Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over

[buldermar]

Actually, now that I think more about it claiming masons as scum would almost always be suboptimal, and I think Eleison especially realizes this. Currently I'm leaning towards not lynching and hoping that an investigator will investigate one of them and claim.

smashbard, would you elaborate on your current scumreads?

[mykonian]

votecount

maenara (4): hiraki, NJAC, theomoaner, combinatorialEnigma
combinatorialEnigma (3): jun, eleison, smashbard
jun (2): 10506670, dividizzle
eleison (1): maenara
hiraki (1): Thebuttonmen


not voting (1): buldermar

With 12 players it is 7 to lynch (6 to no lynch)

deadline is on the 27th of oktober

Eleison hasn't picked up her prod, so I'm currently looking for a replacement. However, this has become a 50 page large normal by now so it might take a while. If you have a friend who might enjoy playing with you, don't forget to ask him!

[Smashbard]

Unfortunately my wife already knows what's going on, who I am, my alignment and my role. So I don't think offering her to take place in this game would be allowed under any circumstance. Even if she would just be taking over the Eliesons place and not have anymore information than Elieson would.

[Smashbard]

I can say with about 90% certainty that these are my reads. Based off of what has happened thus far this game as well as the most recent suggestion to lynch a Mason.

Town:
Theomoaner - Probably the most protown person this game. So if a mason is not lynched today and we have a protective role, I suggest protecting him. As the scum have had a pattern of destroying the most active and protown players each night so far.

Dividizzle - His ability to come to the conclusion that lynching a Mason is suboptimal because Mafia would just kill the surviving mason is spot on town logic. If he were Mafia, I would never assume he would kill their ace in the hole strategy of getting rid of the Masons by exposing it like that.

Hiraki - He's not scum. For reasons stated below. As scum he would be all over a chance to lynch a Mason. Most importantly, he's always had his OWN reasons for joining the most popular wagons. Making me think he's town laying low, rather than sheeping mafia.

Elieson: Mason partner. Herp.

Jun: Enigmas hat joke as well as Jun being the first to call Buldermar scummy for his suggestion. I may not agree that Buldermar is scum, but for someone who's intelligence has been called into question recently he certainly has big grapefruits for accusing one of the most protown players of the game of being scum over a lynch suggestion that doesn't even involve himself. If he was the sheep scum everybody keeps saying he is, he would of jumped on Elieson in a heartbeat. Also, his refusal to vote Shinori or Hiraki early in the game ironically being his most scummy tell before, has now become one of my biggest town reads of him.

Buldermar: Although his suggestion to lynch a Mason is the exact scumtell I've been looking for to nail scum for sure, I'm going to remain vigilant in believing that Buldermar is town. His only suggestion is due to the fact that none of us has a better idea that is universally agreed upon that's a good lynch target. So he's trying to get the game moving in the only way he knows how. I am now wary however, due to the fact that I believe Buldermar as town should be smart enough to know that lynching a Mason would directly lead to the second Mason being killed in the night, taking us right back to square one.

Null Reads:
Numbers: Normally I would say his lack of activity would be scummy. But I think it's explicitly against the rules for someone to use real life problems such as depression or a relative dying in order to gain town points when they are scum. So I don't think he would do that kind of move to gain an edge. Still, he hasn't done enough to solidify himself as town in my eyes.

TheButtonmen: He needs to elaborate on to his Hiraki wagon. As both of them arguing back and forth using one or two lines a piece isn't going to convince anybody of either side. They both are laying low, but TBM hasn't shown the same independence as Hiraki. But most of that is due to not having to tenure that Hiraki has in this particular thread.

Scum Reads:
Maenara: I wanted to say that Qwintz dying was an obvious set up for Maenara. But this guy is looking for literally any wagon he can sheep on just to get somebody to agree with his reads. As town you don't go from thinking one guy is suspicious, to a second target, to a third target, to a fourth target in the process of a few days JUST because the wagon isn't gaining traction. He's been testing the waters to try and see who would be a popular policy lynch and is getting frustrated that nobody is going a long with his wagons.

NJAC: Asking around the town to see how they feel about the Masons so that he can be careful enough not to suggest a Mason wagon if it would make him look too scummy or suspicious. But now that the ideas gaining traction he feels comfortable coming out with his scum strategy. Like Maenara, he's been testing the waters to see how everyone else thinks BEFORE he makes his move. He's more dangerous than Maenara, due to the fact that he's remained calm while Maenara has become impatient.

Enigma: My town read on Jun almost relies solely on the fact that this guy has been taunting us about how Jun will flip for over a week now. He's seriously gotten to the point where all he is posting is spam fluff now taunting everyone who tries to bring suspicion upon him. He's overconfident scum who knows that if his greatest scumslip isn't going to get him lynched, he's almost lynch proof, and he's rubbing it in everyone's face.

[Hiraki]

As scum he would be all over a chance to lynch a Mason.

Masons are the things that I would never touch as scum.

Where are you deriving this reasoning?

[NJAC]

@Smashbard: do you realize that every "town" read you've got, with the exception of Buldermar, are the people who rejected the idea of lynching a mason. Have you ever thought that one of them could be scum being quite sure you're town, and trying to gain town cred by refusing to join a wagon on a mason?

In the other hand, and I tell you this because I've been expected a lot from Eleison and you, you need to admit that it's difficult at this point to blindly trust your claim, with all the WIFOM involved, and it's not like you're helping a lot to clear our doubts.

Is it bad or antitown that I ask questions to people to see what reactions we can get and try to catch scums?

[NJAC]

Actually, now that I think more about it claiming masons as scum would almost always be suboptimal, and I think Eleison especially realizes this. Currently I'm leaning towards not lynching and hoping that an investigator will investigate one of them and claim.

smashbard, would you elaborate on your current scumreads?

Why exactly claiming masons as scum is suboptimal?

[NJAC]

If you are to lynch a mason, which is a horrible idea, then I volunteer. After I flip, I will be sorely be dissapointed in you guys if Elieson dies tonight as a confirmed mason and no protective role tries to save him.

I explicitly said: STOP THE I'M-FINE-WITH-LYNCHING-ME ATTITUDE.

Jesus, if you're actually town why do you agree with lynching you, just like PM and Shinori did?

[dividizzle]

I don't think we should rely on an investigative role to look at the masons because I assume that would have already happened. Especially if we were on the brink of making the absolutely crucial decision of whether or not to lynch or trust the masons, that would obviously be valuable.

Also @Smash: Do you really think that Maenara and Enigma could both be scum?

[Smashbard]

I have town reads on all the players who trust my claim because I know that it can be trusted.

[Smashbard]

I'm not letting you sew paranoia and discord for us anymore. Its time we solidified our reads and not let people like you keep casting doubt. Everyone should post their scumreads so we can find common ground.

[Smashbard]

Seriously, I'm not about to 'HERP DERP. These guys trust me they must be scum HURR'. I'd rather lynch the scum that would want the masons lynched so you dont have to waste a kill on us.

[Eleison]

Hey guys, I'm back from vacation again.

Found out my wife is deathly allergic to Naproxen (found in things like Aleve, Bayer, Aspirin, etc).

It's all resolved, and she's fine now. Got her a medical alert bracelet, so she's all set.

Reading thread. I left off right after watching a hat and a fork on video.

Current thoughts: Jun x Mae scumteam. Give me a bit to catch up and form more logic behind what's in my head.

[buldermar]

Smashbard, many of your reads are based on flawed reasoning. While you know your own true alignment, this is not the case for everyone else. Even though you may know for a fact that you're a mason you can't just rationalize that anyone pushing a lynch of you or your partner has a scummy motive. In fact, from a global vantage point it may be the optimal town thing to do. On that same token, you also can't reason that someone

not

pushing a mason lynch is town because, from the scum perspective, it may be more optimal to lynch someone else.

Actually, now that I think more about it claiming masons as scum would almost always be suboptimal, and I think Eleison especially realizes this. Currently I'm leaning towards not lynching and hoping that an investigator will investigate one of them and claim.

smashbard, would you elaborate on your current scumreads?

Why exactly claiming masons as scum is suboptimal?

One investigation will effectively reveal two roles, meaning that not only are you more likely to be investigated, you're also losing your partner in the process.

I have town reads on all the players who trust my claim because I know that it can be trusted.

Again, this is flawed reasoning. You and the players that trust your claim does not have the same amount of available information. If they don't know whether it can be trusted you simply don't have an incentive to think whether they trust it or not is indicative of role alignment.

I'm not letting you sew paranoia and discord for us anymore. Its time we solidified our reads and not let people like you keep casting doubt. Everyone should post their scumreads so we can find common ground.

NJAC: strong town read. I made a mental note of it earlier - I'm sure I can figure out why I have this read if I ISO him.

Maenara: I'm leaning scum, partly because the whole involvement in the CE episode seems odd. Also Maenara has willingly been changing targets rapidly. For instance, when I suggested discussing lynching a mason it quickly led to Maenara leading charge. Also tried to push the idea that I'm a SK, without any succes.

CE: I'm leaning town but that's solely based on CE and Maenara being an equilibrium with respect to alignment; I don't see them both being scum.

Jun: I've no clue, but could see a Maenara-Jun scum permutation.

Eleison/smash: I think I've managed to convince myself that the claim must be sincere, and I'm willing to take the 10%-20% guaranteed loss that trusting this claim may entail.

Numbers: Too lurking, I've no clue.

dividizzle: I'm still leading scum - quite heavily actually. I do realize that my case is thing but, at the same time, actual scums sometimes don't make any significant slips because they're more wary of their behavior than actual town members. This explains why I see a ton of fence sitting, not many commitments and also not any major mistakes.

Hiraki: I don't know.

Theo: Been really pro-town, but also an intelligent person from what I read. I think his alignment is skewed towards town, but it is not a final conclusion the same way my read on NJAC is.

BTM: I don't know.

I'm sorry that I don't have more reads to offer. I think it's better that I'm accurate with the ones I got than throwing around reads for the sake of it.

[theomoaner]

Get off your high horse before you fall off. I forgot to answer because of a certain lil' incident with a certain lil' video.

If I get on a horse of any size any time soon you'll be the first to know

Me wanting him dead means I - based on what information I have at the moment - reckon he'd be a fine lynch on another day.

And yeah, I do have opinions on the rest of y'all. TBM asks questions that need to be asked, so he lives. Hiraki is too apathetic to say much of anything, so he's too shaky to lynch at the moment. Numbers is a null-read 'cause he ain't saying much of anything. Got a sorta townie read on NJAC after my skirmish with him. Buldermar is Credit To Team, and needs to stay alive if only because he's one o' the few people I can see making sense around here. And you? Eh, you dig and you contribute. If you're town, we need to keep you around, and if you're scum, it'll be more clear when more things have happened.

There.

Thank you, so,
Please quote and explain the relevance of the six questions that TBM has asked so far.
Numbers hasn't done enough to be anything other than a null read, how does that tie in with your "cases" on CE and Jun, both of whom are scum for lurking.

Nice bit of fence sitting on a Theo read there too.

@Theo: what is it so bad to lynch one of them?

It doesn't get us anywhere ultimately, let me explain.
1. Masons are town, we have another myslynch, and loose someone else to the NK, we're at MYLO
2. Masons are scum, we lynch one of them today, lose a town to the NK , quick lynch the other day 4 without gaining any other information, lose anther town to the NK, who would almost certainly be a PR based on a standard role distribution. then you are at day 5, heading into MYLO still needing to find 1 or 2 scum (and maybe a third party) having lost a PR and probably another of our better players. If they have a rolecop (not too unreasonable an assumption) they are virtually guaranteed to have found, and executed, a PR by day 5.

I think it's much better to at least try to find scum based on evidence today, even by random vote (assuming 4 scum and masons claim is correct.) we have a 2/3rds chance of not myslynching. If we lynch a mason I'd put the odds of hitting scum at about 12-88 against, because there is little evidence that the masons are scum.

I'll have a set of reads up soon.

[buldermar]

I have to point out another thing that I've thought about for some (real life) days. I find it unlikely that we don't have an investigation role, although it definitely is possible. If we do have one, it could easily be Hiraki. I'm aware that this may draw a kill, but I've looked into the consequences of Hiraki dying and it benefits town more than most other kills would. There are some posts that could be interpreted as breadcrumbs, but I can't trust it to be the case before a flip happens. If Hiraki is not an investigation role then drawing a nightkill is optimal anyway. I need to point this out now in case I am killed tonight and nobody else has noticed.

Hiraki, don't claim now - that's suboptimal regardless of your role with the one exception being if you actually investigated a scum.

[theomoaner]

Reading back I don't think I explained that as well as I could of, I hope you got the idea though.

[buldermar]

You make 2. sound so bad when it's way way better than the scenario of not lynching a claimed mason who is scum.

[theomoaner]

^Just saying it how I see it. I'd rather the serious scum hunting to find the remaining scum not be left in the hands of, shall we say, the less capable/interested players in a couple of days time.

Anyway those reads.

Scum.
Maenara - poor case building, opportunistic voting, overly defensive.
TBM - based on Telos non-existent play and his continuation of it
Numbers - Thurhames play, post are mostly just defensive, and genral lurking

Null
Jun - I've been working on the idea that Jun was scum but I'm reaching the conclusion that he is just not very good at this game, at this level.
CE - Lurker but I don't see anything scummy going on at this point, it would be nice if he joined in the game properly.
Hiraki - Where have you gone Hiraki?

Town
Smash - Consistently town play, until his crisis of confidence, but he seems to be coming back from it.
Elieson - By assosiation with Smash, otherwise he'd be null.

The probable fourth scum is amongst those not in this list, I have an idea but I'll keep it to myself for now, I want to see a bit more first.

[Hiraki]

Hiraki - Where have you gone Hiraki?

What do you mean?

[NJAC]

@Eleison: Welcome back. Eager to see what you have to say...

[10506670]

I forgot to say I would be V/LA, but I'm back and better than ever.

Honestly I see very few paths for town to take. We can go on slinging forum evidence at each other, but I have little faith we can win without the help of PR's. I don't think we should lynch the masons in any case - Smash looks town to me, and I am willing to gamble on that in order to achieve a crucial scum lynch before the end of MYLO.

If we drag to MYLO without a PR claim, we are going to be stuck in the huge WIFOM of MYLO claiming. Scum can claim whatever they want with much less consequence than on other days (they can't get lynched back) and CC's are going to be nearly impossible to prove. I think any PR with at least some valuable information should claim now, especially in regards to the masons. If you found scum that's even better, but given what we have, I don't think that's happened.

Most of you are looking so scummy at this point that I'm beginning to think my standards were a bit too high. And that goes for Jun:

UNVOTE: Jun

though I might revote soon.

[buldermar]

Most of you are looking so scummy at this point that I'm beginning to think my standards were a bit too high.

We missed you ;D

[theomoaner]

What do you mean?

I mean you have gone from, for example, the attempt to analyse the game that was post 41 to dropping in pointless one liners like 1101 and 1107

[TheButtonmen]

Sorry for silence, post will go up within 7-9 hours. I've got called away unexpectedly.