Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over

[NJAC]

I’m going to elaborate a bit more:

I think it was Theomoaner who asked me several pages ago about Jun. I already answered her play is consistent with the play on our mutual newbie game. I’ll just add to it that there’s something I like about her play: she uses to think by herself instead of just shipping. Neither sheeping nor not-sheeping is scummy, but I think that thinking by ourselves is something townies should also do, especially in the decisive phases of the game.

Just to conclude I’m not pretty damn sure as Hiraki about her towniness, so I’m not going to stop her lynch, even more considering the proximity of deadline, but I would really rather prefer a lynch on Maenara or Shinori. I’m also considering Enigma.

Next post: replying buldermar...

[NJAC]

Now to reply (I know it’s a bit outdated but I better answer) to buldermar:

NJAC:

NJAC did not vote Shinori on day 2. Instead, the first vote was on Elei.

And after the claim:

UNVOTE: Eleison
I'm not sure about Shinori, but if he's town then at least one scum being on his wagon makes sense to me. So, one (or even two) of Mae/Hiraki/numbers/buldermar/Rubik would be scum in a Sinori-flipping-town scenario. Of course it needs a flip and that's assuming there's no bussing here.

VOTE: Maenara

Q: Why do you think Mason should lead our actions? Would you be willing to lynch Shinori? What information are you hoping to gain from a Maenara lynch?

Notes: If Shinori flips town, that skews NJAC's alignment towards town (because of the absence of an opportunistic vote).

---

1) Well I see them as confirmed town, if we’re trying an agreement on whom we should lynch, then they must actively participate on that consensus. I also liked some of their reasonings so I think they can be very helpful to town and can lead us to victory. I feel it’s an advantage over scums to have claimed masons-confirmed townies, but as I said before I’m not going to follow ‘em blindly.

2) Yes.

3) As I said before I’m expecting her to flip scum and I’ll care to gain info after the flip. I’m also considering what you said in 1053: “

completely neglecting what can be derived from knowing that persons true alignment, is a fundamental mistake

”. I see what you did in 904 and what you’re trying to highlight, I also appreciate it because it’s a big effort from your part, and it really takes a lot of time to make that kind of posts.

However there’s something that bothers me a bit. You made your whole 904 post in response to theomoaner question: “Which scum-team permutations could we eliminate from a Shinori lynch?” I’m not going to quote the whole interaction but you said we’ll gain a “decent amount of information” lynching Shinori, and when asked you didn’t have the answer, even more you never gave a concise answer IIRC, you just went to look for walls of quotes to try to see the interactions and then threw a lot of questions everywhere, and that way you were somehow highlighting interesting interactions between everyone and Shinori.

Even more: you almost solved the whole game based on one flip. But your “notes” after the questions directed to players are mostly a lot of WIFOM, when you say someone will lean X when Shinori flips Y. I recognize your effort but don’t see it like the greatest post ever and I can imagine the exhausting of doing it. I tried something like that in my other games (time was never enough to make the posts I wanted), but I finally learned it’s better to be concise.

So, to conclude: I’ll take care of analyzing the interactions and wagon of a lynchee after their flip.

On another note: thanks for recalling that I wasn't on Shinori wagon, I saw qwints making an incoherent case against me... I'd also like to hear your "different reasons" for me being "the scummiest if Shino flips scum", as you said in 914.

And finally a couple of questions to you: Why exactly are you sure about Maenara's towniness at the point of calling her lynch "stupidity" from our part? Who can be completely sure about someone's scumminess or towniness?

[NJAC]

Sorry about the multipost, but I think it's better than a huge one. This one to Hiraki:

NJAC will be tomorrow's lynch, qwintz.

In your post before this one you said I was leaning null, I really don’t follow you and you don’t care to elaborate at all, anyway I’ll ask you: Do you still believe this and if so, why am I tomorrow’s lynch?

[Jun]

PMysterious/Combinatorial Enigma's slot is scum.

PMysterious lurked so much, claimed to offer reads by page 6 yet never did. Lurked and replaced out quietly, scum who couldn't take the heat?

There was someone who yelled at me for voting PMysterious for his/her lurking and not posting reads by the time we hit page 6. I quick skimmed the thread and couldn't find that post. Considering my scum read on PMysterious/Combinatorial Enigma's slot, I think the person who scolded me for that is likely to be Combinatorial Enigma's scum partner. <-Found it. It's Post #179 from evilPacMan: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p4328435

I had pretty strong scum reads on them both, qwints the replacement has turned that around a bit, but I would suspect that if one of the two flips scum, then the other will as well.

I still think Maenara has a good shot of being a 3rd party neutral or on a 3 man mafia team due to her comments on the scum distribution of the game. This person keeps attacking me, before she was attacking Shinori, and the day before attacking Pirate Mollie. I think it's scary how this one person keeps jumping on the low hanging fruit trains. Maenara probably has a good chance of being the 3rd party neutral because....

Qwints: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4388637 and http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p4388911
I think Quints mafia was considering his options in the first post, and then by the second post decided that getting rid of the 3rd party neutral is a good move this early in the game and it will give him town points to help make this case against Maenara the 3rd party neutral.

I think Pirate Mollie, Shinori, Hiraki, NJAC, and myself are easy mislynches for the scum to push in this game. That's why I think Maenara is scum for pushing Pirate Mollie, Shinori, and myself.

---
Back to some stuff on combinatorial Enigma:

Agreed. Especially given that he was the one who hammered Pirate.

Vote Shinori.

I don't like how combinatorial Enigma presents no arguments whatsoever against players for their scumminess except for "Player X is scum." Here he jumps on the shinori train which I think is definitely scum trying to go for a mislynch. I go back and forth on Shinori, but after reading some of the interactions between players, I'm seeing more of a connection between the qwints/combinatorial enigma slots and I don't think Shinori is part of that team. Thus he's turned into a town read for me. I caution you guys because scum WILL try to mislynch him. I have no doubt in my mind about that. The same applies for NJAC and Hiraki.

Q: Why did you not go back to voting Shinori? Considering that you initially switched to Elie, the mason claim should result in you voting Shinori again. Would you be willing to lynch Shinori? If not, why? Who would you rather see lynched: Shinori or Jun?

Okay so I finally got around to this.

I'd be willing to lynch either Jun or Shinori, but I'd prefer Jun. Jun seems to be pretty likely scum to me, whereas Shinori is just generally useless and I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he flipped town.

Reading the last few pages now.

Random Jun scum read pops out of nowhere, not backed up by any claims or evidence other than what seems like a simple gut argument. Displays going along with the wagons, not thinking for himself, or scum trying to simply go with the flow.

And that sums up exactly how I feel about Shinori. He's either scum or useless, and based on late D1 I'm leaning scum.

Still not liking his votes on Shinori. Especially since they aren't well explained.

Jun, why do you think my slot is scum (back in post 828)?

So PMyst was a lurker and dropped out, and I haven't been quite as active as I'd hoped because of college. That's all well and good, but your case beyond that doesn't hold up.

If you're trying to go after people who want to "fabricate" a case against Shinori, then try Elieson. I was pretty much just following Elie on that vote - if there's anyone in the town I actually believe, it's him. And I don't have an "attitude" that you can make a reasonable statement of beyond my argument with Telo, in which she was frankly being unreasonable. I'd be very interested to see why you think her slot's town at all, let alone the MOST town.

You're my top scum suspect at the moment, followed by Telo's slot and maybe NJAC.

VOTE: Jun

Ellieson has been outed as a Mason, so the people left that I think were fabricating a case against Shinori are combinatorial enigma, buldermar, Maenara, hiraki. One of those have got to be scum. Alternatively, I notice that numbers only votes Shinori after his train is dissipating. If Shinori flips scum, I'd look closer at numbers. Numbers also jumps onto my train after Shinori dissipates completely

Vote analysis, now that I have a chance to look at it seems to me like Maenara/Shinori/Numbers have some kind of connection since Numbers doesn't vote Shinori until his train passes and he doesn't vote Maenara either. Those three also show up on the Pirate mollie train.

Gotta do some iso's on Shinori/Numbers in light of this, but I don't know if I'll have time before I get lynched/the deadline.

--

tl;dr
My best guess at the scum team is combinatorial enigma/qwints OR shinori/maenara/numbers.

[Smashbard]

If Jun flips town I will eat my hat.

Get ready to start eating. I want this guy lynched tomorrow if I get hammered today. He was my biggest scum read until I switched to Maenara since his train wasn't gaining traction. Maenara and everyone agrees that he seems really scummy, yet nobody wants to vote him with me. Interesting.

Scum. Scum. Scum.

Hmmm... Would red wine or white wine go better with a hat?

Wow...revealing that you are aware that Jun is going to flip town much?

Unvote.

Vote: Enigma

Just to clarify, when someone says I'll eat my hat if a player flips town, and then proceeds to joke about what kind of wine they will enjoy with said hat, that just creeps me the fuck out with scumvibes.

[buldermar]

If Jun flips town I will eat my hat.

Post pic of hat and I'll consider if it's worth it!

[buldermar]

Now to reply (I know it’s a bit outdated but I better answer) to buldermar:

It shouldn't be

that

outdated. I don't think the state of the game changed drastically, as nobody got lynched yet.

1) Well I see them as confirmed town, if we’re trying an agreement on whom we should lynch, then they must actively participate on that consensus. I also liked some of their reasonings so I think they can be very helpful to town and can lead us to victory. I feel it’s an advantage over scums to have claimed masons-confirmed townies, but as I said before I’m not going to follow ‘em blindly.

That was what I was fishing for. There is a small advantage in sheeping them compared to sheeping a person picked at random because a person picked at random could be scum, and scum can intentionally refrain from making cases against- and voting other scum.

3) As I said before I’m expecting her to flip scum and I’ll care to gain info after the flip. I’m also considering what you said in 1053: “completely neglecting what can be derived from knowing that persons true alignment, is a fundamental mistake”. I see what you did in 904 and what you’re trying to highlight, I also appreciate it because it’s a big effort from your part, and it really takes a lot of time to make that kind of posts.

If you've considered what I said in post 1053, you've most likely done much better than most people in this game. I can't force others to share my reads, but I

can

try to illuminate how taking into account certain things is advisable.

However there’s something that bothers me a bit. You made your whole 904 post in response to theomoaner question: “Which scum-team permutations could we eliminate from a Shinori lynch?” I’m not going to quote the whole interaction but you said we’ll gain a “decent amount of information” lynching Shinori, and when asked you didn’t have the answer, even more you never gave a concise answer IIRC, you just went to look for walls of quotes to try to see the interactions and then threw a lot of questions everywhere, and that way you were somehow highlighting interesting interactions between everyone and Shinori.

The initial phrasing that certain scum-team permutations can be outright eliminated was a mistake on my part. I should have stated that certain scum-team permutations can be considered more probable or less probable.

I don't think it's accurate to state that I did not have an answer to what information can be gained from lynching Shinori. In short, post 904 consisted of two components: 1) my personal opinion on what can be derived from a Shinori lynch

if it were to happen right now.

2) questions that I think will elucidate the position of many players or, at the very least, force them to make certain commitments with respect to opinions and reads. I should have made this explicit in my post.

Even more: you almost solved the whole game based on one flip. But your “notes” after the questions directed to players are mostly a lot of WIFOM, when you say someone will lean X when Shinori flips Y. I recognize your effort but don’t see it like the greatest post ever and I can imagine the exhausting of doing it. I tried something like that in my other games (time was never enough to make the posts I wanted), but I finally learned it’s better to be concise.

Well, in a vacuum, everything that isn't a vote leading to a lynch is by definition WIFOM in this game, because everything that isn't a vote leading to a lynch does not directly influence the state of the game (the exception is confirmed roles such as a cop, but I'm ignoring this now for the sake of simplicity). For instance, I could right now insist that I am scum, but it is up to the rest of the players in the game to decide if this means I am more or less likely to be scum. There is no such thing as town or scum behavior, only ways to interpret behavior based on what you personally find more probable given available information (this is what you refer to as X leads to Y).

On another note: thanks for recalling that I wasn't on Shinori wagon, I saw qwints making an incoherent case against me... I'd also like to hear your "different reasons" for me being "the scummiest if Shino flips scum", as you said in 914.

And finally a couple of questions to you: Why exactly are you sure about Maenara's towniness at the point of calling her lynch "stupidity" from our part? Who can be completely sure about someone's scumminess or towniness?

Honestly, looking at post 914 I don't currently recall what reasons I had in mind (I think you're the first to ask, and post 914 was quite a long time ago). I think I could remember by reading my previous posts, but I'd rather not spend time reading them again just for that. If it is important to you, or if you can't trust that I had different reasons, let me know and I'll do my best to recall it.

I think I've stated this a couple of times already, but I guess I'll repeat it: I'm

not

sure about Maenara's towniness. I think lynching her is stupidity from current voters because neither of her voters came forward with what they think can be derived from such lynch. Simply put, every one of her voters seems to be locked into a binary and oversimplistic line of thought in which they solely care about

how likely

she is to be scum. I feel like many simply can't comprehend the fact that it is not always optimal to lynch the person most likely to be scum, and that's mostly what I'm referring to with stupidity.

Few can be completely sure about someone's scumminess or towniness, as you put it, but my point is that you ought to not only consider the alignemnt of each individual player, but their interrelations as well, and I think many are neglecting this crucial part.

Finally, thank you for taking your time responding to my post!

[buldermar]

I think I understand lurking now that I'm actually doing it.

I'm spiralling back into depression, and I'm sure some of the younger players on this site have frequent experiences with this (I did at least). When you aren't feeling well you just don't want to post.

I'm not finding Rubik scummy at all, but he hasn't said anything that I paid much attention to anyways. I'm down for a Jun lynch.

Unfortunately you're unlikely to take into consideration the sincerity of this post if you're severely depressed, but I think I should make it anyway.

First, do you want to get better? If the answer is yes, do this:
- Exercise daily (even if you don't feel like it)
- Get some light/sun (artificially or not, doesn't matter)
- Get up in the morning and get out of your bed immediately upon wakening
- See people/family on a daily basis (even if you don't feel like it)

You

must

do these things despite not wanting to. If you prefer, I can elaborate on why these are important things to do. It is neurophysiologically close to impossible for you to stay depressed if you do these things.

[buldermar]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shinori

I don't have time to elaborate on it right now, though.

[dividizzle]

Wow I glossed right over that Smash...that could easily be a scumslip especially considering the implicit gloating.

[Hiraki]

Congrats. You've found Smash's attitude.

[qwints]

So apparently the only way to get meaningful activity out of Jun or Shinori is to put them close to a lynch. Let's see if it works on Enigma.

UNVOTE: Jun
VOTE: combinatorialEnigma

[combinatorialEnigma]

Would you like me to claim?

[Hiraki]

Enigma replaced PMysterious.

Stop playing these silly games.

[qwints]

Enigma, why would you volunteer to claim with 2 votes on you? There are three other players who have more votes than you right now (I think).

[combinatorialEnigma]

Enigma, why would you volunteer to claim with 2 votes on you? There are three other players who have more votes than you right now (I think).

Because this is my first game on MS? And I'm not volunteering, I'm asking you if you're going to ask.

*shrugs*

How long do we have until deadline?

[qwints]

Deadline is October 13th. I am not asking you to claim at this point, I would not make such a request until L-2 at the earliest (6 votes right now) or if there was an extenuating circumstance.

[buldermar]

My

read on combinatorial is less developed

. First impression is

leaning town

. I'm not quite clear (perhaps because I just finished reading his iso) where his case on Jun becomes so intense. He seems very certain at this point but that surprises me a bit. Other than that, his

early posts struck me as quite town, though since then not as much

. Still

probably leaning town

and I would definitely advocate a Jun lynch over a combinatorial lynch.

What use is this? To me it looks like you're conveniently sitting on your fence.

[mykonian]

votecount

maenara (5): jun, eleison, NJAC, dividizzle, shinori
jun (4): theomoaner, combinatorialEnigma, 10506670, maenara
shinori (3): hiraki, Thebuttonmen, buldermar
cobinatorialEnigma (2): smashbard, qwints

not voting (0):

With 14 players it is 8 to lynch (7 to no lynch)

Deadline is on the 13th of october

[buldermar]

Jun: obvscum

Div: useless lurker (yeah, yeah, I know I'm being hypocritical by calling out someone else on that),

not sure but leaning lurky town

.

Check my last post. Look at this again. Coincidence?

[qwints]

Enigma replaced PMysterious.

Stop playing these silly games.

I don't understand what the point of this post is.

[buldermar]

THE LYNCH SHINORI CAMPAIGN
- by buldermar

Guys, we currently have 14 vores spread among 4 people. The information I got from asking various questions suggested that many of you wouldn't mind lynching Shinori, but would rather lynch someone else. However, many of you have strong opinions about who

not

to lynch,

making a consensus on someone else virtually impossible.

I forget who I'm responding to (was either buldermar or qwints), but I'll state my views on Shinori. He was just so incredibly useless until this week, and my initial reasons for voting him are centered upon

1. Having not thought of a better candidate
2. Because he was useless and distracting me from doing 1

However, I have now thought of a better candidate, helped by the fact that around 200 posts ago Shinori actually attacked someone legitimately.

So I'm only considering a Shinori lynch if it comes down to the wire - otherwise I'm pushing for Mr. Jun.

10506670 wants Jun lynched, but will consider a Shinori lynch if it comes town to the wire.

I'd be willing to lynch either Jun or Shinori, but I'd prefer Jun. Jun seems to be pretty likely scum to me, whereas Shinori is just generally useless and I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he flipped town.

combinatorial wants Jun lynched, but is willing to lynch Shinori.

Maenara isn't scum and lynching him would be a bad idea.

Shinori has no interest on dealing why she's scum or town. Therefore, she must be eliminated.

Hiraki wants Shinori lynched, and will not lynch maenara.

After the mason reveal, I am ok with lynching Shinori.

Combinatorial Enigma, Maenara, Shinori, and Theomoaner are my top scum reads.

Jun is okay with lynching either.

At the moment, I'm looking at a Jun/Dividizzle/CombinatorialEnigma/Buldermar as the anti-town players

Maenara is okay with lynching Jun and combinatorial (and me because pro-town=SK). I couldn't find a recent opinion on a Shinori lynch.

2) Yes.

(when asked if he would be willing to lynch Shinori)

NJAC is voting maenara but willing to lynch Shinori as well.

qwints has been temporarily voting all of jun, shinori, combinatorial and maenara today, and is seemingly willing to lynch either.

Dividizzle: I want to play Weird Al's "Waffle King" just for this guy. I used to have a newbtown read on him. But he's so stuck on "Gee that Shinori wagon sure piled on fast, I'm so unsure!" that it makes me consider the very real possibility that Dividizzle and Shinori are scum.

I support a Jun lynch. His flip will cement my reads on Shinori, Hiraki and Dividizzle

Vote: Enigma

Smashbard considers is a real possibility that Divi and Shinori are scum. Supports a Jun lynch. Supports a combinatorial lynch.

So did I since last week. I asked the mod why he replaced the other guy even though I asked first. He said it was so he didn't have to change his sig. I have gotten crap over replacing out of this game and I haven't even been replaced so.
VOTE: maenara

Telo will vote whoever because he wasn't replaced.

Lynch Shinori people.

Look at that post then look at his last one. He's trying to coast out the wagon on him and you're all playing along.

TheButtonmen supports only a Shinori lynch from what I read.

I think Shinori is at least top 3. This in conjunction with him displaying extreme anti-town behavior and a flip providing a decent amount of information (e.g. we can eliminate a decent amount of scum-team permutations) makes him the optimal person to lynch in my opinion.

Which scum-team permutations could we eliminate from a Shinori lynch?

Having answered this question, theomoaner never made any further objections to my suggestion of a Shinori lynch, giving me the impression that he's not against it (this is quite speculative, so correct me if I'm wrong). He also supports a Jun lynch.

People that explicitly declared that they will do a Shinori lynch if required (or outright wants him lynched):

10506670
combinatorial
Hiraki
Jun
NJAC
qwints
Smashbard
Telo
TheButtonmen
(Maenara is unclear)
(theomoaner is unclear)

Even excluding Maenara and theoaner,

we're counting 10 votes with my own.

If you don't think you belong on the list, tell me so. Else, vote Shinori now

, because a consensus on someone else is unlikely to happen and a no-lynch shenario would be disastrous.

[combinatorialEnigma]

Sure, I'll lynch Shinori.

VOTE: Shinori

[qwints]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shinori

[dividizzle]

@buldemar regarding post addressed to me. What do you mean what use is it? Do you want me to make up a firm view when I'm not that confident. I'm sorry, I won't do that. You are telling me that you are 100% sure about the alignment of every player in this game? If I had to decide now I would say he's town but obviously I'm not sure, I apologize if my lack of omniscience inconveniences you. By the way treat this post as if it came before his most recent potential scumslip, which I haven't thought through.