Reread through the first 15 pages of the game, I should have more words by the end of the night but I hit on something and I'm going to reck's place soon so I'm just gonna talk about that for a bit and then theres like 2 sentences of notes at the end about N_M's earlier posts.
Grib made this post about primarily akane on page 15
In post 366, Grib wrote:I’ve been quietly sitting on the idea of scum!Akane only for a little while. Normally I don’t try to bother finding multiple scum at once because I just end up confusing myself with possible wine scenarios, but I was really bored. Really bored. I’m gonna go all out with this post, because I need something to do.
First, my thoughts on Akane via her ISO (featuring special guest, Bins!):
Spoiler: Akane
4: Her first vote is for Bins. Innocent enough. Her advocating on saving the doors is only bad if it’s proven the scums’ kills are restricted to rooms/groups.
12: Switches her RVS for...some reason. 34 questioned her on this as well.
20: Claims she switched her vote because she liked Bins’ reaction to her RVS. Which. I dunno, feels really fake. Akane didn’t ask anything particularly difficult, there isn’t really much to be nervous about in this context.
Of course this could just be waved away with “oh it was just a random vote who cares?” but hhh.
81: This is the first post that tipped me on a reread, after I’d been posting for a couple pages. She criticizes 34 for unvoting someone who was at L-1 (what?). And then she goes on about how he should have voted for someone else, or laid out some reads -- in fact, nearly half of the second paragraph could apply presently to Bins. I’m still waiting for Akane to catch up and explain her gut townread on her.
105: Dismisses 34’s above posts because AtE. I only find it scummy because she dismissed all three posts that way. She could have at least addressed the parts of the posts that weren’t AtE.
108: Says 34 is gunking up the thread with his emotions. Bins has been gunking the thread with pure void, but it’s totes okay when she does it.
142: Not gonna lie, this is my favorite part. Akane asks Bins why she still has her vote parked on NM, and asks for her reads. Bins replies with “no reason” (and doesn’t unvote, even though she just stated her vote is dead and useless) and that she’ll “address her reads tomorrow” (she in fact does the opposite of that, by unvoting AND saying she has nothing right after Quil posted a case against Reckoner).
Akane of course addresses this steaming pile of bullshit in her next pos--oh. Wait. She doesn’t readdress this. Ever. In fact, I think this is actually the last time Akane has ever spoken directly to Bins.
Of course everyone is guilty of letting Bins cruise, except Parama, I guess. It’s just more damning for Akane because she’s the one who asked and didn’t follow up.
204: Asks NM for a read on Bins. Because? Who knows. I'm guessing she's trying to justify her gut townread here, by seeing if anyone else is townreading her.
((Also, just kidding -- Akane does talk to Bins in 310, but it’s a mechanics question so it doesn’t really count.))
Akane then engages Reckoner in some bullshit meta/identity argument, clogging up the thread and being a distracting mess.
And now we’re mostly back to the present. That was fun.
And then other questions:
Spoiler: Parama
My townread of Parama mostly stems from how I feel about the way he went about putting someone at L-1 so early, and how he responded to Jackel pointing it out. His posts are very pro-town and I like his responses/interactions.
The only thing about him that’s been bothering me is his apparent lack of knowledge of how his ability worked earlier in the thread, but I can’t see how that would be alignment indicative so eh.
Spoiler: Reckoner/Flames
I like town!Reckoner for lack of self-awareness in 18. This post reads genuine as a townie who is sure the game will be over long before the 9 Day limit with so few players. It's safe to assume scum know exactly how their NK will function w/r/t the door mechanic. Admittedly, that's all I have for him, because the quality of his posts just go down from there.
To be honest, for a lot of my reads I assume that if a person is scum, they wouldn't do their partner the disservice of, say, throwing a huge fit and drawing so much attention to yourself. Or hardcore lurking out the game, which is a (or rather, the) reason I'm townreading Flames. Lurking is a little difficult to work with, unless it's a huge scumtell for the person.
Of course these are subject to change, but I'm perfectly okay with them for the moment.
I need a nap.
The thing I noticed from that is that Akane seemed like she was paying a lot of attention to what was going on around N_M but didn't have much to say about N_M himself- she has a response to his points on her and a weak read on him here in #209 (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p6145731) but it seems strange to me that she would be that attentive of him when he doesn't seem like someone she's particularly interested in at the time
there's also N_M's vote after that on Grib- he was voting Akane before that but pointing out reck as *sketchy on the wagon* (which is a towntell for reck imo, also shut up reck i know it's not really relevant given your role junk), and it feels like to me he was looking for a reason to get off of the wagon and do something that would actually be useful for him.
And yes this does ignore what I said earlier about me thinking that akane was very likely town for her push on reck. but pretty much everyone in the game has at least one really strong reason to be town imo aside from really just me and parama at this point, and Parama has several minor ones I think
Bins is absolutely my strongest town read, I like what she posted in the QT last night and I REALLY really don't think she would claim what she did and how she did as scum, and a scum vanilla cop is pretty unlikely anyway given the lack of kills from the scumteam (and I don't think that claim is made up.) Her thinking that she's clearing me at the beginning of today is not something coming from scum and if you lynch her after I'm dead I'll probably despise life for a while afterwards so don't do that please.
Quil/Bulge the replace out does make a lot more sense as town than scum to me
Reck has role junk and N_M's willingness to lynch him
And Grib was the choice for N_M's vengeful kill- although he was a very likely PR given his actions reck had already claimed and if I'm remembering the situation correctly akane wasn't unlikely to be a PR either and was much more widely town-read, pretty much the only thing Grib had going for him was his actions in regards to him having a PR and was read as null by most everyone aside from that. I think Grib was the best choice for N_M to vengekill there because of him having a PR AND his likeliness to push on Akane earlier and him pointing out Akane's mentions of N_M early game already.
VOTE: Akane
I'll be around again and probably posting a bit more later tonight, below this are the two little notes that I made while reading over stuff. If I get lynched before I get back then I really think that Akane and Parama should be lynched - I'd say that it would probably win the game for us but something a little strange setup-wise or in the scum decisions has to be happening for reck's role to exist in a game with no scum kills so far except the vengekill, and a 3rd scum would actually make sense here. It is possible that reck and akane are scum together I guess but I don't think it's worth going into that possibility right now.
In post 65, Not_Mafia wrote:Parama's out of nowhere aggression seems odd aswell, not sure if it's just a playstyle thing
this came right after (3 min after) his post expressing suspicion of akane, think it's more likely that it's a comment on town than scum, if him and parama were scum together I tihnk he'd pay more attention to him and have his thoughts on parama be with the akane post instead of being an off-hand comment afterwards
his comment on parama's doublevote maybe being a hammer could be worth looking at too but I don't see a reason to dismiss the possibility of theoretical parama-scum telling him to fake it for an interaction between them that points to them not being scum together
If it means anything, I'll paraphrase some stuff Akane said in Night 1's QT. Because she was discussing the possibility of a Grib/NM scumteam w/ Parama, also a Reck/NM scumteam. However, she did have a post where she explained a townread on NM. In response to my read on him, she says that she's paranoid as well because I was saying that I was.
That was pretty town IMO. Last remaining scum Gamma would've given up and not bothered.
Who would you rather lynch then? Are you just ignoring all the associative tells between Jackel/Gamma and NM? Did I not just write a huuuuuuuuuuuuge thing in the QT last Night about that?
Gamma fighting to live actually makes a lot of sense if it's 4:2 right now. They only need two, maybe even only one mislynch (if they're sitting on a killing power as you suggested in the QT last Night). I know this is pretty much your dream scenario since you've been hating on me all game and Gamma's post is attacking me, but one content post you like doesn't erase a whole game full of tells and even
you
should be able to realize that through your bias if you're not scum.
gamma's content is fine I guess but the validity of it only matters if he's not scum. he could make a post calling out the remaining scum with a perfect case that nobody could argue against and I'd probably still lynch him because the associative tells are too strong to ignore.
but I'd like to see him post more just in case he's town.
That was pretty town IMO. Last remaining scum Gamma would've given up and not bothered.
Who would you rather lynch then? Are you just ignoring all the associative tells between Jackel/Gamma and NM? Did I not just write a huuuuuuuuuuuuge thing in the QT last Night about that?
Gamma fighting to live actually makes a lot of sense if it's 4:2 right now. They only need two, maybe even only one mislynch (if they're sitting on a killing power as you suggested in the QT last Night). I know this is pretty much your dream scenario since you've been hating on me all game and Gamma's post is attacking me, but one content post you like doesn't erase a whole game full of tells and even
you
should be able to realize that through your bias if you're not scum.
VOTE: Gamma
The game starting out as 6:3 only makes sense if mafia have no kills aside from the vengeful mafia, them winning after a second mislynch would be really unbalanced given that scum could just claim a guilty on someone after night 1 and then win the game.
also there's a quote about complex problems and solutions that are simple and wrong but i'll feel like a douchebag if i actually post it
reck i would legitimately rather be lynched at this points than bins because im pretty confident bins getting lynched is just her flipping town then me getting lynched the next day anyway
want to say more to akane in response but really it just boils down to the tells not meaning anything if they're incorrect. like im pretty sure in a situation where the options for lynch are me my scumbuddy and a 3rd party I don't say that neither of them really looks like scum but i guess i'll vote non-scumbuddy instead of bussing, but self-metas generally pretty garbage for having other people read you so how about this instead
Why do you think N_M chose to kill Grib over anyone else?
lynching Bins or Bulge at this point is utterly ridiculous, odds are NM would still be alive if Bins hadn't brought him up in our QT N1, and there's like a whole mountain of association tells that basically confirm Bulge as town
lynching Reck or Akane is also pretty dumb to do, IMO. Not as ridiculous, but still really bad
like I'm pretty damn sure I'm gonna end up lynched tomorrow if Gamma's town, which might be for the better since I don't want to have to sift through everything to figure out which of those four could be scum if Gamma isn't