 had... one, two, three questions addressed at you. Why are you refusing to answer them?

They're fluff, they're useless, they're junk, they're garbage, they're an attempt to pass something off as legitimate scumhunting when it's not (active lurking), they're obsolete, they're pointless, they have no purpose...

Seriously, why WOULD I answer them?

There is no town motivation whatsoever for refusing to answer a question that has been directed at you five times especially from someone in my position.

There's no town motivation for cluttering the thread by responding to garbage.

This is either bad sarcasm or dishonesty. 1155 addressed you directly.

Yes, you addressed me directly.
No, that doesn't mean I need to address the post back. Twisting words for the win!

[mastin2]

Speaking of which,

There's no town motivation for cluttering the thread by responding to garbage.

Makes me wonder why I've been bothering with this conversation at all.

I'm talking to scum.

That's my mistake, here.

Assuming anything reasonable can come from trying to convince scum that they're scum.

[mastin2]

Yos2, you're skimming.

I can tell because you think I'm refusing to answer questions.

I can also tell, because you fail to realize LLD replaced Sapo, and therefore already has the third spot on my scumlist.
And I can tell further, because of the above, that you didn't realize that I've called a Chair-KoC/Ludi-Sapo/LLD scumteam, with my suspicion quite clearly listed in that exact order of strength. (Albeit only just--Chair and Ludi are quite close.) In other words, (how many times will I say it before it sticks?)
Do I think LLD's scum?
Yes.

Do I think LLD should be lynched today?

No, because LLD's the weakest of my suspects and the one most likely to be wrong.

(Oh, and that unattentiveness from Yosarian2 also makes me lean stronger town on him than I was before.)

Way I see it,
{Chair, SpyreX} are both opposite alignments. {KoC/Ludi, Kayne} are both very likely opposite alignments. {Sapo/LLD, Kunkstar} are both almost certainly opposite alignments.

I've made it pretty clear that this is because all of their interactions aren't townVtown. (Interactions are my primary scumhunting method nowadays.)

[mastin2]

VOTE: SpyreX

Again, the Oversoul-LLD interaction does not look townVtown, but this needs to happen today, instead.

[mastin2]

Yes and no.
Yes, in that your statement is accurate.
No, in that there's three letters you added which I would drop from the statement.

[mastin2]

Ok, we're in the day before lynch or lose in all likelyhood (given four scum). I'm in favor of a massclaim here.

Also,

Fos:
a. MrZepher
b. Mastin2
c. Idher

Ah, good. Howabouts you start us off, then?

Additionally, where's the Idher suspicion from?

[mastin2]

The person suggesting the MC doesn't wait for people to give feedback on the MC. They just do it, quickly, without hesitation. You have suspects, you have reasons to want an MC today (day before lylo), you begin.

NOW.

Or are confirmed scum. Claim or die, Ludi.

[mastin2]

The reasons I want a MC today the day before lynch or lose is the reason every town player wants one, to lock scum into their claims.

Exactly! And everyone knows this.

EVERYONE.

Meaning, you'd get no objection and in fact would just get a lot of support.
I never debated this. I said you had plenty of reasoning already for an MC.

BUT YOUR DELAY MAKES YOU SCUM.

There's NO pro-town motivation to wait.

Cop claiming with a guilty?
Really?
Like that wouldn't happen in someone's first post on the day before lylo?

You're stalling.

Pure and simple.

No pro-town player suggesting an MC the day before lylo, would wait on the MC. THERE IS NO REASON TO WAIT. It's common site meta, standard practice, to have the MC the day before lylo. THERE WOULD BE NO OBJECTION.

And you already offered to go first. Meaning,

THERE IS NO REASON FOR YOU TO WAIT.

Your hesitation, makes you scum.

[mastin2]

Let me put it this way.

If you're town, with a town mind-set, you go into today thinking, "day before LYLO, time to massclaim".
If you're town, who volunteers to go first, you go immediately, because you know that there's nothing to lose by claiming immediately. You display a town motive by immediately following through with your action.

Now to contrast.

If you're scum, you also realize it's standard site meta to do an MC.
If you're scum, who's been volunteered to go first, you think that you either have to follow through and do it immediately, or deny and potentially get suspicion on you. You feel the pressure of the request, and submit.
If you're scum, you don't want to claim immediately--you want to prod the town first, to see what kind of responses you'll get from everyone, see what you can use in your claim, see what can be taken advantage of, take a guess as to what people's roles are based off of their responses. You gain a lot of info for your fakeclaim.

In other words,

LUDI HAS NO TOWN MOTIVE TO NOT CLAIM IMMEDIATELY. LUDI HAS

PLENTY

TO GAIN FROM WAITING AS SCUM, BUT

NOTHING

TO GAIN AS TOWN!

[mastin2]

I have no time to read your useless posts with insane logic (that is very anti-town to boot),

Ludi is calling my posts useless, insane, and anti-town. This is a scumslip, because Ludi is NOT calling them scummy. Ludi's instead basically pushing a policy lynch of me.

Untrod Tripod (9): mastin2, Magister Ludi, MrZepher, kunkstar7

There's no way this is an all-town wagon. Four names on it unconfirmed. Ludi and I are both among them.

Here's a deal.

Let's take a gambit.

This has the potential to cost me the game if I'm wrong, but with Ludi's overall play today, I'm convinced I'm right.

Lynch Either me, or Ludi today, and if they flip town, the other one tomorrow,

no excuses,

no alternatives

,

one of us GUARANTEED

[/i]

.

[mastin2]

*Guaranteed was supposed to be italicized as well, hence the rogue [/i] at the end.

[mastin2]

Speaking of which,

Unvote, VOTE: Magister Ludi.

[mastin2]

Empking (8): SpyreX, Magister Ludi, kanyeknowsbest,

Oversoul

, Lady Lambdadelta,
Chair (6): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest, mastin2, kunkstar7, LLD

There also needs to be 1-2 scum on Empking. Additionally, the Chair lynch couldn't have all been town, so there needs to be one scum there as well.

Both wagons have LLD and SpyreX on them.

[mastin2]

We're not.

We're voting me or Ludi.

No alternatives.

We're Massclaiming, but the lynch today is either Ludi or myself. And if the one lynched flips town, lynch the other. Accept no others. No compromises, no alternatives, no backing out at the last moment for some trivial reason.

We're making this happen.

[mastin2]

thats quite the gambit. what happens if youre scum and ludi is bookied? that loses us the game.

If anyone is bookied, it could lose us the game.

Quite frankly, I don't think the bookie has any shots left.

if this is genuinely a gambit you are interested in pushing mastin, would you be willing to make yourself the lynch for today on the premise that we would lynch ludi tomorrow?

Unvote, Vote: mastin2

. Now, you too.

[mastin2]

kanyeknowsbest (1): Oversoul
Oversoul (1): LLD
^Both of these names need to switch to Ludi or me.
Kayne also needs to vote one of us. Immediately--he seems to be hinting strongly at thinking one of us is scum. (In particular, me.) Follow through, Kayne. You're not exactly great by VCA either, you know. Don't add to the list of charges by not taking a stance.

And additionally, every single post Ludi fails to start the MC by claiming his role and popcorning to elsewhere is another post where Ludi admits to being scum.

[mastin2]

The wagon on me should be L-1 right now. LLD, Ludi, Kayne, myself.

Why isn't it?

Why aren't those players following through with their vague suspicions?

They afraid? Afraid that my town-flip screws them over?

I have one vote on me, now, and it's my own.

The fact that I haven't been voted, tells me that I'm right. That Ludi IS scum.

[mastin2]

-Magister Ludi. I honestly have a hard time conceiving a possibility of Ludi-town. KoC was flailscum as fuck and Ludi has not improved the slot at all.

-LLD. I was totally convinced that saporovirus was scum. LLD's initial replacement made me doubt a little, but her actions today - that 100% TERRIBLE Oversoul vote -- threw that out the window.

-SpyreX, but not anything close to the degree of the other two. Ether suspects SpyreX more than I do.

Oversoul, KKB, and Mr Zephyr are my strongest town reads.

Minus the KKB town-read, this is more or less my list as well.

Unvote, VOTE: Magister Ludi. L-2.

[mastin2]

Quick check in but what in the HELL happened here?

I'll have real words tomorrow lets not do anything super awesome and have a lynch before then aight?

^Scum posting.

[mastin2]

Ohh man you got me.

Because this is retarded because you're both town. OHH SNAP.

No, we're not.

Our interaction is not townVtown.

You'd know, as Ludi's buddy.

[mastin2]

Yeah, pretty sure Spy's scum. (No, Chair, you will not get to send that rant PM to me, since I'm fully aware that you were right on Spy being scum.)

But still.

Ludi should go first.

[mastin2]

So what do we do if Ludi flips town?
Tomorrow Mastin's going to go after SpyreX with some ridiculousness that says "Oh well SpyreX can be scum independently of Ludi" or something, and avoid the lynch on himself.

It's called a gambit for a reason.
I'm gambitting on Ludi being scum. Enough that I'm willing to be lynched. If Ludi flips town, my gambit will fail. I'll take full responsibility for the town loss, and will not stop anyone for voting me.

But in lylo, voting for myself would obviously be against me wincon, so if Ludi flips town, I'll be voting SpyreX tomorrow. But it'd be a spite-vote, since I know I wouldn't be followed and should be lynched, if I'm wrong about Ludi.

This is all moot, however, since Ludi is scum.

I would not have taken this gambit if I was not sure of the results.

The bookie nonsense needs to die.

Seriously, the vig only had one shot.
So too will the bookie, for balance reasons.

And even if the bookie didn't, then they must've used up their extra since then, because they've had two nights since night one. You really think they chose not to use an ability they are at constant risk of losing (via lynch or vig, their bookie could die any day), two nights in a row?

No. Just no.


STOP THE BOOKIE SPECULATION. That paranoia will only make you lose this game. The. Bookie. Is. Not. A. Threat. Get that through your heads.

Now, since that is clear to you, think about the situation again.

My gambit is flawless. Ludi is scum. SpyreX is scum. LLD's my current choice for third scum. (But I'm not sold. Idher and Oversoul are both so obv-town that if they're scum, they deserve the victory. Zepher's also someone I consider to be obv-town, I know my own alignment, and KKB is null. Kunkstar is also consistently null as well.)

mastin, i will happily hear a case on ludi and vote him should i believe he is scum.

My case was made on the page where I declared my intention to lynch Ludi or be lynched myself in the effort. Ludi had a pure scum mind-set going into the MC idea, and is STILL living, breathing scum in every post he continues not to follow through and claim. I made my voice quite clear then, gave a solid case from that page alone.

Shouldn't that be enough? Or do you want me to cover the whole game?

[mastin2]

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO STILL BELIEVE BOOKIE ON LUDI:

Well, that'd require people voting Ludi immediately, correct? Well, maybe Idher could. But let's look at the opening votes of the other two members of that wagon, shall we?

I guess the vig and bookie were one shots. :/

VOTE: kkb may ethos have been right.

(NOTE--LLD and Oversoul both vote KKB immediately. IF there was still a bookied target out there, it'd be more likely to be KKB.)

VOTE: SpyreX

Again, the Oversoul-LLD interaction does not look townVtown, but this needs to happen today, instead.

If Ludi was bookied, why was Ludi not voted until later?


FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO STILL BELIEVE I AM BOOKIED:
Refer to the extreme lack of votes on me. Zepher is the only current vote, and is the second vote on me...with the other vote coming from me.



Seriously.
No.
Bookie.
Talk.

It dies. NOW.

[mastin2]

LLD (2): kunkstar7, SpyreX

Not voting: Magister Ludi, kanyeknowsbest

Both of these weaker (2) wagons contain one scum each. In particular, the Not Voting. There's literally no excuse not to be voting, ESPECIALLY from Ludi right now. And the LLD wagon is looking strongly scm-driven.


For the record, I'm reconsidering who the third scum is. The above VCA strongly is suggesting that Kayne can't be if Ludi is, and Kunk can't be if Spy is. And LLD looks scum-driven, but why bus their buddy now when there's a giant Mastin versu---

Wait a sec.

If LLD is town, then an LLD mislynch today would push a Mastin versus Ludi scenario in lylo.

I know Oversoul and Zepher are town, and there's literally tons of interactions which make certain pairings mutually exclusive, but something's not right with this situation. (Like I said. Either me or Ludi should be close-to-dead by now. Ludi is semi-close, I'm nowhere even remotely close. That's telling me there's strong scum motivation not to--but what do the scum gain by not lynching me today?)

[mastin2]

Their votes. They're both voting LLD.

See also: the reason why one of Ludi/myself should be wagoned.

[mastin2]

I'll be responding to Ludi in a bit. Needless to say, He just scumslipped by revealing he knows I'm town. But as for my role-claim, it should be obvious enough:

I am the one role which I admire and respect above all others, the one role I love being more than any other role. I am the one role which has nailed more scum than all other roles on any site combined. I am the role which when used properly, is a potential gamebreaker for the town. I am the one role which I truly understand, the one role I can always identify with, more than any other role.

I am the one role which is more flexible, more complex, than anything else you can throw at me. I am the one role which matches my style perfectly. I am the one role, which is always unpredictable. I am the one role, which the scum hate most of all.

I am the one role, which the scum can never counter. I am the one role, which can grant me the freedom I so love to have in a game. I am the one role, which gives me the most joy when scumhunting. I am the one role, which I can best make use of my notes in. I am the one role, which I feel is awesomeness beyond levels anyone gives it credit for. I am the one role, which has its power consistently underestimated.

What am I?


I am the great.
I am the almighty.


Vanilla Townie.

And I stand by every word I just said.


LadyLD, you're next.
(About to show why Ludi scumclaimed.)

[mastin2]

Spoiler: Ludi Quote One

This is wrong. I propose a massclaim, and it is more than resonable to wait until everyone has at least checked into thread before we (or myself, it hardly matters) start a massclaim, because there are several possible situations in most games (in this one, there is the obvious cop with a guilty), that make massclaiming today a dumb idea. Having half the town claim, claim a few power-roles, and then someone show up and say "guilty, why didn't you guys wait for me?", is just fail-town practices.

You're pushing for a theoretical situation which has already proven to be incredibly unlikely, and becomes more so with each claim we hear. This is all evidence that a pro-town player--ESPECIALLY one with the Vanilla Townie PM--would be able to figure out quickly--that masons+1-shot vig in a game of this size uses up almost all the town's power.

It's something scum with, say, a bookie and rolecop (remember the mod-slips on Empking? Showing him flip wrong twice? Guess what roles that revealed are in the setup?) probably wouldn't think of, since they'd think, "...is this all the town power out there?!? Isn't there something stronger?"

IE, exactly the thought process you displayed and continue to display. Scum mind-set. A pro-town player doesn't think of the hypothetical-one-in-a-thousand-scenario. (If they did, then I'd be a lot more worried about you flipping town than I am. ) They think of the most-likely outcome. The outcome fueled by common sense, general game balance, and quite frankly, overall probability.

Additionally, while the thought of an MC the day before lylo is overall null, once more, I'd point to the thought process. The scum thought process is to get any remaining power roles out of the way, with their given strength thinking there's more. The town thought process is to lock people into claims so that we don't have a role counter-claim in lylo. You didn't display the latter. Your tone, your thought process, gave away that you were thinking in the terms of the former.

Tl;dr?

1: There's a difference between possibility and probability. Town focuses on the latter, scum THRIVE on the former. Ludi displays a strong attatchment to "it could be", rather than "it likely is".

2: Scum mind-set, scum tone.

For one thing, it makes it a lot more likely that that the mafia will get a successful bookie shot off, because they know their lynch pool is reduced by one or two (the power-roles), and a successful bookie shot at this stage in the game loses the game for town, which cannot be stated enough.

The ultimate expression of the above points, because it brings into play the exact issue I was talking about:

Possibility versus Probability.

Yes, it's possible the Bookie wasn't one-shot. Yes, it's possible the Bookie waited to use their other shot(s).

But the Bookie is (presumably) at risk of being lynched/vigged every single day. The Bookie also would have had to choose not to use another shot two nights IN A ROW for the situation Ludi describes to be possible.

Possible? Yes. Probable? OH HECK NO. I've conclusively proved why the Bookie is out of play in my previous posts. Ludi is intentionally trying to throw the town into Bookienoia. Which shows about the strongest scum Motive I can possibly show you.

Why hello there gambit that loses the game.

This is the ultimate scum-slip. Why? Because my plan of "Lynch Ludi/Mastin, lynch the other if the first flips town" only loses the game if we're BOTH town. So, in other words, the gambit will not lose us the game if one of us is scum. And from Ludi-town's perspective, that'd have to be me. But me being town is mutually exclusive with my strategy losing the game for the town, from Ludi-town's perspective.

From the perspective of Ludi-scum-pretending-to-be-Ludi-town, though, it fits perfectly. LSPTBLT sees a gambit on town, and says "this gambit will lose us the game", thinking it's true from Ludi-Town's perspective. But advocating for my lynch at the same time instantly means that it can't lose the game because if I'm scum, then the gambit doesn't hurt the town at all from Ludi-town's view, a fact that LSPTBLT is very likely to have overlooked.

Hence, the huge scum-slip, which really is a scum-claim.

a. they are literally so insane every post is trying to doom the town.

Again, Ludi is scumslipping, by knowing that I am town.

Coupled with this,

Mastin's gambit loses the game for town, guaranteed, if it lynches me.

It's about as strong as an admittance you can get to Ludi being scum, since my gambit proposes MY lynch after Ludi's in this Ludi-is-town scenario, and the only way that'd lose the game is if I were also town, a fact Ludi strongly is going in opposition to.

The fact her wagon disintergrated so quickly at end of day probably means that she is town, as she was at L-1 for the longest time and has had only one vote today, no one was genuinely convinced enough that she was scum.

Defends LLD. (Additionally, refer to Mini 1180's Day One/Two for why this is wrong--the Ald wagon took forever to build, fell apart multiple times, and yet, he was scum.)

So you think mastin is gambiting on town (me) as scum (him), but you'd STILL LIKE TO VOTE TOWN (me) anyways?

This is backwards--Zepher WAS voting me, not Ludi.
It's also extremely paranoid, since if Zepher went onto Ludi, Ludi'd be at L-1.

Ludi's getting desperate for a lynch on me, trying to get me on myself, for instance. In other words, Ludi's becoming panicked scum.

Of course, there's more from those two posts I could quote to show you, but it's overall just augmenting the points I've already shown and this post is long enough.


But moving on to other stuff...

and isn't at all how you play as town in the games I have played with you

Ludi, how many times have you played as a hydra? (Not necessarily AS Hydra, but that certainly counts. ) You should know better than this. For instance, would you post so infrequently that you'd be at risk of being replaced when solo'ing?

(Scumpoints for trying to argue meta difference in a hydra. Seriously, there's virtually no player who plays identically in a hydra to their play when solo'ing. That's one of the main draws TO hydra'ing!)

Valid.

as did Yosarian2, who is now dead

Appeal to Dead. (That SHOULD be a logical fallacy. ) Trying to use the night-kill as leverage is something that scum do all the time. We have the word "WIFOM" for a reason.

How is this a counter-point? My slot was Ythan. I fail to see how that counters Ludi's bandwagon evidence.

[mastin2]

(In case you were wondering--last link to me is more evidence SpyreX is scum, because to me, it looks like Spy is over-defending me to try and garner some town-points, despite having previously said that I was the weaker of the two town-reads he had. Small contradiction, but still a contradiction.)

[mastin2]

Aaaaaaaaaand...
Ludi responds to one little point in my wall, while failing to address ALL the rest of it.

If you lynch me today, the bookie will hit you tomorrow

Bookienoia, once more. Trying to invoke Bookie paranoia which was a consistent problem for the town yesterday.

As I mentioned. Scum thrive on possibilities. By pointing out a possible situation, they can instill paranoia in the town, fear to take advantage of. Towns win on probabilities. Working from logical assumptions and concluding the situations most likely.

Why are you not self voting again if you are so sure I am scum and want to prove it 100%?

1: You have more votes. If I switched, it'd be a tie. 2: You're scum panicking. 3: You're desperate to get me lynched rather than yourself. 4: You're hoping that with me dead today, you'll be able to talk your way out of being lynched tomorrow. 5: Given the choice between a Ludi Lynch and a Mastin self-lynch, I'm going to go for the Ludi Lynch.

[mastin2]

Kunk, as much as I'd love for you to be mod-confirmed nk-immune town, now would be a very bad time to use your ability--we kinda, y'know, need your vote in order to win.

Am I wrong with this?

[mastin2]

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
3 scum. 8 votes if Kunk goes wooden on us. That's 5 town. Which'd make today lylo.

TOMORROW:
7 alive-->4 to lynch.
6-7 votes, 2-3 of which are scum.
If it's 3 with only six, past lylo; town loses. If it's 3 with 7, lylo. If it's 2 with only six votes, mylo.
That's the only situation I can see Kunk realistically using his power to become mod-confirmed NK-immune town. A scum lynch today.

Is there anything wrong with my math? (I tend to make silly errors from time to time. Like forgetting to factor in the scum NK when developing a "game-breaking" strategy employing a lynch/vig combo. )

[mastin2]

...The heck happened here? I was gone for only a couple hours working on a wall, and then there's a new page to read? :/

/Reading.

[mastin2]

Faked reaction. There's no way that was a legitimate reaction to learning Idher was town. (Really, Idher was obv-town. The only thing which made me doubt that for so much as a second was the fact that they weren't dead yet. )

UN-FOS Idher

There's no point in doing this. There's literally no reason to post this. Especially since the above linked post was essentially doing this. Ludi's need to emphasize this makes him scum.

And though it goes without saying, if someone hammers me rapidly me today, they are a STRONG candidate for vigging, because it is still possible for town to lynch scum and lose tomorrow if the scum bookie themselves, which they will probably do if the quicklynch to end this day.

Scumslip. How? This reveals Ludi knows that Idher isn't one-shot. A fact only Idher should know. The only other way to know? Either 1: being a rolecop, or 2: knowing the bookie isn't one-shot.

Either way, there's no way Ludi could've concluded that there was an extra shot at this point if he were town.

I think SpyreX is town because he is trying to diffuse me and mastin as town on town, when there is no reason to do that as scum

Yes, there is--A: in the theoretical scenario where we're both town, diffusing our fight will 1: make him look better to most people, and 2: would only be temporary. We'd be at each others' throats tomorrow--and if that were lylo, game over; he wins via stalling our fight.

B: And if one of us is scum, he has an even stronger motivation to make sure one of us is not lynched. Note how he says that if one of us were to be scum, I'd be the more likely candidate. Which means, if it came down to You-Or-Me (WHICH IT SHOULD BE! I will NOT back down from this!), he'd choose Me. That's about as close to a scumclaim as you can get.

Actually, with Idher as vig and no shot coming last night, I'm going to assume that the mafia have a rolecop in their possesion.

There shouldn't be any "assume". This is faking it. Why? Because everyone noticed the mod mis-flipped Empking twice--once as bookie, once as rolecop. Which means, everyone could logically conclude that both those roles were on the scumteam. In other words, there's no "assume" in it. It's common sense.

A hidden three man mason group is very powerful, and combining that with a vig would about balance out a rolecop and a booker. There is clearly no cop, so there probably is no tailor.

TOWN WAY OF DEDUCING THERE'S A ROLECOP: The mod slipped on Empking, it's in the setup. I mentioned it on the previous page, even! (Or somewhere around there. I've said it today, for sure.) Idher mentions it again on 61, too. SCUM WAY OF DEDUCING THERE'S A ROLECOP: Trying to use logic to come up with a scenario which justifies its existence.

This also contradicts with Ludi's stance at the beginning of the day, you know, that whole "cop with guilty" thing he was complaining about in the Massclaim idea. When everyone already knew there wouldn't BE a cop. (Had one claimed, I'd have lynched them, knowing full good and well that the scum had a rolecop and therefore the town probably didn't have a real cop.)

Yosarian was on Mr. Zepher and I think that may be it.
Thus, the killed Yosarian, but also why no one else picked up on suspecting Idher with me

I recently rediscovered an old gem: Here's my counter-theory. Nobody's really used Yosarian2 in their arguments except for you, Ludi. So, my counter-theory? You killed Yosarian2 to put additional pressue on Zepher and Idher, your 'suspects', by pointing out his reads and saying that's why he was likely killed.

Honestly, this is the most classic case of scum WIFOM there is.

Side-note: SypreX and Ludi are the two who've spoken strongest against Idher having been obvig. Coincidence? I think not.

@Mastin: If only one of myself and LLD can be scum, and you seem to believe my treestump claim, are you finally willing to act on your suspicion of LLD and get on her wagon?

No. See also--me advocating strongly for Ludi/myself to be lynched. Even if LLD is scum, I will not let Ludi slip through the cracks, will not let this debate drag on to future days, lingering around to lylo. It needs to be settled, today.

Mastin, what do you think of spyrex?

VOTE: SpyreX.

01. Lady Lambdadelta saporovirus (replaced out D3) The Mask (replaced out D1)
^Scum.
02. MrZepher x Swag136 (force-replaced and blacklisted D1)
^Town.
05. Magister Ludi Knight of Cydonia (replaced out D3)
^Confirmed Scum.
06. kanyeknowsbest x | x
^Strong town lean.
07. Îdher (Amrun + Ether hydra) x | x | x
^Confirmed town.
09. SpyreX
^Obv-scum.
15. Oversoul x
^Obv-town.
16. kunkstar7 x | x | x
^Conf-town.


So,
TOWN:
Idher
Kunkstar
Oversoul
Zepher

Kayne

SCUM:
Ludi
SpyreX
LLD

[mastin2]

Can you please shut the fuck up with your whole confirmed scum bullshit over and over and over again when I am 100% town. You are scum, so of course infuriating me and other players probably plays towards your win condition.

Oh, you're frustrated, alright.

But it aint town frustration.

You're furious that I've caught you, that I'm nailing you with every single post. You're outraged that I've given so many conclusive reasons why you're scum. You're ticked off that I'm getting you lynched with something you've acknowledged is more important than logic or gut--I'm getting you lynched by pure willpower. (This is a reference to an MD topic Ludi contributed to. The question the thread wanted answered is "which is better, logic or gut?" Ludi's first answer was "willpower".)

Even as town, you never consider yourself wrong, or that you have a bad read.

This is an admittance that I'm town from Ludi.

You are perhaps the most anti-town player I have encountered in any of my games, and continually posting bullshit all over the thread makes me wonder why I replaced in here.

This admits that him saying "anti-town" to me earlier wasn't calling me scum(my). It was calling my playstyle anti-town. In other words, it's contradicting with his earlier stance and he says that I'm effectively null by this.

If I was scum I would nightkill you to get you out of my game as soon as possible.

But I only started really going against you today. You had no motivation to want me dead until today.

Spoiler: This One's a bit long

Also, for your town ego, You basically have shit reads in everygame I have ever seen with you, and I don't even think you care at this point.

No. My reads never drop below mediocrity in their accuracy. Never. In my last game with you, I stopped a mislynch day one and had two separate people (Gollum and farside) nailed as scum. We were onto the trail of Pine as well, something the whole town failed to do. Seriously, you. let. him. live. despite. him. being. caught. in. a. lie. We were also on the trail of hohum. We were never told he was scum. We figured it out by knowing Pine's meta.

In other words, we did better than most of the players. That's why we were night-killed: because we were a THREAT. And yesterday, I wasn't. Yesterday, I stopped an LLD lynch and focused on a Chair lynch. Yesterday, I was the scum's best friend. Yesterday, the scum had no clue what they were letting live. They had no idea that I become exponentially more dangerous the longer I have to nail the scum.

Quite frankly put. You didn't see me coming. I took you by surprise by going so hard and fast against you. I caught you off-guard, and you're paying the price for letting me slip through your fingers, for letting me live rather than Yosarian2. You didn't think I had it in me to stop you, you didn't think I had it in me to nail you down.

Hell, you fucking deleted your main account because your read WAS SO FUCKING BAD someone bet you out of your account.

Wrong. mastin2 was created on my scumday. October 8th, 2009. My one-year anniversary for signing up on MafiaScum. That should give you a hint as to my intentions on the account--I had ALWAYS intended to switch over to mastin2, because it's a name I quite frankly feel more comfortable as. It's the name on my home-forum, after all. It was my choice to switch.

You trying to use this as leverage against me, makes you scum. You're trying to use past failures (which I LEARNED from) to justify me being wrong this game. You're trying to argue that because I was wrong in the past, I'm wrong now. You're no longer attacking my play. You're attacking me, as a player. That kind of low-blow is something which can only come from scum.

[mastin2]

Oh, and by the way:

why I replaced in here. I remember, it was to play with players I like, like

Yosarian2

and SpyreX

'Nother reason Ludi would kill Yosarian2--respect. Respecting Yos2's scumhunting abilities, and fearing them.

Like a classic newb-scum tell, in fact--killing the IC because they fear the more experienced player. It's a dead-ringer for that.

[mastin2]

And by the way, this is the exact same type of scum rage I just finished a game in had--Mini 1180, Alduskkel on day two. He was FURIOUS at me. He gave off the same vibe Ludi is here. "I CAN'T BELIEVE HE CAUGHT ME FOR ALL THOSE *BEEP* REASONS!" He's not arguing that he isn't scum. He's arguing that he isn't scum for the reasons I'm laying out.

[mastin2]

Logic is a human creation, humans are flawed. There are action, and there are reactions. I think we delude ourselves into believeing we are greater than ourselves, greater than our minds.

Mafia is at heart a game of will. Who has the greater will to survive, and to impose.

Logic is probably better than gut.

But I think both are inferior to will. It is why some people are very hard to lynch, why their opinions hold weight, why others look for them in games. Those players have exerted their will, their persona, they exsist and therfore others are forced to be diminished.

If you look weak, if there is no fear of you, you will be lynched. As the game progresses, those 'willful' either are never lynched because they're scum and win, are nightkilled, or familiarity has breed enough contempt, so to speak, in those around them that they overcome their fear and rise up to meet their 'oppressors', and vote them.

These are what I'm talking about.

[mastin2]

The Zepher wagon is MadeOfFail.

It's Ludi or Me.

No. Alternatives.

[mastin2]

Explain Mastin(succinctly, one or two sentences preferably), why you two apparently have to be of opposing alignments.

1: VCA.
Ludi and I look the worst from it.

2: Neither one of our slots has any real town credit.

3: I believe Zepher is town.

4: Ludi is living, breathing scum, more so than even SpyreX.

5: If I were anyone outside of us two, I'd be saying our argument was not townVtown.

[mastin2]

Nope, Ludi's at L-2. Ludi was at L-2 with you on. When you unvoted, Ludi went to L-3. Kayne going onto Ludi was L-2 again, and you're still off.

[mastin2]

Never in my life have I seen such a scummy quickwagon.

"Coincidentally", my top two scumreads are on it.

[mastin2]

Kunkstar (town), Idher (town), Kayne (depends on LLD...), SpyreX (scum), Ludi (HAMMER!) (scum).

Something's not right with this wagon.

[mastin2]

Concerning fact--LLD never got more than two votes until 24 hours ago. Kunk (town) and SpyreX (scum). When Idher joined, suddenly three more votes all end up on LLD, and LLD is hammered.

That's not a town-speed wagon. There's serious scum-drive in it, regardless of what LLD flips. No town wagon forms in less than 24 hoursd from absolutely nothing. Which confirms, once and for all, finally, that both Ludi and SpyreX are scum. There's no way that the LLD wagon is all-town. There's no way it doesn't have at least two scum on it.

Absolutely no way at all.

[mastin2]

Just did the math in my head. Calculated there was no reason for my last-second paranoia. (If you couldn't tell, I was worried that maybe all three scum quick-hammered LLD.)
Worst case scenario, LLD flips town and was bookied. 8 alive, 3 scum going into night.
One scum kill, seven alive with 3 scum. (Lylo.)
Two scum kills, six alive with 3 scum. (Past lylo, but...)
One vig kill, plus two scum kills = 5 alive. And either WAY past lylo (3 scum and 2 town), or at lylo.

Ludi and SpyreX are still scum, but Kayne seems town enough to me.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Magister Ludi.

Game.

[mastin2]

And no, don't even think about a no-lynch. Reasons should be painfully obvious.

[mastin2]

Don't forget LLD. And throw Empking in there as well.

Their connections are strong.

[mastin2]

You are a Traitor!

You know that (PLAYERNAMES) are the mafia,

but they don't know you.

Btw, Zepher not knowing this is a town-slip.

[mastin2]

So, for LLD, you're essentially looking for frustration of, "DANG IT, *partners*, I'M THE EFFING TRAITOR; HAVEN'T YOU FIGURED THAT OUT?!?"

[mastin2]

Zepher, we have six alive. We've got scum-flips from SpyreX (goon), Empking (goon), and LLD (traitor).

We have seventeen players in this game.

5/17 comes out to be a bit high, no?

So, there should only be one scum left. And we know that the setup has a bookie. Therefore, there can't be a rolecop. (Though why Reck mis-flipped Empking as a rolecop is a mystery.)

[mastin2]

Yeah, with only one scum, I'd be in favor of stumping. Anyone objecting should say so now.

[mastin2]

Really, really town

04. Mastin2
09.

SpyreX

Town

12.

Untrod Tripod

x
07.

Îdher

(Amrun + Ether hydra) x
05.

Magister Ludi

Null

01.

Lady Lambdadelta

02. MrZepher
03.

dramonic

06. kanyeknowsbest
13.

Chair

(implosion + Misder)
14.

T-Bone

x
15. Oversoul

Scum

16.

kunkstar7

17.

Yosarian2

08.

Hiraki

Really, really scum

10.

Ethos

(Slaxx + Regfan hydra)

Yosarian2

(8):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

Untrod Tripod

,

Chair

,

SpyreX

,

Empking

,

Hiraki

, MrZepher

Untrod Tripod

(9):

Chair

, mastin2,

T-Bone

,

Ethos

,

Hiraki

,

Magister Ludi

, MrZepher,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

Empking

(8):

SpyreX

,

Magister Ludi

,

T-Bone

, kanyeknowsbest,

Yosarian2

, Oversoul,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Empking

Chair

(6):

SpyreX

, kanyeknowsbest, mastin2,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

, LLD

Lady Lambdadelta

(5):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

, MrZepher,

Chair

, Oversoul

Other wagons of note
Ethos (5): kanyeknowsbest,

Untrod Tripod

,

Hiraki

,

SpyreX

, Mastin2
Empking (5):

Îdher

,

Ethos

,

kunkstar7

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Yosarian2

annnd i was waiting to post this. ludi not lookin too hot here. ive got more to say about that but ill save it til tomorrow.

LLD is Crimson, since while she knew the scum (and the scum might've figured out who she was, but had no role-based way of knowing who she was), the scum didn't start out knowing her. (It would not surprise me if they figured it out.) Ludi is in pink to fit with the lightblue-->softconfirmedtown, so lightred-->softconfirmedscum, if that makes sense.

[mastin2]

Whoops, missed the crimson here:

Chair (6): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest, mastin2, Yosarian2, kunkstar7,

LLD

[mastin2]

By the way, Ludi's at L-1. If Kunk treestumps, that's a hammer.

[mastin2]

So, either action results in the same result--Ludi lynched. Given the choice, I'd prefer the stump to the hammer.

[mastin2]

also id save stumping til tomorrow

And if we're theoretically wrong about Ludi, the scum can kill Kunk.

Whereas if we're wrong about Ludi and Kunk stumps, the scum force the NK onto an alignment-unconfirmed player.

(We're not; Ludi's scum. But safe rather than sorry.)

[mastin2]

Just in case: VOTE: Magister Ludi.

[mastin2]

Yeah, not buying the Ludi-town gambit.

In his situation, I'd be gambiting that the mod wouldn't count the votes until after the mod stumped kunk, and that in the mean time, I'd be able to earn town credit by saying I'm town so that if the game isn't over, I'd be able to get free town-cred.

You know. Identical to fakehammers. Don't act as caught scum after what you believe to be the hammer, just in case it's fake and you're still alive--keeping your cool gets you town-cred.

I am not scum.
Zepher buying into Ludi's BS makes him not scum, either.

It's obviously not kunk.

That leaves Oversoul, kayne, and Ludi. I have a big huge town-read on Oversoul, and kayne has proved himself to be quite pro-town these last few days.

It really can't be anyone OTHER than Ludi.

Not that my vote will count, but I was town, and probably bookied by the scum, so scum are going to get two nightkills tonight and win the game.

Once more, Ludi puts in that bookie paranoia in people. While admittedly, the bookie was not one-shot like I had originally believed, the other points about the bookie remain valid. Only more so.

This is day five. That's four nights. Bookie used a shot night one on Empking. Other bookie shot? Would have to go un-used for two nights in a row. And if Ludi thought it was me, that would mean I was at consistent risk of losing my power by intentionally putting myself on the line. If the town chose me over Ludi, then in Ludi-town's persective, the scum have lost their bookie shot. In other words, Ludi continuing to press the bookie as having a shot left, is quite frankly fearmongering.

The bookie is out of play.

Additionally,

I hope scum MrZepher or whoever didn't realize that this would happen and bookied someone else, and this goes to three man lylo. Why in the name of all that is good did kunkstar stump himself when he could stump himself tomorrow and still give town the bookie cushion incase town lynched a bookied town.

He should be suspicious of me as town, not of Zepher. He's admitting that he's scum, by not pursuing me as scum. He also ignores the discussion that I brought up about the treestump--that was me; no other suggested stumping today. From Ludi-town's perspective, that makes me look like manipulative scum who played my cards right. Yet he pursues Zepher, who didn't suggest this, who didn't lead the town today.

It really is a scumclaim.

[mastin2]

If game is over why did you just type up a huge post?

Same exact reason you haven't admitted we just one--

In the small chance it isn't and that the votes reset, but only reset after the mod stumps kunk.

Now would have been the perfect time to use a bookie shot (actually, I'm hoping scum didn't expect kunkstar to stump so badly out of nowhere or spyrex to die)

And so would yesterday have been, when the gambit was made. Additionally, "hoping scum didn't expect kunk to stump" is mutually exclusive with you pushing me as scum, since I'm the one who PUSHED kunk to stump.

Mastin, if you're town, how does it feel to be on every town wagon and no scum ones at all throughout the entire game?

Only, I was.
LLD and SpyreX were both suspects of mine. And they're both dead scum.

[mastin2]

Why the hell would LLD traitor scum try to restart my wagon after it was down to two people and oversoul had jumped off?

if mastin is bookie he blew his second shot on you yesterday and we can lynch accordingly tomorrow.

and i think its very unlikely mastin is scum gambitting with a bookie shot.

Whatup kanye?

He's 1: trying to shift his initial Zepher suspicion back onto me, 2: while simultaneously pointing suspicion towards Kayne, 3: and to top it all off, these are consistent thoughts which do not contradict themselves; they both say "mastin is likely not scum".

[mastin2]

and called it a wagon on town.

Nope. I pointed out a worst-case-scenario where LLD was town, and proved how it was not justified and that no matter what, we would be fine today. LLD was a consistent scum-read of mine. (Except for that one period of time where I mis-remembered my notes. )

Weakest of my suspects (hence not lynching LLD two days ago), and for good reason--traitor instead of full mafia. You, on the other hand...

[mastin2]

You realize when I flip town mastin you agreed to quicklynch yourself right? Who do you plan on trying to lynch instead?

It won't happen, since you're scum. (Pursuing two suspects? Really? REALLY?!?) And I said it before, said it again--if you were somehow town, I'd accept the full consequences of my misread, accept that there'd be a 90% chance of me being lynched in 3p lylo.

Hence why my promise was a gambit. A gambit on you being scum, on you being just that confirmed mafia.

(If it did come up, I'd review the thread one final time, looking at the other two people alive, read the whole thread multiple times, and try to find out who it is for a personal victory. One last guess before accepting my defeat.
But it won't, since you're scum.)

[mastin2]

Cool i'm scum.

Why isn't it 100% chance? You won't be voting yourself mastin?

Whats the name? Who is it mastin?

I told you. I'm so sure of you being scum. That quite frankly.

I wouldn't know.

I'd have no clue. I'd have to constantly search, go across the thread multiple times to figure it out. Because I can't picture you flipping town. Any attempt shatters instantly. It's just like Alduskkel in Mini 1180. There's just no read to replace you.

And, hey, we get an admission.

[mastin2]

I answered.

Of course I'm not going to self-vote. Town, scum, regardless of my alignment, that's playing against my wincon.

I'd look for the scum. But I'd have no clue from the three. I wouldn't be able to start until I saw who was killed overnight, since I would be that unsure of myself if you flipped town. I'd wait until day.

But then, I'd have no clue among the remaining two. Not without research.

I can only say the same thing so many times. I honestly can't see any way you won't flip scum, Ludi. I can't picture a world beyond your lynch. I can't see the game continuing.

And I'm a writer. That's the kind of thing I do. I look into the future, see predicted outcomes. Yet when I look at you. I can't see beyond you. I can only see the game ending with your death. I can only see the town winning. I can only see you flipping scum. I can't see anything beyond that. I can't see who would be night-killed. (Other than it not being me. ) I can't see who would be scum. I can't see anything.

Other than you being scum.

You are as scum as you can be, to me, without a role. That's my 95% certainty. An honor rarely given to others. The level of certainty so high to create the effect mentioned, where I literally have nothing if I am wrong.

[mastin2]

No. One failure would not equate to permanent retirement. Merely indefinite reevaluation.

(Though, considering how my play evolves in every game...I kinda do that already.
But I'd be far more conservative.)

[mastin2]

Post your phone-number-sure, email-sure, change avatar-sure, change-signature sure, lynch yourself sure, or just some artifical number crap you made up to justify some silly desicion you made in your own certainty of youself that has no basis in reality?

None of the above.

I explained it in the clearest terms possible.

I'm a writer. My job is to envision the future. And I told you. I can't see beyond you. All I can see, is you flipping scum. I can't see anything else. I can't see you flipping town. I can't see it. There's no other words to describe how sure I am. Other than I literally cannot see anything else. That is what 95% is. I never go that high unless I mean it. (Heck, I rarely go above 85.)

[mastin2]

It's a collapsing universe of space mastin, your window of time is quickly being shut, now is the time to forever silence your critics and cast a wide net, unleash your fury on your multitude of doubters, of people who hate you and think you suck, of those who ignore, and slander, now is the time you can stand up and say, 'No, I was right, and I put my money where my mouth was. I was right!'.

Whats it going to be, mastin?

1: Scumclaim. You're admitting I'm right, here.

2: Following through on the above, isn't that what I've been doing?

I don't throw 95% around often for a dang-good reason. I can't see you flipping town. That's pretty much my ultimate expression of just. how. much. you. are. scum.

[mastin2]

Do note. With a Goon-Spy-flip, scum had no rolecop. In other words, scum had no way of knowing for sure LLD was scum. Using "I lynched LLD!" as an excuse is not valid, since he didn't KNOW for sure that LLD was scum.

Tl;dr?

VOTE: Magister Ludi. Third time's the charm.

[mastin2]

That was the hammer.

It's over, Ludi. Town wins.

[mastin2]

(Typed during the night, for the most part.)
I have no excuses. If you're expecting me to defend my play, I will not. Nothing justifies a failure of this magnitude. I was just that sure on Ludi. Everything fit into place, perfectly, with Ludi. It just made so much sense, as Ludi.

Yet it wasn't Ludi.

The gambit failed.


I'll accept, 100%, the entire blame for a town loss. Nobody else should receive any flak for what was completely and totally driven by me. I'll take all the criticisms. I'll take all the people calling me Honorary Scumbag. I'll accept pretty much half the playerlist vowing never to play with me again, due to my failure.

I deserve it all.


But before the game ends.

I do have one last request. Oversoul and MrZepher, please don't vote me, yet. If the voter is town, the scum quickhammers me for an instant scum victory. If the voter is scum, and the remaining player does not vote for me, then the voter is scum, and they've robbed me of my one last chance to find the scum. Of my last chance to get so much as a slimmer of redemption this game.

As scum, you know that you've likely already gotten a cheap victory, courtesy of me. Since you've gained that easy win, you can at least honor my last request and return the favor by letting me try to find you.

As town, you 'know' that I'm already 'caught scum', and won't be fighting my way out of a loss. You'll be voting me, anyway, so I have nothing to gain from waiting other than personal pride. It's something you'd understand if you were in my situation. That instead of achieving an actual victory, I'm looking for a personal one. If our situations were reversed, you'd be asking the same of me, to get one final chance, one final shot at finding the scum, even though it's in vain and you've already lost. And I'd grant it to you.


Kunk, I realize that you should be thinking I'm scum, too. And I realize you have no vote, no thanks to me. :/ But I do want your help. Assuming Oversoul and MrZepher agree to my request, I'd like you to give your feedback on who you think would be scum if you didn't think it was me.

(But, heck. I'd think I was scum if I didn't know I wasn't.)


Tl;dr?

I won't argue against my lynch. Within a weak, I fully expect to be dead, and for scum to win. I just want something to take from this game that wouldn't be a complete and total failure. To end on a high note. You can allow a defeated man that much, can't you?

[mastin2]

(For the curious, the only part I modified is where you see "Oversoul and MrZepher", I had "*survivor's names here*".)

Oh, and just for the record--I went into last night heavily leaning towards kayne/oversoul being the nightkill, and whoever lived among them to be more likely than Zepher to be the last scum.

[mastin2]

Since Kayne would probably analyze this, I suppose it's my job to take his place.

Really, really town

04. Mastin2
09.

SpyreX

Town

12.

Untrod Tripod

x
07.

Îdher

(Amrun + Ether hydra) x
05. Magister Ludi

Null

01.

Lady Lambdadelta

02. MrZepher
03.

dramonic

06.

kanyeknowsbest

13.

Chair

(implosion + Misder)
14.

T-Bone

x
15. Oversoul

Scum

16.

kunkstar7

17.

Yosarian2

08.

Hiraki

Really, really scum

10.

Ethos

(Slaxx + Regfan hydra)

Yosarian2

(8):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

Untrod Tripod

,

Chair

,

SpyreX

,

Empking

,

Hiraki

, MrZepher

Untrod Tripod

(9):

Chair

, mastin2,

T-Bone

,

Ethos

,

Hiraki

,

Magister Ludi

, MrZepher,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

Empking

(8):

SpyreX

,

Magister Ludi

,

T-Bone

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

Yosarian2

, Oversoul,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Empking

Chair

(6):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

,

LLD

Lady Lambdadelta

(5):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

, MrZepher,

Chair

, Oversoul

Other wagons of note
Ethos (5): kanyeknowsbest,

Untrod Tripod

,

Hiraki

,

SpyreX

, Mastin2
Empking (5):

Îdher

,

Ethos

,

kunkstar7

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Yosarian2

annnd i was waiting to post this. ludi not lookin too hot here. ive got more to say about that but ill save it til tomorrow.

Empking's list isn't very helpful, since from my view, the two are identical--both in null.

The order might be important, though. Might. If he did them most to least, then that makes a huge difference, but it's hard to tell if he did or not.

Looking at it, it looks like he just put in the playerlist from the first post and moved the town/really town/scum/really scum to their appropriate spots. So much for that idea.

Also, note that if the final scum is on Oversoul, every single scumbag in the game was on the Empking wagon. (I knew it was scum-driven, but was it really *THAT* scum driven?!?)

Did you seriously just imply that I wad scum?

That's what I believed when I typed the above, yes. But 1: I need to remain as objective as possible. I need to think things through as logically as I possibly can, since my instinct for the first time in forever has consistently been failing me. And 2: The above analysis kinda suggests you're not. All the scum on the Empking wagon was--as I mentioned at the time--something which seemed too bold for them to do.

[mastin2]

D'oh. There's *always* one mistake.

Town
12. Untrod Tripod x
07. Îdher (Amrun + Ether hydra) x
05. Magister Ludi

Ludi's name should be blue.

(Also, to elaborate on the above. I actually thought you were going to die, Oversoul, and that Kayne was the last scum. I knew no scum in their right minds would kill either me or Zepher, after all. I evaluated things and concluded it was possible Kayne was town and would die, but that it'd make you, Oversoul, more likely to be scum due to it. Yet now I'm doubting that.

I hate this. I hate being so weak. So doubtful. I'm used to being so confident, so sure of myself. Ludi's had the ultimate psychological victory over me, in that regard. But it's what happened.)

[mastin2]

Make that two.

Other wagons of note
Ethos (5): kanyeknowsbest,

Kayne's name should be blue as well.

Still, that doesn't change the situation. Let's remove the fluff.

Yosarian2 (8): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher
Untrod Tripod (9): mastin2, MrZepher,
Empking (8): SpyreX, Oversoul, Lady Lambdadelta, Empking
Chair (6): SpyreX, mastin2, LLD
Lady Lambdadelta (5): MrZepher, Oversoul

Other wagons of note
Ethos (5): SpyreX, Mastin2
Empking (5): Lady Lambdadelta

If you don't understand what I just did, I just removed all the town names from there, leaving only unconfirmed and scum. It's a little easier to get perspective on things that way. It also shows we have some conflicting data.
-The Yos2 wagon is obviously scum-driven. You can tell that; it has 3/4 confirmed scum. For the final scum to be me or Zepher, that'd mean all four scum went onto the Yosarian2 wagon, which makes less sense than even Empking.
-The Empking wagon was also scum-driven; it ALSO has 3/4 confirmed scum. For the final scum to be Oversoul, that'd ALSO mean all four scum were on a wagon, in this case, bussing Empking.

The two essentially invalidate the VCA for those wagons, since they counter each other. The Empking one looks more likely, admittedly, but that conflicts with the UT wagon, which strongly suggests at least one scum, since the wagon shouldn't have been all-town.

A tl;dr version?

This VCA is contradicting itself, and therefore, I'm not going to be able to learn anything from it.


Oversoul: it was me who led that. I alone was responsible.

[mastin2]

I'm going to try and widen the scale. Do every single mod-listed votecount. Believe it or not, I've only done it on this kind of a scale, this late in the game, once before in my entire career--and that was as an alt.

Though we technically have four alive, this is effectively 3p lylo. I can count the number of times that's happened on a single hand.
-Once (town) as an alt. I used a similar strategy to point towards the last scum. I didn't use VCA exclusively, so nor shall I use it exclusively this game.
-Once (town) when I was invited into the 3P lylo. I came in, on the day of lylo, read my predecessor's ISO, along with the ISO of flipped scum, and a few pages which I skimmed, plus my fellow replacers and their replacees' isos. I was about 70% confident enough in my read, not enough to cast the first vote--I tricked the scum into voting me first, allowing me to jump up to 100% and vote back.
-Once (scum) in a Marathon, where I dayvigged my partner the second I was capable of doing so and basically coasted to the endgame.

That's it. (When you play the way I do, you tend not to live for very long. )


So, I'm going to be trying to take examples from the first two. The second one is what I attempted to do on replacing in--but never finished. The first one I think I'll review, see what I did there.

I'm going to give this game my all to try and find out who it is. 'Cause really, I'm clueless. It's really 50/50. (Okay. So it varies. Sometimes, I'll see something which tips the scales to 55/45, or even 60/40. Then something which tips it the other way. To 45/55 or even 40/60. And then with the two conflicting images in my mind, it resets to be 50/50. So effectively 50/50. )

I've done this before. (Not often, but it's happened.) I can do it again. (The time as an alt was a relatively fast game with pretty short deadlines. I think Days were only a week long. So, I'll inflict a self-challenge to beat my old record [something like six days] and do it in only five.)

[mastin2]

I'll also be reviewing my old notes. See what I can dig up there. In Desert Mafia, I was basically completely lost in the situation, for instance, and read my notes. My notes were awesome, in that they contained the entire scumteam, which I now was more sure of thanks to having the additional info.

I sincerely doubt I have that in my notes for this game, but you never know until you look! (I am so neglectful of my notes... )

[mastin2]

Alright.

This is just creeping me out.

The confirmed town player is showing suspicions of me.
Yet both the other players with votes are calling me town. In practically an identical manner, no less. (Honestly, if Zepher had shown suspicion of me, I'd be thinking a lot stronger that he was town and Oversoul was scum. But BOTH calling me town?!? You're not making this easy on me. >_<)

More comments later

Looking forward to this, since I

do

need some help, here. No matter how much I try to keep to traditional "sane" views, I'm Mastin. Standard Logic is not my strongsuit.

[mastin2]

Oh, and random note:

Mastin is being "I just fucked up. OMG." Mastin (which means he's town), as opposed to "I messed up, BUT..." Mastin (which would mean he's scum)
They may SEEM similar, but there's a distinct difference. Town Mastin is willing to take a step back and see wtf just happened.

Ironically enough, in my Guide To Scumhunting, in the Tone section, I have a section on "change in tone", which says that changing from confident to doubtful is harder to fake as scum, whereas keeping confidence is overall null since it's easier to fake as scum but still comes from legitimate townies.

...That makes more sense when you see the wording in the Guide. But needless to say, this is actually the exact scenario you describe. "Wrong but continues on, anyway" isn't itself scummy, in that arrogant town does it just as often as scum faking arrogant town, but it is easier for the scum to pull off convincingly. Essentially, "easier to ignore your mistakes than address them".

"Wrong and suddenly shows extreme doubt" isn't itself a town-tell, but it's harder for scum to fake because, well, they already knew they were wrong before.

Essentially, exactly what you said. It's easier to go, "I messed up, BUT..." than it is to go, "...I...screwed up......" (Bonus points for those who can figure out what that's a quote of. Loved that show.) I might work your wording into my guide, so thanks for the inspiration.

(Of course, by revealing that I knew the difference between them before-hand, I kinda invalidate your tell and make it null. )

Anyway, I've gotten through about five or so of my VCAs. (I've been doing other things, for the most part.) I'll post them when I finish. They'll be IIoA at first, since it's hard to actually see useful information without actually seeing the colors, which I can only do after posting. I'll analyze after posting, naturally. (But so far, I've made a discovery which tipped the scales!
...To 51/49. )

[mastin2]

Make up your dang minds, already. Am I scum or aren't I? >_<

Oh, and for the record, I will not be voting Zepher. Not until I've finished my work at a minimum. (And maybe not even then. The 51 is Oversoul, not Zepher. And even with that, 51 is far too low. Hence, my need to finish.) I've gotten to Day Two.

I've read (well, skimmed--was so tired I had to take a nap after it) one of my inspirations and have some ideas to take from there in scumhunting. (Some of my ideas then are the polar opposite of what they are now, so obviously won't be using those. But there are some gems* which I have lost to my old age, so to speak. )

Spoiler: *rambling

(Eventually, I plan to retire from playing Mafia. At least, as a player. And even then, this won't happen for a long time. I want to keep playing for AT LEAST one more year, and heck, I might keep playing for ten years. But eventually, I will be retiring.

And when I do, I want to do something ambitious. I want to analyze every single game I was a player in. Note things I did well, note things I did poorly, note other things, note what others did well, note what others did poorly, note other miscellaneous things, include my MD theories and apply a similar process, essentially, a complete life's story of my play on this site.

The end result I'm hoping would give people an excellent insight into the game, allow people to better have an insight into my mind, and most interestingly, an insight into how the game has changed over the years, both as a site, and as a player. Like I said, it's ambitious, will probably be incredibly time-consuming, and might be considered worthless to others, but I find the idea fascinating. "Lost Scumhunting Gems" is among the things this essential soul-search would allow me to see.)

[mastin2]

Oh, and I'm sure

someone

will ask, be it dead QT, alive currently, or post-game, about what I see my play in this game as, overall. It really depends on the outcome.

Spoiler: this is another long ramble

-If I nail the last scum through my hard work, but am lynched, I'd call it a Bittersweet Defeat. On the one hand, I managed to nail three of the scum and was exactly where I needed to be on the fourth (AKA, not on the wagon). I did what needed to be done, overall, and in the end I got my reads correct. That still isn't quite enough to counter-balance the failures, though. I only got so many successes after the chain of failures I had. Yosarian2, UT, Empking-as-town, Chair, and--of course--Magister Ludi. With lingering suspicions of Kayne as well. There's no way I could call my successes equal to the failures, especially since my greatest one in this scenario costs the town their win.

-If I got the scum correct, and somehow managed to lynch them, then I'd call it even. Yes, I realize after all the above is said and done, you'd think I'd still call this game an overall failure. But the logic behind here is, that when all is said and done, I got the job accomplished and won the game for the town, in the end.

This is, of course, a rather poor justification. But, come on, let me have *some* dignity left! (I thought it through when I reviewed my previous 3p lylo game as my alt. At the time, I was honored--I had managed to survive to my first-ever endgame instead of being killed before then! I was humble after the game, and pointed out how--while I did inevitably win the game--it was more through the effort of all the dead players than through me. But thinking it through, it should've been the greatest disgrace ever. Living to 3P lylo isn't the honor I thought it was. Yes, it gives you the chance to hammer the scum. Yes, it leaves the game in the palms of your hand. Yes, it means that ultimately, you could theoretically claim responsibility for the town's victory.

But, come on. To get to 3P lylo means you need to have dodged the NKs. As a Power Role, sure, that's gamebreaking. As a VT, it means you've essentially earned a seal of approval from the scum labelling you "one of the two scummiest townies in the whole game". [You know the saying. "Scum bring who they want to lylo"...] Who would want to take honor in that?)

...Of course, there is a third option. I tend not to think of that one, since it's...well...quite unpleasant. I get my scum guess wrong. Regardless of whether my guess or me is lynched, it means that when it came down to the correct time, I missed. Any, ANY way of saying, "Mastin didn't cost the town the game" instantly vanishes. Theoretically (see the massive ramble above on the subject), you can say my play wasn't that bad up to this point. (I say it is, pretty much the whole dead QT probably agrees, and I'm sure the scum were thinking it. But still, THEORETICALLY...) Yet if I guess incorrectly? Yeah, there's no theory left. The loss is purely on me. No doubt, no ways out. No excuse for hammering wrong.

If it happened, then I WOULD have completely and utterly, totally failed. All the good is washed out the window in the end if you inevitably have a bad ending.


That's why I really want to find the last scum. My pride doesn't want to be further injured. If I guess wrong, I have to accept that this is my first ever complete failure as town. (Pride damaged. Not beyond repair, but certainly will haunt me for a very long time.) If I guess right but am still lynched, I'm personally content, but obviously still bitter at the same time and not to amused at how much people will rant at me for not fighting harder, or for making a gambit in the first place (I have a one-gambit-per-game limit in place. No more [ends badly, ends very, VERY badly!], but also no less. ) , or some other miscellaneous complaint. (If this happens, I'd say it's...well, pride has been slightly wounded, but will heal. Very close to neutral, but still negative.) The only way I can keep my pride unscathed (or if I were in an arrogant mood [oh, HECK no! ], actually increase it ) is to get it right and somehow lynch them.

I am not optimistic, but I have to try. Personal victory, and all that. I. just. can't. fail. that. badly.

[mastin2]

What. The. Fuck. Mastin.

Not helping my damn read on you. >_>

What are you saying WTF to?

Also, (probably related) if you can, would you mind stating the second paragraph a little more explicitly?

(I'll explain when I get to the current posts in my elaborate process. VCA comes first, readthrough second [probably at the end of here], and then a whole lotta ISOs to finish off third.

I need to be more thorough than I've ever been before.)

[mastin2]

As veterans of Mastin know, I keep my notes in a Quicktopic for convenience. Unfortunately, quicktopics have this annoying four-link-per-post-limit.

So, I'm going to write up a post in here containing links to every single votecount in this game. (Why? Just advice I'm copying from my past-alt-self. It helped me when I was playing back then, to have a convenient link to a specific votecount I could come back to at any time without searching for it.)

It's of course part of my incoming VCA. (So, blatant IioA. The extra work will be worth it, though, in the long-run.)


votecount 1 (isolation #7, post 73).

votecount 2 (isolation #8, 145).

votecount 3 (isolation #9, 199).

VC 4 (isolation #10, 328).

VC 5 (isolation #11, 403).

VC 6 (isolation #14, 443).

VC 7 (isolation #18, 494).

VC 8 (isolation #20, 610).

VC 9 (isolation #23, 744).

VC 10 (isolation #25, 772). (It was annoying that Swag was still listed instead of Zepher so I still had to edit Swag's name into Zepher.)

VC 11 (isolation #26, 775).

VC 12, LYNCH (isolation #27, 815).

Votecount 2-1 (13) (isolation #30, 882).

VC 2-2 (14) (isolation #31, 904).

VC 2-3 (15), LYNCH (isolation #32, 917).

VC 3-1 (16) (isolation #36, 933).

VC 3-2 (17) (isolation #37, 964).

VC 3-3 (18) (isolation #38, 984).

VC 3-4 (19) (isolation #40, 1000).

VC 3-5 (20) (isolation #42, 1027).

VC 3-6 (21) (isolation #43, 1096).

VC 3-7 (22) (isolation #44, 1107).

VC 3-8 (23) (isolation #45, 1139).

VC 3-9 (24) (isolation #46, 1179).

VC 3-10 (25) (isolation #50, 1251).

VC 3-11 (26) (isolation #51, 1305).

VC 3-12 (27) (isolation #52, 1355).

VC 3-13 (28), LYNCH (isolation #53, 1365).

VC 4-1 (29) (isolation #56, 1384).

VC 4-2 (30) (isolation #57, 1413).

VC 4-3 (31) (isolation #58, 1429).

VC 4-4 (32) (isolation #59, 1468).

VC 4-5 (33) (isolation #60, 1476).

VC 4-6 (34) (isolation #61, 1529).

VC 4-7 (35) (isolation #62, 1620).

VC 4-8 (36), LYNCH (isolation #63, 1642).


Those are the last official votecounts under Reck. But we have a backup mod.

VC 5-1 (37), LYNCH (isolation #1 [Faraday], 1730).

And one more important bookmark.

1490, isolation #91 (kanyeknowsbest).


This is about as thorough as I can get, short of including the page number.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: Every Votecount We've Had

Lady Lambdadelta

(2):

Chair

, mastin2

Chair

(1):

T-Bone
T-Bone

(1):

kanyeknowsbest
kanyeknowsbest

(1):

Yosarian2
Yosarian2

(1):

Lady Lambdadelta

Ethos

(2):

Empking

,

Hiraki
Hiraki

(1):

dramonic
Îdher

(3): Oversoul,

SpyreX

,

Untrod Tripod

MrZepher (1):

kunkstar7

mastin2 (1):

Ethos
Magister Ludi

(1):

Magister Ludi

Not voting: MrZepher,

Îdher

Chair

(1):

T-Bone
Yosarian2

(6):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

Untrod Tripod

,

Chair

,

SpyreX

,

Empking

Hiraki

(2):

dramonic

,

kanyeknowsbest
Îdher

(2): Oversoul,

Hiraki

MrZepher (1):

kunkstar7

mastin2 (1):

Ethos
Magister Ludi

(1):

Magister Ludi

Oversoul (1):

Yosarian2

Not voting: MrZepher,

Îdher

Interesting Note, This suggests the scum have no problem voting next to each other on a significant bandwagon. Spy and Empking shared the same wagon, both bandwagoning Yosarian2's slot.

Chair

(1):

T-Bone
Yosarian2

(7):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

Untrod Tripod

,

Chair

,

SpyreX

,

Empking

, MrZepher

Hiraki

(2):

dramonic

,

kanyeknowsbest
Îdher

(1): Oversoul
MrZepher (1):

kunkstar7
Magister Ludi

(1):

Magister Ludi

Oversoul (1):

Yosarian2
kanyeknowsbest

(1):

Ethos

Not voting:

Îdher

,

Hiraki

They're willing to do two in a row. Are they really willing to do three?!?

Chair

(1):

T-Bone
Yosarian2

(6):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

Untrod Tripod

,

Chair

,

Empking

, MrZepher

Hiraki

(1):

dramonic
Îdher

(1): Oversoul
MrZepher (1):

kunkstar7
Magister Ludi

(1):

Magister Ludi

Oversoul (1):

Yosarian2
kanyeknowsbest

(1):

Ethos
Ethos

(2):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

Not voting:

Îdher

,

Hiraki

Chair

(1):

T-Bone
Yosarian2

(6): mastin2,

Empking

, MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

,

SpyreX

,

Yosarian2
Hiraki

(1):

dramonic
Îdher

(1): Oversoul
MrZepher (2):

kunkstar7

,

Lady Lambdadelta

kanyeknowsbest

(1):

Ethos
Ethos

(3):

kanyeknowsbest

,

Untrod Tripod

,

Hiraki

Empking

(1):

Îdher

Not voting:

Chair

Chair

(1):

T-Bone
Yosarian2

(4):

Empking

, MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

, mastin2

Hiraki

(1):

dramonic
Îdher

(1): Oversoul
MrZepher (1):

Lady Lambdadelta

kanyeknowsbest

(1):

Ethos
Ethos

(4):

kanyeknowsbest

,

Untrod Tripod

,

Hiraki

,

SpyreX

Empking

(2):

Îdher

,

Yosarian2

Lady Lambdadelta

(1):

kunkstar7

Not voting:

Chair

Chair

(1):

T-Bone
Yosarian2

(4):

Empking

, MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

, mastin2

Hiraki

(1):

dramonic
Îdher

(1): Oversoul

kanyeknowsbest

(1):

Ethos
Ethos

(4):

kanyeknowsbest

,

Untrod Tripod

,

Hiraki

,

SpyreX

Empking

(2):

Îdher

,

Yosarian2

Lady Lambdadelta

(1):

kunkstar7

Not voting:

Chair

,

Lady Lambdadelta

Chair

(1):

T-Bone
Yosarian2

(2): MrZepher,

Magister Ludi
Hiraki

(2):

dramonic

,

Empking

Îdher

(1): Oversoul

Ethos

(4):

kanyeknowsbest

,

Untrod Tripod

,

Hiraki

, mastin2

Empking

(3):

Îdher

,

Yosarian2

,

Ethos

Lady Lambdadelta

(1):

kunkstar7

Not voting:

Chair

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

SpyreX

Yosarian2

(3): MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

,

Untrod Tripod
Hiraki

(2):

dramonic

,

Empking

Îdher

(1): Oversoul

Empking

(5):

Îdher

,

Ethos

,

kunkstar7

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Yosarian2

Oversoul (1):

Hiraki
Chair

(1):

SpyreX

Untrod Tripod

(2):

Chair

, mastin2

Not voting:

kanyeknowsbest

,

T-Bone

NOTE: This is presumably the votecount where kayne got the Empking wagon statistic from. He was more or less correct in it being all-town, minus the half-scum LLD.

Yosarian2

(4): MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

,

Untrod Tripod

,

Empking

Hiraki

(1):

dramonic
Îdher

(1): Oversoul

Empking

(3):

kunkstar7

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Yosarian2
Chair

(1):

SpyreX

Untrod Tripod

(5):

Chair

, mastin2,

T-Bone

,

Ethos

,

Hiraki

Not voting:

kanyeknowsbest

,

Îdher

Yosarian2

(3): MrZepher,

Untrod Tripod

,

Empking

Hiraki

(1):

dramonic
Îdher

(1): Oversoul

Empking

(3):

kunkstar7

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Yosarian2
Chair

(1):

SpyreX

Untrod Tripod

(6):

Chair

, mastin2,

T-Bone

,

Ethos

,

Hiraki

,

Magister Ludi

Not voting:

kanyeknowsbest

,

Îdher

Yosarian2

(2):

Untrod Tripod

,

Empking

Hiraki

(1):

dramonic
Îdher

(1): Oversoul

Empking

(1):

Lady Lambdadelta

Chair

(2):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest
Untrod Tripod

(9):

Chair

, mastin2,

T-Bone

,

Ethos

,

Hiraki

,

Magister Ludi

, MrZepher,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

Magister Ludi

(1):

Îdher

NOTE: The UT wagon is one of Kayne's important wagons.

Empking

(5):

SpyreX

,

Magister Ludi

,

T-Bone

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

Yosarian2

Oversoul (1):

Hiraki
kanyeknowsbest

(1): mastin2

Not voting:

Lady Lambdadelta

, MrZepher,

dramonic

,

Îdher

,

Empking

,

Chair

, Oversoul,

kunkstar7

Empking

(6):

SpyreX

,

Magister Ludi

,

T-Bone

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

Yosarian2

, Oversoul
Oversoul (1):

Hiraki
kanyeknowsbest

(1): mastin2

Hiraki

(1):

Empking

Not voting:

Lady Lambdadelta

, MrZepher,

dramonic

,

Îdher

,

Chair

,

kunkstar7

Empking

(8):

SpyreX

,

Magister Ludi

,

T-Bone

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

Yosarian2

, Oversoul,

Hiraki

,

Lady Lambdadelta

kanyeknowsbest

(1): mastin2

Hiraki

(1):

Empking

Not voting:

Lady Lambdadelta

, MrZepher,

dramonic

,

Îdher

,

Chair

,

kunkstar7

NOTE: This is one of Kayne's important wagons. (Obviously.) This also isn't what Kayne's votecount says, and quite frankly, I trust Kayne's version more. Still, either way, it's important.

Yosarian2

(2):

kanyeknowsbest

,

Magister Ludi

Not voting: Everyone else (

SpyreX

, mastin2,

Chair

,

Yosarian2

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Îdher

, Oversoul,

kunkstar7

, MrZepher)

Yosarian2

(2):

kanyeknowsbest

,

Magister Ludi
Chair

(1):

SpyreX

kanyeknowsbest

(2): mastin2,

Chair

MrZepher (1):

Yosarian2

Not voting:

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Îdher

, Oversoul,

kunkstar7

, MrZepher

Note to self, look more into Yosarian2. I think you can guess why.

Chair

(2):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest
kanyeknowsbest

(3): mastin2,

Chair

,

Lady Lambdadelta

MrZepher (1):

Yosarian2

Not voting:

Îdher

, Oversoul,

kunkstar7

, MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

Chair

(2):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest
kanyeknowsbest

(3): mastin2,

Chair

,

Lady Lambdadelta

MrZepher (1):

Yosarian2

Lady Lambdadelta

(1):

kunkstar7

Not voting:

Îdher

, Oversoul, MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

Chair

(2):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest
kanyeknowsbest

(3): mastin2,

Chair

,

Lady Lambdadelta

MrZepher (1):

Yosarian2

Lady Lambdadelta

(1):

kunkstar7

Not voting:

Îdher

, Oversoul, MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

Chair

(3):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2

kanyeknowsbest

(2):

Chair

,

Lady Lambdadelta

MrZepher (2):

Yosarian2

,

Magister Ludi

Lady Lambdadelta

(2):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

Not voting: Oversoul, MrZepher

Interesting how both Oversoul and Zepher aren't voting. Also completely worthless to me.

Chair

(3):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2

kanyeknowsbest

(2):

Chair

,

Lady Lambdadelta

MrZepher (2):

Yosarian2

,

Magister Ludi

Lady Lambdadelta

(2):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

Not voting: Oversoul, MrZepher

Chair

(3):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2

kanyeknowsbest

(1):

Lady Lambdadelta

MrZepher (2):

Yosarian2

,

Magister Ludi

Lady Lambdadelta

(5):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

, MrZepher,

Chair

, Oversoul

I BELIEVE this was one of Kayne's important ones. It's another example of both Zepher and oversoul together. :/

3-9 (24) (isolation #46, 1179) is as far as I can tell identical to 3-8 (23) above, so I'll be skipping it.

Chair

(4):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2,

Yosarian2
kanyeknowsbest

(1):

LLD

MrZepher (1):

Magister Ludi

Lady Lambdadelta

(4):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

, MrZepher,

Chair

Not voting: Oversoul

Chair

(4):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2,

Yosarian2
kanyeknowsbest

(2):

LLD

,

Chair

MrZepher (1):

Magister Ludi

Lady Lambdadelta

(2):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

Not voting: Oversoul, MrZepher

Chair

(5):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7
kanyeknowsbest

(2):

LLD

,

Chair

MrZepher (1):

Magister Ludi

Lady Lambdadelta

(1):

Îdher

Not voting: Oversoul, MrZepher

Chair

(6):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

,

LLD

kanyeknowsbest

(1):

Chair

MrZepher (1):

Magister Ludi

Lady Lambdadelta

(1):

Îdher

Not voting: Oversoul, MrZepher

kanyeknowsbest

(1): Oversoul
Oversoul (1):

LLD

SpyreX

(1): mastin2

Not voting: MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

Îdher

,

SpyreX

,

kunkstar7

Just a note. LLD's slot has been fond of bussing previously, but I recall one or two wagons LLD's slot voted on which are confirmed town. Will need to look into further.

Oversoul (1):

LLD

Magister Ludi

(3):

Îdher

, Oversoul, mastin2

Not voting: MrZepher,

Magister Ludi

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

SpyreX

,

kunkstar7

Oversoul (1):

LLD

Magister Ludi

(3):

Îdher

, Oversoul, mastin2
mastin2 (1): MrZepher

LLD

(2):

kunkstar7

,

SpyreX

Not voting:

Magister Ludi

,

kanyeknowsbest

Oversoul (1):

LLD

Magister Ludi

(3):

Îdher

, Oversoul, mastin2
mastin2 (1):

Magister Ludi

LLD

(2):

kunkstar7

,

SpyreX

Not voting:

kanyeknowsbest

, MrZepher

To my knowledge, 4-5 (33) (isolation #60, 1476) is identical to the above.

Oversoul (1):

LLD

Magister Ludi

(3):

Îdher

, Oversoul, mastin2
mastin2 (1):

Magister Ludi

LLD

(2):

kunkstar7

,

SpyreX

MrZepher (1):

kanyeknowsbest

Not voting: MrZepher

Of note, Kayne votes Zepher. This will also need looking in to.

Magister Ludi

(3):

Îdher

, mastin2,

LLD
LLD

(1):

kunkstar7

MrZepher (2):

Magister Ludi

,

SpyreX

Not voting: MrZepher, Oversoul,

kanyeknowsbest

Magister Ludi

(3): mastin2,

LLD
LLD

(5):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

SpyreX

,

Magister Ludi

Not voting: MrZepher, Oversoul

Magister Ludi

(3): mastin2, MrZepher, Oversoul
MrZepher (1)

Magister Ludi

Not voting:

Kanyeknowsbest

Yosarian2

(8):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

Untrod Tripod

,

Chair

,

SpyreX

,

Empking

,

Hiraki

, MrZepher

Untrod Tripod

(9):

Chair

, mastin2,

T-Bone

,

Ethos

,

Hiraki

,

Magister Ludi

, MrZepher,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

Empking

(8):

SpyreX

,

Magister Ludi

,

T-Bone

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

Yosarian2

, Oversoul,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Empking

Chair

(6):

SpyreX

,

kanyeknowsbest

, mastin2,

Yosarian2

,

kunkstar7

,

LLD
Lady Lambdadelta

(5):

kunkstar7

,

Îdher

, MrZepher,

Chair

, Oversoul

Other wagons of note

Ethos

(5):

kanyeknowsbest

,

Untrod Tripod

,

Hiraki

,

SpyreX

, Mastin2

Empking

(5):

Îdher

,

Ethos

,

kunkstar7

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Yosarian2

And to finish off, interesting wagons with the fluff cut out:

Yosarian2

(6):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

SpyreX

,

Empking

Îdher

(2): Oversoul,
MrZepher (1):

kunkstar7

mastin2 (1):

Ethos

Oversoul (1):

Yosarian2

Not voting: MrZepher,

Yosarian2

(7):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

SpyreX

,

Empking

, MrZepher

Îdher

(1): Oversoul
MrZepher (1):

kunkstar7

Oversoul (1):

Yosarian2

Yosarian2

(2):

Empking

Îdher

(1): Oversoul

Empking

(1):

Lady Lambdadelta

Chair

(2):

SpyreX

,

Untrod Tripod

(9): mastin2, MrZepher,

Yosarian2

(8):

Lady Lambdadelta

, mastin2,

SpyreX

,

Empking

, MrZepher

Untrod Tripod

(9): mastin2, MrZepher,

Empking

(8):

SpyreX

, Oversoul,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Empking

Chair

(6):

SpyreX

, mastin2,

LLD
Lady Lambdadelta

(5): MrZepher, Oversoul

Other wagons of note

Ethos

(5):

SpyreX

, Mastin2

Empking

(5):

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Of course, as I said before, the only way I'll be able to analyze this all is to post it and work from there.

[mastin2]

This will take a while. I do remember there was something in my initial impression which tipped the scales further. To something like 53/47, Oversoul/Zepher. (Might've been the "three in a row", and/or LLD's attitude, and/or something else I thought I saw but currently don't remember.)

But, well. I have a feeling, a horrible feeling, that no matter how hard I try, it's going to come down to one deciding factor:

Yosarian2 (8): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher
Untrod Tripod (9): mastin2, MrZepher,
Empking (8): SpyreX, Oversoul, Lady Lambdadelta, Empking

Whether I decide it's more likely that all four scum were on Empking (which'd therefore mean zero on UT), or all four scum on Yosarian2. (Which'd also by proxy imply one scum on UT.)

Even if I can't figure anything useful from the VCA itself, I'm positive I can find more in the VCA to give me a nudge in the right direction for reading--give me a few pointers, a few tips for reading. You know, like Yosarian2/Kayne and see if I can guess why they died.

Five days until deadline. *breathes in deeply*

I can do this. I can pin it down. (It's not easy. I'm telling you, in this situation, with the information I have available, you'd most likely be having the same extreme difficulties I am.) One analysis of the VCA (I think that has to be one of the better laid-out VCAs I've ever done), one re-read, maybe some final ISOs to confirm things.

I'll figure it out. I promised myself, and I owe it to the town to get this right. It's my duty, my job, to not screw up right now.

Kunk, once more, I'd like to ask of you to please remain my effective anchor--keep me in "standard logic town", and don't let me drift into Mastin-Logic. (Also, stop me if you think I'm letting my impulsive instincts interfere with my reads; that's actually worse than me using unconventional logic. )

[mastin2]

D'oh.

There's one thing my VCA will not be able to accurately observe unless I make note of it.

By my count, we've had four replacements which're relevant to the situation:
LLD's slot, LLD's slot a second time, Empking's slot, and Zepher's slot.

Specifically, when looking at Empking's slot, I need to look for if his slot's voting habits changed upon him coming in, or if they overall remained the same. The former suggests that either the scum had no plan or Empking said "screw the plan". The latter implies that the scum DID have a plan, and that Empking kept to it when replacing in.

This is relevant, because if I see evidence of Empking's slot overall remaining the same, then I can apply that same technique for Zepher's slot: if the pattern changed, then Zepher is either town or scum who said "screw the plan". If it remains the same, it is strong evidence against Zepher.


Oh, and obviously, while the "scum plan" doesn't apply to LLD (not having access to the scum QT, obviously), I still need to observe how that slot's three players played differently. If I see them acting overall the same, or if I see them acting pretty much in completely opposite ways, it suggests the same thing. (In other words, at either extreme, I get a clear answer. If it's in the middle...eh, less so.) For instance, I noted that LLD's slot under at least one of its players was fond of bussing. If that trend stayed the same, then LLD's slot's votes become more important. If that trend were reversed, then it'd imply LLD's votes were on town.

If that trend remained...oh, somewhere in the middle......well, I can't think of any way to make that info actually useful. But still, this means I need to observe exactly where the four relevant replacements are.

[mastin2]

between isolation 14 (443) and isolation 18 (494) is where Sapo (LLD's slot) comes in. Between that and isolation 20 (610) is where Empking comes in.

Between isolation 23 (744) and islation 25 (772) is where Zepher comes in. Though, if I'm interpreting Reck's view on replacements correctly (their name isn't listed on the VC until they've posted--

am I correct, Mod?

), Zepher didn't start posting until just before isolation 27 (815).

Between isolation 46 (1179) and isolation 50 (1251) is where LLD comes in.

I'll do a quick cross-reference with my votecounts to see between what votecounts these are.

Between Votecounts 6 and 7-->Saporo (LLD's slot) replaces Mask.
Between Votecounts 7 and 8-->Empking replaces Quillford.
Between Votecounts 9 and 10-->Zepher replaces Swag. His name isn't displayed on votecounts until Votecount 12, though.
Between Votecounts 3-8/9 (23/4) and 3-10 (25)-->LLD comes in.

With these out of the way, I can observe properly any and all changes.

[mastin2]

Yosarian2 (1): Lady Lambdadelta

Mask did not bus.

Îdher (3): Oversoul, SpyreX, Untrod Tripod

As noted in one of my votecounts around here (believe it was VC2), the scum have no problem at this stage of the game voting together. This is evidence against Oversoul.

Yosarian2 (6): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, Untrod Tripod, Chair, SpyreX, Empking

As mentioned, SpyreX and Quillford/Empking obviously didn't have trouble voting next to each other. It figures that this applies to the previous votecount as well.

Yosarian2 (7): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, Untrod Tripod, Chair, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher

This is the rival wagon to Empking, in that either this wagon contains all the scum, or the Empking wagon contains all the scum. If Swag/Zepher were scum, then that'd mean three scum voted back-to-back on the wagon. I find that a little hard to believe. But...

Yosarian2 (6): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, Untrod Tripod, Chair, Empking, MrZepher
Ethos (2): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest

SpyreX flees from the wagon once Swag/Zepher joins. This makes it a little more believable. (But still a stretch.)

Yosarian2 (6): mastin2, Empking, MrZepher, Magister Ludi, SpyreX, Yosarian2

And SpyreX is back on the wagon. Honestly, I'm not sure whether that implies he has no fear (Swag/Zepher is town), or if he thinks that by putting distance between the scum names, he'll look better. I'm kinda leaning towards the former, but I think that checking SpyreX's posts around this time will be of great help. Look for the tone in them--fear/panic suggest Zepher is scum. Calmness suggests he is not.

Yosarian2 (4): Empking, MrZepher, Magister Ludi, mastin2
Ethos (4): kanyeknowsbest, Untrod Tripod, Hiraki, SpyreX

And SpyreX is back off again, for some reason.

This is the last Mask votecount; after this, it becomes Saporo. Mask's first vote was Yosarian2. Where Mask parked the vote until

MrZepher (2): kunkstar7, Lady Lambdadelta

Here. If Mask was against bussing, this strongly implies Zepher is town.

Not voting: Chair, Lady Lambdadelta

Saporo unvoted here.

Hiraki (2): dramonic, Empking
Not voting: Chair, Lady Lambdadelta, SpyreX

Note that this is the first votecount with Empking (1-7 were Quillford). He immediately changes from the Yosarian2 mislynch-wagon to a smaller, safer Hiraki mislynch-not-really-wagon. Additionally, note how SpyreX unvotes at the same time. This might've sparked Sapo's next course of action...

Empking (5): Îdher, Ethos, kunkstar7, Lady Lambdadelta, Yosarian2
Chair (1): SpyreX

...Where Saporo busses. SpyreX also goes for a safe Chair vote. This implies to me that he was worried. Why not go for a larger wagon?

MrZepher, Magister Ludi, Untrod Tripod
Hiraki (2): dramonic, Empking
Empking (5): Îdher, Ethos, kunkstar7, Lady Lambdadelta, Yosarian2
Untrod Tripod (2): Chair, mastin2

He avoids the wagon Zepher's slot is on. He avoids joining Empking (in stark contrast to his earlier attitude), and obviously doesn't want to join the Empking wagon.

Note, that this is where Zepher comes in.

MrZepher, Magister Ludi, Untrod Tripod, Empking
Îdher (1): Oversoul
Empking (3): kunkstar7, Lady Lambdadelta, Yosarian2
Chair (1): SpyreX
Untrod Tripod (5): Chair, mastin2, T-Bone, Ethos, Hiraki

Note that--like last votecount--both SpyreX and Oversoul are on relatively safe wagons. Idher and Chair both have zero support. This is in contrast with Yosarian2 and UT. Yosarian2 had Empking on it. It also had Zepher on it as well.

I quite frankly can't make sense of their actions here.

Wait, just thought of something. The Empking wagon died because of Empking's vig claim. Once Empking claimed vig, all the scum (including sapo) would presumably know that Empking was going to be lynched Day Two. That might mean they showed caution towards joining him.

You'd think this'd make Zepher more town, but note what happens to Zepher's vote the first time he's listed on the votecount instead of Swag:

Yosarian2 (2): Untrod Tripod, Empking
Îdher (1): Oversoul
Empking (1): Lady Lambdadelta
Chair (2): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest
Untrod Tripod (9): Chair, mastin2, T-Bone, Ethos, Hiraki, Magister Ludi, MrZepher, Yosarian2, kunkstar7

He got off, and in fact, went the opposite way. In other words, null.

Empking (8): SpyreX, Magister Ludi, T-Bone, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2, Oversoul, Hiraki, Lady Lambdadelta
kanyeknowsbest (1): mastin2
Hiraki (1): Empking

Not voting: Lady Lambdadelta, MrZepher, dramonic, Îdher, Chair, kunkstar7

Not sure how accurate this is. So... *pulls up Kayne's*

Empking (8): SpyreX, Magister Ludi, T-Bone, kanyeknowsbest, Yosarian2, Oversoul, Lady Lambdadelta, Empking

The only difference between the two is that the official has Hiraki on and Empking off (Sapo as the hammer), whereas Kayne's has Empking as the hammer with Hiraki off.

Either way, it suggests Sapo is fond of bussing. And either way, I'm pretty positive that all the scum intended to be on the wagon--regardless of whether Empking's vote was a hammer vote or whether he was hammered by LLD, he posted a hammer vote on himself, meaning he INTENDED to be hammered by himself. In other words, the results don't change--either way, there's three scum on the wagon and one unknown--Oversoul. Again, it comes down to whether I believe Yosarian2 or Empking had all the scum on them.

And, quite frankly, Empking's the one which looks slightly more likely. But I do need to investigate the circumstances of both incidents.

kanyeknowsbest (3): mastin2, Chair, Lady Lambdadelta

And here, Sapo does NOT bus.

kanyeknowsbest (2): Chair, Lady Lambdadelta
MrZepher (2): Yosarian2, Magister Ludi

Sapo passes on the chance to go after Zepher and make it a larger wagon, despite Kayne being smaller. It kinda makes me wonder why.

kanyeknowsbest (1): LLD
Lady Lambdadelta (4): kunkstar7, Îdher, MrZepher, Chair

Not voting: Oversoul

And this is the first place were LLD is playing. Keeps the stale Kayne vote.

Chair (6): SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest, mastin2, Yosarian2, kunkstar7, LLD

LLD hammers Chair. She knew SpyreX was scum, and that Chair wasn't. But I'm not sure I can make anything else about it. It's difficult to tell what her stance in the game is.

kanyeknowsbest (1): Oversoul
Oversoul (1): LLD

This is why it's important to know whether LLD herself would bus. Because this Oversoul vote is vital.

It is possible she knew she was going down, and was going to try and make Oversoul look better. I'll need to look into this further.

Oversoul (1): LLD
Magister Ludi (3): Îdher, Oversoul, mastin2

Oversoul joins the Ludi wagon. I'll need to look into the circumstances of this and see if Oversoul's switch was justified.

mastin2 (1): MrZepher

mastin2 (1): Magister Ludi
Not voting: kanyeknowsbest, MrZepher

I'll have to see why Zepher voted/unvoted me.

Magister Ludi (3): Îdher, mastin2, LLD
LLD (1): kunkstar7
MrZepher (2): Magister Ludi, SpyreX

LLD finally switches from her (stale) Oversoul vote to an active bandwagon on Ludi (now-confirmed-town). SpyreX switches from LLD (someone he had no idea was scum, presumably) to Zepher, despite their wagons being of equal size. This seems like it warrants further investigation--why the switch?

Magister Ludi (3): mastin2, LLD
LLD (5): kunkstar7, Îdher, kanyeknowsbest, SpyreX, Magister Ludi

And SpyreX switches back. It makes you wonder why he ever got off in the first place. I mean, he didn't KNOW that LLD was a Traitor. Also, LLD keeps her vote on Ludi. This is beginning to look more like LLD was against bussing... :/

...I'm beginning to get a feeling. That early-game has a lot of evidence against Oversoul, and later-game has reversed the trend to be lots of evidence against Zepher. >_<

Traditionally, earlier evidence is more reliable, since the scum haven't truly gotten a feel for the game, yet. But I'm not sure.

Magister Ludi (3): mastin2, MrZepher, Oversoul
MrZepher (1) Magister Ludi

Not voting: Kanyeknowsbest

If memory serves, the original wagon was me, Zepher, and Kayne. But this is the official wagon. I didn't realize it at the time I created the theory, but this might've been what made me think that "Kayne/Oversoul is going to die, and the other is scum"--because they were the ones off of the official Ludi wagon and the First Ludi Wagon (respectively).

Since official tends to trump unofficial, this might explain why Kayne died--because he officially wasn't part of the Ludi mislynch. But I find that--while this does seem plausible--it can't be the ONLY reason Kayne was killed. I need to look into him further. If he was killed for fear of being obv-town, if he was killed for thinking I was town, if he was killed for being analytical, or if he was killed because of his suspect(s).


Yeah. Definitely need more than VCA this game. I need to read the circumstances of this VCA. Out-of-context just isn't working, right now. (Speaking of which:

Yosarian2 (8): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher
Untrod Tripod (9): mastin2, MrZepher,
Empking (8): SpyreX, Oversoul, Lady Lambdadelta, Empking

Once again, I have to point out how either Empking had all-scum and UT had no scum, or Yosarian2 had all scum and UT had one scum.

This goes into a little bit of a farfetched outlandish view [Mastin Logic], but because both myself and Zepher are on the Yosarian2 and UT wagons, whereas Oversoul isn't, it makes Oversoul stand out in the crowd and kinda more likely to be scum.

Think about it:

Yosarian2 (7): Lady Lambdadelta, mastin2, SpyreX, Empking, MrZepher
Îdher (1): Oversoul

Oversoul is just hanging there, out of place...)

So, yeah. I'd say my percentage remains about the same. 53-47, Oversoul-Zepher.

[mastin2]

So, I have two days to re-read the thread and see how much I can get from it, since deadline is in a little over four days.

Easy enough.

Time consuming (people in my other games are gonna hate me for this ), but quite possible. *cracks wrists*

[mastin2]

/confirm!

It was swag's enthusiasm when confirming which made me think he was town. Everyone previously before him did boring "/confirm"; he added an exclamation mark.

This is re-inforced by SpyreX also doing a boring /confirm. Mask slightly dilutes this theory by having flipped scum.

Hey, Swag.

You've been browsing this forum for a while now. How's it going?

-Ether

This is a point against Swag, though.

/confirm

Sorry for the late reply, guys.

Also a safe confirm, with an (unnecessary?) apology for coming in late. This is actually quite a strong point against Oversoul, when you think about it--need to justify being late.

/confirm

Late to the party as usual.

However Quill doing the exact same thing suggests the opposite, that Quillford and Oversoul are not scum, because why would he move an identical move to his scumbuddy, the post below his scumbuddy?

:C Don't make fun.

Kinda gives me a scum tone, though I don't know why.

w00t! I started that Idher wagon.

One of Oversoul's main town-tells; why take credit for a wagon he'd inevitably get flak for if it went through?

Must get rid of all the hydras.

This, however, lessens that, in that it seems like an excuse more than anything else.

I think Oversoul is town too but how do you discern Swag is town?

This.

This has to be one of the most important posts in the entire game. But I'm too tired to tell whether it's Quillford confirming Oversoul as town and weakly bussing Swag/Zepher, or whether it's Quillford trying to make Oversoul look town while casting suspicion on Swag/Zepher.

[mastin2]

/nothammering.

[mastin2]

Crud.

Mod: You'll need to force-replace me

.

I think I just learned who the remaining scum is, in a way I'm not supposed to.

[mastin2]

*sigh*

One and a half days left, I've gone from being the scummiest player alive to confirmed town, if I hammer wrong then my reputation's ruined forever, I'm more unsure of myself than I've ever been before, Kunk is not being nearly as helpful as I was hoping he'd be, I'm essentially on my own, with no way out of this situation, I'm being distracted constantly...

...What could

possibly

go wrong?

[mastin2]

1 day, three hours.

Since it's 4:45 AM, add three hours = 7 AM tomorrow deadline.

I'm going to cut it as close as I can, because I need to make things as best of a call as possible.

Since Kunk...well, your last post looked like you were saying that you couldn't decide, either. (But it looks like you're slightly leaning towards Oversoul, correct?)

(It might just be easier to determine the game by a coin flip. >_<)

[mastin2]

Exactly 7 hours, 30 minutes 'til deadline.

Since it's 1 AM now, by my math, that's an eight thirty deadline.

I'm gonna have to pull an all-nighter to get as many angles covered as I possibly can. I want to make this as objective as a decision as I can. I'm trying everything. VCA, dead-people's-opinions, consulting the coin, random.org, gut, instinct, past experience, magic eight ball, looking at Kunk's opinion, looking at the thread as much as I can, consulting a crystal ball...

...But yeah, none of it looks like it'd leave people with as much satisfaction as me simply trying to work objectively. (But. I'm. So. Bad. At. It! I'm an impulsive, instinctive guy! Extremely right-brained, a writer and a Poet, not a Warrior! Not logical, not left-brained. Not a guy who thinks things through. I'm in my weakest zone! >_<) Form my own conclusions with as much wit as I can gather.



...I have a really bad feeling that I'm going to make a wrong call, here.

But, hey. Think positively. Regardless of whether I get it right or wrong, I have ~6.5 hours (to be safe) to make a decision. And then, it'll be over, regardless of a result.

What's the expression? "You might not win even if you try. But you definitely won't win if you quit." Something like that. (In other words, I might screw up by hammering wrong, but it'd be far worse if I didn't finish within the time allotted.)

...You know, that's not quite as encouraging as I'd hope it'd be.

[mastin2]

Let's start this over, shall we?

/confirm

One standard confirm. It's town.

/confirm

Also hi to all the people I have played with before (Dramonic, Ythan, Hiraki, Spyrex, Quilford, Kunkstar7, Parabollocks)
And hi to all my new freinds.

-Slaxx

Not a standard confirm, in that he greets the players he knows. Two town.

I'm bringing sexy back.

Two non-standard confirms, both town, and one standard confirm, town.

They see me confirming
They hating

Three non-standard confirms, all town, and one standard confirm, also town.

Amrun/Ethos double-confirm, so technically four non-standard confirms. Still all town. One standard confirm, still town.

Two standard confirms, both town. Now three, still all town.

/confirmado.

Five non-standard, to three standard. All town. Four standard.

/confirm

I know you, Slaxx. Sort of.

Kinda in the middle, but definitely leaning towards non-standard (six).

Five standard. Note that all eleven confirmations by this point are town.

/confirm!

Shows enthusiasm, so not standard. That'd be the seventh non-standard confirm; is it really the seventh town one? Additionally, did twelve town players really confirm without a single scum player coming in?


...I know. I know.

This is horribad logic.

I wouldn't be using it if I wasn't desperate to figure things out.

SpyreX brings one scum to standard. He's thirteenth, and also the sixth standard confirmer to come in.

Waddup 'ye? /confirm

Non-standard confirm. the eighth, and also the fourteenth confirmer. Did seven people do a non-standard confirm first? Were they all town?


You can tell that scum were coming in pretty late to the confirmation stage, regardless of whether Swag's scum or not.

I think it's been an hour...

Shows impatience. This balances out--heck, is a little bit stronger--than the above; why would scum want to cut their pre-game discussion off?

On the other hand, it could be that he's trying to look pro-town early-on while...well, not succeeding.



One page down. Seventy-two to go, with five hours and fifteen minutes remaining. Easy, right? >_<

[mastin2]

Hey, Swag.

You've been browsing this forum for a while now. How's it going?

-Ether

This is a huge black mark against Swag...especially...

...Well, ESPECIALLY coupled with how Swag was pointing out how it had been one hour already. Let's check the timestamps.

Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:31 pm
^Reck, "one hour".
Mon Jun 13, 2011 5:52 pm
^Swag, "I think it's been an hour". (Also, note how he says "think", unsure of himself...)
Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:04 pm
^Bump.
Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:04 pm
^Day One.

It'd been twelve minutes--was Swag really gone after that?

Since we're voting in circles, vote: Parabollocks....... uh oes.

This...well, it's complex. Tracing it back, Parabollocks votes for Kayne...who is suspicious of Swag.

It's like a reverse-chainsaw-defense. Like an indirect chainsaw attack against Swag. I'm not sure whether this is a point in favor or agaisnt Swag/Zepher, since it's an incredible stretch. (Never have I felt this desperate before. Ever. Not once in my life, have I felt so helpless, so powerless.)

/confirm

Sorry for the late reply, guys.

Apologizes for being late. Otherwise, a standard confirm. Additionally, doesn't participate in the RVS at all. Gives nothing. Looks bad...

/confirm

Late to the party as usual.

VOTE: Ethos

...But would his scumbuddy

really

do a move so similar it looks like parroting, immediately below him? When the connection would be most obvious? The only thing Quill gives that Oversoul doesn't is a vote.

Vote Idher

Starts the Idher wagon, though reasoning had been used previously. ("That seems like a legitimate concern; why no vote?" And the answer.) It's actually looking town. :/

[mastin2]

*sigh* I'm sure the Dead QT is raging at me constantly at what I've been doing. Many curse words, many caps locks, all directed at me in pure simple rage. "GET IT OVER WITH!" "YOU HAD IT, MASTIN! WHY THE EFF DID YOU BACK OUT OF IT?!?" "YOU. HAVE. WHAT. YOU. NEED. RIGHT. IN. FRONT. OF. YOU! WHY CAN'T YOU FIGURE IT OUT?!?" "THE ANSWER WAS RIGHT THERE; WHY THE EFF COULDN'T YOU SEE IT?!?" You get the idea. People cursing at me with the strongest language they can think of, of how I suck, I'm horrible, how I'm so bad. How I'm missing the obvious truth. How I'm missing the facts, how I'm getting things wrong, how I've basically done everything wrong.

But I AM trying. I'm. Trying. As hard as possible, to get it right. To not eff up. To not screw the town any further. To not cost the town the victory they've fought so hard for. If I didn't do an equal amount of work...what kind of player would I be? If I didn't give every single avenue of discussion a lookthrough, if I didn't try as hard as I possibly could...I'd never forgive myself.

:C Don't make fun.

The semi-joking interactions with others, not sure. It seems like something which SHOULD be a town-tell, yet scum do it all the time... :/

Vote: Swag. Scum is there.

Interesting. Will need looking in to.

Sup game I hate not hitting the bookmark button.

Vote: Idher.

For your ^'erry.

Would Spy really jump onto the wagon his buddy had formed, for an entirely different reason as the suspicion previously?

w00t! I started that Idher wagon.

Must get rid of all the hydras.

Again. Would Oversoul really claim credit for the Idher wagon?

Yet why justify it?

It leans town, but not as much as I'd be hoping. :/

Swag is town.
Idher is town.

Discuss.

This'd be of note, if it weren't for...

Correction:

Oversoul is town.
Swag is town.

Vote Ythan

This nullifying it. (Ironically, Ethos predicted what I predicted lylo would be like, five days before I did. )

I think Oversoul is town too but how do you discern Swag is town?

Again. This has to be one of the most important posts in the game. It's at least equal to the "which bandwagon had all the scum?" question. "Which name here is scum?"

It comes down to what we think of Quillford. Would he call his buddy (semi-weakly) town while weakly attacking town, or would he call someone (semi-weakly) town while weakly bussing?

My initial read was of Oversoul scum, Swag/Zepher town. The problem here, is that while it makes sense to strongly call town, well, town, it makes less sense to weakly call town, town. It makes sense to weakly bus as well.

It's like I have two or three points in favor of Oversoul-town, with one or two against him. I can't tell for sure. It's very hard, but very vital for me to figure this out.

Îdher (3): Oversoul, SpyreX, Untrod Tripod

We know scum had no problem blatantly wagoning with their buddy, but would they do it like this?


It seems Kunkstar's Swag vote was almost entirely ignored. I'm not sure whether that indicates Swag/Zepher as town (scum don't want to interfere) or as scum (scum don't want to draw attention to their buddy by trying to get it off).

Three down, seventy left to go.

[mastin2]

If I had to give a division?

...It'd actually be something like 51.5/48.5 Zepher-Oversoul.

This is made out because of a thought I had in my QT. It's essentially related to Guilt, but I need to check it out. (Short version: more people thought Zepher was scum; losing to Zepherscum is more shameful than losing to Overscum.)

[mastin2]

UNVOTE:

my real is most likely oversoul, but he's noob so there's the hard line between noobscum and noobtown, but it's a good vote nonetheless.

VOTE: Oversoul

This is very interesting.

Have we started yet?

This was page five. The RVS was even mentioned on the page, with multiple hints.

Looks like your nefarious ^ survives since we got us a live one.

Unvote, Vote: Para

lol, reactions sliding into excusing yourself from the vote as you make it? AWESOME

This is a bit of a Chainsaw Defense of Oversoul. :/

Sorry for double post, didn't notice it was already five pages xD

Adds nothing. >_<

I know you're gonna take this the wrong way but, I had bookmarked this page on a post on the first page, and never bothered to look and see that we were already a few pages in, so I didn't even know we started. That's why I've been lurking and F5ing hoping it would start and never even noticing. Sorry for being a newb.

Newb-defense, along with being overapologetic and paranoid. Apparently is aware of the situation on the current page (fears he'll take flak), but doesn't give any commentary about other things.

It looks worse than I want it to. :/

SpyreX attacked Parabollocks for attacking a newb...while attacking a newb. It looks better for Swag, worse for Oversoul, since they're the attacked/defended, respectively. (GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!)

I believe Swag. So he should be following up now on that stuff he's just read for the first time.

This, however, is a strong case against him. He's concerned with himself, addressing what SpyreX (who we know is scum) says on him, while not addressing Idher or any of the previous pages. It looks...well, really bad. :/


Five down.

[mastin2]

NOTE TO SELF:
Never, ever, EVER let myself live to a 3P lylo again.

EVER.

I'd rather be lynched Day One than face the pressure of this again.

[mastin2]

I'm leaning away from Hiraki and more towards Para...

So, leans away from one of his defenders (while ignoring the other defenders), while OMGUS'ing his attacker (while ignoring another attacker), with no vote.


...Yeah, doesn't look so good. :/

Well Hiraki I was kind of following Idher, but I realize he isn't scum, and do you really need an explanation?

Admits to sheeping, while also deflecting from answering.

More scum chainsaw defending Oversoul, via attacking Parabollocks.

...Though given Parabollocks was starting to pressure Swag, this is not as much of a tell. In fact, might suggest the opposite, chainsaw defending Swag......

(8888gjuiorkwgt5upgijiroghju9jgw9ugjuiu5j5guj5wgjwgp5jg!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

It's one to thing to say "so and so" is scummy, it's another to back up those claims. It's easy for scum to fluff and just pick a name and say they are scummy, because here's a news flash, we're all acting "scummy", so to call someone scummy and not explain why is the equivalent to a fluff post.

So Swag, I need an explanation.

Add T-Bone to the list of Swag attackers. (Note--Oversoul has basically disappeared from public eye. By memory, this seems to have happened for the entire game. Oversoul was out of sight, Swag/Zepher was in-sight.)

Parabollocks (6): The Mask, Ythan, Untrod Tripod, Chair, SpyreX, Quilford

Mask, scum. Spy, scum. Quill, scum. Quill votes immediately after SpyreX does. By this point, they obviously don't mind voting next to each other. Question is whether they did earlier. :/


Six down.

[mastin2]

Para, you've made a lot of unbiased posts, and not very smart moves. You're trying to cover yourself up too hard. Obvious scum is obvious. VOTE: Parabollocks

And if you look at context, you realize Hiraki voted after Quillford, but before Swag/Zepher did, creating distance. Swag follows through, but also wagons Parabollocks to L-1, if only briefly.

This is once more one of the important questions. Were all the scum on the Parabollocks Wagon, or on the Empking Wagon? The answer here is vital, since it determines the difference in who I'll hammer. Yet it's so hard for me to decipher. (Simply put, I'm out of my element.)

swag is possible scum, i believe the bookmarking bit, but refusing to give any explanation for scum sentiments followed by an L-1 vote with very fluff reasoning does not make town. claims that the L-1 vote can be written off as null for being a newb should also make the eagerness to start the game null as well.

This is definitely something to look into.

also I really want to lynch swag simply so I can refer to it as a swagon or a swag-wagon. Oh please oh please oh please let him be scum.

And UT got lynched. Which IS important.

Reads as weak Swag bussing. :/

Seven down.

[mastin2]

1) Do you believe Oversoul would come in, vote Idher and instantly attempt to claim credit for the wagon start if they were partners together?
2) Do you believe Oversoul would come in, vote Idher and instantly attempt to claim credit for the wagon start if it were to result in a town-flip?

Definitely of note.

Parabollocks (7): The Mask, Ythan, Untrod Tripod, Chair, SpyreX, Quilford, Swag136

SpyreX was very active at the time and could've gotten off at any time. Was he really not afraid of this connection being drawn? (BLARGFGFGHGFJ!!!)

Ythan, you're wrong.

Moving on.

Implying Ythan is town, while also defending Ethos. And giving no additional commentary on the game.


(AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!)


Kinda curious why there's no Oversoul here... >_<

kunkstar: what's your updated read on Swag?

This looks like...well, just about as blatant as asking about your scumbuddies can get. It seems EXTREMELY out of place. Contrast with this:

T-Bone: why is your vote still on Chair?

Same post, but an EXTREMELY different way of asking.

Oversoul: quick summary of your reads on Hiraki, Ythan and Para please

THIS looks like addressing town, though.

Swag: how is Parabollocks trying to "cover himself up"? Update your reads with explanations.

I can see nothing good in here. Maybe if I wasted half an hour, I could find something bad, but I don't think I can spare the time. (I need to pick up my pace.)

Ten down.

[mastin2]

Quil, Idher, go back and read our tells and tell us what you think of them. I'm specifically interested in the Oversoul tell which is a tell I think Quilford agreed with.

This draws my attention. I didn't really notice any tells from Ethos. :/

So I really don't think Oversoul 'claimed' anything. With the 'w00t!' in front of the 'claim' it reads less like "oh I started that wagon I want due credit" and more like "hey I'm a noob and I did something right for once".

So, he wants to make sure Oversoul doesn't get to be too town, despite this being one of the main things he was likely to agree with.

In other words. He didn't want Oversoul looking to be pro-town.


Serious, SERIOUS town-points to Oversoul for that. It's NOT constructed as a bus; it's constructed as a "not-town".

Hiraki I see as slightly scummy just for his general attitude towards the game . I have Hikari and Spyrex as possible scum buddies because of their relative lack of communication yet continual support from Spyrex. Also, Hikari seems to be pretty much following along what other people say. He unvoted me after Ythan proposed a plausible statement of "implausible" as well as changed his mind when Idher said he believed Swag. He seems to act too flippy floppy and I would not mind a lynch on either him or Spyrex.

This looks town; creating a scumteam, and it has SpyreX in it.

Ythan... I don't even know how to read. I am completely stumped. He seems mainly interested in arguing rather than the reason for arguing. I'll put him as town, but his dumb mason test makes it sound really scummy. Why would another town want masons to softclaim?

This...less so. Fence-sitting.

Parablocks I have as a town. 126 indicates that he cares about not being mislynched. At the early in the game, I don't think a scum would really care that someone started to /lean/ towards them. He shrugged when the pressure was put onto him and didn't really give adequate reasons for voting me other than saying my actions were unnecessary.

This ALSO looks majorly town.

Sorry this took so long write up. I'm new at this and I hadn't really been paying attention to the thread.

Yet this doesn't.

(Seeing the pattern? )

I think you may have gotten some players' names mixed up here. Correct please?

Reading the rest of your post now.

Yet this looks a little like scum talking to scumbuddy. :/

WHY OH WHY DOES THIS HAVE TO BE MADE JUST. SO. EFFING. DIFFICULT FOR ME?!?

Also SpyreX thoughts on Hiraki please

This actually furthers that, since he asks his scumbuddy. (Or does it? Would he really address two scumbuddies in a row?
AAAAAAAAARGJFJGNJIORGJIRGG!!!!!!!)

No I see what he's saying (and in the grandiose scheme of things it makes me laaaaugh):

This is in the context of Quillford asking about Oversoul's post. And it looks incredibly good for Oversoul, since scum tend not to laugh at their scumbuddies in-thread. Not in this way, at least.

Through eleven.


For the record. It's looking like I'll be hammering Zepher. We'll see what I find when I keep on reading. I need to be more sure than I am. It's, like, 53-47 AT MOST, Zepher-Oversoul.

[mastin2]

*sigh* I really deserve to have my eyes gouged out. I was so blind that I couldn't see, I physically couldn't see, Ludi flipping town. Yet he did. And now, I'm having extreme trouble seeing the last scum. One moment, I catch onto something which makes me instantly think I have it, then I lose it in a fog. :/ "I once was blind, but now I

see

am worse."

2. That you believe we're making incorrect assumptions in regards to our Oversoul town-read.
This issue has been beaten to death, Overs play reads as town through and through and this is a read that's not weakening at all, I still fail to see him acting in the way he did as scum.

More evidence Oversoul is town.

Parabollocks (6): The Mask, Ythan, Untrod Tripod, Chair, Quilford, Swag136

Perfect instance of me doubting my read. SpyreX was calm on getting off--like he wasn't worried. Quillford wasn't concerned, either. Implying a lack of concern on Swag's vote.

Valid.

unvote; vote: swag... I dunno, I still think there's something behind him lurking when the game started. Haven't read the 11 pages I missed but I see 6 votes on Para so lol, no.

This REEKS of bussing.

Absolutely.

Horrendously.

Reeks of bussing.

Fourteen down. (I'm not gonna finish in time, am I? :/) Though I think you can all see where this is leading me.

[mastin2]

Swag, come to the Headmaster's office for 6 of the best. Very, very bad. Following an unconfirmed-alignment player for no reason? Check. Jumping off that onto another major wagon and not giving a reason? Check.

I feel awful for KoC/Ludi now that I read this. There's just...no words. Feeling of heart-sinking for having been such a strong crusader against them, when they posted something like this which very well might sway me once and for all to Swag/Zepher.

Unvote, Vote: Para

Seriously dont know or care if thats a hammer peace

He doesn't care about his place on the wagon.

This is evidence against Swag/Zepher. Since if he didn't care at all, he wouldn't panic about being on the wagon with all his scumbuddies.

Oversoul thing was tone?

This seems important.
But I'm beginning to lose my coherence. (*Insert F-Bomb here* ) I can't tell how.

Quilford, I can understand the town-read on Over via the tone of his early posts to a degree however I'm finding it difficult understanding your refrainment from stating that reasoning when the argument about Over came to light. I'll await your reads-list before I respond in regards to the Ythan vs Ethos debate.

This makes me think Quillford's town-read on Oversoul was a bit of a, well, scum-slip, in that he knew Oversoul was town.

Ya, Idher. Most of your posts aren't really contributing to anything, especially your random vote on Quilford which I assume is from Ethos's list.

The only reason I can come up with for your lack of substance is that you have a QT with someone else (other than your hydra partner).

Stuff like this makes me second-guess that growing Oversoul town-read, though.

(WHY THE HECK DID NOBODY EVER TELL ME HAMMERING 3P LYLO WOULD BE THIS HARD?!?
...Oh. Right. 'Cause they didn't expect me to ever need to. )

I still can't believe how many problems came as a result of one of my posts.

This...on the other hand, this...actually strengthens the town-read.

Through sixteen.

[mastin2]

Nice to know my swag vote is shitposting... oh but it's SpyreX saying that so yeah, of course he's chainsawwing.

This looks like one of the most condemning things possible for Swag.

Mask was the traitor. he knew Spy was scum. He knew the scum. It really looks like a double-bus. And Spy calling Mask out for Swag is also more against Swag/Zepher. I'm sorry, but I'm not seeing any way this day can go down other than me hammering Zepher. :/

I should read Oversoul's Zepher case, but I don't want to, yet--it'd bias my own reads and I want to compare my version to what he presents.
In roughly an hour, I will. (Dang. It's late. :/)

Swag: Has done noting all game except this vote for Para:

Para, you've made a lot of unbiased posts, and not very smart moves. You're trying to cover yourself up too hard. Obvious scum is obvious. VOTE: Parabollocks


Para did have a lot of “not very smart moves”, but what, exactally, makes you think that he’s scum rather then just an idiot? What does “a lot of unbiased posts” even mean? What makes his play “obvscum”?

I dislike that Swag has done no scumhunting all game, and then jumps on a bad lynchbait wagon while giving really bad reasons.

Respect your elders.

(His reads were awesome there. None of his town-reads were scum. He had one correct scumread for sure, looking like two.)

This post is mostly gut-town, until...

Or that maybe could be just his reads on them. I think you're reading into his post too much.

This. It's either null or super-town, rather than gut-town.

This is through 18.

4:30. That's an hour and a half from my self-imposed deadline, which is itself an hour and a half or so from actual deadline. I think, anyway. My sense of time is extremely skewed right now.

[mastin2]

I'm going to install a one-week deadline to make sure this doesn't drag on for too long.

Deadline is in (expired on 2011-08-19 11:30:00).

3 hours, 58 minutes. 4 hours, 8:30 AM my time. So, I've really got three hours to be safe.

[mastin2]

Seems to continue weak bussing from the slot.

Gut town here. Nothing stands out which makes it seem town other than gut. Maybe the bit about SpyreX, but otherwise, nothing spectacular.

Ethos/Yos are more than likely going to be lynched (unfortunately )?

That just sounds a little fishy, Emp.

Something in here, looks town. I can't pin it down; it's morre than just gut. But it does look town.

This does NOT look like scum interactions. At all.

Especially not with this, nor with this.

This post COULD be bussing, but doesn't look like it. Call it gut, call it confirmation bias against Oversoul; it just doesn't look like Empking'd bus in this manner.

Oversoul is newbie town sooo through and through now my goodness.

Seriously losing my coherence; can't tell if this makes Oversoul more or less likely to be scum, though my first call was less.

Through 22. And honestly, I'm not sure what reading further will get me. It's looking more and more clear. :/

[mastin2]

Page 23 has a lot of Oversoul. But it doesn't look really scummy.
Potential points against him are him apparently knowing Bookie/Traitor are in the setup, but the way he doesn't know how they work looks better for him, since, well, the scum bookie's the last scum role alive.

I should look into my predecessor's reads here more, but given how short on time I am, I more like than not, will not.

Locks in VT claim as a newb, and admits to asking about scum traitor. Both points in Oversoul's favor. Something here rings the town bell as well. Dunno what.

Through 24. I'm about ready to stop reading, since...well, I'm not getting anything new from this all. :/

[mastin2]

Took a small break to refresh myself. I'll read Oversoul's case when I've done a solid page of posts.

I felt if I gave him my role pm it would prove to him that I am town. I still don't think he believes me, though.

Looks town, and pretty hard to fake.

Just wondering, Yos, but why is claiming VT generally anti-town? I believe it to be anti-town because it is the most common role that scum fakeclaims. However, I am interested in your opinion.

Question, scummy. Phrasing of said question, town. "it is the most common role that scum fakeclaims" in particular.

vote: Empking

Continues the weak bussing.

I really have no reluctance voting for Empking and once Idher started to single out Quilford and his behavior I started to feel that he was scummy, but I was more obsessed with Ythan being scum to really care.

A bit worrying, that he doesn't follow through. :/

This is through 26.

[mastin2]

And fair warning, I am becoming more tired. The more I read, the less effort I'm putting in. I feel it. It's draining me. I won't be able to go on for much longer, before I lose my ability to keep on going. :/

[mastin2]

I'll try to get first two days, though. Wherever those end.

[mastin2]

Through 30. And unfortunately have nothing more to add. :/

[mastin2]

Ah, screw waiting. Close enough.

[mastin2]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHG!!!!!!!

[mastin2]

I'm literally falling asleep, here.

I had to stay up all night for this game, because I'd miss the deadline if I slept and because I needed to put the work in.

But I've got less than two hours 'til deadline, and I could barely skim Oversoul's wall.

Put bluntly.

My brain's shut down.

[mastin2]

I can't continue this.

I just effing can't.

I won't gain anything.

I've gotten everything I can.

[mastin2]

*cries*

Why me...

(Oh. Right. Because I suck and basically have given the scum a free victory. )


*sigh*


I'm going to get flak for this.

I suppose I could try to say my vote is a win-win. If I'm wrong, it tells me not to second-guess myself and follow through with my reads. If I'm right, I pulled through in the end.


...But in truth, it's almost certainly a lose-lose.

I won't feel good regardless of whether I win or lose. I stopped having fun when Ludi was lynched. :/


It's purely a choice between feeling bad, and feeling worse.

I figure that this is inevitable. I'm not going to say this is the only way things could've gone down. But I will say that it's the best I've got. I'm hoping. Praying. That it's good enough. That I'm not going to see "SCUM WIN" in the title of another New York Game.

I'm sorry, town.

I really am.

That I couldn't be better than I am.
That I suck, that I'm Mastin. That I am not a good scumhunter. That I am who I am.
I'm sorry. I truly am sorry.

*breathes in*

Leap of faith. It'd be far more than I deserve, but I hope that eventually--even if I'm wrong--town can find it within themselves to forgive me. Since I know I never will.

Sorry.

Vote: MrZepher

.

It's done. Over.

Forgive me.

*insert the obligatory trolling of Mastin here for all his various mistakes*

[mastin2]

I feel as if a great burden has been lifted from my chest. (Only question is whether that's because I can finally breathe or have ceased to breathe for eternity. ) I dunno why. But suddenly, I feel better. Like I'm glad it's over, even though I don't know the results.

Is that the feeling people always get when in 3P lylo?

[mastin2]

I mentioned the times I've had. So, I can say it's the first time I've been in 3P lylo outside of a marathon on my main.

I'm really hoping that you're being legit, and aren't scum pulling my heartstrings. (You know, an ultimate high before the absolute bottom low. )

I will indeed go to sleep, now. I won't exactly sleep WELL, mind you (not knowing for sure Though for the record, if Oversoul's faking, he's doing a dang-good job), but I can at least sleep knowing it's over and even if I'm wrong and just lost, that by the time I wake up, most people will have already vented their rage.