Hmm. It would seem I was mistaken; I did not reference serial killers on day one. It was only after the confirmation of multiball that I provided my reasoning. It begins here.
In post 1590, Aunt Jemina wrote:It should be noted about moderator meta that the daykiller is almost certainly a vigilante. Kill flavors are consistent for factions, thus the Squirly and Thaddy kills come from sources different from the Sonny slot's shots. It should also be noted that Jason has a heavy tendency to favor asymmetric scumteams: a larger 4p scumteam that is weaker vs. a smaller 3p scumteam that is stronger. Given the flips have been Marvel Villains and the flavor is invaders from a universe outside of Marvel, and also given that both flipped Marvel Villains have been power roles, it is an assurance that the Marvel Villains are a scumteam of three (down to one), against a scumteam of four that has yet to be identified.
It is also possible that we have a serial killer in addition to the vigilante, and that there was a kill not listed last night that failed.
A quick skim of my iso (I am sure there are many more mentions not caught) shows these as well.
--this is admittedly a bit of a weaker read, based mainly off of this old lady's instinct. I would not know which faction of scum they could belong to. It could be either, or it could even be serial killer, but I feel as if they are not town. I simply do not know how.
In post 1763, Chandra Nalaar wrote:I think I'm looking at a lynch pool of {vezok, PV, USBslot, beast} right now. I should flip through those players again.
There is an absolute minimum of five scum left in the game right now, with the possibility of six. (One Marvel Villain, a serial killer, and four of the unidentified faction.) So even if your list is correct, you need one more, and I would heavily recommend a second.
I actually think her lynch will give us a lot of information. There are some great associatives in connection with her.
Name them. What do we get from a Vinny town-flip? What do we get if Vinny flips last Marvel Villain? (And if you try to speculate four Marvel Villains, my vote never leaves you for the entirety of the game.) What do we get if Vinny flips serial killer? What do we get if Vinny flips the currently-unrevealed mafia faction?
If you do not have an answer for each (although there is admittedly overlap), then you're lying. (Rather, telling the truth, from a specific perspective: that of a scum player who already knows more.)
In post 1895, Chandra Nalaar wrote:I don't think 3-3-1-X is completely out of the question either, but if there's an SK it's almost certainly Metal Sonic.
No, deary. Sonny's shots do not come from a serial killer. Aside from play making it unlikely (lashy is no Tammy pressured to claim; he claimed willingly and without hesitation as a newer player), setups jason have run since then have nearly-always possessed a dayvig,
especially
in multiball.
(This one doesn't really even count, as it is defending against Sonny being a serial killer rather than speculating on a serial killer.)
Do not be a smartass, deary. You know that I meant what information would be gained. You specifically said that a Vinny lynch would generate great associatives. When I questioned you on what they are, you give this. For someone claiming it would gain information, you seem to be awfully hesitant to say what that information would be.
The most productive answer you gave was for the serial killer question...
when the presence of a serial killer is not even confirmed, and was asked more as a hypothetical
. Thus, your best answer was for the least-relevant and least-probable scenario.
We think Viomi and ZZZX are on the other scum team.
Odd that both yourself and Joshy have made this claim. I am finding it a far more likely hypothesis that you are scum together and legitimately scumreading Vinny and Zexxy, but think them to be the marvel villain and a serial killer.
(I would like to note that I have added emphasis here.)
In post 2203, Aunt Jemina wrote:I am increasingly growing into the mindset that beasty is in fact sour, but is alone (perhaps a serial killer), and that I should pursue a BulbyFenny/Joshy/Grinny/Kitty team with vezzy as the other lone scum.
In post 2276, Aunt Jemina wrote:The vig happens to be the player with the strongest townread on Zexxy, deary. You can always request the scum (or perhaps a serial killer) take him out, but he is not dying by town hands. Least of all while I still draw breath.
Ragey is also moving down into the waffles zone, out of concern that he may be a serial killer. I do not feel as if he is group scum. If a serial killer were to exist, it is a strong possibility that he could be it, given his play thusfar this game. Yet this is something to not be concerned about unless the existence of a serial killer has been proven.
In post 2808, vezokpiraka wrote:How dumb can you be to vote for me?
I've led wagons on both scum factions. I didn't even think of joining cws. Unless you think I'm an incredible busser please get your head out of your ass and put me in your solid town reads.
Playing Mephisto's advocate, deary, there is still the significant chance that there is a serial killer present in the game, and you could in fact be that.
(I would like to add that playing devil's advocate means bringing up a possibility that is from an alternative point of view, usually not in line with that of the one saying those words.)
These ones are not even placing focus on the existence of a serial killer. Merely addressing the possibility.
In post 3014, Aunt Jemina wrote:When it comes to a serial killer outted, or the last member of a scumteam that outs themselves, I am a
very
strong advocate of leashing them.
In post 3018, Aunt Jemina wrote:Redscum kill who they please. If there's only two kills, Tussy claims that the second kill source isn't her, but rather, a serial killer, and that her kill on the target town selected did not go through. Or perhaps she admits to controlling a kill (regardless of whether it belongs to her or not) and invents reasons for having done so. In either case, this is a gambit in which there is little drawback and much to gain, as it keeps her alive for longer while hiding her scumbuddies from us.
In post 3020, Titus wrote:If I am redscum (which I am according to AJ), my life is solely at the hands of the true Marvel. There's no way of talking out of things if there is a Marvel scum kill that isn't the target.
Marvel scum likely will not kill you, as it is beneficial for them to have you alive for it serves as a smokescreen for themselves as well. They will similarly not be attempting to lynch you, as that would reveal themselves. If I were Marvel scum, I would kill without thought to your faction, continuing to target those who I pleased to target. It would be largely akin to being a serial killer, and part of playing a long game is to play conservatively...thus, not do the town's work for them by killing you and also not risking revealing oneself via advocating a lynch.
Fortunately, I happen to be town, thus, can do my job and lynch scum.
In post 3108, Aunt Jemina wrote:I would like to additionally point out that in the last jason multiball game, there were two scum claims during the game. One was my own: I was caught by a role, thus, there was no escaping the lynch by play. I gave the town everything I knew, and explained my reads and where they come from when I was scum.
The second was, as mentioned, a scum player being wagoned up: no role result on him. He claimed scum because it was beneficial to his scum faction for him to do so, not out of desperation, but because it served their agenda. (In that case, it was not him claiming to be the serial killer or the smaller faction, but rather, truthfully claiming to be his own faction yet with the knowledge of who the serial killer was. He of course was lying, but it served as bait to out the real serial killer and got town mislynched as a result.) Tussy's claim is not the former; it is the latter. If I have the time, I may pull up the quotations to demonstrate.
These also do not even count because they are all talking theory behind serial killers. Of which, I have intimate exposure to.
In post 3364, Aunt Jemina wrote:Beasty, bless his heart, is sweet aside from the chance of a serial killer.
Yes, deary. It is a vital distinction to be made.
There are players this game who could be sour yet do not have bad interactions with one scumteam.
There are players this game who could be sour yet do not have bad interactions with either scumteam.
There are players this game who I see as sweet lacking bad interactions with one scumteam.
There are players this game who I see as sweet lacking bad interactions with either scumteam.
I am more familiar with jason moderator meta than you are.
There is a possibility of a serial killer in the game
. To say otherwise is ignorance.
I am not saying there is a serial killer in the game
. Nor am I positing that if there was one, beasty would be a candidate. I am simply stating he is not groupscum. And lacking the confirmed presence of a serial killer, that makes him far more likely to be town.
Note that at this point, it has been continuously fading. It started out as near-certainty. It was reduced to probability. It became a mere possibility by this point in the game. I was beginning to think it a severe improbability, even, as we continued to have time and time again a mere two kills. This is not the progression of someone who knows a serial killer exists. It is the progression of a sweet player who is a bit cautious and slow to jump towards conclusions prematurely.
In post 1620, Metal Sonic wrote:But there are 2 scum teams. So there cannot be a sk. Usually it is only 1 scum team and 1 sk, or just 2 scum teams
Jason's last game had two scumteams, a vig, and a serial killer. It is not impossible he did the same this game. Quite the opposite, it is incredibly probable. There are certainly two scumteams, so the existence of a serial killer is not a given, but it is still something more likely than unlikely.
In post 1850, Josh_B wrote:I'm seeing others say its 3 on one team and 4 on the other team, but is 4 and 4 an option?
It is not.
What do you guys think about a third faction?
A serial killer is not only possible, but probable, however, its existence is not yet proven and thus, not worth worrying about at this time. If there is a serial killer, it is a 4-3-1-17 game; if there is not, it is a 4-3-18 game.
Encryptor and JailKeeper are strong roles?
Incredibly. This is especially true if the final Marvel Villain is also a strong power role. Last time I was in a jason game like this, I was a member of the smaller scumteam, and our powers were a Godfather (that was also a Ninja), Watcher, and Roleblocker (with free daychat), if this old lady's memory holds. Having daychat and a roleblock/doctor makes them already strong.
Nightkills can and often will fail, deary. What is important is flavor behind kills. Each faction will always have the same kill flavor. The vig kill will not differ between day or night. A serial killer flavor will be kept consistent. A mafia team's kill flavor will always be the same. "Died of multiple wounds" will always be death from multiple sources. A serial killer in the game is quite possible if one kill source did not succeed. If another flavor (that is not "died of multiple wounds") appears night two, then we have confirmation even if there are the same or reduced numbers of nightkills. Thus, something to keep an eye on, but not something to worry about until after it has been confirmed.
In post 1859, pidgey wrote:Josh b I THINK 4v4vtown is unbalanced, probably 3v3vtown from what ive seen in jason games.
In post 1916, Josh_B wrote:4 vs 3. Ok. It doesn't change the possibility that MUVA is the team of 4.
The three are going to be the marvel villains not only off of roles, but off of flavor. The marvel villains are a part of the marvel universe. This game's flavor is specifically about invaders from outside the universe, which are almost assuredly the unflipped scumteam. Jason isn't going to make the larger scumteam be marvel villains and have the smaller scumteam be from outside. It is similar to Dr. Who; the Time Lords are not nearly as villainous as Daleks, thus, were smaller and more powerful.
I was there to witness the balance. I know my Jason mod meta better than anyone else. There are four unflipped of one scumteam, and one marvel villain left.
In post 1927, Nero Cain wrote:I don't think MS' shots clear him and I don't think that his claiming clears him. Mod meta
might
make him less likely to be an sk but a 3v3v19 game seems townsided and I'm not sold on the 3 and 4 man scum teams.
Alright, then, deary. Sonny is town for a combination of factors.
Sonny's second shot, though similar to lashy's in that it was impulsive, showed that he was not saving onto it to make a play as scum. He shot when pressured to shoot, and that is a reaction more indicative of town (or at worst a serial killer).
Recent moderator meta
strongly
favors day shooters being town-aligned in jason games.
That same moderator meta specifies that the day shooter being town-aligned is in-flavor a bit morally ambiguous. Last game, The Master was the day-vigilante; this game, Sonny's claim is of a similar vein.
If another source of kills shows up, it confirms that the game possesses two scum, a serial killer, and a vigilante. A town vig seeing Sonny having claimed would have either shot Sonny or been heavily suspicious of him; that has not happened. Thus, if a third source of kills appears during the night, they belong to a serial killer and both mafia factions, with the day-killer being the vigilante.
These serve as excellent posts showing my reasons for having brought a serial killer up.
If you are going to attempt to lynch me for being too smart, that is your error. If you want to lynch scum, then start looking for actual scum. Do tell me another factor:
If I am scum, what good does bringing up the possible existence of a serial killer do me if I know one to be present?
It invokes the precise reaction that players are giving me--suspicion. It holds no benefit, as the paranoia generated is minimal if existing at all, and I get no town credit for having said such. If you think me remotely competent (one need merely look at my scum games to confirm that I am; my scumteam earned a scummie nomination for good cause), it is required that you think of my play as going through the risk analysis for my actions. Consistently bringing up the possibility of a serial killer is likely to
draw the attention of the serial killer
, in a very bad way. If the serial killer flips, it will draw the attention of the town. Name the benefit in me having said as much, for I see nothing short of "maybe for the wifom?" providing so much as a possible (yet alone, plausible) answer.
Whereas a player who has been playing to a town wincon has every reason to mention it. I have firmly believed myself to be a target for nightkills since the very beginning of the game, and thus, have been unafraid to speak my mind. It draws attention from the serial killer, which would cause them to nightkill me over players who are confirmed town. It additionally allows the town to heed my warning were I to suddenly die, and hold caution, paying attention to what I have said so that they are able to realize I may have been correct.
Now, if you think me scum off of my play rather than my intelligence, then present a case. I will do my best to put your concerns at ease. If you think me sour after even that, then I may claim to hasten the speed of my death. But you are making a
severe
mistake if you continue pushing this line of inquiry. I will die along with other confirmed town players in due time. You have my word on that. The scum cannot let me live if they wish to win.
In post 3565, Chandra Nalaar wrote:There have been visibly two kill methods all game.
You have been aware of this fact.
Therefore I am unable to believe that you leaped to the conclusion there was an SK without having any basis. It is simply illogical.
And again. Were I scum, there is only a 33% chance I would be aware of a serial killer's confirmed existence come D2. If I were to belong to either of the factions that killed successfully, then I would be unaware the entire time.
If you read the quotes I have brought up, they demonstrate my basis:
extensive
moderator meta exposure, along with much experience in the realm of setup design. I know jason as a moderator intimately. I know how he designs his setups. DC Universe had two scumteams and a serial killer. Dr. Who had two scumteams and a serial killer. You say that I had no logical basis. But I had past experience teaching me I was correct. And as it turned out, I was.
Sometimes, you meet a player who is simply that knowledgeable and skilled. Sometimes, you meet a player whose uncannily-good accuracy was in fact simply their natural skill. And if you refuse to trust me, then I do swear, I will be vindicated when you realize your error and that what I said was true the whole time. I have played to a town wincon, not a scum wincon. The knowledge I impart comes not from a sour player, but from a skilled old lady that has more experience than any player here. Were you to successfully lynch me, tomorrow you would end up likely with 9 alive, 3 of them scum, and most probably with no possible leads: with the potential of two kills, effectively lylo.
This is something that requires trust, I am quite aware. But you can trust my deductive skills to not come from a sinister source.
In post 3567, Chandra Nalaar wrote:I guess I wouldn't be *completely* uncomfortable with unvoting you with the understanding that you not be allowed to live to lylo under any circumstances, MAYBE.
Have you missed the part where I have made it explicit that scum cannot afford to let me live until lylo? Particularly true now, the day before potential lylo. (I will treat the game as possessing two DC scum for caution's sake.)
In post 3569, Chandra Nalaar wrote:And I've thought you had a weird edge to your posts, like, literally all game, but I could never actually explain it.
This has been as mentioned a deliberate effort on my part to maintain a more reserved posting style. As with my anonymity, I value it more than I value my life. This is a principle not worth compromising, as it violates the entire reason I have taken to this style.
Aside from the deliberate alteration to my naturally-aggressive playstyle (which you may have perhaps caught a glimpse of on day two to my shame) into a more reserved cautious one (an alteration you can observe in almost all my completed games), I have yet to remember a reason presented for me to be scummy. I cannot defend against an accusation that I know not the source of.
Can you guys lynch me so that I don't have to replace out? I've been playing this game since April, I would hate to see it not be a completed game. I'm going to AT starting tomorrow.
Mercy LYNCH
Or scum if you promise to NK me, I'll be ok with that too.
Actually, I think there's enough input that either Displaced or AuntJ can be lynched today, What do you guys think about that? Displaced did a really good job at pointing at other players (none of which were MUVA). Someone besides AuntJ knows why there has only been one Scum kill up to this point, or she's Scum. But we are going to need all the town players to get in here and talk about it.
In post 3582, Josh_B wrote:Can you guys lynch me so that I don't have to replace out? I've been playing this game since April, I would hate to see it not be a completed game. I'm going to AT starting tomorrow.
Mercy LYNCH
Or scum if you promise to NK me, I'll be ok with that too.
In post 3584, Josh_B wrote:Actually, I think there's enough input that either Displaced or AuntJ can be lynched today, What do you guys think about that? Displaced did a really good job at pointing at other players (none of which were MUVA). Someone besides AuntJ knows why there has only been one Scum kill up to this point, or she's Scum. But we are going to need all the town players to get in here and talk about it.
I'm good with either one, I suppose. I really wanted a color flip from Moz.
Would prefer displaced over AuntJ.
Also need to check, because I think someone did the "cleared status" list I asked for yester-game-day.
In post 3579, Aunt Jemina wrote:Have you missed the part where I have made it explicit that scum cannot afford to let me live until lylo? Particularly true now, the day before potential lylo. (I will treat the game as possessing two DC scum for caution's sake.)
You keep saying this but I still don't know what it means
In post 3584, Josh_B wrote:Actually, I think there's enough input that either Displaced or AuntJ can be lynched today, What do you guys think about that? Displaced did a really good job at pointing at other players (none of which were MUVA). Someone besides AuntJ knows why there has only been one Scum kill up to this point, or she's Scum. But we are going to need all the town players to get in here and talk about it.
I'm good with either one, I suppose. I really wanted a color flip from Moz.
Would prefer displaced over AuntJ.
Also need to check, because I think someone did the "cleared status" list I asked for yester-game-day.
The rest:
4 vezokpiraka- I have no real read here
5 Nero Cain- probably town
6 Aunt Jemina*- had better claim psychologist or something because otherwise I will probably want to lynch her
7 Josh_B*- probably town
11 PeregrineV- ???
22 beastcharizard- ???
25 displaced*- ???
^This sort of makes me want a massclaim from the remaining players?
In post 3589, Chandra Nalaar wrote:Aunt J, who is actually scum? You are encouraged to choose vezok, displaced, PV, and/or beast.
What happened to me not being either scum because I am stupid and forgot about the encryptors? I believe you were one of the people who said I couldn't be either because of it. What changed?
I don't think I said that, though I do give it some credence. What happened is that I forget about it every single time I go back and start trying to POE again.
The rest:
4 vezokpiraka- I have no real read here
5 Nero Cain- probably town
6 Aunt Jemina*- had better claim psychologist or something because otherwise I will probably want to lynch her
7 Josh_B*- probably town
11 PeregrineV- ???
22 beastcharizard- ???
25 displaced*- ???
^This sort of makes me want a massclaim from the remaining players?
I actually think now is a good time for Mass Claiming Characters. I'll go first or last, or in the middle, whichever is fine by me. Cabd, just to get it started.
Cabd, just to get it started.
Cabd, just to get it started.