MS Fantasy Camp 2: Reaper's Tale! (Finished!)

[Flipping Awesome]

@ Nero Cain, I was referring to the fact that Tammy knows Kanye gets reads off of his early interactions and his lack of developing reads from his vote on Sixty was a red flag. For instance, in the game I linked below, she found it suspicious but let him go and he went on to win the game.

Subject: Mini 1538: POWERFUL WIZARDS (SpyreX Lives!)

Kanye could also have pushed his Tierce vote more strongly; I'd have loved to have seen him do his early rvs thing where he's pushing to get reaction and he doesn't care who tries to stop him and he pushes against anyone who defies him just to get a read. But he didn't in this game.

Also, kanye's limp-wristed "but i wanna" is terrible too. You'd already posted; he had something to use for his early game push material for reactions and he just went wa-wa.

tammy i believe u dont quite understand the conditions under which i do what youre thinking of.

I think you typically get your best reads in the first few pages of the game, and I think when you're motivated you work to make that happen, and I don't really see that here.

Compare that to this game here:

can someonet ell me who i should sheep i dont wanna read those first pages

*twitch*

Also did noone seriously but me have a problem with Kanye's first post?

The thing is I can see the suspicion on Kanye and I absolutely hated that he just kinda floated into the early game with a "not gonna read these pages" given what i know about how he reads the early game. I let him talk me out of the suspicion on him in the Wizards game for a very similar thing. HOWEVER, he's dipped out of activity in other games before and I haven't seen him on skype in like a month, so I don't know if I'm giving him suspicion for something that's not. Though in the Wizard game he pretty much worked hard to manipulate any suspicion I had of him and walked a balancing act of trying not to inflame the paranoia I had on him.

Empire has him in his poe pool though, so IDK.

Also did noone seriously but me have a problem with Kanye's first post?

People saying that they're not reading bits of the thread seems like pretty standard stuff to me.

But iirc Kanye gets his best reads from the first few pages of the game. Empire says that he thought it was just MattP, but I'm pretty sure it's Kanye too. In the Wizards game, this bothered me too and I let it go, but I'm pretty sure this just isn't ordinary for kanye.

It just makes way too much sense as town. Why would she draw attention to her buddy's scumtell for no reason at all when she could have let him skate by and potentially win the game. That would be unnecessarily sabotaging the scumteam.

@ Reckoner, I explained the Cerulean read, as for the Nero Cain read, I feel it is quite obvious. Even putting aside their role, based on their D1 interactions, it feels pretty obvious that Nero/Venmar really wanted to get the other lynched and it didn't make sense as a bus nor does it feel like a bus. I don't find any of their interactions contrived at all. It didn't feel opportunistic or like something they had to do to distance from each other. Was there anything that bothered you?

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SIXTY HOW CAN I SHEEP YOU IF YOU KEEP VOTEHOPPING
-Nobody Special

You shouldn't be. Vote scumar with me!

vote:Venmar

learn to read me

Well calling me shit instead of explaining to me why my reason for suspecting you is wrong doesn't fill me with townie vibes and makes me think you lack basic social skills.

also everything you said about me =/= scum, being "wrong" (which, lol, i still don't think I was) isn't a scumtell

What's the pro-town motivation in miscategorizing the Kats lynch?
I have a town read on Kats
I have kats town meta that suggest its town
I have a scumread on a player voting kat
The seem like the only pro-town reasoning for you to be against a kats lynch and you had none of these so....poo-pooing away a lynch 'cause its a "policy lynch" despite no one even calling it a policy lynch or voting kat 'cause we don't like it.

I don't really have much of a case on Sangres other than gut/that early no lynch vote was dumb and some other reasoning I rather not go into right now. And mmmaaaayyybbbeee bussin' Kat.

BECAUSE YOU SAID THIS THE SAME POST YOU FUCKING EXPLAINED YOUR READ, WHICH IS AFTER I MADE MINE.
2) that is the worst reason i have ever seen to vote for someone, because you think someone else was bussing them... before you even have a flip... and considering the busser would be the better vote..THATS DUMB, NERO, DUMB.

Saying that Sangres may be bussin' kat=//= my Kat read.

once I told you that I was not voting Kat for policy why were you not all "U B LYING,Nero!!!"?

thats what im doing now smartass

Yes, NOW. Not back in 538/539 when I told you that I wasn't voting Kat for a pl.

i think kat is town because of this, you're still essentially scumreading him for policy/annoying reasons whether you want to admit it or not.

I will admit to some frustration but, a person that isn't giving any content is hard to read and is basically a coin flip. Not helping town and making yourself difficult to read don't seem like pro-town traits so me and anyone suspecting that seems pretty normal to me.

There's literally no reason for Venmar to be upset. He thought I was voting Kat for a pl, I told him I wasn't. Instead of just saying ok, and changing his stance he just blows the hell up over a misunderstanding? We should lynch Venmar and his fake rage today.

Also, I read through Nero Cain's scumgame and realized that the markers that I'm using for him aren't as good as I originally thought so I need a reset especially since my other head disagrees.

Or maybe PA is just an idiot and you shouldn't listen to her. Now vote scum Venmar with me.

it's not a non sequitar at all, I'm trying to get you to come over to the Venmar wagon

Funny that, I'm trying to get you to come over to the Nero Cain wagon. I can understand buy Venmar's as genuine more easily than Nero Cain's picks of easy targets for superficial reasons and then winning a logic war with Venmar.

???????
You know that this place is smurfed up when a player can play anti-town as smurf (like Kat!) and then the player that speculates that its not town gets called scum. This is why I kill Kat when I have bullets, though I haven't played with him in awhile so I didn't remember what he did as scum but there are players that are trolly/non-committal who flip scum so...

You had the same reaction to Sangres' "no lynch" vote.

I am not the only one that found Shadow dense/scummy for thinking that my name in blue made me town.

And I just don't like Venmar calling Kat a pl and then he flipped out when I told him it wasn't.

I don't really have any strong reads on Reck, UT, NS, Plum, KKB or you (though defending obv scum Venmar makes me worry!)

Maybe I'm wrong on TH. Didn't really care for his 787 but I don't really remember anything else that I absolutely hated. I guess I can ISO him and see.

The only other thing that slightly concerns me is LLD's claim. Its possible she could be claiming for town cred. Wanting to use her ability day 1 when there's very little information and is more likely to hit town doesn't seem like the best use of said power. I had her role - the no lynch thing in Nexus' WWE game so is she making the no lynch thing up? Its plausible that Minaday could deviate from the role so...idk.

These are some of the posts that make me think a Nero Cain/Venmar team is very unlikely not to mention Nero Cain was the counterwagon to Kanye as well. His reasoning for Venmar scum was pretty solid. Venmar was mischaracterizing the Kats lynch as a policy lynch when it was not and essentially whiteknighting a townie for poor reasons.

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Re-reading and I am at Plum's first post. This bugs me for a lot of reasons:

Why would a

town framer

ever use his ability if it isn't compulsive? The only way a

town framer

works is if it's negative utility, and it's only negative utility if it's compulsive. Not believing the claim.

Rolecop, etc. Even if that were needed given what everyone's saying about the Moderation team's design ethos.

To summarize my take on the thread since my V/LA:

Everything to do with Tim Howard makes me hate things. Like the meta. Thanks to Hearthstone, I've now learned to complain about it as its own entity, not just as a pseudo-scumhunting crutch.

There are just things I can't imagine are reliable long-term scum tactics, that he is consistently doing, but perhaps they are.

Harping and harping on Sixty's behavior towards Blue-Tammy to no scumread or scumhunting or possible positive effect, for one (for most, actually, of what I recall of his posting these past two days).

You hedge hard on Tim Howard here. The underlined part says essentially nothing. I could buy that you were waffling or don't know what to think of Tim Howard but I tend to find that it is easy to follow the thought processes of players that waffle a lot, but in your case, I have no idea what you are trying to say. I think you are saying that Tim Howard is too bad to be scum but maybe he is? Your next sentence is a valid point. Yet, it is a point that has already been hashed out before. You offer no new opinions or insights.

Certainly I only partly get the on-and-off-again Katsuki wagon, which isn't even engaging the guest of honor (so why bother with it?), and am utterly lukewarm on the stuttering attempts to broker a Shadoweh wagon. I'd love to just trust CDB on everything - it would make this hellish Day 1 a lot easier, cut TH and was it Ven or Zed or some other recurring topic out for the noise column right away.

You hedge on Katsuki here again offering nothing substantial and not committing to any position on him. You talk about his wagon not engaging him. I don't understand what the relevance of it in relation to alignment.

On that note, has CDB done anything this game but say "trust me, meta"? I'm sure I don't recall. Oh, well, not much, besides that Shdoweh push (which in fairness is mild but persistent), though his comment about the gamestate being weird and hard to read is true enough, so I'll hold more complaints and wait and watch there.

You again hedge your read on CDB. If you wanted to see what CDB had done so far, it isn't very difficult to check his ISO. Your comments about his Shadoweh push are again ambiguous. Is it a good thing that it is mild or persistent?

Tempted to vote Nobody Special, so expect one at the end of this post for people who skim for bold official things. It only hurts so much because it's barely better than an arbitrary division of what I'm treating as noise and what I'm treating as signal, and I'm sure there's some very legitimate meta that says this overall tone or behavior or both are normative for NS, but who gives a damn? Frankly, my dear, etc.

This is vague, ambiguous, and arbitrary. I have no clue why you voted Nobody Special at this point.

I apologize for being one of those who hasn't been in much and has contributed to the pile of people not worthy of trust because no attention drawn to yet, and unnecessarily caused potential future problems to crop up because of that. Most sincerely sorry. I'm sure there are a share of Townies in that pool aside from me, making this all a pain, though hopefully not a tedious chore as we forge on.

This feels like an incredibly fluffly way to say "sorry for being inactive." Why all the fluff? (Note to self to check up on meta for this)

Tentatively trust the party on the now dispersed TH wagon more than the average composition of Shadoweh or Katsuki wagons, by the by.

This also seems really vague. I could go and check the votecount in Post 501 and I'd say you trust {Shadoweh, Zdenek, Untrod Tripod, Nobody Special, Katsuki} who were all on Tim Howard. And then you vote NS anyway for reasons that are unclear.

Okay, Nobody Special. I will do my part for this despiriting mess by forcing you out on the field of battle! Only by fighting can we see how you move! And how I move. Because you've just been outright flitting, gently, uselessly, all but silently from one soft suspicion to another hahaha how cute nope no more shadows and lurking for you, you scum. Nor me, me Town. Let me rectify my mistakes.

Join, my friends. Nobody Special goes down or proves his steel.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Nobody Special

I hate, hate, hate everything about this post.

[Flipping Awesome]

If you are town, show me where I am wrong. And please do better than "cases are scummy."

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Plum, besides me, who are your scumreads? Townreads? Thoughts on them?

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I agree NS looks the towniest of the four. I think his vote on Kanye was the most internally consistent since he had suspected Kanye before. I am not 100% certain yet as I still need to re-read. I am not yet sure who out of Reck, UT, and Plum are scum and I am not convinced that Plum is town.

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I don't think it matters that much. Its a 5/2 split at this point. If we think scum are in Reck/plum/UT. Of those 3 I think that Plum is least likely to be scum. So even if we lynched plum and plum flipped town then it would go to a 3/2 lylo with Reck and UT as scum so..town win.

but I still suggest that lynching from Reck/UT is the best plan.

If I trusted NS to make the right decision in LYLO, I'd probably roll with the plan but I am not comfortable leaving the game in his hands. If we lynch Reck and UT and one of them is scum and the other town, it'll most likely leave NS, Plum, and probably me, or Cerulean in a 3P LYLO. I don't want the game to get to that point and I don't think NS has been engaged enough with the game to guarantee a win should he be the decider in LYLO.

Anyways, I don't think you are wrong track with UT and Reck as I am not townreading either of them. I just want to look over all four possible players (including NS, to be safe) before I figure out who is the best lynch.

On that note, one thing that made me hesitate on Reck is I felt some of UT's posts may be buddying him. Specifically, the part where he hard townreads Reck and placates him when Reck suspects him. To me, that looks like a UT-town/Reck-scum possibility. What are your thoughts on that?

Hope you get well soon, Tammy!

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@ Nero Cain, I meant UT-scum/Reck town possibility.

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N4: "Hot or Not" @ Nero Cain

Using it on Nero Cain N4 after Venmar was lynched on D4 and flipped scum is just WTF.

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We're Shadoweh, and we have three abilities:

1) We can voyeur a player each night:
N1: We voyeured Chamber because he claimed self watcher and we wanted to see if we could collaborate watcher + voyeur results. But we ended up being neighborized by him. We got no result.
N2: We voyeured Cerulean and got no result.
N3: We voyeured Cerulean. No actions targeted Cerulean N3.
N4: We voyeured Shadoweh. We were told that no roles targeted Cerulean on N4 and that Shadoweh was targeted by a killing role N4 (I don't have a clue why we got results on Cerulean).
N5: We voyeured ourselves. We were told that no actions targeted us.

2) We can change the avatar of one player to anything we want as long as it contains pink. We did this on N3 (guess who!) but for whatever reason, it only worked D5 (instead of D4 so it got delayed by one day, I don't know why).

3) We randomly fall asleep each day meaning Lost Butterfly posts that we have fallen asleep once a day. It doesn't affect the game.

Obviously, something with the timeline is screwed up. I don't get why we got no results on Cerulean N2 but got results on them N4 without targeting them. I also don't know why their avatar was supposed to change D5 when we targeted them N3.

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Tammy, are you drunk? I'd like to hear your druck suspects off the top of your head if you are. I'm sad to hear Empire won't be here but then, he's probably not this funny when he's drunk so there's a silver lining.

Also, go ahead and claim. I am not really particular about the order. Just want to get all the claims out.

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Also, SleepyKrew should claim.

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Tammy, you should have a waffle ability. Whoever you call town, you should also be calling them scum within the next five posts and back to town again within the following five. Faraday lacks imagination!

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SleepyKrew, I am not sure I buy your commuter claim especially since Nero Cain claimed bulletproof. That would make two essentially bulletproof roles that the scum can't kill because they can't kill a commuter either.

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but her role is mina not Tammy.

I know

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So who is Tammy scumreading?

You, me, Reck, me, UT, Skrew, Plum, me, you, Plum, Reck, UT, and me.

[Flipping Awesome]

Can someone talk to me about reck? Like I play most of my games with hoe people play inconjunctio. Tigh how I've plated with them in the past. So I expect for Nero to yell at people as he has. I expect falcon to meta read people, have you I'm sorry I'm pretty drunk right now, but I'm still feeling like I should have never fucked up the way in takes like I did and maybe just maybef I didn't there we'd have run that game and In the few moments when I can get empire to talk to me he tells me my little paranoia bits are stupid snd I just want to listen to him. But what was I saying OH look at the reckoning. I totally used the red wedding game for why I thought reck was town. In fact, Cdb, Mille and I discusse it and Cdb tried to use it for eh I sjouldny be using it to town read him. He said that reck would basically try to meta duck on that. Will you look there and he? Am I being insane? I don't know if joe I'm bring meta ducked on that. I'm like just look and tell me?

You didn't fuck up Tales, I did. But no point dwelling on it.

Anyways, on Reck, I actually attempted to read him through meta by going over Red Wedding and The Reckoning (although I don't know how many of the posts from his hydra were him and how many were his partner). I find Reck hard to meta-read tonally or based on content since his towngame isn't something I can relate to and he is one of those people that are difficult for me to pick up differences on just based on cold meta. The notable thing I noticed was what you discussed earlier regarding his hammer D1 on Metal Sonic. I remember him asking MS for a short case and then voting Generic based off of it very casually and I don't like that he basically did that with UT on D3 saying that UT was manipulating him. But it isn't conclusive and I'm not sure. I also don't get where UT got this really strong townread on him either. But yeah, I'll look through it again and post more thoughts on it.

[Flipping Awesome]

YOU

Whoa

I'm tone reassign Nero Cain and flipping awesome for defo sure

Empire'stold ishould feel this way

I'm reevaluating everyone else right now.

I know you are drunk but what's a "tone reassign?"

[Flipping Awesome]

Cerulean [Empire/Tammy]
Plum
Untrod Tripod
Nero Cain

Here's my 50/50 lynch pool. TBQH I'm not buying the whole Nero Cain thing which seems to boil down to, "There's no WAY scum would bus that hard!!?!?!?"

So, the people outside the lynch pool are me and SleepyKrew? And why do you have Cerulean as inside the lynch pool? Talk to me about that read.

~~~

I was following a recently finished Tammy scumgame where she racked up yet another scum win surviving and winning the game. But her play here seems a lot different. There, a lot of it didn't make sense. Her pushback on Ffery-Kaze felt genuine at that time and I was only sure she was scum once they were in 4P MYLO.

[Flipping Awesome]

Talk to me about why in this game, Cerulean is still in your POE pool.

There are plenty of stuff Tammy did that she can't fake as scum, the Kanye push being one of them, her interaction with me/Sangres/Sixty/Shadoweh being the other.

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I agree with you about Plum and in a gamestate where you are town, Plum is my biggest suspect.

I wish I could be more confident in my read on Cerulean. I wrote a long wall to Penguin about my concerns as well as the reasons why I am townreading them. I'll try to condense it and post it bullet form. As far as Penguin's reads are concerned, she certainly seems suspicious of Cerulean and isn't telling me that I am being stupid for not being certain. I've played about a dozen games with Tammy (she was town in all of them), and I had townreads of varying strengths and this is one of those games where I am really not sure.

[Flipping Awesome]

The above was at Reckoner.

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How in the world can you town read Reck and or UT?

I am not townreading them but IF Reck is town, I feel Plum is probably scum. A lot of Plum's walls felt fluffy and disengaged and I am not seeing her as town. Although to be fair, I strongly dislike Reck's interactions with Kanye and I have no idea how UT got this very strong townread on Reck. So, I don't know. The only person I'd bank the game on is you. I think Cerulean is town but I won't jump out the window if they happen to be scum.

[Flipping Awesome]

SleepyKrew: weak townread based on NS's posts, a little weaker than Cerulean read.

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Nero Cain, how confident are you in Cerulean being town?

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Tammy, I have been talking to you and I have been trying to figure it out and most of D5 was me engaging you on your reads. I didn't say I thought you were scum. I'm just less sure than I should be and I know it sucks and if you are town, I'm sorry for being paranoid. I don't want to upset you especially if you are town and I am not even reading you as scum, I just wish I was as sure as I usually am. I know you can't handle mafia right now but you are still posting elsewhere and that made me wonder. That and the recently finished Fairy game makes me think I can't read you as well as I thought - or least, your scumgame is at a level where I have to do major re-evaluations in how I read you.

Penguin isn't posting because she checked out of the game a while ago when she went V/LA. She's still busy irl but has been posting about once a day in our hydra QT and giving me her thoughts and support and I think that's awesome. I'm not going to badger her to post in thread because she is busy.

[Flipping Awesome]

I re-read your ISO again this morning after the game finished and I read the scum PT as well. So I can talk to you now. The difference between the thread and the PT is the difference between night and day. In the thread, you were attacking Nacho and Bert, felt like you were genuinely scumhunting, considering all the possibilities about whether Ffery/Kaze are scum or whether NachoBert are. On the other hand, in the scum QT, you were falling apart expecting to get lynched over your apparently obvscum play whereas in the thread, ETL and Antihero were calling it the most obvtown play ever. I don't know. I've never played with scum-you so I don't know what interacting with you-scum would feel like so I don't have a basis for comparison. The only time when reading that game I thought you were scum was in 4P MYLO where I realized that you not gamesolving and stalling was pretty scummy. That went away when I realized you didn't hammer Hyperion but it turns out, you had your reasons so that's pretty irrelevant.

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I get it; I'm not majorly concerned about the Penguin thing like I said, it's just something that tickles a bit. As far as posting elsewhere, well one thing should be relieved about that. I was scum in another game and prioritizing that at times because I didn't want to let my partner down, that and I really was relieved not to really worry about having to figure out a game, and I didn't want the 'you're posting elsewhere and not here tell' to be used on me because i'm really aware of things like that when i'm mafia. As far as the other, that one should be super duper obvious right now. Last night, I was checking here while playing skype mafia and blowing off steam but noone posted, which isn't a grand excuse but I really didn't want to deal with mafia in the first place and definitely not as hungover as I was. I obviously can't defend myself for games that are ongoing, but if I'm ever posting somewhere else, the only thing I suggest is to read what I'm doing. Like last night the only reason I posted in the game that ended was because it was lylo and deadline and I didn't have to actually think about anything, just try to decide when to hammer and freak out because I thought that I was going to lose that game by hammering.

And I mean I get it paranoia is paranoia it's nearing end game and after the paranoid spiral I went on you about in Tales of, I have no right to get upset especially considering you also went paranoid on me there too. I just get freaked out when I'm alive this long and people get paranoid of me because I think that I'm going to be the reason town loses and it starts to set me on edge.

Okay, that makes a lot more sense now and if you are conscious about the "not posting elsewhere" tell being used, you'd probably have posted more. I don't think your interaction with Venmar is unfakeable considering you bus as scum but I'd be surprised if you pushed Kanye the way you did here.

So, I read the Reckoning as well to see what you were saying about Reck and the only thing I noticed was that most of his early suspicion and votes were on scum (although I think he voted you once). I didn't pick up on any tonal differences between there and here. I'm not sure what to make of him having an issue with you using RW to meta him here but being fine with it in The Reckoning. He says it is because he was correctly being read as town there whereas incorrectly being read as scum here and it is an okay'ish explanation though not groundbreaking.

~~~

I strongly dislike Reck's POE pool. It doesn't make sense and I half get the feeling he is shoveling suspicion on Cerulean to make me paranoid. I don't generally get paranoid of universal townreads but Reck and Nero Cain suspecting Cerulean makes me want to be absolutely sure just to make sure I'm not erroneously defending scum. And that makes me think Reck might be scum.

Combine that with the fact that he voted Kanye early and then unvoted to push the Nero Cain wagon for no apparent reason. Tammy, you said you were sure that Reck was town here and you'd draw a line in the sand saying that you were right in the Reckoning and you think you are right here. What changed since then besides Reck taking issue with the RW meta?

Also, I am not townreading Plum and I don't get the feeling that she is putting a lot of effort into solving the game but feels more like she is coasting. I get that the UT case feels townish and I totally buy that "look at this guy and his Cerulean read" felt super town but by itself, I am not sure that's enough for a townread. I had the feeling that she might be subverting meta just like Penguin did in Tales to great effect.

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I'm not buying both a doc and a commuter in the same game and SleepyKrew claiming commuter feels scummy. It feels like a SleepyKrew-ish fake-claim.

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But UT protecting Reck every night when he was under such suspicion doesn't make sense either. Nor does Reck blatantly targeting people that suspect him without regard to whether they were scum or town.

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Okay looks like we actually are claiming. I have no reason not to go now.
Zorblag. Troll. I'm an x-shot Commuter. Also I have to sign my posts. There's a penalty if I forget to sign a certain number of times per day.
-SleepyKrew

Why is Zorblag a commuter? Can you paraphrase your role in your own words?

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I live under a bridge (in Seattle!), away from everyone else.
-SleepyKrew

Okay, that makes sense, I buy it. He does have "under a bridge" as his location and it

might

make sense as an X-shot commuter.

I feel that with Cerulean's delay power, your commuting ability, UT's doc ability and Nero Cain's bulletproof, that's a lot of people that the scum can't shoot any given night. I buy Nero Cain and Cerulean as town. Your ability makes sense. It could be scum with that exact ability and maybe you really are a commuter but scum so I am not sure there.

[Flipping Awesome]

Okay, Tammy, just read through your wall and it gave me awesome townie feelings and explains a lot of stuff like why you don't feel like re-reading the game and why your read on Kanye changed. I know it can't have been easy going over all of the D1 play so thanks for posting it. I feel like I understand your take on the game a lot better after reading your wall. That's part of the reason I got paranoid in that I didn't think you would be so certain in your Reck read only to flip it late game like you did with your Hyperion read in Fairies but reading through your explanation, it makes so much sense as town and I really shouldn't have been doubting my townread on you at all. Anyways my activity will be reduced after tomorrow since I'm going to visit family so I'm going to try and get in as much analysis as possible. I'm on page 28 of my re-read at this point so I'll have more thoughts as I get through it.

What are your updated thoughts on Plum? I still don't like her early push on Nobody Special and the subsequent backtracking of it after being asked for a case. It felt like an attack on low hanging fruit which she later backed down from when people challenged her on it. I also haven't seen a lot of analysis from her in the later stages of the game besides the push on Reck when Tim Howard was being lynched but no vote or any real push to see it through, but she was V/LA which is messing with my ability to read her. Do you have any insights from your past games that I should be looking for when I re-read. I haven't played many games with most of the playerlist here and I am sort of relying on you to help me sort out reads and that's part of the reason I felt so much pressure to read you correctly here, I think it was somewhat similar to you feeling a lot of pressure to get a good read on Nacho in Tales after giving him that power N0 and I do think I was focussing on you more than I should in normal circumstances. Plum's reads make sense to me. She is going from a you/Venmar obvtown reads to POEing the rest of the game. But I am not sure how big a towntell it is. I don't like that she came after me citing Shadoweh's incisive questioning but then I thought Shadoweh was scum too when she came after me following Chamber's nk.

What do you think of UT at this point? I was worried about him late game as I spent time re-reading because it felt like he was buddying Reck and Empire's "evil chancellor" comment does have some merit. But looking at UT/Reck interactions in the Reckoning, I can see why UT doesn't want to suspect Reck and go down that same rabbit hole again. There are things that bug me about UT though, one is the doc claim, the other is the reluctance to vote Kanye and I am wondering if Nero Cain is right about it being a Reck/UT team. Also, I figured UT as town would want to protect obvtown rather than Reck each night. Reck who was being suspected by a lot of people. Kanye also spent time defending UT but it came right after you said that the UT wagon was bad. I don't know if Kanye would jump in to take a stance against a declining wagon on a scumbuddy whereas it would make a ton of sense as a weak whiteknighting. Role-wise, I have trouble seeing both UT and Skrew as town so I am not sure I buy a Reck/Plum team although individually I find them scummy.

Also, how much experience do you have playing with SleepyKrew and do you have a read on him yet? I think I've heard him say you haven't played together but I'm not sure. The commuter claim actually makes sense with the flavor so I buy it but it isn't alignment indicative.

As far as Reck is concerned, I found his play a bit different from The Reckoning at least the way he reacted to suspicion. It felt very over the top there especially in response to Fate scumreading him and I can see why you townread him here based off of his reaction to Sixty. What do you think is the scum motivation for Reck objecting to your meta-read on him here? I just strongly dislike him having you and Nero Cain in his POE pool as it feels like he is stretching credulity by still considering that either of you could be scum over say SleepyKrew/NS. The "he could be bussing" response when asked why he targeted Nero Cain upon Venmar's scumflip feels too simplistic and not like he was actually trying to read Nero Cain because Nero/Venmar didn't look like a bus at all. While hypothetically, it is possible, I don't think it is very likely. I also thought there is far less scumhunting here than in The Reckoning. What do you make of him voting Nero Cain in Post 1603 and then coming back and saying to hammer Nero in Post 1930. ISO him from the first link and there isn't actually a lot of content and it feels like he is somewhat disengaged from the game. But it could make sense from a town viewpoint as well if he genuinely thought Nero was scummy but the actual reasoning for voting him was pretty weak.

Overall, I am back to thinking at the same place as I was at the beginning of the day. I am sure that you and Nero Cain are town and not sure which two of Reck/UT/Sleepy/Plum are scum. We can't lynch them all so I'm going to have to figure out at least one more strong townread to bank the game on.

[Flipping Awesome]

Someone please tell me about the Sheep Majiffy or Thor thing. Was it an extra vote when Nero and Venmar were on the same wagon?
-SleepyKrew

Yes. Pretty much that.

[Flipping Awesome]

Nothing. And as I recall, Venmar is aware of that ability and Nero Cain isn't.

[Flipping Awesome]

I was talking about Reck.

[Flipping Awesome]

On page 30 right now and I reached the next Plum wall. I don't like this one either.

I'd argue that NS isn't an easy target inasmuch as he is not easy to get traction on, only easy for others to dismiss as an easy target. Or maybe I'm just shit this game so far due to a combination of internal and external factors. He may be an easy target, and I'm not super confident in my read here, but a read it is, will I or nill I.

You defend your position that NS isn't an easy target and then undermine it by saying that you may just be <expletive> this game due to a combination of vague "internal" and "external" factors. You then say that he may be an easy target after all, negating your previous statement and defend that it is a still a read "will I or nill I" whatever that means. The entire paragraph here says nothing at all other than NS may or may not be easy target.

I do believe NS is deliberately blending into the background. I think the placement of his votes is opportunistic - not in the traditional overblown "lol I can take advantage of it to drive a Shadoweh lynch here and now!" but come out of a desire to take advantage of certain things in the gamestate. I think that was possibly the case with his TH vote and more likely than that was the case for his Shadoweh vote. The stagnation of the Shadoweh wagon is largely to his discredit in this matter.

This is really vague. I at least like that you made a direct accusation i.e. NS blending in but then use really hedgy and flowery language to describe NS's votes.

Take a look at the others on it: CDB I'm meh on, but he's interacted about the way the wagon he basically started has been moving a little, at least. I feel there's a reasonable chance he's sincere even though he's minimally readable overall.

So, you are basically dismissing CDB as town for no reason. If he is minimally readable overall, why do clear him in a faux-POE of the Shadoweh wagon to go after NS? Your "townread" on CDB is incredibly weak, too. Why is mere interaction with the wagon he started point to him being town?

Chamber, besides other Townish signals, I think is also showing honesty about the wagon he's on and how it's developing.

This is again really vague. I can buy having a gut townread but your reasoning here reads as somewhat contrived. "Honesty about the wagon he's on?" What does that even mean?

Same with Cerulean (the distractions/multiple foci/getting into arguments with the target all normal). Is it *typical* of NS to do what he's doing? To place this sort of vote and just not give a damn, even though for someone complaining of the pervasive Day 1 malaise in this game, his hook on the game is much stronger and more useful than, say, mine: he having convictions that the one he's wagoning is scum, and she has the largest wagon? Meh.

To votehop a series of bad, irrelevant nonwagons like Rack when he'd done as little as Reck, skip over to the momentarily popular TH wagon, Shdoweh, quick vote off onto me because everything is meta (and for me, being meta is suffering), back to Shadoweh just kinda because? The wagons here that had meaning because they were large or controversial were there for him to merely be on, not remotely participate in.

To hell with it, I'd take that fourth wagon vote twice in a row, no drive, trajectory-obscuring thing as scum. I might well be wrong. And I don't feel super confident about anything here because it all sucks, mkay, will try to get myself together here and IRL, but for the time being, NS.

What I hate about this post is that there is no conviction and no real scumhunting drive behind Plum's posting. It feels like too much surface level analysis that is meant to look good but doesn't feel as if Plum thought she actually caught scum that she was pushing.

Sixty, I'd have even said you're right about me being on a nonwagon no one will follow except that every possible wagon has been completely stagnant for about three days and that I'm far from the only one complaining of horrible Day 1 unmooredness, but for you, MIRACLES. They come cheap.

MIRACLES:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Tim Howard

You are also on a bad wagon for mediocre reasons and ALSO a wagon that should have gone further and stalled and retreated later than it did, huh. If we want to move things? We'll move them. I'll try to help.

V/LA through Tuesday evening, more Passover

And now she switches over to Tim Howard upon Sixty's request. Granted this is just D1 and Plum's D2 posts are better so I'll get to them soon.

[Flipping Awesome]

Also Tammy, I actually agree NS replacing out points against NS/Reck team. I'll provide more thoughts in a bit.

[Flipping Awesome]

Also, note to myself to read this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5780877

[Flipping Awesome]

Okay, re-read through the UT meta I posted above. Note, I was scum in that game but some of the meta part of the analysis was genuine.

UT definitely buddies townies as scum as well as interacts with his scumbuddies in a way that looks like town-scum. His interactions with Venmar aren't unfakeable nor do I believe UT/Reck team is particularly unlikely.

What I do believe is unlikely is a UT/Plum team. UT's response to Plum engaging him was to evade her and say that he has no interest in letting her lead a discussion about him. Reading from Post 1262 onwards should make that clear. I don't think UT as scum would miss the chance to engage and refute her arguments.

I also think that he wouldn't have reacted the way he did if he and Plum had decided N1 that they would orchestrate scum theater.

I believe the scum are one of {Reck, SleepyKrew} and one of {UT, Plum}.

[Flipping Awesome]

Reck, you said that you initially voted Kanye because you thought Zdenek was crumbing a guilty which makes sense from the first two of the following posts. But why did you vote Kanye again after unvoting and voting Tim Howard?

VOTE: Kanye

I wish I had anything interesting to add but I don't.

I kinda jumped on the kanye train for reasons I don't want to make public.

VOTE: Tim Howard

baaaaaaaaah

VOTE: kanye

[Flipping Awesome]

Here are links to Plum's town and scum games:

Plum

TOWN: Mini 1537: Attack on Titan, Mini 1538: Powerful Wizards, Mini 1531: Mafia Pinnipedum
SCUM: Mini 1501: We're on a Boat, POWERFUL WIZARD MAFIA, Open 298: Follow the Cop, Might of Mordor

Reading through Plum's posts on Attack On Titan, there is a world of difference between her posts here and her posts there. In AOT, she came across as very direct, inquisitive, and aggressive in a way I don't think she can fake. She exudes confidence in her pushes that look like she actually believes what she is doing. A brief example below:

Subject: Mini 1537: ATTACK ON TITAN (Game Over!)

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Paschendale

Because he's scum.

She also occasionally does cases as evidenced by the following post:

Kaze: Pasche literally and directly misrepped Kagami. He stated that she pretended that Weak meant Normal Weak even though she knew that wasn't true - but she

never

did so; from the beginning she stated clearly that it

wasn't

Normal Weak. So, besides an outright lie and a bunch of fallacious accusations that I lied -

Spoiler: This is really tl;dr because cases are scummy, yo

When Kagami said what Weak signified, Pasche posted a meaty post that did not mention anything concrete about the topic at hand besides 'not being swayed one way or the other' by Bert's Miller claim - the easiest stance for scum at that point. He didn't even bother to say 'I saw what Kagami just posted and [any follow up, even just 'I'm not sure what to make of this']. His post was constructed out of whatever he could say - and stuff easy for scum to say, too -

before

Kagami's bombshell, and he just went with making the post and ignoring it as best he could.

When prompted

about this, he takes the stance that Kagami was outright rolefishing. He here makes the blatantly false claim I noted at the beginning of this post. His opinion that Kagami was trying to out non-Weak for scum benefit is almost certainly contrived. His 'case' against me is scummy as hell:

Plum is mainly just a reaction to her tone, but she did go along with Kagami right away. She was one of the few not to react with "what's a weak miller?" My asking that was another thing I amended in my first post right before submitting it. But Plum fell in line right away. In general, though, her posts contain quips, emotes, and unsupported votes. But nothing resembling cases or opinions.

Try harder. Try harder telling me I lied about stuff. Seriously. That's one of the scummiest cases I've seen in a while. It is all buzzwords. It contains no explanation of why any of those things - assuming I behaved that way - are scummy.

You know what? Remember how CTD found me out in Boat? 'Assess posts based on how hard they'd be to fake for scum.' So. Looks at Post #115, Post #398. Look at them in context. Tell me that they're not easy to make and fake as scum, especially given context. Tell me that those cases aren't contrived and lacking in actual substance. Tell me Pasche is scumhunting. Tell me it's not just words words words. Go on.

Plum says that scum rarely make themselves as obvious to her as Pasch did in that game so I took a look at another game to see how she posts. Reading through her ISO in the Wizards game, her posts there came across as a lot more fakeable and much less obvtown. One thing I did notice though is that she's genuinely trying to figure the game out and interact with a lot of people. Structurally her posts in both AOT and Wizards seem similar. A lot of short posts, one liners, responses and questions with the occasional "case" as shown in AOT.

There is a massive world of difference in her posts in her scumgames both structurally and in content. Most of her scumposts are long, quote-striped walls and feel less spontaneous than her shorter posts. This is true in all four of the scumgames I linked above. Tonally, she comes across as a lot more hedgy as she does here. Most of her early posts are fluffy walls that don't say or do much. She barely commits to positions. There are minor similarities in her positions here and in the Wizards game but major differences from AOT in every way imaginable. I'm going to go into a more detailed meta dive to be sure. I lean scum at this point but I'm not certain.

[Flipping Awesome]

I linked the post where you voted him. It is the last quote. And it wasn't near deadline at all.

[Flipping Awesome]

Stepping out from following along in the hydra QT to note that we were allowed to use our voyeur and pinkify someone's avatar on the same night. So I'm not getting the claim that using Hot Or Not means Reck couldn't have killed or why he didn't ever use his second ability?

FTR, my gut, useless as it might be, says Reck is scum here, and I'm liking Plum less.

Sorry to be so uninvolved--it's pretty much been one thing after another for me the last month and a half, and since F-16 has been moving along I let this game be less of a posting priority.

--PA

[Flipping Awesome]

In other news my doc is still restricted to people who haven't been the third vote on a wagon. I'll show you the lists when I have real internet, but the "why didnt he do x" is a dumb game because not everyone was on the table every night

N1 - Nobody Special, kanyeknowsbest and Flipping Awesome.
I investigated FA

N2 - Shadoweh, Plessiez, Plum, Nobody Special, Flipping Awesome
I protected FA

N3 - Cerulean, Venmar, Flipping Awesome, chamber, Zdenek
I can't find the PM... I think I must have sent Faraday an AIM message or something. I'm pretty sure I protected FA but can't tell you for certain.

N4 - Everyone in the game
Protected Reck

N5 - I think I deleted the PM that had the available players.
Protected Reck

In other news my doc is still restricted to people who haven't been the third vote on a wagon. I'll show you the lists when I have real internet, but the "why didnt he do x" is a dumb game because not everyone was on the table every night
and I was protecting Reck because to be perfectly honest I felt he was more in danger of being NKd at that point in the game than a slot that relies heavily on meta. Reck is a well respected player, regardless of his tilt this game, and I figured that he would be a likely "well... let's kill the best player alive" choice. And if he'd been available I probably would have investigated him as well.

I don't get your N2 action choice. I thought Plessiez was pretty obvtown after the lynch on Kanye and seemed like a very likely kill. I'm also not sure why you'd pick us to protect over Cerulean, Chamber, and Zdenek on N3 as they were certainly more town and Cerulean was definitely a more competent player. I also don't understand why you chose Reck N4 when you Zdenek was incredibly obvtown. Also, this is important:

did you not say that Zdenek can laser through scumteams and you wanted to give him space to do that? You were threatened enough by Zdenek in Wicked that you wanted him dead N1. Zdenek was obvtown here. Why have you been ignoring him as a choice of a protection target?

[Flipping Awesome]

Do you think either chamber or Cerulean are scum? Or NS? I appreciate the sentiment and I wish I could believe it were true, but there aren't alot of options for it here, so I don't know who those needlers would be.

I'm reading chamber as town. I thought Cerulean's early posts were incredibly scummy, but they've been towntelling lately. I could absolutely support a Cerulean wagon though.

NS I could vote just for policy tbqh.

Also, why investigate us N1 over NobodySpecial who you said you could vote just outof policy (meaning you think it is going to be difficult to get a read on him)?

[Flipping Awesome]

Okay, but why did you never protect Zdenek?

[Flipping Awesome]

I'm probably going to roll with a Reck lynch.

I won't be here for deadline because I don't think I could wake up that early. I am somewhat conflicted on whether I want Plum to extend the deadline. I'm impatient and don't feel like prolonging mafia day phases forever and at some point, I think people should just get their shit together and vote someone but then again, I'm not sure who I want to lynch.

[Flipping Awesome]

Tammy, I read through your VCA. The biggest takeaway for me is that I agree that UT is a busser which makes me think Reck and UT aren't partnered together and I'd be quite surprised if they were. If UT is scum, he wouldn't put himself out there to townread his buddy as much as he has townread Reck in this game.

Plum, your read changes make a lot more sense now that I know that you've been discussing stuff with Shadoweh.

I still don't know who makes sense as a team. I don't think it is Reck/UT and I don't think it is Plum/UT. If UT is scum, it has got to be with NS. But that doesn't make sense as UT wouldn't leave Zdenek alive over Shadoweh. The nk's suggest something sinister is going on behind the scenes and a skilled manipulator is pulling the strings.

I am analyzing and re-analyzing all the scenarios and bottomline is that I can't plausibly see how the game makes sense with Reck as town. It could be Plum/Skrew but I doubt it.

I don't have awesome reasoning for voting Reck but I do think that the way he approached the Kanye wagon felt scummy and the switch onto Nero Cain and insistence that Nero Cain be hammered.

VOTE: xReckonerx

[Flipping Awesome]

Actually, Plum if you get on before the deadline, could you extend it please? I won't unvote because I doubt I'll wake up by then and I want someone to be able to hammer in case you are not here but if you are, then go on and extend it. Even if we don't use the full 48 hours, I'm not ready to lynch just yet.

Tammy, does the game make sense to you at this point? How sure are you that it is Reck? You said you were reading Plum as town and that you won't vote Skrew, and unless you changed your mind, you were reading UT as town too. But someone is scum and I want to sort that out before we end the day.

[Flipping Awesome]

fuckin fine

unvote, vote: Katsuki

After all the stuff you said about Katsuki being a bad lynch, you finally wind up voting for Katsuki?

[Flipping Awesome]

The thing is though UT doesn't make sense as scum with Reck (Nero, you should really, really meta UT to see how much he busses) *inb4 Reck hates me some more for using meta*

I'm pretty confident at this point that they are not the remaining scum, not together. I guess one of them could be.

[Flipping Awesome]

Reck/Skrew

- NS's replace out. I guess it is possible Reck is pissed off at NS genuinely because he is letting his team down but I don't think so.

Reck/UT

- Doesn't fit in with how UT interacts with buddies. I've searched through several UT games and this would be an unprecedented level of buddying from UT towards his scumpartner if that's the case.

UT/Plum

- D2 interactions don't make sense.

Skrew/Plum

- I don't really think it is Skrew/Plum because it would be an odd move for Plum to open up by pushing on a buddy and retracting it so awkwardly.
UT/Skrew
Reck/Plum

I don't find any reason to discount the last two. Plum's late push on Reck for being on the "wrong wagons" and not voting him at any point and now pushing for a Skrew lynch means I can't rule out Reck/Plum. Individually, I don't think it is impossible and neither have posted anything that is unfakeable. UT/Skrew is a little less likely and I doubt UT would go say he was fine with policy-lynching NS.

Reck/Plum is really the only pairing I wouldn't be surprised to see. I'm going over the game where Kanye, Reck and Plum were scum partners to see how their interactions matches to here (*inb4 Reck hates me even more*).

[Flipping Awesome]

Who should we lynch next?

[Flipping Awesome]

I'm assuming that's a scum claim so that's cool.

[Flipping Awesome]

If you are town, that's just a dick move since I would have re-evaluated everything. I may have eventually voted you, sure but it would have at least given more info.

[Flipping Awesome]

I actually didn't sleep well last night and had a bad dream where Cerulean was scum and everyone in the dead thread was yelling at me:

F-16: Damnit, Cerulean were scum after all. I wish I wasn't swayed by Tammy's posts
Tierce: Cerulean was obviously scum, you let your emotions cloud your play
Faraday: Lol, I don't know how F-16 was fooled so easily, Tammy doesn't have a scumgame
Ffery: F-16 thinks he can actually read Tammy, course corrections need to be made
Katsuki: We were relying on you to win the game
Tim Howard: We were right all along about them
F-16: Sorry for letting you guys down. I did find some things off about Cerulean. The fact that Empire voted Plum D1 made me think it was a bus that he had no intention of seeing through. But Tammy made a bunch of incredible posts and successfully manipulated me. She knew that as long as brought up Tales and ATE'd, I'd never have the heart to vote her. Well played, scum. Congrats Tammy for carrying it through.

*Wakes up*

(What was I thinking. Reck is still alive and we're waiting on Plum to extend the deadline)
But yeah, I really did have a dream that this game ended that way.

[Flipping Awesome]

It was a silly dream though. I don't really think that's how the game makes sense.

[Flipping Awesome]

On a more serious note, none of Plum's posts feel unfakeable and they all make logical sense but I'm just not feeling that she's blatantly town. If Reck is scum, I think she's the buddy. If Reck is town, I'm thinking it is UT/Skrew because Plum/Skrew and Plum/UT don't make any sense.