Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over

[Maenara]

@Mae, I see you dodging my question, please answer it:

Also, NJAC is still totally scum for doing nothing, reappearing at the most convenient of times, and being unwilling to do anything risky at all.

When are those convenient times and why are they exactly convenient for me? Did I mention I had RL stuff to deal with?

Those convenient times are the only times you actually bothered to say more in a post than "I totally iso'd this guy, he's scum", or, in other words, while defending yourself.

And yeah, you mentioned you had real life stuff. So what? Anyone could say that.

The only two realistic wagons you've committed yourself to was the one on the person now shown to be a mason, and me. You've been way too careful not to say anything.

Also, besides me who do you think is scummy right now?

If you read my posts at all, you'd know. I stated as much explicitly a few posts ago.

[Maenara]

Oh, bloody hell, messed up the quote tags. Obviously, there should be another end-quote after your self-quote.

[NJAC]

Yeah I saw 845 but:

1) You don't elaborate on them, and,

2) You said "some of them are very likely to change as you read on", that's way I ask you about your reads

right now

, because I suposse you're updating your reads constantly, aren't you?.

[NJAC]

Oh and do you think that being in two wagons is commiting, or risky or something townies do?

Also replace "careful" with "busy" in that line of: "You've been way too careful not to say anything". Fortunately I'm not that busy now, so if you have some questions or comments I'm here to answer.

[qwints]

Maenara, you need to give us more - make a case or be lynched. Also, let's talk about your scum list from yesterday:

Pirate Mollie
Shinori
Telo

Pirate Mollie flipped town, and Shinori now seems "genuinely seemed town-like" (Post 871). But instead of dealing with Telo

at all

, you moved on to Eleison and NJAC. You had mentioned both day 1, trying to get Eleison lynched for bread-crumbing (scummy) and NJAC lynched for active lurking.

So, I want you to:
1) Make a case against your top suspect
2) List who you think is associated with that suspect
3) Explain why you've dropped Telo as a suspect

Until then, my vote stays.

[Maenara]

I've already explained why I want NJAC pressured. I don't know with whom he'd be associated, except possibly Jun. I don't even recall why I had Telo as a subject; I've read her posts outside this game and have come to expect absolutely zilch from her, so her slot is a complete null-read on my part.

Lynching me because I don't have a particularly good case on anyone at the moment is just ridiculous. Person without case != scum, and if we assume for the sake of argument that I'm the former, how do you expect me to prove this? I've defended myself against whatever things you find wrong with my past behaviour, but you ignore it.

Sweet Cthulhu, stop looking for by-the-book tells for a moment, and try to consider the motivations behind people's behaviour, will you?

[Maenara]

Also, don't you think it's a bit peculiar that seemingly everyone is just fine with this wagon? Wasn't that your main complaint about the other wagons?

[qwints]

stop looking for by-the-book tells for a moment

So you admit you're giving off by-the-book tells?

[theomoaner]

I think Shinori is at least top 3. This in conjunction with him displaying extreme anti-town behavior and a flip providing a decent amount of information (e.g. we can eliminate a decent amount of scum-team permutations) makes him the optimal person to lynch in my opinion.

Which scum-team permutations could we eliminate from a Shinori lynch?

While I do see your argument for a Hiraki-Telo-Jun connection given that Hiraki has 'defended' Telo and Jun by calling them inexperienced, Hiraki has done something similar for (thurhame/(now 10506670)). Hirkai also criticized Jun in 168. So, I think that there is some good evidence about connections between players here, but I'm reluctant to draw conclusions until we flip one of the group. I could certainly be persuaded to switch my vote to 10506670 or Telo since I think both of them have been scummy.

Thanks that saved me a job, I was going to continue with this analysis today, it was too much for last night. It was a tough task with all the one liners and side comments that had to picked through.
I disagree with Shinori not being abused with the "Can you say less than nothing" remark (#213). I suppose it depends what you mean by abuse.

Anyway I thought I would finish what I started and look for reference the other way round as it were.

Jun -> Telo, Apart from the one already mentioned there are two other references
#300. Telo in his unsure pile.
#717. "I think Telo is the most pro town person here, and am disappointed that he is replacing out."

What?!?!?!

Jun -> Hiraki

Just did an ISO of this game. I'll reread it non-iso'ed later. For now this will have to do.

My reads (in no particular order):

Town:

Hiraki

– very aggressive, similar to Majiffy (scum) in my Newbie Game who everyone thought was town. His actions seem pro town for now, so I am fine tentatively putting him as town because I think Majiffy’s play was the exception, not the rule, as players such as Thor665 even thought Majiffy was town.
....

Telo

– Like dividizzle, this fellow posts too infrequently for me to get a proper read. Could be lurking scum, could simply be busy. Let’s not forget that this slot posts that he will be able to post after this weekend.

Hikari is

tentative

town and yet from the next mention no action has been taken to solidify that read?

I don't know why you're analyzing the numbers wagon from Day 1 instead of the pirate mollie wagon, but yes, I would agree with "Buldermar, Hiraki, Enigma, Maenara, Dividizzle and Theomoaner are more than likely scummy in your eyes."

Except for whatever reason Buldermar, Hiraki, and Dividizzle got put in my leaning town pile a while ago and I have yet to see anything from them that jumps out at me to change my leaning town read.

My reads aren't solely based on train analysis but more of a larger picture - I guess I picked out people I thought were scummy and realized oh hey this person is also sheeping onto lynches and this doesn't sit right with me.
....

hiraki and dividizzle I think don't post enough for me to develop a read without going back to do an iso which I'll get around to eventually. The thing about them that sticks out the most to me is that nothing about them sticks out to me besides hiraki's obvious attitude problems.

Telo I believe is town for having similar reads to me and not sheeping onto what i thought to be an ill founded train on Shinori. Theomoaner I would buy as scum.

Now this is interesting. Here he says he has put Hiraki in his town pile but two paragraphs later (I edited one out) he doesn't have enough on Hiraki to get a read.

Telo, perhaps unsurprisingly, never mentioned Hiraki

[Maenara]

stop looking for by-the-book tells for a moment

So you admit you're giving off by-the-book tells?

I admit that I've messed up a few times, like putting Telo as a scum-read rather than a null-read, probably overstating the potential gain from a wagon on Mollie, and so on and so forth. Messing up as town is seen by a lot of people as scum. I cannot objectively judge whether my behaviour seems scummy, only if it is motivated by such or not, but seeing as y'all seem to think I'm behaving like scum, and I sure ain't motivated by any such role, by-the-book tells seems to be the only option left.

[theomoaner]

Which scum-team permutations could we eliminate from a Shinori lynch?

Also what other information would you hope to gain?

[qwints]

Maenara, here are they key points I've made against you:

• Maenara said she, thought Pirate Mollie was newb town but encouraged a lynch while staying off the wagon.
  You've responded by saying you loathed Mollie's play style.
  
  
  
• Maenara said a PM lynch would generate info, but now says she hasn't learned any information.
  You've said the lynch happened differently than you thought it would. You've cleared the only person you seem to think the lynch generated negative information on: Shinori (829 then 871)
  
  
  
• Maenara's weird assumption about the set-up.
  You've said you were making assumptions for the sake of the argument.
  
  
  
• Maenara's inconsistency regarding her scum lists.
  You've said you don't remember why, and that it was a mistake.

I don't find these to be persuasive defenses, and you've responded to pressure by saying things like "Then there is not very much I can do to convince you otherwise." You've also claimed that your wagon is going too easily, but I think it's actually been more difficult to generate pressure on you than at least the Shinori wagon. You're at L-3 with a counter-wagon being pushed fairly hard (though it does have at least a mason I'm treating as confirmed town).

[10506670]

10506670, if you think Jun is the most scummy, why not vote him?

My mistake. I thought I had voted him before I went looking for my gif, but clearly I hadn't and I also messed up the quote tag.

VOTE: JUN

[qwints]

Hiraki, why are you still voting a mason?

[buldermar]

Hiraki, why are you still voting a mason?

Don't you think this is a tad bit too conclusive?

[qwints]

A claimed mason who shoulg not be lynched today?

[Jun]

I think Shinori is at least top 3. This in conjunction with him displaying extreme anti-town behavior and a flip providing a decent amount of information (e.g. we can eliminate a decent amount of scum-team permutations) makes him the optimal person to lynch in my opinion.

Which scum-team permutations could we eliminate from a Shinori lynch?

While I do see your argument for a Hiraki-Telo-Jun connection given that Hiraki has 'defended' Telo and Jun by calling them inexperienced, Hiraki has done something similar for (thurhame/(now 10506670)). Hirkai also criticized Jun in 168. So, I think that there is some good evidence about connections between players here, but I'm reluctant to draw conclusions until we flip one of the group. I could certainly be persuaded to switch my vote to 10506670 or Telo since I think both of them have been scummy.

Thanks that saved me a job, I was going to continue with this analysis today, it was too much for last night. It was a tough task with all the one liners and side comments that had to picked through.
I disagree with Shinori not being abused with the "Can you say less than nothing" remark (#213). I suppose it depends what you mean by abuse.

Anyway I thought I would finish what I started and look for reference the other way round as it were.

Jun -> Telo, Apart from the one already mentioned there are two other references
#300. Telo in his unsure pile.
#717. "I think Telo is the most pro town person here, and am disappointed that he is replacing out."

What?!?!?!

Jun -> Hiraki

Just did an ISO of this game. I'll reread it non-iso'ed later. For now this will have to do.

My reads (in no particular order):

Town:

Hiraki

– very aggressive, similar to Majiffy (scum) in my Newbie Game who everyone thought was town. His actions seem pro town for now, so I am fine tentatively putting him as town because I think Majiffy’s play was the exception, not the rule, as players such as Thor665 even thought Majiffy was town.
....

Telo

– Like dividizzle, this fellow posts too infrequently for me to get a proper read. Could be lurking scum, could simply be busy. Let’s not forget that this slot posts that he will be able to post after this weekend.

Hikari is

tentative

town and yet from the next mention no action has been taken to solidify that read?

I don't know why you're analyzing the numbers wagon from Day 1 instead of the pirate mollie wagon, but yes, I would agree with "Buldermar, Hiraki, Enigma, Maenara, Dividizzle and Theomoaner are more than likely scummy in your eyes."

Except for whatever reason Buldermar, Hiraki, and Dividizzle got put in my leaning town pile a while ago and I have yet to see anything from them that jumps out at me to change my leaning town read.

My reads aren't solely based on train analysis but more of a larger picture - I guess I picked out people I thought were scummy and realized oh hey this person is also sheeping onto lynches and this doesn't sit right with me.
....

hiraki and dividizzle I think don't post enough for me to develop a read without going back to do an iso which I'll get around to eventually. The thing about them that sticks out the most to me is that nothing about them sticks out to me besides hiraki's obvious attitude problems.

Telo I believe is town for having similar reads to me and not sheeping onto what i thought to be an ill founded train on Shinori. Theomoaner I would buy as scum.

Now this is interesting. Here he says he has put Hiraki in his town pile but two paragraphs later (I edited one out) he doesn't have enough on Hiraki to get a read.

Telo, perhaps unsurprisingly, never mentioned Hiraki

I think you're looking for connections that aren't there and you're trying to scrape together weak evidence to get me mislynched. Just my $0.02.

[Smashbard]

re is a scum link between Telo and Maenara. Mostly because well, Telo is replacing out. I don’t believe scum would replace out due to “abusive” posts being slung their way. It is indicative of someone who doesn’t have thick enough skin to get along with aggressive players, but scum KNOWS they are scum. They know that if they slip up, people are going to on them like the police state in a lady gaga music video. I hardly believe scum is going to replace out because curse words are coming their way, as they probably feel dirty enough being scum players to begin with. So Telo’s replacement reads to me like a town slot that couldn’t take the heat, not scum who couldn’t handle the pressure of being suspected of active lurking.

[quote=buldermar] I was looking forward to questions, but none were posed. Some of you seem to suggest that I've been sheeping. Let me clarify something: I was one of two people to explicitly clarify on day 1 that I was going to vote Shino on day 2: [/quote]

Sorry I didn’t pose any questions to you. But that was mostly because I was using you as an analytical point, not really because I thought you were scummy. You are in my town pile, so I didn’t feel the need to pressure you for answers of your votes.

But here’s a couple anyway:
Do you feel that Jun’s responses to me are genuine town logic? He clarified quite a few reads for me, but what are your thoughts?

Do you feel it’s acceptable for town to not have sufficient defenses for what they have said previously, such as Maenara has exhibited? This is huge. Either it’s excusable for town to not know how to defend their own arguments, or it’s a big scumtell proving that we’ve (and by we I mean Qwints) caught scum.

[Smashbard]

EBWOP due to Microsoft Word Fail: I don't believe there is a scum link between Telo & Maenara.

[theomoaner]

I think you're looking for connections that aren't there and you're trying to scrape together weak evidence to get me mislynched. Just my $0.02.

Thank you for your 1.04 rupees. If it's a weak case explain why, don't just say it's a weak case, and stop dodging my question. If you "could buy me as scum", what is your case against me?

[theomoaner]

@Smash, do you really think Telo flaked for being verbally abused?

Do you think that being told to "fucking contribute more than shit" is as abusive as being called a "twat" by Hiraki, which passed by without comment?

Telo's flake looked more like "pressure is starting to build, I'm out of here, what excuse can I use?" to me.
Same as Thurhame.

[theomoaner]

I could maybe accept Maenara as a Vig, SK or other anti-town third party, early game she called on a hypo-vig a couple of times (e.g. #180) and later posited a hypo-SK. Could be breadcrumbing, but it's tenuous at best.
I can't see her as scum at the moment because I can't see her fitting in with the rest of my scum-reads.

[buldermar]

A claimed mason who shoulg not be lynched today?

This is an entirely different statement.

[buldermar]

Sorry I didn’t pose any questions to you. But that was mostly because I was using you as an analytical point, not really because I thought you were scummy. You are in my town pile, so I didn’t feel the need to pressure you for answers of your votes.

But here’s a couple anyway:
Do you feel that Jun’s responses to me are genuine town logic? He clarified quite a few reads for me, but what are your thoughts?

Do you feel it’s acceptable for town to not have sufficient defenses for what they have said previously, such as Maenara has exhibited? This is huge. Either it’s excusable for town to not know how to defend their own arguments, or it’s a big scumtell proving that we’ve (and by we I mean Qwints) caught scum.

No, I don't think Jun's responses to you are genuine town logic, but I also don't perceive him as a particularly skillful player. If I were to estimate his alignment, I'd say it's slightly skewed towards scum. In post 828 I think the "wow good catch" comment is looking a bit scummy. I think someone who doesn't know it for sure to be a correct catch would be more inclined to take a neutral or skeptical stance.

It depends on how you define acceptable. I think it is suboptimal from the town perspective to not have sufficient defenses for what you've previously claimed. By doing this as town, you allow it not to be a scum trait which, in turn, allows scum to just throw around claims relentlessly. On the contrary, if you as town always have sufficient defenses for whatever you're claiming, scum will have to make up plausible defenses, which isn't always as easy as it sounds and much more easily (in my opinion at least) can give away their true alignment. However, this always becomes an issue in games with many bad players (forgive me for being straightforward, but I consider this an example of such), as there is no easy way to decide if the lack of sufficient defenses is merely reflecting absence of skill. Does it make sense?

And thank you for posing these questions.

[theomoaner]

I realise it may not have been clear buldermar, but these questions were directed at you.

Which scum-team permutations could we eliminate from a Shinori lynch?

Also what other information would you hope to gain?