Tierce's play has been weird and obnoxious, but it's pretty clear it's coming from a town mindset trying to portray a certain image of herself, rather than it being an elaborate act as scum. She's a capable scum player, but I think her taking this approach as scum would be unusual, given she alludes to blatantly questionable tactics such as channeling scum meta and overaggressive wagoning - exactly the sort of recklessness that townies produce in the name of "generating information". I think JDodge's posts addressing her have been accurate and fair (although blunt), when he could have easily taken advantage of her position without much blame. There are a handful of other points he's made that have been insightful and constructive in ways that show he's clearly thinking about the game/people's alignments, for example, him calling out Rhinox on my predecessors early wagon. He's also one of the few keeping this game alive in a period of serious quiet.
In a game like this where many people know each other and have a penchant for wagoning, the early wagon on my predecessor was probably not as informative as people like Tierce want to believe. Herd mentality kicks in far swifter when there is familiarity in a group. There are enough people in this game ballsy enough to place L-1 and hammer votes as town and plenty that are savvy enough as scum to understand the wagon for what it is - it wasn't really going to catch anyone out. If anything, the chance of false-positives (whatever they are) seem just as likely - it would have been akin to ending the day with little to no information.
I have a gut town read on redFF. His posts lack caution and seem simple in a way that looks like he isn't trying to fabricate. As town, I think he is very likely to bandwagon umoms even if for no other reason than a laugh - as scum, I think he could do the same, but there are many more scenarios where I don't think he would. Like if he had zero reason or idea of what to claim as a reason, if he already had buddies on the quicklynch, or he may have even just decided to have avoided it in general. There are simply more possibilities of him doing this as town than scum. I think newish, minimal players like redFF tend to comply with this blueprint. Absolutely reckless as town, slightly more sensible as scum.
There is no way iamausername fakeclaims Cop as scum in this game. He essentially is forced to play the "I've been roleblocked every night" game, and even then, I doubt it would work. Slight meta tell, but I don't think he'd flake after committing to a gambit so monumental. It's also obvious he's town by the way he's scumhunted this game too. Bodyguard and 1-shot Vig are probably confirmed town and
maybe
the Gunsmith, although I wouldn't rule out OGML giving scum a 1-shot Gunsmith to effectively act as a weak role-cop. The fact that a Gunsmith almost certainly exists (regardless of its alignment) ought to confirm the likelihood of roles with a gun being true (Vig, Cop, Bodyguard?) and given these are all (typically) protown roles, those three ought to be confirmed. I wouldn't rule out some setup weirdness/trickery, but those three are probably reliable.
This paints the Roleblocker as slightly suspicious, but it would also be weird to claim it outright as scum, given a much more valuable use stems from keeping it hidden and being able to use it on town roles safely. Regardless, this ought to be one of the roles the SK should be targeting if he's to target our pool of PR's (it depends on the SK's immunities to the investigation roles), so this might be a problem that solves itself regardless of Staeg's alignment. Again, really need to see singer's role too.
Quite clearly, we should be lynching from the VT pool today - there ought to be 3-4 scum in there, which is good odds for us to hit and one of the few perks of massclaiming this early. The value of "locking scum into claims" is irrelevant if we can't wipe out the VT pool at a similar rate to scum eliminating the confirmed townies, as an endgame of 2:5 with all claimed VT's and a neighbour isn't particularly valuable. A lot depends on how the SK acts - if the SK feels comfortable in the pool of VT's, he
might
shoot there for us helping us narrow that half of the claims down quicker, but if the SK is not the towniest player in the VT's it will likely shoot our PR's removing chances of crosskills and also whittling down the confirmed/probtown side of the claims quicker.
Of the claimed VT's (me, Quilford, Tierce, nhammen, scooby, redFF, Simenon, Flameaxe, JDodge, Quag?), I'm really only comfortable lynching Quilford, nhammen, scooby, Simenon or Flameaxe.
Quilford and scooby have both bordered on active lurking at times, and both provided weak or reasonless votes and inquiries throughout their play (although I know this is how scooby always is). I'm okay with testing iam's tell on nhammen and Simenon and Flameaxe haven't been noticable enough to think of reasons for them to be town, which isn't really a point against them, but more PoE when I can think of a reason for everyone else to be town. Shameless townhunting in my post, but I've been finding that's a lot easier (especially on D1) these days.
