Zar and I are still rereading. At the moment it looks like we're probably going to be focusing on the group {CDB, DV, TML, kuribo}. Not interested in lynching Kise, Nostrodeus or Jason today.
I think I'm legally obliged to defend the honour of the cutest of the Spice Girls.
This could have been her breadcrumbing her role.
Oh, yeah, maybe. Her character-name, anyway.
I didn't really pay any attention to this when I went to look for crumbs myself (I was actually more focused on looking for hidden messages / steganography), but now that you point it out, the word "legally" is somewhat suggestive.
Kise
-- is there some reason you'd rather not say who you targeted last night?
^Some nonesense with Absta connections.. Remind me to look for those tonight (irl) if I don't.
Ah fuck that reminds me agenda CDB/Jason. Got it.
"ITT Benmage is making Shakespeare look cool. I need to bring you to my high school." -Vi
"If i must blantantly follow somone a player cannot do better than blindly following benmage" - tubby216
Not sure he is town. But (given TGAH's big push to get him lynched on day 1), I
am
pretty sure he's not Police. Can't see TGAH as Traitor to a faction that includes Jason. And I'm not interested in hunting for a hypothetical third party today.
In post 2151, kuribo wrote:2) where did kise say he'd rather not claim who he protected?
He didn't. That's ... why I asked?
He's claimed to be a modified doc, and that the modification is "more harmful than helpful". And, clearly, he hasn't revealed his target today. Doesn't take a genius to guess those two facts might be connected.
I don't think we learn anything from his alignment by forcing him to claim who he protected, and potentially it might be harmful to do so. So I'd rather he answer my question before we badger him into revealing information that maybe he shouldn't.
Unless Kise didn't read any of my posts except for the ones he replied to, he's even
more
likely to be scum for noticing me asking zden for targets without that prompting him to go "hey, I, as a pr, have a target too" and revealing his own.
In post 2154, Plessiezarus wrote:He's claimed to be a modified doc, and that the modification is "more harmful than helpful". And, clearly, he hasn't revealed his target today. Doesn't take a genius to guess those two facts might be connected.
There's nothing suggesting the "more harmful than helpful part" refers to the effect itself... plus, consider that he seemed to out Cerulean as his N1 target normally.
In post 2154, Plessiezarus wrote:I don't think we learn anything from his alignment by forcing him to claim who he protected
I don't think that's what kuribo planned to do -- he just pointed out the fact.
In post 2152, Benmage wrote:^Some nonesense with Absta connections.. Remind me to look for those tonight (irl) if I don't.
In post 204, petapan wrote:vifam delivering one liners isn't relevant to his alignment that's just how he posts also he's p clearly posting content so ur dum imho
Calling someone dumb only works if you can actually use correct grammar, punctuation and spelling and not with the result that you make yourself look dumb in the process.
This is a town reaction to an insult. Not that strong but it's good enough to make jason leaning town.
The insult wouldn't really apply to scum-Jason (assuming Vifam isn't scum) so he could've just ignored it. Plus, this looks quite genuine.
He's only slight town because faking the reaction as scum isn't hard, I've done it before.
"This is a very solid reason to think someone is town. Also, he might be scum."
Alternatively: "This is genuine. Also, he could have faked it."
It's stating a town read and explaining it when it isn't popular opinion (EZ for scum) while making sure to leave the option open anyway.
Mostly, it's a good reason to read someone as town so if he knows Jason to be a buddy he shouldn't have a reason to weaken it like that and later go:
In post 436, absta101 wrote:Post #351 by SAD makes some sense. I was town-reading Jason for his gambit but this changed my mind.
Completely forgetting that reason.
I don't think this commentary is even needed -- the quotes speak for themselves.
In post 51, jasonT1981 wrote:Yea but there is not one white person in the Barksdale crew from memory. So anyone claiming a white guy would be not town.
So the key here is something that Cerulean pointed out on page 6. Follow Jason's thought process here:
- some one says they wanna be a white guy-
- Jason immediately says that that would be a scumclaim (wisely, I think, since he didnt think about the lawyer)
- then he backs up and puts together a crappy, poorly planned 'gambit' to catch out anyone with a white guy role PM.
I say the very ineptitude of it shows us that it was
genuine
. He
really did
just think of it right there.. then went for it. That, my friends, is townplay.
NOW- ASSUMING there are actually white guys on the scumteam, I think this is strong town-evidence for Jason, because scumJason would have known there were white guys!
Of course, that has yet to be proven. If it turns out
all
the scum are NOT white.. (which I doubt), then Jason is simply.. brilliant.
Either way, for today I am against a Jason-lynch.
More to follow.. but for now,
[
Jason
,
BT, ChannelDeliBird, Kise
]
"if you weren't trying to be so unnecessarily mysterious all the time we wouldn't have these misunderstandings" - Yosarian2
of the gambit is what gets me... he really did think it up right there on the spot, dont you think?
Fielding that would be reckless for scum, imo.
I think he deserves another day or two.. maybe another scumflip?... there must be a white cop, no?
"if you weren't trying to be so unnecessarily mysterious all the time we wouldn't have these misunderstandings" - Yosarian2
Your argument for SAD being town was terrible though. The fact he did flip town doesn't make it any better.
Anybody remotely familiar with the source material would have guessed, before the game began, that Bubbles would be a character used (he's one of
the
major characters in the series) and that his most likely role was Traitor to the Police (Bubbles spends almost all of the first season working as a CI for the Major Crimes Unit). The fact SAD suggested there could be a traitor with the character-name Bubbles isn't the sort of thing anybody would have gone back to later as a sign of inside knowledge. It really isn't. The post you used to town-read SAD wasn't indicative of alignment at all.
But, look. You gave a bad reason for town-reading somebody and they turned out to be town. Well done? Have a biscuit. Now stop going on about it.
(If you wanted people to take your reads seriously, maybe you shouldn't have made such a fuss about being terrible at scum-hunting and losing most of your town games? Just a suggestion .)
Went back to look for some scum!absta meta. In particular, I wanted to know how absta interacted with his partners on day 1 as scum. So I only looked for games in which absta was scum and an original player (not games he replaced into).
(This post might tend towards being a wall, so I'll split it into two. Call this part 1.)
I found a few games. Not sure if this is a complete list (although I think so?). It isn't a huge sample, either, I guess.
In Micro 114, absta replied to his partner's post to ask a (soft) question. This was actually one of only a handful of posts he directly quoted and questioned like this all game. Absta later suggested his partner "could easily be scum" but didn't push this or vote for him.
In Newbie 1290, absta replied directly to about two-thirds of the players in the game. This included his partner (both before and after his partner was replaced). He told his partner he was "looking scummy", but didn't repeat his suspicions. He gave no read on his partner's replacement, and the replies he directed to the replacement were either reactions to questions (like his partner asking him for reads) or soft, alignment-irrelevant questions of his own.
In Open 432 absta had two partners. One of them was lynched on day 1. Absta did join this wagon, eventually, but was clearly very reluctant to do so (he twice jumped off to try to find a new counter-wagon, then had to limp back on). He only voted for his partner at all when it became clear she was the preferred lynch. He had earlier agreed she looked a bit suspicious, but then done his best to ignore her (though he did find time to direct a few questions to her posts).
His other partner was extremely inactive and ultimately replaced. Nonetheless, absta found a post of his to quote and ask a soft queston about. Absta never gave a read on him.
There seem to be a few constants here.
1) Absta always tries to "interact" with his partners on thread (by quoting something they say and asking a question). He does this even when he's not doing the same to most other players, or when the partner in question is very inactive.
2) Absta never gives a town-read on his partners. He might give no read on them, or he might (weakly) accuse them.
3) However, absta does not bus his partners early. He doesn't follow up on any suspicions he might claim to have. He doesn't push them for a sustained period and he doesn't want to vote for them if he can help it.
Will look at what this means for this game in part 2.
Unlike SAD, who apparently thought absta was deliberately being inactive, it seems pretty clear to me that absta was genuinely overwhelmed by the size of the game (don't think he would have been as inactive on day 1 as he was on purpose). Given that, I doubt he'd have made any conscious effort to change his meta.
So I'm willing to guess the three constants I identified in part 1 will still apply. What does that do to the suspect list?
That is, how did absta interact with {Cerulean, Benmage, JasonT1981, camn, The Mini-Librarian, Deasvail, BT, kuribo, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird, Kise}?
Spoiler: 1
In post 2166, Plessiezarus wrote:1) Absta always tries to "interact" with his partners on thread (by quoting something they say and asking a question). He does this even when he's not doing the same to most other players, or when the partner in question is very inactive.
Absta directed questions or comments at most of these players. The only two he completely ignored were CDB and Kise. Willing to drop both of them as candidates for Police for now.
That leaves {Cerulean, Benmage, JasonT1981, camn, The Mini-Librarian, Deasvail, BT, kuribo, Nostredeus}.
Spoiler: 2
In post 2166, Plessiezarus wrote:2) Absta never gives a town-read on his partners. He might give no read on them, or he might (weakly) accuse them.
Absta gave town-reads on Jason, on petapan and on DV. So remove all three from the short-list of Police, too.
That leaves {Cerulean, Benmage, camn, The Mini-Librarian, BT, Nostredeus}
Spoiler: 3
In post 2166, Plessiezarus wrote:3) However, absta does not bus his partners early. He doesn't follow up on any suspicions he might claim to have. He doesn't push them for a sustained period and he doesn't want to vote for them if he can help it.
Absta only cast three votes all day. One was a RVS vote, but this was on petapan anyway so not relevant to this analysis (since he's already been crossed off the short-list). The other votes were on SafetyDance and camn. So remove camn from the list as well.
That leaves just five names: {Cerulean, Benmage, The Mini-Librarian, BT, Nostredeus}.
Reasonably confident, based on absta's past scum-games, that the remaining Police can be found in this group.
Liking Pless's analysis a lot; good to see my read on TML lining up with it. Would like to see some more momentum in TML's direction; for some reason we seem to have slowed down today. I'll be doing some more reading tonight but I'm pretty happy that we're on the right track for the time being.
In post 2165, Plessiezarus wrote:But, look. You gave a bad reason for town-reading somebody and they turned out to be town.
You do understand that wasn't the only reason I thought he was town, right?
It wasn't JUST the setup thing, it was also the early role-playing, the constant posting, the fact that he was obviously and genuinely scumhunting, and finally just my good old-fashioned gut feeling that his unfettered style screamed out "Hey, I have the freedom that only comes with a town role PM!" The cases made against him were absolutely terrible.
I don't get your point about me saying I'm "terrible at scum-hunting." I've openly admitted that I had a pretty shitty year and that I stopped playing Mafia last year because I had become angry and bitter. Not mentioning that here won't change that fact.
damn right I want that biscuit, this diet makes me irritable
Hearye, hearye, whichever honkey hears me! YES I'm here to talk my shit and NO I don't think it's a good idea to say who I protected last night - right now.
Two options. Work with a brotha. 1) I keep telling you who I target for as long as I'm alive? 2) I tell you why I'm such an expensive doctor; why it's possible there's a vig instead of SK?
In post 2170, kuribo wrote:It wasn't JUST the setup thing, it was also the early role-playing, the constant posting, the fact that he was obviously and genuinely scumhunting, and finally just my good old-fashioned gut feeling that his unfettered style screamed out "Hey, I have the freedom that only comes with a town role PM!"
Did you even bother to read any of his scum games?
"Constant posting", in particular, is in no way at all a town-tell for Arthur. He was the top poster (by a distance, I think) in both his last scum games (one here, one off-site). Role-playing (which he gave up under pressure when pushed, anyway) isn't a town-tell for Arthur either -- he comes from a site where early-game role-playing is much more widespread than it is on mafiascum. I firmly believe he would have roleplayed whatever his alignment. And he wasn't "obviously scumhunting" at all. He didn't have the confidence in his reads I'd have expected from Arthur as town, lots of his claimed town-reads came from nowhere and contradicted his earlier posts, and he wasn't aggressively going after his scum-reads in the way I'd have expected either.
But whatever. This is a complete waste of time. It's bad enough Arthur is going to be smug about how I was wrong once I get to the dead thread. I don't want to deal with that in-game, thanks.
In case anybody's wondering, the fact I googled the claimed role name myself is a large part of why I believed Kise's claim. It's also why I wanted to avoid him being pushed to reveal who he'd targeted today. Note that Faraday clearly read the thread this role was proposed in (he posted in it). It seemed much more likely that Faraday had remembered this role, and used it in this game, than that Kise had just happened to claim an obscure modified role that had been proposed before in a thread which Faraday had posted in.
.) 
