Micro 89 ~ Mafia Rarefaction Segunda (Game Over!)

[Leafsnail]

Can someone ask a question or make a case or something

Please respond to me in some way Konowa

[Leafsnail]

:\

[callforjudgement]

OK, so here's a question. Leafsnail, Konowa, I'd like you to explain, from your point of view, the circumstances leading up to Tierce's lynch, especially in terms of what you think people's motivations were.

[Konowa]

OK, so here's a question. Leafsnail, Konowa, I'd like you to explain, from your point of view, the circumstances leading up to Tierce's lynch, especially in terms of what you think

people's

each others motivations were.

Sure. We know that despite what your intentions were, your [cfj] motivations were town since we know your alignment. Conversely, fitz. I'll go back and look over Leaf since I really don't remember much about his vote switch to Tierce. I think already, briefly at least, explained why I switched to Tierce. But I'll go back over that as well.

[Konowa]

Okay, so Leaf voted Tierce in 707 for "defending Tierce and Parama". By that connotation it would make more sense to lynch Parama first, at it would directly point to a Tierce lynch. However, what I am thinking is that despite Leaf pushing Parama as scum all day he is noticing that no one is going to be willing to go along with it. So he hops onto the Tierce wagon as he notices that it potentially has more traction to it.

As a side note, there is a nugget of great relational tell between Trevor/Leaf in 747 that Tierce clearly incorrectly interpreted.

[Konowa]

Trevor is PFFT. Don't like how he makes sure to say that he's also interested in voting konowa but doesn't vote him. And konowa has not only been missing from this thread but has really put in next to nothing here.

I like Leafsnail more. However, in the interest of time:

Vote: Konowa

Leafsnail is scumread #1, Konowa scumread #2. This is important.

To save the trouble.

[Leafsnail]

OK, so here's a question. Leafsnail, Konowa, I'd like you to explain, from your point of view, the circumstances leading up to Tierce's lynch, especially in terms of what you think people's motivations were.

Sure.

Post #670 (CFJ): You vote Tierce, for being overly reactive and concerned with self-image while at the same time refusing to engage in the game properly due to time constraints. I don't see any reason for there to be ulterior motives on this one

Post #707 (Leafsnail): I vote Tierce, partly for selectively using the "I don't have enough time" excuse (which I felt actually fitted her self described "I lose motivation as scum" meta), but also due to what I saw as an attempt to defend Parama by ignoring the question I put to her many days prior. Yes Konowa, the fact that nobody was voting Parama was also a factor considering there's no point in pushing a lynch that can't happen

Post #710 (Parama): Parama says Tierce reads as scum but doesn't vote her. At the time I saw this as suspicious - as Parama trying to distance himself from Tierce but not actually push her lynch if it was avoidable. This thus made me more sure of my Tierce/Parama suspicion. I now know this was actually Parama trolling for no reason

#723 & #724 (Konowa): Konowa says he doesn't like the push against Tierce, implying he disagrees with it. He complains that Tierce is stalling, but states that he believes the scumteam to be me and fitz. I think the motivation here is simple - at this point he and fitz are both sitting pretty tight, so he can just continue stating the same read as before so as not to rock the boat, while also not trying too hard to derail the Tierce wagon.

#725 (Parama): At the time I saw this as Parama trying to start a wagon on someone who wasn't his buddy (even though he'd said Tierce read as scum). Now I know he was joking about his Tierce read or something? Whatever. The important thing is that this takes on an interesting significance now I look back due to...

#727 (Konowa): Konowa appears to refuse an offer from Parama to lynch someone he thinks is scum, bouncing a question back to Parama instead (which he never follows up). There's nothing particularly wrong with the question, but if he were a townie believing fitz were scum you'd expect him to either take Parama's offer or explain why he's not taking it. As it is he just kindof ignores it. The scum motivation for this is clear: to not risk making his partner the lynch, since going to Rarefaction would be far preferable.

I then make two posts getting angry at Parama and go to bed.

#744, #747 and so on (Tierce): Tierce names Konowa and fitz as partners due to spotting an odd interaction.

At this point Konowa suddenly seems to wake up. #746 tries to pre-emptively discredit Tierce's pairing (the way he does it is odd considering he did something similar to come to the fitz/Leaf team he supposedly favoured), but in #752 he changes tack and begins attacking Tierce (although he doesn't vote yet. His stated motivation is bizarre - apparently Tierce was wrongly accusing him of bussing? It really didn't seem like she was. And if she is scum why not vote her in #752?

I'd also like to point out he does not explain who Tierce is scum with, something he's been asking everyone else all game. If we assume it's Tierce/Leaf then it seems odd he wouldn't at least comment on me voting her.

In my opinion this makes a lot more sense when viewed from a "Konowa is scum" perspective: he had to prepare to place another vote on Tierce due to the fact that a) Tierce had called his team and b) Aeris seemed to be reading scum more on fitz following #751. This meant that a 3 person wagon on fitz was a very real possibility so he had to ditch his fitz suspicion and find an excuse to grow the Tierce wagon to three if needed.

#758 (Konowa): Leaf/fitz is still Konowa's favourite pair apparently. Even though he called Tierce scum in the previous post? He's probably hoping he can avoid jumping on the wagon at this point and thus keeping his options open. Not sure why he doesn't mention the fact I'm voting Tierce here

Many Konowa vs Tierce posts: I honestly don't understand what most of Konowa's posts are saying here. Konowa's stated intention (he finally votes Tierce because she's being dishonest in some way?) here really does not make a lot of sense - I definitely don't see him coming up with a coherent scum motivation for her. I think his actual reason for finally voting is that Tierce is ripping holes in him and he now really needs her to die today. He still doesn't explain what team he favours now.

Tierce switches to fitz since she can likely pressure him harder than Konowa due to Aeris' possibility of switching. Incidentally

The timing of my shift from Konowa to havingfitz was definitely deliberate. He's not voting; he'll probably vote me in self-defense

This is quite amusing in retrospect

CFJ and Tierce clash again briefly - CFJ's reasoning is kind of valid (and town) but I think he misses Konowa's extremely suspicious behaviour here.

Aeris and Tierce talk a bit, nothing particularly hard to explain here.

#797: fitz hammers. We know he's scum, and I think this is a perfectly logical move for him to make as scum considering

a) Tierce has called his team.
b) Aeris has narrowed his team down to two of three (me, Konowa, fitz), and is questioning his partner Konowa heavily.
c) Parama is already voting him.
d) I had previously expressed suspicions of Konowa, and Tierce had mostly fixed the things that caused me to vote for her while pointing out all kinds of flaws in Konowa's play and appealing to me to change my vote. Thus it would not be outside the realm of possibility for me to vote Konowa (or at least unvote Tierce) once I woke up.

Thus it seemed highly likely that the Tierce lynch would fall apart, and the only likely alternatives were him and Konowa. If one of them got lynched it would be extremely unlikely that the other could survive two more lynches with all these people gunning at or almost gunning at their specific team.

Thus fitz decided that, even if it outed him as scum, he had to take Tierce down since that was better than the alternative. There was a better chance of them scoring one mislynch at Rarefaction (probably me) than two mislynches following a scum lynch day 2.

One line summary: The situation got bad which made Konowa vote Tierce for self-defense, then the situation got terrible which made fitz hammer Tierce as a last ditch move.

[Leafsnail]

Trevor is PFFT. Don't like how he makes sure to say that he's also interested in voting konowa but doesn't vote him. And konowa has not only been missing from this thread but has really put in next to nothing here.

I like Leafsnail more. However, in the interest of time:

Vote: Konowa

Leafsnail is scumread #1, Konowa scumread #2. This is important.

To save the trouble.

Also, trying to qualify anyone's interactions with Trevor is awful.

[Aeris]

Leafsnail - do you realize that both days when you voted for Trevor, you unvoted him and voted the person who followed you onto Trevor?

Hmm...I need to finish reading through Trevor/fitz and thinking about a few things. Both leaf and konowa have things I'm considering. I'll have time to make a proper post tomorrow.

[Leafsnail]

Leafsnail - do you realize that both days when you voted for Trevor, you unvoted him and voted the person who followed you onto Trevor?

Yes. I believe I made my reasoning for doing so clear both times.

[Leafsnail]

Why are you doing this to me.

[Vi]

~Vote Count XLVIII

Aeris
Konowa ~ Leafsnail
Leafsnail ~ Konowa

Parama (voteless)
callforjudgement (voteless)

--Deadline is January 14, 2013 (in

(expired on 2013-01-14 21:00:00)

).

[Aeris]

Why are you doing this to me.

Do what

Okay, I think I have everything done that has to be done tonight, so I can actually do something with this game. I will be around more from now until deadline day too.

[Aeris]

I will also apologize in advance for the thought dump that will occur in a bit as there are some things I've been thinking about and I don't really have a clear idea one way or the other.

[Aeris]

Oh also vodka...wheeee

[Leafsnail]

Do what

Everyone falling silent, in particular Konowa but I guess that one isn't so hard to explain.

[Konowa]

Lawl.

[Leafsnail]

thanks

[Aeris]

Okay let's start with konowa. I've had the strongest scum read on him all game, and he's both dead confirmed town thought he was scum. Why I originally had a scum read on konowa was because he seemingly parked his vote on me day one, and I thought it was a safe place to park it as it was unlikely to really lead to anything and I did have a really awkward start to the game, and he mostly talked from the sidelines. What I do like about his early game is the way he pushed tierce early day one. Specifically Posts like Post 265, though I haven't decided whether or not I like or dislike the falcon part. He gives reasons for why he thinks falcons response to tierce is scummy, but it also looks like piggybacking off of tierce's case and not looking at how falcons response to tierce was actually more town than scummy. I do like that he just uses gut for tug for the second person though. Scum typically try to show their work some and are less likely to use "gut" for reasons.

Although I hate doing it, I'll look at konowa's last scum game or two that was referenced. Bleh.

I like his asking tierce if shes ever planned a game breaking strategy as scum in Post 312.

What I don't like about day one is his complete lack of interaction with Trevor. He doesn't even mention him once. He doesn't interact with the cfj slot either though.

Still, he ignored the "rvs" vote on him by Trevor as well as what falcon was saying about Trevor and their back and forth.

On day two he started talking about Trevor but only after he was asked. On day two, he started going through this whole teams scenario. His what about this team seem mostly baseless and seeing what would stick, but also without a clear plan, which I would more expect from scum. I also liked Post 531, seemed earnest.

In Post 551 he puts together his tierce/Trevor or tierce/leaf teams. Then decides its tierce/Leafsnail in Post 573 then in Post 624 says its most likely leaf/ Trevor while still thinking that tierce/leaf is possible and votes leaf. One of the reasons he thinks leaf/trevor is leaf's ignoring of Trevor (frustratingly enough konowa has also been ignoring Trevor). He does ask leaf a very valid question in Post 630 regarding why leafs scum read on Trevor disappeared because it's something that's been puzzling me as well. His Post 644 comes across rather townish though and supports his earlier suspicion about tierce/leaf.

His Post 667 has a point too as leafs question was rather leading. I find a lot of the "would you agree" type questions to be that way though. They almost demand that you agree with the way the question is phrased rather than ask for your actual viewpoint.

What I don't like is that he says he doesn't like the tierce push in Post 723 but ends up voting her. However, I kinda read his interaction with tierce as townish.

wrong wrong wrong why does no one ever listen to me but townish

. Post 752 onwards reads townish to me. Especially Post 773 Bleh and 774. Really, I don't know why leaf said that konowa came out of his interaction with tierce looking bad, a lot of it reads townie to me.

Don't know why he asked who fitz was scum with to parama in Post 727 when he just said in Post 724 that he thought it was leaf/fitz.

I liked Post 895 and I know cfj gave konowa a hard time for not voting in Post 896 but I actually really liked it. I know there's no mathematical reason not to do it, but not just automatically cross voting is town motivated because you don't actually know. It can just as easily come from scum, but waiting to see if the game would end anyway suggests you don't know for sure what's going to happen.

He makes a point inPost 912 with leaf not offering up his own reasons for why konowa/trevorfitz. It's one of the reasons tierce gave konowa an early town read on konowa as he offered up other reasons for tierce being scum than what falcon had said. (though us ause she used this as a positive it's very easy to use it against someone as a negative)

Tl;dr I'm not even sure. I'm starting to doubt my original strong scum read because of the things I mentioned I liked. I actually really like his interaction with tierce as it has a bit of indignation to it that reads rather genuine and what I would more expect from town, especially with the way he described his scum play. If he really is as passive as he says he is, I wouldn't expect the type of interaction with tierce that he has. Like especially wrt things like Post 781 that "I'm glad you think I have no self respect. You are scum" this isn't the type of thing I expect someone who is a passive scum player to say. But as I said, I'll read thought the scum games he referenced to see if that is true.

So, how the Trevor/fitz slot treated konowa:

Trevors opening "rvs" vote on konowa makes me feel twitchy. Sometimes scum, especially newer scum, feel the need to post their partner right off the bat for some reason. In Post 92 he says that konowa and leaf only post in questions. He spends most of his time arguing with falcon and calling him scum before he claims and he votes leaf in Post 302 and says he's also interested in lynching konowa (geeze it's almost like he predicted you guys would be in here together driving me insane). But he votes konowa in Post 470 for the "interest of time" after I complain about his being willing to lynch konowa but not voting him, but in his next post is his vote for TUG after saying he wouldn't vote him and out of "self-preservation".

At the beginning of the day he's voting leaf again, but says in Post 577 that konowa is the second scum, and in his last Post 592 he votes konowa but says we should get leaf next.

i hate you

When fitz replaces in he thinks konowa was suspect for his early tug push and notes that parama considered the konowa wagon in Post 477 and thinks konowa is the most suspicious for being on the tug mislynch.

In Post 855 he says "probably the only way I would suspect aeris more than either leaf or konowa is if konowa had flipped already...and had turned out to be town". Why just konowa flipping already? Why not either of them?

His only interaction with konowa is asking him why he would hammer leaf over me in our cell in his last post.

Tl;dr I'm not overly fond of the interaction that slot had towards konowa. I hate the rvs vote. I hate that he would vote leaf but say he wanted konowa (admittedly this wouldn't be anything at all if I weren't trying to decide between them though). And what I know. Of havingfitz is that he tends to try to defend his partners, keep them from getting lynched, so his edging slightly towards konowa makes me wonder. However, since his VCA was structured to make parama look scummy and he tried to go for the tired one on and one off routine there wasn't much he could do.

Bleh...idk. Konowa's play is largely not here or really engaged but there are some pretty townie aspects as well. Tomorrow I'll see if I can make my way through one of his scum games to see his assessment of his meta, also I'll try to go through Trevor's to see how he treats partners.

[Aeris]

Okay, I'll look at leaf tomorrow, and read through at least one of those damn scum games, but if either cfj or parama have anything to add I'm all ears!

Did I mention how much I hate lylo???????

[Parama]

proddodge srry
I just have not been in a mafia mood lately :\

[Aeris]

okay never mind sleep.

My frustration with leaf's early play is the same as it was. It looks like he was trying to force a parama/tierce team from the get go, and that never really went away. His first two posts/votes were on parama/tierce. I did like in Post 53 when he admitted that his pushes were weak, and he liked to see responses though. He from the start didn't seem to be looking for motivations (something that konowa picks up on later, but i'm kinda paranoid that he's using some of the same language I am

I'm really not self-absorbed I swear

.

He does confront Trevor in Post 252 over Trevor's scum read of falcon after he says he has a town read on falcon. Also, in that post he gives me a little bit of a hard time for not voting. He says it bothers him; he could have given me a much harder time for not voting though and it would have been a really easy thing for scum to do and go after. He also says in this post that he has scum reads on parama, tierce and konowa. I don't really get part of Post "315" though. He says "Your constant defense of Parama is idiotic and I would say scummy if there were a third mafia member in this game." Leaf has noted three people he thinks are potential scum by this point. Why would Trevor be the third one. Also, I had defended Parama as well, so why wasn't I scum for calling Parama town?

He next votes Trevor in Post 318 for pressure it seems. He also questions Konowa in that post, so I'm not sure exactly why he chose to vote Trevor over Konowa, except maybe for quasi-omgus?

I hate the leading "would you not agree" line in Post 325. And then the unvote of Trevor and vote onto TUG in Post 396 after he sheeped leaf. It seems out of place. (And convenient in light of doing the same thing day two)

In Post 400 he seems to use Tierce's reasoning for the tug vote/lynch, and in Post 424 seems like he's mostly voting tug for them sheeping leaf onto trevor. (This looks really suspicious today) But, Post 491 looks somewhat townie as it fits with his parama push.

At the end of day one, he seems to really believe that Trevor is scum. What I like sort of is his Post 538 at the start of day two and in the next post he votes Trevor as the person he finds the most scummy individually but again unvotes him as soon as soon as someone votes Trevor and votes that person in Post 554 then he put his scum team as parama/tierce in Post 563 I hate this amount of consistency because it feels manufactured. (I know I asked him about it before but the addition of konowa doesn't negate the extreme amount of consistency of the parama/tierce scum reads) My problem with the push on both is that it was easy to push on scummy behavior, but there really wasn't anything deeper although his constant lynch parama mantra feels somewhat genuine.

I don't get Konowa's push against Leaf for ignoring tierce in Post 624 as leaf says he hasn't ignored her at all. Don't really know what that's about, but i still have a problem with him thinking that parama was 100% obvious scum as he says in Post 628 , but Post 649 reads genuine. I hate his leading question in Post 664 though. It didn't read as let's lynch early as I can see the impetus for the reaction konowa tried to get from Tierce and it's something I've often seen from town.

Post 811 reads off. I don't like his "I would have changed my vote to Konowa" and then giving a run down of Tierce's arguments for a Konowa/Trevorfitz team. He went hard after fitz after that. Which there's nothing to really say, he had to. I don't like Post 820 as it looks like it's trying to plant Konowa in our minds, and there's really no indication that fitz did it to save Konowa. I know that I made that assumption for the day one hammer because it really did look that way. but, I'm not seeing it for the day two as there was one vote on Konowa, but I can see making it look like that was the intent.

He makes a point about Konowa in Post 893 though. Why did Konowa say he would hammer Leaf, but wouldn't vote him?

Tl;dr: Leaf is playing a really solid game no matter his alignment which makes this really difficult. I do not like at all that on both days he voted Trevor but then unvotes him and votes the people who vote Trevor after he does. He does explain why he votes them, but it does look rather odd now that we know Trevor is scum. It looks like he wants to be seen suspecting Trevor but doesn't want to actually go through with getting him lynched. I do like that he vote hops all over the place though as I tend to associate that kind of vote hopping and pressure with town. I do not like his extreme consistency with the parama/tierce scum reads; there doesn't seem to be a lot of second-guessing of those reads and since it starts so early it looks rather manufactured. The thing that leads me away from him being scum is his activity and his tendency to interact and vote nearly everyone. I'll, even though I hate it, read a scum game of his to see if there is any difference though in his town/scum play.

Trevor/fitz's interaction with Leaf:

As noted with Konowa in Post 92 Trevor says that leaf/konowa seem to be posting in questions, but a couple posts later Post 162 he calls leaf town and in Post 226 says he wont join any wagon that has tug/parama/cfj slot (what happened to the tierce/leaf town reads?). However, after falcon claims trevor votes leaf in Post 302 for thinking that leaf's Post 288 reads fake. His #1 scum read is Leaf according to Post 470 but he votes konowa in interest of time before hammering tug.

At the start of day he votes leaf in Post 512 and says his problem with trevor joining the tug wagon is basically a scumslip. What's weird is he votes leaf again in Post 577 and says that it's a konowa/leaf team. And then in his next post he switches to Konowa but says he wants us to promise to get Leaf next in Post 592

When fitz replaces in the only thing he says about leaf in his catchup Post 731 is that he doesn't like leaf's willingness to policy lynch aceofspades. There was not one comment on the tierce/leaf conversation or the leaf suspicion on parama and he decides konowa is scummier on the wagon (over leaf). He comments to Leaf in Post 814 concerning Leaf's comments to Parama about fitz being obvious scum..says he's in no way clear... He thinks that Konowa is most likely to be scum in our group in Post 841 , but says that leaf backing parama is tarnishing his town read in Post 849 wtf...everyone was backing a parama town read at that point, why single him out.

A bit bugged over fitz asking why leaf over aeris in Post 889 because really he said at one point I was the closest thing to confirmed town in my group, then he said he had no idea for our group, then he said he though konowa in our group, then this question, so I don't even know.

tl;dr: both their interaction with leaf is suspect. The one thing I wonder is would he forget that he gave a town read to his partner the way he did leaf? he gave leaf and tierce a town read in the same post, but leaf did ask him why, so hmm...but i'm of the mind that scum don't forget the reads they give to their partners and unless leaf's why question was a signal to him not to do that I don't know what to think. Trevor certainly danced around giving scum reads to both konowa and leafsnail and before he replaced out changed his vote to konowa with the caveat "get leafsnail next" It almost reads as though he didn't want to leave his vote on leafsnail for too long if he wasn't going to be around. Fitz also seemed to direct us towards konowa instead of leafsnail/seemed to be subtly protecting leafsnail which is somehting that I know he does with his partners. But he had to know he was getting lynched and really anything he says is wifom.

i'll try to read through a scum game of leafsnail's to tomorrow. Now that I have my overview of both of them down, yeah I know it's mostly jsut a summary, I can see what I can make of it this weekend.

[Aeris]

proddodge srry
I just have not been in a mafia mood lately :\

It's okay Please let me know your thoughts by the end of the weekend though.

[Leafsnail]

A few specific responses for now:

- Re: 315. I think I was probably born from anger more than anything else.
- I have used "leading questions" in this game, but I think they are a valid town strategy. They help add more pressure to questions than a bland "yes/no" structure would, and indicate that if the other person disagrees they have to justify their position against whatever reasoning preceded it (it's something that happens a lot in debating for this reason).
- There was only one vote on Konowa yesterday, but from the situation it was plausible that Tierce or I could switch to him, and that would be enough for a swing.
- Re: meta. The only other game I've played recently on this site is 20th Century Philosophy Mafia, in which I was scum. Otherwise there's only 2 year old games and offsite stuff. I could link you to some of those if you want but I'm not entirely sure of their validity.

[Konowa]

I'll go try and go through you wall sometime today and post what I can tomorrow, Aeris. I got another 18 hour shift ahead of me today.