Micro 381 - 999 Mafia (Nonary Game Complete)

[The Bulge]

1500!

I'd be kinda okay with an Akane lynch actually. Let me ISO her vs N_M.

[Bins]

uuurrgh.

[Akane Kurashiki]

Reck, what the fuck happened between 1476 and 1492?

[Gammagooey]

uuurrgh.

yes this game is hard and you're probably still worried that i'm scum and wooing everyone with content and words

but i'm town so you can worry about other things instead :3

like i'd actually really like to know more detail on people's thoughts on akane and parama and why they think that they're *alignment*

[Bins]

you're making me paranoid of everything i believed in

[xRECKONERx]

Reck, what the fuck happened between 1476 and 1492?

Uh what the fuck are you talking about

[Gammagooey]

you're making me paranoid of everything i believed in

yeap

if you look back at jackal's play i think you'll find most of it looks town too

the only particularly noticeable thing i remember people saying about him/her was not mentioning n_m, which

is

something to be suspicious of but can (and i know did) happen with town, and I don't think it's too hard to see it that way given that N_M wasn't really a big topic of conversation before jackal left.

also
@reck- I probably know what you're gonna say already but why did you claim to be roleblocked d2 instead of just saying that you forgot?

[xRECKONERx]

Because that would almost definitely assure my lynch instead of giving me a chance to use my role.

[xRECKONERx]

Like, I fucked up... I thought if I claimed that, I would get lynched immediately. Claiming RB not only allowed me to survive the day and use my ability, but also gave me a chance to look for any suspicious reactions to my RB claim (since scum would know I was lying). I didn't find anything, off-hand, but maybe there's something there.

[Akane Kurashiki]

Reck, what the fuck happened between 1476 and 1492?

Uh what the fuck are you talking about

1476 sounds like you're denying what I said about the PM I was sent about you, 1492 sounds like you actually did get confirmed that what I've been saying is true. I'm confused by the transition there. Did you PM the mod again after 1476, or...?

[xRECKONERx]

1476 is literally me saying the mod won't confirm it himself

[Akane Kurashiki]

If that's the case, then I misread it, and also I now have even less of an understanding for why you voted and then unvoted me than I thought I did before. ?_?

[xRECKONERx]

Actually wait. Akane, the only way I'm scum is of one of two things is happening:

- I am a scum messenger, despite the fact we already had one messenger ability this game, and mine is confined by room when his wasn't.

- The mod is lying to you.

Which theory do you want to pursue?

[Akane Kurashiki]

Yeah, I thought you were voting me because you didn't believe me when I said my PM doesn't actually confirm you, and then backed off in 1492 because you figured out I was telling the truth. If you knew earlier than that, I don't even know what we were fighting about. Which I guess could sum up most of our arguments in this game actually.

[Parama]

I'll get back to posting here eventually, soonish, dunno
not lynching Gamma literally makes no sense to me though

[xRECKONERx]

I'll get back to posting here eventually, soonish, dunno
not lynching Gamma literally makes no sense to me though

Ok, he's giving off townish vibes, does that make sense to you now?

[Parama]

everyone else gives off more townvibes to me

except maybe you but that's normal

so???

[Gammagooey]

math

1-vote: Gammagooey, Bins, The Bulge

everyone else gives off more townvibes to me

except maybe you but that's normal

so???

so post about it

go into detail on why you think the bulge/N_M interaction isn't faked

or make a guess at something and go through a chunk of the game with that assumption in mind and see what makes sense and what doesn't

or meta me if you don't feel like actually going through

this

game at all even though meta is generally a real mediocre basis for things

but god fucking damn have I tried to get people to put in some content into the thread and posted enough thoughts for people to be able to read me and it isn't going to do shit if you and everyone else decide that their earlier insights and efforts were good enough and that you don't have to care about anything I'm saying.

[Akane Kurashiki]

I think part of the problem we're having is that those of us who've been here for the whole game are kind of fatigued by now and ready for it to be over. (Parama/Bins/Reck, feel free to yell at me if I'm wrong on that, but I don't think I am.) I could go on a rant about long deadlines killing enthusiasm for games but it's more appropriate for MD than here. That and we've been playing the whole game assuming 2 scum, but now there's a very real possibility that there's three, and I think that's killing morale.

I guess I'll paraphrase my thoughts on Jackel/Gamma from the QT since I don't think I've done that yet other than to say one sentence about associative tells. Keep in mind I was ONLY looking for associative tells so it's entirely possible I missed something for or against Gamma being scum based on something the slot did that didn't have anything to do with NM.

Spoiler: There's nothing new here for you if you are Reck or Parama, it's basically a reworded QT post 44.

- Points in gamma's favor:

- 233, Jackel makes a(n unbolded) door vote putting NM and Jackel in the same room. It's hard to say for certain since this is a unique mechanic but I generally feel like that's worthy of townpoints. I don't think scum would want to be in the same room together barring role reasons. This is a weaker point if there are actually three scum.

- 910: Gamma replaces in, saying why he doesn't think NM is scum. It's hard to evaluate someone's reasons for something when you know they're wrong, but his reasons seem to make sense at least.

- 1193 is actually a fair point (defending himself for being on Bulge wagon).

- Points against Gamma:

- Jackel replaces out at 844, the last time she even mentions NM is the door vote in 233. That alone wouldn't strike me as particularly incriminating except that she mentions literally everyone else, in most cases multiple times. I can't see any pro-town reason for just completely ignoring one player's existence. In roughly 600 posts, the mention-count is as follows: Reck x7, one as a response to him, Bins x5, two as a response to her, Parama x5, Akane x5, one as a response to me, Quil/Bulge x4, Grib x3, yonce x1, NM x0.


(Note: this is only counting one mention per post from 516 on; I think I also did it that way before that point but before that point I have record of it in the QT because that was when I noticed it in my readthrough so I'm not 100% sure my methods are consistent. However, point still stands even if the numbers are slightly off.)

- In 771, NM asks Jackel a question and she never responds (despite responding to several other posters, as mentioned above). More evidence onto the pile of Jackel completely ignoring NM.

- posts 1177 - 1181 are pretty much the only times the Gamma slot and NM interact (there's also some by Jackel around 76 - 80.) But these all follow the same pattern of not being anything very important, and there's a very different feel to it than how NM interacted with others (i.e. Bins). Also note a door vote putting NM and Gamma in separate rooms (touched on my theory on door votes earlier).

I'm not gonna break it down post by post but I haven't seen anything toDay from Gamma that's been strong enough to counteract the associative tells. Anyone can write up a case and anyone can push people to be more active. These are not town tells.

[Akane Kurashiki]

tl;dr of NM iso for good measure:

Bins is super town via associative tells and I found multiple reasons to think this throughout their two isos. 285 is a door vote putting NM in a room with Jackel and Quil, everyone else elsewhere, said what I thought of door votes earlier. 639 has very light possible bussing of Jackel. 640 made me think Bulge was town. 794 is slight town points to Bulge and Bins (door vote theory). Note that with all these door vote things I'm not counting something that was blatantly sheeping someone else's door vote, just votes the person made on their own. 1196 made me a bit paranoid about Bulge (I also took this opportunity in the iso to say something about how I didn't like Bulge's posts on replace-in) but I didn't think it outweighed some of the points in Bulge's favor (i.e. counterwagon to scum).

I also did an iso on Bins and came to the conclusion that Bins and NM are pretty much 100% not scum together, and an iso on Parama that I got through d1 on and didn't really glean much of anything new from. I have not been not-lazy enough to do an iso on Reck or Bulge.

[Akane Kurashiki]

^ Forgot to say this but that was paraphrasing QT posts too, still nothing new for Parama or Reck.

[Bins]

tl;dr of NM iso for good measure:

Bins is super town via associative tells and I found multiple reasons to think this throughout their two isos. 285 is a door vote putting NM in a room with Jackel and Quil, everyone else elsewhere, said what I thought of door votes earlier. 639 has very light possible bussing of Jackel. 640 made me think Bulge was town. 794 is slight town points to Bulge and Bins (door vote theory). Note that with all these door vote things I'm not counting something that was blatantly sheeping someone else's door vote, just votes the person made on their own. 1196 made me a bit paranoid about Bulge (I also took this opportunity in the iso to say something about how I didn't like Bulge's posts on replace-in) but I didn't think it outweighed some of the points in Bulge's favor (i.e. counterwagon to scum).

I also did an iso on Bins and came to the conclusion that Bins and NM are pretty much 100% not scum together, and an iso on Parama that I got through d1 on and didn't really glean much of anything new from. I have not been not-lazy enough to do an iso on Reck or Bulge.

I don't see why scum-Akane would make this post. .-.

[xRECKONERx]

She probably wouldn't, it's probably Parama or you. Or The Bulge.

It's actually really just not me, Gamma, or Akane at this point. Will vote and lynch anything else.

[Gammagooey]

i think akane makes the most sense as scum with N_M based on N_M's posts, don't really think the post bins quoted is unfakeable but Parama's unwillingness to consider anything aside from me has been gnawing at me more than a bit. like that thing i mentioned with him not being intentionally thick like in metamafia doesn't feel like it applies here anymore.

[Parama]

i'm sorry that you haven't done enough to change my mind? i'm sorry that association tells entirely outweigh the content you've posted? i'm sorry that scum can make good posts too so making good posts doesn't automatically make you town again?

I don't know why I'm scum simply because you haven't convinced me you're town. That isn't my job.